(Word has it JDS hits so hard that Frank Mir fainted shortly after this photo was snapped.)
Just a reminder, Potato Nation, that the weigh-ins for tomorrow’s UFC 146 card are going down tonight starting at 7 p.m. ET. Because we “love” you the way a man “loves” the prostitute he just kicked out of his hotel room, we’ll be hosting a live stream of the event below. At least one of us will be trolling the comment section and looking for a fight, so be sure to join us if you’re into that sort of thing.
All of these questions will be answered, via a few intense staredowns, in just a few short hours.
(Word has it JDS hits so hard that Frank Mir fainted shortly after this photo was snapped.)
Just a reminder, Potato Nation, that the weigh-ins for tomorrow’s UFC 146 card are going down tonight starting at 7 p.m. ET. Because we “love” you the way a man “loves” the prostitute he just kicked out of his hotel room, we’ll be hosting a live stream of the event below. At least one of us will be trolling the comment section and looking for a fight, so be sure to join us if you’re into that sort of thing.
Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson.
Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman
One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson has lost three out of his last four with two of those losses coming to the fighters competing for the championship in the night’s headliner. Herman has split his two UFC fights with his loss coming to Stefan Struve, who is also competing on Saturday night’s card.
Nelson’s last several fights have mainly taken place on the feet and his main accomplishment has been proving that he is almost impossible to knock out. He took punches from Junior Dos Santos that no one else has been able to absorb. But a good chin isn’t enough to win fights and losing three out of four isn’t the way to stay in the UFC. Nelson will be fighting for his UFC life on Saturday night and fortunately for him, he will be facing a fighter he is capable of defeating. Expect Nelson to attempt to show the full range of his game on Saturday night as he should have the advantage wherever the fight takes place. Herman will have the height advantage but that’s nothing new for Nelson who will close the distance and throw power punches. Once on the inside, Nelson should look to put Herman on his back and work his submission game. Nelson is excellent from the top position and has the skill set to finish this fight early.
Herman will be looking to improve on his previous performance when he was stopped by Stefan Struve after an uninspiring eight minutes in the octagon. He looked sluggish against Struve and spent most of the fight standing still in front of his opponent eventually paying for his lack of movement by being dropped with an uppercut and finished with ground and pound. Herman is a much better fighter than he showed that night and he should be looking to prove that against Nelson. A win against Nelson would put him back on the right track while a loss would set him back significantly. He will look to keep the fight standing as he won’t want to grapple with his more accomplished opponent. Look for him to use his reach advantage and keep Nelson on the outside with jabs and kicks. If Nelson looks to close the distance, expect Herman to clinch and use his knees. The task is a difficult one but if Herman is focused, he can pull off the upset.
Nelson is favored in this fight at -225 with Herman the underdog at +185. Nelson should be able to pull out a win by outstriking Herman, putting him on his back and looking for submissions. Herman’s best hope is to keep Nelson on the outside and pick him apart with strikes. Unfortunately for Herman, Nelson is almost impossible to knock out so if he wants a victory, he’s going to have to earn it by winning a decision.
Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic
In a battle of undefeated heavyweights, former Strikeforce fighter Shane Del Rosario makes his UFC debut against Stipe Miocic who has two wins in the UFC over Joey Beltran and Philip De Fries. Despite being undefeated thus far in their careers, neither fighter has looked overwhelmingly impressive and this fight will be the biggest test either has faced.
Del Rosario won all three of his Strikeforce fights on Challengers cards over Brandon Cash, Lolohea Mahe and Lavar Johnson. He finished all three fights in the first round showing the ability to close with either strikes or submissions. None of those fighters presented a well rounded game to compete with Del Rosario’s skill set and against Miocic, he’ll be facing a more complete fighter. Miocic showed showed powerful if not technically perfect hands in his previous fight against Philip De Fries. Look for Del Rosario to start by striking with Miocic and try to take advantage of the openings he showed in that fight. But as soon as he feels threatened, expect Rosario to try to get the fight to the ground and work his submission game from the top position.
Miocic will more than likely look to keep the fight on the feet and rely on his boxing to try to earn the victory. Lavar Johnson had Del Rosario in trouble and while Miocic might not have the raw power that Johnson has, he’s more technical and could use that accuracy to finish the fight if he gets an opportunity. He will need to use his wrestling defensively in this fight to keep the fight standing. If he can use leg kicks to slow Rosario and then attack with punches, he’ll have a chance at pulling off the upset.
Del Rosario comes into this fight as the favorite at -200 with Miocic getting +170. Look for Del Rosario to strike early and use the clinch to get Miocic to the ground. Once there, he will attempt to create openings with ground and pound to attack with submissions. Miocic will be looking to do the opposite and keep the fight standing to utilize his boxing. Del Rosario should have the superior all around game and earn the victory but if he gets sloppy on his feet, Miocic could take advantage and steal the win.
Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve
Saturday night’s opening fight will feature a fight that is almost guaranteed not to make it out of the first round as Lavar Johnson’s faces Stefan Struve. This is the type of fight that makes fans wonder if UFC matchmaker Joe Silva is laughing maniacally in a dark office somewhere at the potential train wreck he has set in motion. Struve has shown a propensity to leave his notoriously weak chin up in the air and Johnson has some of the most powerful punches in the division. If Johnson’s fists touch Struve’s chin, this fight will be over.
Struve is one of the most interesting fighters in the heavyweight division. At 6’11,” he is the tallest legitimate fighter in the world and he uses that height to his advantage by kicking his opponents from distances where they can’t even come close to reaching him. He has shown knockout power in his strikes and has an excellent Dutch muay thai game that he has used to finish several UFC fights. He also uses his long legs to his advantage on the ground where he can latch on to chokes from positions where fighters aren’t used to having to defend against them. His height combined with his technique provides a unique challenge for every opponent he face. His one major weakness thus far in his career has been his chin. Once fighters get inside his outrageous reach, they have been able to consistently drop him with punches. To Struve’s credit, he has survived several knockdowns and fought back to earn victories but that will not be a likely outcome on Saturday night. If he wants to defeat Johnson, he needs to avoid the striking game and get this fight to the mat quickly where he has a significant advantage. If he can do that, he should be able to finish with a submission shortly thereafter.
Lavar Johnson has scary power in his hands. He has finished his last two opponents with punches and if Struve decides to engage in a striking match, he will likely face the same fate. Johnson will look to force the issue and go after Struve early in this fight. He has a limited ground game and he will be in trouble if he finds himself grappling with Struve. Expect Johnson to be swinging for Struve’s chin from the opening bell and even if he grazes it, that could be enough to finish the fight. His goal will be to control the octagon and push Struve against the cage where he can use uppercuts and short hooks to drop his opponent and finish the fight.
The bookmakers have this fight at almost a pick ‘em with Struve favored at -125 and Johnson the “underdog” at +105. That’s exactly where the line should be because if Johnson lands a punch, the fight could be over in an instant but if Struve can get the fight to the ground, it could end just as quickly. This fight lends itself to an early finish and both fighters have a distinct route to earning the victory. The outcome will depend on whether Struve can get the fight to the ground before Johnson lands a punch.
(How awesome was the retro promo that preceded the conference? Finally, the UFC’s marketing department is making an effort.)
We’re not going to insult anyone’s intelligence; you all know what’s going down this Saturday at UFC 146. There may have been endless change ups, Twitter campaigns, and even change ups involving members of the aforementioned Twitter campaigns, but this weekend promises to be an, excuse the overused term, epic night of fights based on body mass alone.
(How awesome was the retro promo that preceded the conference? Finally, the UFC’s marketing department is making an effort.)
We’re not going to insult anyone’s intelligence; you all know what’s going down this Saturday at UFC 146. There may have been endless change ups, Twitter campaigns, and even change ups involving members of the aforementioned Twitter campaigns, but this weekend promises to be an, excuse the overused term, epic night of fights based on body mass alone.
In fact, we’d be surprised if you were still reading this, knowing that there is really nothing more we can write to convince you where to place your money, who to root for based on the roughness of their upbringing alone, or whether or not the winner will do something incredibly stupid afterward. But just in case you are, here are a few things we took away from the conference:
2. Stefan Struve thinks that, in retrospect, it’s amazing that he fought JDS at just 21 years old. I would’ve gone with “horrifying,” but perhaps that’s why I’m a blogger, not a blogger/fighter. In time, Potato Nation.
3. Despite all the brain scramblings he’s suffered over the past few years, Frank Mir can still articulate himself better than most politicians.
Unfortunately, last Tuesday’s UFC on FUEL: Zombie vs. Poirier card all but completely derailed our recent run of luck with the Gambling Enabler (aside from the decision to purchase some Bud Light Platinums to celebrate another beautiful McKenzietine bet), but hopefully this weekend’s UFC 146 event, which features an all heavyweight main card for the first time in UFC history will help get things back on track. So without further adieu, may we present to you the tasty betting lines, brought to you courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our brilliant/equally insane advice below.
Unfortunately, last Tuesday’s UFC on FUEL: Zombie vs. Poirier card all but completely derailed our recent run of luck with the Gambling Enabler (aside from the decision to purchase some Bud Light Platinums to celebrate another beautiful McKenzietine bet), but hopefully this weekend’s UFC 146 event, which features an all heavyweight main card for the first time in UFC history will help get things back on track. So without further adieu, may we present to you the tasty betting lines, brought to you courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our brilliant/equally insane advice below.
The Main Event: Good God, has the world completely forgotten that Frank Mir is a former heavyweight champion for Christ’s sake? When we first came across those odds, not only did we double take, we nearly went into full on SpongeBob Squarepants bubble-blowing mode. Look, we all know that JDS has been damn near untouchable since nuking Fabricio Werdum in his octagon debut. We also know that Frank Mir’s chin leaves something to be desired, but at those odds, you’d think this was the squash match of the century, and that’s already been booked in the featherweight division. Mir is a submission savant with a pretty stellar standup game, and considering the experience advantage he’ll be bringing with him come Saturday, it would be nothing short of foolish to place at least a small bet on him at those ridiculous odds. Keep Junior in your parlay, because he has the kind of cement-filled hands that could end Mir’s night really, really early, but a side bet on Mir is common sense here.
The Good Dogs: We hate to be rude, but judging by their last performances, we’d say that Dave Herman and Antonio Silva are f’ing screwed. Plain and simple. Velasquez is too fast and dynamic for “Bigfoot,” and regardless of how Nelson has looked as of late, he is simply on another level than Herman, so scratch those from your list of viable options. The Rosario/Miocic line is really too close to warrant a big bet, and is one of those guaranteed slugfests that is best enjoyed with a cold beer, some nachos, and zero investment in the fighters at hand. Given his insane power, as well as Struve’s tendency to stand for way too long with people he has no business standing with, Lavar “Big” Johnson looks like a decent bet at +105. Then again, Pat Barry almost pulled off a keylock on him. Then again, Pat Barry almost pulled off a keylock on him. That is no typo; we want to let that notion settle in. Once Struve gets this to the ground, it will be over quicker than you can even kick yourself for betting on “Big” in the first place.
Really, the best underdog pick on this card is Paul Sass. Terrible nickname aside, he’s managed to score a couple impressive victories since jumping into the deep waters of the UFC’s lightweight division, mainly, his most recent heel hook win over TUF 12 finalist Michael Johnson. Volkmann has proven to be a force at 155, scoring five straight since dropping from welterweight, but none of those victories have really convinced us that he can do anything other than out-grapple his opponent for three rounds. Sass is a finisher, and Volkmann is anything but. This fight comes down to where you stand on the BJJ vs. wrestling debate, but we expect to see Sass pull off a second or third round sub and claim his place amongst the upper echelon of the lightweight division.
The Easy Bet: Diego Brandao. Although he saw some ups and downs in his glass plaque-earning effort over Dennis Bermudez at the TUF 14 Finale, he should easily be able to handle Darren Elkins, whose 3-1 octagon record looks a bit different when you realize that one of those victories came as a result of Duane Ludwig’s flimsy ankles, and another came as a result of the incompetence of MMA judges in his fight with Michihiro Omigawa. We feel compelled to mention the Miller/Dolloway match considering what’s at stake, but you might as well just throw your paycheck in the fire before you bet on either of those gentlemen.
Official CagePotato Parlay: dos Santos + Velasquez + Nelson + Brandao
Suggested stake for a $50 parlay
$25 on the parlay
$10 on Mir
$10 on Sass
$5 on Kingsbury (because UFC jitters are a thing)
(Let’s be honest, you’d pay to watch these three knuckleheads do *anything*.)
As Danga pointed out yesterday, injuries and surprise drug tests have led to all five of UFC 146‘s main card bouts being altered since they were first announced, which puts “Dos Santos vs. Mir” right up there with MMA’s most cursed events of all time. But let’s be fair — the UFC originally promised us ten aggressive heavyweights bashing the hell out of each other, and they’re still giving us just that. So is UFC 146 a rag-tag bunch of scab-fights, or a compelling lineup in itself? Let’s break it down…
Original main event: Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem Current main event: Junior dos Santos vs. Frank Mir Advantage:Even. Luckily, our schizophrenic contributor Josh Hutchinson has already presented bothsides of this issue, and I’m leaning towards the idea that Mir as a main-event replacement isn’t a total disaster. At first, we had the two best heavyweight strikers in MMA slugging it out for supremacy. Now, we have…well, who knows? Mir’s brilliant ground game opens up a whole new set of outcomes for this one. And isn’t MMA at its best when it’s chaotic and unpredictable? (I know, some of you just watch for the big muscles, but I’m a true fan, okay bro?)
Original co-main event: Cain Velasquez vs. Frank Mir Current co-main event: Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva Advantage:Original. And I only say that because Velasquez vs. Mir felt like less of a squash match. Bigfoot really could have used a softer landing in the Octagon; making his UFC debut in a pay-per-view co-main event against a juggernaut ex-champ like Velasquez smells like serious trouble for the Brazilian, who already failed a chin-test against Daniel Cormier in September.
(Let’s be honest, you’d pay to watch these three knuckleheads do *anything*.)
As Danga pointed out yesterday, injuries and surprise drug tests have led to all five of UFC 146‘s main card bouts being altered since they were first announced, which puts “Dos Santos vs. Mir” right up there with MMA’s most cursed events of all time. But let’s be fair — the UFC originally promised us ten aggressive heavyweights bashing the hell out of each other, and they’re still giving us just that. So is UFC 146 a rag-tag bunch of scab-fights, or a compelling lineup in itself? Let’s break it down…
Original main event:Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem Current main event: Junior dos Santos vs. Frank Mir Advantage:Even. Luckily, our schizophrenic contributor Josh Hutchinson has already presented bothsides of this issue, and I’m leaning towards the idea that Mir as a main-event replacement isn’t a total disaster. At first, we had the two best heavyweight strikers in MMA slugging it out for supremacy. Now, we have…well, who knows? Mir’s brilliant ground game opens up a whole new set of outcomes for this one. And isn’t MMA at its best when it’s chaotic and unpredictable? (I know, some of you just watch for the big muscles, but I’m a true fan, okay bro?)
Original co-main event:Cain Velasquez vs. Frank Mir Current co-main event: Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva Advantage:Original. And I only say that because Velasquez vs. Mir felt like less of a squash match. Bigfoot really could have used a softer landing in the Octagon; making his UFC debut in a pay-per-view co-main event against a juggernaut ex-champ like Velasquez smells like serious trouble for the Brazilian, who already failed a chin-test against Daniel Cormier in September.
Original main card bout #3:Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Silva Current main card bout #3: Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman Advantage:Original. See above; Nelson vs. Silva made a lot of sense as a matchup, and I was looking forward to it. Plus, after his February loss to Stefan Struve, I’m not sold on Dave Herman as main-card material.
Original main card bout #2:Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Del Rosario Current main card bout #2: Stipe Miocic vs. Shane Del Rosario Advantage:Current. Unless you’re a big Gabe Gonzaga fan (?), this match just became a lot more relevant. Miocic and Del Rosario are both undefeated up-and-comers with a combined finishing ratio of 94.7%, and the winner of this fight follows in the footsteps of Travis Browne and Lavar Johnson as the hot-shot heavyweight prospect to watch. Personally, I think Miocic is going to emerge from this one as a rising star.
Original main card bout #1:Stefan Struve vs. Mark Hunt Current main card bout #1: Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson Advantage:Even. Look, I’m almost as depressed about Mark Hunt’s injury as Mark Hunt is. Plus, if I’m not mistaken, Struve vs. Hunt represented the greatest height differential in UFC history (13 inches!), which would have been awesome to see, just on an anthropological level. But I think we’re simply replacing one awesome Cinderella story (Hunt’s) with another just-as-good one (Johnson’s). Johnson came to the UFC riding back-to-back losses in Strikeforce, which followed nearly getting shot to death. Few expected him to make an impact in the UFC — and yet he’s already scored first-round knockouts of Joey Beltran and Pat Barry, picking up $130,000 in bonus money in the process. Now he’s re-entering the cage with just a three-week layoff between the Barry fight and this one. Do you believe in miracles?
Final analysis: If the original card was a 9 out of 10, the current card is at least a strong 7.5. Yes, we lost Alistair Overeem, and yes, we gained Dave Herman. But in terms of entertainment value, UFC 146 hasn’t given up a whole lot. Agree or disagree? (Sorry Hutchinson, you can’t do both…)
(Mark Hunt, seen here at the moment he found out where Lavar Johnson got his nickname.)
Shitty news for you “Super Samoan” fans, as it has been confirmed by none other than Mark Hunt himself, via his Twitter account, that he has suffered a knee injury in training and has been forced to withdraw from his scheduled contest against Stefan Struve at UFC 146. For those of you keeping track, this now means that every single main card fight has been altered from its original pairing, and we’re still over a week out. If you’re currently a ticket holder for UFC 146, we recommend you cross your fingers and stick your head in the sand until May 26th comes around.
I heard last night there was a chance I could get this fight and I accepted right away. You don’t get chances like this too much in life, so when you are lucky, you got to make the most of it. I took one week off after last fight [May 5] and then went back to the gym.
So, Potato Nation, is anyone more stoked at the idea of Johnson/Struve than the original matchup? And who do you think takes this?
(Mark Hunt, seen here at the moment he found out where Lavar Johnson got his nickname.)
Shitty news for you “Super Samoan” fans, as it has been confirmed by none other than Mark Hunt himself, via his Twitter account, that he has suffered a knee injury in training and has been forced to withdraw from his scheduled contest against Stefan Struve at UFC 146. For those of you keeping track, this now means that every single main card fight has been altered from its original pairing, and we’re still over a week out. If you’re currently a ticket holder for UFC 146, we recommend you cross your fingers and stick your head in the sand until May 26th comes around.
I heard last night there was a chance I could get this fight and I accepted right away. You don’t get chances like this too much in life, so when you are lucky, you got to make the most of it. I took one week off after last fight [May 5] and then went back to the gym.
So, Potato Nation, is anyone more stoked at the idea of Johnson/Struve than the original matchup? And who do you think takes this?
