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UFC on FX 3 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman If the main event features two fighters who are startlingly similar, this fight is the exact opposite. Charlie Brenneman and Erick Silva couldn’t be more different in their approaches. Brenneman.

Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman

If the main event features two fighters who are startlingly similar, this fight is the exact opposite. Charlie Brenneman and Erick Silva couldn’t be more different in their approaches. Brenneman is a calculated strategist whose five UFC victories have all come via decision including his latest victory over Daniel Roberts. On the other end of the spectrum, Erick Silva fights with an unbridled aggression that has twice caused him to lose fights due to illegal strikes. This will be a classic test of which fighter can impose his style of fighting on his opponent.

Charlie Brenneman is 5-2 in his UFC career with one of the losses coming to the absurd weight-cutting of Anthony Johnson. He has really only lost once in the UFC to someone who belongs in his weight class and that was to Johnny Hendricks who has currently worked his way into title contention. Brenneman isn’t at that level but a few more wins and the UFC will have to take notice. His style doesn’t make him a fan favorite and that has hindered his marketability. His last fight is a perfect example of that. He thoroughly outclassed Roberts and controlled every aspect of the fight. The outcome was never in doubt as Brenneman dominated position for all fifteen minutes. But in those fifteen minutes, he did little damage despite getting into dominant positions including the mounted crucifix twice. But that style will be his greatest asset against Silva. Brenneman will want to avoid trading on the feet and suck his opponent into a grinding grappling contest. If he allows himself to be drawn into a brawl he could find himself in trouble or even unconscious. But if he can use his striking to set up takedowns and control Silva, he should be able to earn the victory.

Erick Silva is explosive. He has finished his last four opponents in the first round. That includes back to back first minute TKOs in the UFC. The last fight was ruled a DQ due to strikes to the back of the head but even referee Mario Yamasaki admitted that he made the wrong call in that fight. Silva’s gameplan isn’t complicated. He will look to explode on Brenneman the same way he has exploded on all his opponents. An early finish is entirely possible and will probably be his most likely route to victory as Brenneman is a master of grinding opponents into the mat over the full fifteen minutes. That said, Silva will need to wait for the right opportunity to attack. If he attacks recklessly and gets off balance, Brenneman will take advantage and put him on his back. Silva has shown a good submission game in Brazil but he hasn’t had to contend with a fighter who has a base and defense like the one he’ll be facing on Friday. Controlling his explosive aggression and timing his attack properly will be the key for Silva.

Silva is the favorite at -145 with Brenneman at +125. This is a relatively close line for an MMA fight and both fighters have a legitimate path to victory. Silva will look to end the fight early by overwhelming Brenneman with power and explosiveness. Brenneman will look to survive that early onslaught, drag the fight out as long as possible and pull out the victory in the final rounds. History says that the more experienced fighter with better positioning and control is likely to win the fight. But if Silva destroys Brenneman the way he has destroyed his first two opponents, he will be officially announcing his arrival as a factor in the welterweight division.

Josh Neer vs. Mike Pyle

What a great way to start the main card. Neither of these fighters will ever compete for a UFC title but they have both been fixtures in MMA for years with Pyle debuting in 1999 and Neer coming along four years later in 2003. Both have improved immensely in their time in the sport and have consistently provided fans with high level entertaining fights. They are both well-rounded with the ability to finish from any position. Old school fans will be looking forward to this fight as much or more than any other fight on the card aside from the main event.

Mike Pyle is 5-3 in his most recent UFC stint including a TKO victory over Richard Funch in his last appearance. He landed a big right hand followed by a knee that dropped Funch. He then pounced and landed a few more strikes to stop the fight. That kind of finish is unlikely against the absurdly durable Neer. Pyle will more than likely need to beat Neer for fifteen minutes if he wants to earn the victory. He has the stand up game to compete with Neer on the feet and fifteen minutes of striking would be a treat for the fans. But the more likely route to victory would be to put Neer on his back and use grappling to control the fight. Even from there, Neer will still be dangerous and Pyle will need to be wary of submissions. And getting Neer to the mat won’t be easy either. If Pyle can’t get the takedown, look for him to step back and try to win the fight with his kickboxing.

Josh Neer is one of those fighters who seems to be incapable of being in a boring fight. He tries to finish from every position and has the skill set to do so. He was released from the UFC after back to back losses in 2009 but earned his way back in with four consecutive wins in 2011 and has now won back to back UFC fights including an impressive first round submission of Duane Ludwig in January. Ludwig was winning the fight on the feet as would be expected but Neer was able to land a takedown and caught Ludwig in a guillotine as he attempted to get back to a standing position. Expect him to try to keep the fight standing against Kyle as he should have the advantage. But he won’t be afraid to grapple with Pyle and this fight could end up showcasing all aspects of MMA. Neer needs to be careful of spending too much time on his back looking for submissions as the judges will not look favorably on that if the fight goes to a decision. He has the ability to win wherever the fight goes but his most likely road to victory takes place in the striking game.

Pyle comes into this fight as the favorite at -190 with Neer the underdog at +165. Once again, I’m surprised at the gap in these lines as Neer has a legitimate chance to win this fight. Pyle should be able to use his wrestling to get Neer on the ground but whether or not he can keep him there could determine who wins the fight. Neer will look to land damaging shots on the feet and catch a submission if the fight ends up on the mat. If Kyle can avoid those attempts and control the pace of the fight, he can earn the victory. If not, Neer could walk away with another upset.

Four Reasons to Be Sort-Of Interested in ‘UFC on FX 3?

(Props: ThePeoplesCecil via MMAFanMade. Click for full-size version.)

The UFC makes a stop in Sunrise, Florida, tomorrow night for their latest UFC on FX event, featuring a flyweight rerun, a handful of veterans on the main card, and a murderer’s row of nobodies on the prelims. But is it skippable? Maybe not. After studying the card, we’ve found a few somewhat credible reasons to watch this thing. Read on, and if you’re around tomorrow night, be sure to come back to CagePotato.com for our liveblog of the “Johnson vs. McCall” main card, which kicks off at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT.

#1: It’s make-or-break time for Leonard Garcia.
The last time that “Bad Boy” beat anybody decisively was his first-round TKO of Jens Pulver at WEC 36, back in November 2008. That was ten fights ago. Since then, Garcia has gone 3-5-1, with all three of those wins coming by split-decision. Two of those wins are widely considered to be bullshit robberies, and were later avenged in rematches with the “losing” fighters, Chan Sung Jung and Nam Phan. Basically, Garcia’s record since 2009 should really be 1-7-1, and even that lone legit victory (against Jameel Massouh at WEC 42) could have easily gone the other way.

Now, Garcia finds himself on the preliminary card of an FX show, against Matt Grice, whose overall UFC record stands at 1-4, including the first-round TKO loss that Grice suffered against Ricardo Lamas in his last fight. Garcia vs. Grice has all the markings of a “win or go home” match. It doesn’t matter if Leonard turns it into an exciting brawl — if he loses, he’s on extremely thin ice, and we may not see him back again.

(Props: ThePeoplesCecil via MMAFanMade. Click for full-size version.)

The UFC makes a stop in Sunrise, Florida, tomorrow night for their latest UFC on FX event, featuring a flyweight re-run, a handful of veterans on the main card, and a murderer’s row of nobodies on the prelims. But is it skippable? Maybe not. After studying the card, we’ve found a few somewhat credible reasons to watch this thing. Read on, and if you’re around tomorrow night, be sure to come back to CagePotato.com for our liveblog of the “Johnson vs. McCall” main card, which kicks off at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT.

#2. Erick Silva might be a future superstar.
The 27-year-old Team Nogueira product’s UFC career has lasted just 69 seconds. First, he ran through Luis Ramos in 40 seconds at UFC 134, then he ran through Carlo Prater in 29 seconds at UFC 142, although the fight left Silva with a controversial DQ loss. His opponent on the UFC on FX 3 main card, Charlie Brenneman, represents a big step up in competition, but if Silva can pull it off, he’ll earn the kind of “future of the welterweight division” hype currently reserved for Rory MacDonald. Keep your eye on him.

#3. Demetrious Johnson figured out how to cut weight.
Mighty Mouse’s first meeting with Ian McCall in March ended in a three-round draw, and look, it’s not like he’s making excuses here, but Johnson did tell MMA Junkie that he ran out of energy in the third round because of a poorly-designed diet that had him cut out carbs entirely: “When I was going down to 125 (pounds), I didn’t want to jump on the scale and be [announced], ‘Demetrious Johnson, ladies and gentlemen!,’ and Joe Rogan’s like, ’128!’…When it came time for me to rehydrate, I didn’t have any carbs because if you take something out of your body for eight weeks and you try to put it back into your body for like one night, to fight, your body is going to go into shock. You’re not going to perform well.”

Though McCall was making his UFC debut that night, he was no stranger to the 125-pound division thanks to his 3-0 stretch in Tachi Palace Fights last year. Unfortunately, Johnson was a flyweight rookie, and made some rookie mistakes. Now that he has a better sense of what’s required to make 125 and feel strong the next day, we might see an even more ferocious Mouse in the cage tomorrow — and this time, he’s definitely not going to want to leave it in the hands of the judges.

#4: Mike Pierce‘s Brazilian-bashing routine might come back to bite him in the ass.
After Pierce’s main card fight with fellow welterweight Carlos Eduardo Rocha was booked, Pierce got on Twitter to drop some rather unwarranted hate: ”WANTED: no work ethic, no cardio, terrible striking and limited ground game. Brazilians, please send fight applications to Joe Silva.“ Now, he’s rolling directly into American Top Team territory making cracks about Thiago Alves and fast food. That kind of near-suicidal dissing of Brazilian fighters has usually been the realm of Chael Sonnen, but Pierce wants to get in on the action too, apparently.

And it’s not because he’s racist. It’s worse — it’s because he’s already looking past Rocha and angling for a future fight against Alves. And that’s a mistake, because Rocha is a tough bastard, and now it’s personal. If Pierce isn’t taking this fight seriously, he could find himself down two fights in a row on Saturday morning, and where he goes from there is anybody’s guess. For the record, Brazilians are intelligent and upstanding people who have Internet access, never feed carrots to buses, and know how to treat a lady.

— Ben Goldstein

Dana White Says Ellenberger/Kampmann Will Be For a Title Shot, We Call Shenanigans

(Wait, now I’m fighting who?)

Maybe it’s because we’ve been burned many, many times before, but we’re not exactly sold on Dana White’s recent claims that the upcoming TUF 15 Finale headlining match between Martin Kampmann and Jake Ellenberger will be for the next title shot. You see, “number one contender” is a term that is so loosely used and abused by the Zuffa brass these days that it might as well be Rampage Jackson.

But be that as it may, a press release sent out by the UFC this morning, quoting the almighty DW nonetheless, has stated that the victor of Kampmann/Ellenberger will indeed get the winner of Condit/GSP, whenever the hell that happens:

The welterweight division is stacked and Jake Ellenberger and Martin Kampmann are going to fight for the chance to earn a title shot. They will headline the season finale of TUF Live on FX to crown the next Ultimate Fighter. There’s a lot at stake for the guys competing on this card at the Palms.

You see how they did that? “For the chance to earn a title shot,” is about as brilliant a non-commitment as we’ve ever seen. Dan Henderson would be impressed by such a classic Dana White misdirection, and would undoubtedly have a better response than the one you are about to read. But if you feel tricked, hoodwinked, or even bamboozled by such a statement, then you’re not alone. We’re not going to take it anymore, and are calling shenanigans on this right now before things get out of hand. Here’s why.

(Wait, now I’m fighting who?)

The welterweight division is stacked and Jake Ellenberger and Martin Kampmann are going to fight for the chance to earn a title shot. They will headline the season finale of TUF Live on FX to crown the next Ultimate Fighter. There’s a lot at stake for the guys competing on this card at the Palms.

Truth be told, by the time George St. Pierre and Carlos Condit face off, which has been rumored for UFC 154 at the earliest, who knows whether or not Kampmann or Ellenberger will still be a thought in DW’s head. We’re talking about an event that barely even exists at the moment, plus whatever time it takes for the winner to recover. That’s a long wait.

And if Nick Diaz returns, we can pretty much put this notion to bed.

In fact, we’d be willing to bet that, granted he decides against the whole “retirement” thing, Diaz will serve his time and still be ahead of either Kampmann or Ellenberger in line. GSP will fake another injury ala Anderson Silva and Diaz will begin to carry a replica belt everywhere he goes, knowing that it is of more value than his Strikeforce ones, so we can be treated to Diaz vs. St. Pierre in Canada’s biggest ~~soccer~~ hockey stadium. Meanwhile, either Kampmann or Ellenberger will be served mid-tier fighters until they eventually drop a fluke and are forced out of the picture. Because that’s how money/politics/business works, folks. It’s why the current state of boxing sucks, why Steve Jobs is dead, and why capitalism is a false prophecy created by Ronald Reagan in the eighties to lull our country into a sense of false security before he and the army of the undead rise to take back the earth from our severely emasculated society. These are facts.

Is anyone buying any of this, be it our pandering attempts at humor (seriously, capitalism is awesome and you know it) or DW’s well documented deception?

In fight booking news that will actually happen…

After a successful UFC debut saw him steamroll Luis Ramos at UFC 134, Brazilian phenom Erick Silva dropped a controversial DQ by way of illegal strikes to Carlos Prater in his sophomore match at UFC 142. Much was made about Mario Yamasaki’s call, as well as Joe Rogan’s subsequent calling out of Yamasaki in his post fight interview. But now that all the apologies have been made and blah blah blah it looks like Silva will return to the octagon at UFC on FX 3 against “The Spaniard” Charlie Brenneman.

After making perhaps the worst call of my career, professional or otherwise, and picking Brenneman to upset Anthony Johnson at UFC Live 6, the Pros vs. Joes winner was able to bounce back with a plodding unanimous decision over Daniel Roberts at UFC on FX: Guillard vs. Miller that I completely forgot about until two minutes ago. He will likely be a huge underdog going into this one.

Will Brenneman be able to harness the same magic that helped him pull out an upset over Rick Story, or will he simply wilt under Silva’s power? In either case, I sure ain’t betting on it.

UFC on FX 3 goes down from the TBA Center in East Bumfuck on June 8th.

-J. Jones

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Kamal Shalorus Set for UFC on FUEL 3 in May

(Dos Anjos pulls off a picture perfect lawn chair KO on George Sotiropoulos at UFC 132.)

Kamal Shalorus has had a difficult time making the leap from the WEC to the UFC. After putting together a 3-0-1 record in the now deceased promotion, “The Prince of Persia” has dropped two straight — a first round TKO to top contender Jim Miller at UFC 128 and a third round submission at the hands of newcomer Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC on FX: Guillard vs. Miller. In what his final shot under the Zuffa banner, Shalorus will not be given an easy victory, as he has been booked to take on Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC on FUEL 3, which goes down on May 15 from the Patriot Center in Fairfax, Virginia.

Dos Anjos, on the other hand, sandwiched the above KO over G-Sots between a pair of losses to Clay Guida (via submission due to jaw injury) and the Anthony Johnson of the lightweight division, Gleison Tibau (by SD).

Also booked for Fairfax…

(Dos Anjos pulls off a picture perfect lawn chair KO on George Sotiropoulos at UFC 132.)

Also booked for Fairfax…

Following a seven year absence from the octagon that saw him go 19-6, Jeff “The Big Frog” Curran returned to the UFC last October at UFC 137. It was less than successful, as he dropped a unanimous decision to Scott Jorgensen in a match that was forgotten about before it was even over. For his next fight, Curran will be taking a significant step down in competition when he faces Johnny Eduardo in a bantamweight contest. Eduardo, a 25-9 product out of Nova Uniao, came up short in his UFC debut in August, where he was out grappled by Raphael Assuncao en route to a unanimous decision loss.

Finally, lightweights T.J Grant and Carlo Prater are set to throw down on the UFC on FUEL 3 undercard as well. You remember Carlo Prater, don’t you? He was the guy who took the road less traveled to victory at UFC 142, upsetting Erick Silva by way of superior positioning to allow illegal punches to the back of his head. It’s called strategery, Potato Nation.

Anyway, check out the full lineup for UFC on FUEL 3 below. I DEFY YOU to name the website I copy/pasted it from.

Featherweight bout: Dustin Poirier vs. Chan Sung Jung
Light Heavyweight bout: Thiago Silva vs. Igor Pokrajac
Lightweight bout: Donald Cerrone vs. Jeremy Stephens
Lightweight bout: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kamal Shalorus
Lightweight bout: TJ Grant vs. Carlo Prater
Middleweight bout: Tom Lawlor vs. Jason MacDonald
Welterweight bout: Amir Sadollah vs. Jorge Lopez
Lightweight bout: Cody McKenzie vs. Aaron Riley
Middleweight bout: Brad Tavares vs. Dongi Yang
Bantamweight bout: Yves Jabouin vs. Mike Easton
Bantamweight bout: Jeff Curran vs. Johnny Eduardo
Bantamweight bout: Alex Soto vs. Azamat Gashimov

-J. Jones

Carlo Prater Blasts ‘Unethical’ Joe Rogan for His Criticism of Mario Yamasaki at UFC 142

(“What is…a donkey punch?”)

Joe Rogan has never been one to hide his opinions. Whether it’s an early stoppage, a late stoppage, or a botched judges’ decision, many UFC fights have ended with Rogan passionately expressing his disagreement. But at UFC 142 earlier this month, Rogan went even further and corralled referee Mario Yamasaki for an unscheduled post-fight interview, asking Yamasaki to justify his disqualification of Erick Silva for shots to the back of the head. It was an uncomfortable moment, but as Rogan explained, he felt it was his duty to ask the questions that the viewers might have at that moment.

One notable fighter has come forward to stand up for Yamasaki — Carlo Prater, the guy who actually took the alleged illegal shots from Silva that night. As Prater sees it, his perspective and Yamasaki’s perspective hold a lot more weight than Joe Rogan’s, who’s just a “swagger,” in his opinion. (Continue reading for a definition of “swagger” as used in this context. It might not be what you think.) Here’s what Prater told SportTV.com in a new interview:

(“What is…a donkey punch?”)

Joe Rogan has never been one to hide his opinions. Whether it’s an early stoppage, a late stoppage, or a botched judges’ decision, many UFC fights have ended with Rogan passionately expressing his disagreement. But at UFC 142 earlier this month, Rogan went even further and corralled veteran referee Mario Yamasaki for an unscheduled post-fight interview, asking Yamasaki to justify his disqualification of Erick Silva for shots to the back of the head. It was an uncomfortable moment, but as Rogan explained, he felt it was his duty to ask the questions that the viewers might have.

One notable fighter has come forward to defend Yamasaki — Carlo Prater, the guy who actually took the alleged illegal shots from Silva that night. As Prater sees it, his perspective and Yamasaki’s perspective hold a lot more weight than Joe Rogan’s, who’s just a “swagger,” in his opinion. (Continue reading for a definition of “swagger” as used in this context. It might not be what you think.) Here’s what Prater told SportTV.com in a new interview:

“I felt very strong blows in the region of my neck and my right shoulder. I felt very painful shocks. I was trying to overthrow Erick on the floor, out of instinct, but I could not because it was the worst physical pain I’ve ever had in my entire life. I think in the end I was made out as a villain. I had to stay in the hospital until Monday. They asked me not to go public because, indeed, that wouldn’t do any good for me or Erick. In my opinion, Mario did the right thing. You are not allowed to do anything you want inside the cage. Watching the fight video, I could see at least nine blows to the back of the head.”

“I think the way Joe Rogan behaved was completely unethical. He went with the crowd. A real professional doesn’t do that. He was acting like a fan when he should be acting as a commentator. Mario is a million times more competent than him. He’s been living off this for 20 years. Joe Rogan is just a swagger, someone who walks amongst fighters but isn’t really a fighter himself. He doesn’t understand. Whatever, human beings make mistakes and I am not going to be holding grudges against him.”

Was it a controversial moment? Absolutely, especially when you consider all the UFC fights that have ended with shots to the back of the head that weren’t called disqualifications. But it’s nice to get the other guy’s perspective once in a while. Even one illegal blow should call a fight’s result into question.

Silva-Prater DQ Ruling Stands, Highlighting Need for Replay, ‘Back of Head’ Definition

Filed under: UFCAfter a review of the controversial finish to UFC 142’s Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater bout, UFC’s vice president of regulatory affairs Marc Ratner has decided not to overturn referee Mario Yamasaki’s decision.

Prater was awarded the vic…

Filed under: UFC

After a review of the controversial finish to UFC 142‘s Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater bout, UFC‘s vice president of regulatory affairs Marc Ratner has decided not to overturn referee Mario Yamasaki’s decision.

Prater was awarded the victory when Yamasaki ruled that at least some of a series of Silva’s finishing blows landed to the back of Prater’s head, making them illegal. In a statement released by the UFC, Ratner noted that Silva had been previously verbally warned during the fight, making it “not the type of decision that can be reviewed.”

Ratner’s decision not to overturn the ruling is understandable, as the promotion does not want to put themselves in a position where their power supersedes that of the referee or any presiding athletic commission. But it does highlight the need for two things: instant replay, and a clear and consistent definition of the “back of the head” a vague term that leaves things far too open for interpretation in a sport that is fast enough and hard enough to referee as it is.

Depending on who you talk to, there are two explanations of it. Some referees use the term “mohawk,” saying the illegal spot is an approximately one-inch wide strip right down the back of the head similar to the haircut. Others say the illegal area would be anywhere behind where a pair of earmuffs would be situated on the head.

There is simply too much at stake for the athletes for vague definitions to continue to exist. Silva, who momentarily believed he had a 29-second knockout, was suddenly robbed of a win that would have extended his unbeaten stretch to 11 straight.

Let’s make one thing clear: the sport moves so quickly that refereeing a match becomes an exercise in split-second judgments. It’s a difficult and often thankless job, and Yamasaki made his decision quickly and decisively.

That, of course, doesn’t mean he can’t be wrong from time to time. Much like NFL games can turn to replay to see whether a pass was caught in or out of bounds, MMA fights should be able to go to review to see if a blow that ended a fight was in fact, illegal. The fact that he warned Silva first shouldn’t matter; a mistake should be corrected, period.

Replay and the vague definition are two separate issues, of course.

Cageside instant replay was not available at UFC 142, but in a statement, Ratner said Zuffa has “decided to implement the use of instant replay at all international events that are self-regulated, and to encourage all regulators to consider the feasibility and effectiveness of instant replay in the sport of MMA.”

That change would be a positive step.

Replay has been used in Nevada for a few years now. In one memorable case, ref Steve Mazzagatti consulted a replay screen to determine that Jon Jones had committed an intentional foul against Matt Hamill, a decision that ultimately led to the first and still only loss on the UFC champion’s record. That is an example of a fair use of replay; Mazzagatti had doubt, looked over the video and made the right call.

Expanded replay would give referees a chance to review their calls in pivotal situations. In the case of Silva-Prater, Yamasaki had to make his call, and then was faced with a situation where he was put on the spot to defend it when the replays were shown on the arena’s big screens.

Of course, it might not have been necessary if we had a more decisive definition of what exactly the “back of the head” was. Yamasaki was notably the referee in an August 2011 bout between Vitor Belfort and Yoshihiro Akiyama, a fight that ended with questions about Belfort’s finishing strikes, which many believed were to the back of Akiyama’s head. In fact, you’d be hard pressed to watch the Belfort-Akiyama and Silva-Prater fights and determine one to be fair and the other worthy of a disqualification.

But those are the rules we play by in MMA today. As long as there’s no clarification of the “back of the head” rule, we’ll continue to face situations where the same strike will be interpreted as illegal in one fight, and never cause a blip of controversy in another. At least if we had a concise definition, we would know if our outrage is warranted.

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