Tag: gambling addiction enabler

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 187: Johnson vs. Cormier’ Edition

(The UFC 187 open workout highlights, where Chris Weidman once again proves to be the most likeable human being ever. via MMAJunkie.)

By Dan George

This Saturday night, the UFC will be looking to rebound from a lackluster UFC 186 outing that was decimated  by a shocking drug testing failure, a judge changing his mind at the eleventh hour and an injury which forced the cancellation of the original main event. Thankfully, the UFC was able to roll it’s drugs, courts and cancellation issues into one fighter this time around, which allowed the stacked card to remain relatively intact.

Will Vitor Belfort roundhouse kick his way to becoming the new UFC middleweight champion? Will the winner of Johnson vs. Cormier be considered the true light heavyweight champion? How soon after the main event winner is announced will we see the predictable “I got next” tweet from Jon Jones that is immediately deleted?

The short answers to those questions: No, no, and 30 seconds. But join us anyway as we examine the UFC 187 betting lines (courtesy of 5dimes) and try to steer clear of the land mines known as the undercard while swinging for the fences on the main card.

The post Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 187: Johnson vs. Cormier’ Edition appeared first on Cagepotato.


(The UFC 187 open workout highlights, where Chris Weidman once again proves to be the most likeable human being ever. via MMAJunkie.)

By Dan George

This Saturday night, the UFC will be looking to rebound from a lackluster UFC 186 outing that was decimated  by a shocking drug testing failure, a judge changing his mind at the eleventh hour and an injury which forced the cancellation of the original main event. Thankfully, the UFC was able to roll it’s drugs, courts and cancellation issues into one fighter this time around, which allowed the stacked card to remain relatively intact.

Will Vitor Belfort roundhouse kick his way to becoming the new UFC middleweight champion? Will the winner of Johnson vs. Cormier be considered the true light heavyweight champion? How soon after the main event winner is announced will we see the predictable “I got next” tweet from Jon Jones that is immediately deleted?

The short answers to those questions: No, no, and 30 seconds. But join us anyway as we examine the UFC 187 betting lines (courtesy of 5dimes) and try to steer clear of the land mines known as the undercard while swinging for the fences on the main card.

Stay the Hell Away From

Colby Covington (-275) vs. Mike Pyle (+235)

Covington will be facing his toughest opponent in his 7-0 career thus far and the ATT product is being picked by most to win over Mike Pyle. It feels like a few years ago when Rick Story was the heavy favorite against Pyle, and in the end, “Quicksand” stayed true to his name and managed to pull out the split decision win. Covington is an outstanding grappler, Pyle hasn’t been out grappled in 5 years, and we have yet to see Covington KO an opponent. Pyle almost makes the good dogs, but best to leave money out of this one and enjoy an entertaining ground fight.

Josh Burkman (+240) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (-280)

After being heralded for a new found dynamic offensive based style, the “Stun Gun” found out what can happen when you throw caution to the wind against the higher ranked welterweights like Tyron Woodley. Burkman may be in the ever dreadful position of fighting for his spot on the UFC roster here, but he may be able to catch a gunshy Kim early or use his superior boxing to eek out a decision. Kim is not easily outworked on the mat and is the right favorite, but with the high price it’s best to pass and see what happens.

The Good Dogs

Uriah Hall (-365) vs. Rafael Natal (+305)

Uriah Hall created quite the buzz during his stint on TUF and has fired off three straight wins coming into this bout with Rafael Natal, who is on a two fight win streak of his own. If Natal does not allow Hall to settle in and find his distance, he should be able to mix in some grappling and find a way to pull off the upset. If the bout stays on the feet for considerable amounts of time, however, Uriah almost certainly wins by some form of violent stoppage. This bout feels like more of a coin flip (Uriah is 3-2 in the UFC) then it’s being labeled as, and with that feeling in mind, why not take the side that will give you 3 to 1 on your money?

Chris Weidman (-525) vs. Vitor Belfort (+415)

The “All American” is looking for his third successful title defense, once again against a Brazilian legend in Vitor Belfort who is attempting to put a cap on his long MMA career by winning the middleweight title. Many feel Weidman will be able to take Vitor down and dominate him round after round until Belfort fades, eventually catching him with a submission or provoking a stoppage from the referee due to strikes. The other popular notion seems to be that a non-TRTor will look like a shadow of his former self, which seems to explain why “The Phenom” is coming in as the +415 underdog on Saturday.

Belfort has only lost to Jon Jones and Anderson Silva since returning to the UFC, and has always been proven to be a fast, powerful, and ever-dynamic striker. Unfortunately, Belfort has also shown a tendency to fade and freeze up as his fights enter the later rounds. If “The Phenom” hopes to capture the belt, it will most likely have to come early in the fight rather than later. Weidman has proven to be hittable and it would not be an overstatement to claim that he has yet to be hit by a striker with the power Vitor possesses. The +115 prop that this fight goes over 2 ½ rounds may be a nice option for the Weidman bettors, but a straight bet on Belfort to win early wouldn’t be the worst decision you can make.

Other Main Card Bouts

Joseph Benavidez (-650) vs. John Moraga (+475)

John Moraga is going to put up much more of a resistance than that ridiculous +475 line suggests. Both fighters ceilings are at the very top of the division, and against one another, we may be looking at a long fight that requires the judges to determine a winner. Moraga works well off his back and is quite aggressive with submission attempts, but this is a facet of MMA that is too inconsistently rewarded by judges. The -130 prop that Benavidez wins by decision, the -175 prop that the fight goes the distance, and the -210 prop that the fight goes over 2 ½” rounds are all much more lucrative options than the steep price for the favorite. Joseph Benavidez to win.

Travis Browne (-450) vs. Andrei Arlovski (+360)

Andrei Arlovski has enjoyed two straight wins since returning to the UFC and is coming off an impressive and surprising KO of Big Foot Silva, the same man who handed Browne his first loss in 2012. “Hapa” has improved at a higher rate than Arlovski over the past few years, though, and should vault back into the Heavyweight title mix with a stoppage of Arlovski reminiscent of the latter’s fight with Brett Rogers, as Browne generally wins inside the first round. Again, the -125 prop bet that this fight does not go past midway through the 2nd round and/or Browne wins in the 1st round at +150 pay the best. Travis Browne to win.

Donald Cerrone (-550) vs. John Makdessi (+425)

Makdessi is a beast, but he’s filling in on short notice here against a true elite lightweight in Cerrone. His height and reach disadvantage to “Cowboy” will be the determining factor in this fight, as Cerrone utilizes his length much better than Shane Campbell did. Makdessi has been bested by strikers with significant height and reach advantages (Njokuani) as well as capable grapplers (Hallman) in the past and Cerrone is of higher caliber than any opponent John has faced up until now. With 3 straight decision wins, +130 prop Cerrone wins inside the distance is another nice prop to look at as “Cowboy” will be hunting for another performance of the night bonus this time around. Cowboy to win.

Daniel Cormier (-135) vs. Anthony Johnson (+115)

Looking nothing less than stellar during his run to the light heavyweight title shot, Anthony Johnson will face former number one contender Daniel Cormier, who comes into Las Vegas with a second chance to claim the belt in as many fights. Cormier holds any and every grappling advantage on the mat, but it has been Johnson’s stellar takedown defense that has many wondering if Cormier will be forced to stand and trade with the heavy-handed “Rumble.” If DC can avoid the big kicks and punches of Johnson early on, he should be able to mix up his striking with pressure against the cage to break Johnson down over time and become the new light weight champ. Cormier to win.

Parlay 1

-Dodson+Browne+Cerrone

Parlay 2

-Cormier+Browne

Props

-Benavidez vs Moraga goes to decision

-Browne vs Arlovski under  1.5 rounds

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

The post Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 187: Johnson vs. Cormier’ Edition appeared first on Cagepotato.

Gambling Addiction Enabler — ‘UFC 185: Pettis vs. Dos Anjos’ Edition

By Sam Stilson

Once in a while, Joe Silva likes to set up a card with an easy narrative. ‘Name’ fighters are given tough, but not too challenging opponents. We all pretend it’s a compelling matchup even though everyone knows who’s going to win. The fight happens, the good guy prevails, and it’s on to the next one. Such is the case with UFC 185.

The problem with this kind of card is that the bookies know who’s going to win too. This makes earning a buck off of watching people fight a bit of a challenge. Unless of course you like lengthy parlays or winning quarters off of 5-1 favourites. Still, this is MMA after all and crazier things have happened than a longshot winning a fight. Take for instance, the fact that Clay Guida has beaten both men vying for the lightweight title. Yes, this Clay Guida.

So with that in mind, let’s take a more in depth look at tomorrow’s UFC 185 card and see where we can earn some money to contribute towards CagePotato’s Patreon*.

*By “CagePotato’s Patreon” I of course mean blackjack and hookers. 

By Sam Stilson

Once in a while, Joe Silva likes to set up a card with an easy narrative. ‘Name’ fighters are given tough, but not too challenging opponents. We all pretend it’s a compelling matchup even though everyone knows who’s going to win. The fight happens, the good guy prevails, and it’s on to the next one. Such is the case with UFC 185.

The problem with this kind of card is that the bookies know who’s going to win too. This makes earning a buck off of watching people fight a bit of a challenge. Unless of course you like lengthy parlays or winning quarters off of 5-1 favourites. Still, this is MMA after all and crazier things have happened than a longshot winning a fight. Take for instance, the fact that Clay Guida has beaten both men vying for the lightweight title. Yes, this Clay Guida.

So with that in mind, let’s take a more in depth look at tomorrow’s UFC 185 card and see where we can earn some money to contribute towards CagePotato’s Patreon*.

*By “CagePotato’s Patreon” I of course mean blackjack and hookers. 

The Good Bet

Carla Esparza over Joanna Jedrzejczyk at -165

Like a smaller, stronger Rodney Dangerfield with penciled-on eyebrows, Carla Esparza just can’t get any respect. She’s been the 115 lb. champ for two years (between TUF 20 and other promotions) and has beaten a good chunk of her division already. We all thought Rose Namajunas was going to wreck her with her creative striking and it wasn’t even close. Wrestlers who can’t strike, beat strikers who can’t wrestle. At these odds you have to take the champ.

The Live Dogs

Roy Nelson over Alistair Overeem at +155

If this was a kickboxing match, Roy wouldn’t have a chance in hell. But it’s not, it’s MMA, and sometimes all you need is a big overhand right. It worked for Ben Rothwell and Bigfoot Silva against the Reem and I don’t think his chin has gotten any stronger. Fatty trumps Juicehead for a decent payout.

The Toss-Up

Matt Brown (+300) vs. Johny Hendricks (-400)

You might be asking, if this fight is so close, how come “The Immortal” isn’t considered a great underdog bet? He pays out 3 to 1! Well, let me direct you to this short clip and then tell me if you feel the same way. There’s more if you’re not convinced.

Johny absolutely deserves to be the favourite in this match-up, but Matt Brown is still being waaaay undervalued. Basically it comes down to game-plan. If Hendricks grinds out a wrestlefest, he’ll win, but if he strikes with Brown like he did with Lawler, this something of a coin-flip. “The Immortal” has a more diverse striking arsenal than Hendricks and also happens to be the toughest sum’bitch on the planet. Whoever emerges victorious deserves the title shot and either man deserves a bet.

All odds provided by Bodog

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 184: Rousey vs. Zingano’ Edition


(Easy there, Dave. One second it’s doing your job, the next it’s a lawsuit. via Getty)

By Sam Stilson

Well if we learned anything from UFC Fight Night 61, it’s that MMA is perhaps the most unpredictable sport in the world. That, and Bigfoot Silva is slowing shrinking and will soon be nothing but an Easter Island statue made of glass.

The fact that 10 of 11 underdogs won last week has surely given some hope to the massive long shots featured in both the main and co-main events of this weekend’s UFC 184 card. But confidence is hardly enough when facing the best of the best in the women’s division (though this guy might disagree).

Let’s take a look at who the money-makers are for UFC 184.


(Easy there, Dave. One second it’s doing your job, the next it’s a lawsuit. via Getty)

By Sam Stilson

Well if we learned anything from UFC Fight Night 61, it’s that MMA is perhaps the most unpredictable sport in the world. That, and Bigfoot Silva is slowing shrinking and will soon be nothing but an Easter Island statue made of glass.

The fact that 10 of 11 underdogs won last week has surely given some hope to the massive long shots featured in both the main and co-main events of this weekend’s UFC 184 card. But confidence is hardly enough when facing the best of the best in the women’s division (though this guy might disagree).

Let’s take a look at who the money-makers are for UFC 184.

The Sure Bets

Jake Ellenberger over Josh Koscheck at -210

Both men have not looked particularly dangerous as of late and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the loser get cut. That being said, this fight can be summed up like so: Koscheck no longer has a chin + Ellenberger hits really hard = Easy money.

James Krause over Valmir Lazaro at -185

Krause is a tall, long fighter with decent kickboxing who has only really lost to top-shelf competition (lately anyway). Lazaro hits hard and certainly isn’t an easy opponent, but he just lost a fight to James Vick,  who is cut from the same cloth as Krause. This bout will likely go down the same way.

The Live Dogs

Gleison Tibau over Tony Ferguson at +170

Don’t get me wrong, “El Cucuy” has looked awesome lately; his striking is getting really crisp and he’s continuing to develop his natural power. But Tibau as an underdog is hard to turn down. Gleison only loses to top 10 fighters, so this bout will say a lot about Ferguson’s potential. A slow grinding win for Gleison is enough of a possibility to lay some coin down on this one.

Roman Salazar over Norifumi Yamamoto at +250

Salazar is probably going to take this one. Not because he’s some blue-chip prospect, but because Kid Yamamoto is a shot fighter. He’s 37, he hasn’t looked good in six years and is coming off a three-year layoff plus a slew of injuries. The guy lost to Vaughan Lee, so a Salazar upset isn’t just a good bet. At this point it’s expected.

The Toss-Up

Dhiego Lima (EVEN) vs. Tim Means (-130)

This should be a barnburner, and with the odds this close a bet on either man is a good idea. Means is the more ruthless aggressive fighter whereas Lima takes a bit more of a calculated approach. Both have impressive Muay Thai games, but with Lima getting bombed out early by Eddie Gordon, the odds leaning in Means favour is accurate.

All odds provided by Bodog.

Gambling Addiction Enabler — ‘Fight Night 61: Bigfoot vs. Mir’ Edition

By CP Reader Sam Stilson

UFC Fight Night 61: Bigfoot vs. Mir is another top-heavy card that we’re starting to see a lot of on Fox Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass. It’s also a card that’s been compared to “a dumpster fire full of squirrel feces” by some of MMA’s more hyperbolic writers. In any case, the card does feature ranked fighters in the main event (take that, oversaturation!) and a whole lot of TUF quarter-finalists, raw prospects and last-minute replacements.

But that’s where the money is! If you haven’t heard of these guys, chances are the bookies haven’t either, and that right there is what upsets and parlays are made of. So join us after the jump to get the inside scoop on a card the UFC should be paying us to watch in the first place.

By CP Reader Sam Stilson

UFC Fight Night 61: Bigfoot vs. Mir is another top-heavy card that we’re starting to see a lot of on Fox Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass. It’s also a card that’s been compared to “a dumpster fire full of squirrel feces” by some of MMA’s more hyperbolic writers. In any case, the card does feature ranked fighters in the main event (take that, oversaturation!) and a whole lot of TUF quarter-finalists, raw prospects and last-minute replacements.

But that’s where the money is! If you haven’t heard of these guys, chances are the bookies haven’t either, and that right there is what upsets and parlays are made of. So join us after the jump to get the inside scoop on a card the UFC should be paying us to watch in the first place.

The Sure Bets

Sean Strickland over Santiago Ponzinibbio at -170

Strickland is an undefeated prospect with two wins in the UFC’s middleweight division. He’s making his welterweight debut here and the added size and strength against the undersized Ponzinibbio should allow him to steal a win in enemy territory.

Tiago Trator over Mike de la Torre at -210

Mike de la Torre hasn’t looked awesome in the UFC and would be 0-2 if not for an opponent’s failed drug test. Trator is a young fighter out of Team Nogueira who hasn’t lost in four years. He’s quicker, stronger and fighting at home. Should be a lock.

Jessica Andrade over Marion Reneau at -250

I’m surprised Andrade isn’t a bigger favourite. She’s 14 years younger than Reneau and is in the top 10 of her division. Reneau is a good athlete but I don’t see how she can win this fight.

The Good Dogs

Frank Mir over Antonio Silva at +240

Betting on Frank Mir is never a fun thing to do. He’s a supremely gifted fighter but with a glass chin and some poor fight IQ. Betting against? Not fun either. Even when he is borderline unconscious he can pull amazing submissions out of nowhere. So why consider betting on him at all? Because he’s fighting Antonio Silva. Silva has gotten his ass kicked badly in every fight since 2011. He’s 2-4-1 in those fights and both wins were come-from-behind surprise KOs. He’s looked terrible sans TRT and his chin has started to crumble. If Frank Mir still can win a fight against a top 10 heavyweight, this is that fight.

Douglas Silva over Cody Gibson at +200

Gibson somehow lost a fight to Manny Gamburyan he was dominating. His only UFC win, was an early stoppage over UFC washout Johnny Bedford. Don’t be surprised if he finds a way to lose.

The Toss-up

Michael Johnson at +135 vs. Edson Barboza at -165

Easily the best fight on the card. Barboza has looked great lately, but often chokes against elite talent. Johnson’s had a year off but prior to it looked like a contender. Bet at your peril!

All odds provided by Bodog.

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 183 Edition

(Silva hilariously reacts to the news that Diaz has missed his open workouts, via ZombieProphet.)

Can we level with you for a second, Nation? Last week, we dropped a ridiculous amount of money on a Krylov + Sicilia + Bader + Lusty Gusty parlay. Three quarters of the way through it, we felt like the precogs in Minority Report, and were already buying up rounds at the bar for complete strangers. “As soon as Gustafsson levels Rumble, free Patron for everyone!” we shouted to a chorus of cheers and back pats. The air of confidence surging through us was addictive, to the point that we even asked our high school crush, Jenny Bracegirdle, out on a date. Just coffee, but still, we were feeling it.

And then, the rug was swept out from under us, as it so often is. We mean literally. We couldn’t pay our tab, and the bouncers wrapped us in a rug and heaved us into a dumpster. Needless to say, Jenny Bracegirdle has yet to return our calls.

The point is, we could use a little extra cash this weekend, and we’re sure you could as well. Which is why we brought back our gambling expert, Dan George, to break out an old favorite and potentially save us from yet another weekend spent nursing our fractured egos (also, wrists). So join us after the jump for the return of the Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 183 Edition.


(Silva hilariously reacts to the news that Diaz has missed his open workouts, via ZombieProphet.)

Can we level with you for a second, Nation? Last week, we dropped a ridiculous amount of money on a Krylov + Sicilia + Bader + Lusty Gusty parlay. Three quarters of the way through it, we felt like the precogs in Minority Report, and were already buying up rounds at the bar for complete strangers. “As soon as Gustafsson levels Rumble, free Patron for everyone!” we shouted to a chorus of cheers and back pats. The air of confidence surging through us was addictive, to the point that we even asked our high school crush, Jenny Bracegirdle, out on a date. Just coffee, but still, we were feeling it.

And then, the rug was swept out from under us, as it so often is. We mean literally. We couldn’t pay our tab, and the bouncers wrapped us in a rug and heaved us into a dumpster. Needless to say, Jenny Bracegirdle has yet to return our calls.

The point is, we could use a little extra cash this weekend, and we’re sure you could as well. Which is why we brought back our gambling expert, Dan George, to break out an old favorite and potentially save us from yet another weekend spent nursing our fractured egos (also, wrists). So join us after the jump for the return of the Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 183 Edition.

Stay the Hell Away From

Tom Watson (+155) vs. Rafael Natal (-175)

Both fighters here are sporting a 1-2 record over their past three contests, and both have a propensity to go the distance inside the octagon. Watson and Natal also seem to share a similar fighting style, preferring (somewhat unpolished) striking to the grappling game, which could sabotage the alluring -130 prop bet that this fight goes the distance. Save the stress and cash for later on in the evening.

Tyron Woodley (even) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-120)

The odds alone make a strong case to simply sit back and enjoy what is sure to be a very close fight. Gastelum is most likely the razor thin favorite due to his impressive submission win over Jake Ellenberger just 2 months ago, coupled with his perfect 10-0 record. Woodley, however, will possess the experience advantage in this fight and will really be the one answering the questions as to whether or not he “chokes in big fights” — Dana White, ever the honest abe-hole.

If Woodley has not learned how to stay off the fence since his fights with Jake Shields and Nate Marquardt or how to close the distance since his bout with Rory MacDonald, than we may see Woodley once again be relegated to bridesmaid status on Saturday night. Both men have KO power, strong wrestling backgrounds, and are accustomed to imposing their will on their opponents, which makes this one simply too close to call.

The Good Dogs

Jim Hettes (+150) vs. Diego Brandao (-170)

Diego Brandao is coming off back to back losses to Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor, which may not necessarily mean that he is fighting for his job, but surely will be looking to right the ship at 145lbs to avoid going 0-3. With his grappling background and solid ground game, Hettes has a good chance to re-create the similar environment that Darren Elkins was able to thrive in against Brandao — one which chewed up the clock and limited Diego’s ability to create space and earn points on the cards. Look for the Sworysville, Pennsylvania native to use his slight size advantage in this fight to blanket Diego en route to a decision victory. It might not be pretty, but all those extra bills in your wallet sure will be.

Thiago Alves (+120) vs Jordan Mein (-140)

It may be going on 6 years now since Alves was a title contender, but he has to be the most alluring underdog on the main card here, based solely on the likelihood that this fight stays on the feet. Jordan Mein will not be looking for takedowns and may gain a false sense of security in his striking game against the ultra technical Alves, who likely holds an advantage in the counter striking department. Look for Alves to establish his patented (not to mention, vicious) leg kicks early on and mix in straight punches behind them to potentially catch Mein and pull off the upset.

Meisha Tate (+175) vs. Sarah McMann (-210)

Perhaps the sexiest underdog pick on the card and not only for obvious reasons, Meisha is a fine option when looking at the probability that McMann will be looking to get this fight to the ground early. Meisha is ever-improving, and look no further than the cerebral striking clinic she put on against Rin Nakai in the early rounds of their fight at Fight Night 52. Tate has fought consistently strong competition and only lost to the very best over the past 5 years, while McMann seems to be dominant over the lower-tiered ladies at 135lbs. This will be McMann’s second toughest test next to Rousey and may highlight McMann’s less evolved overall MMA skills if Meisha is able to avoid being taken down and keep McMann at a distance.

Joe Lauzon (+165) vs. Al Iaquinta (-190)

If you like Joe Lauzon here, chances are you are banking on his potential to submit Iaquinta, much like Mitch Clarke was able to do when he scored a massive upset over the heavy handed Serra Longo standout. Lauzon has a shot to pull off the upset here if he is able to avoid getting clipped by Iaquinta during his trademark blitz to begin the fight. Iaquinta may have looked outstanding against Pearson in his last outing, but Pearson never really threatened the takedown and left Al free to bear down and throw power shots. If Joe can mix it up and keep Al guessing, he should be able to land a takedown or two, wear Iaqunita out, and possibly catch him in a late submission.

(Ed note: In my completely unbiased opinion, my boy Joey Lauz is going to MURK THE SHIT OUT OF YOU, IAQUINTA. WOOO!!!!)

Other Main Card Bouts

Thales Leites (-475) vs Tim Boetsch (+380)

The only reason “The Barbarian” does not make the “good dogs” section is because Leites seems to have improved his striking to the point that he may be able to close the distance on Boetsch and get the fight on the ground before Tim has a chance to counter. Boetsch excels when he is able to brawl with his opponents, and while Leites is coming off back-to-back KO victories, he will surely not be looking to exchange with Boetsch if he can get this fight to the ground. This is supported by the inflated -475 line in favor of Thales.

Anderson Silva (-470) vs. Nick Diaz (+375)

We have all read about the props for the upcoming superbowl, but just imagine the fun the bookies could have had with props on Nick Diaz leading up to and during Saturday’s fight. Will Nick miss his flight to Las Vegas? Will Nick miss the open workouts? Will Nick land a Stockton slap during the fight? The possibilities are endless and probably more interesting than picking a winner between Silva and Diaz.

It is undeniable that this fight is interesting and worthy of being a main event, but the prospect that Nick most likely won’t “survive this shit” is slowly starting to become more prevalent as you read the headlines in advance of the weigh-ins. Whether or not Diaz is just showing up to collect a big payday or not, he is a proud fighter who has never been stopped inside the Octagon and will probably do better than most believe. He might just have an edge on the ground as well, but the open stance and looping punches he often resorts to simply offer too many openings for the Spider. Silva should be able to use this fight for what many believe it was made for, a tune up/showcase to prove he can still be a viable contender for a title shot in the immediate future.
A -150 prop bet that Anderson wins inside the distance is your best bet, as Nick is hittable and that’s really all it takes. While he probably won’t get knocked out cold, Diaz may have to cover up until the referee steps in to call the fight off.

Parlay 1

McCall+Hettes

Parlay 2

Silva+Tate

Props

-Silva inside the distance

-Tate vs McMann goes the distance

Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler Head-to-Head: UFC 173 Edition


(Damn it, TJ. You’re supposed to hold the imaginary title belt above your head.)

UFC 173 may not be heavy on star power, but it presents some interesting opportunities for the MMA fan with a crippling gambling addiction looking to make a few bucks this weekend. Join staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo as they break down their favorite fights, underdogs and the most creative ways to flush your hard earned cash down the crapper in a “versus” style edition of the gambling addiction enabler. Will Renan Barao extend his winning streak? Is Daniel Cormier a lock against the aging Dan Henderson? Read on for our picks – with odds courtesy of 5Dimes.eu– and may the winnings be yours.

The Good Dogs

Jared: I’d like to start by preemptively shaming you, Seth, as well as the Potato Nation, and truly, every last so-called “MMA fan” who isn’t giving Dan Henderson a smidgen of hope against Daniel Cormier tomorrow night. Seriously, you guys are the worst.

I don’t care if he’s fighting Fedor on Zeus’ shoulders and both can punch but only Zeus can kick, Dan Henderson should *never* be listed at anything worse than even odds. He’s defeated heavyweights, light heavyweights, middleweights, supposed Emperors, and more legends of the sport than pugilistic dementia. That he’s currently hovering around the +600 mark is not only an insult to the man, the myth, the psuedo-Native American that is “Hollywood,” but a disgrace to this sport on par with YAMMA Pit Fighting. TRT, SchmeeRT, Dan Henderson will walk through Cormier’s punches before delivering his greatest H-Bomb to date, at 2:03 of the second round, amen. Say it with me, folks: Dan. F*cking. Henderson.


(Damn it, TJ. You’re supposed to hold the imaginary title belt above your head.)

UFC 173 may not be heavy on star power, but it presents some interesting opportunities for the MMA fan with a crippling gambling addiction looking to make a few bucks this weekend. Join staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo as they break down their favorite fights, underdogs and the most creative ways to flush your hard earned cash down the crapper in a “versus” style edition of the gambling addiction enabler. Will Renan Barao extend his winning streak? Is Daniel Cormier a lock against the aging Dan Henderson? Read on for our picks – with odds courtesy of 5Dimes.eu– and may the winnings be yours.

The Good Dogs

Jared: I’d like to start by preemptively shaming you, Seth, as well as the Potato Nation, and truly, every last so-called “MMA fan” who isn’t giving Dan Henderson a smidgen of hope against Daniel Cormier tomorrow night. Seriously, you guys are the worst.

I don’t care if he’s fighting Fedor on Zeus’ shoulders and both can punch but only Zeus can kick, Dan Henderson should *never* be listed at anything worse than even odds. He’s defeated heavyweights, light heavyweights, middleweights, supposed Emperors, and more legends of the sport than pugilistic dementia. That he’s currently hovering around the +600 mark is not only an insult to the man, the myth, the psuedo-Native American that is “Hollywood,” but a disgrace to this sport on par with YAMMA Pit Fighting. TRT, SchmeeRT, Dan Henderson will walk through Cormier’s punches before delivering his greatest H-Bomb to date, at 2:03 of the second round, amen. Say it with me, folks: Dan. F*cking. Henderson.

(Also, Francisco Rivera at +150 isn’t a bad pick, and Chico Camus is a proven UFC-level fighter with a wealth of experience over TUF 18 winner Chris Holdsworth, who at just 5-0, is being slightly overvalued as a 3-to-1 favorite.)

Seth: I won’t argue that I don’t deserve shame and all, but let’s not act like Henderson wasn’t getting a “$5 for Shiggles” bet out of my wallet this weekend. As for the other good dogs, Rivera upsetting Mizugaki is as safe of an underdog bet as you’ll find on this card, and far be it from me not to wager on a gritty sumbitch like Chico Camus – who holds two upset victories in his 3-1 UFC run, mind you – bullying a 5-0 TUF winner for three rounds. And since I’ve never been one to let pesky little details like “never having seen either guy fight before” stop me from throwing money at my bookie, I’ll pick Li “The Leech” JingLiang to upset the TUF washout fighting on short notice who can’t even spell “bulldog” correctly. Becuz propper spelleng, yoll.

Stay the Hell Away From

Jared: Varner vs. Krause. Becuz inconcistensee. I put good money down on Varner to beat Abel Trujillo at UFC 169, and for most of the fight, Varner was kicking “Killa’s” ass all over the octagon. Then he got cocky/tired and walked straight into a haymaker from Hell. I just so happened to fall out of  moving van that night, if you know what I mean.

Anyway, the former WEC lightweight champ has been consistent in the entertainment department since unretiring, but inconsistent everywhere else. And I’m not sure whether Krause was faking, confused, or just plain hurt by Bobby Green’s body kicks in his last bout, but I do know that I’m not placing money on either of these dudes because I can’t medically suffer another “accidental” concussion in the next 30 days.

Seth: Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Ellenberger is going to make for a great fight. And that’s the only prediction I’m willing to stake my all but nonexistent reputation on. Just sit back and enjoy this one, okay?

The Main Event

Seth: I think this will sum up the main event nicely…

Jared: Good point, Seth, but I’m thinking something more along the lines of…

 

As for my prediction…here’s some footage of TJ Dillashaw training on an airplane. It will not help him. I am done speaking on this subject.

Other Fights Worth Investing In
Anthony Njokuani (-225) vs. Vinc Pichel (+205)
Sam Sicilia (-140) vs. Aaron Phillips (+130)
Tony Ferguson (-280) vs. Katsunori Kikuno (+255)

Jared: UFC 173 doesn’t present a ton of interesting gambling opportunities in my eyes, truth be told, but Anthony Njokuani at just -225 against Vinc Pichel, a.k.a Rustam Khabilov’s ragdoll, seems like a steal to me. I don’t even know who A-A-ron Phillips is, so TUF 15 alum Sam Sicilia at -150 seems like a safe parlay bet, even though he’s dropped 3 out of 5 in the UFC. Sicilia’s likely fighting for his UFC career at this point, and will hopefully use that extra motivation to TKO this newbie in the first.

Seth: Not so fast, Jared. Aaron Phillips is part of Tim Creuder’s stable of roughneck brawlers from South Louisiana; he should be a tough opponent for Sicilia. Ain’t no way I’m betting on Sicilia to win this one, but Phillips at +130 doesn’t provide an attractive enough ROI to wager on a guy making his UFC debut. So instead I’ll advise everyone that Tony Ferguson is a safe bet against Katsunori Kikuno. “Japanese veteran on American soil” usually doesn’t end well, and Ferguson has proven to be far more competent at fighting than he is at picking out back tattoos (I mean seriously…).

Jared: You fool. Those are quite clearly Max Holloway‘s super-original angel wing tattoos. No? Ben Henderson then? Renan Barao?

Tony gon’ whoop dat ass, tho.

Suggested Stakes for a $50 Wager
Jared: $30 on a Njokuani + Sicilia + Ferguson parlay (nets $69.48)
$10 on Dan F*cking Henderson (nets $57.50)
$10 on Camus (nets $28)

Seth: $30 on Ferguson + Rivera + Njokuani parlay (nets $116.23)
$10 on Camus + Barao parlay (nets $33.35)
$5 on Dan Henderson (nets $28.75)
$5 on Jingliang + Camus + Rivera + Ferguson + Barao + Njokuani #YOLO parlay (nets $243.29)