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UFC on FX 3 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman If the main event features two fighters who are startlingly similar, this fight is the exact opposite. Charlie Brenneman and Erick Silva couldn’t be more different in their approaches. Brenneman.

Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman

If the main event features two fighters who are startlingly similar, this fight is the exact opposite. Charlie Brenneman and Erick Silva couldn’t be more different in their approaches. Brenneman is a calculated strategist whose five UFC victories have all come via decision including his latest victory over Daniel Roberts. On the other end of the spectrum, Erick Silva fights with an unbridled aggression that has twice caused him to lose fights due to illegal strikes. This will be a classic test of which fighter can impose his style of fighting on his opponent.

Charlie Brenneman is 5-2 in his UFC career with one of the losses coming to the absurd weight-cutting of Anthony Johnson. He has really only lost once in the UFC to someone who belongs in his weight class and that was to Johnny Hendricks who has currently worked his way into title contention. Brenneman isn’t at that level but a few more wins and the UFC will have to take notice. His style doesn’t make him a fan favorite and that has hindered his marketability. His last fight is a perfect example of that. He thoroughly outclassed Roberts and controlled every aspect of the fight. The outcome was never in doubt as Brenneman dominated position for all fifteen minutes. But in those fifteen minutes, he did little damage despite getting into dominant positions including the mounted crucifix twice. But that style will be his greatest asset against Silva. Brenneman will want to avoid trading on the feet and suck his opponent into a grinding grappling contest. If he allows himself to be drawn into a brawl he could find himself in trouble or even unconscious. But if he can use his striking to set up takedowns and control Silva, he should be able to earn the victory.

Erick Silva is explosive. He has finished his last four opponents in the first round. That includes back to back first minute TKOs in the UFC. The last fight was ruled a DQ due to strikes to the back of the head but even referee Mario Yamasaki admitted that he made the wrong call in that fight. Silva’s gameplan isn’t complicated. He will look to explode on Brenneman the same way he has exploded on all his opponents. An early finish is entirely possible and will probably be his most likely route to victory as Brenneman is a master of grinding opponents into the mat over the full fifteen minutes. That said, Silva will need to wait for the right opportunity to attack. If he attacks recklessly and gets off balance, Brenneman will take advantage and put him on his back. Silva has shown a good submission game in Brazil but he hasn’t had to contend with a fighter who has a base and defense like the one he’ll be facing on Friday. Controlling his explosive aggression and timing his attack properly will be the key for Silva.

Silva is the favorite at -145 with Brenneman at +125. This is a relatively close line for an MMA fight and both fighters have a legitimate path to victory. Silva will look to end the fight early by overwhelming Brenneman with power and explosiveness. Brenneman will look to survive that early onslaught, drag the fight out as long as possible and pull out the victory in the final rounds. History says that the more experienced fighter with better positioning and control is likely to win the fight. But if Silva destroys Brenneman the way he has destroyed his first two opponents, he will be officially announcing his arrival as a factor in the welterweight division.

Josh Neer vs. Mike Pyle

What a great way to start the main card. Neither of these fighters will ever compete for a UFC title but they have both been fixtures in MMA for years with Pyle debuting in 1999 and Neer coming along four years later in 2003. Both have improved immensely in their time in the sport and have consistently provided fans with high level entertaining fights. They are both well-rounded with the ability to finish from any position. Old school fans will be looking forward to this fight as much or more than any other fight on the card aside from the main event.

Mike Pyle is 5-3 in his most recent UFC stint including a TKO victory over Richard Funch in his last appearance. He landed a big right hand followed by a knee that dropped Funch. He then pounced and landed a few more strikes to stop the fight. That kind of finish is unlikely against the absurdly durable Neer. Pyle will more than likely need to beat Neer for fifteen minutes if he wants to earn the victory. He has the stand up game to compete with Neer on the feet and fifteen minutes of striking would be a treat for the fans. But the more likely route to victory would be to put Neer on his back and use grappling to control the fight. Even from there, Neer will still be dangerous and Pyle will need to be wary of submissions. And getting Neer to the mat won’t be easy either. If Pyle can’t get the takedown, look for him to step back and try to win the fight with his kickboxing.

Josh Neer is one of those fighters who seems to be incapable of being in a boring fight. He tries to finish from every position and has the skill set to do so. He was released from the UFC after back to back losses in 2009 but earned his way back in with four consecutive wins in 2011 and has now won back to back UFC fights including an impressive first round submission of Duane Ludwig in January. Ludwig was winning the fight on the feet as would be expected but Neer was able to land a takedown and caught Ludwig in a guillotine as he attempted to get back to a standing position. Expect him to try to keep the fight standing against Kyle as he should have the advantage. But he won’t be afraid to grapple with Pyle and this fight could end up showcasing all aspects of MMA. Neer needs to be careful of spending too much time on his back looking for submissions as the judges will not look favorably on that if the fight goes to a decision. He has the ability to win wherever the fight goes but his most likely road to victory takes place in the striking game.

Pyle comes into this fight as the favorite at -190 with Neer the underdog at +165. Once again, I’m surprised at the gap in these lines as Neer has a legitimate chance to win this fight. Pyle should be able to use his wrestling to get Neer on the ground but whether or not he can keep him there could determine who wins the fight. Neer will look to land damaging shots on the feet and catch a submission if the fight ends up on the mat. If Kyle can avoid those attempts and control the pace of the fight, he can earn the victory. If not, Neer could walk away with another upset.

TUF 15 Finale – Post Fight Analysis

The main event at the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale resulted in an upset as Martin Kampann finished Jake Ellenberger with a second round TKO after landing a short counter right hand and following up with knee strikes. In typical Kampmann style, he was knocked down by a huge Ellenberger right hand in the first round but managed to survive a difficult spot to come back and earn the victory. Most of Kampmann’s fights end with both competitors wearing the evidence of a back and forth striking battle and last night’s installment was no different. The opening round of the fight started with both fighters wary of the other’s dangerous striking. Ellenberger landed the right hand half way through the round and pounced on Kapmann in an attempt to end the fight. Kampmann was aware enough to defend against the ground and pound barrage that ensued forcing Ellenberger to slow down to avoid burning himself out. Kampmann was more aggressive to begin the second round and started to hurt Ellenberger with counter punches. A quick counter right hand that was almost imperceptible sent Ellenberger stumbling toward the cage and Kampmann moved forward patiently to finish the fight. He landed two big knees that dropped his opponent and would have continued his attack on the ground had the fight not been stopped. Initially, the stoppage seemed quick but Ellenberger wasn’t upset with it and the replay showed that he was not in a defensive position. For Ellenberger, this is a step back after years of climbing the welterweight ladder. With losses to current interim 170 pound champion Carlos Condit and Kampmann, he will have to put together a few victories in a row to get back into the title picture. For Kampmann, he has taken one step closer to a title fight. The most likely fight after last night’s results seems to be a contender fight with Johnny Hendricks who recently defeated Josh Koscheck.

Charles Oliveira earned his second consecutive victory at 145 pounds when Jonathan Brookins tapped to a second round guillotine choke. Oliveira was clearly the better fighter throughout the fight with Brookins only gaining an advantage when he was briefly able to draw Oliveira into wild brawling exchanges. For most of the fight, Oliveira stayed on the outside landing punches and leg kicks while occasionally closing the distance with combinations. Oliviera put Brookins on his back in the second round and took advantage of his opponent’s attempt to stand up by latching on to a guillotine choke and submitting Brookins. We may have seen Brookins’ ceiling in the fight and while he can provide interesting fights going forward, he will probably never be a title contender. Expect to see him get a more winnable fight in his next cage appearance as the UFC looks to protect its former Ultimate Fighter winner. For Oliviera, this was one more step toward what looks to be an inevitable rise to the upper echelon of the featherweight division. The question for the UFC is how fast to move him along because if they put him in with a top competitor too quickly, his relative inexperience at age twenty two could lead to a loss. However, he has established that mid tier fighters will not provide any competition so feeding him two or three more easy fights may not be the best decision either.

In the other non TUF related fight on the card, Max Holloway dominated Pat Schilling. At just twenty years old, Holloway was impressive and his development over the next few years will be interesting to watch. After being outclassed by Dustin Poirier in his first UFC fight, Holloway was able to display his full arsenal against Schilling. He brutalized Shilling’s body with punches that left his opponnent barely able to get back to a standing position by the end of the fight. Holloway showed excellent poise in following his gameplan, which was clearly not to engage with Schilling on the ground and keep the fight on the feet. The only time he was in any danger was when Schilling latched on to a kneebar at the end of the first round. From that point, Holloway refused to go to the ground even after dropping Schilling with punches. He made his opponent stand up and continued his assault on the feet. The only way he could have been more impressive was to finish the fight but considering his age and striking acumen, Holloway is on the right track toward becoming a factor in the 145 pound division.

TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak.

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampann

Both fighters in the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale’s main event are coming off of wins in their most recent bouts with Martin Kampmann currently on a two fight win streak while while Jake Ellenberger is riding a six fight win streak after losing his opening appearance in the the UFC. The winner of this fight will establish himself as a title contender in the 170 lb division where Georges St. Pierre awaits interim champion Carlos Condit. Whoever earns the victory on Friday night should be no more than one fight away from a shot at the belt.

Kampmann pulled out a last minute submission via guillotine choke over Thiago Alves in his last appearance in the cage. The fight had been extremely competitive up to that point with Alves having a slight advantage on my scorecard in each of the first two rounds. The third round would have been close as well if not for Kampmann’s timely submission. In his recent fights, the “Hitman” has shown improved wrestling. He was able to avoid Rick Story’s takedowns for the most part at UFC 139 and when he did end up on the ground, he was able to get back to his feet quickly. He even managed to take Story down in that fight. Kampmann will once again be facing an opponent with a strong wrestling background in Ellenberger. I expect Kampann to use his newly improved wrestling to keep the fight standing and use his best weapon, which is his pinpoint Muay Thai striking, to outpoint Ellenberger on the feet. In order to accomplish that goal, Kampmann will need to utilize quick movement to stay away from Ellenberger’s power and land quick combinations. If he can time Ellenberger’s powerful right hand, he might be able to find the range for counter striking. But all of that will be difficult to accomplish against one of the toughest tests he has faced in his career thus far.

Jake Ellenberger is a world class athlete just now coming into the prime of his career at age twenty seven. He has everything a fighter needs to be title contender in the UFC. He has one punch KO power in both hands. He has a collegiate wrestling background. He trains with a great team. He has plenty of experience. Simply put, this is his moment. A win, especially an impressive one, would give put him right in the middle of the title picture that currently features St. Pierre and Condit as well as Johnny Hendricks after his recent defeat of Josh Koscheck. Ellenberger’s last loss came against Condit in 2009 via split decision and since then, he has reeled off six consecutive wins with his most recent coming against Diego Sanchez in February. Four of those wins came via (T)KO. He has scary power in his hands and over the past year or so, he has evolved from a wrestler with power into an impressively well-rounded mixed martial artist. A lot of fighters have power but Ellenberger has honed his stand-up to a degree where he now has the technical skill to consistently land his power shots. On Saturday, he will face one of the best strikers in the welterweight division. I expect him to stand with Kampmann initially and hope to land a power shot while avoiding his opponent’s combinations. If he begins to consistently lose the exchanges on the feet, look for him to go back to his wrestling and try to put Kampmann on his back. But that won’t be easy as Kampmann is difficult to take down and has an excellent submission game once the fight hits the mat.

Ellenberger is the clear favorite in this fight at -225 with Kampann coming in at +185. I expect this fight to take place mostly on the feet and in theory, that would favor Kampmann who is the more technical striker. The problem with that is that Ellenberger is also a good striker with the power to end the fight instantaneously. Clearly, the oddsmakers give the combination of Ellenberger’s power and his potential to take the fight to the ground and control from top position the advantage in this fight and a (T)KO finish for Ellenberger seems to be the most logical outcome for this fight. But if he can’t find Kampmann’s chin, the “Hitman” could pull off the upset by using his technical Muay Thai game to earn a decision.

By Alan Wells

TUF 15 Finale Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira..

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathan Brookins

In a matchup of fighters trying to establish themselves in the 145 pound division, former Ultimate Fighter winner Jonathan Brookins returns to the octagon to face Brazilian prodigy Charles Oliveira. Both fighters are coming off of rebound victories in their previous appearance with Brookins defeating Vagner Rocha in February and Oliveira defeating Eric Wisely in January.

Brookins is a well rounded fighter who has shown the ability to finish with both strikes and submissions. He seems to lull opponents to sleep with his calm approach and unassuming personality. I would imagine fighters have a difficult time working up any animosity against Brookins who is one of the more humble and peaceful competitors in the UFC. But despite his personality, he has finishing instincts as he showed in his previous fight when he took out Rocha with ground and pound in the first round. Brookins seems to be confident wherever the fight goes so I expect him to stand with Oliveira until he feels threatened. If he starts to lose in the standup game, look for him to try to push Oliveira against the fence and turn the fight into a dirtier game of clinch work and scrambles. Oliveira appears to be the more talented fighter but that hasn’t stopped Brookins in the past and look for him to do whatever he can to take his young opponent out of his gameplan.

Oliveira is one of the most exciting young fighters in the UFC. He burst on to the scene at age 20 with an explosive armbar submission victory over Darren Elkins. After another victory, he lost two out of three fights against title caliber fighters Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone with a no decision against Nik Lentz due to an illegal knee sandwiched in between. I question why the UFC was putting him against that type of competition at age twenty one but it may turn out to be for the best as he has decided to move down to the featherweight division and was dominant in his first fight at that weight against Wisely. He made quick work of his overmatched opponent with a ridiculous calf slicer that most fight fans including myself had never seen used to finish a fight. This fight represents an appropriate step up in competition. He should have the advantage over Brookins wherever the fight goes but he will need to stay tight with his technique to earn the victory. Look for Oliveira to utilize his excellent striking game while being perfectly willing to display his grappling gift should Brookins decide to take the fight in that direction. Either way, Oliveira has the potential to give the fans an explosive finish.

Oliveira is a solid favorite at -200 with Brookins the underdog at +170. Oliveira has the talent advantage everywhere in this fight and I’m actually surprised the line isn’t a little more one-sided but I don’t blame the bookmakers for being wary of underestimating Brookins who has a habit of upsetting more talented opponents. Oliveira should have opportunities early against Brookins but if he doesn’t take advantage or if he gets sloppy or overconfident, Brookins can steal this fight. A longer fight benefits Brookins and if he can turn this into an ugly scrap with lots of close fighting against the cage, he might be able to grind his way to a decision.

By Alan Wells

UFC 146 – Thoughts and Opinions

–Let’s make this all-heavyweight card a one time experience. I enjoy watching the big guys go at it but for fifty bucks, I’d like to see more than 22 minutes of fights out of the.

–Let’s make this all-heavyweight card a one time experience. I enjoy watching the big guys go at it but for fifty bucks, I’d like to see more than 22 minutes of fights out of the main card. And with all the prelims airing on Facebook and FX, the old fix of just plugging in the earlier fights to fill the gaps in the broadcast isn’t as reliable because most fans have already seen them. The entirety of the five fights on the main card didn’t even add up to one full five round fight. So while the heavyweights are usually good for some fireworks, let’s make sure we mix in some lower weight classes to balance out the first round knockouts with some hard fought scraps that go the distance.

–Give us a rematch between Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez. I know the result will probably be similar to the first fight but after feeling the champion’s power, maybe Velasquez will be more aggressive in getting the fight to the ground and be able to put up a better fight. And more importantly, does anyone want to see Alistair Overeem anywhere near the UFC belt? He has long been considered one of the most egregious PED abusers in the sport based on circumstantial evidence and now that he’s been popped by the commission, can’t we just move on from the idea of him as a legitimate MMA contender? His body has changed more over the course of his career than Barry Bonds. I’ve been watching him since he was a young fighter with good striking, a weak chin, no cardio and no ground game fighting in Pride in Japan. Now, he looks like a completely different human being and having grown up in the era of PED use in all sports, I refuse to be naive and believe him when he says he’s clean.

–The entire MMA community is showering Cain Velasquez with praise after his win over Antonio Silva. Everything I’ve heard and read refers to the performance as dominant. To my eyes, that was not a dominant performance. Early in the first round, Silva threw a kick and Velasquez used it to score a takedown. Silva was defending well on the ground and keeping Velasquez from landing anything cleanly. The former champion managed to slip an elbow through Silva’s guard and even though it wasn’t a powerful strike, it opened a gushing gash on the bridge of Silva’s nose. From there, the cut blinded Silva and Velasquez was able to take advantage and land punches to finish the fight. I guess I just don’t consider landing a glancing elbow and then beating up a blind opponent to be as impressive as most other people in the MMA community, which leads to the next point.

–I suspect that if the situation on Saturday night was reversed and Silva had landed a glancing elbow that turned Velasquez’s face into a blood fountain, people would be calling the outcome a fluke and arguing for the UFC to ban elbows to the head of a grounded opponent. But because Velasquez was perceived to be the superior fighter going into the fight, his performance is viewed as justification of his status in the heavyweight division. So, should the UFC remove elbow strikes to the head of a grounded opponent from its fights? No. The only things that should be removed from the sport are techniques that can either cause life-altering injuries or require absolutely no technical skill. The classic example of that is groin strikes. Groin strikes are not allowed because anyone can kick someone in the groin and if they were allowed, the entire sport would be based on around developing a stance that protected the groin while setting up a myriad of groin attacks. And no one wants to see that. Obviously, elbows on the ground don’t fall into that category so they should remain a part of the sport. And while I’m on the subject, the UFC needs to bring back twelve to six elbows and knees to the head of a grounded opponent. I know they’re more focused on getting licensed in every state and in reality, they should be. But I’m tired of watching guys put one hand on the ground so they can’t be kneed. That goes against the spirit of the sport and it looks cheap. The more techniques remain in the sport, the faster and more fluid the fights will be.

UFC 146 – Post Fight Recap

The only surprise in the main event at UFC 146 was that Frank Mir was able to survive the first round against Junior Dos Santos. Mir attempted to take Dos Santos to the mat almost.

The only surprise in the main event at UFC 146 was that Frank Mir was able to survive the first round against Junior Dos Santos. Mir attempted to take Dos Santos to the mat almost immediately after the fight began but was never close to succeeding. Dos Santos stuffed the attempt easily and from that point, Mir seemed to resign himself to being unable to ground his opponent and spent the next six minutes playing a dangerous game. He stood in front of Dos Santos without utilizing much motion. He managed to land a few low kicks and touched Dos Santos with his jab but the conclusion of the fight seemed inevitable. Dos Santos was obviously not threatened by Mir’s striking and waited patiently for his opportunity to attack. He landed his first big punch at the end of the first round and followed with a flurry that pushed Mir back against the cage. The fight would have ended there if not for the bell signaling the end of the round. One would think that after feeling Dos Santos’ power, Mir would come out in the second round and desperately try to drag the fight to the ground. Instead, Mir employed the same strategy of standing in front of his opponent throwing low kicks. Predictably, the champion eventually landed a counter right hand that sent Mir reeling. Dos Santos landed a few more punches on the ground and Mir seemed to lose his bearings in the cage as he rolled toward nowhere in particular. Dos Santos used the opportunity to land one last hammer fist before Herb Dean stepped in to stop the fight. He probably could have let it go on longer but the outcome was inevitable and the stoppage saved Mir from suffering the brutal knockout that was clearly on its way. Mir will continue to be a fixture in the UFC heavyweight division but he doesn’t have the tools to be a champion in this era of MMA. Dos Santos will await the UFC’s decision as to who he will fight next. That fight will likely come against either Alistair Overeem after his nine month suspension or Cain Velasquez after his performance in the fight preceding Dos Santos’.

Cain Velasquez earned a gory victory over Antonio Silva with a first round TKO. Silva started the fight with a kick. Velasquez caught it and put Silva on his back. Silva appeared to be defending well until Velasquez slipped an elbow through his guard and opened a huge gushing cut on the bridge of Silva’s nose. The blood squirted from the cut directly into both of Silva’s eyes and made it impossible for him to defend himself. Velasquez took advantage and eventually was able to land several big punches in a row to earn the first round stoppage. This fight will undoubtedly reopen the debate as to the place of elbows on the ground in the sport but the real story is whether this performance was enough to earn Velasquez an immediate title shot rematch against Dos Santos. Alistair Overeem will return from his suspension in nine months and the UFC seems determined to give him the opportunity to fight for its belt despite the fact that Overeem is widely considered to be one the sport’s most blatant PED users. Many people within the sport speculated that a decisive victory by Velasquez would earn him the next title shot ahead of Overeem. The question coming out of this fight is how much of a statement did he make. The elbow that cut Silva was a glancing blow and had it not opened a freakish cut, who knows how the rest of the fight would have progressed. We may have seen a different outcome if Silva hadn’t been blinded by his own blood. But the elbow did cause the cut and Velasquez did exactly what he was supposed to do by seizing the opportunity to finish the fight. The UFC will have a difficult decision to make as to who deserves the next title shot but the one certainty is that the heavyweight division is deeper than ever before and several different interesting matchups are available.

Roy Nelson is a fan favorite for a reason. Actually, for several reasons. Fans love his belly, his beard and his right hand. Against Dave Herman, we got to see all three of them. But only for a short period of time. Nelson dispatched Herman in less than a minute with an overhand right flash knockout. The fight didn’t leave much room for analysis and because it was so short, we didn’t really learn anything about either fighter. Herman is a good fighter and anyone can get caught with a punch. Based on the short amount of time we got to see him fight, he seemed to have a good gameplan of trying to use his length to keep Nelson on the outside. We also didn’t learn anything new about Nelson. He has always had power in his hands and when he lands on the chin, the body to which that chin is attached usually crumples. Every Nelson victory is a victory for the fans who want him to remain in the UFC as long as possible and a knockout like that is the best way to secure his place on the biggest stage.

Stipe Miocic continued to progress through the UFC’s heavyweight division with a second round TKO victory over Shane Del Rosario. Del Rosario won the first round by repeatedly landing heavy kicks to Miocic’s body and legs. Miocic’s only weapon in that first round was his right hand and he was unable to land it cleanly. At the end of the first round, Miocic realized he could use his wrestling to easily put Del Rosario on his back and from that point on, Miocic completely controlled the fight. He took Del Rosario down again early in the second round and earned the victory by pummeling his opponent with hammer fists and elbows from the half guard. Del Rosario was unable to mount any defense and never really attempted to sweep or even regain full guard. If he hopes to compete in the UFC, he will need to put forth a better effort that he showed in this fight as he seemed to stop fighting once Miocic gained top position. For Miocic, this was an improvement over his last performance and he has showed growth in each of his UFC fights thus far. He is ready for a stiffer test and if he continues to improve, he could develop into an interesting presence in the UFC’s heavyweight division.

Going into the main card opener between Lavar Johnson and Stefan Struve, everyone who follows MMA knew that the fight had two possible outcomes. Either Johnson was going to land a punch and knock out Struve or Struve was going to get the fight to the ground and finish with a submission. Johnson did start aggressively and pushed Struve back against the cage with a flurry of punches. He landed one decent right hand but nothing clean enough to drop Struve. Having felt a hint of his opponent’s power, Struve grabbed an overhook and jumped guard. He pulled Johnson to the mat and quickly locked on to an arm bar to win the fight via first round submission. Struve did exactly what he needed to do in this fight and while he didn’t necessarily prove anything or show any growth, he did add a win to his record and earn the right to continue moving forward in the heavyweight division. If Johnson refuses to acknowledge the ground game, he will quickly find his way out of the UFC and back to smaller shows as a part of fights designed to put two big men in a cage and see who falls first. Hopefully, he’ll choose to work on the weak aspects of his game and come back with a skill set that can keep him competing at the highest level.