(Clearly, trash-talking skills have not been factored into the odds here.)
We’re just over a month out from the highly-anticipated middleweight showdown between Michael Bisping and Luke Rockhold at Fight Night 55, and tensions between the two could not be higher (think Nick Diaz and Joe Rogan binge-watching Scooby Doo episodes on Netflix. That high.). Both guys are coming off big wins over Cung Le and Tim Boetsch, respectively, and the winner could easily find himself in title contention for the first time in their UFC career. But the most important question regarding this pivotal matchup remains: Yeah, but can I make any money off it?
Well, if the early odds are any indication…maybe? According to BestFightOdds, Bisping is currently being given slightly worse than 2 to 1 odds (+223)against Rockhold despite coming off arguably the most impressive performance of his career (and against another roided-up opponent, no less). Rockhold, meanwhile, is hovering around the 3-to-1 mark (-339) as a favorite.
Our thoughts…
(Clearly, trash-talking skills have not been factored into the odds here.)
We’re just over a month out from the highly-anticipated middleweight showdown between Michael Bisping and Luke Rockhold at Fight Night 55, and tensions between the two could not be higher (think Nick Diaz and Joe Rogan binge-watching Scooby Doo episodes on Netflix. That high.). Both guys are coming off big wins over Cung Le and Tim Boetsch, respectively, and the winner could easily find himself in title contention for the first time in their UFC career. But the most important question regarding this pivotal matchup remains: Yeah, but can I make any money off it?
Well, if the early odds are any indication…maybe? According to BestFightOdds, Bisping is currently being given slightly worse than 2 to 1 odds (+223)against Rockhold despite coming off arguably the most impressive performance of his career (and against another roided-up opponent, no less). Rockhold, meanwhile, is hovering around the 3-to-1 mark (-339) as a favorite.
This matchup really comes down to whether or not you think Bisping will be outgunned by Rockhold on the feet, as the only guy to successfully keep Bisping on his back for more than a moment has been Tim Kennedy, a far more decorated wrestler than Rockhold (who albeit could not take Rockhold down in their 2012 Strikeforce title fight). The odds likely reflect the fact that Rockhold has shown the ability to finish a fighter with body shots in the past, whereas Bisping found the most resistance against Le in the form of the body shot.
Then again, Bisping’s easily faced the higher-level competition of the two, and no amount of wind-surfing on Rockhold’s part will bring his cardio to the level of “The Count”, whose resting heart rate is something like 4 beats a minute.
But what do you think Nation? Is Rockhold going to run through Bisping in Hendo-esque fashion, or is “The Count” being undervalued here?
(I mean, I *guess* pulling this off could be considered an advantage. I guess.)
This might not come as all that big a shock to you, but there’s been a slight shift in the UFC 163 UFC 164 odds as of late. Mainly, that of the main event featherweight lightweight title bout between Jose AldoBen Henderson and T.J. GrantAnthony Pettis. Despite opening as a slight favorite over the last man to defeat him when the replacement matchup was first announced, Henderson’s line has seen a significant dip over the past couple of weeks. According to BestFightOdds, Pettis is listed as high as -125 over Henderson, who is listed between -105 and -115 on various gambling sites.
So yeah, it’s not exactly breaking news. But honestly, we really wanted to use the Henderson/Pettis update as an opportunity to inform you of this weekend’s Cage Warriors 57 event, which if the odds are any indication, should feature at least *two* in-ring decapitations. In the evening’s main event, UFC/Bellator veteran Paul Daleyis listed as a -1700 favorite over opponent Jimmy Pocket, a six year-old child with rickets and a pegleg who…I’m sorry, Daley will actually be fighting Lukasz Chlewicki, a 10-2 Polish fighter who we should also assume is receiving this fight as part of his final, dying wish. Because otherwise, what the fuck?
Also set to “compete” on the Cage Warriors card are Aldric Cassata and Jose Luis Zapater, currently listed as +600 underdogs to -1200 favorites Danny Roberts and Ronnie Mann, respectively. May the ghost of Keith Hackney protect those poor gentlemen. He’s dead, right?
(I mean, I *guess* pulling this off could be considered an advantage. I guess.)
This might not come as all that big a shock to you, but there’s been a slight shift in the UFC 163 UFC 164 odds as of late. Mainly, that of the main event featherweight lightweight title bout between Jose AldoBen Henderson and T.J. GrantAnthony Pettis. Despite opening as a slight favorite over the last man to defeat him when the replacement matchup was first announced, Henderson’s line has seen a significant dip over the past couple of weeks. According to BestFightOdds, Pettis is listed as high as -125 over Henderson, who is listed between -105 and -115 on various gambling sites.
So yeah, it’s not exactly breaking news. But honestly, we really wanted to use the Henderson/Pettis update as an opportunity to inform you of this weekend’s Cage Warriors 57 event, which if the odds are any indication, should feature at least *two* in-ring decapitations. In the evening’s main event, UFC/Bellator veteran Paul Daleyis listed as a -1700 favorite over opponent Jimmy Pocket, a six year-old child with rickets and a pegleg who…I’m sorry, Daley will actually be fighting Lukasz Chlewicki, a 10-2 Polish fighter who we should also assume is receiving this fight as part of his final, dying wish. Because otherwise, what the fuck?
Also set to “compete” on the Cage Warriors card are Aldric Cassata and Jose Luis Zapater, currently listed as +600 underdogs to -1200 favorites Danny Roberts and Ronnie Mann, respectively. May the ghost of Keith Hackney protect those poor gentlemen. He’s dead, right?
How about some MMA news that doesn’t involve a fighter/manager sticking his foot in his mouth?
Yesterday, it was announced that Jon Jones will meet his next challenge in the form of Swedish wrecking machine Alexander Gustafssonat UFC 165 in September. Your reaction was the typical mix of childish enthusiasm and overwhelming positivity that we’ve come to expect: “I don’t think he has a chance!” one of you emphatically declared, “This is a dumb fight,” praised another, “blah blah blah Bones should fight at heavyweight,” chimed in a third. Damn, does anything truly put a smile on your faces?
In any case, the early gambling lines seem to agree with most of you Taters that, yes, Jones vs. Gustafsson is nothing more than the latest in a seriesofsquashmatches that have constituted the Bones Era. With the matchup still months away, Jones has already opened as a -800 favorite to Gustafsson’s +500 odds. Ouch.
How about some MMA news that doesn’t involve a fighter/manager sticking his foot in his mouth?
Yesterday, it was announced that Jon Jones will meet his next challenge in the form of Swedish wrecking machine Alexander Gustafssonat UFC 165 in September. Your reaction was the typical mix of childish enthusiasm and overwhelming positivity that we’ve come to expect: “I don’t think he has a chance!” one of you emphatically declared, “This is a dumb fight,” praised another, “blah blah blah Bones should fight at heavyweight,” chimed in a third. Damn, does anything truly put a smile on your faces?
In any case, the early gambling lines seem to agree with most of you Taters that, yes, Jones vs. Gustafsson is nothing more than the latest in a seriesofsquashmatches that have constituted the Bones Era. With the matchup still months away, Jones has already opened as a -800 favorite to Gustafsson’s +500 odds. Ouch.
Personally, I think Gustafsson’s size should at the very least prevent him from getting absolutely manhandled by the champ, and expect to see that window slightly narrow as UFC 165 approaches. That being said, Gustafsson hasn’t really proved that he has eliminated the hole in his submission defense Phil Davis was able to exploit at UFC 112. I’m not saying that he hasn’t, but his recent wins over Vladdy, Thiago Silva and “Shogun” Rua were largely contested on the feet.
Sure, “The Mauler” has two UFC submission victories to his credit, but they came over James Te Huna and Cyrille Diabate, two fighters who aren’t exactly known for their submission prowess. Jones may make the claim that Jiu-Jitsu is his weakest area, but that hasn’t stopped him from submitting such BJJ black belts as Vitor Belfort and Lyoto Machida, so Gustafsson better be prepared for the champ’s creative grappling attack to say the least.
So, Potato Nation, do these early odds actually make you want to risk placing a small bet on “The Mauler” or do they have you heading for the nearest exit?
According to our current homepage poll, 43% of you think Cat Zingano at least stands a chance of victory when she challenges Ronda Rousey for the UFC women’s bantamweight title following their TUF 18 coaching stint. If only the oddsmakers were so confident. Despite Zingano’s comeback thrashing of Miesha Tate earlier this month, Rousey opened up as a stunning -825 betting favorite in the future matchup, with Zingano opening at +475. (Translation: At those odds, you’d have to wager $825 on Rousey to collect a $100 profit if she wins, while a $100 wager on Zingano would pay out a $475 profit if the challenger manages to score an upset.)
We haven’t seen a betting line that lopsided for a UFC title fight since…well, Rousey’s last fight against Liz Carmouche. To put this in perspective, Jon Jones originally opened at just -600 for his UFC 159 fight against the totally-fucked Chael Sonnen, although most betting sites now have Jones in the -800 to -900 range. In other words, the oddsmakers feel that Cat Zingano has about as good a chance of beating Ronda Rousey as Chael Sonnen does of winning a title fight in the weight class above his own. Yeesh. Sorry, Cat.
Bottom line, if you think Zingano has a shot in this one, consider laying down some cash, and quickly. Personally, we’ll stick with our usual investment strategy of flushing $20 bills down the toilet when we find them hidden in our stack of $100s. The price of gold may rise and fall, but that toilet remains as stable as something you sit on and crap into. I don’t know where I was going with this.
According to our current homepage poll, 43% of you think Cat Zingano at least stands a chance of victory when she challenges Ronda Rousey for the UFC women’s bantamweight title following their TUF 18 coaching stint. If only the oddsmakers were so confident. Despite Zingano’s comeback thrashing of Miesha Tate earlier this month, Rousey opened up as a stunning -825 betting favorite in the future matchup, with Zingano opening at +475. (Translation: At those odds, you’d have to wager $825 on Rousey to collect a $100 profit if she wins, while a $100 wager on Zingano would pay out a $475 profit if the challenger manages to score an upset.)
We haven’t seen a betting line that lopsided for a UFC title fight since…well, Rousey’s last fight against Liz Carmouche. To put this in perspective, Jon Jones originally opened at just -600 for his UFC 159 fight against the totally-fucked Chael Sonnen, although most betting sites now have Jones in the -800 to -900 range. In other words, the oddsmakers feel that Cat Zingano has about as good a chance of beating Ronda Rousey as Chael Sonnen does of winning a title fight in the weight class above his own. Yeesh. Sorry, Cat.
Bottom line, if you think Zingano has a shot in this one, consider laying down some cash, and quickly. Personally, we’ll stick with our usual investment strategy of flushing $20 bills down the toilet when we find them hidden in our stack of $100s. The price of gold may rise and fall, but that toilet remains as stable as something you sit on and crap into. I don’t know where I was going with this.
(This time around, the UFC’s marketing department is looking to drive home the notion that sex sells once and for all.)
By Dan “Get off Me” George
In the immortal words of Bruce Buffer, “It’s Time!”
On the eve of perhaps the most anticipated UFC rematch in history, I hope to bring my fellow CP readers some insight on how to save your kneecaps from the bookies and perhaps even make a buck or two by trying to follow my logic with regards to potential winners and losers for UFC 148.
For the sake of brevity, I’d like to focus on the dogs. The real money is made betting on the underdogs, and besides, there is nothing more exciting than watching a guy like Alan Belcher twist and turn his way out of certain demise en route to cashing out at three times the amount you originally placed on him (Ed note: Way to rub it in, Dan).
All of our betting odds for this week’s enabler come courtesy of BestFightOdds, so let’s get it on!
I like Roller here, the price is fair and I do not see Alessio being able to do much but play defense in this fight. Look for Roller to pull out a decision while Alessio finds himself on the bottom or defending takedowns for the majority of the contest, not unlike his most recent decision loss to Mark Bocek at UFC 145. Simple.
This line has moved in favor of Fukuda slightly over the past 24hrs, showing that the public likes Fukuda more and more as the small underdog. I like Philippou if for nothing more than his performance against Court McGee, a fighter similar to Fukuda who likes to move forward and press the action. Philippou has ever-improving takedown defense and better striking than Fukuda, specifically with his hands, and I like him to stop Fukuda’s takedowns and make him pay with his fists.
(This time around, the UFC’s marketing department is looking to drive home the notion that sex sells once and for all.)
By Dan “Get off Me” George
In the immortal words of Bruce Buffer, “It’s Time!”
On the eve of perhaps the most anticipated UFC rematch in history, I hope to bring my fellow CP readers some insight on how to save your kneecaps from the bookies and perhaps even make a buck or two by trying to follow my logic with regards to potential winners and losers for UFC 148.
For the sake of brevity, I’d like to focus on the dogs. The real money is made betting on the underdogs, and besides, there is nothing more exciting than watching a guy like Alan Belcher twist and turn his way out of certain demise en route to cashing out at three times the amount you originally placed on him (Ed note: Way to rub it in, Dan).
All of our betting odds for this week’s enabler come courtesy of BestFightOdds, so let’s get it on!
I like Roller here, the price is fair and I do not see Alessio being able to do much but play defense in this fight. Look for Roller to pull out a decision while Alessio finds himself on the bottom or defending takedowns for the majority of the contest, not unlike his most recent decision loss to Mark Bocek at UFC 145. Simple.
This line has moved in favor of Fukuda slightly over the past 24hrs, showing that the public likes Fukuda more and more as the small underdog. I like Philippou if for nothing more than his performance against Court McGee, a fighter similar to Fukuda who likes to move forward and press the action. Philippou has ever-improving takedown defense and better striking than Fukuda, specifically with his hands, and I like him to stop Fukuda’s takedowns and make him pay with his fists.
Not with a ten foot pole, thank you very much. There is no way in hell would I touch Guillard at 30 cents on my dollar, and Camoes (or anyone, really) definitely has the ability to sub Melvin, especially given his propensity to throw as many flying knees as humanely possible against the grapplers he faces. If anything, I would look at the prop on the fight not going the distance, because I cannot see this fight being decided by the judges.
I like “The Eagle” for this one. He’s undefeated, relentless with his forward pressure and wrestling, and is not afraid to swing for the fences in the meantime. Tibau is in -200 territory and often relies on his ground game to get him to a decision win. I think the Khabib uses his Judo, Sambo, and size advantage to keep Tibau against the fence, maybe finishing Tibau later in the fight or winning on the score cards.
My heart wants Menjivar, but Easton has this propensity to win closely contested fights on the cards. It is basically a pick’em, and gun to my head, I am leaning towards Easton. Ivan has always had trouble with wrestlers throughout his career, and may simply be outgunned when forced to deal with the ridiculous speed and power of Easton.
Is there a prop for a fight ending via signature guillotine submission? How this fight even came to fruition is beyond me, but I still don’t like -500 and up territory even in a parlay. How many people got burned by Boetsch or Varner recently by putting -500 and up fighters in parlays? I think Mendes wins, but again, the prop Mendes wins by TKO, Sub or DQ is the way to go to make something off this fight.
I have a hard time picking 40 year-olds to win in the UFC not named Randy Couture. Nothing against Cung, but he is a small middleweight and Cote has the skill set to not be bullied by Le like he was against Tom Lawlor and the chin to withstand most of Le’s offense. Cote also has underrated striking, but I believe this fight will be more of Cote closing the distance on Le and trying to get the fight on the ground, where he can safely earn a decision win to ensure he sticks around for at least another fight.
Kim is built like a 185er, so Maia should not feel too out of place dropping to 170 here. Kim also fights like many of Maia’s past opponents, which would lead me to believe that Kim will spend the majority of this fight inside Maia’s guard. This fight is similar to Sass/Volkmann, where I thought Volkmann would end up winning a 30-27 snoozer across the board. Little did I know that Sass had other plans. In the spirit of great submissions, I like Maia to catch Kim, who despite appearances, is not as strong as the Munoz’s, Weidman’s, Herman’s, and Sonnen’s that Maia has faced before. Maia may be strong enough to control Kim from the bottom and finish the “Stun Gun” as a small underdog.
Ortiz at +250 territory is quite compelling. Forrest is a new father and something tells me this fight means a lot to him, unlike what we saw in his rematch with Shogun Rua, in which Forrest looked like he was running late for his return flight home. This will be Ortiz’s first and last fight as a UFC Hall of Famer, and he’s been talking like he’s ready to fight to the death, so look for him to try and find Griffin’s off button in the early going. As the two settle in, however, I expect Forrest to find his range and pick Ortiz apart like he did in the their second meeting. The odds should be closer by fight time, though not something to put in a parlay for my liking.
And here we are at last. I like Silva to win via keeping the fight standing and using the clinch effectively like he did against Yushin Okami when the distance is closed. I do not see Silva using many kicks at all, perhaps only when Chael is moving backwards (which Chael does not often do), and instead opting to box with Sonnen while using his footwork and hips (think matador vs bull) to keep Sonnen from getting this fight to the ground. We all know Sonnen’s gameplan by this point; his only chance here is if he can get this fight to the ground. Therefore, I will be looking at the prop Sonnen wins by decision, which should be near the +350 range, and is definitely hedge worthy, as the only way I see Sonnen winning is via 5rd decision.
Unfortunately, last Tuesday’s UFC on FUEL: Zombie vs. Poirier card all but completely derailed our recent run of luck with the Gambling Enabler (aside from the decision to purchase some Bud Light Platinums to celebrate another beautiful McKenzietine bet), but hopefully this weekend’s UFC 146 event, which features an all heavyweight main card for the first time in UFC history will help get things back on track. So without further adieu, may we present to you the tasty betting lines, brought to you courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our brilliant/equally insane advice below.
Unfortunately, last Tuesday’s UFC on FUEL: Zombie vs. Poirier card all but completely derailed our recent run of luck with the Gambling Enabler (aside from the decision to purchase some Bud Light Platinums to celebrate another beautiful McKenzietine bet), but hopefully this weekend’s UFC 146 event, which features an all heavyweight main card for the first time in UFC history will help get things back on track. So without further adieu, may we present to you the tasty betting lines, brought to you courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our brilliant/equally insane advice below.
The Main Event: Good God, has the world completely forgotten that Frank Mir is a former heavyweight champion for Christ’s sake? When we first came across those odds, not only did we double take, we nearly went into full on SpongeBob Squarepants bubble-blowing mode. Look, we all know that JDS has been damn near untouchable since nuking Fabricio Werdum in his octagon debut. We also know that Frank Mir’s chin leaves something to be desired, but at those odds, you’d think this was the squash match of the century, and that’s already been booked in the featherweight division. Mir is a submission savant with a pretty stellar standup game, and considering the experience advantage he’ll be bringing with him come Saturday, it would be nothing short of foolish to place at least a small bet on him at those ridiculous odds. Keep Junior in your parlay, because he has the kind of cement-filled hands that could end Mir’s night really, really early, but a side bet on Mir is common sense here.
The Good Dogs: We hate to be rude, but judging by their last performances, we’d say that Dave Herman and Antonio Silva are f’ing screwed. Plain and simple. Velasquez is too fast and dynamic for “Bigfoot,” and regardless of how Nelson has looked as of late, he is simply on another level than Herman, so scratch those from your list of viable options. The Rosario/Miocic line is really too close to warrant a big bet, and is one of those guaranteed slugfests that is best enjoyed with a cold beer, some nachos, and zero investment in the fighters at hand. Given his insane power, as well as Struve’s tendency to stand for way too long with people he has no business standing with, Lavar “Big” Johnson looks like a decent bet at +105. Then again, Pat Barry almost pulled off a keylock on him. Then again, Pat Barry almost pulled off a keylock on him. That is no typo; we want to let that notion settle in. Once Struve gets this to the ground, it will be over quicker than you can even kick yourself for betting on “Big” in the first place.
Really, the best underdog pick on this card is Paul Sass. Terrible nickname aside, he’s managed to score a couple impressive victories since jumping into the deep waters of the UFC’s lightweight division, mainly, his most recent heel hook win over TUF 12 finalist Michael Johnson. Volkmann has proven to be a force at 155, scoring five straight since dropping from welterweight, but none of those victories have really convinced us that he can do anything other than out-grapple his opponent for three rounds. Sass is a finisher, and Volkmann is anything but. This fight comes down to where you stand on the BJJ vs. wrestling debate, but we expect to see Sass pull off a second or third round sub and claim his place amongst the upper echelon of the lightweight division.
The Easy Bet: Diego Brandao. Although he saw some ups and downs in his glass plaque-earning effort over Dennis Bermudez at the TUF 14 Finale, he should easily be able to handle Darren Elkins, whose 3-1 octagon record looks a bit different when you realize that one of those victories came as a result of Duane Ludwig’s flimsy ankles, and another came as a result of the incompetence of MMA judges in his fight with Michihiro Omigawa. We feel compelled to mention the Miller/Dolloway match considering what’s at stake, but you might as well just throw your paycheck in the fire before you bet on either of those gentlemen.
Official CagePotato Parlay: dos Santos + Velasquez + Nelson + Brandao
Suggested stake for a $50 parlay
$25 on the parlay
$10 on Mir
$10 on Sass
$5 on Kingsbury (because UFC jitters are a thing)
