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UFC 171 Tweet-Sized Stats: 26 Surprising Facts for Hendricks vs. Lawler

(Fan-made poster by Frank G.)

Note: Reed’s book ‘Fightnomics’ is available now on Amazon (in Kindle and paperback versions), featuring 336 pages of statistical analysis on UFC fighters and the “hidden science” behind their fights. If you’ve been a fan of his Databomb columns on CagePotato, pick up a copy today.

With UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler coming up this Saturday, I decided to put together another batch of interesting facts and stats about the event, all of which fit inside Twitter’s 140-character limit. Feel free to tweet ’em out yourself during the event, and let us know which ones surprised you the most. (And of course, follow @cagepotatomma and @fightnomics if you’re not doing so already.) Let’s begin…

The Good

7 of the Top 15 ranked @ufc welterweights are competing at #UFC171. That includes numbers 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 12, & 14. Post GSP-era starts now.

Welterweight sluggers at #UFC171: punch for punch @TWooodley has the highest WW Knockdown Rate-13%. Lawler-10%, Lombard/Hendricks-6%. Ave=4%

Myles Jury has the best head striking defense at #UFC171. He makes opponents miss 93% of the time. Next best is Tyron Woodley at 80%.

Alex Garcia’s UFC debut lasted just 43 seconds. He landed 9 total strikes, dropped his opponent and won by KO. He opens FS2 #UFC171 prelims

Best Takedown Defense at #UFC171 goes to Tyron Woodley-94%, Dennis Bermudez-89%, Hector Lombard-79%

Highest paced striker at #UFC171 is Jake Shields. He averages 17 strikes per minute while standing, and outworks opponents by 75%
[Ed. note: WTF???]

(Fan-made poster by Frank G.)

By Reed Kuhn

With UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler coming up this Saturday, I decided to put together another batch of interesting facts and stats about the event, all of which fit inside Twitter’s 140-character limit. Feel free to tweet ‘em out yourself during the event, and let us know which ones surprised you the most. (And of course, follow @cagepotatomma and @fightnomics if you’re not doing so already.) Let’s begin…

The Good

7 of the Top 15 ranked @ufc welterweights are competing at #UFC171. That includes numbers 1, 2, 3, 6, 11, 12, & 14. Post GSP-era starts now.

Welterweight sluggers at #UFC171: punch for punch @TWooodley has the highest WW Knockdown Rate-13%. Lawler-10%, Lombard/Hendricks-6%. Ave=4%

Myles Jury has the best head striking defense at #UFC171. He makes opponents miss 93% of the time. Next best is Tyron Woodley at 80%.

Alex Garcia’s UFC debut lasted just 43 seconds. He landed 9 total strikes, dropped his opponent and won by KO. He opens FS2 #UFC171 prelims

Best Takedown Defense at #UFC171 goes to Tyron Woodley-94%, Dennis Bermudez-89%, Hector Lombard-79%

Highest paced striker at #UFC171 is Jake Shields. He averages 17 strikes per minute while standing, and outworks opponents by 75%
[Ed. note: WTF???]

Jake Shields has already beaten 3 other ranked welterweights competing at #UFC171, including Carlos Condit, Robbie Lawler & Tyron Woodley

Arms Race: Ovince St. Preux has the longest reach at #UFC171 at 79”. His opponent Nikita Krylov has the 2^nd longest reach at 77.5”

Two fights into his UFC career and Nikita Krylov has yet to be hit with a head jab. He also hasn’t landed one yet himself #UFC171

.@jakeshieldsajj has spent more minutes in control on the mat than any other fighter at #UFC171 & 17% of that time was in full mount.

Carlos Condit & Jake Shields are most likely to advance position while on the mat at #UFC171. Each average several advances per takedown landed

The Bad

Hector Lombard (36) and Jakes Shields (35) are the two oldest competitors at #UFC171. When they face each other it’s 71 years combined age in the Octagon

With a reported reach of 62″, Jessica Andrade has the shortest wingspan of any fighter in UFC history #UFC171

Worst Takedown Defense to date at #UFC171 goes to Nikita Krylov. Opponents were 4 for 4 in takedown attempts against him

The most experienced UFC veteran at #UFC171 is Diego Sanchez. In his UFC career he’s been hit in the head 920 times total (5^th all-time)

Jake Shields is the least accurate striker at #UFC171, he only lands 12% of his power head strikes

No one at #UFC171 has attempted more takedowns in the UFC than Diego Sanchez. Of his 133 attempts, however, he has only landed 19%.

The Weird

There will be (at least) 11 Southpaws competing at #UFC171 which is more than any card in @ufc history. It’s the most UNorthodox card ever!

In the main event at #UFC171 both fighters will come out Southpaw. And with the nicknames given to them when they were two: Johny & Robbie.

Most likely to attempt a takedown at #UFC171 are Johny Hendricks & Jake Shields. Each average 1 attempt per minute they are on their feet.

Most likely to mix up his striking attack at #UFC171 is Carlos Condit. He throws body and leg kicks way more than average

Young Guns at #UFC171: Nikita Krylov, Kelvin Gastelum & Jessica Andrade are all just 22 years old. Justin Scoggins turns 22 in May

Arms Race: Jimmy Hettes will have the biggest Reach Advantage at #UFC171. His reach is 71” and he’s facing Dennis Bermudez-66”

Although Robbie Lawler rarely attempts takedowns, his success rate is 70%, the highest at #UFC171. Myles Jury is 2nd at 64%

Rick Story, the lowest of the 6 ranked Welterweights at #UFC171 has a UFC win over Johny Hendricks, the highest ranked Welterweight

No one at #UFC171 faced more takedowns than Carlos Condit (81). He defended 41% leaving opponents with a high collective takedown success %.

UFC 168 Tweet-Sized Stats & Facts: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

(Image via @spideranderson. Click to view full-size.)

By Reed Kuhn

While cranking through some statistical analysis of fighters competing at next weekend’s UFC 168 event, I came across a few tidbits that fit the character limit for tweetability. Tweet ‘em all you want, I’ll make more.

The Good:
• Anderson Silva has the highest Knockdown Rate of any fighter at #UFC168. 16% of his landed power head strikes cause a knockdown.

• In terms of Knockdown Rate, #UFC168 fighters Robert Peralta (14%) and Travis Browne (12%) are also way above average.

• Tibau vs Johnson at #UFC168 will be a rare Southpaw vs Southpaw matchup, or what I call a “Cyclone fight” due to the clockwise spin.

• Mostly likely to attempt takedowns at #UFC168 is Ronda Rousey who attempts 4 TDs per 5 min. round. Not that her rounds ever last that long.

• The most active standup striker at #UFC168 is Dennis Siver, who outworks his opponents by 59% in volume while standing.

• Hardest fighter to hit at #UFC168 is Anderson Silva, who avoids 82% of all head strikes thrown at him. Still, Weidman may only need one.

• Highest takedown defense at #UFC168 are Weidman & Browne, both 100%. Neither have been taken down despite each facing 7 attempts.

(Image via @spideranderson. Click to view full-size.)

By Reed Kuhn

The Good:
• Anderson Silva has the highest Knockdown Rate of any fighter at #UFC168. 16% of his landed power head strikes cause a knockdown.

• In terms of Knockdown Rate, #UFC168 fighters Robert Peralta (14%) and Travis Browne (12%) are also way above average.

• Tibau vs Johnson at #UFC168 will be a rare Southpaw vs. Southpaw matchup, or what I call a “Cyclone fight” due to the clockwise spin.

• Mostly likely to attempt takedowns at #UFC168 is Ronda Rousey who attempts 4 TDs per 5 min. round. Not that her rounds ever last that long.

• The most active standup striker at #UFC168 is Dennis Siver, who outworks his opponents by 59% in volume while standing.

• Hardest fighter to hit at #UFC168 is Anderson Silva, who avoids 82% of all head strikes thrown at him. Still, Weidman may only need one.

• Highest takedown defense at #UFC168 are Weidman & Browne, both 100%. Neither have been taken down despite each facing 7 attempts.

• The best takedown defense at #UFC168 is really Gleison Tibau at 92% against 62 total opponent attempts; he ranks #2 all-time behind GSP.

• Ronda Rousey has 0.72 submission attempts for every minute she has spent on the ground; closest 2nd at #UFC168 is Jim Miller at 0.37.

• Jim Miller has more total submission attempts in the UFC than any other fighter at #UFC168 with 29. One more & he wins an Octagon toaster.

• Denis Siver has the biggest pace advantage at #UFC168. He averages 12.8 Significant Strikes attempts/min, while Gamburyan averages 5.4.

• At 80.5” Uriah Hall will have the longest reach of any fighter at #UFC168, and >7” reach advantage over his opponent Chris Leben.

The Bad:
• Women’s champion Ronda Rousey will have the shortest reach of any fighter on the #UFC168 card at 66 inches. #irrelevant

• Weidman, Camoes, Brandao & Hall will all be facing southpaws. Generally, orthodox fighters fare a little worse when facing southpaws.

• The lowest paced standup striker at #UFC168 is Diego Brandao, who throws >40% fewer standup strike attempts than his opponents

• Lowest takedown defense at #UFC168 is Miesha Tate who only defended 1/5 attempts for 20%. Camoes not far behind (25%). But small samples.

• When fighting on the ground, Michael Johnson, Robert Peralta and Anderson Silva all mostly end up on their backs #UFC168

• Jim Miller and John Howard have both been swept for a ground position reversal 6 times by opponents, more than other fighters at #UFC168.

• 170’er William Macario is the only #UFC fighter ever who actually goes by the name “William.” There were 3 “Will”s though, and a “Willamy.”

The Ugly:
• Worst head striking defense at #UFC168 is Bobby Voelker, who only defends 57% of head strikes by opponents. Anderson Silva’s is best (82%).

• Both Rousey & Tate have very low head strike defense, meaning if they stand and trade they’re both going to look less pretty. #UFC168

• Denis Siver has suffered 6 knockdowns in his UFC career, more than anyone at #UFC168, despite having above average head strike defense.

• At 38.7 years old, Anderson Silva is the oldest fighter at #UFC168, meaning he is less likely to be submitted, but more likely to be KO’d.

• The worst Knockdown Resiliency rating at #UFC168 is Miesha Tate at 91%. She has suffered 3 knockdowns in Strikeforce/UFC.

• Despite having been KO’d by Weidman, Silva is still a -150 favorite at #UFC168, on par with when he fought Henderson -145 & Marquardt -150.

• Fabricio Camoes has the worst relative striking overall at #UFC168. His stats are below average in accuracy, power, pace & cage control.

• The final prelim bout pits some of the best head strike defense (Hall) vs some of the worst (Leben). Lots at stake in that fight. #UFC168

**********

Book description, via Amazon:

Fightnomics quantifies the underlying drivers of the world’s most exciting and fastest growing sport through deep analysis of Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) competition. Part Freakonomics and part Moneyball, Fightnomics is a statistical spotlight on the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) and the fighters who compete in the Octagon.

Does size matter?

Is the Southpaw Advantage real for MMA?

Is it better to be young or experienced in a fight?

How is the UFC Tale of the Tape lying to us?

What makes a strike significant?

What about Ring Rust, Octagon Jitters, or the Home Cage Advantage?

Just how accurate are betting odds?

Theories about how MMA works get put to the test with a little bit of science, and a whole lot of numbers. Fightnomics is the deepest and most complete analysis to date of historical UFC data that answers common, yet hotly debated questions about the sport. The fight game will never quite look the same once you’ve learned what really matters in a cage fight, and even a few surprising things that don’t.

The BANG Effect: A Statistical Look at 2013?s Most Improved MMA Team [DATABOMB]

(Duane Ludwig [right] with one of his star pupils. / Photo via Sherdog)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

An unlikely new coaching star, Duane “Bang” Ludwig has surged to the forefront of the competitive MMA coaching landscape after a fortuitous change of scenery. Ludwig is the obvious candidate for 2013’s “MMA Coach of the Year,” and few would question this, despite little fan awareness of his coaching prowess just one year ago.

Ludwig certainly had a tough 2012 that included three consecutive UFC losses, each one by first-round stoppage, the last of which added a fight-ending and career-threatening knee injury to the insult. But almost immediately after beginning the lengthy rehabilitation process, Ludwig got an unexpected phone call from Urijah Faber, and the creator of the Bang Muay Thai system suddenly migrated from the suburbs of Denver, Colorado to Sacramento, California.

Since Ludwig’s arrival at Team Alpha Male in December of 2012, his team’s fighters have been posting wins and highlight reel finishes at an unlikely pace. It’s even more unlikely, literally, when you consider the low share of TKO finishes that normally occur in the smaller weight classes where most Alpha Male fighters compete. The MMA media have been quick to point to the undeniable results of Team Alpha Male’s performance in the UFC as evidence that Ludwig was the missing ingredient to a team with championship potential. To be fair, the team already included former champions and contenders under Zuffa banners, but none that currently held a UFC belt. Now heading into this weekend’s UFC on FOX 9 card, Team Alpha Male has a chance to rack up not just four more wins, but capture its first UFC title of the Bang Era, and hold leading contender status in several divisions.

With all this hype around a team that is making a lot of noise, it’s a legitimate question to ask: Are they really better, or is this just a nice run of luck? The sudden emergence of Duane Ludwig as the MMA Coach of the Year is an extraordinary claim, and if Carl Sagan were still around (and an MMA fan), he would suggest that we demand extraordinary evidence before reaching such a bold conclusion. So I’m going to run the numbers in excruciating detail just to make sure.

(Duane Ludwig [right] with one of his star pupils. / Photo via Sherdog)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

An unlikely new coaching star, Duane “Bang” Ludwig has surged to the forefront of the competitive MMA coaching landscape after a fortuitous change of scenery. Ludwig is the obvious candidate for 2013′s “MMA Coach of the Year,” and few would question this, despite little fan awareness of his coaching prowess just one year ago.

The data analyzed here includes all statistics from UFC fights for Urijah Faber, Joseph Benavidez, Chad Mendes, Danny Castillo, and TJ Dillashaw. Because WEC fights were in a smaller cage, stats from those fights will be skewed to contain more action and finishes. So this is an apples-to-apples comparison of the same five fighters in UFC fights only, before and after the arrival of their new coach. I’m not just interested in total wins and finishes, I want to know specifically how their performance in the Octagon has changed. I’ve got 21 fights for this group of fighters in the UFC leading up to December 2012, and then 14 more that have taken place since. Those are our before and after samples.

Now let’s see what they tell us.

What You’ve Already Heard:

Team Alpha Male has been winning. A lot. And not just winning, but finishing opponents. The implicit suggestion is that they’re doing better than before, but how much better? Here’s how the team’s fight performance looks comparing records before and after the arrival of Coach Bang Ludwig.

So the rumors are true. Team Alpha Male is indeed winning and finishing a lot of fights, and yes, even more so than before. They were already a winning group, but now they hardly ever lose. Their lone losing performance in 2013 was TJ Dillashaw’s gutsy split decision loss to Raphael Assuncao in Brazil. The rest were all victorious, and this doesn’t even include the recent TUF 18 winner Chris Holdsworth (too recent to be included in the analysis). During the course of racking up these 13 victories, Team Alpha Male fighters also finished nine of their opponents, seven via strikes. That’s a much higher finishing rate (and especially KO/TKO rate) than their division peers in the UFC.

But we knew that. What’s new here is that we can now dive much deeper into very specific performance variables on a per-fighter and per-round basis to understand exactly how Team Alpha Male has improved their relative performance.

Standup Striking Metrics

These findings are, well, striking. It turns out that Team Alpha Male has improved on literally every single key metric I follow for assessing striking performance in the UFC. These fighters have improved jab and power head striking accuracy, clinch accuracy, and even their striking defense. They’ve done all this while increasing their striking output relative to opponents and demonstrating greater cage control. In terms of power, they’ve more than doubled their collective knockdown rate on a punch-for-punch basis, and have yet to be knocked down themselves.

It would seem that the addition of a head coach that specializes in striking has made a huge impact on a team that was highly competitive to begin with. They’ve stepped up their striking game across the board, and improved their performance metrics in every meaningful offensive and defensive category. Now what else can we find?

Significant Striking Metrics

In terms of Significant Striking the team has increased their pace by 13%, and improved the overall rate at which they land strikes. Even in terms of defense, Team Alpha Male improved slightly on an already solid metric.

Significant Strikes include all strikes thrown at a distance, plus power strikes in the clinch and on the ground. They are a general, but also useful statistic to measure the overall effective output of a fighter, and by these metrics again the team has improved their performance across the board. But what about on the ground?

Wrestling Metrics

The last category of stats reflects wrestling, both in terms of offense and defense. The results show that these fighters are attempting fewer takedowns than previously, but have been more successful in their attempts. The wrestling-centric reputation of the old Team Alpha Male is at risk of fading given that their fighters are choosing to stand and trade more often. But that doesn’t mean their skills are getting rusty. On the contrary; the team has more than doubled their takedown success rate, have landed those takedowns with more force (more frequent slams), and have also defended a very high rate of attempts by their opponents. In terms of performance, they have once again improved in every category, but this time on the mat.

The Final Word

Whether these results are surprising is not really important. Analysis is still a valuable tool, even when it simply confirms what we already thought to be true. Many believed that Ludwig’s arrival in Sacramento marked an improvement in the team’s performance. But with these analytical findings, now we know that to be true. It’s not a small improvement, it’s significant, and it’s across the board. Team Alpha Male is now a new and improved breed of solid wrestlers that have added crisp and violent striking to their arsenal. While fans of the sport have shared the benefits that this team of “Uber Males” has brought to the UFC, opponents in the promotion’s smaller divisions should be justifiably concerned.

With Benavidez, Faber, Mendes, and Castillo all competing at the UFC on FOX 9 card in their home-field arena in Sacramento, a lot of attention will be given to their performance. In terms of market expectations, Benavidez is currently considered a slight underdog to incumbent champion Demetrious Johnson. Lines on the rest of the Alpha Males are still pending at the time of this writing, but I expect Faber to have a close matchup with McDonald, Castillo to be a possible underdog to Barboza, and Mendes to be the only one getting a clear favorite line over Lentz. These should all be fun fights to watch. But there’s a lot at risk here for Team Alpha Male who are still seeking their first UFC title, and for head coach Duane Ludwig, who is hoping to end 2013 with a Bang.

For more MMA science and stats, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter or on Facebook, and check out the soon-to-be-released book on MMA analytics at www.fightnomics.com/book.

CagePotato Databomb #16: The Rise of Striking Pace in the UFC

(Click on the chart for the full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

During the controversial formative years of the UFC, the sport of Mixed Martial Arts looked a lot different. One could argue it wasn’t even MMA just yet. But somewhere between John McCain branding it “human cockfighting” and the modern MMA that shows up live on network TV in primetime, many aspects of the sport evolved.

So let’s take a very simple look at the activity pace of UFC fighters over time. The graph above shows the average annual total strike attempts per fighter per minute. The trend is pretty obvious.

The average total strikes thrown per minute has been climbing steadily over the years. Fully telling the story of why will take some more analysis and a few more charts, but two big reasons contributing to the trend are smaller weight classes and evolving time in position.

(Click on the chart for the full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

So let’s take a very simple look at the activity pace of UFC fighters over time. The graph above shows the average annual total strike attempts per fighter per minute. The trend is pretty obvious.

Overall, smaller weight classes tend to average a slightly higher pace of activity. And that’s even accepting the fact that fights in smaller divisions last longer than heavier weight classes due to lower finish rates. So despite testing their cardio harder in longer fights, smaller fighters manage to press the pace more than heavier ones.

A second big factor is that over the same period of MMA evolution, the portion of fights spent in a standup striking position has also increased. This may surprise some the same people who boo loudly every time fighters go to ground, but the average number of minutes fights spend on the mat has been steadily decreasing with time. While standing, both fighters are able to engage in striking activity. This too boosts the average pace of action as measured by striking activity.

On its current pace of advancement, UFC fighters will be averaging 10 total strike attempts per minute by 2016, unless other forces act to counter the historical trend. But there’s one more trend that is likely to continue pushing things forward: competition.

Over the last decade, competition has increased as the sport has grown in popularity, and more full-time athletes are competing in the Octagon. Training has improved, expectations have risen, and the amount of fame and fortune at stake in any given fight climbs steadily upward. These powerful competitive forces have also elevated the pace of fighting and the quality of action in the UFC.

For more MMA science and stats, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter or on Facebook. Catch up on Reed Kuhn’s MMA analytical research at www.fightnomics.com, or check out the soon-to-be-released book on MMA analytics at www.fightnomics.com/book.

MMA Stats: The Top 10 Latest Finishes in UFC History

(Photo via MMAFighting)

By Adam Martin

To me, the most impressive thing about Demetrious Johnson’s performance against John Moraga in the main event of UFC on FOX 8 last weekend was the fact that Johnson won the fight via fifth-round stoppage — only the fourth time in the history of the UFC that a match has ended in the fifth stanza.

The win also got me thinking: What are some of the other latest finishes in UFC history? Luckily, I did the work so you don’t have to. Here’s a list of the top 10 latest stoppages in UFC history since UFC 21, the first event to utilize the now-standard five-round, five-minute format for title fights.

(Note that since UFC 138 in 2011, many non-title fight main events have also been scheduled for five rounds, but only one such bout made this list.)

1. UFC on FOX 8: Demetrious Johnson def. John Moraga via submission (armbar), 3:43 of round five

Believe it or not, you were all witnessing history on Saturday when Johnson submitted Moraga, as “Mighty Mouse” now holds the record for the latest stoppage victory in the history of the UFC. That’s an amazing feat when you considering that the UFC has staged thousands of bouts over the years, and it’s even more amazing when you consider that the flyweights aren’t known for finishing their opponents. The fight was a testament to Johnson’s will and determination to look for the finish for the full 25 minutes, the mark of a true champion.

2. UFC 117: Anderson Silva def. Chael Sonnen via submission (triangle armbar), 3:10 of round five

(Photo via MMAWeekly)

(Photo via MMAFighting)

By Adam Martin

(Note that since UFC 138 in 2011, many non-title fight main events have also been scheduled for five rounds, but only one such bout made this list.)

1. UFC on FOX 8: Demetrious Johnson def. John Moraga via submission (armbar), 3:43 of round five

2. UFC 117: Anderson Silva def. Chael Sonnen via submission (triangle armbar), 3:10 of round five

(Photo via MMAWeekly)

Next up on the list is my personal favorite, and it’s none other than the main event of UFC 117 when Anderson Silva submitted Chael Sonnen with less than two minutes remaining in the fight, to once again defend his UFC middleweight title.

Heading into round five, Sonnen was well on his way to earning a decision victory over Silva, which would have made him the first man to defeat “The Spider” in the Octagon. But Silva showed that he didn’t want to give up his belt that night as he locked in the hail-mary submission and forced the tap out on Sonnen in a fight that, until this past weekend, was the latest stoppage in the history of the UFC.

3. UFC 39: Ricco Rodriguez def. Randy Couture via submission (elbow), 3:04 of round five

(Photo via Sherdog)

With Josh Barnett getting popped for steroids and stripped of his title, the UFC heavyweight championship was up for grabs and the promotion booked former champion Randy Couture to take on Ricco Rodriguez for the vacant strap in the main event of UFC 39: The Warriors Return.

But instead of Couture earning another one of his signature wins over a larger opponent, Rodriguez was the better man that night, as he was able to stop Couture via submission after hitting him with ground and pound so brutal that Couture, a fighter known for his incredible heart, was forced to give up.

4. UFC 107: BJ Penn def. Diego Sanchez via TKO (doctor stoppage), 2:37 of round five

(Photo via Sherdog)

The first of two BJ Penn fights to appear on this list was his UFC 107 fight against Diego Sanchez, a fight that Penn won in the fifth round after cuts on Sanchez’ face forced the doctor to wave off the match. Penn beat the living snot out of Sanchez in this fight and the only reason it lasted so long is because Sanchez is tough as nails.

5. UFC 94: Georges St-Pierre def. BJ Penn via TKO (corner stoppage), 5:00 of round four

(Photo via Getty)

One of Georges St-Pierre’s rare stoppage wins took place at UFC 94, where he beat the stuffing out of BJ Penn so badly that the tough-as-nails Hawaiian’s corner threw in the towel at the end of the fourth round. It’s a testament to Penn’s toughness that he wasn’t the one who forced the stop to the fight, but this fight took a lot out of Penn, and the Prodigy has never looked the same as a welterweight since then.

By the way, this was the last stoppage victory recorded by St-Pierre — and it took place all the way back in 2009, meaning the Canadian welterweight champ hasn’t recorded a stoppage win since the last decade.

6. UFC 22: Frank Shamrock def. Tito Ortiz via submission (punches), 4:42 of round four

(Photo via FCFighter)

The oldest fight to appear on this list and the only fight to take place in the 1990s took place at UFC 22 in 1999 when Frank Shamrock and Tito Ortiz delivered one of the greatest fights of all time, a bout that ended late in the fourth round after Shamrock overwhelmed Ortiz with strikes and forced him to tap out.

Shamrock defended the UFC light heavyweight championship for the last time in this fight, as he retired from the sport — temporarily, anyways — and relinquished the title, only to see Ortiz later win the vacant belt and then earn the record for consecutive title defenses at 205 pounds.

In my opinion, this is one of the most important matches in the history of the UFC and if you’ve never seen a tape of this match — it’s not available on DVD so you’ll have to look hard — I implore you to do everything in your power to find one, as this is an amazing fight that deserves to be watched by everyone who calls themselves a fan of MMA.

On the next page: A non-title bout makes the list, more thrills from the lightweight division, and ten fun facts about late finishes in the UFC.

CagePotato Databomb #15: For UFC Bonuses, It Pays to Fight Last

(Click on the chart for the full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

A hot topic in the news lately has been UFC Fight Night Bonuses. This includes the end of event bonuses awarded to the Fight of the Night (FOTN), Knockout of the Night (KOTN), and Submission of the Night (SOTN). Officially, UFC president Dana White says those bonuses are here to stay, which is great news for perpetually exciting fighters like Joe Lauzon, Donald Cerrone, and Frankie Edgar. Bonuses incentivize performance, spread the wealth, and give guys who give their all an official metric for justifying their place on the Zuffa roster.

I’ve already covered the timeline of awarded bonuses, so the natural next question concerns who actually receives them. Now that the standardized Fight Night bonus is fixed at $50,000, regardless of what channel a UFC event is broadcast on, let’s examine a different layer of detail.

What I’ve graphed above is the percentage likelihood of winning a Fight Night bonus based solely on card placement. This particular DataBomb will surely make the heads of some prelim fighters feel like they want to explode.

Indeed, it pays to fight last. It turns out that the fighters competing in the highest profile spots on the fight card are also the most likely to win Fight Night Bonuses. Is that fair? That (presumably) the highest-paid fighters also get more than their share of bonus money? If you’re fighting in a Main Event you have more than a one-in-three chance of winning a bonus of some kind, with most of those bonuses not requiring a finish, or even a win. Whereas towards the bottom of the preliminary cards, fighters average only a one-in-ten chance of taking home a bonus, and more likely require a win inside the distance to do so.

But not so fast…

(Click on the chart for the full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

But not so fast. As has been speculated before, the bump of bonuses on the main card may be a reflection of the higher skill level of the fighters who compete there. Basically, knocking a guy out who is highly ranked is inherently more impressive than finishing an undercard fighter. Bonuses, therefore, reflect the level of difficulty that increases as the event approaches its conclusion, and factor in the overall level of difficulty in performing at a high level against better competition.

This may be a factor. Certainly, a Fight of the Night bonus requires not one, but both fighters to be in great shape and able to fight through a back and forth war. In theory, main events feature the most talented fighters of any given card, and correspondingly result in a whopping 36% of those fighters taking home some form of Fight Night bonus on top of other compensation. A fighter in any given spot on the main card will average a 14.7% FOTN bonus rate, while being on the prelim card results in a measly 3.2% FOTN average. That’s a huge drop, and far more than Knockout and Submission averages across the card.

But the main card bump in finishing bonuses may also be reflecting other factors. First, larger fighters are more likely to command main card presence. This may be due to their higher finish rates, or just the general fan’s appetite for bigger weight classes. Bigger fighters sell tickets, and generally deliver for the fans by scoring more knockouts. This may be an additional factor in the KOTN average being 6.4% for main card fighters, but only 2.4% for fighters on the prelims.

The same trends of division size and card placement may also work in reverse for submissions, which are the most stable bonus type across the card. Main card fighters take home 4.6% of these bonuses per spot, while prelim fighters average 3.5%. Not a huge drop. Overall, submissions are more rare than (T)KO’s so sometimes the selection of a SOTN winner is easier. And perhaps the idea of a skillful submission is also better able to stand alone in our minds, regardless of card placement, allowing undercard fighters a fairer shot at the bonus.

But look more closely at the #5 and #6 spots on the card. Despite nearly identical rates for finish bonuses, rates for the more subjective Fight of the Night bonuses drop from over 13% on the bottom of the main card to just 6% at the top of the preliminaries. Is there really that much of a difference in quality and skill of fighters between those two positions on the card? Probably not. Watch out folks: science!

At the end of the night, what stands out in our minds? Was it a devastating 10-second KO on the Facebook prelims, or was it as highly ranked fighter getting unexpectedly TKO’d by a new contender? Our tendency to remember more recent events is most commonly described as the “Availability Heuristic.” Basically, what comes to mind when we try to recall things is the information and memories that are most readily available. And that means most fresh in our minds. More specifically, some call it “Recency Bias,” and that bias is a powerful underlying psychological influence on the end of night decision to award bonuses. It’s why entertainment programs always try to “end with a bang,” or in the UFC’s case, the main event. It’s why cruise ships save their best dinner for last, and why Disney World has fireworks every single night. When searching for superlative memories (the best or worst of something) it’s always easier to remember the fights that are most fresh in our minds, and in the case of MMA fights that means the last few fights of the night. We’d like to think that everyone has a fair shot at Fight Night bonuses. But that’s unrealistic, if only because the people who decide who wins that are human after all.

So now that we know that Fight Night Bonuses are here to stay, we have to ask ourselves whether or not they are serving the proper purpose, or simply falling prey to more fundamental trends. Do they truly reward the most exemplary performances? Or are they simply padding the wallets of the highest earning fighters in the UFC? Would fans and fighters alike prefer to see the $200,000 in bonus money per event be allocated to the dozen or so fighters on the bottom of the card? An even salary allocation would give an additional $14,286 to each undercard fighter for the typical 12-fight card. In many cases, that would more than double the base pay that these fighters receive to show.

As with many managerial decisions, it’s always good to run the numbers first while exploring options. Let the matter of Who Wins Fight Night Bonuses now be settled. The next question might be if this system is the right one.

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