The time for talk is nearly over as the highly anticipated third installment in the rivalry between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos is set to go down this Saturday at UFC 166.
The heavy-handed Brazilian found victory via overhand right in their fi…
The time for talk is nearly over as the highly anticipated third installment in the rivalry between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos is set to go down this Saturday at UFC 166.
The heavy-handed Brazilian found victory via overhand right in their first meeting at UFC on Fox 1 in 2011, and the former Arizona State University wrestling standout returned the favor in prolonged and brutal fashion in their rematch at UFC 155 last December.
The manner in which Velasquez reclaimed the heavyweight strap cast a shadow of doubt as to whether or not dos Santos truly had the answer to the puzzle the 31-year-old presents inside the Octagon. And it was a similar feel when “Cigano” scored the knockout victory in their first meeting, as many of the same questions hovered around Velasquez’s ability to return to the prime form he competed at prior to a series of injuries.
When it was his time to step up and answer the challenge, Velasquez did so definitively. But now, with dos Santos the one facing the moment to answer, it will be on the former champion to show and prove. While the brick-handed slugger is hungry to reclaim the heavyweight title, it’s not a position the current champion is willing to give up.
The San Jose native is just as eager to prove the legitimacy of his title reign and that the flash knockout suffered at the hands of dos Santos in Los Angeles was a fluke.
To ensure he competes to the best of his abilities, Velasquez turned to his camp at the American Kickboxing Academy to get him ready to face dos Santos for the third time. Heading up the preparation was longtime coach and trainer Javier Mendez, and he believes his fighter is “beyond” ready to put a definitive stamp on the greatest trilogy in UFC history.
This weekend, the be all end all title fight between Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez is going down at UFC 166, so to ring in this special occasion, we’ve decided to switch things up for this edition of the Gambling Addiction Enabler. Not only will you be receiving the trusted, well-researched advice of Dan “Get Off Me” George, but additionally, CagePotato staff writer (and former GAE master-picker) Jared Jones will be jumping in to deliver the onslaught of gifs and contradictory advice that you all know and love.
Without further ado, let’s get to the fights in question…
DG: This fight should be at pick’em odds — proposing either fighter as a clear favorite is simply reckless and ignorant of the fact that both fighters have been prone to shockingly inconsistent performances as of late. On any given night, these guys can end a fight in spectacular fashion. Does Nate “The Great” show up and fight the Lombard we saw against Okami and Boetsch, or does he meet the man they call Shango and fight like he did against Saffiedine and Ellenberger? I’ll tentatively pick Marquardt here.
JJ: Well, if it’s “reckless and ignorant” that you want, you’ve come to the right source. (*sets fully-loaded revolver on table and spins it*)
I’m surprised you neglected to mention that Lombard will be fighting at welterweight for the first time in his UFC career, in what is one of the most transparent “Dropping a weight class to save your career” bouts in MMA History. Also, Lombard’s weight cut is going so poorly that he’s already talking about moving back up to middleweight. He’s assuming, of course, that the UFC won’t sever their ties with someone as overpaid as him following this weekend, which is wishful thinking in my opinion. Lombard is basically Rousimar Palhares + striking and since Marquardt already beat Palhares, MMAMath predicts a dominant victory for Marquardt 9.9 times out of 10. Reckless? Yes. Ignorant? Yes.
By Dan “Get Off Me” George and Jared Jones
This weekend, the be all end all title fight between Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez is going down at UFC 166, so to ring in this special occasion, we’ve decided to switch things up for this edition of the Gambling Addiction Enabler. Not only will you be receiving the trusted, well-researched advice of Dan “Get Off Me” George, but additionally, CagePotato staff writer (and former GAE master-picker) Jared Jones will be jumping in to deliver the onslaught of gifs and contradictory advice that you all know and love.
Without further ado, let’s get to the fights in question…
DG: This fight should be at pick’em odds — proposing either fighter as a clear favorite is simply reckless and ignorant of the fact that both fighters have been prone to shockingly inconsistent performances as of late. On any given night, these guys can end a fight in spectacular fashion. Does Nate “The Great” show up and fight the Lombard we saw against Okami and Boetsch, or does he meet the man they call Shango and fight like he did against Saffiedine and Ellenberger? I’ll tentatively pick Marquardt here.
JJ: Well, if it’s “reckless and ignorant” that you want, you’ve come to the right source. (*sets fully-loaded revolver on table and spins it*)
I’m surprised you neglected to mention that Lombard will be fighting at welterweight for the first time in his UFC career, in what is one of the most transparent “Dropping a weight class to save your career” bouts in MMA History. Also, Lombard’s weight cut is going so poorly that he’s already talking about moving back up to middleweight. He’s assuming, of course, that the UFC won’t sever their ties with someone as overpaid as him following this weekend, which is wishful thinking in my opinion. Lombard is basically Rousimar Palhares + striking and since Marquardt already beat Palhares, MMAMath predicts a dominant victory for Marquardt 9.9 times out of 10. Reckless? Yes. Ignorant? Yes.
JJ: Roy Nelson is coming off one of the worst beatdowns of his career and the self-admitted “crappiest camp of his career.” The latter statement might just be “Big Country’s” way of lamenting his recently instilled Whopper-free diet, but in any case, you’d have to be a fool to place an outright bet on either of these guys.
DG: -165 that this fight goes to decision is the only action this fight merits. Cormier should be able to keep Roy guessing, and when Roy’s guessing he’s losing fights. When Roy loses fights, he loses by decision, as weapons are still not allowed inside the cage. Cormier is the heavy favorite but Roy has only lost by decision in the UFC so far and should keep that stat alive this weekend.
DG: Amagov is coming off a successful UFC debut as the favorite here, but T.J. Waldburger is a live dog as many believe Adlan will look to take this fight to the ground. Waldburger has managed to receive a SOTN bonus in 2011 and 2012….2013 is almost over and T.J. may be able to keep his streak alive by finding a way to catch Amagov from his guard. Waldburger will not go away easily in his own backyard and if the fight goes to decision, those who took the plus money option may be pleasantly surprised.
JJ: Who in their right mind thinks Adlan Amagov is going to take this fight to the ground? Against a grappling wizard like Waldburger?! With two SOTN bonuses in his past four fights?!!
DG: Pop quiz time: Who is the only fighter (other than Vitor Belfort) to have all of their UFC wins come inside the distance? It’s none other than +300 to win inside the distance on Saturday night, Gabriel Gonzaga. The prospective profit almost doubles simply picking Gonzaga to win inside the distance vs. simply winning the fight, risk reward makes this a good dog pick by default.
JJ: Wait, so all of Gonzaga’s wins have come inside the distance, yet he’s facing 3-to-1 odds to beat Shawn Jordan inside the distance? Prop bets are for the weak: All my monies on Gonzaga by Grape Ape Rape inside the first. Joke, you are a bad.
JJ: Dan is going to suggest that you place your money on Sanchez or some weird-ass prop bet that most of our bookies don’t even offer. Just watch. My reaction to this advice is as follows:
DG: This bout is far more competitive than the line suggests (Ed note: TOLD YOU SO). That line is Jones vs. Sonnen territory and while Melendez is the right favorite, he pays next to nothing as an outright pick (even to win by decision at -175 is a worthwhile pick but still not a plus money option). So where can you find the opportunity to make over 4-to-1 on your investment in this fight without predicting a winner or loser? Melendez vs. Sanchez for FOTN. Looking at the fights on paper, this fight stands out above the rest and should be selected at the end of the night by Dana for the honors.
DG: Cain put on a clinic during his second bout with Dos Santos to take back the HW title, surprisingly out-striking the man who KO’d him only five months prior. The belief that the real Cain was not available for Zuffa’s FOX debut was supported with every jab and overhand right that the champ landed against JDS the second time around. Regardless of what the Brazilian will tell you, overtraining was most likely not the culprit for Dos Santos losing the rematch — it is far more likely that Velasquez is simply better in the long run. That said, JDS is a live dog because he is fighting an opponent he has beaten before and his price tag is paying out the highest return in his career. The prop that JDS wins via KO/TKO at +255 is the good dog pick, as it is rather clear Junior will not win any cardio races with Cain or steal any rounds along the way to a decision win. It’s all or nothing and it’s 2.5x your money if Cain gets caught again.
JJ: How quickly you forget UFC 90, Dan. Had any of us predicted that Dos Santos would treat Fabricio Werdum‘s face like a door on the TUF set at that event, we would have made 8 times our wager back. But you’re right about one thing, Dos Santos needs to catch Velasquez in the opening rounds if he hopes to hear a Brazilian mariachi version of “Gonna Fly Now” upon his return trip home. His takedown defense, however, is going to have to be impeccable for this to happen. I see this fight going down a lot like the second incarnation, with Velasquez wearing JDS down and potentially finishing him with GnP sometime in the championship rounds. But hey, there’s always the Klitschko’s, right Junior?
(Click the photo for a better look at the gash in question. / Props: MMAFighting)
UFC 166 heavyweight title challenger Junior Dos Santos showed up to open workouts in Houston yesterday with a noticeable scar on his forehead — the result of an accidental cut in his training camp about three weeks ago. The cut reportedly required three stitches, which have since been removed.
Though Dos Santos claimed he was “100% already,” it’s unquestionably a disadvantage in his rubber-match against Cain Velasquez this Saturday. It wouldn’t take much effort for Velasquez to re-open that cut with some well-placed punches, and due to the cut’s location, it’s possible that the blood-flow could affect Junior’s vision during the fight. (Not that Velasquez needs any head-starts to make that happen.)
Luckily, this happened far enough out from the event that the match itself wasn’t put in jeopardy (see: Gustafsson, Shamrock). But it’s just one more reason why Dos Santos needs to put Velasquez away early if he hopes to stand a chance.
(Click the photo for a better look at the gash in question. / Props: MMAFighting)
UFC 166 heavyweight title challenger Junior Dos Santos showed up to open workouts in Houston yesterday with a noticeable scar on his forehead — the result of an accidental cut in his training camp about three weeks ago. The cut reportedly required three stitches, which have since been removed.
Though Dos Santos claimed he was “100% already,” it’s unquestionably a disadvantage in his rubber-match against Cain Velasquez this Saturday. It wouldn’t take much effort for Velasquez to re-open that cut with some well-placed punches, and due to the cut’s location, it’s possible that the blood-flow could affect Junior’s vision during the fight. (Not that Velasquez needs any head-starts to make that happen.)
Luckily, this happened far enough out from the event that the match itself wasn’t put in jeopardy (see: Gustafsson, Shamrock). But it’s just one more reason why Dos Santos needs to put Velasquez away early if he hopes to stand a chance.
If you are looking for an amazing weekend of fights, UFC 166 promises to be one of the best cards of the year. Between a title fight and top talent, the card will be exciting and important to most of the weight classes in the UFC.
The card is headlined…
If you are looking for an amazing weekend of fights, UFC 166 promises to be one of the best cards of the year. Between a title fight and top talent, the card will be exciting and important to most of the weight classes in the UFC.
The card is headlined by a rubber match between UFC champion Cain Velasquez and former champ Junior dos Santos. It is a series that has seen both men take the title away from one another in devastating fashion (knockout by dos Santos, one-sided butt kicking by Velasquez).
Before we get to that, let’s take a look at the preliminary card and make some predictions.
They say everything is bigger in Texas. It seems the UFC has taken that literally.
If UFC pay-per-views were like WWE events, UFC 166 would be like WrestleMania or SummerSlam. The card scheduled for the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, is stacked with …
They say everything is bigger in Texas. It seems the UFC has taken that literally.
If UFC pay-per-views were like WWE events, UFC 166 would be like WrestleMania or SummerSlam. The card scheduled for the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, is stacked with intriguing bouts, and the headliners are the big boys—and not just in name.
Two colossal heavyweight clashes are the marquee bouts.
The UFC heavyweight title bout between champion Cain Velasquez (12-1) and former champ Junior “Cigano” dos Santos (16-2) is the main event. It is the tie-breaker meeting between the two men.
With dos Santos taking the title from Velasquez in their first meeting back in 2011 and Velasquez regaining it 2012, this third meeting should definitively decide who the better man is.
Just before they take the Octagon by storm, heavyweight contenders Daniel Cormier and “Big Country” Roy Nelson will do battle to determine who’s next in line for a shot at the crown. That bout is a co-main event, but it could headline a lesser card.
In addition to the heavyweight fights, there are at least six other well-known fighters scheduled for action.
Here’s how you can watch the event and predictions on each bout, followed by deeper analysis for the bouts projected to be top candidates for Fight Night bonuses and the main event.
Submission of the Night: TJ Waldburger over Adlan “Borz” Amagov
Waldburger’s UFC record is 4-2, but his losses have been respectable.
He was stopped by heavy-handed Johny Hendricks and lost an unanimous decision to Brian Ebersole in June 2012. His last fight was a technical submission win over Nick Catone in December. He returns after nearly a year away to take on relative UFC newcomer Amagov.
Borz won his UFC debut in April over Chris Spang by decision. He is a striker by nature, and though he has shown the ability to take opponents down, he’ll have no desire to allow the fight to go to the mat against Waldburger.
Up to now, Amagov hasn’t won a fight in his MMA career by submission.
He is a Strikeforce veteran who has been in with guys like Robbie Lawler and Keith Berry, but Waldburger is arguably the best submission fighter he will face.
Waldburger doesn’t possess much of a stand-up game; just one of his 16 wins have come by KO/TKO. He has however won 13 fights by submission.
This one will come down to the fighter who can dictate the tempo and identity of the fight. Expect Waldburger to get the fight he wants.
He shoots the legs with power and shows great takedown technique, and Amagov doesn’t possess the type of power that will serve as a big enough deterrent for Waldburger.
The latter will crowd his opponent and ultimately wear him down for a submission win.
KO of the Night: Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga over Shawn “The Savage” Jordan
Gonzaga has produced some of the most explosive KOs in heavyweight history.
His head kick of Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic has to rank in the top five, and his most recent destruction of Dave Herman was impressive.
The eight-year veteran of the UFC is looking to make another brutal statement on Saturday, and Jordan is the perfect mark for another Napao bomb.
The Savage loves to trade, but against Gonzaga, that isn’t the best game plan; however, it may be his only choice.
Jordan is the shorter man, and Gonzaga’s kicking game makes the length advantage even more noteworthy. Because Gonzaga is also the more accomplished grappler and submission artist with nine wins by tap out, Jordan’s options are limited.
The result of these unfortunate dynamics will be a memorable KO from Napao.
Nobody screams and looks like a stark-raving lunatic like Gonzaga after a KO win. Get ready to see the madman again on Saturday.
Fight of the Night: Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez vs. Diego “The Dream” Sanchez
The last time we saw Melendez in the Octagon, he was losing a close decision to then lightweight champion, Benson Henderson.
In his first fight since that bout in April, Melendez draws the tough veteran Sanchez. The latter knocked off Takanori Gomi by split decision in March, and he hopes to use this opportunity to vault himself into title contention.
Sanchez has great heart and a solid chin. Though Melendez is technically a better fighter, Sanchez’s grit and will should make this an entertaining scrap.
Melendez is a calculated, sharp fighter, but Sanchez’s pressure and attempts to take him down will force Melendez to work hard. Both men could have moments in this fight where they are visibly fazed by their opponent’s strikes.
In the end, Melendez’s defense is just too solid. In his bout with Henderson, he defended 72 percent of the takedowns attempted against him and avoided 65 percent of the strikes.
Dating back to his days in World Extreme Cagefighting and Strikeforce, El Nino has been hard to hit and takedown.
This skill, along with his accurate striking, will lead to a win. However, don’t be surprised to see both men bloodied in this bout.
The Main Event
In the first two meetings between dos Santos and Velasquez, the one thing I’ve come away most impressed with is Cigano’s beard. He took some mammoth shots from Velasquez early in their second fight, and he still survived.
In the first bout, dos Santos’ power overwhelmed Velasquez, and he didn’t even land flush. The punch that stopped Velasquez caught him high on the head, which can certainly disorient or disturb the equilibrium, but it isn’t on par with the shots dos Santos took from Velasquez.
The third and decisive meeting is probably going to come down to striking again.
Velasquez is believed to have the edge if the fight goes to the mat; however, dos Santos has been excellent with his takedown defense in the UFC. He’s stuffed 88 percent of the attempts to take him to the mat.
Cigano will be prepared for Velasquez’s power in the third bout, but the champion isn’t likely to withstand another flush strike from the challenger.
Look for the title to change hands yet again as dos Santos stops Velasquez via TKO.
The UFC’s end of year schedule for 2013 boasts some of the most stacked events in recent memory. This Saturday’s UFC 166 card, from the Toyota Center in Houston, is no exception.
Plenty of column inches have already been dedicated to breaki…
The UFC’s end of year schedule for 2013 boasts some of the most stacked events in recent memory. This Saturday’s UFC 166 card, from the Toyota Center in Houston, is no exception.
Plenty of column inches have already been dedicated to breaking down the main card fights, and obsessively examining the various pre-fight narratives.
If you thirst for more of the aforementioned pre-fight build, Bleacher Report’s MMA team has got you covered.
If you seek something more unorthodox, read on for my five bold predictions for UFC 166.
They say everything is bigger in Texas. It seems the UFC has taken that literally.