Tag: UFC betting

UFC Lightweight Title Fight:  Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar

Odds: (-210 Henderson /+170 Edgar )

Betting Pick:  Henderson

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In the main event of the evening, newly-crowned Lightweight champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson will try to defend his title for the first time against Frankie “The Answer” Edgar, the man he defeated to capture the belt. Their first fight was very exciting and competitive, but Henderson did enough to earn a relatively clear-cut decision. If Edgar wants to regain his title, he is going to need to find a way to deal with Henderson’s explosive style and size advantage. Edgar has proven time and time again that you would be foolish to count him out, but Henderson is going to be a tough nut to crack for the smaller Edgar.

Frankie “The Answer” Edgar, the last man to hold the UFC Lightweight title, is one of the most dangerous and effective fighters in the world at 155 pounds. Notoriously undersized for the division, Edgar compensates for his lack of size with spectacular technique both standing and on the ground. His boxing is crisp, technical, and quick and he has probably the best footwork in the division. To top it off, he has underrated jiu-jitsu and effective wrestling. He landed some nice punches against Henderson the first time and put Henderson in some bad positions, so clearly a winning strategy does exist for him. What really turned the tide of their last fight was the huge upkick Edgar took to the face, so this time he needs to be more cautious and measured in his approach and not give Henderson a chance to land something huge and fight-changing. If Edgar can make this a technical boxing match, frustrating Henderson when he tries to mix it up and consistently using his footwork to evade Henderson’s punches and beat him to the punch, he will be in prime position to reclaim his championship belt.

Benson “Smooth” Henderson was arguably the top Lightweight in the now-defunct WEC, and it did not take him long to cement himself atop the UFC’s Lightweight division, as well. Henderson is an extremely athletic and explosive young fighter with a variety of ways to win fights. Henderson’s striking is technical and effective, he is a very solid wrestler with a good clinch game, and he has very dangerous submissions, especially his guillotine choke. Henderson is one of the most dynamic fighters in the UFC at any weight, and one of the things that make him so dangerous is that he can explode and change a fight at any moment and from any position. In his last fight with Edgar, Henderson turned what looked like a bad position into a huge upkick that totally swung the momentum of the fight, and he is capable of latching that guillotine on from nearly any angle. One of Henderson’s biggest advantages in this fight is going to be his size and physical strength. He can’t keep up with Edgar’s footwork or quickness, but he is by far the bigger and stronger fighter, and if he can utilize his reach advantage and try to wear Edgar down by leaning on him and getting physical on the inside, he will be in a great position to defend his title successfully.

The first fight between these two guys was extremely competitive, and there is no reason to expect that this one will be any different. Henderson clearly did enough to win the first fight, but without that big upkick things might have played out very differently. Henderson can’t take anything for granted, but if he fights smart I think this is a very winnable fight for him. Henderson is one of the few Lightweights capable of keeping pace with Edgar in terms of speed, quickness, and cardio, but he is a bigger and stronger fighter and I think he has more ways to finish. In all likelihood, this one will go to the judges just like the last one, but I think Henderson should be able to control the action and get in more significant offense. Henderson retains his title by unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Ben “Smooth” Henderson by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Middleweight Bout:  Jake Shields vs. Ed Herman

Odds:  (-200 Shields / +160 Herman )

Betting Pick:  Shields

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In a featured Middleweight matchup, former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields returns to 185 pounds, where he will square off against tough wrestler Ed “Short Fuse” Herman. Shields came into the UFC with a lot of hype, but has looked very disappointing thus far. A win against Herman is a must here if he wants to remain relevant in future title discussions. Shields is a prolific submission fighter, but Herman has very underrated submissions of his own and very good wrestling, so he is capable of giving Shields a stern test.

Ed “Short Fuse” Herman made his way into the UFC as a cast member on The Ultimate Fighter, and has used his dominant wrestling and punishing top control to carve out a niche for himself. Herman’s standup has some power, but he isn’t the best technical boxer. There is no question that Herman’s best weapon is the takedown and his ability to dominate from top position while raining down blows. One aspect of Herman’s game that is often overlooked, though, is his submission prowess. Herman is a very prolific submission finisher from a variety of positions. One thing he has trouble with, though, is defending submissions, especially the triangle choke. If Herman wants to pull off the upset, here, he is going to have to be very careful, because Shields is probably better off his back than anyone Herman has ever faced.

Jake Shields is one of the premier submission grapplers in the UFC. A two-division star, Shields has big wins at both Middleweight and Welterweight. He came into the UFC heavily hyped following a dominant win over Dan Henderson, but his UFC career has been defined by uninspired performances. Shields is without a doubt one of the most dangerous submission grapplers in the UFC, but his lack of dominant takedowns, his rudimentary standup, and his sometimes passive style have all held him back from translating his Strikeforce success into the Octagon. In some ways Herman is a great matchup for him, because Herman will be willing to try and wrestle Shields and play into his strengths.

I think this is a very winnable fight for Jake Shields. Herman’s boxing isn’t much more dangerous than Shields’ is, and for Herman to win he is going to have to take Shields down and probably sit in his guard for three full rounds. Herman has notoriously porous submission defense, and I don’t like his chances of doing enough damage to Shields, who is slippery off his back, before he gets caught. Shields by submission.

Prediction:  Jake Shields by second round rear naked choke.

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UFC Lightweight Bout:  Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard

Odds: ( -315 Cerrone / +245 Guillard )

Betting Pick:  Cerrone

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In the semi-main event of the evening, two of the Lightweight division’s most dynamic and athletic competitors will meet as Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone squares off against “The Young Assassin” Melvin Guillard. These are two of the most entertaining and explosive athletes in the UFC, and the fact that they were training partners for years adds an added layer of drama to this fight. Greg Jackson helped to engineer Guillard’s career resurgence, now he has to help Donald Cerrone defeat him.

Melvin Guillard is one of the most athletic and explosive fighters in the Lightweight division. Every punch he throws has knockout potential and he has very hard to stop takedowns as well. He can hurt opponents standing or from top position, and has extremely good sweeps and escapes from bottom position. The biggest obstacle to Guillard becoming an elite Lightweight is, and has been, his utter lack of submission grappling. Guillard is very prone to getting submitted, and against Cerrone he just can’t afford to make any mistakes on the ground. If Guillard wants to win this fight, he is going to have to use his strength and athleticism to keep this fight standing, where he has a chance to knock out anyone who has to stand and trade with him. If he engages in an extended ground fight with Cerrone, I don’t see a way that he avoids getting submitted.

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone was a standout Lightweight in the WEC and has carried his success over into the Octagon. Cerrone is an extremely well-rounded fighter with very effective boxing and fight-ending submissions from a huge variety of positions. Cerrone is a threat to finish any fight anywhere it goes, but his best work definitely comes on the ground. If Cerrone has a flaw, it is that he is too willing to throw his game plan out the window in favor of wild brawling, a trap he fell into against Nate Diaz in a recent crushing loss. If Cerrone wants to beat Guillard, he is going to have to find a way to neutralize Guillard’s power punching and put himself in good positions on the ground, where he is more than equipped to take advantage of Guillard’s poor submission defense.

This has all the makings of a very competitive fight, considering how athletic and versatile both men are and the fact that they have trained and sparred against one another extensively. In the end, though, I think this one will come down to the fact that submission defense is Guillard’s Achilles heel and submissions are Cerrone’s bread and butter. I expect some exciting back and forth action, but eventually Guillard will make a mistake and Cerrone will be able to capitalize. Cerrone by submission.

Prediction:  Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone by third round guillotine choke.

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UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Mauricio Rua vs. Brandon Vera

Odds:  (-400 Rua / +300 Vera )

Betting Pick:  Rua

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In the main event of the evening, former Light Heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will square off against well-rounded veteran Brandon “The Truth” Vera. Both of these guys have some huge wins under their belts, but neither has been overly impressive in recent outings, with Shogun dropping three of his last five fights and Vera losing two of his last three. Still, these are two guys with dangerous striking and versatile offensive skill sets who have proven that they can compete with the best in the world at Light Heavyweight and who have complementary styles that should make this a very competitive and entertaining main event.

Brandon “The Truth” Vera looked, for a while, like he might just be the future of the UFC. In his first four fights in the Octagon, all at Heavyweight, he went undefeated and capped the run with a brutal TKO over former Heavyweight champion Frank Mir. Two straight losses at Heavyweight,though, sent him down to 205, and unfortunately he has been unable to recapture the magic of that first run. Vera has very good Muay Thai and an underrated ground game, but his career has been marred by inconsistent and uninspired performances. Against Shogun he is almost certainly going to be at a disadvantage in terms of punching power and probably striking technique as well, but Shogun has shown that he can be taken down and controlled. If Vera wants to avoid another costly loss, he might want to look to use his long reach to keep Shogun at bay and try to set up some takedowns to score points and neutralize Rua’s offense a bit.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, the former Light Heavyweight champion, is without a doubt one of the most effective strikers in the 205 pound division. A Muay Thai expert with great punches and kicks to go along with a dominant clinch game, Shogun is capable of putting a hurt on anyone willing to stand and let him work his game plan. He actually has very underrated jiu jitsu as well, but against a grappler like Vera I don’t see him being able to work effectively off his back. Shogun’s strategy should be what it always is: keep the fight standing and out strike his opponent. I don’t see any area of a kickboxing fight where Vera really has an edge over Shogun outside of reach. Shogun is the crisper, more accurate, and more powerful striker of the two, and should have more than enough tools in his belt to win this fight on his feet.

Truth be told, this seems like a bit of a mismatch. This fight is only happening because Shogun turned down a fight with Glover Teixeira, whose combination of relatively small name recognition and relatively huge punching ability made him an unattractive prospect. Vera has name recognition because of his big wins over the likes of Frank Mir, but he is not the same fighter who looked like such a phenom early in his career. Vera will try to strike with Shogun, and he will get out struck badly. I don’t like his chances of lasting a full three rounds against the kind of power Shogun brings to the table. Shogun by T/KO.

Prediction:  Mauricio “Shogun” Rua by third round T/KO.

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