If an Anderson Silva-Nick Diaz bout were taking place in 2010, predicting the winner would be a piece of cake. Silva still looked like a near-unbeatable amalgamation of mixed martial arts, but things have changed.
In 2015, Silva is 39 years old and coming off of a gruesome and potentially mind-altering injury. He’s officially lost two fights in a row, and he’s facing a skilled opponent.
That might make you say, “Diaz is going to win because Silva is old, and he will be rusty and uneven mentally because of the effects of the injury.” Not so fast.
Diaz hasn’t fought in almost two years, and he lost his last two fights. If I had to make a prediction, I’d tentatively take Silva, but there are a lot of variables involved in this one.
Here are the keys to victory for both men.
Silva
Throw Early Leg Kicks
When a man is attempting to come back from such a gruesome injury, the best way for him to gain confidence in the previously injured body part is to use it in the same way he had when he injured himself.
We all saw Silva break his leg on a checked kick against Chris Weidman, but The Spider can’t eliminate that from his repertoire. He needs it for his overall striking portfolio, and he also needs to prove to himself that he’s mentally and physically past the injury.
Get Down to Business
A staple of Silva’s career has been his Octagon showmanship. It’s part of what has made him so charismatic, and it’s also what got him knocked out against Weidman in the first fight.
For this fight, Silva needs to put that aside until he stands victorious over a fallen opponent. There will undoubtedly be a plethora of thoughts rushing through his head Saturday night.
Focus is key, and Silva needs to have all his attention on finishing Diaz. Based on the message he delivered in the interview with Karyn Bryant of MMA H.E.A.T., he seems ready to deliver, although he can’t turn the showman off totally. It’s what makes him so great and likable.
Diaz
Take the Fight to the Ground
Diaz has excellent Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and he’d be wise to use it in this fight. Silva is also well-schooled in the art, but without question, he’s at his best in the stand-up.
On the flip side, Diaz has always had excellent boxing, but if Silva is anywhere close to the form that we’ve come to expect from him, he’ll have the edge on the feet. Silva is quicker, more explosive and able to use feet, knees and fists to do more damage than Diaz.
The Spider has a remarkable 20 knockouts in his career, and if this fight stays standing, that number will probably go to 21.
Keep Your Mouth Running
For the first time in his career, Silva might be vulnerable mentally. Diaz has the perfect personality to take advantage of that. This quote and image from the UFC’s Twitter account is classic Diaz: “Don’t be scared, homie.”
He and his brother Nick are perhaps the most prolific Octagon trash-talkers in the promotion, and Diaz could possibly use that as a means to gain a mental advantage.
When it’s all said and done, striking and/or grappling will be the difference. Still, it doesn’t hurt to get into your opponent’s head.
Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter. I dig boxing and MMA.
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