Saturday night in Houston, there will be a light heavyweight title tilt between Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson. However, to make that official, they must first step on the scale to make weight.
The event features 13 fights in all with many int…
Saturday night in Houston, there will be a light heavyweight title tilt between Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson. However, to make that official, they must first step on the scale to make weight.
The event features 13 fights in all with many intriguing and meaningful contests. The main card also has Jessica Eye vs. Julianna Pena, Ryan Bader vs. Rashad Evans, and Johny Hendricks vs. TyronWoodley. The stacked fight card should deliver great action, if all fighters come in prepared and on weight.
The UFC 192 weigh-ins begin at 5 p.m. ET, and Bleacher Report will chronicle the proceedings as they happen. Come back for full coverage when the fighters tip the scale.
The timing of Jon Jones’ plea bargain couldn’t have been any worse for Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson.
People were already looking down their noses at Saturday’s UFC 192 main event, when Cormier will face Gustafsson in the fi…
The timing of Jon Jones’ plea bargain couldn’t have been any worse for Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson.
People were already looking down their noses at Saturday’s UFC 192 main event, when Cormier will face Gustafsson in the first defense of his newly won and fiercely disputed light heavyweight title.
They were already saying this bout and that belt were a sham—and that was before Jones’ seemingly precarious legal snarl stemming from an April hit-and-run accident wrapped itself up in a neat little bow.
Jones skated out of the Albuquerque, New Mexico, district court on Tuesday with no jail time, no fine and no felony conviction after a judge accepted his compromise with prosecutors.
The criminal charges that forced the UFC to strip Jones of the title and put him on indefinite suspension are suddenly on the verge of being history. So long as he can complete a maximum 18-month sentence of supervised probation, he will be a free and unencumbered man. Conventional wisdom says it won’t take nearly that long for him to return to the Octagon.
So Cormier vs. Gustafsson—on shaky ground from the start—suddenly seems completely superfluous. A championship fight originally designed to move the division out of Jones’ shadow now shapes up as nothing more than a glorified No. 1 contender bout.
Because Jones has returned.
Almost.
Immediately following this week’s court appearance, the UFC announced it would fully review Jones’ plea deal before making a decision on his future. Really, though, there’s only one decision to make. So long as the greatest light heavyweight of all time is healthy and willing, there should be nothing stopping him from returning to active duty.
In other words, the moment this weekend when UFC President Dana White wraps the championship around somebody’s waist has already been ruined. We’ve preemptively hurtled it and—to paraphrase the great poet Bill Belichick—we’re on to Jones.
This weekend’s winner will likely receive nothing but scorn from MMA fans if he is anything but deferential and if he does anything other than immediately call out Jones. The only real prize to be won on this night will be a modicum of respect—and maybe the chance to rematch the man most everybody considers the rightful champion.
And, really, that’s not fair to either Cormier or Gustafsson.
Both have already lost to Jones but otherwise have given us no reason to dislike them. They didn’t do anything wrong here. All they did was go about the business of being two of the best 205-pounders in the world, reacting to and benefiting from situations that were beyond their control.
Cormier, who dropped a unanimous decision to Jones in January at UFC 182, was still thought of highly enough for entrance into a bout against Anthony Johnson for the newly vacated title at UFC 187. In that bout he weathered an early knockdown and battled back to claim the championship by third-round submission.
He proved himself to be the better-rounded mixed martial artist than the powerful Johnson and maybe a better MMA fighter than anyone in the division not named Bones. He has been unapologetic about his current standing as champ. He’s has no good reason to apologize, but his steadfastness hasn’t done his popularity any favors.
“I didn’t disqualify myself from competition, Jon did,” Cormier said at the postfight press conference the night he beat Johnson (via MMAFighting.com’s Chuck Mindenhall). “Jon’s the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. We all know that. But, he disqualified himself from this competition right now. So I am the champion.”
Cormier is a good guy and a great fighter, but so far people aren’t buying him as champion. A win over Gustafsson is vital for him to begin proving he’s more than just Jones’ understudy. It’s the first step on the only road that leads to him eventually shaking his runner-up reputation—the road that ends in a second bout with Jones.
Meanwhile, Gustafsson is regarded as the man to come closest to ending Jones’ four-year reign of terror over the 205-pound division. He pushed the champion to the limit in their meeting at UFC 165—a bout where many considered Jones lucky to emerge with a unanimous-decision win.
In the wake of that fight, however, reports emerged that Jones hadn’t trained properly for Gustafsson. Rumors said he was partying too much and hadn’t done his due diligence for the Swede, who came in as a 5-1 underdog, according to Odds Shark.
Considering what we now know about Jones’ lifestyle, those rumblings certainly haven’t taken on any less gravity.
So Gustafsson enters this battle with Cormier as a well-regarded fighter, but one whose biggest accomplishment is a loss. His UFC victories—Jimi Manuwa, Shogun Rua and Thiago Silva, in his last three—don’t appear particularly mind blowing in retrospect.
He also got knocked out in the first round during his most recent appearance, a fight against Johnson at home in Sweden.
Analysts are sill trying to figure out exactly how good Gustafsson can be. A victory over Cormier would mean a lot for his reputation. It would be a step toward proving his surprising showing against Jones was more about Gustafsson’s own attributes than Jones thinking he was going to have an easy night.
On the flip side, a loss would leave Gustafsson 1-3 in last four bouts and would seem to confirm our worst fears about him. It would be a tough hole to battle out of, though at just 28 years old, he would have ample opportunity.
The truly bad news for both Gustafsson and Cormier is that we have no real reason to suspect either can beat Jones, even if granted a mulligan. Unfortunately, that’s what it’s going to take to prove the belt they’re fighting for this weekend is more than just a trinket.
A lot of moving pieces—that’s the best way to describe the light heavyweight division as UFC 192 approaches.
Daniel Cormier was poised to make the first defense of his 205-pound title against Alexander Gustafsson when an Albuquerque judge o…
A lot of moving pieces—that’s the best way to describe the light heavyweight division as UFC 192 approaches.
Daniel Cormier was poised to make the first defense of his 205-pound title against Alexander Gustafsson when an Albuquerque judge on Tuesday cleared the way for former champion Jon Jones to return to the Octagon.
That means not only are Cormier and Gustafsson now fighting over an extra disputed version of the light heavyweight championship on Saturday, but they might each be vying for a rematch with Jones too. While it’s still too early to tell, it’s tough to imagine the 205-pound GOAT will be out much longer.
In addition to that, former champion Rashad Evans finally returns from a lengthy injury timeout. He’ll meet Ryan Bader in what could turn out to be a No. 1 contender fight. At the very least, the winner will be right there nipping at the heels of whoever emerges from the Cormier-Gustafsson-Jones love triangle with the belt.
Which is to say nothing of Anthony Johnson, who does not fight this weekend but nonetheless casts a very long shadow.
There’s a lot going on, and it has never been more difficult to separate the fact from the fiction. Luckily, Bleacher Report lead writers Chad Dundas (that’s me) and Jonathan Snowden are here to lend a helping hand.
Read on to find out what’s really going on at UFC 192…
Fact or Fiction: A big win makes Daniel Cormier’s title claims a little less preposterous.
Jonathan: Fiction. This is sort of a trick question. If Cormier goes out and demolishes Gustafsson, a man who pushed Jones to the limit, it would certainly be a big statement heading into a rematch. At the very least it would suggest Cormier has figured out a way to deal with extreme deficits in height and reach.
But the question, by its very nature, assumes Cormier is going to dispatch the taciturn Swede. I’m not so sure that’s true. While Cormier sometimes managed to sneak inside on the much longer Jones, the former champion isn’t nearly as fastidious as Gustafsson about maintaining distance. While he’s happy to grind a fool up at range, he secretly loves it when someone dares clinch with him.
And why not? Jones is merely the best inside fighter in the world.
Gustafsson will work much harder to keep Cormier on the outside. While the former Olympian is too good a fighter to be completely stymied, I see Gustafsson potentially keeping Cormier at bay on his way to a decision win.
The good news? Cormier’s preposterous reign ends, as it should, in ignominy. The bad news? An even more absurd champion is crowned. Chad, can we just have Jones back already?
Chad: As a matter of fact, Jonathan, yes. A folksy Albuquerque judge swept many of the obstacles to Jones’ return off the table on Tuesday. The UFC will now review his plea agreement before making any employment decision, but it appears we’re just a couple signatures away from having him back.
While that’s good news, I can’t match your scorn for Cormier’s reign. No, I don’t believe he’s the best light heavyweight in the world, but he didn’t do anything wrong by being second best, either. While Jones was on indefinite ice, the best-available move was to have the best-available guys fight for the vacant title—and Cormier turned out to be the best available.
He’ll beat Lusty Gusty handily Saturday. Seriously, who’s the Swede’s biggest win? Shogun Rua? Therefore, I’m going to say the initial statement is fact. The victory will make Cormier’s run less preposterous. With any luck, his rematch against Jones in April will be preposterously awesome too.
Jonathan: Fairly or not, Gustafsson is considered an elite light heavyweight on the strength of his best loss, not any of his wins. He pushed Jones to his limit, the same Jones who made Cormier burst into tears. Gustafsson proved that small victories can emerge from the cocoon of defeat, springing up the rankings based on what he almost did rather than anything he actually accomplished.
We’ve seemingly all accepted that fight as a de facto draw—and agreed to rank him accordingly. It’s the only explanation, unless Jimi Manuwa inexplicably carries a lot of weight with fans and the UFC’s ranking committee.
No matter who wins, it’s ultimately just two guys Jones beat fighting for his gold-plated leftovers. The world knows Jones is the real champion. Anyone else carrying the strap is a fraud.
Fact or Fiction: Johny Hendricks beats Tyron Woodley in the surprise Fight of the Night.
Chad: Fact. Co-main eventers Johny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley haven’t gotten much media shine leading up to UFC 192. They’ve been summarily overshadowed by one Jones court appearance and a UFC marketing strategy that prefers to focus on Gustafsson being kinda tall:
Both welterweights come into this bout on odd footing, having been passed over for No. 1 contender status in favor of the returning Carlos Condit. They’ve both said things fans may not exactly consider endearing. They’re both fighting for a higher spot in the divisional pecking order and to make their cases as guys who could be compelling future challengers for champion Robbie Lawler.
You know what? They succeed on Saturday. Or, at least, one of them does. I’m saying Hendricks gets back to the brawling style that made his two past fights with Lawler so popular. He puts the heat on Woodley and reclaims his position as top challenger after an action-packed bout that ends up earning both guys $50K performance-based bonuses.
Jonathan: There’s a lot going on in this fight. The two men actually met on the mats in college back in 2005. In a controversial match for the Big 12 championship, Woodley was penalized a point for biting Hendricks’ finger. He says he didn’t do any chomping and that Hendricks was the true villain for fish-hooking him.
While that kind of bad blood could lead to stand-and-Wang style fisticuffs, I think it’s more likely to end up as a glorified grappling match. That will be amazing for fans of Jon Fitch. For everyone else, it may end up being a bit of a snoozer.
Chad: Oh, ye of little faith. Look, we already know Hendricks is mad that fans didn’t stand up and demand the UFC make him No. 1 contender. We already know Woodley has a reputation among fight company brass of tanking on the big stage.
If either of these guys wants to prove he’s worthy of prime-time consideration, here’s their chance. To do it, it’s going to take more than just some rasslin’ and considerable gnashing of teeth.
Fact or Fiction: Ryan Bader spoils Rashad Evans’ return to action.
Chad: Fact-a-mundo. There’s no way to tell exactly what we’re dealing with in Evans. At 36 years old, he returns after roughly 23 months on the shelf and multiple knee surgeries. The folks at Odds Shark like his chances against Ryan Bader, but calling Evans the “favorite” in any MMA fight right now seems speculative at best.
He was once among the best fighters in the division, but we just won’t know if he’s capable of reclaiming that standing until we see him out there. If injuries have robbed him of any of his previous speed or mobility, then he might merely be an undersized 205-pounder with a good wrestling base.
Say what you want about Bader, but he’s a big, capable dude who rolls in on a four-fight win streak. There’s just too much rust on Evans here. Bader pulls the upset.
Jonathan: I’m torn here. I believe in full disclosure Chad, so it’s important I point out up front that I am totally in the tank for Evans. I’ve done two extensive profiles on the guy and really admire him as an athlete and a person.
In theory we’re supposed to dump all of that overboard when we make our fight picks. And I’ll try my best. But I just can’t see Rashad losing to Bader.
Listen, Bader is a solid enough fighter. He has solid wrestling and some pop in his punches. None of that is enough to handle Evans, who has made a career of beating up wrestlers with pop (Chuck Liddell and Rampage Jackson come to mind).
One of the advantages of being a former champion is a bank account sizable enough that Evans could delay his return until he was truly ready. I trust, if he’s getting into the cage, he’s ready. And if he’s ready, he’s too much for Bader.
Chad: I agree with you that Evans is absolutely likable, Jon—a guy, in fact, who breaks the mold in sports by actually listening to reporters’ questions, thinking about them and then trying give an honest answer. Hard to find anything to criticize there.
I also agree with you that the Evans we know—the one who is 14-3-1 during a near 10-year career in the Octagon—would handle Bader. But I feel I’ve been down the road too many times where an aging champion returns from a long injury layoff and gets immediately served with a tough comeback fight.
I’m not saying I want this particular installment of the Evans story to end like this. I’m just saying I know how it ends.
Fact or Fiction: Julianna Pena officially enters the Ronda Rousey sweepstakes.
Jonathan: Fact. Julianna Pena (7-2) is currently the No. 12 fighter in the UFC’s women’s bantamweight division. At least according to the official UFC rankings, a malleable arbiter of fighter standing since 2013. In theory that means there are a lot of warm bodies between Pena and the champ Ronda Rousey—perhaps most importantly 135 pounds of Jessica Eye at UFC 192.
But if Pena can get past Eye, currently ranked No. 6, she’s on the fast track to title contention. Look no further than Holly Holm to see a case study in action. Rousey, you see, has already dispatched most of the fighters in the top 10. That means a fighter who makes a splash in the bottom half of the division can see huge rewards for her trouble.
Beating Eye would be the cannonball into the deep end that Pena needs. With her brute strength and athleticism, she’s more than capable of taking Eye to the mat and crumbling her defenses with fight-ending ground-and-pound.
While the reward is an opportunity to get armbarred by Rousey in 30 seconds, that’s about as good as it gets for a young fighter at bantamweight. So…congratulations?
Chad: Eh, probably fiction. Don’t get me wrong, Pena could totally defeat Eye, who is just 1-2-1 in her UFC career and coming off a winnable fight against Miesha Tate that she let slip through her fingers in July.
But as for Rousey sticking around the Octagon long enough to start picking off Johnny-come-latelys like Pena? I have my doubts.
Her Rowdiness already has the date with Holm scheduled for November and smart money says she’s eventually going to end up with a big-money superfight against Cris “Cyborg” Justino. In addition to that, I have an easier time believing matchmakers would set her up with a third fight against Tate—which they tried to do already—or even a rematch with somebody like Cat Zingano before they throw Pena to the wolves.
So I guess the question is, how many UFC fights does Rousey have left in her before she leaves us forever in favor of a career where she doesn’t get punched in the face? Three? Four? And is that enough to sneak Pena in there? I doubt it.
Jonathan: Ronda Rousey already has a career where she doesn’t get punched in the face.
UFC 192 has plenty of must-see fights, but Daniel Cormier’s first attempt to defend his title against Alexander Gustafsson is worthy of main event billing.
The light heavyweight division might not seem quite right without Jon Jones at the top def…
UFC 192 has plenty of must-see fights, but Daniel Cormier‘s first attempt to defend his title against Alexander Gustafsson is worthy of main event billing.
The light heavyweight division might not seem quite right without Jon Jones at the top defending the belt, but it’s definitely more unpredictable with Cormier as king. Gone is the aura of invincibility that comes with a champion who defended his belt eight times.
In his stead is a man who still only has four fights as a light heavyweight. Cormier earned the belt in impressive fashion with a win over Anthony Johnson, but he’s already lost one of his four fights in the division.
Now, he’ll take the next step in legitimizing his crown by taking on the No. 2 ranked Gustafsson. Here’s a look at the tale of the tape between the two, including the latest odds from Odds Shark.
What They’re Saying
If you’re the type who needs a real sense of animosity between two combatants to get hyped for a fight, this might not be the encounter for you. Daniel Cormier has brought his usual banter to the table, but the reserved Swede hasn’t really played along.
Cormier has consistently gone after the fact that Gustafsson’s greatest claim to fame is that he lost a close decision to Jon Jones in 2013. All while bringing up the fact that the 6’5″ challenger is also getting this shot on the heels of another loss to Anthony Johnson in just over two minutes, per Dave Doyle of MMA Fighting:
Everything I’ve said is the truth. I think he should be annoyed by that. If you value your wins, and you value what you’ve done over the course of your career, then you wouldn’t want people harboring over a loss, even though you fought extremely well.
If anything, a guy just lost in two and a half minutes. Why would you build him back up? If you think his confidence is already low, why should I rebuild it for him?
But if the pre-fight talk is to be believed, Gustafsson’s confidence hasn’t waned despite the loss to Johnson. He’s simply tuning out what Cormier has to say and focused on the task at hand.
“I wasn’t even listening,” Gustafsson told Elias Cepeda of FOX Sports when asked about an event in which Cormier was doing his usual shtick. “I like to do my talking in the cage. That’s what I’m good at so I’m sticking to that. I’m not much of a talker on a stage. I believe we’re all professional athletes so we can show some mutual respect and wait until we get in the cage.”
Given Cormier’s penchant for hyping fights, it’s difficult to believe that there’s any actual disdain for his opponent. With Gustafsson refusing to even play along, the intrigue in this fight doesn’t lie in its trash talk. Both fighters, however, have taken the time to talk about Jon Jones in the buildup to this fight.
Cormier recently reiterated that he is the light heavyweight champion and it’s now on Jones to prepare to take that title away from him:
Gustafsson also entertained the idea of a rematch against the man who brought him into the limelight in 2013. “I’d probably fight Jon Jones again,” Gustafsson said, per Lewis Mckeever of Bloody Elbow, on whether he’d prefer a rematch with Jones or a fight with Cormier. “That’s the fight everybody wants to see. That’s the fight I want to have again. I would do it for myself, but I would mainly do it for my fans.”
The safest bet of the night might be that Jones comes up in the post-fight interview for whoever emerges victorious on Saturday night.
Predictions
There’s a reason why the champion comes into this bout as a considerable favorite. Outside of his loss to Jones, he’s looked dominant at 205 pounds. Cormier’s blend of exhausting pressure, powerful wrestling and heavy hands makes him a tough out for anyone not named Jon Jones.
However, there is reason to believe that Gustafsson can walk away victorious. As Patrick Wyman of Bleacher Report notes, his loss to Johnson by knockout might be overstated when analyzing how this fight will shake out:
The odds don’t seem right. It seems the knockout loss to Johnson has made the betting public forget the vast majority of Gustafsson’s career, which involved him moving constantly while using his height and reach to stick shorter fighters on the end of his strikes as they tried to walk him down. He produces a tremendous volume of strikes and wears his opponents down with output and pace
[…]
While it should be close, the pick is Gustafsson by decision in a major upset.
That’s certainly a compelling case. Gustafsson utilizes his reach as well as just about anyone outside the champion, and Cormier stands at just 5’11”.
However, this was the narrative before he fought Jones, too. Everyone questioned whether the challenger would be able to close the distance with Bones for long enough to do some damage.
As the fight developed, the answer to the main question was yes. Cormier was able to close the distance against Jones, as a vast majority of that fight took place in the clinch. What very few saw coming was Jones actually winning the clinch battle.
According to FightMetric, Jones outstruck Cormier in the clinch 40-22. So, closing the distance wasn’t nearly as vital for Cormier as anticipated. Against Cormier, however, the ability to control where the fight takes place will be crucial.
Gustafsson hasn’t shown the ability to do much damage in the clinch and only landed two strikes in the position against Jones.
Cormier is one of the best grinders in the game. Expect the former Olympic wrestler to work his opponent against the cage and use his powerful build to take this fight out of Gustafsson’s comfort zone over the course of five rounds.
It feels like an eternity since fans have seen a card like UFC 192.
Sure, there was an event last week, but a borderline regional show in Japan doesn’t really count as an “event,” does it? And sure, there was a pay-per-view last month…but does anyone…
It feels like an eternity since fans have seen a card like UFC 192.
Sure, there was an event last week, but a borderline regional show in Japan doesn’t really count as an “event,” does it? And sure, there was a pay-per-view last month…but does anyone want to remember shelling out $65 for five squash matches? UFC 192 is the first strong, talent-rich, “stacked” card we’ve seen since UFC 189, and it couldn’t have come at a better time.
Saturday night is chock full of high stakes and high-level bouts, but obviously, some have more on the line here than others. Who, then, is squirming on his chair from the heat of the seat? Read on to find out!
Sergio Pettis
Sergio Pettis came into the UFC with high expectations due to his undefeated 7-0 record and multiple titles from the Midwest regional circuit (oh, and his surname), but has struggled to live up to the hype in the UFC thus far. Make no mistake, Pettis hasn’t been bad by any stretch of the imagination. The nature of sports, though, is that a top prospect either ends up being the greatest thing since sliced bread or the biggest bust since the last guy.
While Pettis is coming off a loss to the unheralded Ryan Benoit, he finds himself receiving a major step up in competition at UFC 192, where he will face former flyweight title contender Chris Cariaso. While Kamikaze is coming off back-to-back losses and largely remains an unknown to MMA fans, he is a crafty veteran who has made a career out of edging out fighters like Pettis.
The former RFA champ is already on his last straw with fans, but if he winds up losing and looks bad doing it, he will likely find himself on the brink of being cut. Not a great place for somebody who was expected to storm his way to the top of the flyweight division.
TyronWoodley
TyronWoodley is in a strange place career-wise. The power-punching wrestler is almost unanimously ranked among the top five of the welterweight division in spite of the fact that he has never mounted a winning streak longer than two in the UFC. Oh, but one of the guys he did beat is actually going to fight for the title. How about that?
That said, he is still playing by the same rules as everyone else. With a lopsided loss to Rory MacDonald already on his permanent record, he cannot comfortably take another one from Johny Hendricks without having his chances at a future title shot irreparably damaged.
That is not an enviable position for anyone. Hendricks has made a career of making other top-notch fighters look bad with his strong wrestling game and powerful left hand. Woodley may have asked for this fight, but if he can’t chew up what he bit off, he may wind up locked in a gatekeeper role from here on out.
Alexander Gustafsson
It’s impossible to talk about Alexander Gustafsson without mentioning his UFC 165 bout with Jon Jones. The gigantic Swede brought today’s greatest champion to the brink of defeat in one of the most exciting fights in recent years and, while he didn’t quite get the judges’ nod that night, he has remained right in the thick of title contention ever since.
Ultimately, however, that fight with Jones went down in his record as a loss. So, too, did his heartbreaking UFC on Fox 14 fight opposite Anthony Johnson. And if he drops yet another big one to Daniel Cormier? Then things start to get really bad.
Right now, Gustafsson‘s MMA career has been defined by UFC 165. That’s not a bad thing, even if he didn’t get the “W.” If he doesn’t walk out of UFC 192 as the UFC light heavyweight champion, however, his career will be defined by his consistent inability to defeat a top-five light heavyweight.
Daniel Cormier meets Alexander Gustafsson in a UFC light heavyweight title showdown this Saturday night in Houston. It’s one of the very best fights that can be made in the division and a classic wrestler-striker matchup between two of the most skilled…
Daniel Cormier meets Alexander Gustafsson in a UFC light heavyweight title showdown this Saturday night in Houston. It’s one of the very best fights that can be made in the division and a classic wrestler-striker matchup between two of the most skilled fighters in the division.
Both Gustafsson and Cormier are cerebral, strategically minded fighters with diverse skill sets. This is a complex matchup with a great many variables, so I spoke to former UFC bantamweight champion, longtime Gustafsson training partner and current Fox Sports 1 analyst Dominick Cruz to find some clarity.
Wyman: Given that you have a lot of experience with the topic and in training with Gustafsson, I was hoping we could discuss the art of fighting on the outside. Gustafsson is obviously going to want to stick and move and keep this Cormier on the outside as much as possible. How can he go about shutting down Cormier‘s pressure?
Cruz: He has to shut down Cormier‘s pressure by getting respect right off the bat. When Alex fought Jon Jones, he came right out and hit him immediately with combinations. That’s how he got the respect of Jones.
He has to do the same thing here. He can’t come out backpedaling and worrying about the power or the wrestling of DC, because if you’re worried about it, you’re going to back up. If you’re confident that you know he’s going to wrestle, and you know when he’s going to wrestle, that makes it easier to deal with Daniel Cormier.
How do you know when DC’s going to wrestle? You know because of places that you’re lined up. He [Gustafsson] has to give DC certain positions so that he wants to shoot. When he wants to shoot, you have something set up for that.
The key to dealing with DC is that you have to bring his shot down, make him telegraph it. You can make a wrestler telegraph shots when you move the way Alex does. He moves laterally, side to side. It’s hard to shoot on a target that isn’t planted, and Alex is constantly moving and switching stances.
More than anything, Alex lines his lead leg up with the right leg of his opponent, especially if it’s a shorter wrestler. He’ll float just outside the right hand of Daniel Cormier, so that if he tries to throw that right, Alex can just slip outside of it.
Simultaneously, that also deals with the shot of Daniel Cormier, because he’s offset. He’s not standing directly in front of him. Most of the time they’re lined up directly in front of each other, so that their right hand and left hand can touch. Instead, Alex will have his right hand lined up with Cormier‘s.
That’s where he likes to stay when he fights on the outside, shifted to the left of his opponent. What that does is it lines his uppercut right up the middle and takes away the shot, because DC will have to shift directly in front if he wants the takedown. That tells Alex to peel off and get away.
The jab is obviously going to be very important in this fight. Using that jab keeps DC outside and forces the shot by pressuring him, and allows Alex to deal with the wrestling without having a wrestling background.
Wyman: In the past, Gustafsson has used his clinch game, which is really underrated, to buy time when aggressive opponents get inside. Can he afford to do that against someone who’s as good in the clinch as Cormier, or will that give Cormier too many opportunities?
Cruz: He can still do that against Cormier. He’s done it his whole career against wrestlers who are trying to take him down. The reason why he can do that is because he doesn’t just clinch you and try to use wrestling; he uses his boxing to set up his clinch. When he’s throwing punches, it looks like he’s just being offensive with boxing, but really he’s using it to set up his clinch and his takedowns.
But honestly, the takedowns aren’t going to be effective against DC unless he can keep him there. If you take DC down, he’s going to get right back up and start pressuring you again. Against Jon Jones, it broke the rhythm and took away a lot of his comfort.
Daniel doesn’t get uncomfortable when you take him down. He’s used to it and he’s ready for it. He actually doesn’t mind if you get into any kind of wrestling scramble situation, even if he’s on his back, because then he’s wrestling.
Wyman: Cormier is exceptionally comfortable, probably more so than any other wrestler in the UFC, in those spaces in between positions. He loves the ride, hitting duck-unders, where he doesn’t have to complete a takedown as long as he can force a scramble, grab a front headlock or even just a two-on-one on the arm. He’s going to be comfortable in that position.
Cruz: Right. DC wants to get into any kind of grappling scramble he can with Alex. It doesn’t matter if Alex tries to clinch him for one second; any time DC is clinched with Alex, DC is comfortable. That’s the one thing Alex can’t allow, for DC to get comfortable.
He has to constantly keep moving, constantly keep the jab out and get the respect with heavy punches. He has to rip the body of DC, too. The more he eats up the body with punches, the less of a chance there will be for DC to get under the punches and take him down.
Wyman: That’s a really interesting point. If we’re thinking about this fight as one that’s likely to go five rounds, since they’re both durable guys, this figures to be an attritive matchup. In that kind of fight, who has the edge as it goes later? Who do you think is more committed to wearing the opponent down?
Cruz: It just depends on how the fight goes. This fight is all about who can establish their comfort first. Alex finds his comfort zone by being able to move both forward and backward, not just back. When we see Alex able to move and pressure Cormier, we know he’s comfortable.
DC is comfortable in any kind of clinch. It doesn’t matter if it’s for one second, if he’s grabbing hold of Alex he’s in a good place. That’s what it comes down to, who can establish their comfort with the adjustments made. If DC can get the takedown, he might be able to finish faster, but I think Alex has to go all five rounds.
Wyman: Do you see any of this taking place in the pocket? We talked about Gustafsson‘s clinch entries and their usefulness, but do you think it might be good for him to stand his ground a throw a few combinations to keep DC off of him?
Cruz: If this fight is fought in the pocket, it’s to Daniel’s advantage. That’s an off-limits zone for Alex. If he’s not at jabbing range the whole time, Daniel’s getting more comfortable. He has to keep Daniel on the outside, and the way he does it is by firing that jab and keeping his left leg lined up with Daniel’s right leg.
By doing that, any time DC decides to force the fight into the pocket, he runs right into an uppercut. Alex can keep the range and make DC pay every time he tries to get into the pocket. Alex can slowly keep Daniel from even wanting to get inside and keep him outside where he wants.
When Alex moves simultaneously with that, the fight becomes DC chasing Alex around the cage and trying to force the clinch or telegraphing his shots.
Wyman: If DC is telegraphing shots, that’s going to wear him out.
Cruz: Exactly, that’s why Alex has to keep his jab out and keep his body offset. That way, the shot’s not there, the pocket isn’t there and every time he tries to get inside he pays for it.
If the fight starts getting into the pocket, or up against the cage, it’s Daniel’s fight.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report. He can be found on Twitter.
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