Mauricio Rua vs. Brandon Vera
The headlining fight for UFC on Fox 4 is one of the stranger UFC main events in recent memory. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is one of the more inconsistent fighters on the UFC roster. He has a 4-4 record in the UFC but one of those wins was over Lyoto Machida for the light heavyweight title. He is an MMA veteran and was one of the better pound for pound fighters in the world earlier in his career but has not been able to maintain that level of performance with any regularity since coming to the UFC. But the really strange part about this main event is his opponent. Putting Brandon Vera in the main event of a nationally televised card is questionable at best. But following that questionable decision by announcing that the fight will be to determine who gets the next title shot is simply absurd. Thankfully, the UFC has backed off that announcement and instead stated that whoever among Vera, Rua, Ryan Bader and Lyoto Machida puts on the more impressive performance will receive the title shot. But even that seems a little silly given that current champion Jon Jones has already destroyed all four of these men within the last two and a half years.
Rua comes into this fight looking to get another chance to at the title he held briefly in 2010 and early 2011. His biggest asset is his muay thai, which he perfected in the early days of global MMA at the famous Chutebox academy in Brazil. His biggest liability is his cardio, which has been suspect in several fights over the past few years. Fortunately, he’s basically facing a lesser version of himself in this fight. Vera is also mainly a muay thai practitioner so this fight should take place on the feet. If Rua enters the cage in decent shape he’ll be able to handle Vera fairly easily. Vera will be in the best shape of his life as he is viewing this as his best opportunity to fight for a title. Once a vaunted prospect at heavyweight, Vera has proven to be a middling light heavyweight and has only a victory over Eliot Marshall to show for his last four UFC appearances. Even he must know he doesn’t deserve to be mentioned in the title picture but if he can somehow land a Hail Mary knee, he might earn the chance to get beat up by Jon Jones again.
Rua is the favorite coming into the fight at -350 with Bader at +290 and this is a perfect example of what is wrong with the oddsmakers who set the lines for MMA. No rational explanation exists to justify why the odds for this fight are basically the same as the odds for the fight between Ryan Bader and Lyoto Machida. Bader is far more likely to upset Machida than Vera is to upset Rua. But for some reason, the odds say those two outcomes are equally likely. Regardless, this fight has an air of inevitability around it, which is unfortunate for a main event on an important card like this. Both men are muay thai artists but Vera is not on the same level of Rua. If Rua enters the cage in fighting shape, he should be able to finish Vera. If he enters the cage in decent shape, he should be able to win a decision. The only way this fight ends with Vera getting his hand raised is if Rua shows up out of shape or if Vera lands a miracle.
Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader
On a card headlined by an egregious mismatch, the second-billed fight between Ryan Bader and Lyoto Machida will be the most anticipated contest of the night for most MMA fans. Machida is a former champion looking to get back on track after following a sixteen fight win streak to open his career with a loss in three of his last four fights. One of those losses was a close decision to Quentin Jackson that many scored in favor of Machida but the other two were decisive losses to Mauricio Rua and Jon Jones in championship bouts. Bader’s situation is somewhat similar in that he followed a twelve fight winning streak to open his career by losing back to back fights to Jon Jones and Tito Ortiz before bouncing back with consecutive victories over Jason Brilz and Quentin Jackson. An impressive performance by either fighter could earn a rematch with champion Jon Jones.
Machida is one of the most interesting fighters in any weight class. He employs a unique striking style grounded in traditional martial arts. He attacks from unusual angles with unusual strikes and often hurts his opponents because they don’t see his strikes coming. He doesn’t throw with explosive power but instead does his damage by landing a varied but accurate array of punches, kicks and knees that keep his opposition off balance. Because most of his fights take place in the standing position, he has not had much opportunity to display his ground game. However, he should not be underestimated on the mat as he has some of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in the light heavyweight division. His defensive wrestling is solid and because of that, he rarely ends up on his back but if he does, he is still a threat. Against a wrestleboxer like Bader, expect Machida to keep the fight standing and try to assert an advantage on the feet. He will likely look to avoid Bader’s power while picking him apart from distance until he can land something clean enough to hurt him. But if he doesn’t, he’ll be content to use his excellent movement and footwork to control the pace of the fight and earn a decision victory on points.
If Machida is exceptionally unorthodox, Bader is exceptionally orthodox. He came to the sport from the wrestling world having competed at a high level in college. Since coming to the UFC, he has added an excellent boxing game to compliment his wrestling. His boxing is highlighted by dangerous one punch knockout power in both of his hands. If he lands cleanly, he can finish any fight in an instant. In this fight, he’ll have the wrestling advantage and will need to use that to keep Machida guessing. The more he changes levels and forces Machida to think about defending takedowns the better his chances of winning will be. Machida has solid defensive wrestling so Bader may not be able to get him down and keep him down often but he needs to mix in takedowns and try to keep this fight on the inside as much as possible. He’ll need to find ways to close the distance to land his punching combinations as Machida will undoubtedly look to use his movement to stay on the outside. If Bader can find his way inside and make this an ugly fight with lots of pummeling for position against the cage and battling for takedowns, he could grind his way to a decision. And of course, if he finds Machida’s chin cleanly with a punch, he might not only win the fight but also earn his first shot at a UFC belt.
Machida enters this fight as the heavy favorite at -330 with Bader coming in at +270. Machida does have the advantage in every area other than wrestling but that doesn’t mean this fight’s outcome is predetermined. Bader’s hands can end any fight and he has the quickness to catch Machida. He also has the wrestling to force Machida against the cage and control him from there. But the more likely outcome of this fight will see Machida using his movement to keep Bader at a distance and pick him apart from there.
