Tag: Michael Kuiper

Gambling Addiction Enabler: TUF China Finale, Bellator 110 and Titan FC 27 Edition

By Seth Falvo

I have a feeling that most of you degenerate gamblers are going to take this weekend off. And hey, that’s a very logical decision. The TUF: China Finale is packed to the brim with squash matches and unknown prospects, and if you’re the type of person who doesn’t normally watch Bellator or Titan FC, it would be an incredibly stupid risk to throw money down on fighters you barely recognize.

Which is exactly what makes a “Gambling Addiction Enabler” for this weekend’s fights so appropriate. With the UFC hosting an obscure Fight Pass card — and Bellator and Titan FC featuring guys you’ve heard of but aren’t necessarily invested in — only the most hardcore MMA fans and the most hopeless gambling addicts are going to be risking their money on this weekend’s fights. If you fall into either category, we’d be letting you down if we decided not to share our rock-solid (*tries to stop laughing*) gambling advice with you.

If you’re the type of person who enjoys drinking Camo 24, betting on professional wrestling, getting a PhD in English, and other reckless, high-risk activities, then read on for my picks and suggested parlays, which are based on the odds at 5Dimes. May the winnings be yours.

The Main Events

TUF: China Finale: Dong Hyun Kim (-360) vs. John Hathaway (+300)

It’s hard to disagree with the odds here. Kim has not only faced tougher competition, but he also has the advantage of fighting on his home continent; not exactly a frivolous observation, as Kim himself would be quick to point out. A straight bet on Kim won’t yield an impressive return, but it does make for a low-risk parlay addition.

Bellator 110: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-450) vs. Christian M’Pumbu (+360)

By Seth Falvo

I have a feeling that most of you degenerate gamblers are going to take this weekend off. And hey, that’s a very logical decision. The TUF: China Finale is packed to the brim with squash matches and unknown prospects, and if you’re the type of person who doesn’t normally watch Bellator or Titan FC, it would be an incredibly stupid risk to throw money down on fighters you barely recognize.

Which is exactly what makes a “Gambling Addiction Enabler” for this weekend’s fights so appropriate. With the UFC hosting an obscure Fight Pass card — and Bellator and Titan FC featuring guys you’ve heard of but aren’t necessarily invested in — only the most hardcore MMA fans and the most hopeless gambling addicts are going to be risking their money on this weekend’s fights. If you fall into either category, we’d be letting you down if we decided not to share our rock-solid (*tries to stop laughing*) gambling advice with you.

If you’re the type of person who enjoys drinking Camo 24, betting on professional wrestling, getting a PhD in English, and other reckless, high-risk activities, then read on for my picks and suggested parlays, which are based on the odds at 5Dimes. May the winnings be yours.

The Main Events

TUF: China Finale: Dong Hyun Kim (-360) vs. John Hathaway (+300)

It’s hard to disagree with the odds here. Kim has not only faced tougher competition, but he also has the advantage of fighting on his home continent; not exactly a frivolous observation, as Kim himself would be quick to point out. A straight bet on Kim won’t yield an impressive return, but it does make for a low-risk parlay addition.

Bellator 110: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (-450) vs. Christian M’Pumbu (+360)

On paper, Christian M’Pumbu is exactly the type of fighter who Rampage Jackson should have zero problems with — he’s as pure of a kickboxer as you’ll find in a major MMA promotion, who would rather stand and trade haymakers than clinch against the cage. Yet after watching Jackson’s promotional debut against Joey Beltran, Rampage at -450 is not even remotely worth the risk of an upset. Especially when you consider that Bellator is sort-of hoping for Rampage vs. King Mo in the next round of this tournament, which obviously means that at least one of them is destined to lose on Friday night. M’Pumbu at anything over +450 would be worth a $5 for shiggles, but at +360? Move along, people; this fight is in Stay the Hell Away From territory.

Titan FC 27: Mike Ricci (-725) vs. Jorge Gurgel (+470)

Unfortunately, there is no “This Fight Will Make Everyone Feel Very Empty Inside” prop.

Also Worth Consideration

TUF: China Finale: Shawn Jordan (-135) vs. Matt Mitrione (-105)

I’m surprised that Shawn Jordan isn’t a bigger favorite. Jordan has the better record, the more impressive resume, and better wrestling; he should have zero problems with Matt Mitrione. Honestly, the only advantage that I’m giving to Mitrione is that his body isn’t covered in blatant scratch worthy of a spot on our ugliest tattoos in MMA list. Seriously, person who drew Jordan’s chest/shoulder piece, what the hell?

TUF: China Finale: Hatsu Hioki (-400) vs. Ivan Menjivar (+280)
Bellator 110: Mike Richman (-250) vs. Des Green (+190)
Bellator 110: Will Martinez (+280) vs. Goiti Yamauchi (-370)
Titan FC 27: Bryan Goldsby (+240) vs. Kevin Croom (-300)

And now we’re entering the squash match portion of the upcoming bouts. Don’t be fooled by Hatsu Hioki’s three-fight losing streak — he has looked unstoppable on Asian soil. Add on that this fight is a must-win for him, and there’s no way that his hand isn’t getting raised on Friday. Over in Bellator, Mike Richman should prove too experienced and well-rounded for Team Bombsquad product Des Green. Goiti Yamauchi is a twenty-one year old grappling ace with thirteen of his sixteen career victories coming via submission — eleven of which coming in the first round — fighting an 8-2 curtain-jerker. The prop that this fight will last less than 1.5 rounds is definitely worth exploring here. Meanwhile, in Titan FC, Kevin “The Hard-Hitting Hillbilly” [Author Note: Not sure if nickname is awesome or terrible] Croom is not only also a fantastic grappler, but he also benefits from fighting a 17-15 journeyman with seven career submission losses. Easy call.

The Good Dogs

TUF: China Finale: Nam Phan (-185) vs. Vaughan Lee (+145)

Both Phan and Lee are coming off of losses, but Phan is favored here because he’s an Asian (sort-of) fighting in Asia, I guess. Except, you know, Phan grew up in California, so there is no “fighting on his home continent” advantage here, and Lee has proven that he can win in Asia at this level with his victory over Kid Yamamoto at UFC 144. At +145, a straight bet won’t provide a ton of bang for your buck, but Lee makes for a relatively low risk parlay addition.

Bellator 110: Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal (-245) vs. Mikhail Zayats (+185)
Bellator 110: Diego Nunes (-375) vs. Matt Bessette (+285)

“Hey, I’ve actually heard of this guy, so he will win” isn’t exactly a smart betting strategy. This is especially true with Mikhail Zayats; he has won eight of his last ten fights — including a first-round TKO over Babalu — and those two losses come to Emanuel Newton and Vinny Magalhaes. Bessette’s resume is slightly less impressive, but he’s an attractive pick simply due to how inconsistent Diego Nunes has looked recently. Nunes has lost three of his last four fights, and is coming off of a quick, nasty knockout loss to Patricio Pitbull at Bellator 99. Bessette isn’t worth a spot in your parlay, but a straight bet on him is far from the worst way you could spend $5 this weekend.

Stay the Hell Away From

Titan FC 27: Matt Riddle (-180) vs. Michael Kuiper (+150)

Remember our “Who Is the Biggest Waste of Potential in MMA History” roundtable? You can pretty much copy and paste what ReX13 wrote about BJ Penn here for my analysis of this fight. On paper, yes, this is Riddle’s fight to lose. But after a year that has consisted of retirement, unretirement, pulling out of fights, and getting fired from Bellator for Riddle, betting on “Deep Waters” this Friday is just as risky as betting on a post-Sonnen Paulo Filho: He may fight like the elite fighter he is, or he may put in the bare minimum effort needed to collect his paycheck, or he may decide to pull out of the fight at the last minute because, you know, whatever. The bottom line here is that this fight is a crap shoot, and neither fighter offers an attractive enough return on your investment to justify the risk. Just say no.

Suggested Stakes for a $50 Wager

The Ultra-Conservative Approach:

$25 on Kim+Hioki+Ricci parlay (returns $20.44)
$20 on Richman+Yamauchi parlay (returns $15.57)
$5 on Shawn Jordan (returns $3.70)

In the likely event that all three bets pay off, you’ll earn a total of $39.71 for your efforts.

The Live Dangerously Approach:

$20 on Richman+Yamauchi+Jordan parlay (returns $41.91)
$20 on Kim+Zayats parlay (returns $53.29)
$5 on Matt Bessette (returns $14.25)
$5 on Croom+Lee parlay (returns $11.33)

I once read that the biggest mistake that novice gamblers make is betting not to lose; whether that’s a quote from a book about Nick the Greek or something I read off of the bathroom wall at a gas station casino is irrelevant. With a little luck, this parlay returns $120.78.

The “Whatever, It’s Mardi Gras #YOLO” Approach:

$25 on Hathaway+Bessette+Gurgel (returns $2,169.50)
$20 on Lee+Zayats (returns $119.65)
$5 on Matt Riddle (returns $2.78)

Semi-Related: It’s common for gambling addicts to find the rush of losing and trying to win back their losses more addictive than actually winning. I figured that was an appropriate disclaimer to use before casually pointing out that this strategy will return $2,291.93. Have a nice day.

Matt Riddle Signs With Titan Fighting Championships, Faces UFC vet Michael Kuiper at TFC 27 [MAYBE BUT PROBABLY NOT]


(After snapping this photo, Riddle would spend the next 15 minutes hitting himself in the head with his shoe.)

I wasn’t sure if I should start this article with a stoner joke or a vagabond joke, so I’ll just combine the two and say that Matt Riddle has more or less evolved into the Kai the Hatchet-Wielding Hitchhiker of the MMA world at this point. For the past year or so, the TUF 7 alum has just sort of drifted through several MMA organizations, handing out stoney life lessons on child-rearing, corporate greed and the employment crisis in America, all while retiring from MMA at least twice in the process.

And while Kai’s story ended in a murder charge, it appears that Riddle is destined for the slightly-more-dignified world of regional MMA (that was a joke, nerds, so please fight the urge to lose your shit in the comments section). News broke earlier today that “Deep Waters” has signed with Titan Fighting Championships — not to be confused with Legacy Fighting Championships, who Riddle almost fought for before Bellator bought out his contract — and will face fellow UFC vet Michael Kuiper in the co-main event of LFC 27 in February.

If I were a gambling man, however, I’d say that you’d be better off placing money on any currently scheduled UFC squash match title fight than on the likelihood of seeing Riddle actually show up for this thing. Although Titan FC CEO Jeff Aronson insists that Riddle is “…being exceptionally cooperative” thus far, he probably just spoke to Riddle after he had smoked a particularly potent strain of Cali Kush. Matter of fact, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Riddle pulls out of this fight tomorrow and claims that he thought he was receiving a role in the next Clash of the Titans movie the entire time.


(After snapping this photo, Riddle would spend the next 15 minutes hitting himself in the head with his shoe.)

I wasn’t sure if I should start this article with a stoner joke or a vagabond joke, so I’ll just combine the two and say that Matt Riddle has more or less evolved into the Kai the Hatchet-Wielding Hitchhiker of the MMA world at this point. For the past year or so, the TUF 7 alum has just sort of drifted through several MMA organizations, handing out stoney life lessons on child-rearing, corporate greed and the employment crisis in America, all while retiring from MMA at least twice in the process.

And while Kai’s story ended in a murder charge, it appears that Riddle is destined for the slightly-more-dignified world of regional MMA (that was a joke, nerds, so please fight the urge to lose your shit in the comments section). News broke earlier today that “Deep Waters” has signed with Titan Fighting Championships — not to be confused with Legacy Fighting Championships, who Riddle almost fought for before Bellator bought out his contract — and will face fellow UFC vet Michael Kuiper in the co-main event of LFC 27 in February.

If I were a gambling man, however, I’d say that you’d be better off placing money on any currently scheduled UFC squash match title fight than on the likelihood of seeing Riddle actually show up for this thing. Although Titan FC CEO Jeff Aronson insists that Riddle is “…being exceptionally cooperative” thus far, he probably just spoke to Riddle after he had smoked a particularly potent strain of Cali Kush. Matter of fact, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Riddle pulls out of this fight tomorrow and claims that he thought he was receiving a role in the next Clash of the Titans movie the entire time.

But for now, Riddle will square off with Kuiper, a 12-3 middleweight out of the Netherlands who dropped 3 out of 4 fights while in the UFC and is currently riding back-to-back guillotine choke losses. But what do you think, Nation? Will Riddle re-retire before ever stepping into the cage, or will he “SMASH! SMASH! SUUH-MAAASH!” Kuiper in his first post-UFC fight?

–J. Jones

CagePotato Databomb #8: Breaking Down the UFC Middleweights by Striking Performance


(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

The UFC Middleweight division has long been ruled by the most feared and successful striker in MMA history, champion Anderson Silva. And perhaps more so than in smaller divisions, striking has been a good predictor of success at Middleweight. So examining this division in core striking performance metrics should provide good insight to how fighters will fare against each other in standup. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.

But first, let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, and look at the winners and losers.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Two fights into his UFC career, cross-trained Dutchman Michael Kuiper has landed 49% of his power head strikes. We’ll see if he can maintain this in his upcoming matchup with veteran brawler Tom Lawlor in Sweden. Honorable mention must be given to Anderson Silva who has maintained 40% accuracy over his lengthy and dominant career. And also noteworthy is Italian boxer, Alessio Sakara, currently on the bench for health reasons.

Energizer Bunny Award: Strikeforce veteran Roger Gracie has been almost doubling the striking output of opponents on his way to a string of submission wins in typical Gracie fashion. Some grapplers use strikes to set up their mat-work, others don’t. Honorable mentions go to former champ Rich Franklin, and Strikeforce champ and crossover contender Luke Rockhold, who each tend to outpace their opponents by over 80%.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: The UFC record holder for knockdowns is Anderson Silva. He is literally the best in the business at dropping dudes. Statistically, when Silva lands a power head strike, there’s a 27% chance it will result in a knockdown, which is just ridiculous. These skills have won him Knockout of the Night honors seven times in the UFC.


(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

The UFC Middleweight division has long been ruled by the most feared and successful striker in MMA history, champion Anderson Silva. And perhaps more so than in smaller divisions, striking has been a good predictor of success at Middleweight. So examining this division in core striking performance metrics should provide good insight to how fighters will fare against each other in standup. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.

But first, let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, and look at the winners and losers.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Two fights into his UFC career, cross-trained Dutchman Michael Kuiper has landed 49% of his power head strikes. We’ll see if he can maintain this in his upcoming matchup with veteran brawler Tom Lawlor in Sweden. Honorable mention must be given to Anderson Silva who has maintained 40% accuracy over his lengthy and dominant career. And also noteworthy is Italian boxer, Alessio Sakara, currently on the bench for health reasons.

Energizer Bunny Award: Strikeforce veteran Roger Gracie has been almost doubling the striking output of opponents on his way to a string of submission wins in typical Gracie fashion. Some grapplers use strikes to set up their mat-work, others don’t. Honorable mentions go to former champ Rich Franklin, and Strikeforce champ and crossover contender Luke Rockhold, who each tend to outpace their opponents by over 80%.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: The UFC record holder for knockdowns is Anderson Silva. He is literally the best in the business at dropping dudes. Statistically, when Silva lands a power head strike, there’s a 27% chance it will result in a knockdown, which is just ridiculous. These skills have won him Knockout of the Night honors seven times in the UFC.

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: Jason MacDonald and the aforementioned Roger Gracie only land 10% of their power head strikes. Perhaps that’s ok, since both guys are grappling specialists. It remains to be seen with Gracie, but MacDonald’s lack of standup skills has put him on the wrong end of Knockout of the Night awards in the past.

Starnes Award for Inaction: While Michael Kuiper has been very accurate so far, he also been very much a counter striker. He only had half the total striking output of his opponents to date. Some notable grapplers also show up on the far left, like Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Rousimar Palhares. Jacare will have his hand full with the streaking Cypriot, Costa Philippou, while Palhares is still recovering from a beatdown from bomber Hector Lombard.

Smallest Ball(s) Award: Only 12 of the fighters shown have yet to score a knockdown in the UFC. But Jason MacDonald has yet to do so despite over 80 minutes of Octagon time.

Also Noteworthy

The high frequency of the red bubbles shows how successful Southpaws have been in the UFC Middleweight division. Twelve of the 44 fighters shown in the graph are left-handed, about three times the baseline rate for the population at large.

The Middleweights also pack a punch. The fighters shown above have recorded 114 knockdowns in their time in UFC and Strikeforce cages. Amazingly, Anderson Silva owns 17 of those.

Like other divisions, Middleweights show the same tradeoff between volume and accuracy. Counter-strikers tend to be more accurate, but must sacrifice volume while evading opponents, which is dangerous on judges’ cards. And high volume, forward pressing fighters tend not to land with as high accuracy.

This weekend at UFC on Fuel TV 8, watch for a clash between the heavy-handed Hector Lombard, and seasoned counter-striker Yushin Okami. If Lombard wants to test Okami’s chin, he’ll have to improve his movement to cut off the cage and get close. The matchup will certainly have implications on the UFC rankings for the division.

Only two divisions left to look at. Next week we’ll see how Georges St-Pierre stacks up with the rest of UFC Welterweights, and then we’ll look at the big boys.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Middleweights is about 26%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155. Some of these fighters competed in other weight classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed. Fighters with only one fight or less than 15 minutes of fight time were not included in the graph.

For more on the science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter and on Facebook. See more MMA analytical research at www.fightnomics.com. Raw data was provided by FightMetric.