MMAFix Staff Picks – UFC on Fox 4

Mauricio Rua (-350) vs. Brandon Vera (+290) Ryan Poli: I get the feeling that Vera will use this big opportunity to get a big upset win. However, I’m not predicting a win based on a.

Mauricio Rua (-350) vs. Brandon Vera (+290)
Ryan Poli: I get the feeling that Vera will use this big opportunity to get a big upset win. However, I’m not predicting a win based on a gut feeling. Shogun is the favorite for a reason and from a logical perspective, he should win the fight. Shogun by decision. Winner: Mauricio Rua

Alan Wells: This line is way too close. Shogun should destroy Vera. If he doesn’t, his days as a top contender are over. Simple as that. Normally, I would never bet odds this strongly in favor of one fighter but I actually think there’s value here considering the real talent disparity. Winner: Mauricio Rua

Emily Kapala: The oddsmakers have it right by picking Rua over Vera. He is the highest value pick, and he is going to come out with the win August 4. The winner of this fight could be a lightweight title contender. Winner: Mauricio Rua

Elise Kapala: The fight between Vera and “Shogun” Rua will be an interesting fight. With Shogun once again fighting for a title contendership spot, I think he will utilize his Muay Thai to defeat Vera. Winner: Mauricio Rua

John Rivera: If this fight had happened six years ago then it might be more deserving of main event status. As it is I’m not sure why Bader/Machida isn’t the headliner. Regardless, this should be an entertaining affair. Unless you’ve been living under a f**king rock then you know who Shogun is. His legendary five round brawl with the great Dan Henderson is widely considered throughout the MMA community to be one of the best fights in the history of the sport and if you youtube Infinite Warriors, you’ll see why this is some seriously epic sh*t.

Right so we all know Rua is a badass amongst badasses. Because of this A LOOOOOOTTT people think Shogun will show up and violently molest Brandon Vera much as Thiago Silva did. This is most likely what we’ll see on fight night, but if we’re lucky we’ll see something else….we’ll see a Brandon Vera that we haven’t seen in a while: the one who started his career knocking out heavyweight’s left and right, the one who went three close rounds with all-time great Randy Couture, in short the one that comes to fight.

Both guys are technical strikers with very solid grappling skills, but here’s the kicker. Shogun can take all the damage Vera can dish out and keep coming forward whereas the opposite is simply not true. Vera, while a great fighter and athlete, simply hasn’t shown the kind of aggression and tenacity needed to put a guy like Mauricio Rua away. I see Shogun taking a first round tko win unless by some miracle old Vera shows up to make it a fight in which case I still have Shogun grinding out a decision victory. Winner: Mauricio Rua

MMAFix Staff Pick: Mauricio Rua (5-0)

Lyoto Machida (-330) vs. Ryan Bader (+270)
Ryan Poli: Bader Proved that he is among the elite when he defeated Rampage Jackson. However Machida already defeated a strong wrestler in Randy Couture, and Machida’s performance against Jon Jones was far better than Bader’s. Machida by KO. Winner: Lyoto Machida

Alan Wells: This fight is the opposite of the first in terms of betting value. I don’t think Bader will pull off the upset but he is undervalued here in my opinion. I’m picking Machida to win but if I’m gambling, I’m putting my money on Bader. Winner: Lyoto Machida

Emily Kapala: Once again, the oddsmakers are right on key by picking Machida. He will definitely shine as a potential title contender in the lightweight division. If you’re going to put money on a fight August 4, this would be the fight to do it on. Winner: Lyoto Machida

Elise Kapala: The fight between Machida and Bader is also expected to be an excellent fight. I think it will be a very close fight, seeing as both fighters have excellent striking ability but also defensive game. I think Machida will come out with the victory, though. Winner: Lyoto Machida

John Rivera: Right off the bat I’m thinking…uhhh Lyoto wins by 2nd round SICKASSKARATEDEVASTATION! All one word and yes it is a technical term.

Ok let’s be serious. Ryan Bader is a bad dude for sure. He is STRONG, to say the least. his wrestling pedigree as an NCAA Div. I All-American wrestler speaks for itself, and any opponent he faces needs to be wary of his knockout power. That said, they call Lyoto Machida the Dragon for a reason….and that reason is because he is a monster who will terrorize you and all of your friends right before he MURDERS EVERYONE!!

Ok, let’s try to be serious this time for real…..Machida possesses vastly superior striking and incredible defensive/counter wrestling skills. He has a black belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu, a highly unorthodox style that remains difficult to emulate in training, and trains with arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the history of the UFC, Anderson “The Spider” Silva. With losses in three of his last four fights, Machida will try to make a statement with a finish. Bader will have to be truly impressive to fight off the second round tko blitz that Machida will be looking for. If he does he will have to use repeated take downs and clinch work against the cage to try to make a case for a decision. I see Machida winning either way. Winner: Lyoto Machida

MMAFix Staff Pick: Lyoto Machida (5-0)

‘UFC on FOX 4: Shogun vs. Vera’ Preview and Predictions


(“You know the deal, guys. Whoever puts on the most impressive performance tonight gets the title shot.” [*unzips*] / Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com. For more photos from this set, click here.)

By Ryan Sarr

Who is going to win the “Jon Jones Sweepstakes?” That is the big question heading into the UFC’s fourth venture onto network television tonight. Dana White was so pissed about the boring, lackluster abomination that was the UFC 149 main card, that he decided to award a light-heavyweight title shot to the man who wins the “most impressively” among the four main and co-main event participants. (Yes, even Brandon Vera)  The only problem with this scenario is that all four men — Shogun, Vera, Machida, and Bader — have each been decisively destroyed by Jon Jones in previous fights.

Nonetheless, this fight card is still very intriguing and offers many reasons to tune in.  First of all: It’s free on Fox. Second, all four main card bouts are likely to be exciting, fast-paced battles. It also marks the return of the very talented Mike Swick to the Octagon, who hasn’t fought in over two years. Finally, we have a chance to see a true Cinderella story play out once again as Jamie Varner gets a chance to take another huge step up in his comeback by fighting on a main card on network television. So, join me as I break down the main card for UFC on Fox 4 and offer my predictions as to who will emerge victorious.

Mike Swick (14-4, 9-3 UFC) vs. DaMarques Johnson (15-10, 4-4 UFC)

DaMarques Johnson said in the fight promo, “There’s a 50% chance I’m gonna win this fight, there’s a 100% chance that somebody’s taking a nap,” and Johnson has the track record to back it up: None of his fights in the UFC have gone the distance. The Jeremy Horn protégé has slick submission skills to go along with his heavy hands. We know Johnson will bring a fast-paced, exciting style into the Octagon, and his opponent Mike Swick will almost certainly do the same.


(“You know the deal, guys. Whoever puts on the most impressive performance tonight gets the title shot.” [*unzips*] / Photo courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com. For more photos from this set, click here.)

By Ryan Sarr

Who is going to win the “Jon Jones Sweepstakes?” That is the big question heading into the UFC’s fourth venture onto network television tonight. Dana White was so pissed about the boring, lackluster abomination that was the UFC 149 main card, that he decided to award a light-heavyweight title shot to the man who wins the “most impressively“ among the four main and co-main event participants. (Yes, even Brandon Vera)  The only problem with this scenario is that all four men — Shogun, Vera, Machida, and Bader — have each been decisively destroyed by Jon Jones in previous fights.

Nonetheless, this fight card is still very intriguing and offers many reasons to tune in.  First of all: It’s free on Fox. Second, all four main card bouts are likely to be exciting, fast-paced battles. It also marks the return of the very talented Mike Swick to the Octagon, who hasn’t fought in over two years. Finally, we have a chance to see a true Cinderella story play out once again as Jamie Varner gets a chance to take another huge step up in his comeback by fighting on a main card on network television. So, join me as I break down the main card for UFC on Fox 4 and offer my predictions as to who will emerge victorious.

Mike Swick (14-4, 9-3 UFC) vs. DaMarques Johnson (15-10, 4-4 UFC)

DaMarques Johnson said in the fight promo, “There’s a 50% chance I’m gonna win this fight, there’s a 100% chance that somebody’s taking a nap,” and Johnson has the track record to back it up: None of his fights in the UFC have gone the distance. The Jeremy Horn protégé has slick submission skills to go along with his heavy hands. We know Johnson will bring a fast-paced, exciting style into the Octagon, and his opponent Mike Swick will almost certainly do the same.

Swick hasn’t fought in over two years due to esophageal spasms, a condition which his doctors told him would never allow him to fight again. Well, he proved them wrong and now his comeback fight will be in front of a national television audience. Swick is a UFC veteran, with over 10 fights in the Octagon, but his last two outings have been losses. Like Johnson, Swick loves to stand and trade, and possesses knockout power in both hands. Look for this fight to stay on the feet, with each man exchanging heavy blows in the pocket. The question is: How much ring rust will Swick have? Johnson hasn’t beat anyone of Swick’s stature, but Johnson has fought six times since Swick last fought.

Prediction:  The chances of this fight making it out of the first round are slim. Johnson will definitely come with the thunder, but Swick will be too much on the feet. Swick wins by counter-punching his way to a first round TKO.

Jamie Varner (20-6-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Joe Lauzon (21-7, 8-4 UFC)

10 months ago, Jamie Varner had just lost to our favorite gay for pay Ultimate Fighter Dakota Cochrane, and it was looking like he would never fight under the Zuffa banner again. But, after winning two fights in smaller shows, the UFC called in May and gave Varner a short-notice fight against the undefeated Edson Barboza at UFC 146.  Barboza was coming off his Sportscenter-worthy spinning wheel kick KO of Terry Etim, and it seemed Varner was being fed to the beast. Varner had other plans however, and knocked out Barboza in the first round. So, now Varner gets another huge opportunity in Joe Lauzon, who is a consistent contender in the lightweight division.

The jiu-jitsu specialist Lauzon has 21 victories, with 17 coming by way of submission. This does not bode well for Varner, who has never been knocked out, but has proven susceptible to submissions in the past, losing in this manner to Shane Roller, Hermes Franca, and Ben Henderson.  Lauzon is coming off a first round KO loss to Anthony Pettis, and will no doubt be looking to avoid Varner’s heavy hands and drag this fight to the ground. If Lauzon can take Varner down, a choke or armbar will be soon to follow, but if Varner can keep this fight standing, he could pull the upset and put himself “in the mix” in the UFC’s 155lb division.

Prediction: While the Cinderella story of Jamie Varner is enticing, look for that story to have a sour ending Saturday night. Lauzon will not give Varner the chance to knock him out, and Lauzon will win by first-round armbar.

Lyoto Machida (17-3, 9-3 UFC) vs. Ryan Bader (14-2, 7-2 UFC)

Of all the men to fight Jon Jones, Lyoto Machida seemed to have to most success, frustrating Jones in the first round of their fight with his unorthodox striking and exceptional defensive skills. But, that success was short-lived as Jones choked Machida unconscious and dropped his lifeless body on the mat in the second round. Now Machida gets a chance to rematch Jones if he can impressively defeat Ryan Bader. Bader, on the other hand, is riding a two-fight win streak following his shocking loss to Tito Ortiz last summer. In his last fight, Bader defeated perennial contender Rampage Jackson, though Jackson came in overweight and undermotivated.

In this fight with Machida, Bader needs to use his excellent wrestling skills to put Machida on his back where he is more vulnerable to attack, but as many fighters have found out, that can be very difficult to do. Machida’s unorthodox striking and karate skills are difficult to defend standing up, and with Sensei Seagal in your corner, you never know when a front kick might be unleashed.  Bader does have an outside chance of landing a big punch ala Shogun Rua, but the longer the fight stays on the feet, the more it favors the Dragon. The wrinkle in this fight, though, is the fact that both men are vying for that title shot, so we may see Machida be much more aggressive than usual, which could play into Bader’s favor if Machida was to open himself up to counter-strikes. Either way, this should be a very exciting fight between two contrasting styles.

Prediction:  Bader will quickly realize he is unable to take Machida down, and will be looking to end it with big punches. This will leave Machida many openings to counter, which he will not miss. Machida floors Bader with punches and finishes the job with a second round choke.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (20-6, 4-4 UFC) vs. Brandon Vera (12-5, 8-5 UFC)

If you find it quite odd that Brandon Vera is headlining a network television UFC card with a chance for a title shot if he wins, you are not alone. Once considered the future of the UFC heavyweight division, Vera’s career has been consistently mediocre since 2007.  After stunning Frank Mir at UFC 65 in 2006, Vera lost his next two fights, dropped to light heavyweight, and then lost to Keith Jardine. Vera got his chance against Jones two years ago, but Jon Jones broke his face (literally) with a devastating elbow that was tough to even watch. Now after being released and subsequently re-signed by the UFC, Vera gets to face Mauricio Rua, who many consider the number three light-heavyweight in the world.

Shogun, who is coming off his fight of the year loss to Dan Henderson, is itching for another crack at Jon Jones. Shogun claims he wasn’t 100% in the Jones fight, and wants another shot at the champ. But first, he has to deal with Vera. Even though Vera’s record is pretty terrible as of late, he does possess the skills of an elite fighter. Unfortunately, the things Vera does well, like leg kicks and clinch striking, Shogun seems to do a little better. Also, Shogun has proven very difficult to finish when 100%, and his penchant for violence can lead to an early night for his opponents. Look for Shogun to be very aggressive early in this fight, doing all he can to punish Vera with leg kicks and big punches. If Vera can survive the early onslaught, his chances of winning improve significantly, as Shogun’s cardio has been suspect in the past, and you never know how conditioned he will be for a fight. Nonetheless, this should be an exciting stand-up war as both men want that title shot and rematch with Jon Jones.

Prediction: Shogun has proven he’s an elite light-heavyweight, Vera has not. Shogun will simply out-class Vera early, leaving “The Truth” scrambling and searching for answers. Shogun wins by second round TKO, leaving Vera’s face a bloody mess.

Extra prediction: With Machida and Shogun both winning “impressively,” Dana decides to have these two fight to determine who will face Jonny Bones for the title.

UFC on Fox 4: Mauricio Rua Will Bounce Back and Defeat Brandon Vera

UFC on Fox 4’s main event is Mauricio Rua’s to lose.The 30-year-old Brazilian MMA fighter will face off against Brandon Vera on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on Fox. If he isn’t the last man standing, it’d be a shocker. Rua is the more …

UFC on Fox 4’s main event is Mauricio Rua’s to lose.

The 30-year-old Brazilian MMA fighter will face off against Brandon Vera on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on Fox. If he isn’t the last man standing, it’d be a shocker. Rua is the more talented fighter, and with a title shot on the line, he has more to fight for.

John Morgan of MMAjunkie.com reported that Rua talked about how the importance of a victory vs. Vera is amplified by the fact that a belt could be within his reach. He said:

I prefer to look at it from a different perspective. I don’t look at it as any kind of pressure but as a way to have more motivation for the fight next Saturday. It doesn’t matter. The belt is a result of a good job, good work. I’m now focused on the fight of next Saturday. Then I’m going to start to think about the future. Right now, all that matters is Saturday’s fight.

Since losing his light heavyweight championship to Jon Jones, Rua has knocked out Forrest Griffin in the first round and lost in the Fight of the Year to Dan Henderson.

According to Kevin Iole of Yahoo! Sports, UFC president Dana White said of his match against Henderson: “[Rua‘s] last fight with Dan Henderson was one of the sickest fights I’ve ever seen in my life.”

That sounds like a fan to me.

With only one more win likely standing in between Rua and a shot at a title, he isn’t losing—especially to Vera.

In the American’s last four fights, he was defeated by unanimous decision against Randy Couture, knocked out in the first round by Jones, dealt a loss by unanimous decision again vs. Thiago Silva (until Silva attempted to cheat on his urine test) and beat Eliot Marshall.

Marshall, Vera’s only victory since three summers ago, isn’t anything special with a 10-4 career record against other mediocre fighters.

The 34-year-old Vera’s downslide will continue on Saturday.

 

David Daniels is a featured columnist at Bleacher Report and a syndicated writer.


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UFC on Fox 4: Could the Rua-Vera or Machida-Bader Winner Face Gustafsson Next?

As Shogun Rua, Brandon Vera, Lyoto Machida and Ryan Bader go into battle this Saturday, many fans and members of the media will ponder where exactly the four warriors will go when it’s all over.Depending on who wins most impressively, the Rua versus Ve…

As Shogun Rua, Brandon Vera, Lyoto Machida and Ryan Bader go into battle this Saturday, many fans and members of the media will ponder where exactly the four warriors will go when it’s all over.

Depending on who wins most impressively, the Rua versus Vera winner or the Machida versus Bader winner will earn a No. 1 contender spot to face light heavyweight champion Jon Jones.

But what of the winner who is not chosen? Could there be a constellation prize to earn them the next No. 1 contender position? How about Alexander Gustafsson, the big kid without an elite name.

UFC president Dan White has recently told publications that Gustafsson is in for a “big fight.” Could White have been coy about who the opponent would be because this Saturday will have the answer?

If Jones, the champion, will get the most impressive of the two winners, then it only makes sense that Gustafsson would be tested against the less-impressive winner.

A Jones versus Gustafsson match has been billed as being the last light heavyweight fight that could have some intrigue, but Gustafsson is still too unproven to be put in with a beast such as Jones.

If Gustafsson could pass the test of the winner of either Rua-Vera or Machida-Bader, he most certainly will have convinced a good deal of skeptics that he is ready to battle Jones.

 

For more MMA and other sports news and analysis, follow me on Twitter @justindavidtate.

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UFC on FOX 4: Does Brandon Vera Really Have a Shot at Beating Shogun Rua?

When UFC President Dana White recently announced that the winner of Saturday night’s main event bout may be in line for a title, fans and analysts alike were left scratching their heads—mostly at the possibility that Brandon Vera may get the nod….

When UFC President Dana White recently announced that the winner of Saturday night’s main event bout may be in line for a title, fans and analysts alike were left scratching their heads—mostly at the possibility that Brandon Vera may get the nod.

Vera, who was once one of the UFC’s biggest prospects, has only won one fight since 2009 and is the heavy underdog against former champ Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. While anything can happen in MMA, the chances of Vera coming out victorious at UFC on FOX 4 are slim.

“The Truth” has had trouble in the past with high level strikers and is severely mismatched against Rua standing up.

Prior to his recent win over Eliot Marshall, Vera was soundly beaten down by Muay Thai specialist Thiago Silva at UFC 125 and would have been cut by the promotion had Silva not falsified his urine sample. 

Even before that bout Vera was completely dominated by the current champ Jon Jones, another telling sign that “the Truth” just can’t hang with the upper echelon of the division.

Rua, a Top Five 205-pounder, is one of the most dangerous strikers in the division and will likely overwhelm Vera with his powerful kicks and punches. Vera’s only real shot at beating Rua is if he takes the fight to the ground, an unlikely feat due to “the Truth’s” underwhelming ground skills. 

And with this fight most likely staying standing, Vera really doesn’t stand a chance. Unless Rua comes into this bout out of shape—a very unlikely occurrence due to the possible title shot for the winner—it will take a miracle for Vera to get the win.

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UFC on FOX: Why Shogun Rua Will Crush Brandon Vera

UFC on FOX is a big event, hence increased coverage. In this case, one of the assignments was why Shogun Rua will crush Brandon Vera at Staples Center in Los Angeles tomorrow night. Usually, such assignments lend themselves to slideshows because there …

UFC on FOX is a big event, hence increased coverage.

In this case, one of the assignments was why Shogun Rua will crush Brandon Vera at Staples Center in Los Angeles tomorrow night. Usually, such assignments lend themselves to slideshows because there are a host of reasons to argue why one guy will beat another—or vice versa.

But you know what? Not this time.

The reason is pretty simple: Brandon Vera isn’t in Shogun’s league.

He’s barely in Elliott Marshall’s league actually.

He shouldn’t be in the UFC.

He surely doesn’t deserve this chance he’s getting; marketing efforts and the silver tongue of Dana White be damned.

And that’s why an elite mixed martial artist, a former champion in multiple organizations coming off a Fight of the Year against the current top contender (like Rua) is going to demolish him.

The fact is that Vera can strike a little bit. But this isn’t a Thai boxing, and even if it was, he’s probably not on Shogun’s level. Plus, if Dan Henderson isn’t putting Rua away, Vera sure isn’t. They could give him a bat and it wouldn’t make any difference.

And that’s his best chance at victory.

He’s a serviceable grappler, but Rua has tight jiu-jitsu that people rarely see because he loves to slug it out so much. It’s, at best, a wash. At worst, it’s a place Vera absolutely doesn’t want to contest the fight.

Then again, is there any surprise that a guy not in the Top 30 of any sensible ranking in the universe has nothing on paper for a consensus Top 5 guy and likely one of the best pure martial artists in the division?

No.

Look, call this fight what you want. The chance of a lifetime. A real-life Rocky moment. An effort by the UFC to put an exciting main event on FOX. Whatever.

Realistically, it’s a joke as much as anything.

Brandon Vera hasn’t won a name fight since 2006 against a Frank Mir that had recently almost died in a motorcycle accident. He did nothing to earn this, he was basically just a warm body that could weigh 205 lbs when the UFC needed him to. That’s likely to be reflected in the outcome on Saturday night.

So why is Shogun Rua going to demolish Brandon Vera? Because he’s one of the best in the world, and he’s going into the cage to fight a guy who once needed the judges to confirm he’d bested Reese Andy.

That says it all.

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