UFC Fight Night 29: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions

The UFC will return to action Wednesday, when Demian Maia will welcome Jake Shields to Brazil in the UFC Fight Night 29 main event.
Maia has been on a roll since moving to the welterweight division. The former 185-pounder has used a new-found size adva…

The UFC will return to action Wednesday, when Demian Maia will welcome Jake Shields to Brazil in the UFC Fight Night 29 main event.

Maia has been on a roll since moving to the welterweight division. The former 185-pounder has used a new-found size advantage to make the most of his grappling in three straight victories. That run has quickly pushed him into the Top 5 of the official UFC welterweight rankings.

A former 170-pound title challenger, Shields is now on the outside of the Top 10 and looking in. An upset victory over Maia on Wednesday could return Shields to championship contention, though.

With another UFC event approaching, it’s time to get the band back together again. Here are main card predictions from B/R MMA‘s own Riley Kontek, Scott Harris, James MacDonald, Craig Amos and Sean Smith.

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UFC Fight Night 29: Maia vs. Shields Fight Card, TV Info, Predictions and More

Appropriately, grappling will take center stage in the main event of UFC Fight Night 29 in Barueri, Brazil on Wednesday. The country’s grappling techniques and prowess have shaped the sport of MMA as much as any other trait or discipline.
One of …

Appropriately, grappling will take center stage in the main event of UFC Fight Night 29 in Barueri, Brazil on Wednesday. The country’s grappling techniques and prowess have shaped the sport of MMA as much as any other trait or discipline.

One of Brazil’s finest grapplers, Demian Maia (18-4) will put his skills on display against another elite mat warrior in Jake Shields (28-6-1). Between them, Maia and Shields have a combined 19 wins by submission in their careers.

Does that mean we’re destined to see someone tap out?  Will we see two experts in submissions elect to settle things with their fists, or will they battle for positioning for five rounds while the fight is decided on the scorecards. 

I have my theories, but here’s how you can watch the main event and entire card for yourself.

 

Prepare to Fall Asleep

I respect Maia and Shields as good fighters and excellent submissions artists, but sometimes two good fighters don’t produce an exciting fight. This is probably going to be one of those bouts. Both men are very calculated and excellent in executing their game plans.

The problem is, both generally have the same approach. The vast majority of the wins they have captured in their careers have come by submission, and neither man has ever been submitted in their MMA careers.

This is going to be a chess match where neither man blinks enough to give his opponent an edge. For a grappling connoisseur, this will be heavenly. However, for fans that long to see a mix of striking and grappling, you’re likely to feel a little sleepy by the beginning of the third round. 

I’ll take Shields as the winner because he’s a little stronger physically, and when he’s not actively pursuing the submission, he’s usually better at maintaining top position. Posture will go a long way in this fight as neither man is likely to take a ton of punishment from strikes.

The winner is likely to put himself in good position to challenge for the welterweight title in the future. That fight should be more entertaining than this one will be. Check out this simulation of the fight from the video game UFC Undisputed 3. 

 

Prepare to Wake Up

It is too bad the Maia-Shields fight couldn’t come after the Erick Silva-Dong Hyun Kim bout. The latter should feature better action. Silva is definitely a solid submission artist having finished 60 percent of his opponents that way, but his opponent has good ground defense and likes to thump. Per UFC.com, he has defended 80.65 percent of the takedowns attempted against him.

The man they call the “Stun Gun” will at least make sure this fight is entertaining. Silva is my pick to win by submission, but he’ll have to avoid the South Korean’s long reach to get inside.

Ultimately, his explosion into his takedown attempts will wear Kim down and lead to victory.

 

Prepare to See Punches in Bunches

Neither Thiago Silva nor Matt Hamill would have a prayer in the Octagon against Jon “Bones” Jones, but their matchup has explosive possibilities. Hamill actually owns the only win over Jones, but it came when Bones was disqualified for pummeling him with a downward elbow.

Aside from that “win,” Hamill stopped Mark Munoz with a vicious head kick in 2009 and has won decisions over Keith Jardine, Tito Ortiz and Roger Hollett.

He’s a tough, strong veteran who has been around the sport since 2005. He’s far from a pushover.

Silva has knocked out 87 percent of the fighters he’s faced, including a first-round stoppage of Rafael Cavalcante on UFC on Fuel TV 10 in June. He’s faced some of the best fighters in the world in his weight class and owns a TKO win over Jardine from 2009.

The man can flat-out punch, and he’ll be hyped to perform well in front of his home country. This could be a case of the first man to land a flush strike wins. Silva has slightly longer arms, and he’s a little smoother than Hamill.

This gives him the edge in what could be the Fight of the Night and/or KO of the Night.

 

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UFC Fight Night 29 Weigh-in Live Blog for Maia vs. Shields Card

UFC Fight Night 29 hails from Brazil, and a significant welterweight scrap will serve as the event’s main event.
No. 4-ranked Demian Maia will take on Jake Shields. The fight between the two grappling specialists offers one of the most intriguing battl…

UFC Fight Night 29 hails from Brazil, and a significant welterweight scrap will serve as the event’s main event.

No. 4-ranked Demian Maia will take on Jake Shields. The fight between the two grappling specialists offers one of the most intriguing battles in the division. Erick Silva and Dong Hyun Kim will be in the co-main event as each welterweight tries to lay claim to a top-10 spot.

Weigh-In Results:

Jake Shields (171) vs. Demian Maia (171)
Dong Hyun Kim (171) vs. Erick Silva (170)
Matt Hamill (205) vs. Thiago Silva (208)*
Joey Beltran (205) vs. Fabio Maldonado (204)
Mike Pierce (171) vs. Rousimar Palhares (171)
T.J. Dillashaw (136) vs. Raphael Assuncao (135)
Ildemar Alcantara (171) vs. Igor Araujo (171)
Yan Cabral (170) vs. David Mitchell (171)
Chris Cariaso (125) vs. Iliarde Santos (126)
Allan Patrick (155) vs. Garett Whiteley (156)

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UFC Fight Night 29: With a Win, Demian Maia Should Receive Shot at GSP

I vividly remember Demian Maia’s UFC debut back in October 2007. 
It was UFC 77, and the one enduring memory I’ll carry from that night—aside from Anderson Silva face-blasting Rich Franklin into oblivion for a second and final time—was…

I vividly remember Demian Maia‘s UFC debut back in October 2007. 

It was UFC 77, and the one enduring memory I’ll carry from that night—aside from Anderson Silva face-blasting Rich Franklin into oblivion for a second and final time—was Joe Rogan‘s reaction to Maia’s debut.

Rogan, already a great jiu-jitsu practitioner himself and an aficionado of all things grappling, treated Maia as the second coming of the most dangerous fighter in the world, even though Maia was debuting on the preliminary. No casual UFC fan had ever heard of the Brazilian, but with the way Rogan talked him up, you couldn’t help but believe Maia would walk into the Octagon and submit every opponent on his way to a fight with Silva.

The interesting thing is that it kinda, sorta happened just like that.

Maia submitted Ryan Jensen that night in the first round with a rear-naked choke. After that, he’d go on to submit four more middleweights, with only Jason MacDonald making it to the third frame. Maia was a throwback to the old UFC, when fighters mostly entered the Octagon with one skill. And like UFC pioneer Royce Gracie, Maia was really, really good at jiu-jitsu.

And then UFC 102 rolled around.

Maia, with five consecutive submissions to his name, stepped in the cage with Nate Marquardt, a former title contender. Twenty seconds or so after the fight began, Maia lunged into what appeared to be a head kick. It was an ill-fated attempt to test his nonexistent striking skills against a bruiser, and it did not work out so well for Maia.

For the first time in his career, Maia suffered a loss, and he was barely conscious when the results were announced by Bruce Buffer.

The loss to Marquardt was a little over four years ago. Over the course of his next seven fights, Maia fancied himself a striker, rarely even attempting to use the jiu-jitsu that made Joe Rogan‘s head explode on a regular basis. Maia chalked up a 4-3 record and decided to make the drop to welterweight after a loss to current middleweight champion Chris Weidman.

Maia debuted at welterweight at UFC 148, and it was like stepping in a time machine. Gone was the middling striker version of Maia; in his place was the submission artist who relentlessly went for takedowns, then continually tried to break your will before submitting you.

He defeated Dong Hyun Kim by injury, then neck-cranked Rick Story so hard that blood squirted from his mouth and nose, and then ultimately sent Jon Fitch packing from the UFC by dominating Fitch worse than anyone else had through his UFC tenure. 

And now, two days from now, Maia steps in the cage with American jiu-jitsu expert Jake Shields.

It’s a fantastic stylistic matchup, if only we see some grappling and not a kickboxing fight between two fighters who are much better grapplers than they are strikers.

That’s a very real possibility, of course; Shields may have the talent to negate Maia’s takedown and smothering control game. Shields, whom training partners have described to me as feeling like “a very heavy sandbag” when he’s on top of you, may not be able to force his will on Maia. 

But I’m hoping for the best. We’re all hoping for the best. We aren’t tuning in to see Maia and Shields punch or kick each other; we’re watching because we want to see a nasty grappling battle between two of the very best to ever grapple in mixed martial arts.

And what of the potential results?

Shields is 2-2 in his last four welterweight bouts. I doubt anyone is ready to see him return to the cage with Georges St-Pierre just yet, even if a win over Maia means something. What it ultimately means for Shields, I don’t know. But it means something.

But for Maia, a win means everything, because a win means a title shot. Or, at least it should.

This is not a perfect world and the UFC is not a perfect company. But if Maia can beat Shields—especially if he does so in impressive fashion—he is deserving of a crack at St-Pierre, if not because of his (prospective) four consecutive wins over top contenders, then certainly because Maia as a challenger makes the most sense out of anyone in the UFC’s welterweight top-five rankings.

Now, the UFC’s rankings are ultimately silly, because Dana White sanctioned them and then almost immediately turned on them once the voting media didn’t agree with the storylines he wanted to promote. But we’ll use them as a guide, because that’s what they’re intended to be. 

Maia is currently ranked fourth in the division. The top-ranked challenger, Johny Hendricks, gets his shot next month at UFC 167. Carlos Condit is No. 2, and he’s already faced St-Pierre and lost. Condit could earn a rematch in the next 12 months, but he’s already booked to face Matt Brown in December, so he’s out the window for now. And No. 3 is Rory MacDonald, who is training partners and friends with St-Pierre and has repeatedly stated that he won’t fight St-Pierre, not even for the championship.

You can see how crystal clear the whole thing is. Maia is in perfect position, from a winning perspective, to jump into a title shot and help erase the memories from that awful night in Abu Dhabi when he challenged Silva for the middleweight title in one of the worst title fights in the history of the sport. He’s also perfectly ranked, at least according to the UFC’s silly official system. 

The UFC’s trips into Brazil often produce cards that seem meaningless to fans back in the United States. They’re filled with talent you’ve never heard of, and there doesn’t seem to be any weight to the broadcast. There’s no cause and effect. Here are a bunch of guys, and they are fighting each other, and you can watch them fight each other or not. They don’t feel important, even though they’re very important for the UFC’s long-term interests in Brazil.

But you don’t care about the UFC’s interests in Brazil. You want to see fights that have meaning, that have weight, and you’re in luck this week. Maia vs. Shields is an important fight, at least for one of the fighters. And it could produce a challenger to Georges St-Pierre who is far more interesting than anyone else in the division right now.

That’s a big deal, and I’ll be watching. 

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Dropping Knowledge: Chael Sonnen Breaks Down Fight Night 29

The team of analysts for the UFC on Fox Sports 1 and Fox broadcasts have been providing the most in-depth coverage mixed martial arts has seen in its 20 years of existence.
With a collection of seasoned fight veterans and a handful of well-versed hosts…

The team of analysts for the UFC on Fox Sports 1 and Fox broadcasts have been providing the most in-depth coverage mixed martial arts has seen in its 20 years of existence.

With a collection of seasoned fight veterans and a handful of well-versed hosts at the helm, the people working the pre– and post-fight shows for the UFC have consistently raised the bar.

For the next installment of “Dropping Knowledge,” former multi-divisional title challenger Chael Sonnen sits in to give his thoughts on the upcoming card for Fight Night 29.

At the current time in mixed martial arts, there is perhaps no fighter more polarizing than “The Gangster from West Linn.” The former middleweight and light heavyweight contender has risen to become one of the most visible and outspoken figures in the sport and accomplished these feats with his blue-collar efforts inside the cage and his sharp tongue behind the microphone.

The Oregon native balances his MMA career, where he has remained a perennial contender in multiple divisions, with knocking out his analyst duties for UFC on Fox broadcasts and as a co-host for UFC Tonight on Fox Sports 1.

He is currently preparing for a showdown with former light heavyweight champion and fellow analyst Rashad Evans at UFC 167 on Nov. 6 in Las Vegas. Despite a hectic schedule, Sonnen made time to break down and chop up the action that will take place at Fight Night 29.

 

The main event between Demian Maia and Jake Shields is interesting on several levels. On the one hand, they are two of the premier grapplers in MMA, and on the other, there is possible title contention on the line. What is your take on how the fight could go down, and what do you believe is at stake?

There are two things here. First off, if you had a son and your son wants to be a fighter, and you had a genie in a bottle that would give you the skills of either one of these guys, tell me which guy’s skills you would choose. It would take you a day or so to respond. These guys are so close in every area. All the way down the line they are close. This is just such a close match. 

Almost every fight is put on for the fans and that is the whole point. Every now and then, a fight is put on for the industry. A fight is put on for the guys in the locker room and the people that work in the business, and we want to see a certain fight really bad. That’s what this is. This is a fight that has the locker room and the roster so excited. We are all trying to figure out who is going to win. I was just in the gym today and we were sitting around stretching and warming up. The coach asked who was going to win this fight and we all had different opinions.

The other thing that is going on here; Demian Maia is so clearly approaching a title shot with St-Pierre and nobody seems to be talking about it. I suspect that will change and Dana is going to get asked those questions as the press picks up for this fight. Demian Maia ran through Rick Story and Story is the only guy to beat Johny Hendricks. He ran through Jon Fitch. Jon Fitch is the only guy to win a round against GSP for a meaningful amount of time. It’s a big deal for Maia to win because I do believe he will become the No. 1 contender if that happens. 

 

Let me ask you about Maia. Fighters changing weight classes when they hit a wall like he did is common in MMA. That being said, what seems so unique is that he put the idea he had to become a great striker behind him and got back to what he does best. What are your thoughts on his resurgence?

There is a tremendous misconception in this sport that you need to be well-rounded. Mixed martial arts means you can be and you can do a number of things. However, being well-rounded is a very fancy way of saying you suck at a whole bunch of different things instead of just sucking at a couple. It’s always better to specialize. Orville Redenbacher said it best, “Do one thing and do it better than everybody.” That is what Maia needed to do.

Again, I was in practice today and was talking to my coach. He used to train with Demian Maia and said his Jiu-Jitsu went down tremendously because he just began focusing on his boxing and kicking skills. When he moved down to 170 pounds, he went back to what got him there, which are the submission skills and the Jiu-Jitsu attacks. The proof is always in the pudding and, in the end, we’ll see how that works out for him. I personally like it. As a coach, I personally like to focus on strengths as opposed to trying to strengthen your weaknesses. But that’s a calculated move. You have to make that choice and it depends on the athlete. For him, it’s been working out.

 

As one of the best wrestlers in MMA I have to ask you this question. Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ruled the sport back in the early goings until wrestlers like Mark Coleman and Randy Couture came along. Maia brought BJJ back in a strong way. What do you think makes him so successful against wrestlers?

I spent a lot of time thinking about that, especially after I got in there and felt Maia, but even more so as I stand back and watch him. His matches with Story and Fitch really stand out with me. The techniques he used to dominate the wrestling in those fights are not traditionally what you would teach people. His positioning was bad.

His technique was off. However, he is so resilient and determined that he will hit those same techniques—whether they are sloppy or not—over and over until he’s in the position he wants to be in. He is a consummate competitor. This guy will compete so hard, but again, I could say the same thing about Shields. The strongest thing Shields has is an iron will to win.

The reason some guys transition from Jiu-Jitsu into MMA and some guys don’t all comes down to mindset. It never comes down to technique. A lot of reporters and analysts like to talk like it is. I go on UFC Tonight and I talk about it as well, but it’s just not true. Some guys have the mind for it and some guys don’t. Technique comes so far down the list of what matters and what a guy needs to become a successful fighter. But as reporters and analysts, we act like it’s the main thing. How is his training going and who is he training with? What’s he working on? That is a bunch of crap.

 

In weighing out this matchup in the bigger picture, it feels as if the fight is more crucial for Shields. He came to the UFC with a lot of momentum but just hasn’t been able to solidify himself at the level he was at pre-UFC. Granted, he has had a title shot under the UFC banner, but weight-class jumping, a short suspension and a few super-close fights haven’t made a very strong case for him being a rock-solid contender. Would you agree or disagree?

No, I don’t know if I would agree with that. This is a big fight for both guys and there is no way around that, but Shields is going to have a place for a while. He has a lot of laurels and a lot of things he’s accomplished. 

If you throw out the GSP fight because nobody has beaten GSP, and you throw out him getting caught by [Jake] Ellenberger, because that’s what happened—he got caught, and the guy hasn’t lost in seven years. If you include those two fights, he’s only lost two fights in seven years. Either way you want to say that, it’s impressive. 

He gets criticized at times for his style, but his style is very effective. He has some skills that guys need to copy as opposed to criticize. I really think the way Maia matches up, excitement is not going to be a problem. I think these guys are going to get after it and it’s going to be a very fun fight to watch.

 

Let’s move on to the co-main event between Erick Silva and Dong Hyun Kim. Both are looking to break through into the upper tier of the welterweight division. What are your thoughts on this stylistic matchup?

This “Stun Gun” is a guy you just can’t ignore. He keeps on getting it done. I believe he’s only lost two fights. One was a bit of a fluke to Maia where he got hurt and, in the other, he took a knee from Carlos [Condit] that would’ve put a mule down. None of us could have survived that shot. This guy is very good and his confidence seems to be growing.

He claims he deals with jet lag. He claims the reason he’s had trouble showing skills in some of his fights and getting tired is due to jet lag. He’s still effective and still winning, but he claims he’s even better and just hasn’t been able to show it. I don’t know how going to Brazil is going to affect him. He’s a dominant grappler in some regards and good at getting to that top position, but he also has some good power, he’s big for the weight class and he’s a very long fighter. That protects him at times and makes up for things he’s lacking in technique. His physical stature seems to compensate very well. 

As for Silva, he’s very good. He lost to Fitch in a fight where Fitch was in a must-win situation. You could see it. You could see his determination and Silva was a step behind the entire fight. But I thought he rebounded very well. He has a solid skill set, but if Fitch could get this guy down and keep him there, I think the “Stun Gun” is planning that same strategy. We’re all curious to see what adjustments Erick Silva made.

 

It’s a similar feeling in the bantamweight division bout between T.J. Dillashaw and Raphael Assuncao. Both have looked great as of late and both have title aspirations. Dillashaw is a young prospect with a lot of road ahead, but Assuncao has been around the game for a while and this run at 135 pounds is new life for him. Is this fight make or break for Assuncao in that regard?

Assuncao is one of the least-known fighters ranked in the top five—possibly ever. He’s definitely the least-known top-five ranked fighter currently fighting. He’s very good and it’s a big opportunity. Dillashaw is on such a roll, and there is the story about Duane Ludwig coming in as their coach and that team being something like 13-0 under him.

On paper, Dillashaw is in a bit over his head with his ranking compared to Assuncao‘s, but in reality, Dillashaw is on fire. He’s knocking guys out and he’s on a roll right now. He’s a very good wrestler. He’s in great shape. He has awesome training partners.

Assuncao likes to drag guys down to the ground and I don’t think that’s very likely here. If he is going to win I believe he’s going to have to show some different skills we haven’t seen from him inside the Octagon so far.

 

We all love technical fights with title contention on the line, but sometimes a good old fashioned slugfest is in order. Fabio Maldonado and Joey Beltran are about to do this thing on Wednesday and the ruckus is guaranteed. What is your take on this fight and the placement of the brawl in the grand scheme of things in MMA?

I know that I enjoy a good brawl when it happens and two guys are willing to do it. It usually happens on accident more than anything. A guy ends up in a slugfest, just stands his ground and they start going back and forth. I love this fight.

You have a very proud Brazilian fighter who is arguably the toughest guy in the division with Maldonado. The shots that he takes, the heart and willingness he displays are all impressive. We all get he came from a boxing background and he needs to work on his skills, but as far as his heart and toughness…everybody admires him.

He’s taking on a tough guy in Joey Beltran who is a powerful guy in his own right but somewhat new to the weight class. We’ll see what happens here, but I don’t see either of these guys giving up. You have a proud Brazilian fighter versus a proud Mexican fighter. I think that fight should be a little more anticipated than it is.

The co-main event for me and the match I want to see the most outside of Maia vs. Shields is Mike Pierce vs. Rousimar Palhares. That’s the fight I’m personally really looking forward to. I like the stylistic matchup in this fight. It will be Palhares‘ first time dropping down to welterweight, and Pierce has been on a crazy run. He’s won his last four fights, something like six of his last eight, and that is an impressive feat for a guy who really isn’t that talked about.

 

You just mentioned Mike Pierce and that brings up an interesting question. He has been very successful inside the Octagon, winning eight of his last 10 showings, including his current streak where he’s collected four consecutive victories. That being said, Pierce has been on Facebook prelims and undercard bouts for the majority of this run. What do you think is keeping him from breaking through with the UFC fanbase?

That’s what it is, the fans. You’ll either have the backing of the fans or you won’t. There are a couple of ways, and nobody truly knows what makes a star. We’ve all got our guesses. We can all sit around and hypothesize what it will take, but no one really knows. The one thing all the stars have as a constant is they win, and Mike Pierce wins. Eventually he’s going to get there. He just needs to keep winning and time will get him there. The more you fight, the more promotion, media and marketing you’re going to have. 

He had a big opportunity a while back against Josh Koscheck. That was a co-main event and I was in the building for that fight. Nobody agreed with that decision and that would have been his breakthrough moment, but he stubbed his toe and had to start over in some respects. But he has, and he’s beaten some absolute studs in the process. Aaron Simpson is one of them. It was a come-from-behind win, and for me it was the Fight of the Night and the Knockout of the Night. I really think he’s done some wonderful things.

I also understand he’s had some growing pains. He’s had some less-than-exciting fights, but he came into the UFC a little bit early. I think he was one of those guys that might have been drafted just a little bit early so he was trying to figure this thing out in there. And they really don’t like that. You can’t really figure things out inside the Octagon. There is an expectation that when you step in there you’ve got it all handled. But I really think those performances some label poor are distant memories. I really think they are far behind him. I look forward to this guy fighting every single time he fights. He shows up in shape. He’s ornery. He takes a beating and gives a beating back. I really think Mike Pierce is the total package.

 

Duane Finley is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. All quotes are obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise.

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UFC Fight Night 29: Preliminary Card Predictions

It’s seemed like an eternity, but the UFC returns with their 29th installment of the “Fight Night” series on Wednesday. Headlined by welterweight contenders Jake Shields and Demian Maia, the card hosts a bevy of Brazilian talent, as well as talent from…

It’s seemed like an eternity, but the UFC returns with their 29th installment of the “Fight Night” series on Wednesday. Headlined by welterweight contenders Jake Shields and Demian Maia, the card hosts a bevy of Brazilian talent, as well as talent from a couple of other countries.

Before the main card, we have a four-fight preliminary card. Unfortunately, the most intriguing fight of the prelims was cancelled over the weekend, as Rodrigo Damm has kidney issues and an opponent couldn’t be found for Hacran Dias.

Here are the predictions for the preliminary card this upcoming Wednesday. 

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