A highly anticipated rematch between Tyron Woodley and Stephen Thompson for the UFC Welterweight Championship highlights the UFC 209 main card on Saturday night in Las Vegas.
The first matchup played out as close as a fight can with the bout going to a majority draw and Woodley walking away with his belt still wrapped around his waist.
Thompson will have the opportunity to take the belt from the champion again, and Vegas seems to think that he’s going to do it. Wonderboy goes into the bout as a 5-8 favorite, according to OddsShark.
It’s an intriguing line for an intriguing fight that headlines a card that has more than one bout that is worth noting.
Here’s a look at the full main card along with the rest of the lines from OddsShark and predictions for some of the featured bouts.
Rashad Evans vs. Dan Kelly
The pick here is Rashad Evans, but Dan Kelly might be the most live dog on the card outside of Tyron Woodley, who is only a slight favorite and holds a championship belt.
This marks Evans first foray into the middleweight division after spending the majority of his career as a light heavyweight. Theoretically, a move down should make him even more dangerous, but there is a risky aspect to that where bettors are siding with something they haven’t seen.
It’s also unclear exactly how much Evans has left to give in the Octagon. Following a two-year layoff, Suga has dropped two fights in a row now to Glover Teixeira and Ryan Bader.
Kelly will come in as the underdog. Despite holding a three-fight win streak, going against someone as well-known as Evans has him playing that role, and it’s one that he’s comfortable playing.
“I don’t mind. Every fight I’m the underdog,” Kelly said, per Damon Martin of Fox Sports. “They don’t give me a chance to beat a lot of guys. As long as they give me the matchups and I put on good performances, I don’t care what they say.”
Evans still gets the nod here. He’s simply faced the better competition, and there’s a lot to like about the idea of him going down to 185 pounds.
Still, Kelly has a funky style as a former Olympic judoka, and we know that he can be successful at this weight. That’s not something we know about Evans.
Buyer beware for Suga supporters on Saturday night.
Lando Vannata vs. David Teymur
The lightweight scrap between Lando Vannata and David Teymur might be the biggest downgrade in UFC co-main event history. This is the spot that was once Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson, but the Russian was forced out of the bout due to weight-cutting issues, per MMAjunkie.
There’s no way this fight can live up to the hype surrounding Nurmagomedov and Ferguson, but it is an intriguing lightweight prospect bout in its own right.
Vannata comes in as the heavy favorite with a knockout win over John Makdessi and a submission loss to Ferguson on his UFC resume. Teymur, meanwhile, has two finishes in as many fights under the UFC banner, albeit against weaker competition in Martin Svensson and Jason Novelli.
These two both love to strike but are very different in their approach. Patrick Wyman of Bleacher Report broke down the contrast of styles:
This is a fantastic matchup of two skilled but very different strikers: Teymur is much more of a standard kickboxer, while Vannata‘s approach combines creative strike selection with a great deal of movement.
That’s a compelling combination. Teymur will likely try to stick Vannata at range and trade kicks, while Vannata would probably like to dart in and out with combinations. The difference in that kind of game should be Vannata‘s takedowns, which he can set up with his strikes.
That sets the terms of engagement, where it obviously behooves Vannata to get this fight to the mat, and that’s exactly what his game plan should be.
Expect Vannata to stand and exchange just long enough to set up takedowns, where he will finish the bout by ground and pound.
Stephen Thompson vs. Tyron Woodley
With Nurmagomedov-Ferguson off the card, this is the undisputed highlight of the night. The last time Thompson and Woodley fought it went to majority draw, and this fight has the potential to be even better as both have had a full camp to watch the fight and game plan for a rematch.
Much like the co-main event, there’s a distinct difference in styles at play here. Woodley is a dangerous striker in how much power he can generate in one punch, but he won’t be stringing together combinations. Wonderboy‘s karate striking, on the other hand, is much more versatile.
It’s that versatile striking that holds the answers for Wonderboy. If he’s going to avoid having Woodley in his grill all night, he’s going to have to apply the pressure himself.
As Connor Ruebusch noted, volume might be the determining factor for Thompson in this fight:
Even if Thompson throws all that volume, though, it leaves him susceptible to the counter right hand from Woodley. It’s a punch that represents the best in his arsenal and has fight-ending capabilities.
But perhaps the biggest adjustment that could come in this fight is Woodley‘s application of his wrestling. In the first fight, the champion took Thompson down easily in the first round and spent the majority of the five minutes in top position causing damage.
Having seen the advantage, you’d think Woodley would spend the rest of the fight taking Thompson down and mauling him, right? Nope. He never attempted another takedown the rest of the fight.
That should change this time around. With time to watch the first fight and realize the advantage he had, Woodley should go with a more wrestling-heavy approach here, and that would pay off with a more emphatic performance this time around.
Thompson will have his moments and even win a round or two, but if Woodley looks to neutralize Wonderboy rather than play into his game, he’s going to walk away with his title run intact.
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