Tag: UFC betting

Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix bout:  Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers

Odds:  ( -500 Barnett / +300 Rogers )

Betting Pick:  Barnett

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In the first of two featured Heavyweight Grand Prix bouts, former UFC Heavyweight champion Josh Barnett will square off against heavy-handed slugger Brett “The Grim” Rogers. Barnett seems to be constantly surrounded by controversy due to his numerous positive steroid tests, but is one of the most complete and dangerous Heavyweights in the world with top-notch striking, good wrestling, and extremely dangerous submissions from top position. Rogers is a much more one-dimensional fighter, but his mix of size, brute strength, and insane knockout power make him a scary matchup for anyone, so this should be a great fight.

Brett “The Grim” Rogers is one of the scariest strikers in the Heavyweight division. A huge guy with a ton of punching power, Rogers is willing to stand in the center of the ring and trade shots with anyone in the world until one of them goes down. He uses his size and strength to his advantage very well, and actually showed hints of a decent ground game against Fedor. Still, his strategy will always be to take the center of the ring and let his hands go until he connects with a knockout punch. He lacks Barnett’s technique both standing and on the ground, but if he lands a flush power punch, very few men are going to remain standing for long.

Josh Barnett has long been one of the most skilled and versatile Heavyweights in the world, but his career has been hampered by injuries and constant steroid-related suspensions. All the controversy aside, though, Barnett is an extremely formidable striker with good wrestling and excellent submissions, which makes him one of the toughest matchups in the world for anyone. There is no area of fighting where Barnett is going to get overwhelmed by anyone, and he is a constant threat to finish fights wherever they play out.

This is going to be a tough matchup for Rogers to win. On the feet he is a monster, but Barnett is more experienced, quicker, and has better technique. Most importantly, Barnett has the ability to force a ground fight and the submission prowess to end the fight once it gets there. It’s entirely possible Barnett could win this fight on the feet since Rogers’ chin has been exploited before, but I think it is much more likely he will play it safe, trip Rogers to the ground and choke him out. Barnett by submission.

Prediction:  Josh Barnett via second round rear naked choke.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

Strikeforce Lightweight bout:  KJ Noons vs. Jorge Masvidal

Odds:  ( -165 Noons /+135 Masvidal )

Betting Pick:  Noons

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In a featured Lightweight bout, skilled boxer K.J. Noons takes on long-time veteran Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal. Masvidal has a ton of experience and a well-rounded game, but Noons has some of the most technical and effective boxing at 155 pounds and very good defensive wrestling, so this should be a very competitive fight.

Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal is a very tough veteran with a well-rounded offensive skill set. His striking is technically sound and he has some knockout power to go along with effective wrestling and very good defense. He is notoriously difficult to finish and while he isn’t dominant at any one thing, he is versatile and puts his skills together very well. Against Noons he is going to need to try and work his ground game more than usual, because Noons has the kind of striking that it would be unwise for him to stand in front of.

K.J. Noons is an extremely slick and effective striker who has some professional boxing experience under his belt. On the feet he is fast and accurate, has a surplus of punching power, and can hurt guys with punches, kicks, and knees. Noons is one of the few fighters with a win over Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz under his belt, and he did it giving up a substantial size and weight advantage. He will enjoy a clear edge in the striking against Masvidal, so as long as he focuses on keeping this fight upright he will be in a good position to get a win.

I think Masvidal is in for a rough night. Noons is clearly the more proficient striker, both technically and in terms of punching power, and Masvidal lacks the dominant takedowns he would need to keep Noons from lambasting him on the feet. I think Noons will pick Masvidal apart with his faster, more accurate striking and eventually score the T/KO win.

Prediction:  KJ Noons via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

 

Strikeforce Heavyweight bout:  Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson

Odds:  (-500 Cormier /+300 Monson )

Betting Pick:  Cormier

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In the opening bout of the evening, undefeated Heavyweight prospect Daniel Cormier faces his toughest challenge to date in the form of skilled veteran Jeff “The Snowman” Monson. Cormier is an extremely dominant wrestler with heavy hands, but Monson has a huge experience advantage and very effective submissions, so he is going to test Cormier in a way he has never been tested. Cormier depends a lot on his wrestling and his takedowns, but Monson has the ability to make him pay off his back or to take him off his game by testing his takedown defense, so this is a very interesting fight that should go a long way toward determining just how ready Cormier is for top-level competition.

Jeff “The Snowman” Monson, a long-time veteran who has fought in Japan, the UFC, and a host of other shows, has an extremely slick and effective ground game. Unlike most heavyweights, he has submissions from every position and unlike a lot of jiu-jitsu guys he has very effective wrestling to set up his ground game. His standup is rudimentary and not very powerful, but his defense is good and he has a great chin. He mainly uses his striking to try and set up takedowns, but he has enough technique to not get manhandled on the feet.

Daniel Cormier is one of the Heavyweight division’s most exciting up and coming prospects. He has solid boxing with very heavy hands and a world-class amateur wrestling background. He has knockout power both standing and from top position on the ground, and he mixes it up well and fights with an aggressive style. Cormier’s problem is that he has been brought along slowly and has yet to face a real top-level opponent, which means that Monson is a huge step up in competition for him.

This is a tough fight to call. Cormier has heavy hands and better wrestling, but taking Monson down is not going to be as easy as it sounds and even if he can get this fight to the ground he is just playing into Monson’s game. Cormier does have more dangerous striking, but if he gets too intent on letting his hands go Monson might surprise him with some takedowns of his own. Cormier has the tools to win this fight, but he is going to need a very complete performance and to put everything together more than he ever has in his career. I think Cormier should be able to do enough to earn the decision, but Monson is not going to make it easy on him. Cormier by decision.

Prediction:  Daniel Cormier via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC bout Lightweight:  Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha

Odds:  (-525 Cerrone / +325 Rocha )

Betting Pick:  Cerrone

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In a featured Lightweight bout, WEC veteran Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone squares off against jiu-jitsu ace Vagner Rocha in a bout between two guys with world-class submissions. Rocha has a sterling competitive jiu-jitsu record, but Cerrone has a long track record of submitting guys in MMA bouts and has a much more complete offensive arsenal, so this is going to be a very stiff challenge for Rocha.

Vagner Rocha, an extremely prolific grappler, is making his UFC debut and jumping right into the mix at 155 pounds. Rocha has a very serious competitive jiu-jitsu background, but his experience in Mixed Martial Arts is limited, his offense is pretty one-dimensional, and Cerrone is not only a huge step up in competition, he is a spectacular grappler himself. Rocha does have some standup, but he is going to be outgunned on the feet, and he lacks dominant wrestling to force Cerrone to fight on the ground. Even if he can force the fight to the ground, it is far from a foregone conclusion that he will get the best of Cerrone.

Donald Cerrone is an extremely effective submission specialist, but he also has a well-rounded game. He has never finished a fight by any means other than submission, but he is a skilled striker on top of having world-class submissions from every position. His jiu-jitsu is going to be huge in this fight, because he can use it defensively to neutralize Rocha’s best attribute and allow him to exploit his massive striking advantage.

I don’t think Rocha has an answer for Cerrone here. Cerrone has more experience against better opponents, a much more versatile skill set, and is well-equipped to cancel out Rocha’s one really great attribute, his submission game. Cerrone’s only weakness is his wrestling, but Rocha isn’t a good enough wrestler to exploit that. Rocha isn’t going to be able to get Cerrone down and he isn’t going to be able to submit him, and Cerrone is going to make him pay on the feet. Cerrone by T/KO.

Prediction:  Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…