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Daily Fantasy MMA: Best DraftKings Picks for UFC 194 Aldo vs. McGregor Card

If you love MMA, you’re probably stoked for UFC 194 on Saturday. The undisputed UFC Featherweight Title matchup between champion Jose Aldo ($9,500) and interim belt holder “The Notorious” Conor McGregor ($9,900) is perhaps the most anticipated fight in…

You may even have a rooting interest or a fighter you’re leaning toward in the way of a prediction. That’s also natural. Despite the interest many have in the main event, it seems inadvisable to use a lineup spot on either man.

If pressed to draft one in a DraftKings contest, McGregor would be the most logical pick.

This logic isn’t rooted in a prediction that the Notorious one will win. In fact, it’s quite the contrary. The advice is born from an understanding of DraftKings MMA scoring and the fighter’s likely path to victory.

A McGregor victory would probably rack up more fantasy points. If he wins, the end is probably going to come quickly. That means the people who are biased or bold enough to pick the outspoken Irishman will cash in. That explains why McGregor averages 100.6 fantasy points per fight, compared to 74.7 for Aldo, per DraftKings.

If Aldo wins, it’ll probably be on the strength of his jiu-jitsu skills and overall well-roundedness as a fighter. That type of victory can take more time to materialize. In DraftKings MMA, swiftness of victory equals more points, and more points lead to more money.

Though Aldo is my pick to win, McGregor‘s skills and presence create enough doubt to deter a recommendation to draft the Brazilian—even at his reasonable DK salary. His potentially modest point total in victory is the other determent.

How can this lack of aggressiveness toward the main event be prosperous in a DK contest?

Take a look at the optimal picks for UFC 194. You’ll see there are more than enough affordable options to choose from aside from the compelling main event.

John Makdessi ($10,300)

Despite coming off a TKO loss in his last fight to Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in May, John “The Bull” Makdessi is still a smart pick on Saturday against Yancy Medeiros.

Few fighters in the lightweight division have the striking prowess to get the best of Makdessi on the feet. Medeiros‘ past fight strategies suggests he may try his hand at trading with the Bull. Medeiros lost his last fight as well, as he was overwhelmed and knocked out by a rejuvenated Dustin Poirier in June.

He did go into the fight with Poirier on the back of two consecutive wins by submission, but Medeiros seems to prefer to stand and fight. According to FightMetric, the 28-year-old has never attempted a takedown in any UFC fight. The same can be said for Makdessi.

While Medeiros will enjoy a sizable two-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage, Makdessi‘s boxing is excellent and should provide him the angles to circumvent the length disparity. He employs solid head movement and it has led to a higher striking defense rating (72 percent to 55) than his Hawaiian opponent.

In a fight that seems destined to end in a stoppage, Makdessi is the fighter to draft.

Kevin Lee ($10,800)

Drafting Kevin Lee should be the biggest no-brainer pick in the event. The 23-year-old Grand Rapids, Michigan, native known as the Motown Phenom is one of the UFC’s brightest young stars and a rising threat in the lightweight division.

He’ll be opposed by veteran Brazilian Leonardo Santos. Lee’s best fighting attribute is his wrestling. Those skills are augmented by his speed and explosiveness. Santos has demonstrated good takedown defense in his career (86 percent), but he’s yet to face a wrestler as talented as Lee.

Santos doesn’t bring a ton of striking pop into the Octagon. He has just one win by KO in his career, per Sherdog.com. He is an accomplished submissions fighter with nine wins via tapout.

As long as Lee is patient and disciplined once he gets the fight to the ground, he should pile up significant strikes en route to a TKO victory, or a lopsided unanimous-decision win that includes a ton of points for his ground-and-pound work.

Gunnar Nelson ($9,300)

The most undervalued fighter on the card is Gunnar Nelson. His opponent, Demian Maia ($10,100), is worthy of respect, but he is a one-dimensional fighter.

Beyond his world-class submission skills, Maia doesn’t do anything else above average in the Octagon. It just so happens that he’s able to win because he’s usually so much better than his opponents in that.

Nelson is an exception. His grappling is almost at Maia’s level, and his striking is leagues ahead of the Brazilian’s. That was clear in Nelson’s last fight against the powerful Brandon Thatch.

A one-two combination sent Thatch to the canvas, and Nelson pounced on him to secure the submission win via rear-naked choke. Striking wasn’t always a major part of Nelson’s repertoire, but it’s clear he has focused his development on that aspect of his game.

Look for him to utilize his striking en route to a unanimous-decision victory over Maia.

Jacare Souza ($10,200)

Yoel Romero is a scary finisher with great athleticism, wrestling technique and raw power, but he doesn’t stand much of a chance against a Brazilian jiu-jitsu master like Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.

Jacare isn’t a freak athlete like Romero. However, it’s not as if Souza is a stiff, or a fighter who is physically weaker than most in his division. What he lacks in freakish athleticism, he more than compensates for with flawless technique and relentless pursuit of submission wins.

There will be some initial danger for Souza when Romero is fresh. Romero’s power will be at its most dangerous in the first round. After a few scrambles, he has shown the tendency to tire in his bouts and to get careless with his defense.

Because of this, Jacare will get the bout to the ground at some point. When he does, he will show his superiority on the mat as he wears down Romero. A stoppage win via submission or TKO from ground-and-pound strikes is a likely result for Souza.

Luke Rockhold ($9,400)

Few champions have proved their mettle as much as middleweight titleholder Chris Weidman. He’s beaten Anderson Silva twice, handled Lyoto Machida and mauled Vitor Belfort.

Even with those impressive victories under his belt, Weidman has never faced an opponent as good or well-rounded as Luke Rockhold. The challenger is better at this stage of his career than Silva, Machida and Belfort were when they faced Weidman.

His athleticism and creativity as a striker is on par, or superior to what Machida brought to the Octagon, but his ground game is going to be the aspect of his arsenal that surprises people.

It shouldn’t be news, considering Rockhold has won his last two fights by submission over Machida and Michael Bisping. Most give Weidman a huge edge on the ground.

UFC bantamweight Chris Holdsworth was one of several fighters and trainers asked to pick a winner of the fight. He seemed to be among those expecting Weidman to have his way on the ground. Per Brett Okamoto of ESPN.com, Holdsworth said:

My heart is telling me Weidman. I think Rockhold is a very well-rounded fighter who poses a threat everywhere, but I think Weidman has better wrestling and his ground game is tremendous. A lot of people underestimate his grappling and, as you can see, his standup has been looking better each fight. He knocked out Anderson Silva and you can say it was a fluke, but he’s got knockout power.

Perhaps it is Rockhold’s ground game that is being underestimated. Weidman is very respected for his wrestling prowess—and rightfully so—but Rockhold is strong and skilled enough to find an opening for his high-level submission game. He won’t simply stay on the mat while Weidman pounds on him the way Belfort did.

Rockhold isn’t just going to beat Weidman, he’s going to shock people with how easy he makes it look. Mark Rockhold down for a third-round win by submission.

Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter.

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Daily Fantasy MMA: Best DraftKings Picks for UFC 193 Rousey vs. Holm Card

UFC 193 is a tough event to figure out if you’re a DraftKings player. There are large disparities between the favorites and underdogs as it pertains to fighter salaries. Whenever that’s the case, it’s even more difficult finding fighters to draft.
The …

The main event features the UFC’s biggest draw, but is Ronda Rousey worth her huge DK salary?

Holly Holm‘s ($8,000) length, striking and fight IQ give her the best chance of anyone to beat Rousey. But I don’t have the heart to predict an outright upset, though I’ve gone bold before—on more than one occasion.

Perhaps Holm doesn’t have to shock the world to help you win. In DraftKings MMA contests, you have to either find a low-cost fighter capable of pulling an upset, or pick the most productive loser. Holm has a slight chance to be the former, but an even better shot at being the latter.

By a country mile, Holm will be the best striker Rousey has faced in her career. Holm is also the best athlete the champion will have fought. While Rousey has been working diligently on her striking, chances are, it’s not superior to the skills Holm has honed during her lengthy run as a world-class female boxer.

Holm also has some powerful and rangy leg kicks that her opponents must avoid.

Believe it or not, Rousey‘s striking defense isn’t stellar. She blocks just 51 percent of the strikes thrown at her and has absorbed 2.63 strikes per minute in the Octagon, per FightMetric.com. If this fight stays standing for more than a round, Holm‘s chances of doing something special rise significantly.

Something tells me Rousey will want to make a statement by beating Holm at her own game. She’ll probably only go for a submission if she tries her hand at striking and can’t get it done. Her search for a challenge could be her undoing.

Rousey‘s doing a little more than flirting with the idea of going to WWE. She’s also a movie star, and Holm hasn’t done anything to make this fight personal for the champion.

Mix all that in with the fact that Holm is an extraordinary athlete, and you have a formula for what could be a surprising main event at UFC 193 in Australia.

If nothing else, this fight will not be a first-round slaughter along the lines of what we’ve seen in almost all of the champion’s previous fights. You can’t draft all of the favorites, and you don’t have enough DK budget to draft Rousey and Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

Give Holm a serious look.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Rousey has been the most dominant champion, but Jedrzejczyk ($11,300) has an easier matchup on Saturday. With all due respect to Valerie Letourneau, her grind-it-out style will not get the job done against the striking and takedown defense Jedrzejczyk brings to the table.

Jedrzejczyk is the best female striker in the sport, and Letourneau usually gets hit a lot. In her bouts, she has taken 3.73 strikes per minute, per FightMetric.com.

Against a fighter like Jedrzejczyk, that’s not a good look. If you’re looking for one of the most sure stoppage wins on the card, it’s Jedrzejczyk over Letourneau.

Mark Hunt Will Smash Bigfoot

The first meeting between Mark Hunt ($10,500) and Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva is probably the single greatest heavyweight fight in UFC history. Unfortunately, the memory of the bout is a bit tainted by Silva’s failed post-fight drug test.

Silva had elevated testosterone levels, and that raised the red flag.

The two are going to get it on again on Saturday, but don’t expect it to be as competitive in the rematch. Since his suspension, Silva’s record in the Octagon is 1-2, with his only win coming in his last fight against Soa Palelei on August 1.

Palelei is not a striker primarily, and he’s also pretty darn overrated. Silva has struggled with proficient strikers in his career. He’s also shown decreased effectiveness since the failed drug test.

Hunt has been knocked out in each of his last two fights, but the losses came against two elite fighters in champion Fabricio Werdum and top contender Stipe Miocic.

Silva is not on either of those guy’s level. Because this fight will probably turn into a brawl, Hunt’s power and superior quickness should allow him to connect first. With these guys, it may only take one punch.

Uriah Hall Will Make Another Statement

We’ve long known about Uriah Hall’s ($9,800) outstanding ability, but he’s beginning to live up to expectations. Fresh off a spectacular KO win over Gegard Mousasi in September, Hall stepped in for the injured Michael Bisping to battle Robert Whittaker.

Hall’s quick-twitch athleticism and deadly striking will produce a KO win and a big piece of fantasy production. Whittaker’s striking defense is poor, as he often gets emotional and reckless in the Octagon. We saw that in his loss to Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson in February 2014.

Since then, Whittaker has won three fights in a row, but he’s yet to face a striker with tools like Thompson—until now. Hall will enjoy a six-inch reach advantage and an edge in speed and fight IQ.

Bank on a KO win for Hall.

Struve Will Solve Rosholt

Stefan Struve doesn’t always use his 7-foot frame the way it should be utilized, but against Jared Rosholt, he has an opponent who will struggle to take advantage of his own strengths.

Rosholt wants to wrestle and use his strength to overpower opponents on the ground, but getting inside on Struve‘s legs is difficult. He has a respectable takedown defense percentage of 68 percent, per FightMetric.com.

If the fight does go to the ground, Struve‘s submission skills are notable. In his long UFC career, he’s won by submission four times. Where the Skyscraper is vulnerable is in stand-up exchanges where his warrior spirit can get the best of him.

However, only some of the best heavyweights in the world have been able to find Struve‘s chin. Hunt, Roy Nelson, Travis Browne, Junior dos Santos and Alistair Overeem are the only men to KO Struve in the UFC.

Rosholt doesn’t belong in those guys’ company. Struve will win this one by lopsided decision or submission.

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Daily Fantasy MMA: DraftKings Picks for Dan Henderson vs. Vitor Belfort 3 Card

DraftKings players ought to avoid the third fight in the Dan Henderson vs. Vitor Belfort trilogy. While there’s some logic in taking Belfort ($10,800) considering he flattened Henderson with a first-round KO via head kick in November 2013, there’s more…

The post-testosterone replacement therapy version of the 38-year-old Belfort is not the KO artist he used to be. Belfort has fought just once since then. He was stopped in the first round by UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman.

Because we know Henderson ($8,600) has a legendary chin, it’s difficult to imagine Belfort connecting with Henderson and stopping him again. Likewise, a Henderson stoppage win seems far-fetched. He wants to load up his powerful right hand—which he used to stop Tim Boetsch in June—and put his opponent’s lights out.

The 45-year-old legend simply isn’t as efficient with his one-dimensional plan these days. He’s won just two of his last seven fights. This bout screams: boring unanimous decision with low fantasy totals.

Instead, here’s a list of the fighters you should tab in Saturday’s card.

Thomas Almeida ($10,900)

Thomas Almeida is a must for any DK lineup for this event. In fact, there are few more automatic DraftKings selections in the UFC. He has secured wins in all three of his fights in the UFC. Two of those wins have come by stoppage. In the process, he’s averaging 95.2 fantasy points per fight.

On Saturday, he’ll tangle with a good fighter in Anthony Birchak.

While Birchak possesses some power—as evidenced by his TKO of Joe Soto in June, he doesn’t have the complete toolbox of strikes and grappling game Almeida possesses. Per FightMetric.com, Almeida lands seven strikes per minute with 50 percent accuracy. Because Birchak wants to land a big shot, he should be there to hit.

Performing in front of his home fans for the second time in his UFC career should have Almeida charged and ready to shine. Bank on a TKO finish from the dynamic Brazilian.

Chas Skelly ($10,100)

Not many people regard Chas Skelly as one of the top young featherweights in the UFC. The more he wins, the more he may ultimately deserve to be seen as a contender. He’s won three fights in a row, with all three coming by stoppage.

On Saturday, he will face a tough, powerful and aggressive striker in Brazil’s Edmilson “Kevin” Souza ($9,300). The latter has 15 wins, with 13 of them coming by KO or TKO. That includes two straight KO wins in the UFC.

Souza is a thought—especially considering his reasonable salary—but Skelly is my pick to win. While he gets the most attention for his grappling and submission skills, Skelly is also an improved striker.

He dismantled Jim Alers with punches and knees en route to a TKO victory in February. He won’t want to spend a ton of time trading with Souza, but Skelly can hold his own long enough to take the fight to the ground. There, he has a big advantage over Souza.

The latter has acquired all three losses on his professional record via submission. On Saturday, Skelly will make it four.

Gleison Tibau ($9,800)

Abel Trujillo has a comparable salary at $9,600, but Gleison Tibau is the smarter pick in this fight. Trujillo has never shown much of a ground game. Against a guy like Tibau, that’s a fatal flaw. Trujillo is a powerful striker with a sturdy chin, but technically, Tibau should eat him for lunch. Emotion is perhaps Trujillo’s best weapon and biggest flaw. He can often burn himself out, or put himself in harm’s way because of his aggression.

The uber-experienced 32-year-old Brazilian has 33 professional wins, with 13 by submission. Tibau will be looking to take advantage of Trujillo’s wildness. It shouldn’t take long for this fight to go to the ground, and once it does, Tibau will pick up the submission victory.

Viscardi Andrade ($9,500)

Despite losing his last fight via unanimous decision to Nicholas Musoke in February 2014, Viscardi Andrade is still an intriguing welterweight. He’s a little stiff, but he’s powerful and proficient on the ground.

Andrade is the pick here because he has perhaps the most favorable matchup of any fighter with a salary below $10,000. Gasan Umalatov seems like a prime candidate for release in the near future. In his last fight, he lost a split decision to Cathal Pendred in October 2014.

That was his second loss in three UFC bouts. He’s a very one-dimensional grappler with slow feet and hands. On athleticism alone, Andrade should take the upper hand and finish this with a TKO, or a fantasy-productive unanimous-decision win.

Gilbert Burns ($9,400)

Despite being undefeated in his professional mixed martial arts career, Gilbert Burns has shown some vulnerability in his most recent fights. He needed a third-round armbar to beat Alex Oliveira in March, and he went the distance with Andreas Stahl in his UFC debut in 2012.

On Saturday, Burns faces rugged Russian Rashid Magomedov. The latter prefers to dispatch his opponents with strikes, but he may find it difficult to get a bead on Burns. The Brazilian will be the quicker and stronger fighter, though his striking isn’t as refined as his opponent’s.

Chances are he knows that, and thus Burns will likely be working to take the fight to the ground, where he can pile up points while in top control. He’ll make attempts to finish with submission, but it seems unlikely he’ll complete the process.

Instead, Burns is a better pick to win via unanimous decision.

Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter

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Daily Fantasy MMA: Best DraftKings Picks for Holohan vs. Smolka Fight Card

The UFC Fight Night in Dublin card on Saturday has been ripped to shreds by injury, but the DraftKings show must go on. The event has lost a heavyweight scrap between Stipe Miocic and Ben Rothwell because of an injury to the former.
On Wednesday, the h…

On Wednesday, the headline bout was also cancelled as Joe Duffy was scratched from his bout with Dustin Poirier because of a mild concussion, per Tristen Critchfield of Sherdog.com.

The main event is now Paddy Holohan ($9,600) vs. Louis Smolka ($9,800), and DraftKings players would be wise to steer clear of this one.

Aside from the obvious similarities in DK salary, this bout is also less than appealing because of the way the two fighters’ styles mesh. Both men are very comfortable and experienced grapplers. Holohan has captured eight of his nine wins by submission. Smolka has nine professional victories, and four have come by way of submission.

Neither man has ever been stopped, let alone submitted; this has grappling battle written all over it. Neither man is averaging more than 63.3 fantasy points per bout. The fight seems like a prime candidate to end in a decision with very low point totals going to the winner.

Which fighter should anchor your team on this injury-ravaged card? Here are the five I recommend:

Safest Pick

Stevie Ray ($11,000)

In two UFC fights, Stevie Ray has proven to be explosive. He’s scored a knockout win in each of his fights with the promotion. On average, Ray has scored 101.5 fantasy points per bout.

He’s facing France’s rugged Mickael Lebout, who has been stopped just once in his career. That loss came via doctor’s stoppage back in 2013 against Elijah Bokelli in the Supreme League Finals.

While LeBout has proven to be a tough man to halt in his career, he’s had just one fight in the UFC. This will be a major step up for him, and Ray is a hungry fighter looking for a stoppage victory.

The speed advantage will be heavily in his favor, as will the crowd support for the 25-year-old from Scotland. He’ll ride the wave to an early stoppage victory.

Sleeper Pick

Reza Madadi ($8,600)

After a two-year absence from the UFC, Reza Madadi is making his return to the promotion. He has one of the lowest DK salaries in the event, but there’s reason to believe in him.

The last time we saw Madadi, he submitted the highly regarded Michael Johnson via Brabo Choke back in April 2013. On Saturday, he’ll be taking on crowd favorite Norman Parke.

The latter is a tough cookie who will always battle his opponent, but Parke has also struggled to finish opponents in the UFC. He has just one win by stoppage in the promotion. He fights with a ton of emotion, and that causes him to lose advantageous positions at times.

The veteran Madadi has the type of superior ground game that enables him to take advantage of those types of errors. Parke has lost two straight fights, and I’m going to go out on a limb and say the streak hits three.

The two men have a combined 20 wins by submission in their careers, but I believe Madadi’s ground game is a little tighter. He will get the better of Parke during scrambles and parlay one of those opportunities into a rear-naked choke for the win.

The Rest

Why Tom Breese ($10,000)

In his lone UFC bout against Luiz Jorge Dutra Jr. in May 2014, Breese racked up 117 fantasy points in his first-round KO. He’s facing Cathal Pendred on Saturday, and Breese has several advantages in this fight.

Pendred is one of the worst strikers in the UFC. Aside from his slow feet and hands, Pendred averages just 2.58 strikes per minute, per FightMetric.com. His defense also leaves a bit to be desired. He stops only 51 percent of the strikes thrown at him.

Breese has the speed and length at 6’3″ to take advantage of Pendred’s subpar athleticism.

Pendred is tough and has a great chin, but Breese should experience great success picking him apart in the stand-up game.

The only chance Pendred has to win is to get the fight to the ground, but even there Breese can handle himself. Six of his eight wins have come by submission.

This one should end in a win for Breese by second-round submission or via a dominant unanimous decision where he racks up fantasy points with strikes.

Why Till

The Darren Till vs. Nicolas Dalby bout is one of the toughest to call. Both men have very good stand-up skills, but there’s something about Till’s quick-twitch athleticism and explosiveness that makes me think he’ll win.

He won his UFC debut in impressive fashion as he scored a KO win over Wendell de Oliveira Marques in May. Dalby also won his first and only UFC bout over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos on the same card.

This bout should be entertaining while it lasts. Both men can really crack, but based on what we saw in May and in fights before they arrived in the UFC, Till appears to have an edge in speed. In a fight that should be contested primarily on the feet, Till is the pick to win by TKO or KO.

Why Bush

It’s been more than a year since Bubba Bush last appeared in the Octagon. It was his debut, and it didn’t go so well. He was knocked out in 61 seconds by Kevin Casey in July 2014, but the result was overturned after Casey failed a post-fight drug test for anabolic steroids.

Before that, Bush had made a solid name for himself in the Legacy Fighting Championship. He’d won his last four fights, with two victories coming by submission and the other two by KO.

On Saturday, he will face South African Garreth McLellan. The latter is primarily a submissions fighter whose striking and takedown defense left a lot to be desired in his UFC debut against Bartosz Fabinski in April.

McLellan’s striking defense was at just 22 percent, and his takedown defense was at nine. Bush is a bull who likes to apply pressure.

His strength and athleticism will close the distance against McLellan and lead to a KO victory.

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Daily Fantasy MMA: DraftKings Picks for Cormier vs. Gustafsson UFC 192 Card

The main event for UFC 192 on Saturday is light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier vs. Alexander Gustafsson. The fight has the potential to be a great scrap, and for what it’s worth, Cormier is my pick to win. That said, DraftKings players would …

Cormier’s salary is a whopping $11,000, which will drastically handicap your ability to fill out the rest of your lineup with winners. Gustafsson has a shot to win—or at least go the distance. Either of those scenarios would be bad for DraftKings players who take Cormier.

The best selection for the UFC 192 card is Sage Northcutt ($10,500). The dynamic 19-year-old lightweight has a bright future and a fantasy-friendly opponent in front of him for his UFC debut.

Francisco Trevino is a rugged competitor who will oblige Northcutt if he wants to stand and trade. If the fight goes to the ground, Trevino does defend chokes well, but he can be sloppy with his positioning. Against a big and strong young fighter like Northcutt, that could be the difference between surviving a scrum on the mat and being stopped with vicious ground-and-pound.

Northcutt is a dynamic striker who has captured three of his five wins by knockout. The other two wins came by way of submission. No fighter has gone the distance with him as of yet, and Trevino won’t be the first.

The takedown might be the best approach for Northcutt in this one. Trevino has only stopped 43 percent of takedown attempts in the UFC. There’s the potential for a slip-up from Northcutt as he tries hard to impress in his debut, but his talent level and versatility will shine through and rack up fantasy points.

Here’s a look at the rest of the ideal lineup for UFC 192.

Viktor Pesta ($10,000)

Derrick Lewis is a one-trick pony and made to order for Viktor Pesta. Lewis is looking to land a massive right hand in the first two minutes of a fight. If he doesn’t connect, his chances of winning are greatly reduced.

He has 12 wins in his MMA career, with six of them by first-round KO. Two of his three wins in the UFC have come from strikes in the first frame. Stamina is the main issue with Lewis, and that’s not a problem for Pesta.

The 25-year-old from the Czech Republic brings a diverse skill set into the Octagon. He has seven stoppages (four KOs, three submissions) in his 11 professional fights. While he can thump with his hands, he sets up almost everything with the takedown.

While he hasn’t been accurate in that regard just yet in the UFC (22 percent), that should change against Lewis, who has only stopped 50 percent of the takedown attempts against him.

Before the clinch or a shot takes place, Pesta may have to prove himself momentarily on the feet. Lewis has major power, so Pesta will have to be careful. However, Lewis’ defense has been non-existent (36 percent strike defense).

He’s also been knocked out twice (Shawn Jordan and Matt Mitrione) in just over a year. There are just too many reasons to like Pesta in this fight. He wins and gets the finish within the first two rounds—one way or the other.

Islam Makhachev ($9,700)

The fight between Islam Makhachev and Adriano Martins is a toss-up as both fighters are slotted at $9,700. This is a classic clash of styles as Makhachev is similar to his countryman and teammate, Khabib Nurmagomedov. Makhachev wants to take his opponents down, but that may not be so easy against Martins.

The Brazilian has 80 percent takedown defense in his UFC career. In Martins’ last fight, he took on another of Makhachev’s countrymen, Rustam Khabilov.

Martins was able to stuff all four of Khabilov’s attempts to take him down. In fact, he countered by securing all four of his own takedowns. That gives reason to believe in Martins a bit in this fight, and it explains why the salaries are so close. Something has to give in this area, as there’s seemingly no way Makhachev is going to abandon his sambo background.

Makhachev is a different animal than Khabilov. The latter prefers to strike and hasn’t finished a fight via submission in over five years. Makhachev’s last three wins have come by submission, and his takedown accuracy is better than Khabilov’s (60 percent to 43).

To put it plainly, Martins is facing the next level of the fearsome Russian lightweight trifecta (Khabilov, Makhachev and Nurmagomedov), and we’ll be able to tell the difference on Saturday.

Makhachev will win a highly competitive bout via third-round submission.

Julianna Pena ($10,700)

Jessica Eye is one tough cookie, but she will crumble under the pressure, grappling prowess and determination that Julianna “The Venezuelan Vixen” Pena brings into the Octagon.

Pena is a whirlwind and has been a DraftKings player’s dreams in her two UFC fights by averaging a whopping 124 fantasy points per fight. Eye has only stopped 57 percent of the takedowns attempted against her, and most of her opponents have been inferior to Pena when it comes to grappling.

In Pena’s two UFC bouts, she’s a perfect 3-for-3 in takedowns. She could have more, but once she gets opponents to the mat, they generally don’t get back to their feet.

Bank on a first- or second-round stoppage win for The Venezuelan Vixen.

Alan Jouban ($9,100)

There has to be one lower-salaried pick on any DraftKings UFC contest, and Alan Jouban is the one for this event. He faces another promising young Russian fighter in Albert Tumenov. Unlike Makhachev and Nurmagomedov, Tumenov likes to get the job done standing as opposed to leaning on a grappling-based discipline.

Jouban is also primarily a striker—and a dynamic one at that. His fights are often among the most exciting when he performs. Both men attempt less than 0.5 takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon action.

If this fight is sounding like a potential classic stand-up scrap to you, then we’re on the same page here. In that type of fight, things can go either way, but Jouban has demonstrated resolve and toughness that will aid him in this fight. He’s quicker and more explosive than Tumenov, and in this matchup, those qualities should make the difference.

Jouban has already won two Fight of the Night bonuses for his work against Matt Dwyer and Seth Baczynski. Another thrilling win is in the cards for him on Saturday.

Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter

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Daily Fantasy MMA: DraftKings Picks for UFC Fight Night Barnett vs. Nelson Card

Knockout wins are great for UFC DraftKings contests. Saturday’s UFC Fight Night Japan features a main event with two bruising heavyweights, which usually all but guarantees a stoppage win for someone.
“The Warmaster” Josh Barnett ($10,800) takes on “Bi…

“The Warmaster” Josh Barnett ($10,800) takes on “Big Country” Roy Nelson in a battle between heavyweight veterans in need of a victory. Barnett was viciously knocked out by Travis Browne in his last fight back in December 2013.

Nelson has lost his last two fights, and neither of them have been close. In March, Nelson was picked apart by Alistair Overeem for three rounds in a lopsided unanimous-decision loss. Before that, he was knocked out by Mark Hunt in September 2014.

Against Barnett, he’ll be at a height and length disadvantage. Barnett stands 6’3″ with a 79″ reach compared to 6’0″ and a 72″ reach for Nelson. Conditioning is routinely an issue for Nelson in his fights. Despite a mature Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game, he’s usually restricted to winning fights with a big right hand because he doesn’t have the stamina to outwork an opponent on the ground.

Even if he did have the wind, Barnett might be the only heavyweight in the UFC Nelson can’t out-grapple. Barnett’s wrestling and submission skills are elite. When you group that skill set with his superior reach against a less-than-mobile Nelson, it’s hard to imagine Barnett losing this fight.

In his career, 28 of Barnett’s 33 wins have come by submission or KO. The Warmaster is the smart play in the main event. Here’s a look at all of the best DK picks for the card:

Kyoji Horiguchi ($11,000)

Kyoji Horiguchi has the home-field advantage on Saturday night as the 24-year-old Japanese star gets set to entertain his countrymen.

It wouldn’t be totally crazy to think that Horiguchi has a good chance to beat any flyweight not named Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. In his last fight, he was outclassed by Johnson en route to a last-second submission defeat at the hands of the pound-for-pound king.

On Saturday, Horiguchi will be taking on a tough, but physically overmatched Chico Camus.

What Camus lacks in pure athleticism he’s usually able to compensate for with heart and relentlessness. That won’t be the case against Horiguchi.

When it comes to speed and explosiveness, Horiguchi is second only to John Dodson in his weight class. He has 10 finishes in 15 professional wins, and he could be pushing for a stoppage to make amends for his loss against Johnson, and to please his home fans.

In any case, Horiguchi is one of the safer picks to make on this card.

Jingliang Li ($10,300)

All action fighters like Jingliang Li are a DK player’s dream. He lands an impressive 3.72 strikes per minute in his fights and he’s tough as nails. Despite his defense being relegated to an afterthought at times (3.6 strikes absorbed per minute) he has never been stopped in his career.

Based on those qualities alone you have to like Li to beat Keita Nakamura. The latter hasn’t fought in the UFC since 2006. He lost his last three fights in the promotion and has bounced around with smaller organizations since then. He’s compiled a solid record at 30-6, but he has wilted against top competition.

Li is the right pick on Saturday because even if he doesn’t defeat Nakamura—which he should—he’s going to throw a ton of punches to maximize a losing slot in your lineup. If he wins and doesn’t get the stoppage, he’s still liable to produce one of the more productive non-stoppage wins on the card.

Shinsho Anzai ($9,700)

Both Shinsho Anzai and Roger Zapata are carrying DK salaries of $9,700 heading into their preliminary bout. Anzai gets the edge in this toss up because he’s an absolute wild man with excellent striking.

He ran into a buzz saw in his UFC debut against the undefeated Alberto Mina, but Zapata isn’t on that level. In defeat, Anzai threw 7.24 strikes per minute and landed 61 percent of them.

Zapata is a slow starter who likes to work behind the jab. That could be a solid strategy against an aggressive fighter like Anzai, but I believe the Japanese fighter’s pressure and power will overwhelm Zapata.

In what could turn out to be a huge value selection, Anzai is the pick by first-round TKO.

Uriah Hall ($8,100)

You have to have a low-cost pick in any DK UFC contest, and Uriah Hall is the man to draft in this event with that concept. On pure talent, there’s no one on the card even close to him. That said, he’s underachieved in his UFC career and allowed himself to lose decisions to fighters he was simply better than.

He has won four of his last five fights and he now has the toughest test of his UFC career ahead of him in Gegard Mousasi. As a grappler, Mousasi is one of the best in the middleweight division. He has great experience with 44 professional fights, and it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him out-work Hall en route to a decision victory.

It’s also not hard to see Hall finally living up to his potential and scoring one of the highlight-reel KOs we saw him produce when he was a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter 17. He’s long, quick, explosive and well worth the investment at just $8,100 in DK salary.

Records, stats and physical references per FightMetric.com

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