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Dos Santos vs. Mir: Keys to Victory for Junior Dos Santos in UFC 146

Here comes the heavies.At UFC 146, Saturday, May 26, at 10 p.m. ET, the heavyweight division will be on display. Featuring five heavyweight fights, UFC 146 is headlined by heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos in his first title defense.Coming off a b…

Here comes the heavies.

At UFC 146, Saturday, May 26, at 10 p.m. ET, the heavyweight division will be on display. Featuring five heavyweight fights, UFC 146 is headlined by heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos in his first title defense.

Coming off a brutal beatdown of Shane Carwin and a shocking first-round knockout over Cain Velasquez, dos Santos will defend his new heavyweight belt for the first time against Frank Mir, who is coming off an incredible arm-breaking submission victory over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

Originally scheduled to fight skilled striker Alistair Overeem, who was removed from the fight after testing for an elevated testosterone-to-epitestosterone level, dos Santos now has to adapt to Mir’s grappling and jiu-jitsu heavy game.

What does dos Santos have to do to remain the champ? Let’s take a look…

Utilize his striking

Though dos Santos was originally planning to face Overeem, Mir is certainly an easier matchup. Don’t get me wrong, beating Mir will be no cake walk, but dos Santos has the clear striking advantage.

One of the heavyweight division’s better boxers, dos Santos has earned 10 of his 14 wins by knockout, with five of his eight UFC wins (six if you count Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic’s submission due to eye injury) also coming by way of knockout.

Statistically speaking, dos Santos lands more than 2.5 times more strikes per minute than Mir, and he gets hit substantially less than Mir. Look for dos Santos to use looping overhand rights and hard-digging uppercuts to steal Mir’s consciousness.

If dos Santos can put his hands to work like he normally does, it could be a very short night for Mir.

Keep the fight standing

This is a no-brainer. If dos Santos wants to be able to utilize his striking, he needs to stay away from Mir’s biggest strength—his grappling.

Though Mir isn’t a particularly incredible wrestler, he has high-level jiu-jitsu skills and a knack for breaking arms. Mir gets about 50 percent of the takedowns he attempts, and once on the ground, he relentlessly threatens his opponent with submissions.

Though dos Santos can hold his own on the ground, the path of most resistance isn’t typically the favored route in MMA. Instead of taking Mir on in grappling, dos Santos needs to use his prolific takedown defense to stuff Mir’s takedowns, use his footwork to stay off the cage and keep the fight in the middle of the Octagon.

Go for the kill

So, we know how Mir wins, but it’s equally important to note how he loses.

Mir has lost five times in his career, and five times he’s been knocked out. The fight is two days away, and already dos Santos should be smelling blood. If he gets Mir in a bad way, he should stay composed, follow up and work to finish the fight.

Mir is generally a resilient fighter, but he folds when getting hit repeatedly in the face really hard. Weird, right?

Easy as A, B, C

So, there you have it. It’s a pretty straight forward path to victory for dos Santos…stay on his feet, punch Mir hard and go for the kill. I know, easier said than done.

Can he do it? Tune in Saturday to find out…

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UFC 146, Dos Santos vs. Mir: Daniel Cormier, Josh Barnett Cast Shadows

Daniel Cormier and Josh Barnett’s epic Strikeforce championship battle last Saturday night not only precedes Junior Dos Santos and Frank Mir’s own UFC 146 title fight this coming weekend, it also presents a high standard on how heavyweight …

And heavyweights are all that matter this coming UFC 146 on May 26 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, with all its main card featuring bouts between the No. 1 promotion’s top heavyweights.

While it’s true that there have been more thrilling and fan-friendly heavyweight matches in MMA’s short history, the timing and quality presented by Cormier vs. Barnett compel any true fight fan to compare it with what Dos Santos and Mir can bring.

The Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix finalists fought only last Saturday, and their impressively technical and courageous fight is still fresh in the minds of MMA fans.

As fresh as the memory of Barnett’s blood-splattered face.

Olympian wrestler Daniel Cormier outstruck and outwrestled the catch wrestler Barnett to win the concluding match of the 16-month-long protracted Strikeforce tournament. The newly-crowned champion delivered vicious elbows in the ground-and-pound, and even landed a stunning headkick in the standup.

The bloodied Barnett was dominated but was not without a fight, landing his own punches and knees throughout the 25-minute tiff. Fighting to the bitter end, the former UFC champion also highlighted his renowned grappling prowess by threatening with a kneebar in the fourth round.

Also remarkable was that neither fighter committed a glaring and costly error throughout the consummated five-rounder. (Unless you nitpick and count Barnett’s missed spinning backfist strike or two.)

The two heavyweights are definitely not your fumbling giants; they are true professional MMA combatants who have developed their athleticism and technical proficiency to a highly-advanced degree.

Both fighters proved that they truly are in the upper tier when it comes to game completeness—among elite fighters in any division, in any MMA promotion.

It remains to be seen how Dos Santos and Mir will fare compared to the main event stars barely a week ago.

The coming UFC heavyweight title fight may likewise prove exciting, with a finish via knockout or tap out. Both elite protagonists are also very capable of treating the fans to a highly technical fight round after round—if it lasts long enough.

The Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix final has served as a one-week advance front act for UFC’s own “Heavyweight Grand Prix.” But, it may outshine whatever Dos Santos and Mir—and the rest of the heavyweights in the other UFC 146 main cards—have to offer.

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UFC 146: Frank Mir Is Poised to Defeat Junior Dos Santos for His Third HW Title

If you search the Internet for opinions on the UFC 146 main event featuring challenger Frank Mir versus UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior dos Santos, one popular opinion seems to be a steady constant that you will find everywhere: Junior dos Santos …

This opinion, of course, is nothing new to the former two-time heavyweight champion.

Mir’s entire career has been a case of overcoming obstacles to get to where is today. His initial UFC bout with Roberto Traven over 11 years ago, to the comeback of Pete Williams and Tank Abbott, Mir was always the guy that was supposed to lose.

His forearm shattering upset-victory over Tim Sylvia and a motorcycle accident that took his new UFC Heavyweight championship almost took his entire career as a martial artist away from him.

Battling back from personal and in-ring struggles, Mir buckled down and focused to overcome adversity by defeating Brock Lesnar with a kneebar and then went on to dominate the No.2 ranked heavyweight in the world, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for the UFC Interim heavyweight championship.

The common theme here is that these were challenges that Frank Mir was not supposed to overcome, yet he did—and conquered.

With many writing off Frank Mir as a massive underdog and the dominance that Junior dos Santos has shown over the course of his own career to this point, the safe bet will be on the side of the champion.

I think that Frank Mir has something to prove. He has something that is driving him to be the champion once more.

The answer lies in his legacy that includes two title reigns—the longest tenure of a UFC heavyweight—the most wins by a UFC heavyweight (14), the most submission wins (eight) by a UFC heavyweight and the most different submission types used to gain victory (seven).

On May 26, 2012, Frank Mir will be fighting in front of his home crowd in Las Vegas, Nevada at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in another historic event featuring a main card of UFC heavyweights.

Mir comes into this fight with an outstanding record of 10-2 in the desert compared to Junior dos Santos’ record of 1-0, a victory over Gilbert Yvel.

Dos Santos also has to be aware that Frank Mir can not only end his night early by a submission but packs enough power to keep him honest on his feet as he attempts to defend his title for the first time, a difficult task for anyone that has worn the heavyweight championship.

Mir enters this bout with his all-familiar calm, confident coolness that makes opponents think that he might know something that they do not.

Mir knows that this is the most dangerous striker he has faced to date but that seems to be one issue he doesn’t mind and makes it seem to be his biggest advantage.

But why?

Mir brings a very well-rounded skill-set to this fight, more so than any opponent that dos Santos has faced up to this point in his career.

I for one will not be surprised if this fight stays standing for a lengthy period of time and not because Mir fails to take dos Santos to the ground. Mir has above average stand-up defense and has never been knocked out on the feet.

His striking is diverse to the point that dos Santos has to be weary of all types of strikes due to the fact that Mir won’t be shy of landing on his back. Expect a lot of kicks and knees to be coming from Frank Mir because if he does fall to the mat, dos Santos will be unlikely to follow.

Mir also has the advantage of being the larger fighter and can use some tie-ups against the cage to wear down “Cigano” and take him into deeper waters.

Mir can utilize a Thai clinch as an effective tool in that position but will have to be cautious of the dangerous uppercut that dos Santos possesses.

Standing and striking with Junior dos Santos isn’t impossible and shouldn’t be out of the question. It may seem like the harder road to travel but Frank Mir has the tools to be effective.

I also believe that Frank Mir has one advantage that Junior dos Santos cannot prepare for.

Now at 33 years of age, the window of opportunity is closing for Frank Mir and his best chance to regain the UFC heavyweight championship is now.

For Frank Mir, his back is against the wall. He is fighting in front of his home crowd, and together that makes Mir a very dangerous animal.

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[VIDEO] UFC 146 Full Press Conference

(How awesome was the retro promo that preceded the conference? Finally, the UFC’s marketing department is making an effort.)

We’re not going to insult anyone’s intelligence; you all know what’s going down this Saturday at UFC 146. There may have been endless change ups, Twitter campaigns, and even change ups involving members of the aforementioned Twitter campaigns, but this weekend promises to be an, excuse the overused term, epic night of fights based on body mass alone.

(How awesome was the retro promo that preceded the conference? Finally, the UFC’s marketing department is making an effort.)

In fact, we’d be surprised if you were still reading this, knowing that there is really nothing more we can write to convince you where to place your money, who to root for based on the roughness of their upbringing alone, or whether or not the winner will do something incredibly stupid afterward. But just in case you are, here are a few things we took away from the conference:

1. Dave Herman has decided to stop impersonating Static-X frontman Wayne Static. Good for him.

2. Stefan Struve thinks that, in retrospect, it’s amazing that he fought JDS at just 21 years old. I would’ve gone with “horrifying,” but perhaps that’s why I’m a blogger, not a blogger/fighter. In time, Potato Nation.

3. Despite all the brain scramblings he’s suffered over the past few years, Frank Mir can still articulate himself better than most politicians.

Any last words?

-J. Jones

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 146 Edition

Unfortunately, last Tuesday’s UFC on FUEL: Zombie vs. Poirier card all but completely derailed our recent run of luck with the Gambling Enabler (aside from the decision to purchase some Bud Light Platinums to celebrate another beautiful McKenzietine bet), but hopefully this weekend’s UFC 146 event, which features an all heavyweight main card for the first time in UFC history will help get things back on track. So without further adieu, may we present to you the tasty betting lines, brought to you courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our brilliant/equally insane advice below.

Main Card
Frank Mir (+425) vs. Junior dos Santos (-550)
Cain Velasquez (-400) vs. Antonio Silva (+325)
Roy Nelson (-225) vs. Dave Herman (+185)
Shane del Rosario (+135) vs. Stipe Miocic (-155)
Lavar Johnson (+105) vs. Stefan Struve (-125)

Preliminary Card (FX)
Diego Brandao (-265) vs. Darren Elkins (+205)
Edson Barboza (-550) vs. Jamie Varner (+425)
Jason Miller (-145) vs. C.B. Dollaway (+115)
Dan Hardy (-130) vs. Duane Ludwig (+100)

Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Paul Sass (+170) vs. Jacob Volkmann (-215)
Glover Teixeira (-240) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (+180)
Mike Brown (-160) vs. Daniel Pineda (+130)

Thoughts…

Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Paul Sass (+170) vs. Jacob Volkmann (-215)
Glover Teixeira (-240) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (+180)
Mike Brown (-160) vs. Daniel Pineda (+130)

Thoughts…

The Main Event: Good God, has the world completely forgotten that Frank Mir is a former heavyweight champion for Christ’s sake? When we first came across those odds, not only did we double take, we nearly went into full on SpongeBob Squarepants bubble-blowing mode. Look, we all know that JDS has been damn near untouchable since nuking Fabricio Werdum in his octagon debut. We also know that Frank Mir’s chin leaves something to be desired, but at those odds, you’d think this was the squash match of the century, and that’s already been booked in the featherweight division. Mir is a submission savant with a pretty stellar standup game, and considering the experience advantage he’ll be bringing with him come Saturday, it would be nothing short of foolish to place at least a small bet on him at those ridiculous odds. Keep Junior in your parlay, because he has the kind of cement-filled hands that could end Mir’s night really, really early, but a side bet on Mir is common sense here.

The Good Dogs: We hate to be rude, but judging by their last performances, we’d say that Dave Herman and Antonio Silva are f’ing screwed. Plain and simple. Velasquez is too fast and dynamic for “Bigfoot,” and regardless of how Nelson has looked as of late, he is simply on another level than Herman, so scratch those from your list of viable options. The Rosario/Miocic line is really too close to warrant a big bet, and is one of those guaranteed slugfests that is best enjoyed with a cold beer, some nachos, and zero investment in the fighters at hand. Given his insane power, as well as Struve’s tendency to stand for way too long with people he has no business standing with, Lavar “Big” Johnson looks like a decent bet at +105. Then again, Pat Barry almost pulled off a keylock on him. Then again, Pat Barry almost pulled off a keylock on him. That is no typo; we want to let that notion settle in. Once Struve gets this to the ground, it will be over quicker than you can even kick yourself for betting on “Big” in the first place.

Really, the best underdog pick on this card is Paul Sass. Terrible nickname aside, he’s managed to score a couple impressive victories since jumping into the deep waters of the UFC’s lightweight division, mainly, his most recent heel hook win over TUF 12 finalist Michael Johnson. Volkmann has proven to be a force at 155, scoring five straight since dropping from welterweight, but none of those victories have really convinced us that he can do anything other than out-grapple his opponent for three rounds. Sass is a finisher, and Volkmann is anything but. This fight comes down to where you stand on the BJJ vs. wrestling debate, but we expect to see Sass pull off a second or third round sub and claim his place amongst the upper echelon of the lightweight division.

The Easy Bet: Diego Brandao. Although he saw some ups and downs in his glass plaque-earning effort over Dennis Bermudez at the TUF 14 Finale, he should easily be able to handle Darren Elkins, whose 3-1 octagon record looks a bit different when you realize that one of those victories came as a result of Duane Ludwig’s flimsy ankles, and another came as a result of the incompetence of MMA judges in his fight with Michihiro Omigawa. We feel compelled to mention the Miller/Dolloway match considering what’s at stake, but you might as well just throw your paycheck in the fire before you bet on either of those gentlemen.

Official CagePotato Parlay: dos Santos + Velasquez + Nelson + Brandao

Suggested stake for a $50 parlay
$25 on the parlay
$10 on Mir
$10 on Sass
$5 on Kingsbury (because UFC jitters are a thing)

–J. Jones

UFC 146 Fight Card: Why Junior Dos Santos Will KO Frank Mir

“The one shot power of Junior dos Santos! Who can stop that man?” “…Frank Mir!” Or at least, that is what is being pitched to fans in the UFC’s well-proliferated ad for the upcoming UFC 146 event. As is custom when it comes to…

“The one shot power of Junior dos Santos! Who can stop that man?”

“…Frank Mir!”

Or at least, that is what is being pitched to fans in the UFC’s well-proliferated ad for the upcoming UFC 146 event.

As is custom when it comes to title fights where one guy is a heavy favorite, MMA pundits and the UFC’s marketing department are trying to confabulate a way that this could be a close fight. We have seen this before.

Chael Sonnen, Vitor Belfort and Yushin Okami are all custom-built to beat Anderson Silva. Right?

Dan Hardy totally stood a chance against Georges St. Pierre. Right?

Dan Henderson’s one-punch power is still totally good enough to beat Jon Jones, who has over a foot of reach advantage. Right?

Obviously not. There are people working overtime, trying to figure out ways to trick fans into feeling that this is a tossup of a fight. Make no mistake, though. Junior dos Santos is a heavy, heavy favorite.

Frank Mir is a good fighter, for sure. Definitely a top five heavyweight at this time. Regardless, short of a flukey punch that happens to KO dos Santos, or dos Santos willingly engaging on the ground (all signs indicate that he is too smart for this, however) Mir stands almost no chance against him.

This writer does not find Junior dos Santos as unbeatable as many do. The problem, though, is not dos Santos’ explosive fists. The problem is Frank Mir’s long, storied history of putting together bad game plans in his biggest fights.

Look over Frank Mir’s bouts the last few years, and many of them are marred by this.

At UFC 100, Mir was set for a rematch with Brock Lesnar in a heavyweight title unification bout. Mir, who was walking around at about 245 pounds at the time, was at a serious disadvantage clinched, or on the ground, as Lesnar had a serious size advantage, walking around at about 285 pounds. This was a great compliment to his strong wrestling skills, and would be a big red flag for most fighters.

Lesnar, though, had an untested chin and his stand-up was not especially strong. Mir’s best chance was to work his takedown defense, keep the fight standing and try to rock Lesnar in order to set up for a submission victory.

Mir, instead, opted to try and out-grapple Lesnar, doing little to resist being pinned to the ground while working for a submission. Lesnar pounded him mercilessly for seven minutes until the referee saw that Mir was unable to respond.

After that, Mir scored a quick victory over kickboxer Cheick Kongo to qualify for an interim championship bout with Shane Carwin.

Carwin, at the time 3-0 in the UFC, had beaten all of those opponents by knockout. In fact, he was running through competition so quickly, that he had spent under three and a half minutes in the Octagon in those three fights.

After losing to Lesnar, Mir bulked up in a big way. Size-wise, Mir was about the same size as Carwin (though a little smaller). Mir had reasonably good hands, but not nearly as good as Carwin’s and more importantly, Mir lacked the knockout power his opponent was demonstrating at that point. Carwin was a NCAA Division II wrestler, but had not demonstrated that in the UFC yet while Mir was still undeniably one of the best ground fighters at the time.

Logically, Mir would want to tap into his own wrestling past, take Carwin down and try to submit the relatively inexperienced knockout artist. Nope.

Mir tried to stand and bang with Carwin with unsurprising results. The two clinched and Carwin spun Mir into the cage, and started landing short punches. While those punches would not be much from most fighters, effortlessly generating power is Carwin’s biggest strength, which resulted in Mir wilting to the mat in the first round.

While Mir lost both those fights, poor strategic moves end up a part of his victories, as well.

Mir’s most recent fight, a rematch with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, is a great example of this. Mir and Nogueira, on paper, were comparably skilled both standing and on the ground. Mir’s greatest edge against “Big Nog” was his size. Mir had about 20 pounds on him, and he is quite good at bullying people around the cage.

He would have been wise to clinch Nogueira, strike from that position, keep him against the cage and then employ some lay and pray. This is Frank Mir, though!

While the bout famously ended with Nogueira getting a new joint in his arm, most of it took place standing up. Nogueira rocked Mir twice and was very close to having the referee call it a fight. Though ultimately, this bout is considered one of Mir’s greatest wins, it still showed some of his bigger weaknesses.

This bout with Nogueira (with some help from Alistair Overeem) set up for another title fight for Mir. Junior dos Santos is possibly the best boxer in MMA today, but is yet to be challenged on the ground in the Octagon. This, obviously, is Mir’s biggest strength.

While it would make sense for Mir to try and go for a single-leg takedown, look for him instead to try to clinch, then drag dos Santos down. Mir has a suspect chin making it unlikely that he can get close enough for long enough to pull this off. This adds up to a likely knockout loss.

Again, Mir really is a strong fighter and one of the best stories in MMA. Regardless, he probably lacks the tools to beat Junior dos Santos. But even if he does have them, history shows he is probably going to leave them at home.

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