It Won’t Be Long, We’ll Meet Again: The Five Most Necessary and Unnecessary Rematches of 2011


(I see trouble a brewin’ on the horizon.) 

Given their frequency within the sport, we oft discuss the rematch here at CagePotato: we’ve mentioned a few that we’d like to see, we’ve mocked the possible occurence of others, and we’ve even gone as far as to predict how future ones would go down. And with 2011 featuring over 10 in the UFC alone, we decided to take a look back at at a year that both showcased and disgraced the awesomeness that is the rematch. Join us on this trip down memory lane, won’t you?

The Ones We Needed to See 

#5 – Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami at UFC 134

(Silva v. Okami, though this image could be from just about any of Silva’s fights.) 

Why it had to happen: Because the first fight marked the last time Silva had lost…at anything, and even if it was by way of illegal upkick DQ, it was enough to convince some people that Okami had his number. Plus, Okami had earned his shot by this point, and we were getting pretty damned tired of debating this old issue.

How it happened: Absolute. Domination. In typical fashion, Silva toyed with Okami like he was wrestling with his 4 year old nephew, letting the audience know that the fight would end when he decided it would. A head kick that rocked Okami at the end of the first round reinforced this belief, and Silva mercifully finished him off in the second. Cut. Print. TKO.

What it proved: That, outside of Chael Sonnen, there are no threats left in the UFC’s middleweight division for Anderson Silva. As with Strikeforce women’s featherweight champion Christiane “Cyborg” Santos, Silva must journey to another weight class if he desires a true challenge. Even DW is coming around to the idea, sort of.


(I see trouble a brewin’ on the horizon.) 

Given their frequency within the sport, we oft discuss the rematch here at CagePotato: we’ve mentioned a few that we’d like to see, we’ve mocked the possible occurence of others, and we’ve even gone as far as to predict how future ones would go down. And with 2011 featuring over 10 in the UFC alone, we decided to take a look back at at a year that both showcased and disgraced the awesomeness that is the rematch. Join us on this trip down memory lane, won’t you?

The Ones We Needed to See 

#5 – Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami at UFC 134

(Silva v. Okami, though this image could be from just about any of Silva’s fights.) 

Why it had to happen: Because the first fight marked the last time Silva had lost…at anything, and even if it was by way of illegal upkick DQ, it was enough to convince some people that Okami had his number. Plus, Okami had earned his shot by this point, and we were getting pretty damned tired of debating this old issue.

How it happened: Absolute. Domination. In typical fashion, Silva toyed with Okami like he was wrestling with his 4 year old nephew, letting the audience know that the fight would end when he decided it would. A head kick that rocked Okami at the end of the first round reinforced this belief, and Silva mercifully finished him off in the second. Cut. Print. TKO.

What it proved: That, outside of Chael Sonnen, there are no threats left in the UFC’s middleweight division for Anderson Silva. As with Strikeforce women’s featherweight champion Christiane “Cyborg” Santos, Silva must journey to another weight class if he desires a true challenge. Even DW is coming around to the idea, sort of.

#4 – TIE: Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan/Chan Sung Jung at UFN 24 and UFC 136

(Deep in the recesses of my brain, a tiny, red hot little flame began to grow.) 

Why they needed to happen: Because not many believed Garcia beat Jung, and not even Greg Jackson believed he beat Phan.

How they happened: Things didn’t go so well for “Bad Boy” the second time around; after falling prey to Jung’s Submission of the Year earning twister at UFN 24, Garcia would be upended by Phan in a Fight of the Night earning performance at UFC 136. Though detrimental to Garcia’s career, it did restore the balance between the sacred realms that had been thrown into chaos as a result of his previous “victories.” And hey, at least he took it with class.

What they proved: That MMA judging has not followed the sport’s rapid evolution over the past ten years, and perhaps it was time for a change. We’ve already discussed what needs to be done, but are still waiting for our lawyer to draft up the official documents. Anyone else got an idea?

The Forward Roll: UFC 140 Edition

Filed under: UFCJon Jones is the most dominant force in MMA today. Yes, more dominant than Anderson Silva or Georges St-Pierre. That became strikingly obvious at UFC 140, when Jones choked Lyoto Machida unconscious in under two rounds.

Jones has abso…

Filed under:

Jon Jones is the most dominant force in MMA today. Yes, more dominant than Anderson Silva or Georges St-Pierre. That became strikingly obvious at UFC 140, when Jones choked Lyoto Machida unconscious in under two rounds.

Jones has absolutely crushed each of his last six opponents, finished every one of them. The last three of them were former UFC champions, a feat unprecedented.

His win over Machida wasn’t the most lopsided of his recent run, but that actually made it more valuable as an assessment tool for those of us in the analysis business. Though he was never in any real trouble against Machida in the first round, it was clear he was a bit confused about the proper approach. Meanwhile, Machida was masterfully timing his attacks off counters and clearly felt comfortable with closing the distance between them.

This was the same Machida we had seen in his best days, when he was knocking out Rashad Evans and Thiago Silva, and there was nothing to suggest that Jones could suddenly figure things out between rounds after two months of preparation had left him looking a bit lost.

But whatever advantage Machida had was completely erased between rounds.

Jones made a few slight adjustments, re-took the center of the cage and suddenly seemed to understand everything that was in front of him. Machida landed nothing of any consequence in the round, and Jones drilled him once, cut him open with a slicing elbow, dropped him with a left hand, and finally finished him with a standing guillotine.

Among UFC champs, Jones has the longest streak of consecutive finishes, one that even heavyweight champ Junior dos Santos can’t match. Because of it, he’s the most dominant force in MMA, at least for now.

On to playing fantasy matchmaker…

Jon Jones
“Bones” will get a well-deserved vacation after four lengthy camps in 2011. Meanwhile, the UFC will wait to see how January’s Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis fight plays out. If Evans wins and comes out unscathed, the UFC will sync him up with Jones for a long-awaited fight that is guaranteed to do big business.
Prediction: Jones vs. Evans, with Memorial Day weekend of 2012 as the target date

Lyoto Machida
Machida is likely still wondering what went wrong after a strong opening round against Jones, but he’s hardly the only one who’s ever been left scratching his head at how it had all gone awry so quickly. Upon losing, Machida is in a similar position from the one he had before being paired with Jones, with the prospect of waiting since no obvious pairing for him exists right now. He’s faced a lot of the big names, already, and several of the other possibilities are locked into other fights.
Prediction: He faces Forrest Griffin

Frank Mir
For a second there, it seemed like Mir was going to be thrust into a replacement role against Brock Lesnar on short notice, but as long as Alistair Overeem passes his pre-fight drug screenings, he won’t be needed. It’s just as well. Mir would need more time to prep for Lesnar’s wrestling style, particularly when the fight would carry with it such major implications. If Cain Velasquez was ready to fight again soon, a Mir-Velasquez fight might make some sense, but he might need some more time off. And since the winner of Lesnar-Overeem will be moved into a title match with champ Junior dos Santos, options are limited.
Prediction: Mir faces the loser of the Lesnar-Overeem fight

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
“Big Nog” is a proud man, but you have to wonder if pride is worth a broken bone and time spent on the sidelines when you’re 35 years old and in the twilight of your career. It’s easy for me to second-guess Nogueira here, so perhaps he thought he had one last escape attempt in him just before his arm cracked. That said, he apparently lucked out as the doctor he recently saw advised him against surgery, saying it would heal on its own in around five months. Still, add in time for a training camp and you’re looking at a minimum of an 8-9 month layoff for him.
Prediction: Given the length of time away, it’s impossible to predict an opponent, but someone like Matt Mitrione or Roy Nelson might be a possibility.

Tito Ortiz
Tito Ortiz did a very smart thing before his fight with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He said he planned to retire in May 2002, 15 years from his first pro fight. That essentially meant that win or lose, he’d probably only fight once more after the Little Nog bout, which he lost by first-round TKO. It was smart because he basically publicly promised Dana White that they wouldn’t have to continue the very public debate about his possible retirement. In essence, White wouldn’t have to draw the line and be the bad guy since Ortiz drew it himself. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s 1-6-1 in his last eight fights, but it’s probably enough to get him one last fight before calling it quits.
Prediction: I won’t even guess the opponent, but the UFC gives him a winnable style matchup against a mid-level opponent.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
A couple weeks ago, after Mauricio “Shogun” Rua lost his fight with Dan Henderson, I predicted he would next fight Thiago Silva, but I completely whiffed on the possibility that he could line up a rematch of his 2005 bout with Little Nog, a bout which was one of the best bouts of that year. With both coming off wins, it’s now or never.
Prediction: He faces Rua

Chan Sung Jung
The “Korean Zombie” is the UFC‘s Mr. Excitement, win or lose, creating amazing moments. The latest was his record-tying, seven-second knockout of Mark Hominick, a former No. 1 contender Jung isn’t quite ready for the title picture yet, but he’s starting to creep into the conversation.
Prediction: He faces Ricardo Lamas

Igor Pokrajac
Pokrajac looked good against the durable Krzysztof Soszynski, needing just 35 seconds to finish him in a KO. The win made him 3-1 in his last four, so let’s match the hard-hitting Croatian up with another striker and see what kind of magic they make.
Prediction: He faces Brandon Vera.

 

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UFC 140 Aftermath Part II: Broken and Battered

There’s a time for fightin’, and a time for dancin’! Nog breaks out “The Robot“, Mir shows off the “Smooth Criminal“. (Photo: UFC.com)

I’m not sure what sort of pre-fight pep talk was given to the fighters in their locker rooms last night, but I hope somebody recorded it to play at all future events. “Never leave it in the hands of the judges” doesn’t begin to capture the sentiment that most of the fighters carried with them to the Octagon. Last night’s finishes were emphatic and extraordinary. Knocking your opponent out wouldn’t do—it would have to tie for the quickest KO in UFC history. Subbing the previously untapped wasn’t enough—you had to break them or render them unconcious.

We’ve already broken down the Jones-Machida bout, so we’ll just say the champion definitely gave us something to Skype about. Now, onto the rest of the card.

There’s a time for fightin’, and a time for dancin’! Nog breaks out “The Robot“, Mir shows off the “Smooth Criminal“.  (Photo: UFC.com)

I’m not sure what sort of pre-fight pep talk was given to the fighters in their locker rooms last night, but I hope somebody recorded it to play at all future events. “Never leave it in the hands of the judges” doesn’t begin to capture the sentiment that most of the fighters carried with them to the Octagon. Last night’s finishes were emphatic and extraordinary. Knocking your opponent out wouldn’t do—it would have to tie for the quickest KO in UFC history. Subbing the previously untapped wasn’t enough—you had to break them or render them unconcious.

We’ve already broken down the Jones-Machida bout, so we’ll just say the champion definitely gave us something to Skype about. Now, onto the rest of the card.

If Frank Mir was watching the main event back stage, his heart must have dropped along with Machida’s unconcious body. After all, there are only so many “Submission of the Night” bonuses to go around. Mir has now notched two Nogueira “firsts” on his belt. In their bout at UFC 92, Mir battered Big Nog in the standup, dropping him multiple times before following him to the ground with strikes and becoming the first man to finish the durable Brazilian. Last night, Nogueira nearly flipped the script, rattling Mir with a combination that sent him to the canvas. The writing was on the wall as Nog dropped hammerfists on a dazed Mir, but the black belt switched his attack from bludgeoning to Brazilian jiu jitsu as he attempted a D’arce choke. Mir worked free from the hold and swept the Brazilian with a Kimura. Nogueira rolled to escape, but Mir ended up on top and still in control of the arm. Nogueira would tap for the first time, but not before significant, grimace-inducing damage had been done. A post-fight x-ray revealed a very broken arm which will be repaired with surgery this week. Despite the main event, Mir’s merciless cranking earned him the evening’s $75k “Submission of the Night” bonus.

The smaller of the Nogueira brothers faired much better in his equally short bout. As expected, Rogerio’s hands were superior to Tito Ortiz’s. “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy People’s Champion” failed with an early single leg takedown, forcing him to trade with Little Nog. “Minotoro” caught him with a left hand before dropping him with a knee to the body eerily similar the knees that folded him in his fights with Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida. From there Nogueira went to work on Ortiz’s body from the guard, targeting hard punches and elbows on a single spot along his rib cage. Tito turtled up, obviously in pain, and Yves Lavigne waived the Brazilian off. Tito remained on the writhing on ground and clutching his mid-section. Dana White was unsure of Tito’s future following this second loss since his win over Ryan Bader. For Nogueira, it was a bounce back from two consecutive losses and a questionable decision victory over Jason Brilz.

“The Korean Zombie” set the tone for the evening early on. Mark Hominick came out aggressively, swinging away and looking to make short work of Chan Sung Jung, but that door swings both ways. Jung avoided Hominick’s haymaker and landed a beautiful counter that sent “The Machine” careening backwards to the mat. A few blistering follow-up shots on the ground prompted Herb Dean to step in to protect the defenseless Hominick. With his seven-second win, Jung picked up the “Knock Out of the Night” bonus and tied for the fastest ever UFC knock out, though Dana White promised to look into Duane Ludwig’s rightful claim to that record.

Jung wasn’t alone in making quick work of his opponent. Igor Pokrajac drove Krzysztov Soszynski across the cage with brutal punches that knocked him out cold in just 35 seconds.

Constantinos Philippou lit up Jarrad Hamman, dropping him multiple times throughout their fight. Hamman was mostly-unconscious for the duration of their three minute, eleven second bout, before Philippou flipped his switch for good.

Whether motivated by his exposing loss to Ebersole or a tough weight cut that left him low on energy, Dennis Hallman stormed after John Makdessi, quickly dragging him to the canvas. From there he unleashed some heavy blows before sinking in a rear naked choke just shy of three minutes into the bout.

Not all of the evening’s battles fit so neatly in the “Who Won” box, however. Brian Ebersole emerged victorious in a close contest with Claude Patrick. Boos poured out when the split-decision went against the hometown fighter. We also had the bout scored for Patrick, but if anything this bout highlighted the inconsistency in MMA judging criteria rather than outright incompetence.

Full results (via MMAWeekly):

Main Bouts (on Pay-Per-View):
-Jon Jones def. Lyoto Machida by submission (guillotine choke) at 4:26, R2
-Frank Mir def. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by submission (kimura) at 3:38, R1
-Antonio Rogerio Nogueira def. Tito Ortiz by TKO at 3:15, R1
-Brian Ebersole def. Claude Patrick by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
-Chan Sung Jung def. Mark Hominick by TKO at :07, R1

Preliminary Bouts (on ION Television):
-Igor Pokrajac def. Krzysztof Soszynski by KO at :35, R1
-Constantinos Philippou def. Jared Hamman by KO at 3:11, R1
-Dennis Hallman def. John Makdessi by submission (rear naked choke) at 2:58, R1
-Yves Jabouin def. Walel Watson by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Preliminary Bouts (on Facebook):
-Mark Bocek def. Nik Lentz by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
-Jake Hecht def. Rich Attonito by TKO at 1:10, R2
-John Cholish def. Mitch Clarke by TKO at 4:36, R2

 

– Chris Colemon (@chriscolemon)

 

UFC 140 Live Blog: Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung Updates

Filed under:

TORONTO — This is the UFC 140 live blog for Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung, a featherweight bout on tonight’s UFC pay-per-view from the Air Canada Centre.

Hominick (20-9) returns to action in Canada after losing in his bid against Jose Aldo for the UFC featherweight belt in April. “The Korean Zombie” (11-3) picked up his first UFC win in March when he submitted Leonard Garcia with a twister.

The live blog is below.



Round 1:

Round 2:

Round 3:

%VIRTUAL-Gallery-141546%

 

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Filed under:

TORONTO — This is the UFC 140 live blog for Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung, a featherweight bout on tonight’s UFC pay-per-view from the Air Canada Centre.

Hominick (20-9) returns to action in Canada after losing in his bid against Jose Aldo for the UFC featherweight belt in April. “The Korean Zombie” (11-3) picked up his first UFC win in March when he submitted Leonard Garcia with a twister.

The live blog is below.



Round 1:

Round 2:

Round 3:

%VIRTUAL-Gallery-141546%

 

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“ReX vs. Danga” – UFC 140 Edition


(The CagePotato HR Department: Boldly squashing inter-office disputes since 2007.) 

Just like pictures of hot womens and irresponsible opinions, pre-UFC event bickering has become a fixture here at CagePotato. In advance of this weekend’s card in Toronto, we locked Danga and ReX in a miniature Octagon with energy drinks, a blow-up doll, and a set of questions. We were dubious about the doll, but ReX insisted that hilarity would ensue, and he assures us that it did. It wasn’t mentioned in the final article, but some things you just don’t want to ask about.

Come on in past the jump and witness the confusion of two men discussing MMA while being distracted by said hot womens, touching on the subjects of likability, MMA Math, and the potential importance of fashion choices.


(The CagePotato HR Department: Boldly squashing inter-office disputes since 2007.) 

Just like pictures of hot womens and irresponsible opinions, pre-UFC event bickering has become a fixture here at CagePotato. In advance of this weekend’s card in Toronto, we locked Danga and ReX in a miniature Octagon with energy drinks, a blow-up doll, and a set of questions. We were dubious about the doll, but ReX insisted that hilarity would ensue, and he assures us that it did. It wasn’t mentioned in the final article, but some things you just don’t want to ask about.

Now, to the questions:

Does Lyoto stand a Crane kick’s chance in hell of winning this weekend?

RX: Funny you should mention the Crane kick, since I think Machida’s offense will give Jones some pause. Let’s not forget, quite a few pro fighters have been stymied by Machida’s style. In the Rampage fight, Jones was wary in the first round; he didn’t want to catch a big hook and go nighty-night. If he hesitates in the first, Machida can start firing off kicks to minimize Bones’ reach advantage, and it takes exactly one (1) Machida Dragon Kick to separate you from all of your earthly concerns. So… yeah, he’s got a chance. And all this has nothing to do with Machida being on my Official CagePotato Fantasy MMA Team, ok?

Look, I just want to see Jones take a good punch, ok?

Danga: Same here brother, but let’s think about this for a second: Lyoto Machida is known for one thing, utilizing distance and being elusive. Ok, two things.

RX: We’re not mentioning the other other thing?

Danga: No, now pay attention. Aside from being far too tentative, Machida’s main problem is that no kind of flying razzmatazz manuever is going to make up for the fact that he suffers nearly a foot reach disadvantage to Bones. I don’t care how much smaller his practice octagons were, come Saturday night he is going to have nowhere to go. Hell, Rua barely had a reach advantage on him and managed to keep Machida at bay for the most part. I’d also like to note that the size of Machida’s chin is significant in…er…nevermind.

Which fight is the Dark Horse for FOTN?

RX: Well, I’d think Hominick-Jung is the favorite to win FOTN, but dark horse candidate? Hamman-Phillippou could be a knockdown-dragout, what with Hamman’s ability to take punishment. How about Jabouin-Watson? Walel “The Gazelle” Watson is ridiculously long at bantamweight, has an arsenal of sick chokes, and he’s faster than my first lap dance. Plus he’s with Team Hurricane Awesome MMA Team of Awesomeness, which is a totally real thing –a CagePotato-approved camp out of San Diego — so i expect big things from him. Jabouin is no push-over of course, so we could be in for some fun back and forth exchanges. If it lasts more than sixty seconds, it could be a real crowd-pleaser.

Danga: When I initially looked at this list, I also thought that the Hominick-Jung scrap looked like a clear front runner for FOTN. Then I sat down, drank a Blue Moon with my lady, grew up, drank a Genesee Original Draft, and came to my senses. I know Jung has developed a new style and all, but Hominick is going to DESTROY him. I hate to use MMA math here, but Hominick DESTROYED the guy who DESTROYED Jung, and therefore will knock Jung out in the first 30 seconds.

RX: My head hurts. MMA MATH IS HARD. i never know what to do with the damn exponents. Do i add them or multiply? *inputs 58008 into calculator, snickers*

Danga: Haha. Boobs…what were we talking about again? Oh yeah, Fight of the Night, which is going to Mir/Nogueira. Mir is out to prove that the first match was no fluke, and is also in desperate need of an exciting match if he doesn’t want to float aimlessly amidst the heavyweight pool for the rest of his career. Plus, when has Big Nog ever been in a boring fight?

RX:  Boobies?

Danga:  Exactly.

Which Nog do you like more, not just on a personal level, but to win come Saturday night?

RX: Big Nog, all the way. First of all, because he’s fighting Frank Mir. Mir is a cerebral and articulate, and probably a great guy, but he just comes across as a pompous smarty-pants at times and people don’t like especially like him. That makes the already beloved Nogueira that much more likable on a personal level. Big Nog suffered his first stoppage loss ever to Mir three years ago (damn, has it been that long?), but i’m rolling with the “staph and injuries” story. Nogueira will be avenging that loss Saturday night. He has to. Otherwise Mir will be back in the championship hunt, and Nog will be in with Mark Hunt, and i’ll be confused and think it’s 2004 again.

Danga: Yeah, Big Nog. And don’t tell my skinny jeans that’s it’s not 2004.

Related: Little Nog is perilously close to losing three in a row, particularly if you felt that Jason Brilz deserved the decision win back at UFC 114. Would Dana cut a Nogueira?

Danga: There’s no way he’ll get cut, but do we really want to live in a world where Lil Nog is the Dan Hardy of the Light Heavyweight division? I feel icky just mentioning them both in the same sentence.

RX: Yeah, LOL j/k i’m a dumb n00b. With future plans in Brazil monster arenas and international TUF competitions, Dana will never never never never cut a Nogueira. (He will start getting lots of gatekeeper matchups, though.)

Will Canada go undefeated on the night? More importantly, what can we do to ensure Canada doesn’t go undefeated on the night?

RX: The Canucks have some tough fights on their hands, including Jabouin, Bocek (against Nik Lentz), and Claude Patrick, who matches up with the wildly unpredictable Brian Ebersole.

Danga: I’m going to go out on a limb and say yes. Bocek is better everywhere than Lentz, Patrick should be able to out grapple Ebersole, and Hominick and Jabouin are just on a different level than their opponents.

RX: I’ll say no, but it’s too close for comfort. We need to get an American agent up there for the weigh-ins to tempt the Canadian fighters with gummi bears and ice cream. Or poutine and Elsinore beer. Whatever it takes.

Danga: I think I know a guy who’d be more than willing.

What’s the over/under on the length of Dennis Ballman’s fight shorts?

RX: Doesn’t matter: i’ll take the over.

Danga: After the beating he took from both Ebersole and DW for his last…let’s call it wardrobe malfunction, I’m thinking Hallman makes his way to the octagon in snow pants, only to reveal a pair of Shinya Aoki/Karmaatemycat-esque pair of what I refer to as “the fighter’s Long Johns” for the fight itself. I’ve already thought too much about this…so how bout that Brittney Palmer?

RX: I wouldn’t be surprised if Hallman showed up in a burka. As a matter of fact, If Hallman wears anything less than knee-length board shorts in the cage, *i’ll* put on a Training Mask mankini.

Danga: Thanks, I totally didn’t want to eat any lunch today, anyway.

RX: Sorry, bro. Hey, how come Carmen Valentina hates you so much?

Danga: Three words: Prom dumpster baby.

If you feel there were some topics we missed, or have any inquiries for future debates, let us know in the comments section. 

UFC 140 Predictions

Filed under: UFCWill Jon Jones continue his domination of the light heavyweight division, or will Lyoto Machida get the belt back? Can Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira avenge his loss to Frank Mir? Will Tito Ortiz continue his surprising career resurgence, or …

Filed under:

Lyoto Machida will try to win the UFC light heavyweight title when he faces Jon Jones at UFC 140.Will Jon Jones continue his domination of the light heavyweight division, or will Lyoto Machida get the belt back? Can Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira avenge his loss to Frank Mir? Will Tito Ortiz continue his surprising career resurgence, or will he be sent a step closer to retirement by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira?

We’ll answer those questions and more as we predict the winners at UFC 140.

What: UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida

When: Saturday, the Facebook stream begins at 5:45 PM ET, the Ion televised card starts at 7 and the pay-per-view starts at 9.

Where: Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Predictions on the five pay-per-view fights below.

Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida
With a win, Jones would put a bow on what may have been the best year any fighter has ever had in the UFC: Jones has already destroyed Ryan Bader, Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson in 2011, and adding Lyoto Machida to that list would be an incredible feat.

Machida, however, may be the light heavyweight whose style is the trickiest for Jones to handle. Machida is so elusive that Jones is going to have a hard time getting to him even with his decided reach advantage, and Machida is such a good counter-striker that Jones is going to have to be careful not to get too fancy. Machida has frustrated a lot of great fighters, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him win a decision.

But Jones has been so dominant of late that I simply can’t pick against him. If Jones is able to take Machida down he should be able to use his superior strength to bully him on the ground, and even if the fight remains standing, Jones is eventually going to tag Machida the way Shogun Rua did. Of all the light heavyweights in the world, I give Machida the best chance of beating Jones. But right now I’d pick Jones over anyone.
Pick: Jones




Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Mir has made no secret that he’s a little annoyed that he even has to give Nogueira a rematch, three years after Mir won by TKO. And Mir really doesn’t like the fact that Nogueira and his supporters have suggested that an illness prior to the last fight is the reason Nogueira won.

This time around there should be no excuses, and the fight should go more or less the way the last one did: Mir will get the better of Nogueira standing, and he won’t even try to engage Nogueira on the ground. Nogueira did earn a solid win over Brendan Schaub in August, but to the extent that these two have changed since the last time they fought, I think Mir has become bigger and stronger while Nogueira has become older and slower.
Pick: Mir

Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogério Nogueira
A year ago Ortiz was largely written off as washed up, but he deserves a lot of credit for persevering: He beat Ryan Bader soundly and then fought a good fight in a losing effort against Rashad Evans. And the mere fact that Ortiz is now preparing to fight for the third time in less than six months, after fighting only once a year every year from 2007 to 2010, says a lot about how much healthier he is after his recovery from back surgery.

Nogueira, on the other hand, is on a two-fight losing streak and hasn’t had a really strong performance since he TKO’d Luiz Cane more than two years ago. If either one of these guys has looked washed up recently, it’s Little Nog.

However, in this particular matchup Nogueira’s boxing is going to carry the day: Nogueira should be able to keep Ortiz at range and batter him with punches, and eventually Nogueira will wear Ortiz down enough to win by TKO.
Pick: Nogueira

Claude Patrick vs. Brian Ebersole
Patrick is 3-0 since signing with the UFC lat year, and if he can win this one he’ll start to make some noise in the welterweight division. But Ebersole, who’s been fighting for 11 years, is much more experienced than Patrick and has a more versatile ground game, and should be able to win a decision.
Pick: Ebersole

Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung
My pick for fight of the night, Hominick vs. Jung has all the makings to be one of those fights that makes you lean forward, clench your fists and stare in awe of the intensity of the action. Hominick will have the hometown crowd on his side in Toronto, just as he did the last time he fought, when he lost to Jose Aldo at UFC 129, but in that fight it was a Rocky-like crowd, cheering him because he simply wouldn’t quit no matter how much punishment he took. In this fight, Hominick will be the better striker in the cage, and he should be able to out-land Jung and win convincingly.
Pick: Hominick

 

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