Tag: MMA stats

CagePotato Databomb #12: Have UFC PPVs Really Become More Watered Down?


(Click graph for full-size version.)

By Matt Saccaro

Lambasting the UFC over the perceived lack of card quality has become posh over the last few years. Go to the UG or any other Internet MMA destination and you’ll see people chiding the UFC as the “Bud Light of MMA” due to the supposedly “watered down” cards.

These same people recall the Good ol’ Days™ when title fights were plentiful, guys like Elvis Sinosic and Wesley “Cabbage” Correira were in the cage and out of the unemployment line, and each match on the card was ten times more exciting than Griffin-Bonnar I.

We at CagePotato wanted to find out if these sentiments were true — if the cards meant more in the old days and weren’t loaded with filler — or if such thoughts were just the result of nostalgia-goggles that ultimately did nothing.

What we decided to do was this: Look at the amount of UFC pay-per-view events per year since Zuffa purchased the company in 2001. Of those PPVs, we counted up how many had title fights — and were therefore, in theory, worth paying for — and how many didn’t have title fights.

At the top of this post you’ll see a handy-dandy double bar graph to illustrate our findings. The blue bars represent the number of pay-per-view events with title fights, the red bars represent the PPVs without title fights.

Let’s break down the numbers…


(Click graph for full-size version.)

By Matt Saccaro

Lambasting the UFC over the perceived lack of card quality has become posh over the last few years. Go to the UG or any other Internet MMA destination and you’ll see people chiding the UFC as the “Bud Light of MMA” due to the supposedly “watered down” cards.

These same people recall the Good ol’ Days™ when title fights were plentiful, guys like Elvis Sinosic and Wesley “Cabbage” Correira were in the cage and out of the unemployment line, and each match on the card was ten times more exciting than Griffin-Bonnar I.

We at CagePotato wanted to find out if these sentiments were true — if the cards meant more in the old days and weren’t loaded with filler — or if such thoughts were just the result of nostalgia-goggles that ultimately did nothing.

What we decided to do was this: Look at the amount of UFC pay-per-view events per year since Zuffa purchased the company in 2001. Of those PPVs, we counted up how many had title fights — and were therefore, in theory, worth paying for — and how many didn’t have title fights.

At the top of this post you’ll see a handy-dandy double bar graph to illustrate our findings. The blue bars represent the number of pay-per-view events with title fights, the red bars represent the PPVs without title fights.

Let’s break down the numbers…

Every UFC PPV from 2001-2003 had at least one title fight. UFC 33 had three title fights. The first non-title fight PPV in the Zuffa era was UFC 47, headlined by (of course) Dana White’s best buddy, Chuck Liddell.

The amount of UFC PPVs held each year was in the single digits until the post-TUF boom.  The UFC held 10 PPVs in 2006 — the year after the first season of The Ultimate Fighter aired and when the show was starting to pick up steam. But even then, the cards weren’t “watered down” as fans would say. Only one PPV in 2006 didn’t have a title fight: UFC 60, main evented by Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie.

There were four PPVs without a title fight in 2007, although only three of them were by design (there was no title defense at UFC 67 because Travis Lutter couldn’t make weight for his fight against Anderson Silva). It’s likely that by 2007 the UFC was starting to experiment with their newfound popularity. Could they sell cards solely based on their brand name alone? Pay-per-view main events like Rich Franklin vs. Yushin Okami, Chuck Liddell vs. Keith Jardine, and Michael Bisping vs. Rashad Evans helped them answer this question — apparently in the negative, since 2008 had more PPVs with title fights and fewer without.

Things got choppy in 2009. Nearly half of the UFC’s 13 PPVs that year didn’t have a belt on the line. Unfortunately, this trend would continue for 2010 and 2011 — where 7/15 and 7/16 PPVs, respectively, had only “contenders” or guys that were “in the mix” rather than champions and challengers.

It’s also worth noting that the featherweight and bantamweight divisions made their UFC debut in 2011. These weight classes have since proven to be poor draws that can’t hold the casual fan’s attention. Of the seven PPV title fights in 2011, one of them was from those weight classes (UFC 132’s bantamweight battle between Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber). Also, to be fair to the UFC, there were two title fights given away for free in 2011: Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson on Versus and Junior Dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez on FOX.

By 2012, the UFC apparently learned its lesson and realized that people didn’t want to pay for cards that had zero implications (you know, cards like UFC 161). Only two out of 13 PPVs in 2012 were without title fights. However, again, of the 11 PPVS that had titles on the line, two of them were titles from weight classes below 155 pounds.

We’re still in the middle of 2013 but, so far, we’ve had six PPVs. One (UFC 161) hasn’t had a title fight. Two have starred champions from the lighter weight classes (UFC 156 headlined by Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar and UFC 157 headlined by Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche). There have also been three free title fights, one in the lightweight division, one in the flyweight division and one in bantamweight division. There are five scheduled PPVs so far for the rest of 2013. They all have title fights on them; one of those title fights is in the featherweight division. There’s also a free flyweight title fight on FOX.

If there’s one concise narrative that can be drawn from all the numbers, it’s this: The UFC had more stacked cards in the beginning of the Zuffa era because it had fewer fighters and a smaller audience. With less shows being put on overall, it wasn’t a challenge to stick title fights on every one of them. When the UFC’s audience exploded after TUF and demand for the product increased, Dana & Company saw all the money that could be made from promoting more events, and began upping the number of PPVs. Eventually, they got greedy. There were three times as many non-title fight PPVs in 2009 than there were in 2008, for example.

However, fortunately, the UFC scaled back on Couture vs. Coleman-level PPVs (at least for the time being). Hopefully they’ll keep things this way until a new MMA bubble emerges.

CagePotato Databomb #12: Have UFC PPVs Really Become More Watered Down?


(Click graph for full-size version.)

By Matt Saccaro

Lambasting the UFC over the perceived lack of card quality has become posh over the last few years. Go to the UG or any other Internet MMA destination and you’ll see people chiding the UFC as the “Bud Light of MMA” due to the supposedly “watered down” cards.

These same people recall the Good ol’ Days™ when title fights were plentiful, guys like Elvis Sinosic and Wesley “Cabbage” Correira were in the cage and out of the unemployment line, and each match on the card was ten times more exciting than Griffin-Bonnar I.

We at CagePotato wanted to find out if these sentiments were true — if the cards meant more in the old days and weren’t loaded with filler — or if such thoughts were just the result of nostalgia-goggles that ultimately did nothing.

What we decided to do was this: Look at the amount of UFC pay-per-view events per year since Zuffa purchased the company in 2001. Of those PPVs, we counted up how many had title fights — and were therefore, in theory, worth paying for — and how many didn’t have title fights.

At the top of this post you’ll see a handy-dandy double bar graph to illustrate our findings. The blue bars represent the number of pay-per-view events with title fights, the red bars represent the PPVs without title fights.

Let’s break down the numbers…


(Click graph for full-size version.)

By Matt Saccaro

Lambasting the UFC over the perceived lack of card quality has become posh over the last few years. Go to the UG or any other Internet MMA destination and you’ll see people chiding the UFC as the “Bud Light of MMA” due to the supposedly “watered down” cards.

These same people recall the Good ol’ Days™ when title fights were plentiful, guys like Elvis Sinosic and Wesley “Cabbage” Correira were in the cage and out of the unemployment line, and each match on the card was ten times more exciting than Griffin-Bonnar I.

We at CagePotato wanted to find out if these sentiments were true — if the cards meant more in the old days and weren’t loaded with filler — or if such thoughts were just the result of nostalgia-goggles that ultimately did nothing.

What we decided to do was this: Look at the amount of UFC pay-per-view events per year since Zuffa purchased the company in 2001. Of those PPVs, we counted up how many had title fights — and were therefore, in theory, worth paying for — and how many didn’t have title fights.

At the top of this post you’ll see a handy-dandy double bar graph to illustrate our findings. The blue bars represent the number of pay-per-view events with title fights, the red bars represent the PPVs without title fights.

Let’s break down the numbers…

Every UFC PPV from 2001-2003 had at least one title fight. UFC 33 had three title fights. The first non-title fight PPV in the Zuffa era was UFC 47, headlined by (of course) Dana White’s best buddy, Chuck Liddell.

The amount of UFC PPVs held each year was in the single digits until the post-TUF boom.  The UFC held 10 PPVs in 2006 — the year after the first season of The Ultimate Fighter aired and when the show was starting to pick up steam. But even then, the cards weren’t “watered down” as fans would say. Only one PPV in 2006 didn’t have a title fight: UFC 60, main evented by Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie.

There were four PPVs without a title fight in 2007, although only three of them were by design (there was no title defense at UFC 67 because Travis Lutter couldn’t make weight for his fight against Anderson Silva). It’s likely that by 2007 the UFC was starting to experiment with their newfound popularity. Could they sell cards solely based on their brand name alone? Pay-per-view main events like Rich Franklin vs. Yushin Okami, Chuck Liddell vs. Keith Jardine, and Michael Bisping vs. Rashad Evans helped them answer this question — apparently in the negative, since 2008 had more PPVs with title fights and fewer without.

Things got choppy in 2009. Nearly half of the UFC’s 13 PPVs that year didn’t have a belt on the line. Unfortunately, this trend would continue for 2010 and 2011 — where 7/15 and 7/16 PPVs, respectively, had only “contenders” or guys that were “in the mix” rather than champions and challengers.

It’s also worth noting that the featherweight and bantamweight divisions made their UFC debut in 2011. These weight classes have since proven to be poor draws that can’t hold the casual fan’s attention. Of the seven PPV title fights in 2011, one of them was from those weight classes (UFC 132’s bantamweight battle between Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber). Also, to be fair to the UFC, there were two title fights given away for free in 2011: Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson on Versus and Junior Dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez on FOX.

By 2012, the UFC apparently learned its lesson and realized that people didn’t want to pay for cards that had zero implications (you know, cards like UFC 161). Only two out of 13 PPVs in 2012 were without title fights. However, again, of the 11 PPVS that had titles on the line, two of them were titles from weight classes below 155 pounds.

We’re still in the middle of 2013 but, so far, we’ve had six PPVs. One (UFC 161) hasn’t had a title fight. Two have starred champions from the lighter weight classes (UFC 156 headlined by Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar and UFC 157 headlined by Ronda Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche). There have also been three free title fights, one in the lightweight division, one in the flyweight division and one in bantamweight division. There are five scheduled PPVs so far for the rest of 2013. They all have title fights on them; one of those title fights is in the featherweight division. There’s also a free flyweight title fight on FOX.

If there’s one concise narrative that can be drawn from all the numbers, it’s this: The UFC had more stacked cards in the beginning of the Zuffa era because it had fewer fighters and a smaller audience. With less shows being put on overall, it wasn’t a challenge to stick title fights on every one of them. When the UFC’s audience exploded after TUF and demand for the product increased, Dana & Company saw all the money that could be made from promoting more events, and began upping the number of PPVs. Eventually, they got greedy. There were three times as many non-title fight PPVs in 2009 than there were in 2008, for example.

However, fortunately, the UFC scaled back on Couture vs. Coleman-level PPVs (at least for the time being). Hopefully they’ll keep things this way until a new MMA bubble emerges.

CagePotato Databomb #10: Breaking Down the UFC Heavyweights by Striking Performance


(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

We’ve saved the biggest fighters for last in the striking assessment series. Heavyweights end 57% of fights by (T)KO, far more than any other weight class. They also have the highest average power head striking accuracy, possibly because defense is harder when you’re that big.

So let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, then look at the winners and losers in each category. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.

THE WINNERS

Sniper Award: Relative newcomer Shawn Jordan has been a highly accurate striker to date, though he has lacked knockdown power. So let’s focus on the trio of Pat Barry, Dave Herman, and Mark Hunt, who each have four or more UFC appearances and have maintained power head striking accuracy of 38% or more. These are big guys who can also hit their target.

Energizer Bunny Award: Monstrous southpaw Todd Duffee has almost quadrupled the striking output of his opponents with three fights to date in the Octagon, none of which have gone the distance. But with far greater Octagon experience, veterans Cheick Kongo and former champion Junior Dos Santos have managed to almost double the volume of opponents, all while maintain accuracy well above the division average.


(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

We’ve saved the biggest fighters for last in the striking assessment series. Heavyweights end 57% of fights by (T)KO, far more than any other weight class. They also have the highest average power head striking accuracy, possibly because defense is harder when you’re that big.

So let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, then look at the winners and losers in each category. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.

THE WINNERS

Sniper Award: Relative newcomer Shawn Jordan has been a highly accurate striker to date, though he has lacked knockdown power. So let’s focus on the trio of Pat Barry, Dave Herman, and Mark Hunt, who each have four or more UFC appearances and have maintained power head striking accuracy of 38% or more. These are big guys who can also hit their target.

Energizer Bunny Award: Monstrous southpaw Todd Duffee has almost quadrupled the striking output of his opponents with three fights to date in the Octagon, none of which have gone the distance. But with far greater Octagon experience, veterans Cheick Kongo and former champion Junior Dos Santos have managed to almost double the volume of opponents, all while maintain accuracy well above the division average.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Punch for punch, Shane Carwin has landed the most knockdowns in the fewest strikes. Despite low accuracy and pace, Carwin packed enough power to finish his first four UFC fights all by (T)KO. Like a mortar in high winds, Carwin doesn’t land on target very often. But when he does, he destroys what he hits.

THE LOSERS

Swing and a Miss Award: With just 12% power head striking accuracy, the recently retired Christian Morecraft is the least accurate heavyweight striker on the list. Though Shane Carwin is a close second, he has made the most of the shots he’s landed. Morecraft outworked opponents by more than 30%, but under-landed them in the long run.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Former kickboxer Alistair Overeem may have seemed invincible prior to his knockout loss to Antonio Silva, but he certainly didn’t press the action inside the MMA cage. Opponents outworked the Reem by throwing more than double his standing strike volume.

Smallest Ball(s) Award: Only three heavyweights shown here have failed to score a knockdown in UFC/Strikeforce competition. But Shawn Jordan has failed to do so in 56 minutes of Octagon time to date. But Jordan did manage to finish two opponents by strikes, showing he’s got power on the ground. Morecraft, however, failed to score a knockdown in four UFC appearances, losing three of those fights by KO himself — so maybe his retirement from competition was a good thing after all.

Also Noteworthy…

Heavyweights hit hard, and collectively the group shown in the graph has scored 82 knockdowns in their fights through 2012. We’re just three months into 2013 and already fighters like Bigfoot Silva and Mark Hunt are putting in performances that will boost their striking assessment position the next time around.

The matchmakers have made sure to keep the UFC’s biggest sluggers booked for future shows. First, Matt Mitrione will take on Philip De Fries at this weekend’s UFC on Fuel TV 9: Mousasi vs. Latifi card. The following week Travis Browne will make his comeback against Gabriel Gonzaga on the TUF 17 Finale card. Then on FOX on April 20th, Daniel Cormier will make his UFC debut against former champion Frank Mir. Not to mention Kongo vs. Nelson at UFC 159. And that’s just the matchups in April. In May we’ll get Junior Dos Santos vs. Mark Hunt, and see a title on the line with the Velasquez-Silva rematch. Bottom line: expect some fresh highlight reel knockouts from the UFC this spring.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Heavyweights is about 28%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155.

For more on the science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter and on Facebook. See more MMA analytical research at www.fightnomics.com. Raw data was provided by FightMetric.

CagePotato Databomb #9: Breaking Down the UFC Welterweights by Striking Performance


(Click the photo for a full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

With what some are calling the “Welterweight Card” at UFC 158 just a week away, it’s time to assess the UFC Welterweight Division in critical striking metrics. In addition to the long-awaited showdown between reigning champ Georges St. Pierre and Nick Diaz, there’s four more 170 pounders all in the title hunt. So a lot of questions will be answered in this division in one night, and it would help to put some of those in context first.

Let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, then look at the winners and losers in each category. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the bottom of this article.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Veteran Nate Marquardt makes his Octagon return at UFC 158 boasting a best in class 40% accuracy in power head striking. He’ll need it against southpaw Jake Ellenberger, who is pretty accurate himself at 32%. Honorable mention goes to the gritty Matt Brown who recently put his standup skills under the bright lights of the UFC on FOX show, knocking out Mike Swick, who is indeed “quick.”


(Click the photo for a full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

With what some are calling the “Welterweight Card” at UFC 158 just a week away, it’s time to assess the UFC Welterweight Division in critical striking metrics. In addition to the long-awaited showdown between reigning champ Georges St. Pierre and Nick Diaz, there’s four more 170 pounders all in the title hunt. So a lot of questions will be answered in this division in one night, and it would help to put some of those in context first.

Let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, then look at the winners and losers in each category. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the bottom of this article.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Veteran Nate Marquardt makes his Octagon return at UFC 158 boasting a best in class 40% accuracy in power head striking. He’ll need it against southpaw Jake Ellenberger, who is pretty accurate himself at 32%. Honorable mention goes to the gritty Matt Brown who recently put his standup skills under the bright lights of the UFC on FOX show, knocking out Mike Swick, who is indeed “quick.”

Energizer Bunny Award: Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is just two fights into his young UFC career, with one award winning knockout to his credit, and one grueling lesson learned from Matt Brown. But so far, Wonderboy has outstruck opponents in standup striking by more than two to one. Ditto for another fast working newcomer, Chris Clements.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Brazilian Erick Silva has been wrecking dudes, getting questionable disqualifications, or winning fight night bonuses in each of his four Octagon appearances. Most pundits are high on Silva’s potential, despite a loss to a far more experienced Jon Fitch. Silva is set to face another standout striker, John Hathaway, at the UFC on Fuel 10 card in June. Honorable mention goes to Thiago Alves and Nate Marquardt who lead the division in total knockdowns, with 10 and nine respectively.

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: With 45 minutes of fight time in the UFC so far, it seems David Mitchell is still trying to find his range. Mitchell has the division lowest power head striking accuracy at a chart-busting 9%. Historically a submission specialist, Mitchell was able to rebound recently with a win over Simeon Thoreson in a loser leave town matchup.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Since British fighter John Maguire has thrown strikes with a favorable 38% accuracy, he may want to try throwing a few more. Maguire has been outpaced by opponents nearly two to one in his first four UFC appearances, splitting those fights two and two.

Smallest Ball(s) Award: Of the 52 fighters charted above, 14 have yet to score a knockdown in the UFC or Strikeforce. But grappling specialists Demian Maia and Jake Shields have failed to do so despite over two hours of fight time logged. Maia has actually landed 53 power head strikes on opponents (out of 272 attempts) without getting anyone to drop. Opponents facing grapplers with poor accuracy and even worse power can resort to a sprawl and brawl strategy, while these grappling specialists should remember the first “M” in MMA.

Also Noteworthy

The high frequency of the red bubbles shows how successful Southpaws have been in the UFC Welterweight division. Thirteen of the 52 fighters shown in the graph are left-handed, more than twice the baseline rate for the general population.

Like other divisions, Welterweights show the same tradeoff between volume and accuracy. Counter-strikers tend to be more accurate, but must sacrifice volume while evading opponents, which is dangerous on judges’ cards. And high volume, forward pressing fighters tend not to land with as high accuracy. But those who break the mold combining accuracy with pace control are surely fighters to keep an eye on. This includes GSP training partner Rory MacDonald, who is coming off a lopsided victory over BJ Penn, and now has his sights set on top ranked opponents. But also watch for British striker John Hathaway, who is 7-1 in the Octagon since 2009 and scheduled to face the dangerous young gun Erick Silva in June. Let’s hope they keep that one standing.

At UFC 158 we’ll see heavy-handed and accurate strikers Nate Marquardt and Jake Ellenberger square off in a fight that will definitely affect the Welterweight rankings. We’ll also see Johny Hendricks and his blazing fast left hand come after the technical, yet inaccurate Carlos Condit in what will surely cement a title shot for Hendricks with a victory.

And let’s not forget the GSP-Diaz matchup. Their historical performance suggests that Diaz generally controls standup exchanges and outpaces his opponents. But St-Pierre is the more accurate and slightly heavier handed striker. Though not shown here, the key will be GSP’s evasiveness (his head striking defense is excellent) traded off with his chin (his knockout resiliency has been getting poorer). GSP’s fights tend to be more exciting when there’s genuine animosity at work, so we should expect a fairly tense chess match, and probably some mid-round trash talking from Diaz.

In our last installment of the division striking assessments we’ll take a look at the UFC Heavyweight division in all their jaw-breaking glory.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, orjabs to the head), where the average for UFC Welterweights is about 24%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: the objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155.  Some of these fighters competed in other weight classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed. Fighters with only one fight or less than 15 minutes of fight time were not included in the graph.

For more on the science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter or on Facebook. See more analytical MMA research at www.fightnomics.com. Raw data was provided by Fight Metric.

CagePotato Databomb #8: Breaking Down the UFC Middleweights by Striking Performance


(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

The UFC Middleweight division has long been ruled by the most feared and successful striker in MMA history, champion Anderson Silva. And perhaps more so than in smaller divisions, striking has been a good predictor of success at Middleweight. So examining this division in core striking performance metrics should provide good insight to how fighters will fare against each other in standup. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.

But first, let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, and look at the winners and losers.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Two fights into his UFC career, cross-trained Dutchman Michael Kuiper has landed 49% of his power head strikes. We’ll see if he can maintain this in his upcoming matchup with veteran brawler Tom Lawlor in Sweden. Honorable mention must be given to Anderson Silva who has maintained 40% accuracy over his lengthy and dominant career. And also noteworthy is Italian boxer, Alessio Sakara, currently on the bench for health reasons.

Energizer Bunny Award: Strikeforce veteran Roger Gracie has been almost doubling the striking output of opponents on his way to a string of submission wins in typical Gracie fashion. Some grapplers use strikes to set up their mat-work, others don’t. Honorable mentions go to former champ Rich Franklin, and Strikeforce champ and crossover contender Luke Rockhold, who each tend to outpace their opponents by over 80%.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: The UFC record holder for knockdowns is Anderson Silva. He is literally the best in the business at dropping dudes. Statistically, when Silva lands a power head strike, there’s a 27% chance it will result in a knockdown, which is just ridiculous. These skills have won him Knockout of the Night honors seven times in the UFC.


(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

The UFC Middleweight division has long been ruled by the most feared and successful striker in MMA history, champion Anderson Silva. And perhaps more so than in smaller divisions, striking has been a good predictor of success at Middleweight. So examining this division in core striking performance metrics should provide good insight to how fighters will fare against each other in standup. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.

But first, let’s see how the whole division stacks up against each other, and look at the winners and losers.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Two fights into his UFC career, cross-trained Dutchman Michael Kuiper has landed 49% of his power head strikes. We’ll see if he can maintain this in his upcoming matchup with veteran brawler Tom Lawlor in Sweden. Honorable mention must be given to Anderson Silva who has maintained 40% accuracy over his lengthy and dominant career. And also noteworthy is Italian boxer, Alessio Sakara, currently on the bench for health reasons.

Energizer Bunny Award: Strikeforce veteran Roger Gracie has been almost doubling the striking output of opponents on his way to a string of submission wins in typical Gracie fashion. Some grapplers use strikes to set up their mat-work, others don’t. Honorable mentions go to former champ Rich Franklin, and Strikeforce champ and crossover contender Luke Rockhold, who each tend to outpace their opponents by over 80%.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: The UFC record holder for knockdowns is Anderson Silva. He is literally the best in the business at dropping dudes. Statistically, when Silva lands a power head strike, there’s a 27% chance it will result in a knockdown, which is just ridiculous. These skills have won him Knockout of the Night honors seven times in the UFC.

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: Jason MacDonald and the aforementioned Roger Gracie only land 10% of their power head strikes. Perhaps that’s ok, since both guys are grappling specialists. It remains to be seen with Gracie, but MacDonald’s lack of standup skills has put him on the wrong end of Knockout of the Night awards in the past.

Starnes Award for Inaction: While Michael Kuiper has been very accurate so far, he also been very much a counter striker. He only had half the total striking output of his opponents to date. Some notable grapplers also show up on the far left, like Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Rousimar Palhares. Jacare will have his hand full with the streaking Cypriot, Costa Philippou, while Palhares is still recovering from a beatdown from bomber Hector Lombard.

Smallest Ball(s) Award: Only 12 of the fighters shown have yet to score a knockdown in the UFC. But Jason MacDonald has yet to do so despite over 80 minutes of Octagon time.

Also Noteworthy

The high frequency of the red bubbles shows how successful Southpaws have been in the UFC Middleweight division. Twelve of the 44 fighters shown in the graph are left-handed, about three times the baseline rate for the population at large.

The Middleweights also pack a punch. The fighters shown above have recorded 114 knockdowns in their time in UFC and Strikeforce cages. Amazingly, Anderson Silva owns 17 of those.

Like other divisions, Middleweights show the same tradeoff between volume and accuracy. Counter-strikers tend to be more accurate, but must sacrifice volume while evading opponents, which is dangerous on judges’ cards. And high volume, forward pressing fighters tend not to land with as high accuracy.

This weekend at UFC on Fuel TV 8, watch for a clash between the heavy-handed Hector Lombard, and seasoned counter-striker Yushin Okami. If Lombard wants to test Okami’s chin, he’ll have to improve his movement to cut off the cage and get close. The matchup will certainly have implications on the UFC rankings for the division.

Only two divisions left to look at. Next week we’ll see how Georges St-Pierre stacks up with the rest of UFC Welterweights, and then we’ll look at the big boys.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Middleweights is about 26%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155. Some of these fighters competed in other weight classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed. Fighters with only one fight or less than 15 minutes of fight time were not included in the graph.

For more on the science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter and on Facebook. See more MMA analytical research at www.fightnomics.com. Raw data was provided by FightMetric.

CagePotato Databomb #7: Breaking Down the UFC Light-Heavyweights by Striking Performance

(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

With several fights among top contenders in the Light Heavyweight division over the next few events — including Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida at UFC 157 this weekend — I’ve shifted focus to the bigger boys of the UFC. As a group, the 205’ers have a lot more power than the lower weight divisions, and they’ve recorded a total of 43 knockdowns between them during Zuffa competition.

A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post. For historical perspective, I’ve also kept some familiar names who recently retired. So which fighters get the awards in this group of sluggers?

The Winners

Sniper Award: Another Rangy Southpaw tops the accuracy list for a division. This time it’s Frenchman Cyrille Diabaté, who has landed 57% of his power head strikes. Unfortunately, the “Snake” might be on the shelf a while after tearing a calf muscle against Jimi Manuwa. At 6’ 6” and with a ridiculous 81” reach, Diabaté has wins over Michael Bisping and Rick Roufus from back in his professional kickboxing days. Now competing in the UFC, the 39-year old striker’s days may be numbered, though he’s stated he wants to compete long enough to participate in a UFC event in Paris. Honorable mentions go to Fabio Maldonado, unsurprisingly a formerly undefeated professional boxer, and also new UFC contender Glover Teixeira.

Energizer Bunny Award: Young Swede Alexander Gustafsson has more than doubled the standup striking pace of his opponents, a common characteristic of fighters successful at using their size to control the cage. The 6’5” modern day Viking takes a six-fight win streak into his home turf showdown with top Strikeforce import Gegard Mousasi, in a fight that could have title implications. We’ll see if he can push the pace against an opponent closer to his own age.

(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

With several fights among top contenders in the Light Heavyweight division over the next few events — including Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida at UFC 157 this weekend — I’ve shifted focus to the bigger boys of the UFC. As a group, the 205’ers have a lot more power than the lower weight divisions, and they’ve recorded a total of 43 knockdowns between them during Zuffa competition.

A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post. For historical perspective, I’ve also kept some familiar names who recently retired. So which fighters get the awards in this group of sluggers?

The Winners

Sniper Award: Another Rangy Southpaw tops the accuracy list for a division. This time it’s Frenchman Cyrille Diabaté, who has landed 57% of his power head strikes. Unfortunately, the “Snake” might be on the shelf a while after tearing a calf muscle against Jimi Manuwa. At 6’ 6” and with a ridiculous 81” reach, Diabaté has wins over Michael Bisping and Rick Roufus from back in his professional kickboxing days. Now competing in the UFC, the 39-year old striker’s days may be numbered, though he’s stated he wants to compete long enough to participate in a UFC event in Paris. Honorable mentions go to Fabio Maldonado, unsurprisingly a formerly undefeated professional boxer, and also new UFC contender Glover Teixeira.

Energizer Bunny Award: Young Swede Alexander Gustafsson has more than doubled the standup striking pace of his opponents, a common characteristic of fighters successful at using their size to control the cage. The 6’5” modern day Viking takes a six-fight win streak into his home turf showdown with top Strikeforce import Gegard Mousasi, in a fight that could have title implications. We’ll see if he can push the pace against an opponent closer to his own age.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Another Strikeforce import, Ovince St. Preux, has dropped 4 opponents in his Strikeforce run, with each landed power head strike having a 17% chance of causing a knockdown. Honorable mentions for high knockdown rates also go to Brian Stann and Lyoto Machida. Both Stann and Machida face other credible power strikers in their next fights, Wanderlei Silva and Dan Henderson, respectively. Thank you Joe Silva!

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: Vinny Magalhaes holds the dubious honor of the lowest power head striking accuracy in the division, at just 10%. Wisely, he has called out Phil Davis, who has the second lowest accuracy. They’ll face off at UFC 159 in what will either be a high-level grappling chess match, or a really sloppy standup affair.

Smallest Ball(s) Award: Only five of the 35 fighters shown in the chart have failed to score a knockdown in Zuffa competition. But Chael Sonnen has yet to do so despite 169.1 minutes of Octagon time, and 42 landed power head strikes while standing. If only I hadn’t named this award…oh man, you get the idea. Normally competing at 185 lbs, Sonnen’s out of his league at 205 lbs when it comes to knockdown power, and will likely not have a chance to prove otherwise against the rangy Jon Jones in April. A (dis)honorable mention also goes to the aforementioned Phil Davis and Vinny Magalhaes, who have equally questionable power.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Gian Villante went 3-2 in Strikeforce during 2011 and 2012, including a run of three wins in a row to finish out his career under the promotion. But overall he’s only attempted half as many standing strikes as his opponents. He’ll be facing a heavy handed — and generally much less gun shy — Ovince St. Preux at UFC 159 when each man makes his UFC debut.

Also Noteworthy

Division champion Jon Jones may not be popping up in the upper quadrant of our assessment, but with the longest reach in the UFC, Jones has been intelligently creating distance and controlling the pace of his fights. Overall he’s outpaced his opponents by almost 40% while maintaining benchmark accuracy – and he did all that against some of the best in the business.

Trailing the herd is an impressive group of UFC veterans, reminding us that MMA is more than striking, but also that there’s a new breed of more accurate (and much more active) strikers moving up the ranks. Evans, Couture, Henderson, Hamill, and Ortiz all have/had a solid wrestling base, but struggled to keep up the pace against their late-career opponents. Judges are influenced by pace less so than accuracy, so perhaps it’s time some of these older fighters evolve their game. Furthermore, seeing how favorably Nogueira stacks up with Evans, perhaps we should all admit the recent betting line for them was a little off.

Coming up this weekend, we’ll see division standout Lyoto Machida take on Dan Henderson at UFC 157. Machida’s accurate flurries match favorably with Henderson sub-par striking skills, but no one doubts the power of the H-Bomb. Should be interesting, and there could be fireworks.

The following weekend we’ll see Brian Stann return to 205 lbs to face the Axe-Murderer, Wanderlei Silva in yet another matchup between high powered sluggers. The pace favors Stann, though both can throw bombs.

Only three divisions left to look at, and we’re saving some good ones for last. Coming soon, we’ll see how the two longest-reigning UFC champions stack up in their divisions. And then to wrap it all up, the heavyweights.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Light Heavyweights is about 25%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155.  Some of these fighters competed in other weight classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed. Fighters with only one fight or less than 15 minutes of fight time were not included in the graph.

For more on the science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter and on Facebook. See more MMA analytical research at www.fightnomics.com.