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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 160: Velasquez vs. Silva II’ Edition

(Looks like this year’s harvest will be even better. Sanguis Bibimus! Corpus Edimus! Photo via Getty Images.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Cain Velasquez ~~will attempt to make~~ WILL MAKE the first title defense of his career in his second term as UFC heavyweight champion when he rematches Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, Mark Hunt ~~will look to continue~~ WILL CONTINUE his Cinderella run in the co-main event against former HW champ Junior Dos Santos, and ~~a possible #1 contender~~ the next lightweight title contender WILL BE DECIDED in the sure-to-be-brawl between Gray Maynard and T.J. Grant. Whew.

With one of the strongests undercards (on paper) in what feels like an eternity, UFC 160 is primed to become, at the very least, a night chock full of wild finishes and entertaining scraps that will leave *no fan* unsatisfied. I really hope I’m not overselling it. Anyway, join us now as we try to underline the right favorites and highlight some possible underdogs in the hopes of finding that ever-elusive payout for UFC 160. The gambling lines, as always, come courtesy of BestFightOdds.

Undercard bouts:

Brian Bowles (-280) vs. George Roop (+240)

Having only lost twice, to Urijah Faber and injuryweight world champion Dominick Cruz, Bowles comes in as a healthy -280 favorite (and rightfully so) against the woefully inconsistent George Roop. Roop is coming off a less than convincing win over Reuben Duran in his return to bantamweight, whereas his opponent is looking to get back on the short list of top contenders in the division. Bowles should be able to close the distance on Roop and get this fight to the mat, where we may see a submission victory for the former WEC champion. Bowles makes the parlay at -140 and the prop bet that he is able to end things before the final bell.

(Looks like this year’s harvest will be even better. Sanguis Bibimus! Corpus Edimus! Photo via Getty Images.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Undercard bouts:

Brian Bowles (-280) vs. George Roop (+240)

Dennis Bermudez (-270) vs. Max Holloway (+230)

With the exception of one bout on the main card (we’ll get to that later), all signs point to a Fight of the Night-earning war when these two talented strikers mix it up on Saturday. Holloway at +215 or better is quite the enticing underdog pick, as he has the potential to avoid the blitzkrieg attack of Bermudez by using his height and reach advantage to counter the ultra-aggressive TUF 14 runner up. Bermudez may very well catch Holloway early, but at -280 to win, the prop that Bermudez wins inside the distance at +200 may be the best option for a lone bet here.

Main Card PPV:

Donald Cerrone (-300) vs. K.J. Noons (+250)

K.J. Noons is coming off a controversial loss to Ryan Couture in his last Strikeforce outing and will be looking to right the ship in his Octagon debut against the -300 territory Donald Cerrone. K.J. has power in his hands for sure, but Cerrone has a more complete stand up game and will not make the same mistake he did against Diaz (trying to simply outbox his opponent). Cowboy will most likely attack K.J.’s lead leg and use his reach to keep Noons frustrated and swinging for the fences from the outside. Cerrone is parlay bound and the prop that Cerrone wins by decision at +175 is a solid option, as Noons is notoriously hard to finish.

Gray Maynard (-210) vs. T.J. Grant (+175)

Along with the Holloway/Bermudez tilt, this fight has the potential to find itself as a candidate for FOTN. Undefeated at lightweight in the UFC, Grant has put together 4 straight wins in increasingly brilliant fashion. With Gray potentially fighting off ring rust, the makings for an upset are very real. Grant has not been stopped in over 4 years and this includes a bout with Johny Hendricks, where T.J. was simply overpowered in a competitive fight. Maynard is undoubtedly one of the strongest lightweights in the division, but Grant looked ultra impressive against Matt Wiman (another powerful lightweight) and while he may not finish Gray, this fight will surely be close right until the end. Prop that fight goes the distance is around -205 and may be the safest option.

Glover Teixeira (-300) vs. James Te Huna (+250)

Glover Teixeira comes in as a sizable favorite to score his 19th win in a row (!) against the hard-hitting and harder to take down Te Huna. While Glover beat Rampage convincingly in his last outing, it is hard to determine how serious Jackson took their bout; this may be the first true test for Glover in the UFC. All signs point to Glover winning this fight, but he probably won’t want to turn this into a potentially lethal slugfest and may be content to show off his BJJ prowess. Just sit back and enjoy this one, folks.

Junior Dos Santos (-450) vs. Mark Hunt (+360)

JDS was a -350 favorite going into his fight with Roy Nelson, this time Junior is a -450 favorite going into his fight with Mark Hunt, who is comparable to Roy in the sense that they posses heavy hands and enjoy separating their opponents from consciousness. Most likely though, much like Roy Nelson, Hunt may find JDS to be too quick and too technical with his stand up, which may leave Hunt on the wrong end of a boxing clinic. JDS will be looking to finish this fight and get back to the top of the HW division, whether or not he gets caught by Hunt in the process is yet to be determined, but -170 that this fight does not go the distance is alluring. JDS for the win makes the parlay.

(Ed. Note: Sorry, I gotta step in here. Mark Hunt because PRIDE. – Danga)

Cain Velasquez (-800) vs. Antonio Silva (+550)

Considering their first encounter, it would be hard to imagine that “Bigfoot” could do any worse this time around against Cain. However, as a +550 underdog, the people have spoken once again and have given very little consideration to Silva pulling off the upset here. A line like -750 does not impact a small parlay, so much like with the UFC 159 main event, the prop section offers some interesting proposals that could pay off nicely. “Fight Does Not Start Round 4″ is at -285 and pays roughly the same as many favorites to win. For the true gambler, placing money on Cain to win in the 2nd or 3rd rounds pays +300 and +500 respectively, so splitting your money on those props (i.e. a $10 bet on each) might pay off nicely if Cain is able to avoid disaster. Cain most likely wins and Bigfoot most likely bleeds…..again.

Parlay 1
Bowles + Cerrone + JDS (Ed note: Lalalalalalala I can’t hear you!!!)

Parlay 2
Stephens + Bowles + JDS

Props
-Velasquez/Silva does not start rd.4
-Cerrone wins by decision
-Bowles wins inside the distance
-FOTN Holloway/Bermudez

Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns on this weekend’s card in the comments section. But mainly, enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Gambling Addiction Enabler: The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale Edition

On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.

MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)

If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)

If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…

The Main Event: Without disrespecting the man too much, let’s just say that Scott Jorgensen is only in the main event because Urijah Faber needed somebody to fight. A win for Faber is the most likely scenario here…but man, are those odds bloated or what? Keep in mind that Faber has been relatively inconsistent since his WEC heyday, and has been alternating neatly between wins and losses during his UFC career. (Both Faber and Jorgensen are coming off of submission victories, by the way.) At -435, putting money on the California Kid is definitely not worth the risk. On the other hand, a small bet on Jorgensen (+375) might be. Consider it.

The Co-Main Event: I have to admit, the Uriah Hall hype train has swept me off my feet and I like it, baby. I think Hall is a lock against Kelvin Gastelum, and it’s not just because of his explosive power or flashy Tekken-kicks — it’s also his maturity, his confidence, and his experience edge. Of the five opponents on Gastelum’s professional record, only one had a winning record when they fought. Meanwhile, Hall has already been in the cage with UFC-level talents like Chris Weidman and Costa Philippou, and learned valuable lessons from those fights. Gastelum is an incredible raw talent, but he needs seasoning; Hall already has it. Betting on Uriah won’t be profitable, but it’s a fairly safe investment.

The Ladies: It’s somewhat surprising that Cat Zingano — who isn’t a familiar Strikeforce crossover — is a slight favorite over a known quantity like Miesha Tate. Zingano certainly looks the part, and Rose Namajunas told us that she’s a stud wrestler and rapidly improving striker, in addition to her BJJ base. But until Cat experiences her first fight on a big stage against a top talent like Tate, I wouldn’t suggest betting on her. Small money on Miesha is probably the way to go.

Another Good ‘Dog: If Cole Miller (+155) can bring the fight to the ground, Bart Palaszewski is in deep shit. That is all.

Proceed With Caution: Six months ago, Browne vs. Gonzaga would have been a no-brainer. Travis Browne was the nasty up-and-comer, and Gabriel Gonzaga was the irrelevant can-crusher. Then, Browne blew a hammy while firing some ridiculously unnecessary jumping front kicks against Bigfoot Silva, and Gonzaga went and choked out Ben Rothwell — his greatest UFC victory since his infamous head kick knockout of Mirko Cro Cop. So is Napao back? And will Browne keep it simple this time, for God’s sake? My gut tells me that Browne has this in the bag, but my mind tells me to skip it, just in case.

The Official CagePotato “Safe” Parlay: $5 on Faber+Hall+Tate+Barnatt returns a $22.77 profit on BetUS.

The Unofficial CagePotato “So Crazy It Just Might Work?” Parlay: $5 on Jorgensen+Gonzaga+Casey+Marunde+Miller+Sicilia returns a $5,431.40 profit.

Live ‘Dog Alert: Dan Henderson Is a 2-1 Betting Underdog Against Lyoto Machida

(By the way, he’s supposed to be Danny Zuko from Grease. I’m guessing these costumes were not his idea.)

Dan Henderson fans, get your cash out. MMA Mania gives us the heads-up that Hendo is as high as a +196 underdog for his UFC 157 fight against Lyoto Machida on February 23rd. (In other words, a $100 bet on Henderson would return $196 in profit if he wins.) Considering that Henderson is coming back from a knee injury, it’s understandable that the oddsmakers don’t have complete faith in him. But considering how dangerous Henderson has looked in his last four fights — the epic war with Shogun Rua at UFC 139, and his knockouts of Fedor, Feijao, and Babalu in Strikeforce — it still feels like he’s being sold short.

Then again, you have to consider how Henderson matches up with Machida specifically. Sure, Hendo can turn your lights off with that H-Bomb if you stand in front of him, but he might have a problem with Machida’s skill at evasion and his perfectly-timed attacks from unorthodox angles. Are the odds juicy enough to warrant a bet on the old ‘dog?

In a related story, Ronda Rousey — who opened as a ridiculous -1500 favorite against Liz Carmouche — is currently sitting at a still-ridiculous -1050.

(By the way, he’s supposed to be Danny Zuko from Grease. I’m guessing these costumes were not his idea.)

In a related story, Ronda Rousey — who opened as a ridiculous -1500 favorite against Liz Carmouche — is currently sitting at a still-ridiculous -1050.

UFC Squash Match Alert: Ronda Rousey Opened as a 15-1 Favorite Against That Other Girl

(Keep it together, Ronda. Never go full Sally Field. / Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com)

According to BestFightOdds, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey opened as a -1500 betting favorite against her UFC 157 challenger Liz Carmouche, who opened at +700. Since then, the odds have leveled out somewhat; SportBet currently has the line at a more reasonable -1110/+690, which means that you’d need to put up $1,110 in order to turn a $100 profit on Ronda if she wins, while betting $100 on Liz would…you know what, I’m not even going to finish that sentence. Please do not bet money on this fight.

The current odds make Rousey vs. Carmouche rank among the most lopsided UFC matchups of all time, which comes as no surprise — before the booking was announced, many UFC fans may not have even been aware of the existence of Liz Carmouche, who is an unknown quantity to everyone except hardcore fans of women’s MMA and Strikeforce. Plus, Carmouche fell short both times she faced champion-level competition, suffering a decision loss to Sarah Kaufman in July 2011 and a submission loss to Marloes Coenen four months prior, although Carmouche was winning that fight until she was stopped.

(Keep it together, Ronda. Never go full Sally Field. / Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com)

None of Rousey’s previous matches have turned out to be very competitive, and it’s hard to imagine that this one will be any different. (If Liz gets armbarred in the second round as opposed to the first round, she should immediately be ranked the #2 women’s bantamweight in the world.) Is that necessarily a bad thing? A string of highlight-reel finishes from a charismatic champion can go a long way in drawing casual fans to women’s MMA. Think of it this way: Mike Tyson became famous by rolling over outmatched palookas, not by clawing out victories in gritty 12-round wars — and converted hordes of young people to boxing fandom in the process.

Not that we’re calling Ronda Rousey the Mike Tyson of women’s MMA (at least not yet). But maybe a good squash match is just what the sport needs right now.

Book Review: Betting on MMA By Jason Rothman Provides a Succinct Yet Thorough Examination of “Value Investing” and Its Relation to MMA Gambling

By Jared Jones

I appreciate honesty in writing. I am also a tremendous hypocrite, which is why I often resort to trickery, tomfoolery, and outright fabrications when discussing this thing we call MMA with you Taters. I’m less a blogger, more a magician — a line that I would never suggest you use to pick up women with — and more often than not I resort to a near constant influx of red herrings and other intentional misdirects to even make it through a post. But amidst all the deceit and double-crosses, I do actually manage to squeeze in a few instances of genuine honesty with you readers, more often than not in the Gambling Addiction Enabler pieces I contribute when Dan “Get Off Me” George doesn’t feel up to it.

So when I turned to the introductory page of Jason Rothman’s Betting on MMA to find the statements located directly below, I was pretty much assured that I’d be getting exactly what I wanted out of his look into the world of MMA gambling.

This book is about making money from betting on the sport of mixed martial arts. And that is the only thing this book is about.

If you do not know what a triangle choke is, then this book is not for you.

And indeed, Rothman’s guide analyzing everything from money line odds to fighter attributes to the power of hype makes no attempt to wow you with its prose. The writing style, though sometimes cryptic and a bit repetitive, is simply a means to an end. That end is making you money, and although I have yet to put any of Rothman’s teachings into practice, I can assure you that Betting on MMA offers enough genuine insight and real-life examples to make it a must own for any MMA fan who fancies themselves a gambler.

By Jared Jones

This book is about making money from betting on the sport of mixed martial arts. And that is the only thing this book is about.

If you do not know what a triangle choke is, then this book is not for you.

It isn’t often that a book cover can serve as a manifest for the book itself, but Rothman (or perhaps his pubisher) has succeeded in that right as well. The cover (pictured above) features Phil Baroni in a classic fist-pose with Warren Buffet, which although clearly photoshopped, more or less dictates the two themes that will be prevalent throughout the book: Brutal honesty and business savvy.

The book itself is divided into three segments: “The Fundamentals,” “MMA Speculating,” and two appendices providing the aforementioned real-life examples of Rothman’s theories being put into practice. Using the principles of “value investing” as laid out by multibillionaire Warren Buffet, Rothman does a great job of convincing his audience that wagering on an MMA match is much easier than it looks.

“The Fundamentals” places most of its emphasis on a mathematical process of analyzing a given fighter’s chances based on their betting lines, which Rothman dubs “Handicapping Fights.” Without giving too much away, Rothman lays out a simple method of comparing/measuring both the current odds of a given fighter against the approximate chances of victory you give said fighter to determine whether or not there is a large enough “margin of safety” to place a bet. Coming from someone who usually relied on only the latter to determine his fight picks, this section is an ingenious bit of information that will surely affect my gambling methods going forward.

Part two of Betting on MMA focuses on some of the extraneous factors that surround a given fighter in the weeks/months before a fight (hype, for instance) but also takes a look at the more discernible determinants that could alter a bet. A fighters paths to victory (a.k.a how they can win the fight), his/her age, injury rumors — these are all details that MMA gambling fans should keep a look out for before placing their bets. But Rothman goes even further than that, placing an additional emphasis on staying away from fighters who “look soft” come weigh-in time. Although he uses a perfect example in Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos 1 (Cain was coming off multiple debilitating injuries), two more recent examples that strike me are Mark Munoz in his fight with Chris Weidman and Patrick Cote against Alessio Sakara last weekend. Say what you want about the ending of the latter, but in both cases, two guys showed up looking heavier around the waist than normal and paid dearly for it. Rothman also details several other fight-alternating factors, such as a given fighters “chin” and how losing a title fight can affect a fighter’s performance in the long run.

The third section of Rothman’s book provides a couple examples of low risk, big reward bets he calls “Big Game Hunting” and displays two real-life “case studies” in which Rothman puts his teachings into practice. Again, in order to see just what fights he bet on and using what logic, you’ll have to pick the book up for yourself, but suffice it to say, Rothman was spot on in both cases and the information is presented as such.

That is not to say that Rothman doesn’t paint with too broad a brush at times. For instance, when analyzing the third fight between B.J. Penn and Matt Hughes at UFC 123 using his “Paths to Victory” assessment, Rothman claims that Hughes had no method through which he could win the fight and therefore wouldn’t justify a bet, despite the fact that Hughes had managed to both exploit Penn’s lack of cardio at 170 and his own size advantage when he defeated Penn in the pair’s second showing at UFC 63. Granted, I would have never bet on Hughes in that fight and Rothman was ultimately correct in his analysis, but to claim that Hughes had no way of winning seems a little presumptuous. It is a small complaint that is purely subjective, and truly one of the only ones I could find while reviewing the book. Other than the somewhat odd spacing of words and sentences at times, which I will chalk up as a mistake on the publisher’s part.

At 100 pages on the nose, Betting on MMA is succinct enough to read through in an hour or two, yet thorough enough to provide a lifetime’s worth of knowledge when it comes to gambling on MMA. You can purchase a paperback version of Betting on MMA here, a Kindle version here, or check out Rothman’s official site for all your gambling needs here.

UFC 153 Betting Odds: Anderson Silva Opens at a Totally Reasonable -1350 Over Stephan Bonnar

(“ERMAHGERD. WERST GERMBLING ERDS ERVER”)

Since the Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnar replacement main event at UFC 153 was announced, I’ve been waiting patiently to see what kind of absurd betting line would be tied to this fight, and the oddsmakers didn’t disappoint. As MMAWeekly informs us, Silva has just opened as a -1350 (!) favorite, compared to Stephan Bonnar’s +850 underdog line. Gambling n00b translation: A $1,350 bet on Anderson would net you just a $100 profit if he wins, while a $100 bet on Bonnar would pay off $850 in profit if he does the unthinkable. And if you’re trying to decide which guy to put money on, I can confidently say that either bet would be stupid as fuck.

That -1350 line represents the most lopsided odds for an Anderson Silva fight ever, and even surpasses the -1300 opening line that was given to Jon Jones against Vitor Belfort. In general, once the gambling line passes -1000 for the favorite, it’s a pretty clear sign that the fight is a dangerous squash match that shouldn’t have been booked in the first place. (Example: Cris Cyborg‘s -2000 opening line over Jan Finney, a fight that turned out to be exactly as competitive as we thought it would.)

(“ERMAHGERD. WERST GERMBLING ERDS ERVER”)

But let’s be fair: In a sport as volatile as MMA, an astronomically high betting line for the favorite is no guarantee of victory. Notably, Georges St. Pierre got TKO’d by Matt Serra in their first meeting at UFC 69, after coming in as a -1300 favorite, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira was as high as -2500 before getting knocked out by the then-unknown Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou at PRIDE 33.

Again, I’m not trying to convince you to bet on Bonnar here. I’m just saying, maybe on fight night you should go to a sports bar that’s showing the event, look for some poor mark who doesn’t seem to know what’s going on, and casually suggest that you think the black guy is gonna win. If you play your cards right, you might be able to get a free beer out of it.