Tag: Dave Herman

UFC 146 – Post Fight Recap

The only surprise in the main event at UFC 146 was that Frank Mir was able to survive the first round against Junior Dos Santos. Mir attempted to take Dos Santos to the mat almost.

The only surprise in the main event at UFC 146 was that Frank Mir was able to survive the first round against Junior Dos Santos. Mir attempted to take Dos Santos to the mat almost immediately after the fight began but was never close to succeeding. Dos Santos stuffed the attempt easily and from that point, Mir seemed to resign himself to being unable to ground his opponent and spent the next six minutes playing a dangerous game. He stood in front of Dos Santos without utilizing much motion. He managed to land a few low kicks and touched Dos Santos with his jab but the conclusion of the fight seemed inevitable. Dos Santos was obviously not threatened by Mir’s striking and waited patiently for his opportunity to attack. He landed his first big punch at the end of the first round and followed with a flurry that pushed Mir back against the cage. The fight would have ended there if not for the bell signaling the end of the round. One would think that after feeling Dos Santos’ power, Mir would come out in the second round and desperately try to drag the fight to the ground. Instead, Mir employed the same strategy of standing in front of his opponent throwing low kicks. Predictably, the champion eventually landed a counter right hand that sent Mir reeling. Dos Santos landed a few more punches on the ground and Mir seemed to lose his bearings in the cage as he rolled toward nowhere in particular. Dos Santos used the opportunity to land one last hammer fist before Herb Dean stepped in to stop the fight. He probably could have let it go on longer but the outcome was inevitable and the stoppage saved Mir from suffering the brutal knockout that was clearly on its way. Mir will continue to be a fixture in the UFC heavyweight division but he doesn’t have the tools to be a champion in this era of MMA. Dos Santos will await the UFC’s decision as to who he will fight next. That fight will likely come against either Alistair Overeem after his nine month suspension or Cain Velasquez after his performance in the fight preceding Dos Santos’.

Cain Velasquez earned a gory victory over Antonio Silva with a first round TKO. Silva started the fight with a kick. Velasquez caught it and put Silva on his back. Silva appeared to be defending well until Velasquez slipped an elbow through his guard and opened a huge gushing cut on the bridge of Silva’s nose. The blood squirted from the cut directly into both of Silva’s eyes and made it impossible for him to defend himself. Velasquez took advantage and eventually was able to land several big punches in a row to earn the first round stoppage. This fight will undoubtedly reopen the debate as to the place of elbows on the ground in the sport but the real story is whether this performance was enough to earn Velasquez an immediate title shot rematch against Dos Santos. Alistair Overeem will return from his suspension in nine months and the UFC seems determined to give him the opportunity to fight for its belt despite the fact that Overeem is widely considered to be one the sport’s most blatant PED users. Many people within the sport speculated that a decisive victory by Velasquez would earn him the next title shot ahead of Overeem. The question coming out of this fight is how much of a statement did he make. The elbow that cut Silva was a glancing blow and had it not opened a freakish cut, who knows how the rest of the fight would have progressed. We may have seen a different outcome if Silva hadn’t been blinded by his own blood. But the elbow did cause the cut and Velasquez did exactly what he was supposed to do by seizing the opportunity to finish the fight. The UFC will have a difficult decision to make as to who deserves the next title shot but the one certainty is that the heavyweight division is deeper than ever before and several different interesting matchups are available.

Roy Nelson is a fan favorite for a reason. Actually, for several reasons. Fans love his belly, his beard and his right hand. Against Dave Herman, we got to see all three of them. But only for a short period of time. Nelson dispatched Herman in less than a minute with an overhand right flash knockout. The fight didn’t leave much room for analysis and because it was so short, we didn’t really learn anything about either fighter. Herman is a good fighter and anyone can get caught with a punch. Based on the short amount of time we got to see him fight, he seemed to have a good gameplan of trying to use his length to keep Nelson on the outside. We also didn’t learn anything new about Nelson. He has always had power in his hands and when he lands on the chin, the body to which that chin is attached usually crumples. Every Nelson victory is a victory for the fans who want him to remain in the UFC as long as possible and a knockout like that is the best way to secure his place on the biggest stage.

Stipe Miocic continued to progress through the UFC’s heavyweight division with a second round TKO victory over Shane Del Rosario. Del Rosario won the first round by repeatedly landing heavy kicks to Miocic’s body and legs. Miocic’s only weapon in that first round was his right hand and he was unable to land it cleanly. At the end of the first round, Miocic realized he could use his wrestling to easily put Del Rosario on his back and from that point on, Miocic completely controlled the fight. He took Del Rosario down again early in the second round and earned the victory by pummeling his opponent with hammer fists and elbows from the half guard. Del Rosario was unable to mount any defense and never really attempted to sweep or even regain full guard. If he hopes to compete in the UFC, he will need to put forth a better effort that he showed in this fight as he seemed to stop fighting once Miocic gained top position. For Miocic, this was an improvement over his last performance and he has showed growth in each of his UFC fights thus far. He is ready for a stiffer test and if he continues to improve, he could develop into an interesting presence in the UFC’s heavyweight division.

Going into the main card opener between Lavar Johnson and Stefan Struve, everyone who follows MMA knew that the fight had two possible outcomes. Either Johnson was going to land a punch and knock out Struve or Struve was going to get the fight to the ground and finish with a submission. Johnson did start aggressively and pushed Struve back against the cage with a flurry of punches. He landed one decent right hand but nothing clean enough to drop Struve. Having felt a hint of his opponent’s power, Struve grabbed an overhook and jumped guard. He pulled Johnson to the mat and quickly locked on to an arm bar to win the fight via first round submission. Struve did exactly what he needed to do in this fight and while he didn’t necessarily prove anything or show any growth, he did add a win to his record and earn the right to continue moving forward in the heavyweight division. If Johnson refuses to acknowledge the ground game, he will quickly find his way out of the UFC and back to smaller shows as a part of fights designed to put two big men in a cage and see who falls first. Hopefully, he’ll choose to work on the weak aspects of his game and come back with a skill set that can keep him competing at the highest level.

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir — Live Main Card Results and Commentary


(Damn, Junior…give away your gameplan much? / Photo courtesy of MMAFighting.com)

After a preliminary card dominated by relatively normal-sized men — borrrrring! — we’ve finally arrived at tonight’s central theme: Big sons-of-bitches. That’s right, UFC 146‘s main card features five consecutive heavyweight fights, most of which look pretty damn entertaining on paper. Can massive underdog Frank Mir pull off Impossible Career Comeback #2, or will he succumb to the buzzsaw-like boxing of Junior Dos Santos, just like so many before him? Can Lavar Johnson score two knockouts in the same month (!), or is he in over his head — figuratively, and otherwise — against Stefan Struve? And does Roy Nelson really think he’s doing himself any favors with that ratty-ass gray beard?


(Damn, Junior…give away your gameplan much? / Photo courtesy of MMAFighting.com)

After a preliminary card dominated by relatively normal-sized men — borrrrring! — we’ve finally arrived at tonight’s central theme: Big sons-of-bitches. That’s right, UFC 146‘s main card features five consecutive heavyweight fights, most of which look pretty damn entertaining on paper. Can massive underdog Frank Mir pull off Impossible Career Comeback #2, or will he succumb to the buzzsaw-like boxing of Junior Dos Santos, just like so many before him? Can Lavar Johnson score two knockouts in the same month (!), or is he in over his head — figuratively, and otherwise — against Stefan Struve? And does Roy Nelson really think he’s doing himself any favors with that ratty-ass gray beard?

Live-blogging the UFC 146 main card for us is Anthony Gannon, who will be stacking round-by-round results after the jump starting at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT. Refresh the page for all the latest, and throw down your thoughts in the comments section. Thanks for being here, guys.

Well, shit. Due to a poorly timed server meltdown, we weren’t able to do the liveblog tonight; our deepest apologies. Hopefully most of you caught the pay-per-view because it was entertaining as hell, and none of the five heavyweight fights made it out of the second round. In short: Junior Dos Santos is still the UFC heavyweight champion, thanks to a dominant striking performance against Frank Mir, and Cain Velasquez made Antonio Silva‘s face look bloodier than anyone’s since Joe Stevenson. The full UFC 146 results are below; we’ll talk more tomorrow.

Main Card
Junior dos Santos def. Frank Mir via TKO, 3:04 of round 2
Cain Velasquez def. Antonio Silva via TKO, 3:36 of round 1
Roy Nelson def. Dave Herman via KO, 0:51 of round 1
Stipe Mio?i? def. Shane del Rosario via TKO, 3:14 of round 2
Stefan Struve def. Lavar Johnson via submission (armbar), 1:05 of round 1

Preliminary Card on FX
Darren Elkins def. Diego Brandao via unanimous decision (29-28 x 3)
Jamie Varner def. Edson Barboza via TKO, 3:23 of round 1
C.B. Dollaway def. Jason Miller via unanimous decision, (29-28 x 2, 30-26)
Dan Hardy def. Duane Ludwig via KO, 3:51 of round 1

Preliminary Card on Facebook
Paul Sass def. Jacob Volkmann via submission (triangle armbar), 1:54 of round 1
Glover Teixeira def. Kyle Kingsbury via submission (arm-triangle choke), 1:53 of round 1
Mike Brown def. Daniel Pineda via unanimous decision (29-28 x 3)

‘UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir’ Main Card Preview and Predictions

(A helpful little video-primer, via YouTube.com/UFC)

By Ryan Sarr

What better way to kick off the summer this Memorial Day weekend than with the star-studded, all-heavyweight UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir. Though Alistair Overeem’s drug test dodging/excuse-making skills weren’t enough to save the original UFC 146 main event, we’re still in for a spectacular heavyweight title tilt with JDS and Frank Mir.

Dos Santos made his UFC debut almost four years ago at UFC 90, and three days before the fight Dana White posted footage of JDS hitting mits on his online video blog. Dos Santos’s hands looked incredible, and suddenly money came pouring in on the heavy underdog to beat Fabricio Werdum, which he did in devastating fashion. Since then, Dos Santos has put together the best resume in UFC Heavyweight history, destroying everyone in his path. So, is Mir going to be just another notch on JDS’s belt, or will JDS have an appointment with the orthopedic surgeon Sunday morning? Join me as I break down each fight on UFC 146’s main card, and don’t forget to come back to CagePotato tomorrow night for our liveblog of the event.

Junior Dos Santos (14-1, 8-0 UFC) vs. Frank Mir (16-5, 14-5 UFC)

They say that styles make fights, and Saturday night’s heavyweight championship is going to be a clash between two men who are the best in the division at their chosen styles. Junior Dos Santos is so confident in his boxing skills that he says he could hang with the Klitschko brothers with three months’ training, and Frank Mir’s jiu-jitsu is so good that he broke Minotauro Nogueira’s arm after Nogueira had Mir teetering on unconsciousness. Both of these men have a wealth of Octagon experience, but neither man has ever fought into the championship rounds of a fight. That shouldn’t be an issue Saturday night, however, for this fight will probably end well before the final bell.

For Dos Santos, the game plan is simple: keep this fight on the feet. Dos Santos’ belief in his hands has to be at an all-time high, as he’s coming off his knockout of previously undefeated former champion Cain Velasquez in 64 seconds. If JDS can control the Octagon against Mir and use his superb counter-punching, I can see him finishing Mir early. Dos Santos has very quick hands for a heavyweight, and his uppercut is devastating. Just one counter hook or uppercut, and it could be lights out for Mir.


(A helpful little video-primer, via YouTube.com/UFC)

By Ryan Sarr

What better way to kick off the summer this Memorial Day weekend than with the star-studded, all-heavyweight UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir. Though Alistair Overeem’s drug test dodging/excuse-making skills weren’t enough to save the original UFC 146 main event, we’re still in for a spectacular heavyweight title tilt with JDS and Frank Mir.

Dos Santos made his UFC debut almost four years ago at UFC 90, and three days before the fight Dana White posted footage of JDS hitting mits on his online video blog. Dos Santos’s hands looked incredible, and suddenly money came pouring in on the heavy underdog to beat Fabricio Werdum, which he did in devastating fashion. Since then, Dos Santos has put together the best resume in UFC Heavyweight history, destroying everyone in his path. So, is Mir going to be just another notch on JDS’s belt, or will JDS have an appointment with the orthopedic surgeon Sunday morning? Join me as I break down each fight on UFC 146′s main card, and don’t forget to come back to CagePotato tomorrow night for our liveblog of the event.

Junior Dos Santos (14-1, 8-0 UFC) vs. Frank Mir (16-5, 14-5 UFC)

They say that styles make fights, and Saturday night’s heavyweight championship is going to be a clash between two men who are the best in the division at their chosen styles. Junior Dos Santos is so confident in his boxing skills that he says he could hang with the Klitschko brothers with three months’ training, and Frank Mir’s jiu-jitsu is so good that he broke Minotauro Nogueira’s arm after Nogueira had Mir teetering on unconsciousness. Both of these men have a wealth of Octagon experience, but neither man has ever fought into the championship rounds of a fight. That shouldn’t be an issue Saturday night, however, for this fight will probably end well before the final bell.

For Dos Santos, the game plan is simple: keep this fight on the feet. Dos Santos’ belief in his hands has to be at an all-time high, as he’s coming off his knockout of previously undefeated former champion Cain Velasquez in 64 seconds. If JDS can control the Octagon against Mir and use his superb counter-punching, I can see him finishing Mir early. Dos Santos has very quick hands for a heavyweight, and his uppercut is devastating. Just one counter hook or uppercut, and it could be lights out for Mir.

Mir’s striking skills have gotten better in the past few years, as he has outstruck and finished notable strikers Mirko Cro Cop and Chieck Kongo, but Mir would not be wise to try his luck on the feet Saturday night. As Mir has stated, he’s looking to pull guard on Dos Santos, and work off his back to submit him. It has to worry Dos Santos that Mir just snapped the arm of the man who teaches him jiu-jitsu, and I don’t see any circumstance where JDS would voluntarily go to the ground with Mir, even following a knockdown. So, the key to this fight, in my mind, is the clinch game. Mir has shown that he is vulnerable to the uppercut in the clinch, and Dos Santos could easily finish the fight there, but if Mir can control the clinch and get Dos Santos to the ground, it might be time to prep the surgery room for Dos Santos.

Prediction: Dos Santos’ is a great defensive wrestler, and has never been taken to the ground for a significant amount of time. I don’t see Frank Mir being able to change that; JDS will keep this fight standing and finish Mir in the first round with a trademark uppercut.

Cain Velasquez (9-1, 7-1 UFC) vs. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva (16-3, 0-0 UFC)

This matchup seems tailor-made for Velasquez to rebound following his November loss to Junior Dos Santos. Velasquez was steamrolling the competition before he was caught by a right hand from JDS at UFC on Fox 1. He still remains the best wrestler in the heavyweight division, and even though he weighs only 245 lbs, Velasquez has proven he has no problem handling bigger guys like Silva, who will probably weigh over 275 lbs on Saturday night. Plus, his American Kickboxing Academy teammate Daniel Cormier just demolished Silva last September in the semi-finals of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix.

Silva looked impressive in his victory over Fedor Emelianenko, but how much of that can be attributed to Fedor’s waning abilities and Silva’s sheer size advantage? Silva just doesn’t have an area of advantage in this fight. Velasquez is very similar in style to Cormier, in that he is a world-class wrestler that can easily take you down and pound on you, and he can also stand in front of you and knock you out. Silva is not going to outwork and outpoint Velasquez, his only shot in this fight is to connect with punches early and get a quick knockout like Junior Dos Santos did. I just don’t think Velasquez will give him the chance.

Prediction: Velasquez keeps the pressure on Silva with takedowns and solid ground and pound, and grinds out a unanimous decision victory, never giving Silva a chance to knock him out.

Dave Herman (21-3, 1-1 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (16-7, 3-3 UFC)

Both fighters come into this fight following losses in their last outings, Nelson to Fabricio Werdum and Herman to Stefan Struve. It is Nelson, however, who seems to have the advantage in this fight. Nelson has fought much better opponents than Herman, and even knocked out Struve in under a minute when they fought a couple years ago. Nelson has a great right hand, solid takedowns, and the ability to do serious damage on the ground. Herman prefers to stand and strike, and is not afraid to be aggressive with his attacks. Both of these fighters have questionable gas tanks though, and the winner could very well be the man whose cardio holds up over three rounds. Herman’s best chance is to knock out Nelson, but those chances are slim, for Nelson has proven to be very difficult to finish.

Prediction: Roy Nelson bounces back and just like he did to Kimbo, gives Dave Herman the Big Country crucifix en route to a second-round stoppage.

Stipe Miocic (8-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Shane Del Rosario (11-0, 0-0 UFC)

In their 19 combined fights, only one has gone the distance, and the undefeated Del Rosario has never even seen the third round of a fight. Though he hasn’t fought in over a year, Del Rosario looked impressive in his last fight when he dispatched fellow heavyweight prospect Lavar Johnson in the first round with an armbar. Miocic knocked out undefeated Philip de Fries in less than a minute in his last fight, and he has shown in his two Octagon outings that he has solid takedowns and effective striking. Del Rosario, however, is much better than anyone Miocic has ever fought, and I don’t think Miocic will be able to keep Del Rosario from taking him down and imposing his will.

Prediction: Look for Del Rosario to go for the takedown early, and from there advance his position while delivering lots of damage to Miocic. Miocic will just be another stepping stone for Del Rosario, who will win by first round TKO.

Lavar Johnson (17-5, 2-0 UFC) vs. Stefan Struve (23-5, 7-3 UFC)

This fight could very well be the Fight of the Night on Saturday. After fan-favorite Mark Hunt bowed out due to injury, Johnson stepped into his slot against Struve only three weeks removed from his destruction of Pat Barry at UFC on Fox 3. Both Johnson and Struve love to strike, and we could see lots of big punches traded between these two. The difference in this fight though is the ground game. While Struve has shown he is very adept on the ground, with 15 submission victories in his career, Johnson’s ground game (or lack thereof) was exposed by Pat Barry, who isn’t known for his submission or wrestling skills. Struve does have a susceptible chin however, with all three of his UFC losses coming by first-round knockout. So, if Johnson can land some of those big punches he landed against Barry on Struve, Johnson can easily take this fight. But Struve will likely try to get this fight to the ground, where he can work his submissions on Johnson, who surely didn’t grow a ground game in three weeks.

Prediction: While still very young, Stefan Struve has been somewhat of a heavyweight gatekeeper — and he will slam that gate closed on Johnson Saturday night. Struve by first-round triangle choke.

UFC 146 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir On Saturday night, the UFC’s highly anticipated all-heavyweight card arrives headlined by a title fight between champion Junior Dos Santos and challenger Frank Mir. With the unsurprising suspension of.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

On Saturday night, the UFC’s highly anticipated all-heavyweight card arrives headlined by a title fight between champion Junior Dos Santos and challenger Frank Mir. With the unsurprising suspension of Alistair Overeem for PED use causing major upheaval to the card, Frank Mir steps in to gain another shot at being a UFC champion. Unfortunately for him, he’ll be facing someone who presents a skill set he is ill-equipped to handle.

Junior Dos Santos has been plowing through the UFC’s heavyweight division since his arrival in 2009 reeling off nine straight victories with seven of those victories being finished by KO or TKO and six of those seven finishes coming in the first round. Only the chins of Shane Carwin and Roy Nelson were able to withstand the dynamite in Dos Santos’ hands and he’ll be looking to test Mir’s chin as early as possible. Dos Santos’ strategy isn’t complicated and it doesn’t take an expert to explain it. He has as much power as anyone in the division combined with excellent quickness and agility that allows him to explode into fight finishing combinations. He throws mainly two or three punch combinations and only needs to make contact with one of those punches to earn a victory. His boxing isn’t the most technical in MMA but is incredibly effective and he will be relying on it to defend his championship at UFC 146.

Frank Mir has four wins and two losses in his last six fights with the losses being knockouts suffered at the hands Shane Carwin and Brock Lesnar. In his last fight, he was knocked down by Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera before coming back to finish with one of the most impressive submissions ever in the heavyweight division. That history does not suggest success against a fighter like Dos Santos. He is going to have to find a way to avoid his opponent’s strikes and get the fight to the ground. That will be tough to do because Dos Santos will have the quickness advantage and has shown solid takedown defense in his fights thus far. Mir’s best chance of getting this fight to the ground might be to play possum if Dos Santos lands a glancing blow and try to get the champion to follow him to the ground in an attempt to finish. If Mir can somehow get the fight to the mat, he clearly has the skills to finish and Dos Santos would be wise to avoid that scenario at all costs. Even if he scores a knockdown, Dos Santos should stay on his feet and wait for Mir to get back up before engaging again. Even a stunned Frank Mir has the skills to submit Dos Santos if he decides to play the ground game.

Junior Dos Santos comes into this fight as a huge favorite at -550 with Mir the underdog at +425. That should tell you everything you need to know about this fight. Anything other than a first round knockout by Dos Santos will be a surprise but Frank Mir has surprised us before. While a win does seem unlikely, the chaos of a fight can lead to unexpected situations and if Dos Santos finds himself on the mat with Frank Mir, this fight will get interesting instantaneously. But if it stays on the feet, Dos Santos should be able to finish his opponent and retain the championship.

Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva

In a matchup of fighters trying to rebound from a loss, former UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez takes on Strikeforce import Antonio Silva. After losing the belt in his last fight, Velasquez will be looking to take the first step toward earning the opportunity to win back his belt by defeating a tough opponent in Silva.

Silva has made a career of being one of the best heavyweights in the world who hasn’t been tested by top competition. He has impressive victories on his resume over legends Andre Arlovski and Fedor Emelianenko but both of those victories came when those fighters were clearly out of their prime. He has three wins and two losses in his last five fights with the two losses coming against Fabricio Werdum and Daniel Cormier. Based on his recent history, Silva appears to be a UFC caliber heavyweight who will struggle against the top tier of the division. But he will have a huge opportunity to prove that perception wrong when he gets the chance to fight former champion Cain Velasquez on Saturday night. With all the shuffling following Overeem’s PED suspension, Silva has moved up the card and is now preparing for the biggest fight of his career. A win over Velasquez would propel him immediately into title contention. If he wants to do that, he is going to need to keep the fight standing and hope to outstrike the former champion. Velasquez has shown a solid chin in his career but Silva has the power to test it and even finish the fight if he gets the opportunity. But while looking to strike, Silva will have to defend against some of the best takedowns in the division and that is where he is likely to struggle.

Velasquez will likely employ the strategy that won him the belt and try to put Silva on his back early and often. From there, he will look to land his unique style of ground and pound. Having already felt the belt around his waist, Velasquez will be eager to get back to the pinnacle of the sport and he will come out motivated to prove that he deserves that opportunity sooner rather than later. Before being stopped by Dos Santos in his last fight, Velasquez had run through the UFC heavyweight division beating all seven of his opponents with six of those wins coming by TKO or KO. He might not be able to finish Silva within the three rounds allotted for the fight but if he sticks to his gameplan, a definitive decision is well within his reach. The only danger he faces in this fight is if he gets caught with a big punch from Silva or somehow ends up on his back with Silva on top. But based on the significant wrestling advantage Velasquez holds going into this fight, that scenario seems highly unlikely.

As expected, Velasquez is a heavy favorite going into the fight at -400 with Silva coming in at +325. Silva will be looking to land one big punch or find his way into top position somehow and land big strikes from there in order to pull off the upset. The more likely outcome is that Velasquez controls the fight on the feet, puts Silva on his back and grinds his way to a victory. The length of the fight is likely to depend on how long Silva can withstand the onslaught he’ll face once he ends up on his back. But if Silva can put his huge right hand on the former champion’s chin, anything can happen.

UFC 146 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson.

Roy Nelson

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson has lost three out of his last four with two of those losses coming to the fighters competing for the championship in the night’s headliner. Herman has split his two UFC fights with his loss coming to Stefan Struve, who is also competing on Saturday night’s card.

Nelson’s last several fights have mainly taken place on the feet and his main accomplishment has been proving that he is almost impossible to knock out. He took punches from Junior Dos Santos that no one else has been able to absorb. But a good chin isn’t enough to win fights and losing three out of four isn’t the way to stay in the UFC. Nelson will be fighting for his UFC life on Saturday night and fortunately for him, he will be facing a fighter he is capable of defeating. Expect Nelson to attempt to show the full range of his game on Saturday night as he should have the advantage wherever the fight takes place. Herman will have the height advantage but that’s nothing new for Nelson who will close the distance and throw power punches. Once on the inside, Nelson should look to put Herman on his back and work his submission game. Nelson is excellent from the top position and has the skill set to finish this fight early.

Herman will be looking to improve on his previous performance when he was stopped by Stefan Struve after an uninspiring eight minutes in the octagon. He looked sluggish against Struve and spent most of the fight standing still in front of his opponent eventually paying for his lack of movement by being dropped with an uppercut and finished with ground and pound. Herman is a much better fighter than he showed that night and he should be looking to prove that against Nelson. A win against Nelson would put him back on the right track while a loss would set him back significantly. He will look to keep the fight standing as he won’t want to grapple with his more accomplished opponent. Look for him to use his reach advantage and keep Nelson on the outside with jabs and kicks. If Nelson looks to close the distance, expect Herman to clinch and use his knees. The task is a difficult one but if Herman is focused, he can pull off the upset.

Nelson is favored in this fight at -225 with Herman the underdog at +185. Nelson should be able to pull out a win by outstriking Herman, putting him on his back and looking for submissions. Herman’s best hope is to keep Nelson on the outside and pick him apart with strikes. Unfortunately for Herman, Nelson is almost impossible to knock out so if he wants a victory, he’s going to have to earn it by winning a decision.

Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic

In a battle of undefeated heavyweights, former Strikeforce fighter Shane Del Rosario makes his UFC debut against Stipe Miocic who has two wins in the UFC over Joey Beltran and Philip De Fries. Despite being undefeated thus far in their careers, neither fighter has looked overwhelmingly impressive and this fight will be the biggest test either has faced.

Del Rosario won all three of his Strikeforce fights on Challengers cards over Brandon Cash, Lolohea Mahe and Lavar Johnson. He finished all three fights in the first round showing the ability to close with either strikes or submissions. None of those fighters presented a well rounded game to compete with Del Rosario’s skill set and against Miocic, he’ll be facing a more complete fighter. Miocic showed showed powerful if not technically perfect hands in his previous fight against Philip De Fries. Look for Del Rosario to start by striking with Miocic and try to take advantage of the openings he showed in that fight. But as soon as he feels threatened, expect Rosario to try to get the fight to the ground and work his submission game from the top position.

Miocic will more than likely look to keep the fight on the feet and rely on his boxing to try to earn the victory. Lavar Johnson had Del Rosario in trouble and while Miocic might not have the raw power that Johnson has, he’s more technical and could use that accuracy to finish the fight if he gets an opportunity. He will need to use his wrestling defensively in this fight to keep the fight standing. If he can use leg kicks to slow Rosario and then attack with punches, he’ll have a chance at pulling off the upset.

Del Rosario comes into this fight as the favorite at -200 with Miocic getting +170. Look for Del Rosario to strike early and use the clinch to get Miocic to the ground. Once there, he will attempt to create openings with ground and pound to attack with submissions. Miocic will be looking to do the opposite and keep the fight standing to utilize his boxing. Del Rosario should have the superior all around game and earn the victory but if he gets sloppy on his feet, Miocic could take advantage and steal the win.

Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve

Saturday night’s opening fight will feature a fight that is almost guaranteed not to make it out of the first round as Lavar Johnson’s faces Stefan Struve. This is the type of fight that makes fans wonder if UFC matchmaker Joe Silva is laughing maniacally in a dark office somewhere at the potential train wreck he has set in motion. Struve has shown a propensity to leave his notoriously weak chin up in the air and Johnson has some of the most powerful punches in the division. If Johnson’s fists touch Struve’s chin, this fight will be over.

Struve is one of the most interesting fighters in the heavyweight division. At 6’11,” he is the tallest legitimate fighter in the world and he uses that height to his advantage by kicking his opponents from distances where they can’t even come close to reaching him. He has shown knockout power in his strikes and has an excellent Dutch muay thai game that he has used to finish several UFC fights. He also uses his long legs to his advantage on the ground where he can latch on to chokes from positions where fighters aren’t used to having to defend against them. His height combined with his technique provides a unique challenge for every opponent he face. His one major weakness thus far in his career has been his chin. Once fighters get inside his outrageous reach, they have been able to consistently drop him with punches. To Struve’s credit, he has survived several knockdowns and fought back to earn victories but that will not be a likely outcome on Saturday night. If he wants to defeat Johnson, he needs to avoid the striking game and get this fight to the mat quickly where he has a significant advantage. If he can do that, he should be able to finish with a submission shortly thereafter.

Lavar Johnson has scary power in his hands. He has finished his last two opponents with punches and if Struve decides to engage in a striking match, he will likely face the same fate. Johnson will look to force the issue and go after Struve early in this fight. He has a limited ground game and he will be in trouble if he finds himself grappling with Struve. Expect Johnson to be swinging for Struve’s chin from the opening bell and even if he grazes it, that could be enough to finish the fight. His goal will be to control the octagon and push Struve against the cage where he can use uppercuts and short hooks to drop his opponent and finish the fight.

The bookmakers have this fight at almost a pick ‘em with Struve favored at -125 and Johnson the “underdog” at +105. That’s exactly where the line should be because if Johnson lands a punch, the fight could be over in an instant but if Struve can get the fight to the ground, it could end just as quickly. This fight lends itself to an early finish and both fighters have a distinct route to earning the victory. The outcome will depend on whether Struve can get the fight to the ground before Johnson lands a punch.

Lavar Johnson

UFC 146 Shakeup: Is the New Heavyweight Lineup Better, Worse, or Much Worse?


(Let’s be honest, you’d pay to watch these three knuckleheads do *anything*.)

As Danga pointed out yesterday, injuries and surprise drug tests have led to all five of UFC 146‘s main card bouts being altered since they were first announced, which puts “Dos Santos vs. Mir” right up there with MMA’s most cursed events of all time. But let’s be fair — the UFC originally promised us ten aggressive heavyweights bashing the hell out of each other, and they’re still giving us just that. So is UFC 146 a rag-tag bunch of scab-fights, or a compelling lineup in itself? Let’s break it down…

Original main event: Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem
Current main event: Junior dos Santos vs. Frank Mir
Advantage: Even. Luckily, our schizophrenic contributor Josh Hutchinson has already presented both sides of this issue, and I’m leaning towards the idea that Mir as a main-event replacement isn’t a total disaster. At first, we had the two best heavyweight strikers in MMA slugging it out for supremacy. Now, we have…well, who knows? Mir’s brilliant ground game opens up a whole new set of outcomes for this one. And isn’t MMA at its best when it’s chaotic and unpredictable? (I know, some of you just watch for the big muscles, but I’m a true fan, okay bro?)

Original co-main event: Cain Velasquez vs. Frank Mir
Current co-main event: Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva
Advantage: Original. And I only say that because Velasquez vs. Mir felt like less of a squash match. Bigfoot really could have used a softer landing in the Octagon; making his UFC debut in a pay-per-view co-main event against a juggernaut ex-champ like Velasquez smells like serious trouble for the Brazilian, who already failed a chin-test against Daniel Cormier in September.


(Let’s be honest, you’d pay to watch these three knuckleheads do *anything*.)

As Danga pointed out yesterday, injuries and surprise drug tests have led to all five of UFC 146‘s main card bouts being altered since they were first announced, which puts “Dos Santos vs. Mir” right up there with MMA’s most cursed events of all time. But let’s be fair — the UFC originally promised us ten aggressive heavyweights bashing the hell out of each other, and they’re still giving us just that. So is UFC 146 a rag-tag bunch of scab-fights, or a compelling lineup in itself? Let’s break it down…

Original main event: Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem
Current main event: Junior dos Santos vs. Frank Mir
Advantage: Even. Luckily, our schizophrenic contributor Josh Hutchinson has already presented both sides of this issue, and I’m leaning towards the idea that Mir as a main-event replacement isn’t a total disaster. At first, we had the two best heavyweight strikers in MMA slugging it out for supremacy. Now, we have…well, who knows? Mir’s brilliant ground game opens up a whole new set of outcomes for this one. And isn’t MMA at its best when it’s chaotic and unpredictable? (I know, some of you just watch for the big muscles, but I’m a true fan, okay bro?)

Original co-main event: Cain Velasquez vs. Frank Mir
Current co-main event: Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva
Advantage: Original. And I only say that because Velasquez vs. Mir felt like less of a squash match. Bigfoot really could have used a softer landing in the Octagon; making his UFC debut in a pay-per-view co-main event against a juggernaut ex-champ like Velasquez smells like serious trouble for the Brazilian, who already failed a chin-test against Daniel Cormier in September.

Original main card bout #3: Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Silva
Current main card bout #3: Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman
Advantage: Original. See above; Nelson vs. Silva made a lot of sense as a matchup, and I was looking forward to it. Plus, after his February loss to Stefan Struve, I’m not sold on Dave Herman as main-card material.

Original main card bout #2: Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Del Rosario
Current main card bout #2: Stipe Miocic vs. Shane Del Rosario
Advantage: Current. Unless you’re a big Gabe Gonzaga fan (?), this match just became a lot more relevant. Miocic and Del Rosario are both undefeated up-and-comers with a combined finishing ratio of 94.7%, and the winner of this fight follows in the footsteps of Travis Browne and Lavar Johnson as the hot-shot heavyweight prospect to watch. Personally, I think Miocic is going to emerge from this one as a rising star.

Original main card bout #1: Stefan Struve vs. Mark Hunt
Current main card bout #1: Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson
Advantage: Even. Look, I’m almost as depressed about Mark Hunt’s injury as Mark Hunt is. Plus, if I’m not mistaken, Struve vs. Hunt represented the greatest height differential in UFC history (13 inches!), which would have been awesome to see, just on an anthropological level. But I think we’re simply replacing one awesome Cinderella story (Hunt’s) with another just-as-good one (Johnson’s). Johnson came to the UFC riding back-to-back losses in Strikeforce, which followed nearly getting shot to death. Few expected him to make an impact in the UFC — and yet he’s already scored first-round knockouts of Joey Beltran and Pat Barry, picking up $130,000 in bonus money in the process. Now he’s re-entering the cage with just a three-week layoff between the Barry fight and this one. Do you believe in miracles?

Final analysis: If the original card was a 9 out of 10, the current card is at least a strong 7.5. Yes, we lost Alistair Overeem, and yes, we gained Dave Herman. But in terms of entertainment value, UFC 146 hasn’t given up a whole lot. Agree or disagree? (Sorry Hutchinson, you can’t do both…)

–BG