Tag: PPV

The ‘FOX Boost’ Is a Myth: There’s No Formula to Create New UFC Stars


(Benson Henderson peers warily at the buyrate for UFC 164. / Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

By Matt Saccaro

Congratulations are in order for FOX and the UFC. They took a terrible draw in Benson Henderson and made him into merely a bad draw.

Henderson was partially responsible for one of the worst pay-per-view buyrates in recent UFC history — an estimated 190,000 buys for UFC 150 against fellow failure-to-move-the-needle Frankie Edgar. Henderson was so bad that the UFC kept him off PPV for an entire year after UFC 150, instead preferring to use their shows on FOX to build him up. After these shows, the UFC decided to put Henderson back in a PPV main event at UFC 164, presumably in order to see if FOX turned the ho-hum fighter into a star.

I noted the importance of UFC 164’s PPV performance in a previous article:

If UFC 164 can boast a decent buyrate, then the theory that the UFC can use FOX to create the next generation of stars will be proven true, and the UFC’s future will be a little more secure. But if UFC 164 fails as hard as UFC 150 did — if promoting a fighter TWO TIMES on one of the biggest networks on television failed to make that fighter a draw — then the UFC is in trouble. That would mean one champion who would be dead weight on a card, in addition to the champions from the lighter men’s weight classes who have all yet to establish themselves as major PPV draws.

UFC 164 didn’t perform as poorly as UFC 150. It drew an estimated 270,000 buys.

“That’s great! It’s about a 42% increase over last time,” you say? Yeah, that’s true, but let’s look at it another way.


(Benson Henderson peers warily at the buyrate for UFC 164. / Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

By Matt Saccaro

Congratulations are in order for FOX and the UFC. They took a terrible draw in Benson Henderson and made him into merely a bad draw.

Henderson was partially responsible for one of the worst pay-per-view buyrates in recent UFC history — an estimated 190,000 buys for UFC 150 against fellow failure-to-move-the-needle Frankie Edgar. Henderson was so bad that the UFC kept him off PPV for an entire year after UFC 150, instead preferring to use their shows on FOX to build him up. After these shows, the UFC decided to put Henderson back in a PPV main event at UFC 164, presumably in order to see if FOX turned the ho-hum fighter into a star.

I noted the importance of UFC 164’s PPV performance in a previous article:

If UFC 164 can boast a decent buyrate, then the theory that the UFC can use FOX to create the next generation of stars will be proven true, and the UFC’s future will be a little more secure. But if UFC 164 fails as hard as UFC 150 did — if promoting a fighter TWO TIMES on one of the biggest networks on television failed to make that fighter a draw — then the UFC is in trouble. That would mean one champion who would be dead weight on a card, in addition to the champions from the lighter men’s weight classes who have all yet to establish themselves as major PPV draws.

UFC 164 didn’t perform as poorly as UFC 150. It drew an estimated 270,000 buys.

“That’s great! It’s about a 42% increase over last time,” you say? Yeah, that’s true, but let’s look at it another way.

First, 270k buys for UFC 164 is still way below the 2013 average. Just because Henderson can draw flies to shit now, whereas before he couldn’t, doesn’t mean FOX is a star maker.

Second, Henderson main-evented two FOX shows: UFC on FOX 5 and UFC on FOX 7. The former drew 4.4 million average viewers and the latter garnered 3.7 million average viewers. Together, that’s 8.1 million people that saw Benson Henderson fight for free on FOX.  But the vast majority of these same people still refused to pay for a PPV headlined by Benson Henderson, a UFC “superstar” and world champion.

Again, there was a difference of 80,000 buys between UFC 150 — Bendo’s last PPV appearance before UFC 164 — and UFC 164 itself. And around 8 million people saw Bendo on free TV after UFC 150, but only 80,000 more people ordered UFC 164 than ordered UFC 150.

You know what that means?

It means that only 1% of the combined viewers of UFC on FOX 5 and UFC on FOX 7 were converted into PPV buyers.

That’s bad no matter how you spin it — unless you’re taking the “nearly 50% increase in buys!” angle which is the only way to look at the situation positively. Of course, the numbers given are estimates, so the actual percentages may be slightly higher or lower.

However, that doesn’t mean that the story the estimates convey is inaccurate. Placing a fighter on FOX doesn’t automatically make him or her a Brock Lesnar-level draw, or even an average-level draw. FOX can amplify a fighter’s reach and fan base but it can’t make viewers pay to see a fighter. FOX isn’t a panacea for a fighter that’s not selling PPVs. The only “stars” FOX will help make will be the ones who would’ve drawn well anyway due to their natural charisma or fighting style or simply because they have “it.”

So let’s put this talk of the vaunted FOX boost to rest, OK?

Sign of the End-Times: UFC 150 Pulls an Estimated 190k Pay-Per-View Buys


(“Sorry Frankie, but based on the terms of your pay-per-view bonus scale — as clearly stated in your contract — you actually owe us $10,000.“)

It wasn’t just UFC 150‘s live-gate that fell way below expectations. According to a new report from Dave “Doom ‘N’ Gloom” Meltzer, last weekend’s Edgar vs. Henderson 2 card pulled in an estimated 190,000 pay-per-view buys. Judging by the MMAPayout.com Blue Book, that would make UFC 150 the second worst-performing UFC PPV since February 2006. And what’s the #1 worst-performing card of the last six years? The UFC 147: Silva vs. Franklin 2 show from just two months earlier, which took in only 175k buys. (UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao didn’t fare much better last month with a modest 235k buys.) Sorry Fric and Frack, Christmas has been canceled this year.

A couple caveats:
Keep in mind that there was a technical issue on Saturday night where DirecTV subscribers were unable to order the UFC 150 broadcast by phone or computer, although they could still order it via their remotes, according to reports. Plus, Bendo vs. Frankie ran up against the penultimate night of the 2012 Olympics, which may have stolen a few more viewers.

That being said…


(“Sorry Frankie, but based on the terms of your pay-per-view bonus scale — as clearly stated in your contract — you actually owe us $10,000.“)

It wasn’t just UFC 150‘s live-gate that fell way below expectations. According to a new report from Dave “Doom ‘N’ Gloom” Meltzer, last weekend’s Edgar vs. Henderson 2 card pulled in an estimated 190,000 pay-per-view buys. Judging by the MMAPayout.com Blue Book, that would make UFC 150 the second worst-performing UFC PPV since February 2006. And what’s the #1 worst-performing card of the last six years? The UFC 147: Silva vs. Franklin 2 show from just two months earlier, which took in only 175k buys. (UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao didn’t fare much better last month with a modest 235k buys.) Sorry Fric and Frack, Christmas has been canceled this year.

A couple caveats:
Keep in mind that there was a technical issue on Saturday night where DirecTV subscribers were unable to order the UFC 150 broadcast by phone or computer, although they could still order it via their remotes, according to reports. Plus, Bendo vs. Frankie ran up against the penultimate night of the 2012 Olympics, which may have stolen a few more viewers.

That being said…
We’re talking about a UFC event featuring a damned title fight. Granted, Frankie Edgar has never been one of the UFC’s more bankable stars — his two headlining appearances against Gray Maynard in 2011 drew 260k and 225K buys, respectively — but maybe that should have spurred the UFC to stack the supporting card with a few more big names. Instead, UFC 150 featured a passable co-main of Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard, and some watery bullshit underneath.

While BloodyElbow is taking the UFC apologist stance — “Hardcore fans buying 200,000 for the ‘smaller’ PPVs and clearing 750,000-1,000,000 for the 3-5 ‘mega-shows’ a year while building the brand on Fox…is working fine,” according to Brent Brookhouse — I tend to disagree. This was not the goal the UFC had in mind. They wanted growth, plain and simple, not a different-yet-still-effective business model. Fans are indeed voting with their wallets. And if PPV cards can vary so wildly in terms of quality, star-power, and excitement level, you’ll start seeing more fans become cautious with their money.

What do you think? Is the fact that the UFC just pulled their two lowest PPV totals in recent history cause for alarm? Will it send a message to the UFC to change their card frequency — or the fighters they use to headline a card? Or is this really all just part of the plan?

Brockwatch 2011: With Lesnar Gone, UFC Scrambles to Make Chicken Salad Out of Summer PPV Schedule

(Pic: MMA Soldier)

It was rampant speculation time across the interwebs on Friday, after yesterday’s announcement that Brock Lesnar’s diverticulitis has returned with a vengeance. “Is Brock done?” we all wondered aloud. Is Carwin vs. dos Santos actually a better fight? Can the UFC rebound from a couple of weeks that saw the main events of UFC 130, 131 and 133 all go up in smoke? And, dear God, are Urijah Faber and Dominick Cruz next to suffer some bizarre malady, causing a reshuffling of the only PPV still left in one piece? Nobody knows.

What we do know is this: Brock Lesnar turns 34 in July and twice now since 2009 he’s seen his career indefinitely sidetracked by being the world’s only millionaire athlete to get a near fatal disease from not eating enough vegetables. Age has never been particularly kind to jumbo-sized athletes and even for a professional wrestler, Lesnar’s job history has been pretty flighty over the years. So, while we can’t say with any kind of certainty that his MMA career might be over over, Lesnar’s second bout with a strange digestive infection nobody had ever heard of before two years ago can’t exactly be considered a good thing. Apparently, the first time he went through this the UFC forgot to tell us that diverticulitis is something that sticks around for the rest of your life. Whoops. But we digress. What it all means for Lesnar, dos Santos, Carwin and – most importantly – you, after the jump.

(Pic: MMA Soldier)

It was rampant speculation time across the interwebs on Friday, after yesterday’s announcement that Brock Lesnar’s diverticulitis has returned with a vengeance. “Is Brock done?” we all wondered aloud. Is Carwin vs. dos Santos actually a better fight? Can the UFC rebound from a couple of weeks that saw the main events of UFC 130, 131 and 133 all go up in smoke? And, dear God, are Urijah Faber and Dominick Cruz next to suffer some bizarre malady, causing a reshuffling of the only PPV still left in one piece? Nobody knows.

What we do know is this: Brock Lesnar turns 34 in July and twice now since 2009 he’s seen his career indefinitely sidetracked by being the world’s only millionaire athlete to get a near fatal disease from not eating enough vegetables. Age has never been particularly kind to jumbo-sized athletes and even for a professional wrestler, Lesnar’s job history has been pretty flighty over the years. So, while we can’t say with any kind of certainty that his MMA career might be over over, Lesnar’s second bout with a strange digestive infection nobody had ever heard of before two years ago can’t exactly be considered a good thing. Apparently, the first time he went through this the UFC forgot to tell us that diverticulitis is something that sticks around for the rest of your life. Whoops. But we digress. What it all means for Lesnar, dos Santos, Carwin and – most importantly – you, after the jump.

Dos Santos has also been thrust into kind of a tight spot here. Here he is coming off an altogether affable – if not star-making – turn on TUF 13 and for the second time in recent memory he’s seen a big-money fight fall through due to an injury to the other guy. Now he inherits a slightly lesser known but arguably more dangerous opponent. At this point, the dude should just be happy if Carwin makes it to the cage, but (in case you’re interested) he’s taking a “same shit, different opponent” kind of approach to this last-minute switcheroo.

“I got a little upset about this change, but I’m happy that the UFC got another opponent for me,” dos Santos told Sherdog this week. “Carwin is an excellent fighter and deserves all my respect. His boxing skills are great. It’s gonna be a great fight with tough blows from both sides. I would say that it will end by knockout.”

Dos Santos rightly opened as a pretty significant favorite over Carwin, who will be staring down the barrel of his own 11-month absence from the cage by fight night. Oddly though, at least some of the early money appears to be falling to Carwin. According to reports, dos Santos opened at around -265, but has since seen those odds shrink to -225. That means there are a significant number of gamblers who might just think Carwin can win here. Winning would be a great thing for The Engineer, who came within a breath of claiming the UFC heavyweight title at UFC 116 and still, still at some point needs to give us his side of how his name wound up on that one list we’ve all forgotten about already.

As for the company itself, well, this change pretty much couldn’t come at a worse time, what with the upcoming PPV schedule already ailing. To add insult to injury, TUF 13 ratings slipped again this week, further fueling our speculation that a season of reality TV was exactly the wrong way to try to promote Lesnar in the first place. During 2010, the big fella was the company’s biggest (and best paid) PPV draw. At this point though – even if he is able to return to active competition – you have to wonder just how much the UFC can count on him as a reliable future PPV draw.