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‘UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir’ Main Card Preview and Predictions

(A helpful little video-primer, via YouTube.com/UFC)

By Ryan Sarr

What better way to kick off the summer this Memorial Day weekend than with the star-studded, all-heavyweight UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir. Though Alistair Overeem’s drug test dodging/excuse-making skills weren’t enough to save the original UFC 146 main event, we’re still in for a spectacular heavyweight title tilt with JDS and Frank Mir.

Dos Santos made his UFC debut almost four years ago at UFC 90, and three days before the fight Dana White posted footage of JDS hitting mits on his online video blog. Dos Santos’s hands looked incredible, and suddenly money came pouring in on the heavy underdog to beat Fabricio Werdum, which he did in devastating fashion. Since then, Dos Santos has put together the best resume in UFC Heavyweight history, destroying everyone in his path. So, is Mir going to be just another notch on JDS’s belt, or will JDS have an appointment with the orthopedic surgeon Sunday morning? Join me as I break down each fight on UFC 146’s main card, and don’t forget to come back to CagePotato tomorrow night for our liveblog of the event.

Junior Dos Santos (14-1, 8-0 UFC) vs. Frank Mir (16-5, 14-5 UFC)

They say that styles make fights, and Saturday night’s heavyweight championship is going to be a clash between two men who are the best in the division at their chosen styles. Junior Dos Santos is so confident in his boxing skills that he says he could hang with the Klitschko brothers with three months’ training, and Frank Mir’s jiu-jitsu is so good that he broke Minotauro Nogueira’s arm after Nogueira had Mir teetering on unconsciousness. Both of these men have a wealth of Octagon experience, but neither man has ever fought into the championship rounds of a fight. That shouldn’t be an issue Saturday night, however, for this fight will probably end well before the final bell.

For Dos Santos, the game plan is simple: keep this fight on the feet. Dos Santos’ belief in his hands has to be at an all-time high, as he’s coming off his knockout of previously undefeated former champion Cain Velasquez in 64 seconds. If JDS can control the Octagon against Mir and use his superb counter-punching, I can see him finishing Mir early. Dos Santos has very quick hands for a heavyweight, and his uppercut is devastating. Just one counter hook or uppercut, and it could be lights out for Mir.

(A helpful little video-primer, via YouTube.com/UFC)

By Ryan Sarr

Dos Santos made his UFC debut almost four years ago at UFC 90, and three days before the fight Dana White posted footage of JDS hitting mits on his online video blog. Dos Santos’s hands looked incredible, and suddenly money came pouring in on the heavy underdog to beat Fabricio Werdum, which he did in devastating fashion. Since then, Dos Santos has put together the best resume in UFC Heavyweight history, destroying everyone in his path. So, is Mir going to be just another notch on JDS’s belt, or will JDS have an appointment with the orthopedic surgeon Sunday morning? Join me as I break down each fight on UFC 146′s main card, and don’t forget to come back to CagePotato tomorrow night for our liveblog of the event.

Junior Dos Santos (14-1, 8-0 UFC) vs. Frank Mir (16-5, 14-5 UFC)

Mir’s striking skills have gotten better in the past few years, as he has outstruck and finished notable strikers Mirko Cro Cop and Chieck Kongo, but Mir would not be wise to try his luck on the feet Saturday night. As Mir has stated, he’s looking to pull guard on Dos Santos, and work off his back to submit him. It has to worry Dos Santos that Mir just snapped the arm of the man who teaches him jiu-jitsu, and I don’t see any circumstance where JDS would voluntarily go to the ground with Mir, even following a knockdown. So, the key to this fight, in my mind, is the clinch game. Mir has shown that he is vulnerable to the uppercut in the clinch, and Dos Santos could easily finish the fight there, but if Mir can control the clinch and get Dos Santos to the ground, it might be time to prep the surgery room for Dos Santos.

Prediction: Dos Santos’ is a great defensive wrestler, and has never been taken to the ground for a significant amount of time. I don’t see Frank Mir being able to change that; JDS will keep this fight standing and finish Mir in the first round with a trademark uppercut.

Cain Velasquez (9-1, 7-1 UFC) vs. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva (16-3, 0-0 UFC)

This matchup seems tailor-made for Velasquez to rebound following his November loss to Junior Dos Santos. Velasquez was steamrolling the competition before he was caught by a right hand from JDS at UFC on Fox 1. He still remains the best wrestler in the heavyweight division, and even though he weighs only 245 lbs, Velasquez has proven he has no problem handling bigger guys like Silva, who will probably weigh over 275 lbs on Saturday night. Plus, his American Kickboxing Academy teammate Daniel Cormier just demolished Silva last September in the semi-finals of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix.

Silva looked impressive in his victory over Fedor Emelianenko, but how much of that can be attributed to Fedor’s waning abilities and Silva’s sheer size advantage? Silva just doesn’t have an area of advantage in this fight. Velasquez is very similar in style to Cormier, in that he is a world-class wrestler that can easily take you down and pound on you, and he can also stand in front of you and knock you out. Silva is not going to outwork and outpoint Velasquez, his only shot in this fight is to connect with punches early and get a quick knockout like Junior Dos Santos did. I just don’t think Velasquez will give him the chance.

Prediction: Velasquez keeps the pressure on Silva with takedowns and solid ground and pound, and grinds out a unanimous decision victory, never giving Silva a chance to knock him out.

Dave Herman (21-3, 1-1 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (16-7, 3-3 UFC)

Both fighters come into this fight following losses in their last outings, Nelson to Fabricio Werdum and Herman to Stefan Struve. It is Nelson, however, who seems to have the advantage in this fight. Nelson has fought much better opponents than Herman, and even knocked out Struve in under a minute when they fought a couple years ago. Nelson has a great right hand, solid takedowns, and the ability to do serious damage on the ground. Herman prefers to stand and strike, and is not afraid to be aggressive with his attacks. Both of these fighters have questionable gas tanks though, and the winner could very well be the man whose cardio holds up over three rounds. Herman’s best chance is to knock out Nelson, but those chances are slim, for Nelson has proven to be very difficult to finish.

Prediction: Roy Nelson bounces back and just like he did to Kimbo, gives Dave Herman the Big Country crucifix en route to a second-round stoppage.

Stipe Miocic (8-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Shane Del Rosario (11-0, 0-0 UFC)

In their 19 combined fights, only one has gone the distance, and the undefeated Del Rosario has never even seen the third round of a fight. Though he hasn’t fought in over a year, Del Rosario looked impressive in his last fight when he dispatched fellow heavyweight prospect Lavar Johnson in the first round with an armbar. Miocic knocked out undefeated Philip de Fries in less than a minute in his last fight, and he has shown in his two Octagon outings that he has solid takedowns and effective striking. Del Rosario, however, is much better than anyone Miocic has ever fought, and I don’t think Miocic will be able to keep Del Rosario from taking him down and imposing his will.

Prediction: Look for Del Rosario to go for the takedown early, and from there advance his position while delivering lots of damage to Miocic. Miocic will just be another stepping stone for Del Rosario, who will win by first round TKO.

Lavar Johnson (17-5, 2-0 UFC) vs. Stefan Struve (23-5, 7-3 UFC)

This fight could very well be the Fight of the Night on Saturday. After fan-favorite Mark Hunt bowed out due to injury, Johnson stepped into his slot against Struve only three weeks removed from his destruction of Pat Barry at UFC on Fox 3. Both Johnson and Struve love to strike, and we could see lots of big punches traded between these two. The difference in this fight though is the ground game. While Struve has shown he is very adept on the ground, with 15 submission victories in his career, Johnson’s ground game (or lack thereof) was exposed by Pat Barry, who isn’t known for his submission or wrestling skills. Struve does have a susceptible chin however, with all three of his UFC losses coming by first-round knockout. So, if Johnson can land some of those big punches he landed against Barry on Struve, Johnson can easily take this fight. But Struve will likely try to get this fight to the ground, where he can work his submissions on Johnson, who surely didn’t grow a ground game in three weeks.

Prediction: While still very young, Stefan Struve has been somewhat of a heavyweight gatekeeper — and he will slam that gate closed on Johnson Saturday night. Struve by first-round triangle choke.

Jared vs. Ben — ‘UFC 135: Jones vs. Rampage’ Edition

(Simon Cowell said they sucked. L.A. Reid said they sucked. Nicole Scherzinger said they sucked. Paula Abdul said they should keep practicing and never give up their dreams. / Props: jessektabor2)

UFC 135 goes down tomorrow night in Denver, and as always, it’s incredibly important that you hear our opinions about it. Fresh off his controversial split-decision victory over Seth Falvo, CagePotato staff writer Jared Jones returns for another head-to-head column against founding editor Ben Goldstein. Can Rampage pull off an upset? Is Matt Hughes on his way to retirement? Whose new screen-name will be more humiliating? Read on and get yourself educated…

Is there a part of you that wants to see Rampage get his belt back? How likely is that to happen?

JJ: There will always be a small part of me that wants to see Page with a belt again, if only so I never have to watch that same clip of Rampage exclaiming just how much he wants it back in every pre-fight commercial he’s been in since losing it. On the other hand, I fear for the lives of Southern California if he does win the belt and then loses it again.

As far as the likelihood of Page being the champ again, I’d say it’s better than those bookies would have you believe, but not much. Let’s face it, Rampage earned this title shot with a razor thin decision over Lyoto Machida and an unimpressive decision over a now retired Matt Hamill. Yes, he seems incredibly focused and in shape and yes, Bones’ chin has yet to be tested, but Jones is simply too quick, diverse, and smart to get caught by a straight boxer like Rampage.

BG: First off, no, I don’t want to see Rampage get his belt back. Not even a little. Dude gives me a headache sometimes. Like Nick Diaz, he’s a paranoid weirdo with a persecution complex — everybody’s cocky, everybody’s fake. Look, if you’re one of the hordes of eCritics that have emerged since Jones beat up Shogun, I’m sure you have your reasons. But to me, Jon Jones represents the latest step in MMA’s evolution, and it would feel like a regression if he were unseated by a guy who pretty much just throws hands these days.

The odds on this fight are so inflated because as loud as Rampage’s supporters can be sometimes, nobody’s actually betting money on him. Why would they? Jones has an 11.5-inch reach advantage, he’s far more athletic, and he’s unpredictable. Bones might beat up Rampage standing just to prove a point. After Saturday, we can stop calling Jones the “future of MMA.” He’ll officially be the present — a defending champion. Now what will that make Rampage?

(Simon Cowell said they sucked. L.A. Reid said they sucked. Nicole Scherzinger said they sucked. Paula Abdul said they should keep practicing and never give up their dreams. / Props: jessektabor2)

Is there a part of you that wants to see Rampage get his belt back? How likely is that to happen?

Josh Koscheck is going to kick Matt Hughes’s ass, right? I mean, that’s not really a question, so…how do you feel about the fact that Josh Koscheck is going to kick Matt Hughes’s ass?

BG: I mean, I don’t feel sad about it if that’s what you’re asking. Between his two welterweight title reigns and induction into the UFC Hall of Fame, Hughes has accomplished all there is to accomplish in this sport. I don’t think another championship belt is in his future, and I don’t really need to see him spend a couple more years knocking around against other contenders. His wife is ready for him to come home. Come home, Matt.

As for tomorrow’s fight, Koscheck has the striking advantage and Hughes won’t be able to put him on his back with any consistency. Kos by late TKO, followed by an emotional in-cage retirement from Hughes, as the crowd solemnly sings “A Country Boy Can Survive” in unison.

JJ: Ben, you ignorant slut. Weren’t we all saying the same thing about Ricardo Almeida just a little while ago? Matt Hughes may be coming off one of the most embarrassing (not to mention fastest) losses of his career, but this ain’t gunna be no walk in the park for Fraggle Rock. Koscheck’s striking has been overrated praised ever since his brutal finish of Yoshiyuki Yoshida, but was all but useless against GSP. Is Hughes as good on the feet as GSP? Hell no, but his wrestling is better than Koschecks, and if, no, WHEN he eeks out a boring decision over Koscheck, I’ll be dancing my cares away with all that extra bread.

Does the loser of Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi deserve to keep their spot in the UFC?

JJ: If this was a just world, I would say no. But Michael Bay still finds work, so it clearly isn’t, and as long as these guys WAR!!! then who the hell knows what’s going to happen. Diaz has only won three of his past eight fights, his wrestling sucks, and he isn’t anywhere near anyone’s top 10, or 20 for that matter. If Gomi loses, it’ll probably be by submission, and as much as it pains me to see him off, he would need a few wins elsewhere and an improved ground game if he wants back in the UFC. But I am really hoping he is able to turn Diaz’s lights out, if only to know that is possible for Christ’s sake.

BG: I agree that the loser should have to get a couple tune-up wins outside of the UFC, but I’ll put it like this — Gomi’s job is safe and Nate’s isn’t. Even if Gomi gets boxed up and gogo’d in the first round, the UFC will still keep him around for their upcoming Japan show, guaranteed. As for Diaz? He got bounced out of the lightweight division, then bounced out of the welterweight division, and now he’s back at lightweight. Another bad loss, and it would be clear that there’s really no place for him. Plus, don’t you think Dana wants to stick it to the Diaz family after that shit Nick pulled? King Pinkberry never forgets.

Pop-quiz, hot shot: You have $100. Using the current fight odds for UFC 135, you have to use that Benjamin to turn a profit, or the bus will explode. What do you do? WHAT DO YOU DO?

JJ: First, hand me that old bucket filled with bum sperm!! Seriously though, I would say the easiest way would be to bet it all on Page or Hughes, who are the most attractive underdogs, but I’m a man of variety. Despite getting swarmbashed (new term, called it) by a fever ridden Kyle Kingsbury recently, Ricardo Romero looks decent at +140 against the submission susceptible James Te Huna, and if “Big” Ben Rothwell decides to trade strikes with Hunt, then it could be an early night for him…

Screw it, I’m gunna go ahead and drop half of that C-note on a Boetsch-Ferguson-Romero parlay and the other half on a Hughes-Page-Rothwell parlay. Let’s just hope my bookie is more forgiving than last time.

BG: Wow, Hughes and Jackson in the same parlay? How much is Bodog paying you to write this garbage? Learn from my mistakes, Jared — doubling up on parlays is the quickest way to heartbreak. During my years of giving terrible gambling advice, I think I’ve matured enough to learn a valuable lesson: There are some events where you simply can’t make a huge profit, so don’t even try. And let’s face it, these UFC 135 odds are a total nightmare, filled with blowouts where you can’t justify putting money on the favorite or the underdog. But if I have to, I’ll put $30 on Jon Jones, $30 on Travis Browne, $30 on Tony Ferguson, and $10 on Gomi for the upset. According to BetUS, that would give me a potential profit of $42.02. Yuck. Moving on…

Screen-name bet time: Make one specific prediction for a fight at UFC 135. The person who makes the more accurate prediction gets to change the other person’s commenter name to something embarrassing for a week.

JJ: Nate Diaz will give the old “Stockton Heybuddy” about a minute before finishing Takanori Gomi with a guillotine. Is that too obvious? Either way, enjoy being Bisping’sgaysecret for a week.

BG: Jon Jones TKO’s Quinton Jackson via ground-and-pound (elbows), midway through round 2. Enjoy it, AmberFromTeenMom.

Five Reasons to Watch ‘UFC Fight Night 25: Shields vs. Ellenberger’

(McGee vs. Yang, the middleweight showdown that UFC fans have been…wait a minute, remind me again who Yang is?)

Unless you’re one of those Bud Light ‘Battle on the Bayou’ contest winners, you’re probably not overly excited about Saturday’s “Shields vs. Ellenberger” UFC event on Spike. Boxing already has Saturday night locked up, with Floyd Mayweather‘s ring-return against 24-year-old WBC Welterweight champ Victor Ortiz, and it feels like UFC Fight Night 25 will be an overlooked prelude to next week’s Jones vs. Rampage card.

But let’s not admit defeat so soon. We’ll be liveblogging the Shields vs. Ellenberger main card on CagePotato.com starting at 9 p.m. ET, and it would be nice if a few of you showed up to keep us company. Could it be one of those “crap on paper, bonkers in reality” events? Who knows, but consider the following…

All Eyes on Jake: So far, Jake Shields‘s UFC career has consisted of an underwhelming (and razor-thin) split-decision victory over Martin Kampmann, and a rout at the hands of Georges St. Pierre. His dominant stretch of eight-straight stoppage victories in 2006-2009 are a distant memory in the minds of MMA fans, and he needs a dramatic win here, badly. Shields’s dance partner, Jake Ellenberger, has been spent years fighting for recognition, and with four straight Octagon wins over serious competition, he’s starting to get it. Stylistically, the fight might not be a barn-burner, but it could have career-altering implications for the headliners.

(McGee vs. Yang, the middleweight showdown that UFC fans have been…wait a minute, remind me again who Yang is?)

TUF Winners Return: Due to poorly-timed injuries, Court McGee and Jonathan Brookins — the winners of TUF 11 and TUF 12, respectively — haven’t competed since last year. Nevertheless, McGee is still a solid favorite over Dongi Yang, the South Korean fight-finisher who has split a pair of Octagon appearances, most recently TKO’ing Rob Kimmons in March. I’m much more concerned for Brookins, whose first post-TUF bout will be against Erik Koch, the Roufusport-trained killer who has won Knockout of the Night bonuses in his last two fights. My money’s on Koch here, especially considering the way Brookins was gobbling punches against Michael Johnson — and I’d also call this bout an early front-runner for Fight of the Night.

The Crowd-Pleaser: The UFC knew what they were doing in booking middleweights Alan Belcher and Jason MacDonald to kick off the main card. Both guys go for broke in every fight, and have eight combined performance bonuses to show for it. With back-to-back stoppage wins over Wilson Gouveia and Patrick Cote in his pocket, Belcher returns to the cage after the eye-ailment that nearly ended his career. And speaking of miraculous comebacks, MacDonald is coming off his first-round submission win against Ryan Jensen, which followed his gnarly leg-snap against John Salter.

Do or Die for Dunham: Once an undefeated blue-chip prospect in the lightweight division, Evan Dunham now has his back against the wall following two straight losses — one a bullshit decision against Sean Sherk, the other an ugly TKO against Melvin Guillard. His next opponent, Strikeforce/TUF 13 veteran Shamar Bailey, is a hefty underdog, but he’s got the wrestling skills and power to make it a contest. Can Dunham get his head back in the game and take care of business? Because if he doesn’t, he’ll very likely be out of a job.

Don’t Sleep On the Prelims: The entire “Shields vs. Ellenberger” preliminary card will be streamed on Facebook.com/UFC, and Dunham vs. Bailey isn’t the only match to keep an eye on. Following his Fight of the Night-worthy loss to Yves Edwards in January, Cody McKenzie — and his dreaded “McKenzietine” choke — will return against Vagner Rocha. Plus, Saturday night will kick off with the debut of Jorge Lopez, a 22-year-old welterweight who took a break from high-school at the age of 14 to train with Wanderlei Silva — which sounds a hell of a lot cooler than what I was doing at 14.

(BG)

The Time for Talk Is Almost Over…

(Pro fighters give their predictions for Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen. Dominick Cruz and Jake Shields actually pick the challenger for an upset. Props: YouTube.com/FightMagazine)
Come back to CagePotato.com tomorrow night at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m….

(Pro fighters give their predictions for Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen. Dominick Cruz and Jake Shields actually pick the challenger for an upset. Props: YouTube.com/FightMagazine)

Come back to CagePotato.com tomorrow night at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT for our liveblog of UFC 117, which will be run by weekend editor Chad Dundas. You can play along at home by entering some pools in our MMAFightPicker game. After all the hype and all the analysis, we’re dying to find out how Silva vs. Sonnen will actually play out. Where are you guys watching the fights anyway?

MMA FightPicker Heads-Up: Make Your Picks for ‘Jones vs. Matyushenko’!

(John Howard: You’d be a fool to pick against hair like that.)
Watching MMA is a lot more exciting when you have something riding on the outcome. And while you may not be bold enough to throw actual money on all those tasty underdogs, you can still p…

(John Howard: You’d be a fool to pick against hair like that.)

Watching MMA is a lot more exciting when you have something riding on the outcome. And while you may not be bold enough to throw actual money on all those tasty underdogs, you can still play along during Sunday’s UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko broadcast (Versus, 9 p.m. ET/ 6 p.m. PT) by casting your predictions in an MMA FightPicker pool. The game consists of 13 questions this week, covering all the marquee matchups as well as some specific questions on how the fights will play out. (Will there be a takedown within the first two minutes of the main event? Will James Irvin see the second round for the first time since 2006?) Check ’em out after the jump, join FightPicker if you haven’t already, and feel free to share your predictions in the comments section.

Dissection by Dallas: Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin @ UFC 116

By CagePotato contributor Dallas Winston For a match-up of such epic proportions, both literally and figuratively, Lesnar vs. Carwin does not offer a ton of evidence to analyze.
In the grand scheme of the MMA heavyweight scene, both Brock Lesnar an…

By CagePotato contributor Dallas Winston

For a match-up of such epic proportions, both literally and figuratively, Lesnar vs. Carwin does not offer a ton of evidence to analyze.

In the grand scheme of the MMA heavyweight scene, both Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin are relative newcomers, as their total career fights combined equates to a number one-half of former god Fedor Emelianenko’s times at bat. In only five fights, Lesnar has shown marked improvement and new aspects of an evolving game in each outing, and even though Carwin specified that his focus is becoming a well-rounded fighter, his right hand alone has left a trail of twelve motionless cadavers in its wake.

My team of MMA scientists submitted the official report from their pre-fight ceremonial ritual — in which bits of evidence are fed into the “MMA Math Machine” to extrapolate key factors that assist in fight predictions — and the findings for both read: Big. Strong. Wrestle good. Punch hard.

As much I’d like to over-glorify things, that’s really what this fight boils down to.