We all like FightMetric.
When there’s a-doin’s a-transpirin’ in a close fight, it’s the first place we’re heading on our second screens. At a glance, you can see who landed more strikes, more significant strikes, who went for more subs, whose takedowns…
We all like FightMetric.
When there’s a-doin’s a-transpirin’ in a close fight, it’s the first place we’re heading on our second screens. At a glance, you can see who landed more strikes, more significant strikes, who went for more subs, whose takedowns were on point.
Tonight’s main event, a matchup of two of the best grapplers in MMA in Jake Shields and Demian Maia, told a story in the stats just as it did in the cage.
Let’s take a look.
Striking
Demian Maia: 24 of 75 (32%) significant, 98 of 160 total
Jake Shields: 35 of 112 (31%) significant, 97 of 188 total
As is reflected in the numbers, even when he lost rounds Shields was more active with his striking. He was almost constant in his shots from guard and half-guard early on, and continually touched Maia with light strikes from all positions throughout the night. He probably pulled away in the fifth as a result of his striking on the feet as well.
Maia, on the other hand, was grossly less active as a result of spending much of the night against the cage or on his back. When he won rounds, he did it through positional dominance and aggression, not strikes.
In the end that wasn’t enough.
Takedowns
Demian Maia: 3 of 7 (43%)
Jake Shields: 1 of 12 (8%)
Interestingly, it was Maia who had more success in the takedown department, something many would have said was an advantage for Shields coming in given his background in wrestling. His unorthodox trips and throws, as they often have against wrestlers, proved fairly successful when he could get in range to use them.
The takedown success coupled with the number of times he managed to keep Shields at bay in his own right seemed like it might have been enough to steal the win, but the judges ignored the stats and went against the hometown hero.
The area that the MMA world was most looking forward to when this fight was announced definitely didn’t disappoint, as the two traded positions and created scrambles for much of the night.
At the end of the day it was Shields with his more aggressive approach and constant thrust to pass guard that seized the day. He even threw in a crazy reversal that allowed him to escape Maia having his back in the third round, which looked like it badly troubled the BJJ ace.
If Maia won the takedown battle and Shields won the striking, it was the grappling stats that decided the fight. The decision might be controversial to some, but it’s definitely supported by FightMetric.
Handling the play-by-play for the FOX Sports 1 main card is Seth Falvo, who will be stacking live results and his own deep thoughts after the jump beginning at 7 p.m. ET. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and please toss your own thoughts into the comments section.
(“Alright homey, let’s give these fans what they paid for — 25 minutes of evenly-matched grappling stalemates.” / Photo via Getty)
Handling the play-by-play for the FOX Sports 1 main card is Seth Falvo, who will be stacking live results and his own deep thoughts after the jump beginning at 7 p.m. ET. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and please toss your own thoughts into the comments section.
Preliminary card results Igor Araujo def. Ildemar Alcantara by unanimous decision
Yan Cabral def. David Mitchell by unanimous decision
Chris Cariaso def. Iliarde Santos by TKO, 4:31 Round Two
Alan Patrick def. Garett Whiteley by TKO, 3:45 Round One
Please stand by…
Good evening everyone – pleasure for me to be bringing you live results. I hope you didn’t buy into that “deep thoughts” nonsense that Ben tried to sell you on. Honestly, if I make it through this with only one semi-related GIF, only one obscure professional wrestling reference, and only five hundred typos, I’ll consider this liveblog a smashing success.
AND WE ARE LIVE!!!
I happen to be watching the fights this evening from the classiest place imaginable. Well, classiest place that will allow me to furiously tap at a keyboard and swear at a television, that is (I’m at a suburban Buffalo Wild Wings outside of New Orleans. Judge me, bro). KenFlo’s hair looks magnificent, there’s an Ultimate Fighter preview on tv, and all is right in the world. Alright, let’s do this:
Raphael Assuncao vs. T.J. Dillashaw
Round One: Nice leg kick from Raphael to start us of. Dillashaw is swinging for the fences early, but not really connecting. They’re feeling each other out, throwing leg kicks that occasionally land. Dillashaw with a nice takedown, but Assuncao is soon back to his feet. Head kick from Dillashaw gets caught by Assuncao, but Dillashaw escapes. There’s a scramble, and Dillashaw not has Assuncao’s back! He’s working for a standing rear-naked choke, and Assuncao is now on the mat. He’s got room to breathe though. Dillashaw gives up on the choke attempt, and Assuncao manages to escape. They’re back on their feet now. Dillashaw attempts a front kick as the round comes to an end.
Round Two: They touch gloves, and Assuncao immediately throws a leg kick. Another one lands for Assuncao. He now attempts a head kick, but it misses. Dillashaw now does the same thing. Dillashaw throws a body kick, and Assuncao catches it, landing a nice straight. Dillashaw lands another takedown, pinning Assuncao against the cage. They’re back to their feet, and Dillashaw throws another head kick. Assuncao trips, then attempts a takedown that is stuffed by Dillashaw. Once again, Dillashaw has Assuncao’s back, but Assuncao escapes and we’re back to the feet. Lots of blood now, but I can’t tell who is bleeding.
Um, is this a mid-round commercial break? Dafuq?
Round Three: We’re back, and both guys are feeling each other out with the occasional leg kick. So far, I got Dillashaw winning both rounds…you know, in case you care to trust the guy who just got confused by a commercial break. Assuncao catches another kick, and works for another takedown that Dillashaw stuffs immediately. Dillashaw appears to be cut above his right eye. Two minutes left in this one. Assuncao is landing some nice counter strikes, but unless he gets the KO, I think it’ll be too little too late. One minute left now, and Assuncao misses with a kick. Assuncao now has Dillashaw clinched up against the cage, but Dillashaw escapes. This fight comes to an end, and I have Dillashaw taking it, 29-28. Let’s see if the refs agree…
Only one does. Raphael Assuncao def. T.J. Dillashaw by split decision.
Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Pierce
Round One:Pierce immediately rushes Palhares, and immediately regrets his decision by nearly getting caught in a heel hook. He escapes, and proceeds to get caught in a heel hook that actually ends the fight.
Official Result: Rousimar Palhares def. Mike Pierce via submission (heel hook), 0:31 of Round One. Bold prediction [/sarcasm]: This will be the submission of the night.
We’ve now got Chael Sonnen and Brian Stann doing their best to convince us that Thiago Silva vs. Matt Hamill will be worth watching. That’s neat, I guess…
That segment is wisely followed up by a UFC 166 preview.
Fabio Maldonado vs. Joey Beltran
Round One: They touch gloves, and Beltran is throwing combinations early and often. He now has Fabio clinched against the cage, and…ouch, that’s gotta hurt. Is it me, or is Maldonado like, reaaalllllyyyy prone to nut shots? Okay, we’re back. Beltran is throwing, but Maldonado is doing a good job avoiding his punches. They clinch against the cage again, and Beltran looks for a standing guillotine. Maldonado with a few nice body shots, and Beltran is now incorporating a wall-and-stall heavy offense, with a few knees and elbows sprinkled in . Beltran swings for the fences, but Maldonado avoids his haymakers. He can’t escape from the cage though. Beltran lands a nice straight right, and Fabio seems dazed. The round ends with Maldonado taunting Beltran, who I think was busy enough to take the round.
Round Two: Maldonado begins the round with a double thumbs-up. I approve. Beltran is throwing some heavy strikes, but Maldonado is doing a nice job avoiding and countering. Beltran rushes Maldonado against the cage, and both men are now letting their hands go. Beltran clinches Maldonado against the cage, and lands a really nice knee. Yamasaki separates them, as Maldonado appears to have dropped his mouth guard. Beltran attempts to get Fabio back against the cage, but Maldonado gets away. This fight now has both men clinching in the center of the cage, throwing body shots. They separate, with Beltran blitzing Maldonado in an attempt to get his back against the cage, as this round comes to an end. Good fight.
Round Three: We’ve got more combinations, more Beltran clinching against the cage, a foul (this time Beltran is on the business end), blood, more clinching, some nice knees from Beltran, and these two hug it out at the end of the fight. What can I say, I decided to be efficient this round.
Fabio Maldonado def. Joey Beltran via split decision.
Thiago Silva vs. Matt Hamill
I do not feel good about this…
Round One: Hamill has officially lasted longer than Mike Pierce did…so, you know, there’s that. Leg kick Hamill. And another, that Silva counters with a huge right hand. Leg kick Silva. Hamill with a nice body shot there. Two minutes left in the round, with Silva missing with a vicious haymaker. Hamill is doing a good job avoiding Silva’s heavier shopts, but Silva has had success with leg kicks throughout the round. Much closer first round than I was anticipating.
Round Two: Hamill catches Silva early, but Silva recovers. Hamill is keeping his hands dangerously low, as Silva is still catching Hamill with leg kicks. Some awkward, slow combinations from Hamill…that Silva barely misses. My this fight is sad. Silva now has Hamill’s back and is throwing punches, but Hamill escapes. The fight returns to a slow, sloppy kickboxing match, until Hamill takes Silva’s back against the cage. Hamill now has Silva on the ground, but can’t finish the fight before this round mercifully comes to an end.
Round Three: You know what? Screw liveblogging this fight. Play us off, wrestler GIF.
Thiago Silva def. Matt Hamill via unanimous decision.
Erick Silva vs. Dong-Hyun Kim
Whoa, technical difficulties here! Don’t get too excited though, because I’m back. Anyways, Kim’s grinding style works well in neutralizing Silva for most of the fight, and then Kim connects with a HUGE overhand right left, knocking Silva out cold. Awesome victory for Kim!
Dong-Hyun Kim def. Erick Silva via KO, 3:01 Round Two
Main event time!
Demian Maia vs. Jake Shields
Round One: No glove touch here, as Shields opens up with some leg kicks. Maia shoots for a takedown, and now has Shields against the cage looking for the takedown. He eventually gets it, and is in Shields’ guard. Maia looks to transition, but Shields’ butterfly guard is strong, and is controlling Maia’s hips well. Shields gets to his feet, and works for a takedown of his own now. Maia reverses, and lands another takedown. Shields gets up, but gives Maia his back in the process. Shields escapes, and gets Maia down. Maia has shields in his half guard, and gains full guard as Shields attempts to pass to side control. Shields attempts to pass guard, but Maia isn’t having it. Shields throws a few punches now, as Maia is now throwing punches from the bottom. The round ends with Shields in Maia’s guard.
Round Two: Shields opens the round with a few kicks, and then shoots for a takedown. Maia stuffs it, and looks for a takedown of his own now. Shields counters that takedown, and is in Maia’s half guard against the cage. Maia has full guard now. Shields is working for elbows, as Maia looks for a way back to his feet. Shields is back in Maia’s half guard, as Maia looks for a triangle. Shields avoids it, as Maia uses the butterfly guard to try to get a little space. Shields is content to control space – not exactly a bad strategy when you’re grappling against a guy like Maia. To Maia’s credit, he’s been looking for submissions and passes for the entire round, as this one comes to an end.
Round Three: Shields with another leg kick, and throws a head kick as well. Maia with a straight left, and misses with another one. Body shot Maia. Big left from Maia, as Shields decides he’s done pretending to be a kickboxer and shoots for a takedown. Maia reverses it, and now has Shields against the cage. Shields counters the takedown nicely, and now they’re back on the feet. Maia rocks Shields, and has Shields’ back. He gets the takedown, and has Shields’ back. AWESOME reversal from Shields, and he’s in Maia’s guard. Both guys are punching each other from Maia’s guard, as Shields now passes to Maia’s half-guiard. Maia throwing some ineffective punches from the bottom, as Shields begins to throw a few hammerfists. Shields throws a few elbows, as this round comes to an end.
Round Four: They feel each other out, and Shields rushes in for a double-leg takedown. Shields has Maia against the cage, but Maia reverses, and throws a knee against the cage. Shields reverses position now, and the ref has seen enough. He separates them, and Shields immediately shoots for a single leg. He’s unable to get it, and looks frustrated. He shoots for another, and Maia stuffs it. Maia is in Shields’ guard, with just under two minutes to go. Maia with some body shots, and we’ve got yet another stand-up. Eh, I’ve seen more than enough sloppy kickboxing from Silva/Hamill, but it’s not the worst stand-up I’ve seen. Maia gets the better of the exchanges as this round comes to an end. Both guys look exhausted.
Round Five: It’s been a close fight, as Shields is working his jab early and often to start things off. Maia is throwing some heavy shots, but he’s coming up short with most of them. Shields shoots for a takedown, but Maia stuffs it. Shields with a kick. Shields shoots for another takedown, but Maia stays on his feet. Maia now has Shields against the cage, but Shields escapes, and we’re treated to more grapplers impersonating kickboxers. Delightful. Maia lands a nice left hand, and Shields lands a kick. Shields shoots for another takedown, but Maia sprawls. Shields has Maia against the cage, but Maia works for a standing kimura. The ref separates them with less than thirty seconds to go. Maia is swinging for the fences, but Shields manages to survive until the end of the fight.
Tough call on who won this one…
The official decision is in: Jake Shields def. Demian Maia via split decision.
Eh, my parlay paid off, so I’m pretty excited. Interesting night of fights. We’ll have plenty to discuss tomorrow.
Since dropping to 170 pounds in 2012, Demian Maia has quickly ascended to the top of the welterweight division. Jake Shields, despite finding himself back in the win column, has been struggling to remain relevant ever since his loss to Georges St-…
Since dropping to 170 pounds in 2012, Demian Maia has quickly ascended to the top of the welterweight division. Jake Shields, despite finding himself back in the win column, has been struggling to remain relevant ever since his loss to Georges St-Pierre back in 2011.
Both fighters are looking to use each other as a springboard towards a title shot.
Also on the card? A compelling bout between welterweight grapplers Dong-Hyun Kim and Erick Silva, a light-heavyweight clash between Thiago Silva and Matt Hamill, and a huge match between a pair of bantamweight contenders in Raphael Assuncao and TJ Dillashaw.
Main Card (Fox Sports 1)
Demian Maia vs. Jake Shields Erick Silva vs. Dong-Hyun Kim Thiago Silva vs. Matt Hamill Fabio Maldonado vs. Joey Beltran Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Pierce Raphael Assuncao vs. TJ Dillashaw
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Ildemar Alcantara vs. Igor Araujo Yan Cabral vs. Dave Mitchell Illiarde Santos vs. Chris Cariaso Alan Patrick vs. Garrett Whitely
The skills of Demian Maia and Jake Shields are underappreciated. In a sense, their grappling and submission mastery are like instrumental jazz music; you either get it or you don’t. Unfortunately, many fans of the sport don’t get it and thu…
The skills of Demian Maia and Jake Shields are underappreciated. In a sense, their grappling and submission mastery are like instrumental jazz music; you either get it or you don’t. Unfortunately, many fans of the sport don’t get it and thus neither man receives the credit they deserve for long successful careers.
Maia and Shields are a combined 46-10-1 in their careers with a total of 19 victories by submission. Does that mean someone is tapping out on Wednesday night at UFC Fight Night 29 in Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil? More than likely not.
Submitting a Submission Master
Most submissions specialist on Maia’s and Shields’ level are nearly impossible to submit. True to this concept, neither Shields or Maia have ever lost a fight this way. As good as both men are at locking in maneuvers to make their opponent say “uncle,” it isn’t likely either fallsvictim to a trap.
What happens if we’re “treated” to five rounds of mat chess? Even the most accepting grappling fan may get a little sleepy as Shields and Maia posture on the canvas. Unfortunately, this is probably the type of fight we’re going to see.
I have a ton of respect for Maia and Shields, but sometimes a matchup of two good fighters doesn’t produce an exciting fight. This will one of those bouts. Though I’m obviously not optimistic, I’m hoping for one or both men to take an alternative approach.
Settling the Grappling Stalemate With Their Fists
At some point, Maia and/or Shields could realize they have no chance to gain a clear advantage over the other on the ground. If this happens, fans would rejoice at the sight of the men going to Plan B, aka a standup battle.
This isn’t either man’s forte as both men have scored just three wins by KO in their career.
The last time Maia won by TKO was in July 2012, but there is a caveat to that stoppage. His opponent Dong Hyun Kim was stopped because of a rib injury. A similar occurrence happened in May 2007 when Maia beat Ryan Stout when the latter suffered a shoulder injury.
In fact, the only time Maia has ever stopped an opponent with a strike came way back in his first recorded professional fight in 2001. Maia scored a technical knockout win over a fighter named Raul Sosa, who according to Sherdog.com, has never fought again.
As for Shields’ striking resume, it isn’t much better. However, at least all three of his KO/TKO wins are legitimate. He hasn’t finished an opponent with strikes since 2007, but he does have aggressive ground-and-pound if he gains top position.
If somehow this bout comes down to striking, Shields will have the advantage.
Who Wins?
Even though this fight is more apt to stay grounded—in more ways than one—Shields’ ability to obtain top position will resonate with the judges. While both men are specialists, Maia is more of a one-trick pony. Shields will win a grapple fest that is best suited for purest of the discipline.
Apparently, UFC Undisputed 3 the video game agrees with me.
This simulation predicts Shields will win the bout as well. You can watch the real bout Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
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While few UFC welterweights can match the grappling prowess of Jake Shields, no 170-pounder has managed to contest the avant-garde ground fighting chops of the surging Demian Maia.
The fourth-ranked Maia has reeled off three straight impressive wins si…
While few UFC welterweights can match the grappling prowess of Jake Shields, no 170-pounder has managed to contest the avant-garde ground fighting chops of the surging Demian Maia.
The fourth-ranked Maia has reeled off three straight impressive wins since making the descent to 170, a fruitful decision he made following his loss to Chris Weidman in early 2012.
Along the way, the ADCC champ [2007] quickly disposed of Dong Hyun Kim before easily outgrappling former collegiate wrestlers Rick Story and Jon Fitch.
Despite the obvious risks, a confident and always game Shields plans on establishing his first UFC winning streak by beating Maia at his own game in their main-event bout at UFC Fight Night 29.
In an interview last week with Bleacher Report’s Duane Finley, Shields spoke openly about his game plan in his first main-event appearance since getting TKO’d by Jake Ellenberger roughly two years ago.
I think it’s a great stylistic fight. We are two of the best Jiu-Jitsu guys out there and I think we are both going to want to use those skills in this fight. I’m going to go out there and try to take him down and submit him, and I expect the same from him. I’m hoping for some great Jiu-Jitsu exchanges, but I’m going to be prepared in the stand-up game as well. I’m ready for all-out war.
It may prove unpopular among fans, but if Shields plans on leaving Brazil victorious, the 34-year-old must utilize his well-rounded grappling arsenal to keep his showdown with Maia standing.
Shields proved in his title bout with Georges St-Pierre at UFC 129 that he can hold his own in the kickboxing department. In fact, he landed 78 significant strikes to St-Pierre’s 85 and surprisingly outstruck the longtime champ, 96-92.
St-Pierre, however, essentially earned a unanimous decision in the bout on the strength of his superior wrestling, scoring on two of three takedown attempts and stuffing each of Shields’ six shots.
And although he gave up takedowns against Ed Herman, YoshihiroAkiyama and Jason Miller, Shields, a former collegiate wrestler, explained why he’s confident against top-flight grapplers like Maia.
I’m not going to say what happened to Fitch can’t happen with me because a guy at Maia’s level can make anything happen. I think Fitch is a great opponent and a good grappler so watching Maia dominate him like that was very impressive. But it’s something I’m very prepared for. I think my Jiu-Jitsu is a lot better than Fitch’s and I mix my wrestling with it. Those are the skills I bring to this fight and I’m super-excited because Maia’s last three fights at 170, he looked amazing in all of them. That makes this fight that much more exciting for me.
With submission wins over Robbie Lawler, Mike Pyle and Nick Thompson, Shields, the creator of American Jiu-Jitsu [a blend of wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu] obviously possesses a venomous ground game.
In wins over Dan Henderson and Martin Kampmann, Shields also flashed his gift for blending strikes with shots, scoring four takedowns apiece in back-to-back wins.
And akin to Maia, Shields showed extraordinary top control in workmanlike wins over “Hendo” and “The Hitman.”
But if he obliges Maia by engaging in a grapplefest, Shields, an ADCC bronze medalist [2005], could potentially suffer the first submission setback of his 15-year career.
Shields certainly owns one of the best grappling repertoires in the UFC, and the Cesar Gracie standout knows how to employ it. Truth be told, though, Maia is both an artist and a magician on the mat, and at this point, no one in the UFC can play his game better.
You know how broken-down, piece-of-shit houses are often advertised as “handyman’s specials“? Well, tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night 29 event in Barueri is a “grappler’s wet dream,” headlined by two welterweights known for bringing it to the mat and keeping it there for AS LONG AS IT TAKES!!! (Just trying to stay positive here, guys.) Non-Baruerians can watch the action on FOX Sports 1, and we’ll be livebogging the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.
To keep you current on all the important themes surrounding “Maia vs. Shields,” it’s time for CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Seth Falvo to engage in some spirited debate. So how will the main event play out? What’s the best way to make money off the fights? Which fighter on the card is talented enough to be a future Bellator tournament semi-finalist? And which funny GIF will show up at the end of this post? Read on, and please toss your own opinions in the comments section.
Will Demian Maia‘s main event fight against Jake Shields go any differently than his last win against Jon Fitch? And are you already sold on Maia as a future welterweight title contender?
BG: Not all boring grapplers are the same. There can be subtle differences between boring grapplers. Jon Fitch is a guy whose single-minded focus is to take you down and lay on you until the fight ends. Jake Shields will take you down and try to submit you first, and if that’s not working out, then he’ll lay on you until the fight ends.
Here’s another difference — Fitch seems to lose a couple belt-ranks when his opponent manages to scramble onto his back. (Maia and BJ Penn were both able to hang out in back control for long stretches against Fitch, who defended himself well against rear-naked chokes, but was otherwise stuck in position.) Shields tends to be a little more active on the mat than Fitch both offensively and defensively, and unlike Fitch, Jake Shields has never been submitted in his entire career.
I see two possible outcomes here: 1) Maia and Shields recognize each other’s grappling abilities, and proceed to put on the sloppiest, stupidest kickboxing match in recent UFC history. 2) Shields tries to play jiu-jitsu with Maia, and it doesn’t work out too well for him. Either way, I’ve got the Brazilian by decision. Now would that firmly establish Maia as a title threat? Maybe not. Keep in mind that all of Maia’s opponents during his UFC welterweight run have been wrestlers. Give him the winner of UFC 167’s Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald bout after this one, and we’ll see how he handles himself in the deep end of the pool, against guys with the power to turn him upside-down.
SF: Glad to see I’m not the only person around here who has drank more than enough of the Demian Maia Kool-Aid; I’m already sold on him as a legitimate contender. But are we seriously writing off Jake Shields this easily?
I’m not about to write that Jake Shields has great striking or anything, but for a one-dimensional grappler, his Muay Thai is better than it has any business being. Yeah, I know — that’s like writing that The Wrestling Boot Band weren’t that terrible or that Pepsi Jazz was sort-of drinkable — but I’m not ready to say the same thing about Maia. Point being, if this fight stays on the feet, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Jake Shields walk away victorious. And, who knows, Jake may even violate a CagePotato Ban and win by bringing back the old Jake Shields tomorrow night. Anything can happen in a cage fight, bro.
Looking at the gambling odds for this event, what’s the single smartest wager you could make?
You know how broken-down, piece-of-shit houses are often advertised as “handyman’s specials“? Well, tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night 29 event in Barueri is a “grappler’s wet dream,” headlined by two welterweights known for bringing it to the mat and keeping it there for AS LONG AS IT TAKES!!! (Just trying to stay positive here, guys.) Non-Baruerians can watch the action on FOX Sports 1, and we’ll be livebogging the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.
To keep you current on all the important themes surrounding “Maia vs. Shields,” it’s time for CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Seth Falvo to engage in some spirited debate. So how will the main event play out? What’s the best way to make money off the fights? Which fighter on the card is talented enough to be a future Bellator tournament semi-finalist? And which funny GIF will show up at the end of this post? Read on, and please toss your own opinions in the comments section.
Will Demian Maia‘s main event fight against Jake Shields go any differently than his last win against Jon Fitch? And are you already sold on Maia as a future welterweight title contender?
BG: Not all boring grapplers are the same. There can be subtle differences between boring grapplers. Jon Fitch is a guy whose single-minded focus is to take you down and lay on you until the fight ends. Jake Shields will take you down and try to submit you first, and if that’s not working out, then he’ll lay on you until the fight ends.
Here’s another difference — Fitch seems to lose a couple belt-ranks when his opponent manages to scramble onto his back. (Maia and BJ Penn were both able to hang out in back control for long stretches against Fitch, who defended himself well against rear-naked chokes, but was otherwise stuck in position.) Shields tends to be a little more active on the mat than Fitch both offensively and defensively, and unlike Fitch, Jake Shields has never been submitted in his entire career.
I see two possible outcomes here: 1) Maia and Shields recognize each other’s grappling abilities, and proceed to put on the sloppiest, stupidest kickboxing match in recent UFC history. 2) Shields tries to play jiu-jitsu with Maia, and it doesn’t work out too well for him. Either way, I’ve got the Brazilian by decision. Now would that firmly establish Maia as a title threat? Maybe not. Keep in mind that all of Maia’s opponents during his UFC welterweight run have been wrestlers. Give him the winner of UFC 167’s Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald bout after this one, and we’ll see how he handles himself in the deep end of the pool, against guys with the power to turn him upside-down.
SF: Glad to see I’m not the only person around here who has drank more than enough of the Demian Maia Kool-Aid; I’m already sold on him as a legitimate contender. But are we seriously writing off Jake Shields this easily?
I’m not about to write that Jake Shields has great striking or anything, but for a one-dimensional grappler, his Muay Thai is better than it has any business being. Yeah, I know — that’s like writing that The Wrestling Boot Band weren’t that terrible or that Pepsi Jazz was sort-of drinkable — but I’m not ready to say the same thing about Maia. Point being, if this fight stays on the feet, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Jake Shields walk away victorious. And, who knows, Jake may even violate a CagePotato Ban and win by bringing back the old Jake Shields tomorrow night. Anything can happen in a cage fight, bro.
Looking at the gambling odds for this event, what’s the single smartest wager you could make?
BG: Smartest wager? Buddy, you’re talking to the wrong guy. I’m a sucker for ridiculous underdogs, and my lifetime success rate is currently hovering right above 0%. So before we get into “smart” bets, let me just point out that Dong Hyun Kim is a +220 underdog against Erick Silva, who is a strong favorite here because he’s handsome, I guess? Seriously, DHK wrestle-fuck all day.
Now, if you’re looking for a bet that’s fiscally sound but feels risky enough to give you that adrenaline rush of actual, degenerate gambling, I like to go with the old two-fight parlay: Pick two favorites who you feel comfortable with, and stack ‘em together. Give me TJ Dillashaw from the currently-unstoppable Team Alpha Male crew, who’s sitting at -225 against Raphael Assuncao, and the aforementioned Demian Maia, who’s listed around -270. A $10 parlay bet at BetUS returns $9.23 in profit if they both win — damn-near even money for a damn-near sure thing.
SF: What lovely, practical advice you’ve just given out, Ben. Now, if you’re done being intelligent and placing sensible bets, your majesty, I have a mortgage payment that I’d like to throw away on grown men punching each other.
Jake Shields is just underrated enough to be an attractive option at +210, so I’ll gladly be a total contrarian asshole and include him in my parlay, thank you very much. The other guy in my parlay? Allan freakin’ Patrick. I’ve never seen him fight before, but he’s undefeated, he’s Brazilian, and his opponent can best be described as “Some Guy, whatever, fuck you.” All of this makes him the perfect, yet incredibly rare combination of “totally safe bet” and “complete shot in the dark.” The $32.92 that my ten bucks would make off of this parlay certainly helps his case, too. Hell, something tells me that I’d have a crippling gambling addiction if I didn’t place my next few paychecks on this…
Which fighter is most likely to show up in Bellator after this event?
SF: My gut instinct is to take the easy route, pick Thiago Silva, and throw in a semi-related GIF at some point, as is tradition. I’m sure if I spent some time researching statistics or finding out if Facebook preliminaries are still a thing, I’d have a different opinion. But I didn’t earn the reputation of “talentless hack” by doing that stuff, and if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, so Thiago Silva it is
Silva is dangerously deep into Fitch/Okami territory. He’s talented enough to be a perennial “Top 10″ guy, but not enough to actually hold a belt — and he comes with a much heftier price tag than the other gatekeepers on the roster. Sure, his fan-friendly style would be an incentive to keep him around, if it weren’t for how disturbingly often the guy shoots himself in the foot (figuratively speaking [for now]). Another loss/failed drug test for Thiago Silva, and he may very well find himself under the bright lights of Viacom MMA.
BG: You’re assuming that Thiago Silva will lose to Matt Hamill, a guy with very little to offer in the year 2013, who unwisely came out of a very wise retirement and who hasn’t looked impressive since he KO’d Mark Munoz four and a half years ago. I say Silva wins that fight, so screw you.
Let’s be real: Fabio Maldonado vs. Joey Beltran will decide the unofficial winner of the Season Nine Bellator Light-Heavyweight Tournament. It’s perfect. They’re both sluggers with losing records in the UFC. You’ve heard of them, but you don’t particularly care about them. One of them is a disgraced steroid cheat. And Bellator’s light-heavyweight division is even shallower than the rest of their shallow divisions, so they could use the warm bodies.
Maldonado vs. Beltran is a classic matchup of a technical boxer vs. a let-me-bang-bro brawler, and I see “The Mexicutioner” losing a unanimous decision after being picked apart over three rounds. He will be fired by the UFC on Monday morning, and signed by Bellator on Wednesday. He will eventually be TKO’d by Attila Vegh, then test positive for steroids again and retire for three months before showing up in XARM. Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election, but it’s a close one. There’s a recount, and hostilities between the two major U.S. political parties grow even deeper and more overt. A civil war breaks out. The nuclear silos in Iowa self-destruct. Eventually, what’s left of the United States falls under the control of a shadowy dictator known only as “The Beekeeper.” Dana White dies peacefully in his sleep at the age of 112.
Thiago Silva vs. Matt Hamill…is this matchup depressing to anybody else, or is it just me?
SF: That GIF I owe you guys? Yeah, I figured I’d sit on it until I was asked a question that made me feel completely empty inside. So, you know…
BG: Basically, we’ve got a stoner and a deaf retiree trying to beat the shit out of each other in front of a bunch of unwashed foreigners. I know it sounds like the premise of a new Seth MacFarlane sitcom, but this is an actual UFC main card fight. Play us off, Morgan…
The skills of 
