Gambling Addition Enabler | UFC Betting Sites

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC on FX: Browne vs. Bigfoot’ Edition

For the past several UFC events, CagePotato reader/contributor Dan “Get Off Me” George has been holding down the Gambling Addiction Enabler’s with the poise and classiness of a 16th century Bolognese swordsman. Unfortunately for you, he only likes to bet on the big time PPV events, so you’re stuck with me for the time being. Fortunately for you, I write a lot less than he does and love to get reckless with my hard earned cash, so let’s do this! Listed below are the odds for UFC on FX: Browne vs. Bigfoot, courtesy of BestFightOdds, followed by my advice which simply put has never been wrong not once ever.

MAIN CARD
Travis Browne (-240) vs. Antonio Silva(+200)
Jake Ellenberger (-360) vs. Jay Hieron (+300)
John Dodson (-200) vs. Jussier Formiga (+170)
Josh Neer (-280) vs. Justin Edwards (+240)

PRELIMINARY CARD
Yves Edwards (+175) vs. Jeremy Stephens (-225)
Danny Castillo (+130) vs. Michael Johnson (-160)
Dennis Hallman (+190) vs. Thiago Tavares (-250)
Shane Roller (+150) vs. Jacob Volkmann (-180)
Diego Nunes (-180) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+150)
Phil Harris (+230) vs. Darren Uyenoyama (-290)
Marcus LeVesseur (-105) vs. Carlo Prater (-125)
Mike Pierce (-170) vs. Aaron Simpson (+150)

Thoughts…

MAIN CARD
Travis Browne (-240) vs. Antonio Silva(+200)
Jake Ellenberger (-360) vs. Jay Hieron (+300)
John Dodson (-200) vs. Jussier Formiga (+170)
Josh Neer (-280) vs. Justin Edwards (+240)

Thoughts…

As I previously mentioned, I am going to be short and sweet for this week’s enabler. That means no prop bets and no fight-by-fight analysis, just a straight look at who I think is being under/overvalued and a suggested parlay.

The Good Dogs: Your best chances at upsets in my opinion are heavily based around the grappling-oriented gameplans of several fighters on the card. Hallman vs. Tavares, Volkmann vs. Roller, and Castillo vs. Johnson will be determined by the abilities of Volkmann, Hallman, and Castillo to get the fight to the ground and grapple out a decision. In all three cases, you are looking at only a slight to moderate underdog hovering in the +150 to +200 range. Of these three matches, the person who stands the best chance of implementing this gameplan is Dennis Hallman, who holds a notable size advantage over most every lightweight out there including Tavares. Although he has looked great lately and has a solid Jiu-Jitsu base, I think Hallman should be able stay heavy on top of Tavares and avoid getting submitted long enough to score a close decision victory.

While we all know that Shane Roller is undoubtedly more well rounded than Jacob Volkmann, we also know that it takes a hell of a wrestler to deal with the grappling prowess of the Minnesotan. Roller, while being a talented grappler in his own right, does not lead me to believe that he can defend Volkmann’s takedowns when a wrestler like Danny Castillo couldn’t. Volkmann has shown that he can be submitted by an opponent with an offensive guard, but the key to a Roller victory here is going to be keeping the fight standing. Roller showed in the Thiago Tavares fight that he does pack some power, so if you think he’ll be able to fend off Volkmann’s takedowns for long enough to land a haymaker, I’d suggest a wager on him as well. Personally, I just don’t think that will be the case. Castillo vs. Johnson is in the same vein. Johnson will be looking to keep things on the feet, but Castillo is a stellar grappler who is strong on top and will probably be looking to exploit Johnson’s somewhat weak submission defense. If he is able to get Johnson to the mat in the first round, expect him to dictate the action for the rest of the fight.

There is one other option: Bart Palaszewski vs. Diego Nunes.

This fight is a little easier to gauge: Both men are primarily strikers, both are coming off losses, and both are 1-2 in their past 3. The difference in their striking lies in pure aggressiveness; Nunes is known for using his kicks to keep his opponents at bay and has shown little killer instinct in the past couple of years, whereas “Bartimus” loves to drag things into a good old fashioned brawl and let the fists fly. Bart should also hold an advantage in the grappling game, so expect to see him utilize some clinch work and dirty boxing to eek out a decision over Nunes if things get hairy on the feet.

Come to think of it, that was pretty much a fight-by-fight analysis. MOVING ON.

Stay the Hell Away From: The main event. Antonio Silva is not listed as a big enough dog to risk a bet on and Browne has notched impressive victories over Stefan Struve and Chad Griggs in between weak performances against Cheick Kongo and Rob Broughton. Browne should easily take this, but you don’t want to risk your parlay on whether or not he’ll have an off night.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Pierce – Stephens – Dodson – Ellenberger

Official CagePotato Parlay #2: Pierce – Hallman – Dodson

Worthy Side Bets: Castillo and Palaszewski

Agree or disagree?

–J. Jones

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC on FX Edition

(I got blood on my hands and there’s no remorse, I got blood on my…well, you get the point.)

We’ll be completely honest, folks, it has been awhile since the official CagePotato Parlay has shown us a return worth getting excited about, or any return for that matter. Bill collectors were ignored, drugs were peddled, and we even had to turn a trick or two to solve our gambling debts, but as they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. Last week, we actually managed to end up in the green, so what better opportunity to keep the ball rolling than the UFC’s debut on FX tomorrow? Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our advice below.

Main Card
Pat Barry (-165) vs. Christian Morecraft (+145)
Mike Easton (-340) vs. Jared Papazian (+280)
Duane Ludwig (-110) vs. Josh Neer (-110)
Jim Miller (-170) vs. Melvin Guillard (+150)

Undercard
Nick Denis (-240) vs. Joseph Sandoval (+200)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Pat Schilling (EV)
Fabricio Camoes (-325) vs. Tom Hayden (+265)
Kamal Shalorus (-135) vs. Habib Nurmagomedov (+115)
Charlie Brenneman (-300) vs. Daniel Roberts (+250)
Eric Schafer (-155) vs. Jorge Rivera (+135)

Thoughts…

(I got blood on my hands and there’s no remorse, I got blood on my…well, you get the point.)

We’ll be completely honest, folks, it has been awhile since the official CagePotato Parlay has shown us a return worth getting excited about, or any return for that matter. Bill collectors were ignored, drugs were peddled, and we even had to turn a trick or two to solve our gambling debts. But as they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. Last week, we actually managed to end up in the green, so what better opportunity to keep the ball rolling than the UFC’s debut on FX tomorrow? Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our advice below.

Main Card
Pat Barry (-165) vs. Christian Morecraft (+145)
Mike Easton (-340) vs. Jared Papazian (+280)
Duane Ludwig (-110) vs. Josh Neer (-110)
Jim Miller (-170) vs. Melvin Guillard (+150)

Thoughts…

The Main Event: Here’s what we know; Melvin Guillard may just be the hardest hitting 155er in the UFC, and has greatly improved his takedown defense over the years. What we also know is that Melvin recently decided to leave the team responsible for his recent success to join a camp that allowed Anthony Johnson to show up twelve pounds overweight at the UFC 142 weigh-ins. Oh yeah, and he doesn’t exactly have a ground game worth bragging about, and against a Jiu-Jitsu ace like Miller, that spells trouble.

On the contrary, Jim Miller is a smart, well rounded fighter who has been impossible to knock out thus far in his career. Is that saying Melvin can’t knock him out? Well, allow us to answer that question with a question; did anyone expect Guillard to steamroll Evan Dunham like he did? That being said, Miller is the worst kind of match-up for Guillard, and he should be able to snatch up a submission within three rounds.

The Good Dogs: Off the bat, Jorge Rivera looks good at +135. Though he’s dropped two straight, he’s got some serious power in his punches, and is facing a consistent UFC under-performer in Eric Schafer. This one really depends on whether or not “Red” can get it to the mat; if Jorge can stick-and-move, he’s got this one. Another name that stands out is one you probably won’t recognize, Habib Nurmagomedov. The man is 16-0 with an even KO to submission ratio, and is facing a toguh but flawed fighter in Kamal Shalorus. “The Price of Persia” has not fought since being TKO’ed by Jim Miller nearly a year ago, and though he may have some big league experience on “The Nurm” (official CP nickname), he also has some HUGE holes in his stand up game.

Also, several other gambling sites have Josh Neer listed as a slight underdog to Duane Ludwig at the moment, which could net you a small profit with a lone bet. Neer has a much better ground game, an arguably better gas tank, and only been stopped by strikes once in his career. Placing a small bet on “The Dentist” doesn’t seem like a terrible idea, but keep that one away from your parlay.

Tread Lightly: When placing your bet on Pat Barry. Don’t get us wrong, if Stefan Struve and Matt Mitrione were able to stop Christian Morecraft in the fashion they did, then “HD” should by all means have his way with him. But anyone who possesses a basic submission knowledge poses a threat to Barry *cough* Tim Hague, anyone?* We still like him to win, but aren’t going to bet the house on this one. He makes a nice addition to a parlay though.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Miller + Easton + Barry + Denis

100 bucks nets you $367.65 in return. Now, let’s all hold hands and pray to our collective Gods that we don’t have to pay another visit to Big Tim after this one.

-Danga

Gambling Addiction Enabler: TUF 14 Finale Edition

The Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale is just two days away, and though the bookies haven’t given us much to work with, we decided to throw y’all some last minute betting advice come fight night in case you plan on bluffing the piss out of Johnny Chan in the Palms Casino afterward. Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with the almighty wisdom of the Great Potato, below.

Main Card (Spike TV)
Michael Bisping (-185) vs. Jason Miller (+160)
T.J. Dillashaw (-205) vs. John Dodson (+165)
Diego Brandao (-320) vs. Dennis Bermudez (+250)
Tony Ferguson (-255) vs. Yves Edwards (+205)

The Main Event: Let’s get right to it. Bisping has a lot of advantages going into this fight: he’s never been submitted, which is Miller’s bread and butter, he’s fought more in the past year, and he has considerably less pressure on him than Mayhem, who is out to prove to casual and hardcore fans alike that he is more than just a goofball TV personality. And we all know that Bisping will do anything, and I mean anything, to destroy those who slander him publicly, so Miller will most definitely be facing at a steep hill to climb for his first appearance in the octagon since 2005. But there are a couple crucial outside factors here. As Miller has stated, he is one hard headed son of a bitch, and despite what Bisping’s record says, have we ever seen him truly overwhelm an opponent as tough as Mayhem on the feet? You could argue Denis Kang, but I would respond to that argument with a pat on your head and a condescending chuckle.

Now let’s talk about grappling, shall we? Miller showed that he could roll with the best in his five rounder against Jake Shields, at one point even managing to catch the Cesar Gracie black belt in a rear naked choke late in the second round. Granted he would go on to lose that fight, but it’s not crazy to think that if Miller can take this fight to the ground, then he could hold a distinct advantage. But Miller has said that he plans to keep it standing, so it really comes down to whether you think Bisping can finish Miller on the feet (or at least jab and jog a decision over him) and whether or not Mayhem will allow that to happen.

The TUF Finals: Since we’ve recently been made aware of the fact that Dodson has the ability to KO you back to your hometown, he’s looking pretty good as a modest underdog. He’s easily the quicker of the two, and probably more athletic. But if Dillashaw can do anything, it’s take you to the mat and unleash a clinic of ground-and-pound. And though Dodson has been able to spring to his feet quickly after being taken down in his time on the show, he has still shown the ability to be taken down, and to far inferior grapplers than Dillashaw, nonetheless. The wrestling game is going to determine the winner of this one, and I think Dillashaw will come out on top.

I’m not totally counting out Dennis Bermudez, but I’m pretty damn close to. Diego Brandao is a killer, ladies and gentlemen, and if Akira Corissani was able to tag Bermudez as much as he did, then someone with Brandao’s power will surely put him away. Plus, can any of you remember the last TUF contestant to run through all three of his opponents on the show via first round TKO? I’ll give you a hint; he’s also fighting Saturday, and he won last season’s The Ultimate Fighter. Brandao has got this one.

The Other Fight: Yves Edwards is a tough, well rounded veteran who has the tools to put just about anyone in trouble, and given Ferguson’s lack of octagon experience, we’ve yet to see both his chin and ground game tested. But Ferguson is a precise striker that has an ability to punish your jaw worse than a Now & Later, and since Sam Stout already showed him the road to Edwards’ off button, expect Ferguson to sprinkle that road with the teeth of the “Thugjitsu Master” en route to a second or third round TKO.

Official CagePotato Parlay: We’re going balls out for this one and parlaying the entire main card. Since the fate of mankind lies in his hands (and we’ve always loved a good underdog) it’s going something like this:

Miller + Dillashaw + Brandao + Ferguson

50 bucks gets you just under a 300 dollar payout.

-The Great Potato

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 126 Edition

Super Bowl weekend. For America’s degenerate gamblers it’s like Christmas, St. Patrick’s Day and the Day of Eternal Judgment all rolled into one. The so-called experts estimate that over $100 million wordwide could change hands in bets on the Super Bowl this year. Slightly less than that will probably be wagered on Saturday night’s UFC 126, but as long as some of it winds up in your pocket, who’s complaining? To help you in that quest for the rich stuff, the Gambling Addiction Enabler is back.

See below for fight odds as of this writing (they appear to be changing pretty fast, more evidence that there are lot of bored gamblers playing out the string until Sunday’s kickoff). An explanation of what it all means is right here, though if you need that right now might not be the best time to jump into this thing with both feet. For the rest of you, let’s start earning, shall we?