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Re-Evaluating the State of the UFC’s Heavyweight Division and Velasquez’s Future

One week ago, the UFC’s heavyweight division looked refined in its outline. Cain Velasquez holds the belt, former champion Junior dos Santos has a few wins to put together before he’ll be back in contention and Alistair Overeem was practically a …

Then along came UFC 156, and in just over 10 minutes, the entire future of the division was left a crumpled mess supported only by the Octagon’s fencing.

Apparently, no one informed Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva that “The Reem” was supposed to keep the division’s picture in focus. Silva upset the multi-sport champion early in the third round after being dominated for two full frames.

A quick shot caught a rushing Overeem in the opening seconds of the third stanza. Hurt, the Dutchman essentially shut down, back to the cage. Silva swarmed and roughly 10 (unanswered) punches later, Velasquez’s future was left hazy.

So where exactly does Velasquez go from here? Who now challenges the champion? Has Silva earned a second crack at the Team AKA standout?

It’s unlikely that “Bigfoot” meets Velasquez, having been stopped by the versatile champ less than one year ago. Silva’s compiled just two consecutive victories in the division since his first encounter with Velasquez, and stylistically, there’s little to suggest that Silva’s patched up his game enough to justify a rematch with Velasquez.

It’s more likely that we see Silva offered a few more top-10 foes before a return to championship competition. A bout with Josh Barnett seems to be the only viable option at this point. Silva holds a more prominent position in the top-10 rankings, but Barnett’s a diverse fighter with marquee pull behind his name, and a fight between the two presents interesting challenges for each man.

If Silva can topple Barnett, he’ll position himself for a title eliminator inside the calendar year. If Barnett can halt Silva’s momentum, he’ll make a massive statement and help to continue cooling the still-burning memory of the one-sided trouncing Daniel Cormier handed him at Strikeforce: Barnett vs. Cormier.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will meet Fabricio Werdum this June in Brazil. Should Werdum emerge victorious, he’ll have picked up three consecutive victories inside the Octagon, and he’ll tote the division’s best case for a deserved title shot.

If Nogueira once again outworks Werdum (“Minotauro” defeated his countryman via decision back at Pride: Critical Countdown Absolute), we’re back to examining a Rubik’s cube of a puzzle. Nogueira is 3-3 in his last six bouts, having failed to piece together two consecutive wins in the same stretch. The man won’t be in position to pine for a title shot until he’s picked up another 2-4 victories.

Regardless of the outcome of Nogueira versus Werdum, both men are far distanced from Cain’s current schedule, unless the champion opts to sit on the sidelines until the third quarter of the year. It isn’t likely that Velasquez allows 9-11 months to pass before defending his crown.

So who remains in the hunt, and who presents a realistic threat to the champion?

Unfortunately, there aren’t many who fit the bill.

Frank Mir’s got some fights to win if he hopes to once more challenge for the title. As it is, he’ll be plenty busy with Velasquez’s training partner, Daniel Cormier, whom he’ll meet at UFC on Fox 7 in April.

I don’t think we even need to discuss Cormier’s current standing in the division, given the fact that both Velasquez and Cormier have made it publicly known that they will not be meeting inside the Octagon.

That’s a shame, because with a win over Mir, Cormier will clearly emerge as the most qualified contender in the heavyweight division.

So, who remains in the mix? Roy Nelson and Stefan Struve.

“The Skyscraper” has major momentum on his side, having pieced together four consecutive victories. The problem here is Struve’s questionable durability and the level of opposition the massive 7′ prospect has eliminated as of late.

Pat Barry, Dave Herman, Lavar Johnson and Stipe Miocic are dangerous opponents. They make for great experience builders, but they’re not of the caliber that prepares a man for a bout with the best heavyweight in the world.

Struve needs to eliminate a few highly ranked foes before his name deserves to be thrown in the mix for a title fight.

Nelson has a bout with Cheick Kongo booked for UFC 159, which unfolds in April. If “Big Country” can put Kongo away within the allotted time frame, he’ll ride the momentum produced by three consecutive stoppage victories. He’ll also establish himself as one of two heavyweights (the other being the aforementioned Struve) with an impressive current win-streak.

Is Nelson deserving of a title shot? No, he’s not. But this is one of those tricky situations in which timing and surprising divisional stumbles could open an unexpected door for the fan-friendly belly rubber.

Unless Velasquez intends on taking another lengthy hiatus, Roy Nelson may emerge as the only plausible fight for the champion in the immediate future.

The UFC’s heaviest division looked absolutely stacked just six months ago. Today, it’s a jumbled mess that’s left a quality champion with little in the way of quality contenders. We’ll see how UFC president Dana White and matchmaker Joe Silva handle this sudden conundrum in the months to come.

As it stands, the heavyweight division looks like a bad mystery movie with no fitting conclusion on the horizon.

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UFC 156: Which Fighter Has the Most to Lose?

UFC 156 marks a return to action for the oft-injured featherweight champion, Jose Aldo, who meets former lightweight ace Frankie Edgar in the evening’s main event.Aldo has plenty to lose: A defeat to a first-time 145er, even one as amazing as Edg…

UFC 156 marks a return to action for the oft-injured featherweight champion, Jose Aldo, who meets former lightweight ace Frankie Edgar in the evening’s main event.

Aldo has plenty to lose: A defeat to a first-time 145er, even one as amazing as Edgar, hurts the Brazilian’s overall stock, snatches the belt from his waist and eliminates him from top pound-for-pound consideration.

But despite everything Aldo has to lose Saturday night, two others on the card face a significantly greater fall should they fail to secure victory at UFC 156.

Rashad Evans is one fight away from a potential career godsend. If he can overcome the challenge known as Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, there’s a very real possibility that he migrates south to middleweight, where he’s being eyed as a strong possibility for Anderson Silva’s next title challenger.

I don’t see many ways for Nogueira to emerge victorious in this affair, and many would likely agree. Once a true destroyer of the light heavyweight division, “Minotoro” has lost more than a single step.

Antonio’s visibly slowed quite a bit, and he hasn’t exactly evolved with the sport. “Little Nog”—as fans often refer to him—still plods forward looking to slug it out, and still shows a lack of offensive potency in the wrestling department. These are areas that Evans should be able to exploit handily, as Nog’s weaknesses play to Rashad’s key strengths.

Knowing these things hammers home the fact that a loss to Nogueira this weekend will send Rashad’s stock absolutely plummeting and eliminate him from any discussion to involve Anderson Silva’s name.

And let’s face it, the chance to tangle with the greatest mixed martial artist of his generation is a professional fighter’s dream opportunity.

But Rashad Evans isn’t the only man who stands to see his hopes of reaching the summit spill down the drain with failure this weekend. Alistair Overeem could watch a title shot slip right through his hands should Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva upset the hulking Dutchman.

Overeem’s already stared the UFC title down, only to watch his shot to claim promotional gold slip away in light of a urinalysis that registered some shocking testosterone levels. Another setback this weekend could leave the former Strikeforce boss a few years distanced from a top contender match, let alone an official title shot.

It’s imperative that “The Reem” not only find success at UFC 156, but also pass any drug tests in the buildup and wake of the bout.

If Overeem wins Saturday, and does so in impressive fashion all the while acing the inevitable drug tests, he’s next to challenge current heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez. If he stumbles in any area, it’s back to the drawing board for the multi-sport champion.

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25 Best Fighters Outside the UFC

UFC parent-company Zuffa has made it a practice of purchasing any promotion to hold a noteworthy roster of fighters. Over the years Zuffa’s purchased and collapsed some powerhouse promotions in Pride Fighting Championships and the World Extreme C…

While they don’t appear poised to stop the run of Bellator anytime soon, they’re already eyeing some of the promotion’s top talent.

But as powerful as Zuffa may be, there will always be other existing promotions, and if they aim to exist for any significant period of time, they’ve likely signed a few recognizable names and upper-echelon talents.

Believe it or not, the UFC isn’t host to every elite fighter in the business. Here and there you’ll find a memorable prospect or seasoned veteran of high regard competing in smaller shows. This is a look at 25 of the best combatants still waging war beneath a banner that reads something other than ‘UFC.’

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UFC 158: Keys to Victory for Georges St-Pierre over Nick Diaz

UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre will defend his title against the always-outspoken Nick Diaz on March 16th at UFC 158. The fight will mark St-Pierre’s second bout in four months, while Diaz will be returning from a forced hiatus of approxim…

Diaz was offered the pairing after St-Pierre expressed serious interest in the fight, which prompted Dana White to make the longtime fantasy matchup a reality.

While many feel that Johny Hendricks deserves a shot at St-Pierre after three consecutive wins against top-10 opponents—including two memorable knockouts—Diaz is arguably the more appealing name from a business standpoint.

Diaz has a more well-known career, and his “bad boy” antics and defensive, almost pitiable (I don’t mean that as an insult in the slightest) mindset have rendered him a polarizing figure.

Diaz brings a rugged in-your-face style that relies on forward movement and volume punching, with heavy emphasis on body shots. If he can put St-Pierre against the cage and uncork a few savage combinations, the champ could find himself in some deep waters.

So how does St-Pierre ensure he keeps his shiny belt?

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The Judge Who Scored Guida vs. Hioki 30-27 Is Also Clay’s Facebook ‘Friend’

Ever wonder what an athletic commission considers a conflict of interest?It’s a question running amok in my brain as I type and mull over last weekend’s featherweight bout between Clay Guida and Hatsu Hioki.Guida took home a split decision …

Ever wonder what an athletic commission considers a conflict of interest?

It’s a question running amok in my brain as I type and mull over last weekend’s featherweight bout between Clay Guida and Hatsu Hioki.

Guida took home a split decision nod over Hioki after three tough rounds.

The bout was certainly a closely contested match. But by the 10-point must system in which the UFC abides, it’s relatively easy to understand how Clay Guida exited the cage victorious, despite being out-struck by a tally of 74-40 (according to Fightmetric) and having half of his takedown attempts thwarted.

Clay obtained and secured top position for extended stretches of the fight, and regardless of how active a fighter is or isn’t from his back, the common misconception among uninformed judges is that the man on top is winning the fight by default.

Fair enough, I’m not outraged by the outcome, despite having scored the fight in Hioki’s favor by one point. I can understand why Guida was afforded the win, whether I agree with it or not, and I’m not out to slight Guida or his in-cage efforts.

However, one must wonder: at what point does an athletic commission, or those assigned the task of overseeing a MMA event, examine the deeper relationships between appointed judges and the fighters whose fights they score?

Both Gabriel Sabaitis (the judge who scored the bout a clean sweep, 30-27 in Guida’s favor) and Clay Guida are Illinois representatives. Fair enough, UFC on FOX 6 was hosted by the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. It’s not baffling to know that the Chicago Sports Commission would employ the services of a local judge.

But the relationship between Guida and Sabaitis stretches a bit more. See, Sabaitis and Guida are also “Facebook friends.” Big deal, you ask? Maybe, maybe not.

From a neutral stance, it seems a bit questionable that a man assigned the task of judging two fights on one card would just so happen to draw a bout featuring a hometown favorite. It also seems a bit questionable that no one would question the depth of Sabaitis and Guida’s relationship, given their online status as acquaintances.

Does Gabriel really know Clay? It’s tough to say. For all we know, the two may have never shared any communication other than a “friend accept” in the vast expanse of the interwebs. But if a commission aims to ensure fair judging, it seems as though a hint of research might ensue prior to assigning judges specific tasks.

Questionable situations such as the one we currently eye could easily be avoided with a few Google searches.

Standing here, on the outside looking in, I’m forced to admit that appointing Gabriel Sabaitis as one of three judges set to score Clay Guida’s fight looks a little suspect. Sabaitis’ questionable scoring (again, a reminder that Gabriel was the only judge who seemed to feel Hatsu Hioki didn’t do enough to secure a single round) only raises further question marks and eyebrows.

Did Gabriel give Hatsu a fair shake? Furthermore, did the commission afford Hatsu a fair shake?

I’m not here to accuse anyone of misconduct. Don’t misconstrue this piece. This is about raising awareness in regards to the judging system (and not just in Chicago) worldwide. Fighters invest every ounce of their being in the sport, the preparation for competition, competition itself and every subplot of the assignment (i.e., press, travel, public appearances, etc.) in between. I think they certainly deserve to have an unbiased eye overseeing their work in the cage.

The question now becomes this: did Hatsu Hioki receive three pairs of unbiased eyes to judge his bout with Clay Guida, or only two?

For the record, all information revealed in this article, including the image, are publicly available. If you’ve got a Facebook page, you can view Gabriel’s page publicly, and you can view his friends as well. You’ll spot Clay in the lineup, and if he happens to disappear in the wake of this release, well, you’ve got an attached image that proves the two are FB buddies.

Follow me on Twitter. To my knowledge, neither Clay nor Hatsu and I are “friends.”

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Is There Any Chance Cung Le Can Beat Anderson Silva?

Anderson Silva’s manager Ed Soares recently told Yahoo Sports that when it comes to Silva’s next foe, “The only thing that comes to mind is — and I don’t even know that would be a possible fight — Cung Le. [He’s] coming off of three…

If you’re thinking that sounds preposterous, you’re absolutely correct.

Cung Le isn’t riding a three fight win-streak, he’s picked up just two consecutive W’s inside the octagon. And, while his name does boast some marquee appeal, at 40 years old, Le’s a fading fighter.

Le’s come up short twice in his last five outings—once to Scott Smith and once to Wanderlei Silva—and he was stopped in violent fashion on both occasions.

Among his three victories in the same five fight stretch, only Rich Franklin packs any true star power. Familiar or not, talented or not, neither Patrick Cote or Scott Smith qualify as household names.

In short, Le has virtually zero case for a shot at Silva’s crown. However, to his credit, Cung acknowledges this. He openly admitted to being a bit surprised by Soares’ mention of him as a potential foe for the longtime middleweight champion.

“I didn’t do any campaigning. My name got thrown in the mix and I’m honored, so whatever happens from here is going to be up to Anderson and up to the UFC,” Le stated on the MMA Hour.

While Le’s warrior spirit isn’t likely to lead to him refusing the fight, it certainly sounds as if even he understands that it’s an odd pairing.

Just the same, with the upper echelon of the middleweight division looking a tad murky, anything could happen. A Silva versus Le match likely draws a respectable Pay-Per-View figure, and at the end of the day, Dana White and the UFC aren’t opposed to making money. That alone means there’s a possibility that somehow this fight gets booked.

But, what if it did?

Is Cung Le even capable of turning in a competitive performance against “The Spider?”

Le’s looked markedly improved in his last two bouts. A rocky promotional debut against “The Axe Murderer” at UFC 139 seems to have opened the former San Shou champion’s eyes to the level of work and dedication required to compete among the world’s best.

Le looks fit, powerful, and still rather quick for a man pushing 41. His agility doesn’t seem to be declining too dramatically, and his fight IQ is still intact. In fact, he appears to be a fighter still learning, which is definitely the sign of a man who still holds designs on exerting successful physical showcases; Cung Le isn’t just around to put on fun fights, he’s here to win.

But at 5‘10“, Le enters a hypothetical collision with Silva at an immediate disadvantage. The stocky Californian will be outsized in every way imaginable. Silva holds a near-10 inch reach advantage over Le, stands inches (anywhere from two to five, depending upon which outlet you’re referencing) taller and has already proven big enough to stand toe to toe with some massive light heavyweights without being noticeably outsized.

But size aside, one must wonder, can Le match Silva—technically—in any department?

On paper Cung Le looks like the superior kickboxer. Inside the octagon is a different story. Le fights intelligent, calculated fights; Silva fights unpredictable and moves in almost inhuman fashion. The guy looks like a movie and redefines the term “effective MMA Muay Thai.”

Le is an awesome fighter, but Silva is in a league all his own.

Cung’s one-punch power may be a reliable enough tool to dispose of Rich Franklin, but Silva has very rarely looked susceptible to strikes. He’s as durable as they come, and his ability to roll with offensive attacks tends to keep him out of any serious danger. Couple that durability with some amazing elusive upper-body movement and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which Cung Le puts the champion in a tough spot.

Le doesn’t bring a potent enough wrestling game to leave the champion in a compromising position, and we’ve yet to see the former Strikeforce standout secure a single submission victory in his mixed martial arts career. It isn’t exactly probable that he submits a very capable grappler like Silva.

In short, Le has little outside of a puncher’s chance at dethroning the champion. If these two fought 100 times, Silva likely walks away victorious at least 98 times. Those aren’t what I’d call favorable odds for Cung Le.

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