UFC 153 Predictions: Why Stephan Bonnar Is Not the Man to Beat Anderson Silva

I find myself overcome with a mixture of feelings when I consider the career of Anderson Silva.  Equal parts awe and respect, a hint of fear perhaps, and a general sense of captivation. A magnificent athlete with a polarizing presence in the sport…

I find myself overcome with a mixture of feelings when I consider the career of Anderson Silva.  Equal parts awe and respect, a hint of fear perhaps, and a general sense of captivation.

A magnificent athlete with a polarizing presence in the sport due to his sublime skills and seeming invincibility, Silva has carved a path through the modern MMA era, leaving in his wake an indefatigable legacy of greatness, both in performance, and in statistical unassailability.

He holds numerous records in the UFC. Most consecutive victories (15). Most consecutive title defences (10). Highest striking accuracy (67 percent).

His accomplishments, when put to paper, paint a clear picture of a man whose skill set, physical abilities and mental approach have left him sitting atop of the proverbial heap, not only in his division, but in the sport as a whole.

He is both an artist and an animal, trapped in the same body. He is graceful, efficient, methodical, and to any man standing across the Octagon from him, a big, big problem.

Stephan Bonnar is a different creature entirely. Far more animal than artist, he is a visceral character in the cage.  He swings leather with the abandon of a man who anticipates a return with interest.

He never stops coming forward, even to his own detriment.

And he bleeds. Profusely.

He is a fan favourite, an affable, if not a little kooky media presence, and he has been a mainstay for the UFC since the first season of TUF.

The reality exists, though, in spite of the man’s indomitable warrior spirit:  Stephan Bonnar is not going to defeat Anderson Silva.

When these two combatants meet at UFC 153 in Brazil, we will bear witness to a number of things.

First and most obviously, is the perceivably epic matchup fail.  Anderson is in every way, shape and form, superior to Bonnar. Silva has a record of 32-4, having defeated the best in the business consistently during his tenure in the UFC. 

He has accounted for Rich Franklin and Chael Sonnen twice each, Forrest Griffin, Yushin Okami, Vitor Belfort and Dan Henderson among others. Apart from his first bout with Sonnen, which as we know, he still ended up winning in miraculous fashion, he has dominated.

Bonnar, on the other hand, is 14-7, with most of his marquee victories coming over mid-tier competition. He has defeated Kyle Kingsbury and Krysztof Soszynski, James Irvin (who also lost to Silva at 205) and Keith Jardine. A more impressive way to look at his resume is to cite all the men to whom he has lost.

It goes some length to vindicate a .500 record when you have only ever lost to past or future UFC champions, with one glaring exception. Bonnar has come up short against Lyoto Machida, Forrest Griffin twice, Rashad Evans, Jon Jones, Mark Coleman and the aforementioned Soszynski.

Seeing these two fight each other is anomalous. It should not be happening if one sees access to big-name main-card fights as the right of a successful and deserving fighter.

On paper, Bonnar is so far from this opportunity, it beggars belief; however, it appears his employers are rewarding him not only for his decision to step up and fight the pound-for-pound great, on short notice, with a statistically irrelevant chance at victory, but also for his years of service.

Silva, too, must be credited for taking a fight that has very little potential to enhance his standing, on such short notice. Filling the void left by Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar, these two gentlemen have added an immeasurable element of intrigue and excitement to what is (for an international viewer/fan like myself) an adequate, but not spectacular card.

While admirable, this does not affect Bonnar’s chances at success.

All of the heart, determination, fan support and self-belief in the world can seem uncharacteristically impotent against Silva.

Fighters who have had Bonnar’s measure have fallen to Silva in spectacular fashion. Forrest Griffin was made to look like a rank amateur by the prowess of Silva’s evasive movement, and Bonnar has a far more plodding, predictable style than Griffin, leading one to think he will struggle to effectively move and implement his game-plan, without falling prey to the lethally accurate striking of The Spider.

Also working against Bonnar is his propensity to bleed, and Anderson’s ability to utilise his Muay Thai to cause massive superficial damage to his opponents.

Add to this the fact that Bonnar has not fought in 11 months and was practically retired before his call-up to the big show, and a pretty ominous picture begins to emerge as to his chances.

Silva has fought only once in the same period, but he has been more consistently active against better competition in the last few years.

Bonnar’s recent inactivity and the ensuing ring-rust many are anticipating, coupled with the fact he may well be experiencing the same kind of nerves that caused Forrest Griffin to take Xanax the night before his fight with Silva, again, casts a bleak shadow over any potential chance upset that he may be able to pull out of the bag.

This is not to say he can’t win however, just more than likely (by a factor of, say a million bajillions) that he won’t. Bonnar is a skilled grappler, holds black belts in Taekwondo, BJJ and Karate (Silva has black belts in BJJ, Taekwondo, Judo and a yellow role in Capoeira), and his forward-moving style seems quite innate.

This could hold an advantage given he is, by nature, intent and muscle memory, inclined to press the action. By doing so, similar to Chael Sonnen in his first bout with Silva, he may be able to preclude The Spider from settling into his game plan, and score some offensive damage early with his solid boxing and 80-inch reach.

Alas, Silva’s precedent for success at 205 already quashes much of the hope one may have for Bonnar. He has absolutely smashed his last two opponents in that particular weight bracket, and in terrible news for Bonnar, Silva was quoted as saying he felt faster and more agile at 205, and that is in every sense, a problem for anyone confined to a cage with the man.

A passionate Brazilian crowd baying for the blood of Bonnar (which I’m sure he will oblige them with) may prove to be overwhelming for the American also, but given he had been so actively campaigning for a massive fight to bookend his career, he might yet be prepared for such a thing mentally.

Simply put, Bonnar stands as much chance against Silva as anyone. And if  history has imparted upon us anything, that chance is slim to theoretical. Willpower may yet fall prey to the aura of ninja-like-lethality that Silva carries with him, and I see this fight finishing with Bonnar going out on his shield, swinging hard, with that glint of bloodlust in his eyes, but to no avail.

Bear this in mind, however. No man on this planet is unbeatable, and once upon a time, a Japanese fighter named Daiju Takase, a fighter with a record of 5-7-1 at the time (who had also been beaten by a relatively inexperienced Nate Marquardt three years earlier) slapped a triangle choke on Silva (who was 11-2 at that point) and put him away.

Silva has no doubt become a different fighter since his days in Pride, as evidenced by his dominance and record since, but when the Octagon door closes, and these gentleman warriors face off against each other, anything can happen, and I, for one, hope Stephan Bonnar makes a good showing and does his career proud.

Unfortunately, victory is a mere possibility for Stephan, as the probability just doesn’t exist.

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UFC 153 Predictions: Why Stephan Bonnar Is Not the Man to Beat Anderson Silva

I find myself overcome with a mixture of feelings when I consider the career of Anderson Silva.  Equal parts awe and respect, a hint of fear perhaps, and a general sense of captivation. A magnificent athlete with a polarizing presence in the sport…

I find myself overcome with a mixture of feelings when I consider the career of Anderson Silva.  Equal parts awe and respect, a hint of fear perhaps, and a general sense of captivation.

A magnificent athlete with a polarizing presence in the sport due to his sublime skills and seeming invincibility, Silva has carved a path through the modern MMA era, leaving in his wake an indefatigable legacy of greatness, both in performance, and in statistical unassailability.

He holds numerous records in the UFC. Most consecutive victories (15). Most consecutive title defences (10). Highest striking accuracy (67 percent).

His accomplishments, when put to paper, paint a clear picture of a man whose skill set, physical abilities and mental approach have left him sitting atop of the proverbial heap, not only in his division, but in the sport as a whole.

He is both an artist and an animal, trapped in the same body. He is graceful, efficient, methodical, and to any man standing across the Octagon from him, a big, big problem.

Stephan Bonnar is a different creature entirely. Far more animal than artist, he is a visceral character in the cage.  He swings leather with the abandon of a man who anticipates a return with interest.

He never stops coming forward, even to his own detriment.

And he bleeds. Profusely.

He is a fan favourite, an affable, if not a little kooky media presence, and he has been a mainstay for the UFC since the first season of TUF.

The reality exists, though, in spite of the man’s indomitable warrior spirit:  Stephan Bonnar is not going to defeat Anderson Silva.

When these two combatants meet at UFC 153 in Brazil, we will bear witness to a number of things.

First and most obviously, is the perceivably epic matchup fail.  Anderson is in every way, shape and form, superior to Bonnar. Silva has a record of 32-4, having defeated the best in the business consistently during his tenure in the UFC. 

He has accounted for Rich Franklin and Chael Sonnen twice each, Forrest Griffin, Yushin Okami, Vitor Belfort and Dan Henderson among others. Apart from his first bout with Sonnen, which as we know, he still ended up winning in miraculous fashion, he has dominated.

Bonnar, on the other hand, is 14-7, with most of his marquee victories coming over mid-tier competition. He has defeated Kyle Kingsbury and Krysztof Soszynski, James Irvin (who also lost to Silva at 205) and Keith Jardine. A more impressive way to look at his resume is to cite all the men to whom he has lost.

It goes some length to vindicate a .500 record when you have only ever lost to past or future UFC champions, with one glaring exception. Bonnar has come up short against Lyoto Machida, Forrest Griffin twice, Rashad Evans, Jon Jones, Mark Coleman and the aforementioned Soszynski.

Seeing these two fight each other is anomalous. It should not be happening if one sees access to big-name main-card fights as the right of a successful and deserving fighter.

On paper, Bonnar is so far from this opportunity, it beggars belief; however, it appears his employers are rewarding him not only for his decision to step up and fight the pound-for-pound great, on short notice, with a statistically irrelevant chance at victory, but also for his years of service.

Silva, too, must be credited for taking a fight that has very little potential to enhance his standing, on such short notice. Filling the void left by Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar, these two gentlemen have added an immeasurable element of intrigue and excitement to what is (for an international viewer/fan like myself) an adequate, but not spectacular card.

While admirable, this does not affect Bonnar’s chances at success.

All of the heart, determination, fan support and self-belief in the world can seem uncharacteristically impotent against Silva.

Fighters who have had Bonnar’s measure have fallen to Silva in spectacular fashion. Forrest Griffin was made to look like a rank amateur by the prowess of Silva’s evasive movement, and Bonnar has a far more plodding, predictable style than Griffin, leading one to think he will struggle to effectively move and implement his game-plan, without falling prey to the lethally accurate striking of The Spider.

Also working against Bonnar is his propensity to bleed, and Anderson’s ability to utilise his Muay Thai to cause massive superficial damage to his opponents.

Add to this the fact that Bonnar has not fought in 11 months and was practically retired before his call-up to the big show, and a pretty ominous picture begins to emerge as to his chances.

Silva has fought only once in the same period, but he has been more consistently active against better competition in the last few years.

Bonnar’s recent inactivity and the ensuing ring-rust many are anticipating, coupled with the fact he may well be experiencing the same kind of nerves that caused Forrest Griffin to take Xanax the night before his fight with Silva, again, casts a bleak shadow over any potential chance upset that he may be able to pull out of the bag.

This is not to say he can’t win however, just more than likely (by a factor of, say a million bajillions) that he won’t. Bonnar is a skilled grappler, holds black belts in Taekwondo, BJJ and Karate (Silva has black belts in BJJ, Taekwondo, Judo and a yellow role in Capoeira), and his forward-moving style seems quite innate.

This could hold an advantage given he is, by nature, intent and muscle memory, inclined to press the action. By doing so, similar to Chael Sonnen in his first bout with Silva, he may be able to preclude The Spider from settling into his game plan, and score some offensive damage early with his solid boxing and 80-inch reach.

Alas, Silva’s precedent for success at 205 already quashes much of the hope one may have for Bonnar. He has absolutely smashed his last two opponents in that particular weight bracket, and in terrible news for Bonnar, Silva was quoted as saying he felt faster and more agile at 205, and that is in every sense, a problem for anyone confined to a cage with the man.

A passionate Brazilian crowd baying for the blood of Bonnar (which I’m sure he will oblige them with) may prove to be overwhelming for the American also, but given he had been so actively campaigning for a massive fight to bookend his career, he might yet be prepared for such a thing mentally.

Simply put, Bonnar stands as much chance against Silva as anyone. And if  history has imparted upon us anything, that chance is slim to theoretical. Willpower may yet fall prey to the aura of ninja-like-lethality that Silva carries with him, and I see this fight finishing with Bonnar going out on his shield, swinging hard, with that glint of bloodlust in his eyes, but to no avail.

Bear this in mind, however. No man on this planet is unbeatable, and once upon a time, a Japanese fighter named Daiju Takase, a fighter with a record of 5-7-1 at the time (who had also been beaten by a relatively inexperienced Nate Marquardt three years earlier) slapped a triangle choke on Silva (who was 11-2 at that point) and put him away.

Silva has no doubt become a different fighter since his days in Pride, as evidenced by his dominance and record since, but when the Octagon door closes, and these gentleman warriors face off against each other, anything can happen, and I, for one, hope Stephan Bonnar makes a good showing and does his career proud.

Unfortunately, victory is a mere possibility for Stephan, as the probability just doesn’t exist.

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DaMarques Johnson Cut from UFC Following Loss to Gunnar Nelson

It has been a long, thankless year for DaMarques Johnson. Having lost three consecutive fights against John Maguire, a resurgent Mike Swick and highly touted grappling phenom Gunnar Nelson, Johnson (16-12 MMA, 6-4 UFC) announced Tuesday morning, via hi…

It has been a long, thankless year for DaMarques Johnson.

Having lost three consecutive fights against John Maguire, a resurgent Mike Swick and highly touted grappling phenom Gunnar Nelson, Johnson (16-12 MMA, 6-4 UFC) announced Tuesday morning, via his official Twitter page, that he was no longer a UFC fighter.

Losing three times in a row is generally enough to earn you a pink slip in the UFC, and having been finished in his last three bouts (twice by submission, once by KO), Johnson was most definitely on the chopping block.

Johnson looked uncharacteristically sluggish in his last outing, which he took on short notice, avoiding a penalty for weighing in heavy at 183 pounds.

Johnson, who enjoyed success on Season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter, defeated Ray Elbe, Dean Amasinger and Nick Osipczak to progress to the final, where he was defeated by James Wilks.

An entertaining, if not a little acerbic character during his stint on the show, Johnson was unable to transfer his initial success to his UFC career.

Johnson had not scored back-to-back wins since 2009-10, and he appeared to struggle against midtier competition, having also lost to Matt Riddle, Amir Sadollah and James Wilks in his time in the UFC.

His Octagon wins came over Edgar Garcia and Brad Blackburn, in Submission of the Night and Knockout of the Night performances, and he also notched a victory over Clay Harvison.

Johnson is a technically-sound fighter, and given that he trains under former UFC fighter (and ultimate MMA journeyman), Jeremy Horn, he shouldn’t struggle to get a fight on the regional circuit, should he choose to pursue that avenue.

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UFC’s Pat Barry Confronts and Blasts a Heckler at UFC on FX 5

Never one to shy away from speaking his mind, UFC heavyweight Pat Barry (7-5 MMA, 4-5 UFC) wore his frustrations on his sleeve at last weekend’s UFC on FX 5. Sitting in the front row of the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Barry became visibly …

Never one to shy away from speaking his mind, UFC heavyweight Pat Barry (7-5 MMA, 4-5 UFC) wore his frustrations on his sleeve at last weekend’s UFC on FX 5.

Sitting in the front row of the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Barry became visibly annoyed at the booing and abuse being hurled at Jussier Formiga and John Dodson by one particular fan.

As the booing continued, Barry began to seek out the source, and found a gentleman who, by this point, had begun calling the fighters some, shall we say, uncouth names. Or pussies if we’re going to be factual.

Curious as to how someone could think such a thing of two professional combat athletes, Barry stood up and began to query the gentleman, garnering the approval and applause of the crowd, and requested he repeat himself.  Unwilling to oblige, the fan in question returned to his seat and attempted to wave off the unwanted attention from the fan-favourite heavyweight.

While goading a member of the public into a dispute is not necessarily a positive thing for a UFC fighter to do, Barry later had a discussion with the fan, as he found him in line waiting for an autograph from the very fighter he was voicing his disdain for, flyweight John Dodson.

In the ensuing conversation, according to Barry, and sourced from his video response on his official YouTube.com channel, Barry elucidated his point to the fan, that it’s perverse to question the bravery of athletes from the comfort of a spectator’s chair.

In a sport where fan education, or a lack thereof, can often lead to ground-game-heavy fights and anything that doesn’t approximate a slug-fest being unpopular, it’s refreshing to see an employee of the UFC take a stand in defense of his peers and colleagues.

Here is Barry’s video response: http://youtu.be/_eiuniJ0Zdg

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Fame in the UFC: The Battle Between Hype and Performance

Hype: The currency with which a fighter can purchase a higher profile. The palpable expression of a fan’s affection for their favorite athletes. The closest thing the UFC has to a definable ranking system.MMA is a magnificent sport. As fans, we bear wi…

Hype: The currency with which a fighter can purchase a higher profile. The palpable expression of a fan’s affection for their favorite athletes. The closest thing the UFC has to a definable ranking system.

MMA is a magnificent sport. As fans, we bear witness to modern day gladiators plying their brutal trade and showcasing their skills with the drama and excitement that only physical combat can provide.

We gaze on in awe as physical specimens (and perhaps more impressively, poor physical specimens) utilize that magical combination of desire, intestinal fortitude and skill to triumph on the sport’s largest stage.

And as fans, we invest.

Our time, our money, our passion and our enthusiasm. We retire to dark corners of the Internet to discuss the finer points of the sport with our peers, and in doing so, we create the snowflakes of hype. These snowflakes consolidate themselves into a larger mass by means of blogs and discussion boards, the plethora of fan generated content available online, and by fan-built consensus and dissent.

Eventually, they become a snowball, increasing in size and speed until this churning ball of fan interest and speculation, hope, and in many cases, disdain hits the UFC.

At this point, the market has spoken with its feet and showed that certain fighters elicit a certain degree of attention, and the UFC has a yardstick to measure and gauge the interest in certain potential matchups. Fans speak with their dollars, and the UFC has a tendency to listen.

While its not a great system, its is a system, nonetheless, and it seems to work. It is one that empowers fans and pundits alike to have a contributing role in the formulation of certain matchups, and allows an level of interaction and collaboration between fans and a sporting organization that was, until the UFC, unprecedented.

It has also allowed a formal and definable ranking system to be eschewed in favor of a rather ad hoc system of matchup formulation. Hype has proven to be a more effective means of rank ascension than performance.

There are rankings, this is true, but they generally have absolutely no relevance as to who will fight whom, and leave the decisions about what fights are planned open to extreme interpretation due to the lack of any firm rules regarding entitlement to a fight that will potentially enhance ones standing in the division.

Given that rankings are not issued by the UFC, and are generally consensus ranking formed by leading MMA journalists, it also begs the question: Are these rankings even a legitimate way to form potential matchups, or is this symptomatic of the fans desire to overstate their impact on what fights are put together?

Take, for example, the “Rally for Mark Hunt” that was instigated on Twitter earlier this year. The campaign arose in response to the MMA community’s desire to see an underdog compete for the UFC heavyweight strap in the wake of Alistair Overeem’s suspension, and I was over the moon.

I’m a Mark Hunt fan, he represents my country and it was an awesome moment in fan interaction. The people spoke, and the UFC was forced to listen. I tweeted and re-tweeted hoping the contribution of my opinion would make a difference.

While the UFC did not capitulate to public opinion, they were still hearing what the fans had to say.

The problem was, what the fans had to say, myself included, was in and of itself, pretty ludicrous. I think Mark Hunt would acquit himself well in a match with any current UFC heavyweight. That’s my opinion.

Do I think he was anywhere near as title shot? No. In the landscape of the HW division of the time, it would have been an injustice to any number of fighters who were more deserving of a run at the gold.

This is the problem.

The UFC does a pretty good job of balancing their needs to evolve their fighters profiles with bigger and better matchups when deserved, against the need to create revenue with PPV sales by putting marquee names against each other in big marketable fights. Recently, however, a marquee name can be created on the back of what is essentially factually devoid fan-based-hype.

Take the case of Travis “Hapa” Browne for example. He is a relatively inexperienced fighter, blessed with natural athletic ability and a physically imposing presence that will serve him well in the HW division. He has all the tools to excel, given ample time to develop. He had enjoyed success in the division and was matched up against Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva in his most recent tilt at UFC on FX 5.

He was summarily destroyed, and while his lack of competitiveness is due, to a large degree, to the injury he incurred early in the fight, we now look at a gifted young fighter who has probably fallen further down the ladder than he needs to be.

This is not because his performance was terrible, but because, in the weeks coming up to the fight, he was lauded by fans and media alike as the newest and most potent threat to the heavyweight division, based on little more than his assertion that he was a threat to the title. This kind of rhetoric is not uncommon among fighters, but is definitely not the kind of proof that fans should be relying on to justify their expectations.

Nor is it a standard of account we should be holding this man to. What were were led to believe we were seeing was an incumbent threat to the title, in Browne, taking on an elite heavyweight who had not been performing recently. What we saw was an elite heavy weight dismantle a potential filled middle-of-the-pack HW fighter who may have been pitted in a fight beyond his abilities too soon.

Experience, and a measured performance on Silva’s part, overcame the flashier striking and substantial hype behind Browne.

There will always be a winner and a loser, but the gravitas of these victories and defeats is proportionate to how much we hype these fights, and the fighters.

Lets be fair to these guys. Let their performances do the talking, and let the strength of these performances do the heavy lifting when it comes to enhancing their profiles. At the end of the day, hyping every fighter who gets the opportunity of a main card fight is doing them an injustice, and merely adding the pressure of unnecessary and baseless fan expectation.

Now I don’t want this to be interpreted as a knock on fans, because our passion and our dedication is what makes this sport amazing, even if sometimes we say silly things and make dubious assertions.

We all have high hopes for our favorite fighters and relish the opportunity to show them support. All I ask is that, in the tradition of Mr. David Chappelle, we keeps it real.

Let fighters develop in their own time. The sport will thank us in the long run by creating stars whose profiles were built on excellent in-cage performances, not by mass media construction.

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UFC’s Charlie Brenneman Released Following Loss to Kyle Noke

UFC welterweight prospect Charlie “The Spaniard” Brenneman (15-5 MMA, 4-4 UFC) has been released from his contract on the back of a two-fight losing streak (confirmed via his Twitter account).Brenneman was finished in the first round in both of his mos…

UFC welterweight prospect Charlie “The Spaniard” Brenneman (15-5 MMA, 4-4 UFC) has been released from his contract on the back of a two-fight losing streak (confirmed via his Twitter account).

Brenneman was finished in the first round in both of his most recent fights, first by Erick Silva (rear-naked choke), and then Kyle Noke (TKO) at UFC 152.

Following a meteoric rise through the welterweight division on the back of his victory over the then-surging Rick Story, Brenneman has had a rough time of things losing in two debated TKO stoppages.

Brenneman fell to Anthony Johnson by way of a brutal head kick and, most recently, Kyle Noke, who, in his first tilt at his new home at welterweight, used his range and superior striking to outclass the American. Noke dropped him dramatically, causing the referee to wave off any further action.

Brenneman has struggled to find consistency and the necessary openings to utilize his wrestling, perhaps his greatest strength. As a result, he has not looked to be overly comfortable in his last eight bouts, going 4-4.

He won only two of those fights consecutively. In the perception of many fans, and seemingly his employers, he has not managed to live up to his potential.

Brenneman, however, seems confident (via BloodyElbow.com) he will return to the Octagon. With a few decent wins on the regional circuit, he should be back in the fray in the not-too-distant future.

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