Once in a while, Joe Silva likes to set up a card with an easy narrative. ‘Name’ fighters are given tough, but not too challenging opponents. We all pretend it’s a compelling matchup even though everyone knows who’s going to win. The fight happens, the good guy prevails, and it’s on to the next one. Such is the case with UFC 185.
The problem with this kind of card is that the bookies know who’s going to win too. This makes earning a buck off of watching people fight a bit of a challenge. Unless of course you like lengthy parlays or winning quarters off of 5-1 favourites. Still, this is MMA after all and crazier things have happened than a longshot winning a fight. Take for instance, the fact that Clay Guida has beaten both men vying for the lightweight title. Yes, this Clay Guida.
So with that in mind, let’s take a more in depth look at tomorrow’s UFC 185 card and see where we can earn some money to contribute towards CagePotato’s Patreon*.
*By “CagePotato’s Patreon” I of course mean blackjack and hookers.
By Sam Stilson
Once in a while, Joe Silva likes to set up a card with an easy narrative. ‘Name’ fighters are given tough, but not too challenging opponents. We all pretend it’s a compelling matchup even though everyone knows who’s going to win. The fight happens, the good guy prevails, and it’s on to the next one. Such is the case with UFC 185.
The problem with this kind of card is that the bookies know who’s going to win too. This makes earning a buck off of watching people fight a bit of a challenge. Unless of course you like lengthy parlays or winning quarters off of 5-1 favourites. Still, this is MMA after all and crazier things have happened than a longshot winning a fight. Take for instance, the fact that Clay Guida has beaten both men vying for the lightweight title. Yes, this Clay Guida.
So with that in mind, let’s take a more in depth look at tomorrow’s UFC 185 card and see where we can earn some money to contribute towards CagePotato’s Patreon*.
*By “CagePotato’s Patreon” I of course mean blackjack and hookers.
Like a smaller, stronger Rodney Dangerfield with penciled-on eyebrows, Carla Esparza just can’t get any respect. She’s been the 115 lb. champ for two years (between TUF 20 and other promotions) and has beaten a good chunk of her division already. We all thought Rose Namajunas was going to wreck her with her creative striking and it wasn’t even close. Wrestlers who can’t strike, beat strikers who can’t wrestle. At these odds you have to take the champ.
If this was a kickboxing match, Roy wouldn’t have a chance in hell. But it’s not, it’s MMA, and sometimes all you need is a big overhand right. It worked for Ben Rothwell and Bigfoot Silva against the Reem and I don’t think his chin has gotten any stronger. Fatty trumps Juicehead for a decent payout.
You might be asking, if this fight is so close, how come “The Immortal” isn’t considered a great underdog bet? He pays out 3 to 1! Well, let me direct you to this short clip and then tell me if you feel the same way. There’s more if you’re not convinced.
Johny absolutely deserves to be the favourite in this match-up, but Matt Brown is still being waaaay undervalued. Basically it comes down to game-plan. If Hendricks grinds out a wrestlefest, he’ll win, but if he strikes with Brown like he did with Lawler, this something of a coin-flip. “The Immortal” has a more diverse striking arsenal than Hendricks and also happens to be the toughest sum’bitch on the planet. Whoever emerges victorious deserves the title shot and either man deserves a bet.
With just one title defense to his name, Anthony Pettis has the opportunity to make Rafael dos Anjos victim No. 2 of his championship reign at UFC 185.
Even in his brief stint as champion, Showtime has proven to be worthy of anchoring a pay-per-v…
With just one title defense to his name, Anthony Pettis has the opportunity to make Rafael dos Anjos victim No. 2 of his championship reign at UFC 185.
Even in his brief stint as champion, Showtime has proven to be worthy of anchoring a pay-per-view card. So far, he’s taken the belt from Benson Henderson with a lightning-quick submission and become the first man to finish former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez.
Now he turns his sights to Rafael dos Anjos. The 30-year-old Brazilian is an unassuming challenger, but a difficult one nonetheless. Here’s a look at how the two combatants stack up.
What They’re Saying
It’s no secret that most of the hype in this fight centers around the champion. Pettis appears to have all the ingredients to become part of the next wave of stars in the UFC. He has the belt, a style that excites and at 28 years old, he’s young enough to keep fighting at the top of his game for years.
Dos Anjos has been impressive in his rise to No. 1 contender status. His knockout of Henderson and subsequent decision win over Nate Diaz demonstrated how dangerous he is as an opponent. It still hasn’t kept him from being a 7-2 underdog at UFC 185 according to Odds Shark, though.
When it comes to pinpointing exactly why Pettis is an overwhelming favorite, it’s difficult to point to exactly one reason. Both fighters are well-rounded, it’s just that Pettis seems to have the slight advantage wherever the bout goes.
Kenny Florian is among those who think Pettis‘ X-factor will be what gives him an edge over his opponent on Saturday night via Fox Sports:
Pettis is one of those guys who shows what he’s made of, how talented he is, every time. He’s fearless, and not in a way that makes him vulnerable. He’s always still strategic, still technical and still smart. He just shows that flash of pizzaz when it’s needed. I think Pettis will be able to hurt Dos Anjos and finish him in the third round.
Not everyone is on board with the champion, though. KhabibNurmagomedov—a man who has already defeated dos Anjos—believes there will be a new champion.
“I think [dos Anjos] smashes [Pettis] in striking and I think he smashes him on the ground,” Nurmagomedov told Marc Raimondiof MMAFighting.com. “Dos Anjos is no easy man. … A lot of people watch and think I beat him easy, but it was not easy. It was no easy fight.”
Of course, there’s an ulterior motive to Nurmagomedov‘s analysis of this bout. He would like nothing more than to get under the skin of the champion. With a record of 22-0, he appears to be on a collision course with whoever’s holding the belt.
It behooves Nurmagomedov to believe that he can win the strap because he’s already defeated the fighter who has it. However, the odds still say that Nurmagomedov will have to overcome Showtime if he eventually wants to add “UFC champion” to his resume.
Prediction
When analyizing these two fighters, there’s one difference that sticks out—defense.
Put simply, Pettis excels at it, while dos Anjos does not. Reed Kuhn of MMAOddsBreaker.com puts it into a statistical perspective:
There’s a path to victory for the challenger. His grappling is not to be trifled with and he has some power on his feet. If he’s able to consistently force the fight into close quarters and wear Pettis down before dragging him to the mat, he could grind out a decision.
That’s much easier said than done.
What’s much more likely to happen is a stand-up affair. Dos Anjos may try to clinch and score takedowns early, but Pettis‘ has good takedown defense that should force the Brazilian to stand and exchange.
Over the course of five rounds, that’s bound to cause some trouble. Pettis should be able to add yet another highlight finish to his ever-growing reel as he puts title defense No. 2 in the books.
An established and proven champion shares the spotlight with the promotion’s newest titleholder in its brand new division on Saturday night at UFC 185 in Dallas, Texas. In the main event, UFC lightweight champion Anthony “Showtime” Pettis makes his sec…
An established and proven champion shares the spotlight with the promotion’s newest titleholder in its brand new division on Saturday night at UFC 185 in Dallas, Texas. In the main event, UFC lightweight champion Anthony “Showtime” Pettis makes his second defense after a long history of excellence with the promotion against No. 1 contender Rafael dos Anjos.
Women’s strawweight belt holder Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza makes her first defense. She puts her title on the line in the co-feature against the No. 1 contender to her title Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
The action takes place at the American Airlines Arena and there’s a total of 12 scheduled bouts. Three preliminary scraps begin the evening on UFC Fight Pass.
From there four more prelims will be broadcast on FX. The main card kicks off on pay-per-view and has a healthy five fights for fans who buy in. Here’s the card, viewing information and predictions for every fight, as well as picks for fight-night bonuses.
Main Card Analysis
Cariaso vs. Cejudo
The Weight Issue
There’s just about as much intrigue for the weigh-in with this bout as there is for the actual fight. No, Chris Cariaso and Henry Cejudo don’t have any notable bad blood. It’s that Cejudo, an Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling, has had a horrible time making weight at flyweight for previously scheduled bouts in the UFC and Legacy FC.
After his last issue, he was forced to compete at bantamweight and Cejudo easily defeated Dustin Kimura back in Dec. 2014. With another—and possibly final—chance to make 125 pounds, he takes on Cariaso.
The weight deal has become such a compelling backstory, MMA Junkie reports that there are outlets actually taking prop bets on whether Cejudo is over or under the 125-pound weight limit.
In an interview with Ariel Helwani of MMA Fighting, Cejudo claims to have “reverted to a prison lifestyle” in an effort to make 125 pounds. Come Friday night, the scales will eliminate one piece of the intrigue surrounding this bout.
Once Cejudo gets into the Octagon he’s pretty good. Kimura is a tough fighter and Cejudo dominated him. He stuffed every takedown attempt and had 84 percent striking defense in the bout. When you add that striking skill with Cejudo‘s obvious wrestling prowess, you see part of the reason the UFC is giving Cejudo every opportunity to succeed.
The other side of that is because he’s an Olympic gold medalist whose inclusion with the promotion is easy to market.
Cariaso is Not Intimidated
After having fought and lost in a main event back at UFC 177 against flyweight champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, Cariaso feels he’s better prepared for a main card scrap than Cejudo. He told Thomas Gerbasi of UFC.com:
“I see a guy with two arms, two legs, two hands, and with a big head ready to get punched. He’s a good athlete, but I’m a great athlete myself.”
Why Cejudo Will Win
Assuming he makes weight, Cejudo‘s low center of gravity and heavy hands will make for a difficult match for Cariaso. Kamikaze has the edge in speed, but it isn’t significant enough to keep Cejudo from driving him to the mat at some point.
Once the fight goes there, it’s a one-sided affair in favor of Cejudo.
Nelson vs. Overeem
There Will Almost Certainly Be a Knockout
These two big heavyweights bring anvils for fists and increasingly vulnerable chins as their careers progress. Nelson has only been stopped once, but it came in his last fight against Mark “The Super Samoan” Hunt, and it was the kind of knockout that leaves a mark…literally and figuratively.
The average fight time for both men is less than nine minutes. That means if this fight reaches the third round, it’ll be a miracle.
Notable Statistic: Seven Straight Losses by KO/TKO
The last seven times Overeem has tasted defeat, he’s lost by KO or TKO. This streak dates back to 2006 when he lost to Fabricio Werdum via kimura in PRIDE. The last time he lost by decision was to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in 2005.
On the flip side, Overeem has captured five of his last seven victories by KO/TKO. Don’t blink when this one is on. It could be over quickly.
Overeem Patient?
Despite what the numbers and tendencies say, Overeem is indicating he’ll take the cerebral approach to the fight with Nelson. He told E. Spencer Kyte of UFC.com:
I’m a fighter that naturally wants to knock my opponent out. The will is there, but it takes two to tango. You watch tape, you study, you see where the holes are, where the opportunities are at, and sometimes it’s there, sometimes it’s not.
All of that sounds dandy, but when two heavyweights with immense KO power step into The Octagon, it’s best to depend on conventional logic. This fight will end in KO.
Why Overeem Will Win
Nelson is a better wrestler, but he doesn’t have the explosion or cardio to take Overeem to the mat. Nelson’s takedown success percentage is just 17 percent, while Overeem stuffs 70 percent of the takedowns attempted against him.
That leads me to believe this bout will primarily take place standing. In that category, Overeem clearly has the advantage. He’s quicker and he will enjoy a significant eight-inch reach advantage. Look for Overeem to win by a KO of potentially epic proportions.
Hendricks vs. Brown
How Does Big Rigg Bounce Back From Loss?
Per Shaun Al-Shatti of MMA Fighting, former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks feels like he’s “back in college” after becoming leaner in an effort to stay at 170 pounds.
The naturally thick build that Hendricks usually carries might be a thing of the past as he attempts to rebound from his loss to “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler at UFC 181. A change to his lifestyle was in order to attempt to climb the ladder to regain his title.
The first step will be a tough one against the rugged Matt Brown. Both men have good-to-great power, but Brown’s chin and resilience are a thing of legend. He’s proven he can take vicious shots as he did against Erick Silva, and come back to win.
If Hendricks doesn’t fall back on his wrestling and instead pursues the knockout, this could very well be the Fight of the Night.
A Glimpse Into Camp Hendricks
With Hendricks’ more lean physique a topic of conversation, the former champ tweeted this video that shows the work he’s putting in ahead of the bout with Brown.
Notable Statistic: Four Straight Bonuses
Wherever Brown goes, fight-night bonuses seem to follow. He’s earned extra cash in each of his last four fights. Three of those bouts have been the Fight of the Night on their respective cards. This one is my pick to grab the honors on Saturday night as well.
Why Hendricks Will Win
Brown is as tough as they come, but he doesn’t have the power or striking efficiency to put together punches the way Lawler did.
As it pertains to physical strength, Hendricks is a bull once the fight turns into a wrestling match. He’ll have to watch Brown’s tricky submission game, but ultimately Hendricks will wear Brown down and take the victory in an epic fight.
Esparza vs. Jedrzejczyk
Carrying the Strawweights
As the first-ever strawweight champion, Carla Esparza has inherited the responsibility of legitimizing the division. Sharing that responsibility is her opponent Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
This bout is a classic matchup between a grappler (Esparza) and striker (Jedrzejczyk). It could be a great fight that helps to launch the division even more than the The Ultimate Fighter Season 20 did.
The Weird Staredown
Some fighters have quirky habits and Jedrzejczyk is definitely in that number. During the staredowns before her fights, she likes to crouch about waist high in what makes for an odd scene. She told John Morgan and Ken Hathaway of MMA Junkie why she does this:
“I like to look into the eyes of my opponents,” Jedrzejczyk said. “I can see what I can expect – if she’s afraid or not,” Jedrzejczyk said. “Then I feel more confident, more comfortable, more powerful.”
Alrighty. That sounds a lot like the drama before a fatality from Mortal Kombat or something, but whatever works.
Notable Statistic: No Takedowns
Jedrzejczyk has had only eight professional fights, but she hasn’t secured one takedown in her MMA career. Obviously, she’s a striker but that represents a pretty significant hole in her game.
Why Esparza Will Win
Jedrzejczyk doesn’t possess the power to dramatically stop Esparza. The challenger only has a 25 percent KO rate in her career. Her average fight lasts 15 minutes. There’s no way she’ll be able to win a grind-it-out battle against Esparza.
This fight is going to go to the ground and Esparza will exert her dominance there.
Pettis vs. Dos Anjos
Can Pettis Continue to Prove He’s Elite?
Showtime has defeated Benson Henderson twice in his career, Donald Cerrone, Joe Lauzon, Gilbert Melendez and Jeremy Stephens.
Even in his two professional losses, he’s never really been hurt, There’s no questioning his talent and dynamic ability. However, on Saturday he faces a no-flash, no-frills, dangerous opponent in Dos Anjos. This is a significant test as Pettis attempts to line up the challengers en route to legendary status.
Not Going to Talk a Big Game
It would seem Pettis shouldn’t have to sell himself to anyone. His athleticism and skill should do all the talking. Still, the lightweight champion has to answer questions about his popularity—or lack thereof. Pettis told Yahoo Sports’ Kevin Iole:
“If I went out and talked crazy, I could get some attention, but then I’d be acting like something I’m not and I’m not interested in doing that.”
Pettis is humble, but all about business in the Octagon. Being ConorMcGregor works for ConorMcGregor. It’s good Pettis isn’t feeling the need to alter who he is to get a few more fans.
Notable Statistic: 77-15
That is the combined record of the last three men Pettis has faced and defeated—each of them by stoppage. The names of those fighters are: Melendez, Cerrone and Henderson. That’s a pretty impressive list of fighters to have faced, let alone to have beaten.
Why Pettis Will Win
The champion simply has too many facets to his game. Pettis is tough to hit, comfortable off his back, quick and unpredictable in his striking and he’s tough. When Melendez pressed him and tried to force the action, he landed some shots, but Pettis didn’t fade as some might have expected.
Instead, he bit down on his mouthpiece and landed counter punches that changed the fight.
Dos Anjos is likely going to try to apply pressure himself. Pettis will be even more prepared for this strategy as he’s just seen it in his last fight. While I wouldn’t rule out a highlight-reel head kick from the champion, I feel more comfortable predicting a submission win in the second round.
A guillotine choke that starts with the champion on the bottom seems like a logical ending.
There’s a scene in The Simpsons episode, “The Twisted World of Marge Simpson” where a fight breaks out between Fat Tony’s gang and the Yakuza. While the battle rages in front of the Simpson residence, there is one Yakuza dressed in a white suit that stands with his arms crossed doing nothing. Seeing this, Homer remarks to Marge, “That little guy hasn’t done anything yet. Look at him. He’s going to do something, and you know it’s going to be good.” That’s how I felt watching UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis face Gilbert Melendez in the co-headlining fight at UFC 181.
There’s a scene in The Simpsons episode, “The Twisted World of Marge Simpson” where a fight breaks out between Fat Tony’s gang and the Yakuza. While the battle rages in front of the Simpson residence, there is one Yakuza dressed in a white suit that stands with his arms crossed doing nothing. Seeing this, Homer remarks to Marge, “That little guy hasn’t done anything yet. Look at him. He’s going to do something, and you know it’s going to be good.” That’s how I felt watching UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis face Gilbert Melendez in the co-headlining fight at UFC 181.
When the fight began it was clear that Melendez, the then number one ranked UFC lightweight contender, intended to put as much pressure as possible on the defending champ. Melendez’s objective was to remove space and time, two things Pettis has used to great effect, from the champ’s arsenal.
Melendez, the former Strikeforce lightweight champion, was successful for most of the first round. Sure, he ate a couple kicks, but he was never in danger. Melendez controlled the pace and location of the fight for the majority of those five minutes. As cageside commentator Joe Rogan remarked as the first stanza came to a close, “This is the perfect fight for Gilbert right now. If he keeps this up, this is the type of fight he can win.”
When the fighters went to their corners, Jake Shields remarked to Melendez, “He doesn’t like your pressure.” And from the way Pettis looked as the second round was set to begin, mouth open and sucking air while his stomach heaved; those words did not come across as idle cornerman bullshit. Across from Pettis stood a confident and composed Melendez.
When the second round began, Melendez again pressured Pettis, cutting off angles and keeping the champion on his heels. The challenger kept Pettis on the defensive.
Until he didn’t.
After a brief striking exchange, Melendez dove in for a single leg takedown. It wasn’t a perfect attempt. In the process of going for that takedown, Melendez left his neck exposed for a split second, and that’s when Pettis did something good.
Pettis latched on to Melendez’s exposed neck and dropped into guard, immediately tightening a guillotine choke. The choke forced Melendez to tap for this first time in his twelve-year professional mixed martial arts career.
It was the second time in two fights that Pettis had finished a fight with a spectacular submission. The first, an armbar on then UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson at UFC 164, earned Pettis UFC gold.
Prior to the two recent submission victories, Pettis had earned a TKO victory over Donald Cerrone and a knockout win over Joe Lauzon. Both of those wins, like his triumphs over Melendez and Henderson earned him Fight Night Bonus awards.
Just how dominating has Pettis been in his last four contests? Well, if time spent in the Octagon is something you put stock in, he’s been overwhelming. In those four fights, Pettis has spent a total of just over 15 minutes in the Octagon. Melendez was the only fighter that took him out of the first round in those contests.
Another thing to consider is the fact that Pettis is walking through legitimate top-level competition during his run. His wins are not like the victories of UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey, where the competition is based on some vague idea of potential. Melendez, Henderson and Cerrone have long been recognized as top tier UFC talent.
Another thing to take into account is the fact that Pettis does not play it safe, a charge that has been leveled at UFC featherweight champion and current number two ranked UFC pound-for-pound competitor Jose Aldo. Playing it safe or laying back and looking for a decision are not things Pettis has shown any affinity for.
Pettis has been so overwhelming as of late that terms thrown around by Rogan, such as “monster,” “devastating,” “nasty,” “dynamic,” and “scary” seem to miss the mark when it comes to Pettis. At this point, the only fighter you can compare him to in the “what will we see next from him” category is UFC light heavyweight champion and number one pound-for-pound fighter Jon Jones.
Perhaps the most fitting word to describe Pettis is the nickname that is emblazoned across his shoulder blades – “Showtime”. It’s one of the few times in MMA that a fighter’s nickname is 100 percent accurate.
Sadly, we haven’t seen all that much of Pettis. Since making his UFC debut in June 2011 injuries have limited him to just six trips to the Octagon. Hell, UFC welterweight Neil Magny fought inside the Octagon six times between Pettis’ last two fights. In the ultimate “What have you done for me lately?” sport, it’s hard to fathom how much attention Pettis would be receiving if he had managed to stay healthy and active.
If Pettis pull off another spectacular fight ending move when he faces number one ranked contender Rafael dos Anjos on Saturday at UFC 185, he may just become the fighter that gets fans to once again focus on the sub-170 pound UFC fighters — a group that has been overlooked by many fight fans since the heyday of B.J. Penn.
This is Anthony Pettis’ chance to really get his reign on a roll.
After his early UFC days were afflicted by injury and unforeseen circumstances, Pettis has been sublime during the last 18 months or so. If he can jet past Rafael dos Anjos on Saturday a…
This is Anthony Pettis‘ chance to really get his reign on a roll.
After his early UFC days were afflicted by injury and unforeseen circumstances, Pettis has been sublime during the last 18 months or so. If he can jet past Rafael dos Anjos on Saturday at UFC 185, it could go a long way toward establishing him as the breakout superstar nearly everyone believes he can be.
UFC 185 on the whole feels like a potential statement event. With a compelling main card and prelims temporarily moved off Fox Sports 1 and onto FX, this could be the organization’s chance to begin putting the difficult first few months of 2015 behind it.
There is a lot to like about this fight card, but how exactly will it play out?
Glad you asked. Here, Bleacher Report lead MMA writers Chad Dundas (that’s me) and Jonathan Snowden polish up their time machines and make bold predictions about how the weekend will go down.
UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis and No. 1 contender Rafael dos Anjos are scheduled to take the center of the Octagon Saturday inside of the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The stakes are about as high as it gets in this one, with the winner…
UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis and No. 1 contender Rafael dos Anjos are scheduled to take the center of the Octagon Saturday inside of the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The stakes are about as high as it gets in this one, with the winner walking away the undisputed champion of the 155-pound division.
Pettis—who defended his crown for the first time against Gilbert Melendez at UFC 181 in December—steps into the cage on a five-fight winning streak. His opponent—who last saw action in a one-sided beatdown of Nate Diaz at UFC on Fox 13 just a week later—enters the cage having won eight of his last nine bouts.
It may not hold the sort of popular appeal that VitorBelfort vs. Chris Weidman or Jon Jones vs. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson may have, but UFC 185‘s main event is sure to entertain.
Make your way through the slides as we break down the main event from head to toe.
With just one title defense to his name, 
