Frank Mir vs Mirko Crocop
Mir in his post 2006 string of fights has only lost too the two mega heavyweights in the game, Brock Lesnar, and equally humongous Shane Carwin. Other than that he has snapped off wins against “smaller” fighters and has never lost back to back. The consensus on this matchup is that the longer the fight goes on, Mir’s chances of winning start to fall off a cliff. Mirko on the other hand has looked rather rickety in his UFC fights EXCEPT against Pat Barry where he was stumbled a few times, but Crocop’s conditioning and wrestling ability saved him in that fight. Mir is a smart guy, he knows what to look out for, the high kicks, but CroCop has excellent right and left crosses. He throws them technically sound and I think could continue to be problems for Mir.
Betting against Mir in a back to back loss situation, with CroCop’s age and diminished speed, seems like a great edge to take Mir. You can see on the odds panel on the right side >>>> that 78% are picking Mir at BetUS. I’ve been bit picking the older fighter. Mir will not be out matched on the strength column in this fight and that is pretty much where he has had his problems. The fight with Brandon Vera does not count. He came back to the UFC an out of shape shlub for that one. Mir was in excellent shape against Kongo and his other recent fights.
Ryan Bader vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Bader seems like he is too fast and too dangerous pretty much everywhere. I’m going with Bader in this match. Seems only 54% are picking Bader here at BetUS.
Matt Serra vs Chris Lytle
These two guys almost never get finished. You can almost bet that this will goto a decision. 5Dimes has those type of bets. In their last match, Serra won a razor close decision, some think it was Lytle, I didn’t. I saw it as a Serra win as was the The Ultimate Fight match which resurrected both their careers in the new UFC 2.0 era. The veterans show series was one of my favorites btw. As far as punching power goes they both have it. Based on technical skills Serra is probably the more difficult fighter to hit due to his compact size. Lytle swings wildly which is a benefit for Serra who can slide inside get a leg trip takedown and work his top game which isn’t as menacing as other fighters. The way Lytle needs to beat Serra is make him a target. Look at what GSP did. He put him in a corner so he could hit him. Like I said before Serra is hard to hit due to his size, but his ability to get up off the ground is not that amazing either. Lytle has actually shown better jiu-jitsu in the octagon over the years, but Serra is surely not going to be submitted, nor is Lytle. This leaves either a TKO or a decision which is why I think this one is going to the cards. I like both of these fighter’s personalities and can’t really decide, but you have to think Lytle here won’t lose 3 straight and is the current odds on favorite. I’m going to step out on a limb and say Serra will win because he is funnier.
Sean Sherk vs Evan Dunham
I’ve picked Dunham early on in upsets over Tyson Griffin and elsewhere. I don’t see any spot where Sherk wins this fight other than take downs. If this fight becomes one where Dunham can’t get a submission, can’t hit Sherk at all, and just gets taken down, then Dunham will lose. However, that is a lot of IFs. I see Dunham winning this one and the odds makers seem to agree. However, the majority of bettors at BetUS are taking Sherk >>>>>>.
Melvin Guillard vs Jeremy Stephens
This fight is split right down the middle its almost a pick em. If Melvin wasn’t training at Greg Jackson’s I would be taking Jeremy Stephens here. However, Guillard has always possessed an incredible potential, however, his ground skills and cardio have been two reasons for him not accelerating to a title shot. Stephens has been up and down, mostly up, but never able to breakthrough. My gut instinct is that Guillard will win this fight. However, I’m not going to pick a winner here and will sit back and just enjoy the match because its too close to call.
CB Dollaway vs Joe Doerkson
I see CB Dollaway and Doerkson’s last UFC opponent, Tom Lawlor, as very similar. Good wrestlers, decent ground, weird standup. Doerkson sort of pulled off a miracle in his last fight, but this is the way he fights. Starts off slow, drains the other guy, and then submits his opponent. This has been the formula for years. I can’t think its going to happen again, its just my feeling, despite the similarities between Dollaway and Lawlor (not to mention Lawlor beat Dolloway – expect a rematch of these two if Doerksen wins).
94% of bettors on BetUS are picking Doerksen here in the underdog role and I also see value here picking “El Dirte.”
Matt Mitrione vs Joey Beltran
Beltran has been doing this a lot longer than Mitrione, but Matt has more power. Beltran is going to be Mitrione’s first real MMA test as Mitrione has only fought two MMA newbies in Kimbo and Jones. However, in those two fights Mitrione showed improved skills. Lets not forget Mitrione’s chin on the TUF show was pretty damn impressive something Beltran will likely test here. I’m kind of surprised to see Beltran as an underdog here as this fight if anything should be even. Despite that I think the power, size, and chin will be too much for The Mexicutioner to overcome.
The Prelim Card
Thiago Tavares vs Pat Audinwood
Steve Lopez vs Waylon Lowe
TJ Grant vs Julio Paulino
Mark Hunt vs Sean McCorkle – the most interesting prelim match with K-1 and Dream fighter, maybe over the hill, Mark Hunt entering the octagon for the first time. I like Mark Hunt to win here, in the return to “UFC 5ish” match.