Erick Silva and Thiago Silva: A Night of Disappointments

UFC Fight Night 29 was an interesting event for many of the wrong reasons. Demian Maia’s loss to Jake Shields threw the welterweight division further down the path of confusion, Thiago Silva and Matt Hamill re-enacted Kimbo Slice versus Houston Alexand…

UFC Fight Night 29 was an interesting event for many of the wrong reasons. Demian Maia’s loss to Jake Shields threw the welterweight division further down the path of confusion, Thiago Silva and Matt Hamill re-enacted Kimbo Slice versus Houston Alexander, and Joey Beltran managed to make Fabio Maldonado look sharp on the feet.

Even with some bad fights on Wednesday, however, stories unfold through the various stanzas, twists and turns. Some endings are foreshadowed in the opening act, such as Dong Hyun Kim’s knockout of Erick Silva. Other fights take a complete turnaround as the bout progresses, such as Thiago Silva versus Matt Hamill.

 

Erick Silva: Live by the Sword, Die by the Sword

To get straight down to business, Erick Silva was surprisingly starched by Dong Hyun Kim. “Stun Gun” has always been a peculiar nickname for Kim, with 10 of his 18 career wins coming by way of a grinding decision victory, but he certainly lived up the the moniker in this bout.

Kim is peculiar as a striker because his striking manages to commit the dual cardinal sins of being both wild and predictable. Normally a fighter who does unorthodox things is a little intimidating because of the “anything can happen” factor, but Kim will pick a showy move and abuse it repeatedly throughout the length of a bout.

Against Sean Pierson, Kim threw more crane kicks than you can count on both hands, and I shouldn’t have to point out that this is probably too many. Against Silva, however, it was the spinning backfist that Kim missed several times but repeatedly attempted anyway.

One of the points that this fight so beautifully illustrated is that if a fighter can wrestle so well that it forces a compensation in striking method from his opponent, he can start outstriking them too. Just as with Cain Velasquez versus Junior dos Santos or Georges St. Pierre versus anyone: If a fighter has to focus on stuffing takedowns, he will more than likely open himself up for strikes.

Erick Silva punches with his non-striking hand low. This is pretty common among strikers attempting to compensate for a lack of wrestling pedigree. Junior dos Santos does it routinely. It basically means that while Silva tries his luck at taking his opponent’s head off as they come in, he will still have an underhook should he miss.

I am sure that I don’t have to point out the shortcomings of this method. Boxers realized way back when that the most common instance in which to get knocked out is in exchanging punches. Gradually word got around that keeping the non-punching hand high could minimize the risk of such embarrassments.

Here is Georges Carpentier demonstrating it way back in the 1920s.

One can punch with the non-punching hand out of position, but something else should be done to alleviate the ever-present danger of an exchange. The head should be moved, a side step should be incorporated or the opponent’s hand should be checked. Silva did none of these things and got caught standing straight upright by Kim, who also had his non-punching hand low, but moved his head to avoid Silva’s punch.

Silva was unfortunate to get caught against an opponent who has never exhibited especially skilled striking, but carrying the hands low to hinder the wrestler is a double-edged sword. Chuck Liddell lived and died by it in the Octagon and it will work the same way for others.

Say what you want about Quinton Jackson, but even at his worst he was one of the best fighters in the world at stuffing takedowns without unnecessarily exposing himself to strikes. His hands were seemingly always high and active or underneath his opponent’s armpits as they attempted to shoot on him.

 

Hamill versus Thiago Silva: Kimbo versus Houston II?

This bout was by far the most disappointing bout of the night for many. Matt Hamill, coming back from retirement—and having been in sharp decline before thatprobably shouldn’t have been fighting. This had all the marks of a gimme match for Thiago Silva (no relation to Erick).

Thiago Silva, despite being a headache for UFC brass, still has the potential to be one of the more exciting fighters at 205 lbs. On paper this match almost guaranteed him a highlight-reel knockout in front of a Brazilian crowd.

In actuality we were treated to the best Matt Hamill in years for the first three minutes. Hamill surprised most of us by coming forward—exactly as Silva wants in all of his fights—and kickboxing Silva. What’s more, he did it pretty well.

Silva’s modus operandi on the feet has always been to stand directly in front of his opponent and hope that they oblige him. When they do, as Rafael Feijao and Keith Jardine did, Silva can look brilliant with his hard catch-and-pitch counters. When they don’t, he can work himself up and charge face first into a beatdown, as he did against Lyoto Machida and Alexander Gustafsson.

Hamill obliged Silva and hit him with hard low kicks, jabs and body shots. It didn’t last, however, and a mildly entertaining gave over to two rounds of both men gassing.

While Silva was expected to run out of breath, having come in significantly overweight and being fined 25 percent of his purse as a result, Hamill’s continuous work to the body and insistence that he was in good shape should have made this bout easier for Hamill as it progressed.

It is hard to take away good technical points from a bout where both fighters are so exhausted and fighting so sloppily, but there were a couple of important moments.

The first time Hamill was hurt was in answer to his low kicks. If one throws rear-leg low kicks without a proper setup, it is pretty much guaranteeing the opponent will eventually step in, jam the low kick and counterpunch.

Gokhan Saki uses right low kicks without a setup pretty routinely to draw his opponent into walking him down and thereby setting up his own counters, as I examined in my Glory 11 preview.

The second point to take away is the long cross counter that Silva hurt Hamill with late in the bout.

Both men were exhausted so it looked awful, but the long cross counter is slipping to the elbow side of a jab, lifting the opponent’s head with a counter left hand and attempting to catch him with a long right hand over the top while his head is up but before he can back away. This is a variant of the cross counter because it still effectively crosses over the opponent’s jabbing hand (if the jabber is pulling back into guard, though Hamill was too exhausted).

The final point to take away from this bout is that Thiago Silva seems to be one of the least coachable fighters in the sport. His attitude during fights and even in his corner, refusing to face his coach, is not indicative of a mature, adaptive fighter.

The fight concluded with Hamill barely able to keep himself from resting on his laurels, while Thiago Silva was going all out and couldn’t finish. Silva is a very talented and entertaining fighter, I truly hope he can work himself through whatever is causing this career meltdown and return to the form he carried through his first 13 bouts.

For Hamill’s part, it was brave to come back and his story has always been one which I admire, but you cannot age gracefully in the fight game. Past accomplishments and achievements do not stop a fighter from getting hit. If we see Hamill inside the Octagon again, it could end much worse than this bout did.

Pick up Jack’s eBooks Advanced Striking and Elementary Striking from his blog, Fights Gone By.

Jack can also be found on Facebook and Twitter. 

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC Fight Night 29 Results: 5 Fights for Thiago Silva to Take Next

Thiago Silva rightfully belongs in the top 10 of the UFC’s light heavyweight division. He’s belonged there for a long time—at least since he burst on the scene as a talented young Brazilian in 2007 and went on to knock out his first f…

Thiago Silva rightfully belongs in the top 10 of the UFC’s light heavyweight division. He’s belonged there for a long time—at least since he burst on the scene as a talented young Brazilian in 2007 and went on to knock out his first four UFC opponents.

Since then, the only men he’s ever lost to have been title contenders in the past two years.

Of course, the fact that he still sits so far outside a title shot can be attributed to his difficulty passing drug tests. He’s failed two, both in fights he could have won clean.

Now he’s managed to put together another two straight wins with the pummelling of Matt Hamill at UFC Fight Night 29 on Wednesday.

The only reason Hamill didn’t end up as just another Silva knockout statistic was his sheer resilience. But outside of that, the Brazilian was far too devastating in his striking, as he’s often been for his opponents.

Silva’s come a long way since his fist career loss to Lyoto Machida, both in his maturity and versatility as a fighter. For that, he should be rewarded with a top-10 opponent, or as close to top 10 as possible. Here’s five possible choices.

Begin Slideshow

UFC Fight Night 29: What We Learned from Matt Hamill vs. Thiago Silva

UFC Fight Night 29 continued its underrated parade of tilts with a light heavyweight bout between perennial contender Thiago Silva and veteran wrestler Matt Hamill. The bout wasn’t exactly a barnburner, but it showed that Hamill still has heart and Sil…

UFC Fight Night 29 continued its underrated parade of tilts with a light heavyweight bout between perennial contender Thiago Silva and veteran wrestler Matt Hamill. The bout wasn’t exactly a barnburner, but it showed that Hamill still has heart and Silva will still beat lesser guys even if he doesn’t come in motivated.

What We’ll Remember About This Fight

Realistically not that much. It was another fight on another card, something that you’ll see on Wikipedia in a year-and-a-half and say, “Oh yeah, I forgot they fought.”

You might remember the unusual sight of Thiago Silva wailing on a coma victim in the last minute, though.

What We Learned About Matt Hamill

Nothing we didn’t already know. At 37 years old, he’s not a contender, already retired once and simply doesn’t have the tools to be at the top of the division anymore. There are guys that he’ll beat, but the list is getting shorter every day he gets closer to 40.

He might be in love with his striking a little too much after changing camps, and perhaps he could have stolen one with a little more wrestling and a little more gas in the tank. He didn’t have a hard time taking Silva down, and had only a marginally harder time keeping him there when he did.

Something to consider if he decides to fight again.

What We Learned About Thiago Silva

Similarly, we more re-learned than learned about Silva this time out. He has a penchant for not taking lesser opponents seriously, and that may have been the case against Hamill.

He basically took the fight because no one in the top 10 was available, and given that he missed weight and sort of casually peppered his way to a win, it’s hard not to think this was a tougher fight to prepare for than if it had been against someone relevant.

Still, if he’s ever going to move up the ranks at the pace of his considerable skill, he needs to overcome such issues.

What’s Next for Hamill

Possibly retirement. Sure, he looked alright against Silva until he faded in the third round, but what’s he fighting for at this point? Was anyone clamoring for him to come back when he retired the first time? Hardly.

It’s time to go home.

What’s Next for Silva

A bout with a top-10 guy is a must, maybe after a meeting at the UFC office about professionalism. After being popped for steroids, popped for pot and missing weight this time out, the Brazilian is obviously his own worst enemy.

Depending on scheduling, a returning Gegard Mousasi or the winner of Evans-Sonnen at UFC 167 could make sense.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC Fight Night 29: Maia vs. Shields — Live Results and Commentary


(“Alright homey, let’s give these fans what they paid for — 25 minutes of evenly-matched grappling stalemates.” / Photo via Getty)

Let’s be honest, Demian Maia vs. Jake Shields may turn out to be the most piss-break worthy UFC main event since Mousasi vs. Latifi. Luckily, the supporting card for tonight’s UFC Fight Night 29 card is loaded with the kind of action-packed Brazil vs. The World matchups that the local fans go nuts for, including Thiago Silva’s absolute-must-win fight against Matt Hamill, and the freaky welterweight debut of Rousimar Palhares (who was not looking too good at the weigh-ins, by the way). Plus: Breast cancer awareness advocate Erick Silva faces off against Dong Hyun Kim, Fabio Maldonado slugs it out with Joey Beltran, and Brazilian Arianny enters our lives once again.

Handling the play-by-play for the FOX Sports 1 main card is Seth Falvo, who will be stacking live results and his own deep thoughts after the jump beginning at 7 p.m. ET. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and please toss your own thoughts into the comments section.


(“Alright homey, let’s give these fans what they paid for — 25 minutes of evenly-matched grappling stalemates.” / Photo via Getty)

Let’s be honest, Demian Maia vs. Jake Shields may turn out to be the most piss-break worthy UFC main event since Mousasi vs. Latifi. Luckily, the supporting card for tonight’s UFC Fight Night 29 card is loaded with the kind of action-packed Brazil vs. The World matchups that the local fans go nuts for, including Thiago Silva’s absolute-must-win fight against Matt Hamill, and the freaky welterweight debut of Rousimar Palhares (who was not looking too good at the weigh-ins, by the way). Plus: Breast cancer awareness advocate Erick Silva faces off against Dong Hyun Kim, Fabio Maldonado slugs it out with Joey Beltran, and Brazilian Arianny enters our lives once again.

Handling the play-by-play for the FOX Sports 1 main card is Seth Falvo, who will be stacking live results and his own deep thoughts after the jump beginning at 7 p.m. ET. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and please toss your own thoughts into the comments section.

Preliminary card results
Igor Araujo def. Ildemar Alcantara by unanimous decision
Yan Cabral def. David Mitchell by unanimous decision
Chris Cariaso def. Iliarde Santos by TKO, 4:31 Round Two
Alan Patrick def. Garett Whiteley by TKO, 3:45 Round One

Please stand by…

Good evening everyone – pleasure for me to be bringing you live results. I hope you didn’t buy into that “deep thoughts” nonsense that Ben tried to sell you on. Honestly, if I make it through this with only one semi-related GIF, only one obscure professional wrestling reference, and only five hundred typos, I’ll consider this liveblog a smashing success.

AND WE ARE LIVE!!!

I happen to be watching the fights this evening from the classiest place imaginable. Well, classiest place that will allow me to furiously tap at a keyboard and swear at a television, that is (I’m at a suburban Buffalo Wild Wings outside of New Orleans. Judge me, bro). KenFlo’s hair looks magnificent, there’s an Ultimate Fighter preview on tv, and all is right in the world. Alright, let’s do this:

Raphael Assuncao vs. T.J. Dillashaw

Round One: Nice leg kick from Raphael to start us of. Dillashaw is swinging for the fences early, but not really connecting. They’re feeling each other out, throwing leg kicks that occasionally land. Dillashaw with a nice takedown, but Assuncao is soon back to his feet. Head kick from Dillashaw gets caught by Assuncao, but Dillashaw escapes. There’s a scramble, and Dillashaw not has Assuncao’s back! He’s working for a standing rear-naked choke, and Assuncao is now on the mat. He’s got room to breathe though. Dillashaw gives up on the choke attempt, and Assuncao manages to escape. They’re back on their feet now. Dillashaw attempts a front kick as the round comes to an end.

Round Two: They touch gloves, and Assuncao immediately throws a leg kick. Another one lands for Assuncao. He now attempts a head kick, but it misses. Dillashaw now does the same thing. Dillashaw throws a body kick, and Assuncao catches it, landing a nice straight. Dillashaw lands another takedown, pinning Assuncao against the cage. They’re back to their feet, and Dillashaw throws another head kick. Assuncao trips, then attempts a takedown that is stuffed by Dillashaw. Once again, Dillashaw has Assuncao’s back, but Assuncao escapes and we’re back to the feet. Lots of blood now, but I can’t tell who is bleeding.

Um, is this a mid-round commercial break? Dafuq?

Round Three: We’re back, and both guys are feeling each other out with the occasional leg kick.  So far, I got Dillashaw winning both rounds…you know, in case you care to trust the guy who just got confused by a commercial break. Assuncao catches another kick, and works for another takedown that Dillashaw stuffs immediately. Dillashaw appears to be cut above his right eye. Two minutes left in this one. Assuncao is landing some nice counter strikes, but unless he gets the KO, I think it’ll be too little too late. One minute left now, and Assuncao misses with a kick. Assuncao now has Dillashaw clinched up against the cage, but Dillashaw escapes. This fight comes to an end, and I have Dillashaw taking it, 29-28. Let’s see if the refs agree…

Only one does. Raphael Assuncao def. T.J. Dillashaw by split decision.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Pierce

Round One:Pierce immediately rushes Palhares, and immediately regrets his decision by nearly getting caught in a heel hook. He escapes, and proceeds to get caught in a heel hook that actually ends the fight.

Official Result: Rousimar Palhares def. Mike Pierce via submission (heel hook), 0:31 of Round One. Bold prediction [/sarcasm]: This will be the submission of the night.

We’ve now got Chael Sonnen and Brian Stann doing their best to convince us that Thiago Silva vs. Matt Hamill will be worth watching. That’s neat, I guess…

That segment is wisely followed up by a UFC 166 preview.

Fabio Maldonado vs. Joey Beltran

Round One: They touch gloves, and Beltran is throwing combinations early and often. He now has Fabio clinched against the cage, and…ouch, that’s gotta hurt. Is it me, or is Maldonado like, reaaalllllyyyy prone to nut shots? Okay, we’re back. Beltran is throwing, but Maldonado is doing a good job avoiding his punches. They clinch against the cage again, and Beltran looks for a standing guillotine. Maldonado with a few nice body shots, and Beltran is now incorporating a wall-and-stall heavy offense, with a few knees and elbows sprinkled in . Beltran swings for the fences, but Maldonado avoids his haymakers. He can’t escape from the cage though. Beltran lands a nice straight right, and Fabio seems dazed. The round ends with Maldonado taunting Beltran, who I think was busy enough to take the round.

Round Two: Maldonado begins the round with a double thumbs-up. I approve. Beltran is throwing some heavy strikes, but Maldonado is doing a nice job avoiding and countering. Beltran rushes Maldonado against the cage, and both men are now letting their hands go. Beltran clinches Maldonado against the cage, and lands a really nice knee. Yamasaki separates them, as Maldonado appears to have dropped his mouth guard. Beltran attempts to get Fabio back against the cage, but Maldonado gets away. This fight now has both men clinching in the center of the cage, throwing body shots. They separate, with Beltran blitzing Maldonado in an attempt to get his back against the cage, as this round comes to an end. Good fight.

Round Three: We’ve got more combinations, more Beltran clinching against the cage, a foul (this time Beltran is on the business end), blood, more clinching, some nice knees from Beltran, and these two hug it out at the end of the fight. What can I say, I decided to be efficient this round.

Fabio Maldonado def. Joey Beltran via split decision.

Thiago Silva vs. Matt Hamill

I do not feel good about this…

Round One: Hamill has officially lasted longer than Mike Pierce did…so, you know, there’s that. Leg kick Hamill. And another, that Silva counters with a huge right hand. Leg kick Silva. Hamill with a nice body shot there. Two minutes left in the round, with Silva missing with a vicious haymaker. Hamill is doing a good job avoiding Silva’s heavier shopts, but Silva has had success with leg kicks throughout the round. Much closer first round than I was anticipating.

Round Two: Hamill catches Silva early, but Silva recovers. Hamill is keeping his hands dangerously low, as Silva is still catching Hamill with leg kicks. Some awkward, slow combinations from Hamill…that Silva barely misses. My this fight is sad. Silva now has Hamill’s back and is throwing punches, but Hamill escapes. The fight returns to a slow, sloppy kickboxing match, until Hamill takes Silva’s back against the cage. Hamill now has Silva on the ground, but can’t finish the fight before this round mercifully comes to an end.

Round Three: You know what? Screw liveblogging this fight. Play us off, wrestler GIF.

Thiago Silva def. Matt Hamill via unanimous decision.

Erick Silva vs. Dong-Hyun Kim

Whoa, technical difficulties here! Don’t get too excited though, because I’m back. Anyways, Kim’s grinding style works well in neutralizing Silva for most of the fight, and then Kim connects with a HUGE overhand right left, knocking Silva out cold. Awesome victory for Kim!

Dong-Hyun Kim def. Erick Silva via KO, 3:01 Round Two

Main event time!

Demian Maia vs. Jake Shields

Round One: No glove touch here, as Shields opens up with some leg kicks. Maia shoots for a takedown, and now has Shields against the cage looking for the takedown. He eventually gets it, and is in Shields’ guard. Maia looks to transition, but Shields’ butterfly guard is strong, and is controlling Maia’s hips well. Shields gets to his feet, and works for a takedown of his own now. Maia reverses, and lands another takedown. Shields gets up, but gives Maia his back in the process. Shields escapes, and gets Maia down. Maia has shields in his half guard, and gains full guard as Shields attempts to pass to side control. Shields attempts to pass guard, but Maia isn’t having it. Shields throws a few punches now, as Maia is now throwing punches from the bottom. The round ends with Shields in Maia’s guard.

Round Two: Shields opens the round with a few kicks, and then shoots for a takedown. Maia stuffs it, and looks for a takedown of his own now. Shields counters that takedown, and is in Maia’s half guard against the cage. Maia has full guard now. Shields is working for elbows, as Maia looks for a way back to his feet. Shields is back in Maia’s half guard, as Maia looks for a triangle. Shields avoids it, as Maia uses the butterfly guard to try to get a little space. Shields is content to control space – not exactly a bad strategy when you’re grappling against a guy like Maia. To Maia’s credit, he’s been looking for submissions and passes for the entire round, as this one comes to an end.

Round Three: Shields with another leg kick, and throws a head kick as well. Maia with a straight left, and misses with another one. Body shot Maia. Big left from Maia, as Shields decides he’s done pretending to be a kickboxer and shoots for a takedown. Maia reverses it, and now has Shields against the cage. Shields counters the takedown nicely, and now they’re back on the feet. Maia rocks Shields, and has Shields’ back. He gets the takedown, and has Shields’ back. AWESOME reversal from Shields, and he’s in Maia’s guard. Both guys are punching each other from Maia’s guard, as Shields now passes to Maia’s half-guiard. Maia throwing some ineffective punches from the bottom, as Shields begins to throw a few hammerfists. Shields throws a few elbows, as this round comes to an end.

Round Four: They feel each other out, and Shields rushes in for a double-leg takedown. Shields has Maia against the cage, but Maia reverses, and throws a knee against the cage. Shields reverses position now, and the ref has seen enough. He separates them, and Shields immediately shoots for a single leg. He’s unable to get it, and looks frustrated. He shoots for another, and Maia stuffs it. Maia is in Shields’ guard, with just under two minutes to go. Maia with some body shots, and we’ve got yet another stand-up. Eh, I’ve seen more than enough sloppy kickboxing from Silva/Hamill, but it’s not the worst stand-up I’ve seen. Maia gets the better of the exchanges as this round comes to an end. Both guys look exhausted.

Round Five: It’s been a close fight, as Shields is working his jab early and often to start things off. Maia is throwing some heavy shots, but he’s coming up short with most of them. Shields shoots for a takedown, but Maia stuffs it. Shields with a kick. Shields shoots for another takedown, but Maia stays on his feet. Maia now has Shields against the cage, but Shields escapes, and we’re treated to more grapplers impersonating kickboxers. Delightful. Maia lands a nice left hand, and Shields lands a kick. Shields shoots for another takedown, but Maia sprawls. Shields has Maia against the cage, but Maia works for a standing kimura. The ref separates them with less than thirty seconds to go. Maia is swinging for the fences, but Shields manages to survive until the end of the fight.

Tough call on who won this one…

The official decision is in: Jake Shields def. Demian Maia via split decision.

Eh, my parlay paid off, so I’m pretty excited. Interesting night of fights. We’ll have plenty to discuss tomorrow.

 


Thiago Silva Misses Weight, Practically Guaranteeing He’ll Be Fired With a Loss


An overweight Thiago Silva keeps his shirt on for the stare down. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Remember when we remarked that Thiago Silva was the most likely fighter to win up in Bellator after UFC Fight Night 29 and then pointed out how Thiago Silva constantly shoots himself in the foot?

We hate being right. Thiago Silva missed the 205 pound mark by three pounds. Nevertheless, the fight will occur at a catchweight. Silva has to forfeit 25% of his show money to his opponent, Matt Hamill.

This fight was already do-or-die for Silva, who’s been one of the sport’s unluckiest fighters/drug users. He pissed hot for non-human urine (and likely used a fake dick) at UFC 125. Subsequently, his win over Brandon Vera was changed to a no contest. Silva’s UFC on FUEL TV 6 win over Stanislav Nedkov was also changed into a no contest after the Brazilian tested positive for marijuana.

Missing weight is likely the last straw for a guy with this kind of history.

Fortunately, all of the other fighters made weight. Catch the full weigh-in results after the jump.


An overweight Thiago Silva keeps his shirt on for the stare down. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Remember when we remarked that Thiago Silva was the most likely fighter to wind up in Bellator after UFC Fight Night 29 and then pointed out how Thiago Silva constantly shoots himself in the foot?

We hate being right. Thiago Silva missed the 205 pound mark by three pounds. Nevertheless, the fight will occur at a catchweight. Silva has to forfeit 25% of his show money to his opponent, Matt Hamill.

This fight was already do-or-die for Silva, who’s been one of the sport’s unluckiest fighters/drug users. He pissed hot for non-human urine (and likely used a fake dick) at UFC 125. Subsequently, his win over Brandon Vera was changed to a no contest. Silva’s UFC on FUEL TV 6 win over Stanislav Nedkov was also changed into a no contest after the Brazilian tested positive for marijuana.

Missing weight is likely the last straw for a guy with this kind of history.

Fortunately, all of the other fighters made weight. If you don’t feel like watching the entire weigh-in video, here are the full weigh-in results:

Main Card
Demian Maia (171) vs. Jake Shields (171)
Dong Hyun Kim (171) vs. Erick Silva (170)
Matt Hamill (205) vs. Thiago Silva (208)*
Joey Beltran (205) vs. Fabio Maldonado (204)
Mike Pierce (171) vs. Rousimar Palhares (171)
T.J. Dillashaw (136) vs. Raphael Assuncao (135)

Preliminary Card
Ildemar Alcantara (171) vs. Igor Araujo (171)
Yan Cabral (170) vs. David Mitchell (171)
Chris Cariaso (125) vs. Iliarde Santos (126)
Allan Patrick (155) vs. Garett Whiteley (156)
Chris Cariaso (125) vs. Iliarde Santos (126)
Allan Patrick (155) vs. Garett Whiteley (156)

Ben vs. Seth: UFC Fight Night 29 Edition

You know how broken-down, piece-of-shit houses are often advertised as “handyman’s specials“? Well, tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night 29 event in Barueri is a “grappler’s wet dream,” headlined by two welterweights known for bringing it to the mat and keeping it there for AS LONG AS IT TAKES!!! (Just trying to stay positive here, guys.) Non-Baruerians can watch the action on FOX Sports 1, and we’ll be livebogging the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.

To keep you current on all the important themes surrounding “Maia vs. Shields,” it’s time for CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Seth Falvo to engage in some spirited debate. So how will the main event play out? What’s the best way to make money off the fights? Which fighter on the card is talented enough to be a future Bellator tournament semi-finalist? And which funny GIF will show up at the end of this post? Read on, and please toss your own opinions in the comments section.

Will Demian Maia‘s main event fight against Jake Shields go any differently than his last win against Jon Fitch? And are you already sold on Maia as a future welterweight title contender?

BG: Not all boring grapplers are the same. There can be subtle differences between boring grapplers. Jon Fitch is a guy whose single-minded focus is to take you down and lay on you until the fight ends. Jake Shields will take you down and try to submit you first, and if that’s not working out, then he’ll lay on you until the fight ends.

Here’s another difference — Fitch seems to lose a couple belt-ranks when his opponent manages to scramble onto his back. (Maia and BJ Penn were both able to hang out in back control for long stretches against Fitch, who defended himself well against rear-naked chokes, but was otherwise stuck in position.) Shields tends to be a little more active on the mat than Fitch both offensively and defensively, and unlike Fitch, Jake Shields has never been submitted in his entire career.

I see two possible outcomes here: 1) Maia and Shields recognize each other’s grappling abilities, and proceed to put on the sloppiest, stupidest kickboxing match in recent UFC history. 2) Shields tries to play jiu-jitsu with Maia, and it doesn’t work out too well for him. Either way, I’ve got the Brazilian by decision. Now would that firmly establish Maia as a title threat? Maybe not. Keep in mind that all of Maia’s opponents during his UFC welterweight run have been wrestlers. Give him the winner of UFC 167’s Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald bout after this one, and we’ll see how he handles himself in the deep end of the pool, against guys with the power to turn him upside-down.

SF: Glad to see I’m not the only person around here who has drank more than enough of the Demian Maia Kool-Aid; I’m already sold on him as a legitimate contender. But are we seriously writing off Jake Shields this easily?

I’m not about to write that Jake Shields has great striking or anything, but for a one-dimensional grappler, his Muay Thai is better than it has any business being. Yeah, I know — that’s like writing that The Wrestling Boot Band weren’t that terrible or that Pepsi Jazz was sort-of drinkable — but I’m not ready to say the same thing about Maia. Point being, if this fight stays on the feet, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Jake Shields walk away victorious. And, who knows, Jake may even violate a CagePotato Ban and win by bringing back the old Jake Shields tomorrow night. Anything can happen in a cage fight, bro.

Looking at the gambling odds for this event, what’s the single smartest wager you could make?

You know how broken-down, piece-of-shit houses are often advertised as “handyman’s specials“? Well, tomorrow’s UFC Fight Night 29 event in Barueri is a “grappler’s wet dream,” headlined by two welterweights known for bringing it to the mat and keeping it there for AS LONG AS IT TAKES!!! (Just trying to stay positive here, guys.) Non-Baruerians can watch the action on FOX Sports 1, and we’ll be livebogging the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.

To keep you current on all the important themes surrounding “Maia vs. Shields,” it’s time for CagePotato founding editor Ben Goldstein and staff writer Seth Falvo to engage in some spirited debate. So how will the main event play out? What’s the best way to make money off the fights? Which fighter on the card is talented enough to be a future Bellator tournament semi-finalist? And which funny GIF will show up at the end of this post? Read on, and please toss your own opinions in the comments section.

Will Demian Maia‘s main event fight against Jake Shields go any differently than his last win against Jon Fitch? And are you already sold on Maia as a future welterweight title contender?

BG: Not all boring grapplers are the same. There can be subtle differences between boring grapplers. Jon Fitch is a guy whose single-minded focus is to take you down and lay on you until the fight ends. Jake Shields will take you down and try to submit you first, and if that’s not working out, then he’ll lay on you until the fight ends.

Here’s another difference — Fitch seems to lose a couple belt-ranks when his opponent manages to scramble onto his back. (Maia and BJ Penn were both able to hang out in back control for long stretches against Fitch, who defended himself well against rear-naked chokes, but was otherwise stuck in position.) Shields tends to be a little more active on the mat than Fitch both offensively and defensively, and unlike Fitch, Jake Shields has never been submitted in his entire career.

I see two possible outcomes here: 1) Maia and Shields recognize each other’s grappling abilities, and proceed to put on the sloppiest, stupidest kickboxing match in recent UFC history. 2) Shields tries to play jiu-jitsu with Maia, and it doesn’t work out too well for him. Either way, I’ve got the Brazilian by decision. Now would that firmly establish Maia as a title threat? Maybe not. Keep in mind that all of Maia’s opponents during his UFC welterweight run have been wrestlers. Give him the winner of UFC 167’s Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald bout after this one, and we’ll see how he handles himself in the deep end of the pool, against guys with the power to turn him upside-down.

SF: Glad to see I’m not the only person around here who has drank more than enough of the Demian Maia Kool-Aid; I’m already sold on him as a legitimate contender. But are we seriously writing off Jake Shields this easily?

I’m not about to write that Jake Shields has great striking or anything, but for a one-dimensional grappler, his Muay Thai is better than it has any business being. Yeah, I know — that’s like writing that The Wrestling Boot Band weren’t that terrible or that Pepsi Jazz was sort-of drinkable — but I’m not ready to say the same thing about Maia. Point being, if this fight stays on the feet, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Jake Shields walk away victorious. And, who knows, Jake may even violate a CagePotato Ban and win by bringing back the old Jake Shields tomorrow night. Anything can happen in a cage fight, bro.

Looking at the gambling odds for this event, what’s the single smartest wager you could make?

BG: Smartest wager? Buddy, you’re talking to the wrong guy. I’m a sucker for ridiculous underdogs, and my lifetime success rate is currently hovering right above 0%. So before we get into “smart” bets, let me just point out that Dong Hyun Kim is a +220 underdog against Erick Silva, who is a strong favorite here because he’s handsome, I guess? Seriously, DHK wrestle-fuck all day.

Now, if you’re looking for a bet that’s fiscally sound but feels risky enough to give you that adrenaline rush of actual, degenerate gambling, I like to go with the old two-fight parlay: Pick two favorites who you feel comfortable with, and stack ‘em together. Give me TJ Dillashaw from the currently-unstoppable Team Alpha Male crew, who’s sitting at -225 against Raphael Assuncao, and the aforementioned Demian Maia, who’s listed around -270. A $10 parlay bet at BetUS returns $9.23 in profit if they both win — damn-near even money for a damn-near sure thing.

SF: What lovely, practical advice you’ve just given out, Ben. Now, if you’re done being intelligent and placing sensible bets, your majesty, I have a mortgage payment that I’d like to throw away on grown men punching each other.

Jake Shields is just underrated enough to be an attractive option at +210, so I’ll gladly be a total contrarian asshole and include him in my parlay, thank you very much. The other guy in my parlay? Allan freakin’ Patrick. I’ve never seen him fight before, but he’s undefeated, he’s Brazilian, and his opponent can best be described as “Some Guy, whatever, fuck you.” All of this makes him the perfect, yet incredibly rare combination of “totally safe bet” and “complete shot in the dark.” The $32.92 that my ten bucks would make off of this parlay certainly helps his case, too. Hell, something tells me that I’d have a crippling gambling addiction if I didn’t place my next few paychecks on this…

Which fighter is most likely to show up in Bellator after this event?

SF: My gut instinct is to take the easy route, pick Thiago Silva, and throw in a semi-related GIF at some point, as is tradition. I’m sure if I spent some time researching statistics or finding out if Facebook preliminaries are still a thing, I’d have a different opinion. But I didn’t earn the reputation of “talentless hack” by doing that stuff, and if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, so Thiago Silva it is

Silva is dangerously deep into Fitch/Okami territory. He’s talented enough to be a perennial “Top 10″ guy, but not enough to actually hold a belt — and he comes with a much heftier price tag than the other gatekeepers on the roster. Sure, his fan-friendly style would be an incentive to keep him around, if it weren’t for how disturbingly often the guy shoots himself in the foot (figuratively speaking [for now]). Another loss/failed drug test for Thiago Silva, and he may very well find himself under the bright lights of Viacom MMA.

BG: You’re assuming that Thiago Silva will lose to Matt Hamill, a guy with very little to offer in the year 2013, who unwisely came out of a very wise retirement and who hasn’t looked impressive since he KO’d Mark Munoz four and a half years ago. I say Silva wins that fight, so screw you.

Let’s be real: Fabio Maldonado vs. Joey Beltran will decide the unofficial winner of the Season Nine Bellator Light-Heavyweight Tournament. It’s perfect. They’re both sluggers with losing records in the UFC. You’ve heard of them, but you don’t particularly care about them. One of them is a disgraced steroid cheat. And Bellator’s light-heavyweight division is even shallower than the rest of their shallow divisions, so they could use the warm bodies.

Maldonado vs. Beltran is a classic matchup of a technical boxer vs. a let-me-bang-bro brawler, and I see “The Mexicutioner” losing a unanimous decision after being picked apart over three rounds. He will be fired by the UFC on Monday morning, and signed by Bellator on Wednesday. He will eventually be TKO’d by Attila Vegh, then test positive for steroids again and retire for three months before showing up in XARM. Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election, but it’s a close one. There’s a recount, and hostilities between the two major U.S. political parties grow even deeper and more overt. A civil war breaks out. The nuclear silos in Iowa self-destruct. Eventually, what’s left of the United States falls under the control of a shadowy dictator known only as “The Beekeeper.” Dana White dies peacefully in his sleep at the age of 112.

Thiago Silva vs. Matt Hamill…is this matchup depressing to anybody else, or is it just me?

SF: That GIF I owe you guys? Yeah, I figured I’d sit on it until I was asked a question that made me feel completely empty inside. So, you know…

BG: Basically, we’ve got a stoner and a deaf retiree trying to beat the shit out of each other in front of a bunch of unwashed foreigners. I know it sounds like the premise of a new Seth MacFarlane sitcom, but this is an actual UFC main card fight. Play us off, Morgan…