Tag: Renan Barao

It’s probably not a secret to anyone that the UFC 169 headliner between Renan Barao and Urijah Faber is a competitive tilt on paper.

Most would say Barao is the favorite, propelled by his nine-year unbeaten streak and a prior win over Faber, but he’s got his hands full with the Team Alpha Male product.

The same is true for Faber, who has his hands full with a Brazilian wrecking ball (who hasn’t been remotely pushed in the UFC) and looks to defend the true bantamweight title for the first time.

For either man to be successful against the other, there are key elements of engagement that they must focus on.

Looking at the challenger, it’s pretty clear that he isn’t going to outpoint Barao on the feet. The champion simply has too many ways to attack, too much skill and too much technical expertise. That doesn’t mean that the road to victory is closed, however.

Faber is at his best when he’s selective, but highly committed, to his striking game. He’s just shifty enough to surprise opponents when he pursues with power punches, and if he blends those skills properly against Barao, he has a chance.

The key for The California Kid is to rely on his improved footwork to open angles and then blast through the openings he creates with one of his patented blitzes. Barao is undeniably good, but he’s also hittable, and Faber is as good as anyone at finishing when he’s got a guy on the run.

If he hurts Barao, he needs to pursue relentlessly for a TKO or try and impose a bad position on the champion and secure a submission. It’s how Faber wins fights, and if he’s to win this one, his avenue for success is no different.

Barao, looking for his first win as the proper bantamweight champion, has a path to victory similar to the path he took to a win over Faber at UFC 149. He needs to keep the fight upright and score from range, beat up the challenger and take home a decision.

The reality is that he isn’t a finisher standing up, despite what promoters want people with disposable income for a pay-per-view to think. He knocked Eddie Wineland out spectacularly, but that was the first time he stopped someone with something other than a submission since 2009. In 31 career wins, less than a quarter have been by (T)KO.

With that in mind, and the fact that his threatening submission game may not be overly reliable against a grappler as talented as Faber, it’s wise for the champion to fight for points and see where it goes. Fans probably don’t want to hear that, but that makes it no less of a smart game plan.

With a more varied striking game, flashier combinations and something of a speed advantage, impressing the judges for 25 minutes is the easiest way for Barao to retain. It’s possible, though unlikely, it could net him a finish if he catches Faber coming in for a flurry. But even if that never presents itself, he’s likely to run away with a stand-up fight.

So it goes for the first official UFC bantamweight title defense not to be performed by Dominick Cruz. With the interim tag removed from his reign, Barao should look to ride his vaunted striking to a decision win. Faber should rely on his power and aggression to try and keep him from doing so inside the distance.

Both men have a clear path to victory, but only one will walk it. The world finds out which one on Super Saturday in Newark.

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UFC 169 goes down Saturday night in Newark, N.J., a short jaunt down the Jersey Turnpike from where the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks will wage a fight of their own in Sunday’s Super Bowl XLVIII.

At the top of the card is a rematch between Renan Barao, a former interim champion made legitimate by another injury to his predecessor, and Urijah Faber, a former contender who’s gone 4-0 since losing to him in 2012.

The fight is a clash of styles in every imaginable way, with Barao‘s young gun looking to best the veteran presence of Faber. Barao is completely weaponized on the feet, lashing kicks and combinations with free ferocity, while Faber is a man you absolutely do not want to tangle with in a grappling exchange.

The first bout was fairly one-sided considering the skill of Faber, a man all but unbeatable in fights that aren’t for a title. Barao badly battered him in a decision win, but the performance fell on deaf ears, as it headlined one of the worst cards in the history of the UFC.

This time, the two meet in the headliner of one of the promotion’s tent-pole pay-per-views the Saturday night before the Super Bowl, a night reserved for the likes of Anderson Silva, Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz in the past.

Smart odds would likely suggest a decision is in the offing once again, as both men are crafty and durable, but there are avenues to a shorter night’s work for each.

Barao holds a decided advantage in technical acumen while standing and has a much wider range of attacks at his disposal. If he elected to truly put it on Faber at any point, it isn’t hard to imagine him overwhelming the challenger with precision and volume if the chance presents itself.

For his part, Faber probably has the advantage in raw power and pure bulldog tenacity. He’s mentally unbreakable, and if he decides to push forward and swing for the fences, he might score a knockdown or force Barao to the ground, where he could push the issue in the form of his hyper-aggressive submission game.

It’s interesting, because both men hold advantages, but each is capable enough in the playground of the other to keep things close.

Barao may have a stand-up advantage, but Faber can hang enough with his power and experience to make it interesting.

Meanwhile, Faber is a terrifying proposition on the ground, but Barao is a black belt who comes from a good camp. He’s also no picnic to take down.

The path seems obvious for two guys so closely matched. There will be fireworks, and depending on where the fight is contested, it’s a lock to flesh itself out in favor of one man or another. It’s only a matter of whether or not that happens inside of 25 minutes, and that’s in the hands of the guys competing.

Follow me on Twitter @matthewjryder

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It’s the biggest betting weekend of the year around the world, with the Super Bowl taking place on Sunday night in New Jersey. Before the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks settle their differences on the gridiron though, the UFC will allow 24 men to do the same inside the Octagon.

There’s already been plenty of talk about the card in terms of odds and good bets, but the main event between Urijah Faber and Renan Barao deserves a little special attention.

Get your bookie on the phone—we’ve got you covered on odds to look for.

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