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TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak.

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann

Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak while while Jake Ellenberger is riding a six fight win streak after losing his opening appearance in the the UFC. The winner of this fight will establish himself as a title contender in the 170 lb division where Georges St. Pierre awaits interim champion Carlos Condit. Whoever earns the victory on Friday night should be no more than one fight away from a shot at the belt.

Kampmann pulled out a last minute submission via guillotine choke over Thiago Alves in his last appearance in the cage. The fight had been extremely competitive up to that point with Alves having a slight advantage on my scorecard in each of the first two rounds. The third round would have been close as well if not for Kampmann’s timely submission. In his recent fights, the “Hitman” has shown improved wrestling. He was able to avoid Rick Story’s takedowns for the most part at UFC 139 and when he did end up on the ground, he was able to get back to his feet quickly. He even managed to take Story down in that fight. Kampmann will once again be facing an opponent with a strong wrestling background in Ellenberger. I expect Kampann to use his newly improved wrestling to keep the fight standing and use his best weapon, which is his pinpoint Muay Thai striking, to outpoint Ellenberger on the feet. In order to accomplish that goal, Kampmann will need to utilize quick movement to stay away from Ellenberger’s power and land quick combinations. If he can time Ellenberger’s powerful right hand, he might be able to find the range for counter striking. But all of that will be difficult to accomplish against one of the toughest tests he has faced in his career thus far.

Jake Ellenberger is a world class athlete just now coming into the prime of his career at age twenty seven. He has everything a fighter needs to be title contender in the UFC. He has one punch KO power in both hands. He has a collegiate wrestling background. He trains with a great team. He has plenty of experience. Simply put, this is his moment. A win, especially an impressive one, would give put him right in the middle of the title picture that currently features St. Pierre and Condit as well as Johnny Hendricks after his recent defeat of Josh Koscheck. Ellenberger’s last loss came against Condit in 2009 via split decision and since then, he has reeled off six consecutive wins with his most recent coming against Diego Sanchez in February. Four of those wins came via (T)KO. He has scary power in his hands and over the past year or so, he has evolved from a wrestler with power into an impressively well-rounded mixed martial artist. A lot of fighters have power but Ellenberger has honed his stand-up to a degree where he now has the technical skill to consistently land his power shots. On Saturday, he will face one of the best strikers in the welterweight division. I expect him to stand with Kampmann initially and hope to land a power shot while avoiding his opponent’s combinations. If he begins to consistently lose the exchanges on the feet, look for him to go back to his wrestling and try to put Kampmann on his back. But that won’t be easy as Kampmann is difficult to take down and has an excellent submission game once the fight hits the mat.

Ellenberger is the clear favorite in this fight at -225 with Kampann coming in at +185. I expect this fight to take place mostly on the feet and in theory, that would favor Kampmann who is the more technical striker. The problem with that is that Ellenberger is also a good striker with the power to end the fight instantaneously. Clearly, the oddsmakers give the combination of Ellenberger’s power and his potential to take the fight to the ground and control from top position the advantage in this fight and a (T)KO finish for Ellenberger seems to be the most logical outcome for this fight. But if he can’t find Kampmann’s chin, the “Hitman” could pull off the upset by using his technical Muay Thai game to earn a decision.

By Alan Wells

TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira..

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins

In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira. Both fighters are coming off of rebound victories in their previous appearance with Brookins defeating Vagner Rocha in February and Oliveira defeating Eric Wisely in January.

Brookins is a well rounded fighter who has shown the ability to finish with both strikes and submissions. He seems to lull opponents to sleep with his calm approach and unassuming personality. I would imagine fighters have a difficult time working up any animosity against Brookins who is one of the more humble and peaceful competitors in the UFC. But despite his personality, he has finishing instincts as he showed in his previous fight when he took out Rocha with ground and pound in the first round. Brookins seems to be confident wherever the fight goes so I expect him to stand with Oliveira until he feels threatened. If he starts to lose in the standup game, look for him to try to push Oliveira against the fence and turn the fight into a dirtier game of clinch work and scrambles. Oliveira appears to be the more talented fighter but that hasn’t stopped Brookins in the past and look for him to do whatever he can to take his young opponent out of his gameplan.

Oliveira is one of the most exciting young fighters in the UFC. He burst on to the scene at age 20 with an explosive armbar submission victory over Darren Elkins. After another victory, he lost two out of three fights against title caliber fighters Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone with a no decision against Nik Lentz due to an illegal knee sandwiched in between. I question why the UFC was putting him against that type of competition at age twenty one but it may turn out to be for the best as he has decided to move down to the featherweight division and was dominant in his first fight at that weight against Wisely. He made quick work of his overmatched opponent with a ridiculous calf slicer that most fight fans including myself had never seen used to finish a fight. This fight represents an appropriate step up in competition. He should have the advantage over Brookins wherever the fight goes but he will need to stay tight with his technique to earn the victory. Look for Oliveira to utilize his excellent striking game while being perfectly willing to display his grappling gift should Brookins decide to take the fight in that direction. Either way, Oliveira has the potential to give the fans an explosive finish.

Oliveira is a solid favorite at -200 with Brookins the underdog at +170. Oliveira has the talent advantage everywhere in this fight and I’m actually surprised the line isn’t a little more one-sided but I don’t blame the bookmakers for being wary of underestimating Brookins who has a habit of upsetting more talented opponents. Oliveira should have opportunities early against Brookins but if he doesn’t take advantage or if he gets sloppy or overconfident, Brookins can steal this fight. A longer fight benefits Brookins and if he can turn this into an ugly scrap with lots of close fighting against the cage, he might be able to grind his way to a decision.

By Alan Wells

UFC 146 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir On Saturday night, the UFC’s highly anticipated all-heavyweight card arrives headlined by a title fight between champion Junior Dos Santos and challenger Frank Mir. With the unsurprising suspension of.

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Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

On Saturday night, the UFC’s highly anticipated all-heavyweight card arrives headlined by a title fight between champion Junior Dos Santos and challenger Frank Mir. With the unsurprising suspension of Alistair Overeem for PED use causing major upheaval to the card, Frank Mir steps in to gain another shot at being a UFC champion. Unfortunately for him, he’ll be facing someone who presents a skill set he is ill-equipped to handle.

Junior Dos Santos has been plowing through the UFC’s heavyweight division since his arrival in 2009 reeling off nine straight victories with seven of those victories being finished by KO or TKO and six of those seven finishes coming in the first round. Only the chins of Shane Carwin and Roy Nelson were able to withstand the dynamite in Dos Santos’ hands and he’ll be looking to test Mir’s chin as early as possible. Dos Santos’ strategy isn’t complicated and it doesn’t take an expert to explain it. He has as much power as anyone in the division combined with excellent quickness and agility that allows him to explode into fight finishing combinations. He throws mainly two or three punch combinations and only needs to make contact with one of those punches to earn a victory. His boxing isn’t the most technical in MMA but is incredibly effective and he will be relying on it to defend his championship at UFC 146.

Frank Mir has four wins and two losses in his last six fights with the losses being knockouts suffered at the hands Shane Carwin and Brock Lesnar. In his last fight, he was knocked down by Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera before coming back to finish with one of the most impressive submissions ever in the heavyweight division. That history does not suggest success against a fighter like Dos Santos. He is going to have to find a way to avoid his opponent’s strikes and get the fight to the ground. That will be tough to do because Dos Santos will have the quickness advantage and has shown solid takedown defense in his fights thus far. Mir’s best chance of getting this fight to the ground might be to play possum if Dos Santos lands a glancing blow and try to get the champion to follow him to the ground in an attempt to finish. If Mir can somehow get the fight to the mat, he clearly has the skills to finish and Dos Santos would be wise to avoid that scenario at all costs. Even if he scores a knockdown, Dos Santos should stay on his feet and wait for Mir to get back up before engaging again. Even a stunned Frank Mir has the skills to submit Dos Santos if he decides to play the ground game.

Junior Dos Santos comes into this fight as a huge favorite at -550 with Mir the underdog at +425. That should tell you everything you need to know about this fight. Anything other than a first round knockout by Dos Santos will be a surprise but Frank Mir has surprised us before. While a win does seem unlikely, the chaos of a fight can lead to unexpected situations and if Dos Santos finds himself on the mat with Frank Mir, this fight will get interesting instantaneously. But if it stays on the feet, Dos Santos should be able to finish his opponent and retain the championship.

Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva

In a matchup of fighters trying to rebound from a loss, former UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez takes on Strikeforce import Antonio Silva. After losing the belt in his last fight, Velasquez will be looking to take the first step toward earning the opportunity to win back his belt by defeating a tough opponent in Silva.

Silva has made a career of being one of the best heavyweights in the world who hasn’t been tested by top competition. He has impressive victories on his resume over legends Andre Arlovski and Fedor Emelianenko but both of those victories came when those fighters were clearly out of their prime. He has three wins and two losses in his last five fights with the two losses coming against Fabricio Werdum and Daniel Cormier. Based on his recent history, Silva appears to be a UFC caliber heavyweight who will struggle against the top tier of the division. But he will have a huge opportunity to prove that perception wrong when he gets the chance to fight former champion Cain Velasquez on Saturday night. With all the shuffling following Overeem’s PED suspension, Silva has moved up the card and is now preparing for the biggest fight of his career. A win over Velasquez would propel him immediately into title contention. If he wants to do that, he is going to need to keep the fight standing and hope to outstrike the former champion. Velasquez has shown a solid chin in his career but Silva has the power to test it and even finish the fight if he gets the opportunity. But while looking to strike, Silva will have to defend against some of the best takedowns in the division and that is where he is likely to struggle.

Velasquez will likely employ the strategy that won him the belt and try to put Silva on his back early and often. From there, he will look to land his unique style of ground and pound. Having already felt the belt around his waist, Velasquez will be eager to get back to the pinnacle of the sport and he will come out motivated to prove that he deserves that opportunity sooner rather than later. Before being stopped by Dos Santos in his last fight, Velasquez had run through the UFC heavyweight division beating all seven of his opponents with six of those wins coming by TKO or KO. He might not be able to finish Silva within the three rounds allotted for the fight but if he sticks to his gameplan, a definitive decision is well within his reach. The only danger he faces in this fight is if he gets caught with a big punch from Silva or somehow ends up on his back with Silva on top. But based on the significant wrestling advantage Velasquez holds going into this fight, that scenario seems highly unlikely.

As expected, Velasquez is a heavy favorite going into the fight at -400 with Silva coming in at +325. Silva will be looking to land one big punch or find his way into top position somehow and land big strikes from there in order to pull off the upset. The more likely outcome is that Velasquez controls the fight on the feet, puts Silva on his back and grinds his way to a victory. The length of the fight is likely to depend on how long Silva can withstand the onslaught he’ll face once he ends up on his back. But if Silva can put his huge right hand on the former champion’s chin, anything can happen.

UFC 146 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson.

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson has lost three out of his last four with two of those losses coming to the fighters competing for the championship in the night’s headliner. Herman has split his two UFC fights with his loss coming to Stefan Struve, who is also competing on Saturday night’s card.

Nelson’s last several fights have mainly taken place on the feet and his main accomplishment has been proving that he is almost impossible to knock out. He took punches from Junior Dos Santos that no one else has been able to absorb. But a good chin isn’t enough to win fights and losing three out of four isn’t the way to stay in the UFC. Nelson will be fighting for his UFC life on Saturday night and fortunately for him, he will be facing a fighter he is capable of defeating. Expect Nelson to attempt to show the full range of his game on Saturday night as he should have the advantage wherever the fight takes place. Herman will have the height advantage but that’s nothing new for Nelson who will close the distance and throw power punches. Once on the inside, Nelson should look to put Herman on his back and work his submission game. Nelson is excellent from the top position and has the skill set to finish this fight early.

Herman will be looking to improve on his previous performance when he was stopped by Stefan Struve after an uninspiring eight minutes in the octagon. He looked sluggish against Struve and spent most of the fight standing still in front of his opponent eventually paying for his lack of movement by being dropped with an uppercut and finished with ground and pound. Herman is a much better fighter than he showed that night and he should be looking to prove that against Nelson. A win against Nelson would put him back on the right track while a loss would set him back significantly. He will look to keep the fight standing as he won’t want to grapple with his more accomplished opponent. Look for him to use his reach advantage and keep Nelson on the outside with jabs and kicks. If Nelson looks to close the distance, expect Herman to clinch and use his knees. The task is a difficult one but if Herman is focused, he can pull off the upset.

Nelson is favored in this fight at -225 with Herman the underdog at +185. Nelson should be able to pull out a win by outstriking Herman, putting him on his back and looking for submissions. Herman’s best hope is to keep Nelson on the outside and pick him apart with strikes. Unfortunately for Herman, Nelson is almost impossible to knock out so if he wants a victory, he’s going to have to earn it by winning a decision.

Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic

In a battle of undefeated heavyweights, former Strikeforce fighter Shane Del Rosario makes his UFC debut against Stipe Miocic who has two wins in the UFC over Joey Beltran and Philip De Fries. Despite being undefeated thus far in their careers, neither fighter has looked overwhelmingly impressive and this fight will be the biggest test either has faced.

Del Rosario won all three of his Strikeforce fights on Challengers cards over Brandon Cash, Lolohea Mahe and Lavar Johnson. He finished all three fights in the first round showing the ability to close with either strikes or submissions. None of those fighters presented a well rounded game to compete with Del Rosario’s skill set and against Miocic, he’ll be facing a more complete fighter. Miocic showed showed powerful if not technically perfect hands in his previous fight against Philip De Fries. Look for Del Rosario to start by striking with Miocic and try to take advantage of the openings he showed in that fight. But as soon as he feels threatened, expect Rosario to try to get the fight to the ground and work his submission game from the top position.

Miocic will more than likely look to keep the fight on the feet and rely on his boxing to try to earn the victory. Lavar Johnson had Del Rosario in trouble and while Miocic might not have the raw power that Johnson has, he’s more technical and could use that accuracy to finish the fight if he gets an opportunity. He will need to use his wrestling defensively in this fight to keep the fight standing. If he can use leg kicks to slow Rosario and then attack with punches, he’ll have a chance at pulling off the upset.

Del Rosario comes into this fight as the favorite at -200 with Miocic getting +170. Look for Del Rosario to strike early and use the clinch to get Miocic to the ground. Once there, he will attempt to create openings with ground and pound to attack with submissions. Miocic will be looking to do the opposite and keep the fight standing to utilize his boxing. Del Rosario should have the superior all around game and earn the victory but if he gets sloppy on his feet, Miocic could take advantage and steal the win.

Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve

Saturday night’s opening fight will feature a fight that is almost guaranteed not to make it out of the first round as Lavar Johnson’s faces Stefan Struve. This is the type of fight that makes fans wonder if UFC matchmaker Joe Silva is laughing maniacally in a dark office somewhere at the potential train wreck he has set in motion. Struve has shown a propensity to leave his notoriously weak chin up in the air and Johnson has some of the most powerful punches in the division. If Johnson’s fists touch Struve’s chin, this fight will be over.

Struve is one of the most interesting fighters in the heavyweight division. At 6’11,” he is the tallest legitimate fighter in the world and he uses that height to his advantage by kicking his opponents from distances where they can’t even come close to reaching him. He has shown knockout power in his strikes and has an excellent Dutch muay thai game that he has used to finish several UFC fights. He also uses his long legs to his advantage on the ground where he can latch on to chokes from positions where fighters aren’t used to having to defend against them. His height combined with his technique provides a unique challenge for every opponent he face. His one major weakness thus far in his career has been his chin. Once fighters get inside his outrageous reach, they have been able to consistently drop him with punches. To Struve’s credit, he has survived several knockdowns and fought back to earn victories but that will not be a likely outcome on Saturday night. If he wants to defeat Johnson, he needs to avoid the striking game and get this fight to the mat quickly where he has a significant advantage. If he can do that, he should be able to finish with a submission shortly thereafter.

Lavar Johnson has scary power in his hands. He has finished his last two opponents with punches and if Struve decides to engage in a striking match, he will likely face the same fate. Johnson will look to force the issue and go after Struve early in this fight. He has a limited ground game and he will be in trouble if he finds himself grappling with Struve. Expect Johnson to be swinging for Struve’s chin from the opening bell and even if he grazes it, that could be enough to finish the fight. His goal will be to control the octagon and push Struve against the cage where he can use uppercuts and short hooks to drop his opponent and finish the fight.

The bookmakers have this fight at almost a pick ‘em with Struve favored at -125 and Johnson the “underdog” at +105. That’s exactly where the line should be because if Johnson lands a punch, the fight could be over in an instant but if Struve can get the fight to the ground, it could end just as quickly. This fight lends itself to an early finish and both fighters have a distinct route to earning the victory. The outcome will depend on whether Struve can get the fight to the ground before Johnson lands a punch.

Strikeforce – Barnett vs. Cormier: Post Fight Recap

Daniel Cormier defeats Josh Barnett via Unanimous Decision Last night, Daniel Cormier officially arrived at the top tier of the heavyweight division. Josh Barnett is one of the top five heavyweights in the world and.

Daniel Cormier defeats Josh Barnett via Unanimous Decision

Last night, Daniel Cormier officially arrived at the top tier of the heavyweight division. Josh Barnett is one of the top five heavyweights in the world and Cormier completely dominated him for five rounds. Cormier was never in trouble at any point in the fight. He controlled the striking game despite Barnett’s huge reach advantage. He closed the distance easily and used his quickness to outstrike Barnett on the inside. He consistently landed combinations damaging Barnett over and over with his uppercut. Any time he felt his opponent building a bit of momentum on the feet, he used his Olympic caliber wrestling to put Barnett on his back and dominated the fight on the ground as well. Barnett’s only opportunity to win the fight came when he latched on to Cormier’s leg and attempted a heel hook but he was never able to get a decent grip and Cormier slipped away easily. Considering the UFC’s history of handling organizations it purchases, one would have to expect that Cormier will make his way into the octagon for his next fight because the Strikeforce heavyweight division is basically non-existent at this point and Cormier is one of the fastest rising fighters in MMA. Considering Barnett’s history, his future is much less clear but provided his post fight PED testing comes up clean, he has earned another chance to compete at the highest level.

Gilbert Melendez defeats Josh Thompson via Unanimous Decision

Gilbert Melendez nearly lost his belt last night. I scored the first three rounds for Melendez with the first round being the closest of the three. But Josh Thompson dominated the last two rounds and had the fight continued past the fifth round, Thompson would have won the fight. By the end of the fight, I was looking for ways to justify scoring the fight in favor of Thompson but the scoring system is what it is and based on the criteria as they exist, Melendez was the winner. But that didn’t stop one of the judges from giving the fight to Thompson and even though it was the wrong way to score the fight, Thompson deserved the split decision. The first three rounds were basically a boxing match with Melendez barely getting the best of Thompson in the exchanges. He repeatedly stuffed the challenger’s takedown attempts and landed a takedown of his own to seal the second round. After the fight, Melendez claimed that he knew he won the first three rounds and that he started to “cupcake it” after that. If that’s the case, his face payed for his lack of effort. Over the last two rounds, Thompson began to dominate the exchanges and his cardio was clearly better than the champion’s. Thompson landed a right hand that proved to be the most powerful strike of the fight early in the fourth round. At the end of the round, he took Melendez’s back and in the most dangerous moment of the fight for either fighter, attempted to finish with a rear naked choke. The fifth round was more of the same with Thompson’s cardio continuing to be the difference and Melendez unable to keep pace. After the fight, Thompson seemed surprised at the decision but it was really the only one that could have been made. In his post-fight interview, Melendez tried to explain his performance by saying that he had a hard time getting motivated to train as hard as he normally would for the fight because he felt that he had nothing to gain by beating Thompson again. Whatever the case, Thompson proved that he deserved a third chance at Melendez and he also proved that he is back as a contender at the highest level of the lightweight division.

Rafael Cavalcante defeats Mike Kyle via 1st Round Guillotine Choke

Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante made a statement with an explosive first round stoppage of Mike Kyle. He hurt Kyle with a knee early in the round and latched onto a guillotine while Kyle was trying to recover. Kyle tried to slam his way out of it but only succeeded in pushing the choke in deeper and was forced to tap. The performance by Feijao was impressive but we did not get to see if he had improved the main deficiency in his game, which has been his cardio. With the heavier divisions in Strikeforce currently in flux as the UFC cherry picks fighters to bolster its roster, the future for both of these fighters is unknown but I expect that Feijao will eventually make his way to the octagon.

Chris Spang defeats Nah-Shon Burrell via 1st Round TKO

In a matchup of up and coming welterweights, Chris Spang scored an impressive knockout over Nah-Shon Burrell. Burrell came out more aggressive throwing looping right hands and controlling the center of the cage. Spang seemed to struggle initially with the distance and unorthodox style of Burrell but once he figured it out, he closed the distance quickly and started landing combinations. Spang then landed a big left hand that hurt Burrell but didn’t drop him. Instead of going crazy as one might expect from a young fighter, Spang stayed under control and continued to throw combinations of punches and knees. He battered Burrell around the cage who showed a great heart and chin in trying to stay in the fight despite being hit with several huge strikes. Eventually, Burrell could not stay on his feet and Josh Rosenthal stepped in to mercifully end the fight. Burrell will need to study his technique and come back with a tighter defensive game. He clearly has the athleticism to compete in MMA but he has now had two consecutive losing performances in Strikeforce and needs to come back strong if he hopes to continue competing at this level. Spang, on the other hand, found an opponent willing to engage in a striking match with him and he showed that he’s dangerous in that aspect of the game. If he continues to develop his overall game, he has a chance to make an impact in the 170 pound division.