(That face you make when you realize that you’re an overpaid dinosaur who has long since worn out his welcome. And whatever facial expression Hulk Hogan is making.)
Considering that people already aren’t buying tickets to this show, I have to ask: Are any of our readers about to drop over thirty bucks on this card? Because as much as I hate to admit it, I’m not about to spend that much money on this. Maybe if it was stacked with the fighters who have made Bellator so much fun to watch over the past few years — guys like Alexander Shlemenko, Rich Hale, David Rickels and The Pitbull Brothers — I’d be able to justify dropping thirty bucks on it.
(That face you make when you realize that you’re an overpaid dinosaur who has long since worn out his welcome. And whatever facial expression Hulk Hogan is making.)
Considering that people already aren’t buying tickets to this show, I have to ask: Are any of our readers about to drop over thirty bucks on this card? Because as much as I hate to admit it, I’m not about to spend that much money on this. Maybe if it was stacked with the fighters who have made Bellator so much fun to watch over the past few years — guys like Alexander Shlemenko, Rich Hale, David Rickels and The Pitbull Brothers — I’d be able to justify dropping thirty bucks on it.
But $34.95 for two fights between UFC washouts I haven’t cared about since I was still in college, a completely pointless do-over, and only two fights that I’m willing to pay for?
The only reason that I’d buy this card is out of sympathy for Bellator. They’re sort-of banking on this thing working out, and I’d hate to see a promotion that has given us so many exciting fights go under. But if Bellator is going to continue to be a Station of the Cross for the UFC gatekeeper in decline, then, as much as I hate to type this, I can live without it.
That’s my two cents, guys. Feel free to add yours below.
At UFC 166 this past weekend, Hector Lombard — he of the disappointing 1-2 Octagon record in his first year with the organization — made his 170-pound debut after nine years as a middleweight, and it was a good one, as he absolutely obliterated former Strikeforce welterweight champion Nate Marquardt with brutal left hooks in under two minutes to save his job with the UFC.
According to Lombard, the UFC told him “take it or leave it” in regards to a potential drop to 170, meaning he could either make the move down to welterweight or get his walking papers after putting together a losing record as a UFC middleweight.
After all, the former Bellator middleweight champion was a huge signing for the UFC last summer, but after losing two disappointing split decisions to Tim Boetsch and Yushin Okami (with a KO win over Rousimar Palhares sandwiched in between), it was clear that “Lightning” was too small to compete with the bigger 185-pounders in the Octagon.
So Dana White and Joe Silva told Lombard to make the cut to 170, and if last Saturday night in Houston was any indication, this man is going to be an absolute force to be reckoned with in the UFC welterweight division.
In fact, I would even go as far as to say he’s an instant title contender.
Sure, a win over Marquardt these days doesn’t mean as much as it used to. After all, “The Great” has gone 0-3 in 2013, including a previous KO loss to Jake Ellenberger and a decision loss to Tarec Saffiedine. But still, he’s a former Pancrase/Strikeforce champion, a former top-three ranked middleweight, and a huge name in the sport.
So while a KO win over Marquardt in 2013 isn’t as special as it may have been three years ago — hell, even one year ago, when he was wrecking Tyron Woodley’s brains in Strikeforce — it’s still a good win on paper, and it’s the type of victory that will put Lombard on the fast track to a title shot at 170 pounds, if mostly because of his combination of muscles and hefty price tag.
At UFC 166 this past weekend, Hector Lombard — he of the disappointing 1-2 Octagon record in his first year with the organization — made his 170-pound debut after nine years as a middleweight, and it was a good one, as he absolutely obliterated former Strikeforce welterweight champion Nate Marquardt with brutal left hooks in under two minutes to save his job with the UFC.
According to Lombard, the UFC told him “take it or leave it” in regards to a potential drop to 170, meaning he could either make the move down to welterweight or get his walking papers after putting together a losing record as a UFC middleweight.
After all, the former Bellator middleweight champion was a huge signing for the UFC last summer, but after losing two disappointing split decisions to Tim Boetsch and Yushin Okami (with a KO win over Rousimar Palhares sandwiched in between), it was clear that “Lightning” was too small to compete with the bigger 185-pounders in the Octagon.
So Dana White and Joe Silva told Lombard to make the cut to 170, and if last Saturday night in Houston was any indication, this man is going to be an absolute force to be reckoned with in the UFC welterweight division.
In fact, I would even go as far as to say he’s an instant title contender.
Sure, a win over Marquardt these days doesn’t mean as much as it used to. After all, “The Great” has gone 0-3 in 2013, including a previous KO loss to Jake Ellenberger and a decision loss to Tarec Saffiedine. But still, he’s a former Pancrase/Strikeforce champion, a former top-three ranked middleweight, and a huge name in the sport.
So while a KO win over Marquardt in 2013 isn’t as special as it may have been three years ago — hell, even one year ago, when he was wrecking Tyron Woodley’s brains in Strikeforce — it’s still a good win on paper, and it’s the type of victory that will put Lombard on the fast track to a title shot at 170 pounds, if mostly because of his combination of muscles and hefty price tag.
The fact is the UFC hasn’t gotten the return on investment with Lombard that they hoped to get. Let’s face it, the UFC wanted him to beat Boetsch at UFC 149, up his record to 26-straight fights undefeated, and then set up a champion vs. champion fight against former UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva.
But Boetsch leg kicked his way to a head-scratching decision win, and, even though many observers feel the judges blew that one, it still wasn’t the kind of dominating performance that we’ve come to know (and love) out of Lombard, and there’s no doubt in my mind it was a loss that left UFC brass extremely disappointed.
After the loss to Boetsch – which reportedly cost the UFC a whopping $700,000 due to paying Lombard PPV points – Lombard was shifted to free TV cards so the UFC didn’t have to pay him that huge bonus. That’s why his last three fights against Palhares, Okami, and Marquardt have all been on free television. Let’s face it, in the UFC’s mind, paying Lombard $300,000 instead of $700,000 is a lot easier to swallow. And it’s even possible that with the move to 170, the UFC not only told Lombard to cut 15 pounds, but they also cut his salary (official salaries for UFC 166 have not yet been released).
But after Lombard’s destruction of Marquardt, his stock is way up now and I expect him to be back on pay-per-view for his next outing. And I expect him to be paired up with a top-10 opponent.
There are lots of interesting matchups for Lombard at 170 pounds, but the fighter I believe that Lombard will be paired up against is Jake Shields, who recently upset Demian Maia via split decision in the main event UFC Fight Night 29.
Even though most consider him “boring,” Shields’s name still carries weight in the sport. He’s a former Strikeforce champion, a former UFC title challenger, and, most importantly, a winner. If Lombard can go in the cage with him and wreck house, it could put him one fight away from a title shot, in my opinion.
With his Herculean-esque physique (especially at 170), cerebral demeanor, athletic background, and ridiculous KO power, Lombard is a guy who the UFC can market as a title contender, and now that he’s in the proper weight class, there’s a very good chance that he can go all the way to the top in the division.
When Lombard came to the UFC, many believed he was overrated and that he had been padding his record while fighting second-tier fighters in Bellator and CFC in Australia. I disagreed, though. I had been watching Lombard since the PRIDE days, and with his mix of knockout power, submissions, and strong takedown defence, I believed he could make a run to the top of the UFC middleweight division.
Unfortunately, Lombard’s fight against Yushin Okami in March proved that competing at 185 pounds wasn’t doing him any favors — he was just too small to compete at middleweight, and Okami “Okami’d” him to a decision win. Though he was essentially forced to drop to welterweight by his employers, the move to 170 pounds was exactly what he needed — and it’s why I think many were too quick to attach the “bust” label to him.
Looking at Lombard and his skillset, it’s my opinion that he could legitimately make a run for the title at 170 pounds. Now, let’s see him try to do it. At 35 years of age, the clock is ticking, but as we saw against Marquardt, Lombard’s time is not up. In fact, it might just be starting.
On October 21st, 2007 — six years ago today — a snot-nosed MMA blog called CagePotato.com took its first breath, and for the most part, nobody gave a damn. The entire writing staff for the site’s launch consisted of one person, a young magazine-industry refugee named Ben Goldstein (that’s me). My professional credentials consisted of the following: I was a casual fan of the UFC, I had been laid off from a lad-mag called Stuff a couple months earlier, and I needed a job. Any job, really. So, when a friend of a friend named Jonathan Small* called me one day and said he was looking for some warm bodies to launch a few dude-oriented websites for Break Media (now Defy Media), I jumped at the chance. After all, the rent was due.
Though many long-time fans of CagePotato know the site’s history in its broad strokes, few know the details behind its launch. I was hesitant to talk about my personal background in the early days of the site’s existence, because I didn’t want to be exposed as a MMA noob, which I totally was**. Before CagePotato launched in 2007, I hadn’t written a single thing about MMA, and I had never managed a website. I had interviewed actresses and reviewed books, done features about hurricanes and porn stars, but the world of MMA blogging was completely foreign to me. Still, I enjoyed the sport, recognized that it was growing in popularity, and figured I had learned enough about short-form entertainment writing from five years of magazine gigs to make a snarky blog about MMA a modest success. Incredibly, I was right.
The first post I ever published was this Aftermath-type recap of UFC 77, the event where Anderson Silva TKO’d Rich Franklin for the second time, and Tim Sylvia picked up his final win in the UFC. At that point, most of what I knew about MMA came from Wikipedia, but the basic ball-busting tone of CagePotato was present from the beginning. An excerpt:
On October 21st, 2007 — six years ago today — a snot-nosed MMA blog called CagePotato.com took its first breath, and for the most part, nobody gave a damn. The entire writing staff for the site’s launch consisted of one person, a young magazine-industry refugee named Ben Goldstein (that’s me). My professional credentials consisted of the following: I was a casual fan of the UFC, I had been laid off from a lad-mag called Stuff a couple months earlier, and I needed a job. Any job, really. So, when a friend of a friend named Jonathan Small* called me one day and said he was looking for some warm bodies to launch a few dude-oriented websites for Break Media (now Defy Media), I jumped at the chance. After all, the rent was due.
Though many long-time fans of CagePotato know the site’s history in its broad strokes, few know the details behind its launch. I was hesitant to talk about my personal background in the early days of the site’s existence, because I didn’t want to be exposed as a MMA noob, which I totally was**. Before CagePotato launched in 2007, I hadn’t written a single thing about MMA, and I had never managed a website. I had interviewed actresses and reviewed books, done features about hurricanes and porn stars, but the world of MMA blogging was completely foreign to me. Still, I enjoyed the sport, recognized that it was growing in popularity, and figured I had learned enough about short-form entertainment writing from five years of magazine gigs to make a snarky blog about MMA a modest success. Incredibly, I was right.
The first post I ever published was this Aftermath-type recap of UFC 77, the event where Anderson Silva TKO’d Rich Franklin for the second time, and Tim Sylvia picked up his final win in the UFC. At that point, most of what I knew about MMA came from Wikipedia, but the basic ball-busting tone of CagePotato was present from the beginning. An excerpt:
“…Sylvia did nothing to change his image as a boring fighter who relies on his size to win matches. But you gotta feel for the dude; it can’t be fun to get booed at weigh-ins, and to have Brandon Vera explain to the crowd after the fight, “he’s a nice guy once you get to know him.” Vera, it should be said, didn’t look too impressive against the Maine-iac, was responsible for most of the clinching that made the fight so dull, and should probably give up the ice cream and drop down to light heavyweight.
The middleweight championship bout between Franklin and Silva was a lot more action-packed, but ended much the same way as their first meeting, with Franklin eating knees until he hit the mat and the fight was stopped (this time at 1:07 into the second round). Franklin looked outmatched from the start, and was nearly knocked out by a punch at the end of the first round but was saved by the bell before Silva could take full advantage; as soon as Franklin started stumbling to the wrong corner, it was obvious that this one would be over soon. In fact, Franklin was so dazed after the fight that a member of his team had to remind him to wish his wife Beth a happy birthday during the post-mortem with Joe Rogan. She turned 30, by the way, and I’m sure it was the best birthday ever.”
That evening, I left my office (i.e., the desk I had in the tiny Lower East Side apartment I shared with my then-girlfriend, who’s now my wife) and attended a press conference at the Ecko headquarters in which Fedor Emelianenko announced his signing with M-1 Global. I don’t think I spoke to a single person except for the guy who was serving drinks at the makeshift bar, but I felt like I was on my way to taking the MMA media world by storm. I mean, shit, here I was among people who actually covered the sport (including Ben Fowlkes and Jim Genia), and I was blending in. Nobody shouted “NOOB!” and threw me out a window. MMA was in its infancy, crazy shit was happening every single day, and this was going to be my life.
Things change, as they always do. Eventually, I realized that publishing whatever I felt like publishing and being an “MMA insider” were mutually exclusive propositions. CagePotato was banned as a UFC media presence, and the crazy shit that used to happen every day now happens far less frequently. But I still show up to work every day because I love this job, and because we still put out content that I’m proud of. After six years, the site has built its own mythology, its own vocabulary, its own history with various sub-eras, some more successful than others. The only constants have been me and you.
So happy sixth anniversary to us, and thanks to all of you who continue to read what we write. If you have any fond memories of CagePotato you’d like to share today, please do so in the comments section.
* The name “CagePotato” can be credited to Jonathan Small, who was Break Media’s editorial director at the time. I was pushing for “MMA-Hole,” but Jon insisted on the “couch potato” pun. I didn’t really like it at first, but it’s sort of grown on me, I guess.
** During my first week on the job, I emailed a UFC PR employee asking who the best contact would be for PRIDE-related interview requests. PRIDE, of course, had been dead since its purchase by Zuffa seven months earlier. A real fan would have known that bit of information; I guess I had missed that line on PRIDE’s Wikipedia page. Oh, and here’s another good story…
Early into CP’s existence, a UFC PR flack emailed me offering a few minutes on the phone with Dana White, who was doing the media rounds to promote the gigantic ‘Octagon’ coffee-table book. I said I’d love to talk to Mr. White, and asked the publicist when he’d be available, and should I call him or would he rather call me, etc., all the usual logistical questions I had learned from my magazine days. The PR flack never responded. A few hours later, I’m walking down the street to get a sandwich from my corner deli, and my phone started ringing, with a Las Vegas number popping up in the screen. I didn’t answer, partly because I didn’t have my tape-recorder on me to do an interview on the spot, and partly because I thought it was kind of unprofessional for an interview subject to just call you when a time hasn’t been confirmed. I mean, do they expect you to just wait by the phone? That’s not how it works, dude. My time is valuable too, you know. So I got home, and listened to a voicemail from Dana White himself, who mumbled something about the Octagon book and an interview. I called the number back and got voicemail. “Ah well,” I thought. “I’m sure he’ll call me back eventually.” And he did — three years later, when he was threatening to fuck me up.
(Cain Velasquez may not kick like Anderson Silva, but his dominance over heavyweight will parallel Silva’s period of dominance over middleweight. / Photo via Getty)
After the events of UFC 166, the heavyweight division is now the UFC’s least thrilling.
Heavyweight is the new middleweight. That is to say that the heavyweight division under Cain Velasquez‘s brutal, face-rearranging reign will resemble the middleweight division under Anderson Silva during his peak — a boring division where no fighter is a threat to the champ. A division where everybody says, “Meh, who cares about who’s challenging for the heavyweight title? Cain is going to destroy him anyway.”
The only fighter to ever humble Cain Velasquez was Junior Dos Santos. But Dos Santos couldn’t repeat his success. Velasquez wrought terrible vengeance on the Brazilian in the rematch at UFC 155, and then again in the rubber match at UFC 166.
Earlier this year, I predicted that the UFC heavyweight division would become stagnant and dull:
Both men are insanely talented. But that’s the problem — they’re both so talented that the rest of the fighters in the division aren’t a match for them. The only challenge to Velasquez is Dos Santos. The only challenge to Dos Santos is Velasquez.
I was right and wrong.
(Cain Velasquez may not kick like Anderson Silva, but his dominance over heavyweight will parallel Silva’s period of dominance over middleweight. / Photo via Getty)
After the events of UFC 166, the heavyweight division is now the UFC’s least thrilling.
Heavyweight is the new middleweight. That is to say that the heavyweight division under Cain Velasquez‘s brutal, face-rearranging reign will resemble the middleweight division under Anderson Silva during his peak — a boring division where no fighter is a threat to the champ. A division where everybody says, “Meh, who cares about who’s challenging for the heavyweight title? Cain is going to destroy them anyway.”
The only fighter to ever humble Cain Velasquez was Junior Dos Santos. But Dos Santos couldn’t repeat his success. Velasquez wrought terrible vengeance on the Brazilian in the rematch at UFC 155, and then again in the rubber match at UFC 166.
Earlier this year, I predicted that the UFC heavyweight division would become stagnant and dull:
Both men are insanely talented. But that’s the problem — they’re both so talented that the rest of the fighters in the division aren’t a match for them. The only challenge to Velasquez is Dos Santos. The only challenge to Dos Santos is Velasquez.
I was right and wrong. Both men are talented. The rest of the division is no match for Dos Santos, but Dos Santos is clearly no match for Velasquez, their first fight notwithstanding. Thus, the future of the UFC heavyweight division is grim. Here’s how it’ll look:
Cain Velasquez destroys all comers — even Fabricio Werdum who, for some reason, people think is now a legitimate title contender. Velasquez will reduce Werdum to awkward, frustrated butt-scooting. The champ likely won’t have much of a problem with the other heavyweight hopefuls; none of them have answers for Velasquez’s wrestling, striking, and conditioning. Unfortunately, those same men probably don’t have an answer for Junior Dos Santos’ boxing acumen and power either.
The UFC heavyweight division in 2013 is analogous to the UFC middleweight division in 2006-7. Anderson Silva was the best guy. Rich Franklin was the next best guy and was better than everyone else besides Silva. The only problem? Silva brutalized Franklin so badly that discussing a rematch was asinine.
Now, just swap out Silva with Velasquez and Franklin with Dos Santos and you’ve got the post-UFC 166 heavyweight division. The excitement is gone. Everyone not named Junior Dos Santos will be fighting for the honor of being third-best, while Dos Santos himself will be fighting for the privilege of being Cain Velasquez’s eternal understudy.
Remember when Mark Hunt could have been the next contender for the heavyweight title? When everyone fantasized that the heavy-handed, iron-chinned Samoan might have challenged Cain Velasquez? It would have made an extraordinary narrative; the nigh-unbeatable champion facing a one-dimensional specialist who had improbably salvaged his career at the last possible opportunity with the ability to put anyone’s lights out. It’s the stuff movies are made of.
In this case, reality is better.
No disrespect to Mark Hunt or what he managed to achieve, but it’s a good thing Junior Dos Santosput him down with that spinning wheel kick. There is no better fight to make in the heavyweight division than Dos Santos vs. Velasquez. With Daniel Cormier dropping to light-heavyweight, none even come close. Velasquez and Dos Santos are the two best heavyweights by a considerable margin, each with the tools, the experience and the will necessary to defeat the other. Their story doesn’t depend on any degree of improbability, appeal to sentiment or require any context beyond this simple truth; that they are the epitome of their profession striving to attain a title beyond the title. They are attempting to lay claim to the title of the best heavyweight of their era, to establish the successor to The Last Emperor.
While both Dos Santos and Velasquez are well-rounded and durable, those qualities manifest themselves in different ways. Dos Santos is more fluid in his stand-up, hits with more power, and moves with seemingly less effort. His cardio is solid, and he actually has a relatively fast pace for a heavyweight. And in his loss to Velasquez last year, he showed an exceptional ability to mitigate damage from the bottom while regaining position and standing. Velasquez, on the other hand, seems to be force incarnate. He knows no direction but forward, his cardio is unrelenting, and while he lacks Dos Santos’ pure stand-up ability, he is able to transition effortlessly between kickboxing and wrestling. This is particularly effective because he always pushes forward, constantly threatening the takedown, which opens up opportunities for his underrated hands and hard kicks.
Remember when Mark Hunt could have been the next contender for the heavyweight title? When everyone fantasized that the heavy-handed, iron-chinned Samoan might have challenged Cain Velasquez? It would have made an extraordinary narrative; the nigh-unbeatable champion facing a one-dimensional specialist who had improbably salvaged his career at the last possible opportunity with the ability to put anyone’s lights out. It’s the stuff movies are made of.
In this case, reality is better.
No disrespect to Mark Hunt or what he managed to achieve, but it’s a good thing Junior Dos Santosput him down with that spinning wheel kick. There is no better fight to make in the heavyweight division than Dos Santos vs. Velasquez. With Daniel Cormier dropping to light-heavyweight, none even come close. Velasquez and Dos Santos are the two best heavyweights by a considerable margin, each with the tools, the experience and the will necessary to defeat the other. Their story doesn’t depend on any degree of improbability, appeal to sentiment or require any context beyond this simple truth; that they are the epitome of their profession striving to attain a title beyond the title. They are attempting to lay claim to the title of the best heavyweight of their era, to establish the successor to The Last Emperor.
While both Dos Santos and Velasquez are well-rounded and durable, those qualities manifest themselves in different ways. Dos Santos is more fluid in his stand-up, hits with more power, and moves with seemingly less effort. His cardio is solid, and he actually has a relatively fast pace for a heavyweight. And in his loss to Velasquez last year, he showed an exceptional ability to mitigate damage from the bottom while regaining position and standing. Velasquez, on the other hand, seems to be force incarnate. He knows no direction but forward, his cardio is unrelenting, and while he lacks Dos Santos’ pure stand-up ability, he is able to transition effortlessly between kickboxing and wrestling. This is particularly effective because he always pushes forward, constantly threatening the takedown, which opens up opportunities for his underrated hands and hard kicks.
Each fighters’ advantages have made their presence felt in their previous fights. In the first fight — with both fighters injured — it was Dos Santos who capitalized on Velasquez’s reticence to engage or push the pace. Allowed to stay on the outside and pick his shots, Junior used his superior timing and feints to land a massive overhand right just a minute into the fight, resulting the end of Cain’s brief first reign. Velasquez was having none of that in the rematch, relentlessly pressuring Dos Santos with takedowns; that they were initially ineffective was no deterrent to his overarching strategy of moving Dos Santos backwards and draining his cardio. As his hands began to drop, Dos Santos was undone with a right cross from the former champion. While he lasted the next 22 minutes of the fight, he was never capable of victory. Cain simply continued to pressure Dos Santos, landing combinations and takedowns at will en route to a dominant decision.
Prediciting what will happen in their third fight is mostly a matter of weighing their accomplishments in their previous encounters. While some are inclined to simply state that a five-round decision says more than a one-minute knockout, this isn’t the case here. The victories, and the manners of those victories, are the result of specific tactics and moments. If Cain didn’t land that right hand in the second fight, he may well still have won, but it would not have likely been as dominant a victory as it was. Had Dos Santos missed that overhand right in the first fight, he may still have taken the title but it may have been a more measured affair dictated from a comfortable distance. This isn’t to diminish the authority of those results, but simply to state that focusing on the dichotomy between the length each fight lasted is a disingenuous way to analyze which fighter is superior and why.
That said, Velasquez has to be the favorite here. While Dos Santos is definitely capable of securing a knockout or even winning a decision, these scenarios are entirely dependent on if he can keep the fight standing. He should succeed in doing so for the first round, but beyond that Cain’s indominable pressure will grind him down. Velasquez will push forward yet again, mixing strikes with takedowns, opening opportunities up with constant forward pressure and level changes, forcing Dos Santos out of his comfort zone. Once he loses the space with which he’s able to effectively work his boxing, Dos Santos may delay the inevitable with his underrated ground game but will be incapable of denying Velasquez as the minutes ebb on. Velasquez is unlikely to be able to muster the power to finish Dos Santos up close, but that’s a sacrifice he’ll be willing to make in exchange to mitigate the danger Dos Santos poses. Expect another five-round decision — albeit perhaps a less one-sided one than the last — to result in Velasquez retaining his crown and asserting his claim as the greatest heavyweight since Fedor Emelianenko.
With UFC 166 being a 13-fight card, it wouldn’t be hard for some of this weekend’s storylines to fly under the radar. In fact, this card is so deep that I honestly think I could find 20 hidden storylines in it if I really wanted to. But instead I’ll just run down what I think are the top four hidden storylines to be aware of while watching the fights. Let me know what you think in the comments section, and be sure to come back to CagePotato on Saturday night for our liveblog of the pay-per-view broadcast.
There has never been a four- or five-fight series in UFC history, but it’s entirely possible that Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos will meet once or twice more after this weekend’s rubber-match at UFC 166, particularly if dos Santos wins the title back.
Let’s face it, the heavyweight talent pool in MMA is very shallow, and Velasquez and dos Santos are the cream of the crop. They are truly the only two heavyweights in the UFC without any discernable weaknesses, and with their ability to consistently produce exciting matches (particularly against one another), the UFC would have no problem having these guys fight again in the future. The fact that both fighters have broad appeal in two huge markets (Velasquez in Mexico, dos Santos in Brazil) certainly helps as well. A four-fight series would make history, and you’d better believe the UFC would hammer home that point in promoting it.
But it really comes down to how the third fight goes. If it’s a blowout for either guy, a fourth fight won’t be as intriguing, and would be unlikely to happen. But if it’s a competitive war that makes the fans go nuts, we can all look forward to Velasquez vs. Dos Santos IV. And soon.
2) Did Daniel Cormier Make a Mistake by Prematurely Announcing a Drop to 205?
(Cain Velasquez shoots in on teammate Daniel Cormier at yesterday’s open workouts in Houston. / Photo via MMAFighting)
With UFC 166 being a 13-fight card, it wouldn’t be hard for some of this weekend’s storylines to fly under the radar. In fact, this card is so deep that I honestly think I could find 20 hidden storylines in it if I really wanted to. But instead I’ll just run down what I think are the top four hidden storylines to be aware of while watching the fights. Let me know what you think in the comments section, and be sure to come back to CagePotato on Saturday night for our liveblog of the pay-per-view broadcast.
There has never been a four- or five-fight series in UFC history, but it’s entirely possible that Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos will meet once or twice more after this weekend’s rubber-match at UFC 166, particularly if dos Santos wins the title back.
Let’s face it, the heavyweight talent pool in MMA is very shallow, and Velasquez and dos Santos are the cream of the crop. They are truly the only two heavyweights in the UFC without any discernable weaknesses, and with their ability to consistently produce exciting matches (particularly against one another), the UFC would have no problem having these guys fight again in the future. The fact that both fighters have broad appeal in two huge markets (Velasquez in Mexico, dos Santos in Brazil) certainly helps as well. A four-fight series would make history, and you’d better believe the UFC would hammer home that point in promoting it.
But it really comes down to how the third fight goes. If it’s a blowout for either guy, a fourth fight won’t be as intriguing, and would be unlikely to happen. But if it’s a competitive war that makes the fans go nuts, we can all look forward to Velasquez vs. Dos Santos IV. And soon.
2) Did Daniel Cormier Make a Mistake by Prematurely Announcing a Drop to 205?
Despite being 34 years old, Daniel Cormier is considered the top heavyweight prospect on the planet and this weekend puts his undefeated 12-0 record on the line against veteran Roy Nelson in the co-main event of UFC 166.
Although Nelson is coming off a loss to Stipe Miocic, he’s still regarded as one of the top-10 heavyweights in the world by many, and a win over the popular “Big Country” — especially a knockout — would be huge for Cormier in the eyes of the fans, giving him the big win he needs to get a UFC title shot.
The problem is, there are two fighters blocking Cormier’s path to an immediate light heavyweight title shot against Jones: Glover Teixeira and Alexander Gustafsson. Teixeira has already been confirmed as Jones’ next challenger – the two will fight in early 2014 – while Gustafsson has been told he will get a rematch with Jones next summer if he wins his next fight.
That means that Cormier would have to wait at least a year to get a crack at the 205-pound belt, and it means he would have to fight other top fighters like Phil Davis and Rashad Evans in the meantime; a loss, of course, would eliminate him from title contention.
I understand that Cormier is Cain Velasquez’s friend and main training partner, but there’s no guarantee that Velasquez will defend the UFC heavyweight championship against Junior dos Santos. If Velasquez loses and dos Santos becomes the champ, then a fight between JDS and Cormier would be the most marketable option, and there would be no one potentially blocking Cormier’s path to an immediate heavyweight title shot (other than Fabricio Werdum, who dos Santos has already KO’d).
At the very least, Cormier should have waited until UFC 166 was over before announcing his move down to 205.
One of the top preliminary fights on the UFC 166 card is a welterweight matchup between former top-10 middleweights Nate Marquardt and Hector Lombard. Yes, that’s right, this is a preliminary fight despite the fact both of these fighters were champions of other organizations in the last two years — Marquardt with Strikeforce and Lombard with Bellator — which says a lot to me about where both these guys stand in the eyes of Dana White, Joe Silva & Co.
In fact, I think both guys have been matched up against one another because the UFC wants to cut their losses with the loser. After all, both guys might be awesome fighters but they cost a lot — Marquardt at over 40k to show/40k to win, and Lombard gobbling up a 300k base salary. And, despite both being exciting fighters, let’s be honest, neither is a huge draw at the gate.
Therefore the return on investment isn’t there, and that’s why I think the UFC will part ways with whoever loses this match. And the fact that neither have been winning much as of late — with Marquardt on a two-fight losing streak and Lombard 1-2 in his last three — certainly doesn’t help the loser’s chances of sticking around.
4) Will Andre Fili Be the Next Great Team Alpha Male Fighter in the UFC?
In one of the Facebook prelims, featherweight prospect Andre Fili makes his UFC debut when he takes on Jeremy Larsen. Fili took the fight on only 12 days’ notice after Charles Oliveira pulled out of the Larsen matchup with an injury, but knowing the conditioning that the Team Alpha Male fighters put themselves through, I think he’ll be in good shape for this fight.
I mention his camp because one of the storylines the UFC has been selling as of late has been the recent success of the Sacramento-based Team Alpha Male. With fighters like Urijah Faber, Joseph Benavidez, Chad Mendes, and TJ Dillashaw having tremendous success in the Octagon — especially ever since Duane Ludwig took over as head coach — I’m super excited any time of their better prospects is put in the spotlight, and Fili is a guy who has been highly touted for a long time.
Only 23 and already carrying a 12-1 pro MMA record under his belt (the only loss coming via injury TKO), not to mention having one of the best nicknames in the sport (“Touchy”), Fili has a very bright future in this sport and it says a lot to me about how matchmaker Sean Shelby views him that the UFC signed him before they did his more famous and decorated teammate Lance Palmer. So definitely check this fight out if you get a chance to watch the Facebook prelims.
