Both fighters are arguably in a must-win situation, as both have dropped 3 of their past 5 contests. The cards are clearly more stacked against McKenzie, however, as his three octagon wins have all come over fighters who have since been released by the UFC — Aaron Wilkinson, Marcus Levesseur, and Garcia. “The AK Kid” was also recently dubbed “the worst fighter in the UFC” by Chael P. Sonnen, but he did provide the single greatest moment in The Ultimate Fighter history, so who the hell really knows what the future holds for this goofy, affable sonofabitch.
Stout, on the other hand, was most recently choked out by James Krause at UFC 161 in a Fight of the Night-earning affair. Prior to that, he notched a decision victory over Carlos Fodor at UFC 157. Prior to that, Stout was routed by John Makdessi at UFC 154 in a fight that highlighted his somewhat skewed interpretation of MMA scoring.
Official CP Prediction: Stout lights up McKenzie for a solid two rounds before running directly into the Alaskan’s signature McKenzietine. Upon waking up, Stout will retire from the sport in his post-fight interview, claiming that “He’s getting too old for this shit” and just wants a desk job. But in a shocking turn of events, Stout will immediately change his mind, snatch the mic from Joe Rogan’s hand, and inform the attending audience that he will be challenging the Michael Chandler/Eddie Alvarez winner for the Bellator lightweight title at an event TBD.
Both fighters are arguably in a must-win situation, as both have dropped 3 of their past 5 contests. The cards are clearly more stacked against McKenzie, however, as his three octagon wins have all come over fighters who have since been released by the UFC — Aaron Wilkinson, Marcus Levesseur, and Garcia. “The AK Kid” was also recently dubbed “the worst fighter in the UFC” by Chael P. Sonnen, but he did provide the single greatest moment in The Ultimate Fighter history, so who the hell really knows what the future holds for this goofy, affable sonofabitch.
Stout, on the other hand, was most recently choked out by James Krause at UFC 161 in a Fight of the Night-earning affair. Prior to that, he notched a decision victory over Carlos Fodor at UFC 157. Prior to that, Stout was routed by John Makdessi at UFC 154 in a fight that highlighted his somewhat skewed interpretation of MMA scoring.
Official CP Prediction: Stout lights up McKenzie for a solid two rounds before running directly into the Alaskan’s signature McKenzietine. Upon waking up, Stout will retire from the sport in his post-fight interview, claiming that “He’s getting too old for this shit” and just wants a desk job. But in a shocking turn of events, Stout will immediately change his mind, snatch the mic from Joe Rogan’s hand, and inform the attending audience that he will be challenging the Michael Chandler/Eddie Alvarez winner for the Bellator lightweight title at an event TBD.
(Admit it. You’re gonna miss that face. | Photo via MMAWeekly)
UFC lightweight Paul Taylor has retired from MMA competition after the most recent of a long string of injuries forced him out of at least his fourth fight in the last three years. Taylor hasn’t fought since his knockout win against Gabe Ruediger in February 2011.
“All his old injuries flared up in training,” a source close to Taylor told Fighters Only. “He’s very disappointed not to be fighting on the Manchester card but there’s nothing he can do, these injuries just won’t go away.”
Taylor ends his career with an overall record of 11-6-1 (with 1 NC), and a 4-5 tally in the UFC. But despite his journeyman’s record, Taylor was a consistently exciting fighter, winning three Fight of The Night bonuses since he began his Octagon run in 2007. (In particular, his UFC 75 battle against Marcus Davis remains one of the greatest one-round fights in UFC history.) Taylor was also key part of the organization’s promotional efforts in his native Britain. Taylor fought six times for the UFC in the UK.
Like Shane Carwin, Paul Taylor had enough talent and heart to have a much longer career in mixed martial arts, but his body simply didn’t cooperate. Enjoy retirement and be well, “Relentless” Paul.
(Admit it. You’re gonna miss that face. | Photo via MMAWeekly)
UFC lightweight Paul Taylor has retired from MMA competition after the most recent of a long string of injuries forced him out of at least his fourth fight in the last three years. Taylor hasn’t fought since his knockout win against Gabe Ruediger in February 2011.
“All his old injuries flared up in training,” a source close to Taylor told Fighters Only. “He’s very disappointed not to be fighting on the Manchester card but there’s nothing he can do, these injuries just won’t go away.”
Taylor ends his career with an overall record of 11-6-1 (with 1 NC), and a 4-5 tally in the UFC. But despite his journeyman’s record, Taylor was a consistently exciting fighter, winning three Fight of The Night bonuses since he began his Octagon run in 2007. (In particular, his UFC 75 battle against Marcus Davis remains one of the greatest one-round fights in UFC history.) Taylor was also key part of the organization’s promotional efforts in his native Britain. Taylor fought six times for the UFC in the UK.
Like Shane Carwin, Paul Taylor had enough talent and heart to have a much longer career in mixed martial arts, but his body simply didn’t cooperate. Enjoy retirement and be well, “Relentless” Paul.
(Sounds like a good plan, but wait until you’re married for a year, and your wife’s all like, “Bensonnnn why do you spend all your time defending your title, what about meeeeeeeee, we never go anywhere anymorrrrrrre.” Ugh. Am I right? Back me up here, married guys. / Photo via MMAFighting)
It seems like one of MMA’s most untouchable records, but Benson Henderson is convinced that he will beat former middleweight champion Anderson Silva‘s consecutive title defense streak of ten.
“I’m going to break it in 2016,” the ever-confident UFC lightweight champion told MMA Fighting.
I should be able to break it by 2015, but because I’m getting married I’m going to take some time off for my honeymoon. That’s going to set me back by about three to four months. But I have it down exactly. I know when I’m going to break it. It’s going to be early 2016. I know what number I need to get. I know the amount of hard work it’s going to take for me to get there. I know how much I’ve got to get beat up, I know how much I’ve got to practice. I’m aware of it. I know it. Now my goal is to go out there and go do it.
Well, alright. We can’t hate on Henderson. The kid has earned what he has, to say the least, and by all accounts works crazy hard. He’s also just a flat-out incredible fighter and looks better each time out.
That said, considering that he has just three consecutive successful title-defenses right now, with an attempt at a fourth coming Saturday at UFC 164, and that two of those bouts were incredibly close — against Frankie Edgar and his last against Gilbert Melendez — predicting ten straight seems a bit outlandish.
It’s not that Henderson isn’t capable of winning seven more straight, it’s just that he’ll probably continue to fight to close decisions a lot considering the parity of the lightweight division. One of these days, the judges might not see things his way; you’re rolling the dice every time you let the scorecards decide the fight, and you can’t always expect the judges to behave rationally.
(Sounds like a good plan, but wait until you’re married for a year, and your wife’s all like, “Bensonnnn why do you spend all your time defending your title, what about meeeeeeeee, we never go anywhere anymorrrrrrre.” Ugh. Am I right? Back me up here, married guys. / Photo via MMAFighting)
It seems like one of MMA’s most untouchable records, but Benson Henderson is convinced that he will beat former middleweight champion Anderson Silva‘s consecutive title defense streak of ten.
“I’m going to break it in 2016,” the ever-confident UFC lightweight champion told MMA Fighting.
I should be able to break it by 2015, but because I’m getting married I’m going to take some time off for my honeymoon. That’s going to set me back by about three to four months. But I have it down exactly. I know when I’m going to break it. It’s going to be early 2016. I know what number I need to get. I know the amount of hard work it’s going to take for me to get there. I know how much I’ve got to get beat up, I know how much I’ve got to practice. I’m aware of it. I know it. Now my goal is to go out there and go do it.
Well, alright. We can’t hate on Henderson. The kid has earned what he has, to say the least, and by all accounts works crazy hard. He’s also just a flat-out incredible fighter and looks better each time out.
That said, considering that he has just three consecutive successful title-defenses right now, with an attempt at a fourth coming Saturday at UFC 164, and that two of those bouts were incredibly close — against Frankie Edgar and his last against Gilbert Melendez — predicting ten straight seems a bit outlandish.
It’s not that Henderson isn’t capable of winning seven more straight, it’s just that he’ll probably continue to fight to close decisions a lot considering the parity of the lightweight division. One of these days, the judges might not see things his way; you’re rolling the dice every time you let the scorecards decide the fight, and you can’t always expect the judges to behave rationally.
That said, fighting professionally is pretty irrational itself, and a great deal of confidence (as well as dedication and hard work) is required to step into the cage year after year. If Henderson didn’t believe he could win ten in a row — or fifty, for that matter — he should probably find another line of work.
What do you think, Nation? Is Henderson the guy you would pick as the favorite to break Anderson’s record? If not him, who?
As for his rematch with Anthony Pettis in Milwaukee this Saturday, to whom Henderson lost his WEC title to in 2010, the champ is positive he will use his wrestling to dominate. “St-Pierre says it. If I’m going against somebody, and I know his weakness is this place, yeah, I’m going to exploit it,” he said.
“I’m going to find out every weakness and then go pick on that area.”
Even though Newell hasn’t yet won his WSOF debut, the promotion announced that a win over Caldwell would earn Newell a spot in its upcoming lightweight tournament, which will crown the promotion’s inaugural 155-pound champion. If Newell does indeed enter that tournament, he’ll have a chance to prove once and for all that he’s truly a UFC-caliber fighter.
Why, you ask? Well, simply because the tournament is stacked with top international lightweights including a number of UFC veterans. Dan Lauzon will be in the tournament, as will the winner of an excellent WSOF 4 match up between Tyson Griffin and Gesias Calvacante.
Of course, all this doesn’t sit so well with Keon Caldwell’s camp, who tell MMA Junkie that they are worried of unfair treatment from the WSOF. While Newell has been publicly guaranteed a spot in the lightweight tournament if he’s victorious this weekend, Caldwell has been given no such offer. (“I just think they’re on the Nick Newell hype train,” said Caldwell’s trainer Richard Cox.)
Also fighting this Saturday will be kickboxing star Tyrone Spong, who will be headlining WSOF 4 against California-bred knockout artist Angel DeAnda. It will be Spong’s second World Series of Fighting appearance following his beat-down of Travis Bartlett in November. You can check out a lil’ video of Spong hitting people and acting cocky after the jump. Above, you can enjoy a mini documentary show on Newell’s life that takes you inside his camp, family, and home.
(Learn more about lightweight rising star Nick Newell and the challenges he’s overcome | Video via MMA World Series Youtube page)
Even though Newell hasn’t yet won his WSOF debut, the promotion announced that a win over Caldwell would earn Newell a spot in its upcoming lightweight tournament, which will crown the promotion’s inaugural 155-pound champion. If Newell does indeed enter that tournament, he’ll have a chance to prove once and for all that he’s truly a UFC-caliber fighter.
Why, you ask? Well, simply because the tournament is stacked with top international lightweights including a number of UFC veterans. Dan Lauzon will be in the tournament, as will the winner of an excellent WSOF 4 match up between Tyson Griffin and Gesias Calvacante.
Of course, all this doesn’t sit so well with Keon Caldwell’s camp, who tell MMA Junkie that they are worried of unfair treatment from the WSOF. While Newell has been publicly guaranteed a spot in the lightweight tournament if he’s victorious this weekend, Caldwell has been given no such offer. (“I just think they’re on the Nick Newell hype train,” said Caldwell’s trainer Richard Cox.)
Also fighting this Saturday will be kickboxing star Tyrone Spong, who will be headlining WSOF 4 against California-bred knockout artist Angel DeAnda. It will be Spong’s second World Series of Fighting appearance following his beat-down of Travis Bartlett in November. You can check out a lil’ video of Spong hitting people and acting cocky after the jump. Above, you can enjoy a mini documentary show on Newell’s life that takes you inside his camp, family, and home.
(Props: TheMrsCountryman. Fight starts at the 2:23 mark, knockout happens at 4:16. And yeah, the audio doesn’t work in this clip, so feel free to hum a tune of your choice.)
Ten months before making his UFC debut at the TUF 2 Finale in November 2005, Melvin Guillard decided to take a pro boxing bout in Las Vegas against a Detroit-based fighter named James Countryman. The fight did not go well for Melvin.
About a minute and a half into the match, Countryman lands a big overhand right that levels Guillard. The Young Assassin springs to his feet and nods his head a couple times to signify that yes, he got smacked with a good one, then goes right back into the fight. Seconds later, Guillard catches a left hook from Countryman flush on the jaw and falls backwards into the ropes, unconscious. Game. Over.
Guillard would go onto a successful career in the UFC, but has never boxed professionally again. Countryman boxed for four more years, compiling a 14-1 record through March 2009. Interestingly enough, Countryman’s final boxing match was a decision win against none other than Karl “KJ” Noons, the current UFC lightweight and former EliteXC champion. Noons fought three more boxing matches that year, winning all three of them, and put together an 11-2 boxing record overall before devoting himself to MMA full time — which maybe wasn’t the greatest choice, in retrospect.
(Props: TheMrsCountryman. Fight starts at the 2:23 mark, knockout happens at 4:16. And yeah, the audio doesn’t work in this clip, so feel free to hum a tune of your choice.)
Ten months before making his UFC debut at the TUF 2 Finale in November 2005, Melvin Guillard decided to take a pro boxing bout in Las Vegas against a Detroit-based fighter named James Countryman. The fight did not go well for Melvin.
About a minute and a half into the match, Countryman lands a big overhand right that levels Guillard. The Young Assassin springs to his feet and nods his head a couple times to signify that yes, he got smacked with a good one, then goes right back into the fight. Seconds later, Guillard catches a left hook from Countryman flush on the jaw and falls backwards into the ropes, unconscious. Game. Over.
Guillard would go onto a successful career in the UFC, but has never boxed professionally again. Countryman boxed for four more years, compiling a 14-1 record through March 2009. Interestingly enough, Countryman’s final boxing match was a decision win against none other than Karl “KJ” Noons, the current UFC lightweight and former EliteXC champion. Noons fought three more boxing matches that year, winning all three of them, and put together an 11-2 boxing record overall before devoting himself to MMA full time — which maybe wasn’t the greatest choice, in retrospect.
Last week we broke down the UFC Featherweight division in key striking metrics. This week we’ll look at the largest (numerically) UFC division, the Lightweights. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.
The Winners
Sniper Award: Daron Cruickshank finally showed off his striking skills in his second UFC appearance against Henry Martinez on the UFC on FOX 5 card in Seattle. With nearly 50% accuracy, he looked like he was practicing on a heavy bag before mercifully dropping an iron-chinned Martinez with a head kick KO. Interestingly, the “Detroit Superstar” is set to face another division sniper, John Makdessi, in March at UFC 158.
Energizer Bunny Award: Tim Means is two wins into his UFC career, and has almost doubled the standing output of his two opponents. He also maintained good accuracy and scored two knockdowns in those performances.
Biggest Ball(s) Award: Melvin Guillard has been punching above his weight for a long time in the UFC. To date Guillard has 12 knockdowns, putting him 3rd all-time in the UFC behind Anderson Silva and Chuck Liddell. Not bad for a lightweight.
(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)
Last week we broke down the UFC Featherweight division in key striking metrics. This week we’ll look at the largest (numerically) UFC division, the Lightweights. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.
The Winners
Sniper Award: Daron Cruickshank finally showed off his striking skills in his second UFC appearance against Henry Martinez on the UFC on FOX 5 card in Seattle. With nearly 50% accuracy, he looked like he was practicing on a heavy bag before mercifully dropping an iron-chinned Martinez with a head kick KO. Interestingly, the “Detroit Superstar” is set to face another division sniper, John Makdessi, in March at UFC 158.
Energizer Bunny Award: Tim Means is two wins into his UFC career, and has almost doubled the standing output of his two opponents. He also maintained good accuracy and scored two knockdowns in those performances.
Biggest Ball(s) Award: Melvin Guillard has been punching above his weight for a long time in the UFC. To date Guillard has 12 knockdowns, putting him 3rd all-time in the UFC behind Anderson Silva and Chuck Liddell. Not bad for a lightweight.
The Losers
Swing and a Miss Award: Justin Salas has landed just 15% of his power head strikes in his first two UFC fights and appears at the bottom of the graphed fighters. But (dis)honorable mention also goes to Mitch “Danger Zone” Clarke, who is 0 for 47 in power head strikes through nearly 25 minutes of Octagon time. Unfortunately, because Clarke was so far into the danger zone, I couldn’t fit him onto the graph.
Smallest Ball(s): 15 of the 55 lightweight fighters graphed have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa appearances, not an unusual number for a lower weight division. But Mark Bocek and Thiago Tavares have failed to do so despite over two hours of Octagon time each. Given that both fighters tend to be outpaced by their opponents, perhaps they need to try planting their feet.
Starnes Award for Inaction: Reza Madadi has had solid accuracy through his first two UFC appearances, but had less than half the striking output of his opponents. He’ll need to step on the gas if he doesn’t want to drop close decisions in the future.
Also Noteworthy
In a division made famous by strong wrestlers, it’s no surprise that the top ranked fighters aren’t pure strikers. But keep an eye on Anthony Pettis, who will bring a striking advantage to his recently announced featherweight fight against current champion Jose Aldo. Aldo has had sharper striking than most of his opponents to date, so this will be an interesting challenge.
Despite his recent UD loss to Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz shows impressive accuracy and the ability to push the pace — at least, when he has vision in both eyes. He’s down but not out.
For those counting red bubbles, the Lightweight division has a high 27% share of left-handers, about three times the normal rate for the population.
The lightweight division is often thought to be the deepest in the UFC, but we’ll have to see how the new additions play out against tried-and-true veterans.
How the Analysis Works:
In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:
Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Lightweights is about 26%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.
Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.
Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.
The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155. Some of these fighters competed in other weight classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed. Because of the size of the division, fighters with only one fight were not included in the graph.
