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UFC 150 Pre-Fight Analysis

Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar Because of Frankie Edgar’s willingness to give immediate rematches to B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard, he gets one against Ben Henderson despite the long list of potential opponents waiting for.

Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar

Because of Frankie Edgar’s willingness to give immediate rematches to B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard, he gets one against Ben Henderson despite the long list of potential opponents waiting for a title shot. But the first fight was entertaining enough that most fans are willing to tolerate the rest of the division being held hostage so that Edgar can get a second chance at Henderson.

We know who both of these fighters are at this point in their careers and the outcome of this fight will be determined solely on gameplan and execution. Neither fighter is significantly better than the other in any area and the key in fights like this is finding a way to create openings to score. This fight represents the future of MMA as two fighters who have high level skill sets in all areas fight for slight advantages through five close rounds. The only significant advantage gained by either fighter in the first fight was when Henderson landed an upkick at the end of the third round, which seems unlikely to be repeated. Both fighters have excellent striking with Edgar probably having a slight advantage in the boxing but Henderson having a slight advantage in the kicking game. Henderson also has the reach advantage but keeping Edgar on the outside has proved nearly impossible. Both are excellent wrestlers and frequently change levels to keep their opponents off balance. Once on the mat, both are capable of doing damage with ground and pound. But both are also excellent at getting back to their feet and neither fighter was able to maintain any significant ground control in the first fight.

This fight will likely play out similarly to the first fight with both fighters happy to engage on the feet but looking to mix in takedowns when the opportunity presents itself. Henderson proved to have a slight advantage in most positions in the first fight and one would expect that pattern to continue in this fight. Because of that, he comes in as a solid favorite at -210 with Edgar at +175. However, Henderson in no way dominated the first fight so a win for Edgar would not be a surprise. The first fight was won because Henderson took advantage of of a few small openings to outscore Edgar. If Edgar can tighten up those minor mistakes and instead create a few small openings of his own in this fight, he could easily reverse the outcome and regain his title. Whatever the outcome, this fight will be back and forth. Both fighters will win rounds and both will be successful at different points in the fight. The key will be whose execution is tighter and who was able to learn the most from the first fight. Henderson deserves to be the favorite but Edgar could easily walk away the champion. And if he does, the lightweight division will be even more convoluted than it already is.

Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard

If you’re an MMA fan, you’re excited about this fight. Donald Cerrone and Melvin Guillard are two of the most exciting fighters in the sport and only a glitch in the fabric of the universe could extinguish the fireworks these two are almost certain to light from the moment this fight begins.

Cerrone’s only loss since coming to the UFC was against Nate Diaz who is currently awaiting the winner of the headlining lightweight title fight between Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson. He followed that loss with a dominant decision victory over Jeremy Stephens. Cerrone was never challenged in that fight and appeared to be sparring with Stephens by the third round. He destroyed Stephens leg with kicks and seemed to finish every combination with a baseball bat to Stephens’ thigh. He’ll be able to use the same strategy against Guillard who will be at a similar reach disadvantage and is also not a threat to take Cerrone to the mat. Cerrone has a clear grappling advantage in this fight and Greg Jackson will certainly be imploring his fighter to put Guillard on his back and work for a submission. Whether or not Cerrone listens will likely depend on whether or not he feels threatened by Guillard’s power.

Guillard was on the brink of a title shot before losing back to back fights via first round submission to Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller. And his performance last month against Fabricio Camoes was not impressive. He earned a bizarre unanimous decision victory with all three judges scoring the fight 30-27 despite the fact that Camoes clearly won the second round and the third round was incredibly close. Regardless, he will look to build on whatever momentum he gained from that fight in this fight against Cerrone. Guillard’s game is largely based on the power in his hands. If he finds his opponent’s chin, he usually wins but if he doesn’t, he struggles. He will be at a significant reach disadvantage in this fight and will need to use speed and movement to find his way inside and land combinations. He is capable of doing it but it will require a level of execution he hasn’t shown since leaving Jackson MMA for the Blackzillions.

Cerrone comes in as a significant favorite at -350 with Guillard getting +290. This fight will likely play out similarly to Cerrone’s previous fight against Jeremy Stephens. He will use his reach to keep Guillard at distance and pick him apart with combinations that end with destructive leg kicks. If Guillard has success closing the distance, look for Cerrone to take him down and work his submission game. And if Cerrone is only interested in winning, that is the more intelligent strategy. But he’s never been interested in simply winning the fight so look for him to make it a kickboxing match unless he feels threatened. But either way, this is likely to be a great lead in for the main event.

TUF 15 Finale – Post Fight Analysis

The main event at the Ultimate Fighter 15 finale resulted in an upset as Martin Kampann finished Jake Ellenberger with a second round TKO after landing a short counter right hand and following up with knee strikes. In typical Kampmann style, he was knocked down by a huge Ellenberger right hand in the first round but managed to survive a difficult spot to come back and earn the victory. Most of Kampmann’s fights end with both competitors wearing the evidence of a back and forth striking battle and last night’s installment was no different. The opening round of the fight started with both fighters wary of the other’s dangerous striking. Ellenberger landed the right hand half way through the round and pounced on Kapmann in an attempt to end the fight. Kampmann was aware enough to defend against the ground and pound barrage that ensued forcing Ellenberger to slow down to avoid burning himself out. Kampmann was more aggressive to begin the second round and started to hurt Ellenberger with counter punches. A quick counter right hand that was almost imperceptible sent Ellenberger stumbling toward the cage and Kampmann moved forward patiently to finish the fight. He landed two big knees that dropped his opponent and would have continued his attack on the ground had the fight not been stopped. Initially, the stoppage seemed quick but Ellenberger wasn’t upset with it and the replay showed that he was not in a defensive position. For Ellenberger, this is a step back after years of climbing the welterweight ladder. With losses to current interim 170 pound champion Carlos Condit and Kampmann, he will have to put together a few victories in a row to get back into the title picture. For Kampmann, he has taken one step closer to a title fight. The most likely fight after last night’s results seems to be a contender fight with Johnny Hendricks who recently defeated Josh Koscheck.

Charles Oliveira earned his second consecutive victory at 145 pounds when Jonathan Brookins tapped to a second round guillotine choke. Oliveira was clearly the better fighter throughout the fight with Brookins only gaining an advantage when he was briefly able to draw Oliveira into wild brawling exchanges. For most of the fight, Oliveira stayed on the outside landing punches and leg kicks while occasionally closing the distance with combinations. Oliviera put Brookins on his back in the second round and took advantage of his opponent’s attempt to stand up by latching on to a guillotine choke and submitting Brookins. We may have seen Brookins’ ceiling in the fight and while he can provide interesting fights going forward, he will probably never be a title contender. Expect to see him get a more winnable fight in his next cage appearance as the UFC looks to protect its former Ultimate Fighter winner. For Oliviera, this was one more step toward what looks to be an inevitable rise to the upper echelon of the featherweight division. The question for the UFC is how fast to move him along because if they put him in with a top competitor too quickly, his relative inexperience at age twenty two could lead to a loss. However, he has established that mid tier fighters will not provide any competition so feeding him two or three more easy fights may not be the best decision either.

In the other non TUF related fight on the card, Max Holloway dominated Pat Schilling. At just twenty years old, Holloway was impressive and his development over the next few years will be interesting to watch. After being outclassed by Dustin Poirier in his first UFC fight, Holloway was able to display his full arsenal against Schilling. He brutalized Shilling’s body with punches that left his opponnent barely able to get back to a standing position by the end of the fight. Holloway showed excellent poise in following his gameplan, which was clearly not to engage with Schilling on the ground and keep the fight on the feet. The only time he was in any danger was when Schilling latched on to a kneebar at the end of the first round. From that point, Holloway refused to go to the ground even after dropping Schilling with punches. He made his opponent stand up and continued his assault on the feet. The only way he could have been more impressive was to finish the fight but considering his age and striking acumen, Holloway is on the right track toward becoming a factor in the 145 pound division.

‘The Ultimate Fighter: Live’ Aftermath: Mike Chiesa Defeats Al Iaquinta, and the Odds

“Anyone *else* want to punch me in the face?!?” (Photo: Louie Abigail/FightBulletin.net)

Still in the wake of last week’s heavyweight rumbles, Friday’s ‘The Ultimate Fighter: Live’ Finale drew little hype. It could be because it was sandwiched in the middle of a busy schedule, or because it’s the closer to the least-watched season of the franchise thus far. Either way, it was a night of action worthy of your eyeballs, particularly considering the pricetag.

Jake Ellenberger wasted little time in bringing the hurt to his opponent. Ellenberger swarmed Martin Kampmann, a notoriously slow starter, with a barrage of heavy hands right out of the gate, sending the Dane crashing to his back against the cage. “The Juggernaut” followed him to the ground, unloading with heavy ground and pound in search of the shot that would turn Kampmann’s lights out. The death blow wouldn’t come, and if Kampmann prayed for a moment’s rest the gods shined upon him with nearly four minutes of a protracted ground battle that allowed him to shake out the cobwebs and regain his composure.

“Anyone *else* want to punch me in the face?!?” (Photo: Louie Abigail/FightBulletin.net)

“The Hitman” briefly took control of round two, connecting with a right hand that backed Ellenberger up against the cage. Kampmann pursued and got off a few shots before the ‘King of the Jakes‘ returned fire, again unleashing a torrent of heavy hands that had Kampmann in trouble. True to form, ‘The Hitman’ weathered the storm and connected with a short right to the top of the head that had Ellenberger doing the fish dance across the cage. Kampmann tied him up in a thai clinch and delivered three targeted knees to the face that dropped the ‘Berg to the canvas where referee Steve Mazagatti quickly—very quickly—stepped in to end the bout. The TKO stoppage broke Elleberger’s six-fight win streak and earned Kampmann one of the evening’s $40k Knockout of the Night bonuses. It also likely earns him a dance with Johnny Hendricks in a number-one contender bout, whatever those are worth these days.

In the evening’s titular bout, Team Faber products Mike Chiesa and Al Iaquinta squared off for the most coveted piece of glass in MMA. Iaquinta went on the attack early on. His aggressive standup had Chiesa covering up and backing away, and his takedown defense thwarted his former teammate’s early attempts to bring the fight to the ground. But a fruitless single leg or two were not enough to break the spirit of Chiesa, who bravely marched on through the grueling 13-week TUF trials after losing his father early in the season. As Iaquinta waded in winging punches, “Maverick” countered and took his back, sinking in his hooks and dragging him to the canvas. Chiesa tirelessly worked for the rear naked choke, alternating from one arm to another until one finally sunk below Iaquinta’s chin. The choke was in deep, and Iaquinta fought it off until going to sleep. In a time when ‘feel good’ stories are being forced and manufactured, even the most jaded of us have to feel good for Mike Chiesa. Along with his plaque, he’s won the infamous ‘six-figure contract’, a sponsorship from TapouT, the $40k ‘Submission of the Night’ bonus and a brand new hog.

Speaking of TUF champs, season 12 kingpin Jonathan Brookins returned to the cage to face the dynamic Charles Oliveira. Unfortunately, Brookins still looks ill-equipped to compete in the striking portion of an MMA bout. With a high chin and low hands, he took the worst of the exchanges, including the flying knee he ate before body-locking Oliveira and slamming him to the mat. ‘Do Bronx’ was not on his back long, though, and he confidently resumed battering Brookins on his feet. Brookins did put together a few combos in the second frame, even drawing a bit of blood from Oliveira’s forehead, but he also broke the cardinal rule of bringing slaps to a fist fight (no offense, El Guapo). Caught in a standing guillotine, Oliveira tried to slam his way free only to wind up in Brookins’ guard, but the Brazilian worked his way out of the sub. After delivering a pair of hard elbows, Oliveira exited his opponent’s guard and secured a modified guillotine of his own. Brookins would tap to the choke, reducing my hopes of witnessing a beautiful lateral drop to zero.

Earlier in the evening, youngster Max Holloway showed off an impressive striking game in a lopsided decision victory over Pat Schilling. Holloway’s clinic included flying knees, crippling body punches, even an attempt at a jazzed-up Showtime Kick—basically everything but a shred of killer instinct. Holloway left Schilling defenseless and barely able to ease himself off the canvas throughout the bout, but at no point did he move in for the coup de gras. Looking superb on your feet is one thing, but when you’re standing over a wounded animal the only humane thing to do is put him out of his misery. As his bloody piss circles the toilet this morning, I’m sure even Schilling wishes Holloway had pulled the trigger.

Justin Lawrence kicked off the action, and John Cofer’s head, in the broadcast’s opening bout. Things looked good for Cofer early on as he scored a short-lived takedown and a big left hand that momentarily staggered Lawrence, but ‘TUF: Live’s’ first draft pick was far from flustered. Cofer was game to trade on his feet, though he found himself on the bruised end of the exchanges. As round two drew to a close, the wrestler grabbed Lawrence from behind and took him for a ride, suplexing him to the ground. Lawrence escaped Cofer’s back control and ended the round with a little ground and pound. The third frame was short and sweet, for “The American Kid” at least. As Cofer backpeddled from an exchange Lawrence landed a perfectly timed right high kick to the jaw that had Cofer doing “The Captain” as he careened toward the ground. Both men picked up the $40 g’s for the “Fight of the Night”, while Lawrence’s thunder foot scored him the night’s second KOTN bonus.

– @chriscolemon

FULL RESULTS: (via MMAWeekly.com)

Main Card (on FX):
-Martin Kampmann def. Jake Ellenberger by KO (Knees) at 1:40, R2
-Michael Chiesa def. Al Iaquinta by Submission (Rear Naked Choke) at 2:37, R1
-Charles Oliveira def. Johnathan Brookins by Submission (Guillotine Choke) at 2:42, R2
-Max Holloway def. Pat Schilling by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27), R3
-Justin Lawrence def. John Cofer by KO (Kick) at 0:19, R3

Preliminary Card (on Fuel TV):
– Daron Cruickshank def. Chris Tickle by Unanimous Decision (29-27, 29-27, 29-27), R3
-Myles Jury def. Chris Saunders by Submission (Guillotine Choke) at 4:03, R1
-Sam Sicilia def. Cristiano Marcello by TKO (Strikes) at 2:53, R2
-Joe Proctor def. Jeremy Larsen by TKO (Strikes) at 1:59, R1

Preliminary Card (on Facebook):
-Erik Perez def. John Albert by Verbal Submission (Armbar) at 4:18, R1

‘UFC 143: Dias vs Condit’ Aftermath Part II– A Cup Half Empty

Two kicks + two mangled testes = two points? (Photo: UFC.com)

Controversial decisions weren’t limited to the feature bout at UFC 143, my friends. From scrotum to scorecard, there’s much to break down from the undercard action.

Fabricio Werdum put on a striking clinic against the slightly less-hefty Roy Nelson. Werdum put together crisp, powerful combinations and launched a torrent of knees from the clinch to bloody “Big Country” up. It was a welcome rebound from his performance against Overeem and a promising re-introduction to the Octagon. Nelson has an incredibly tough chin—proven by the sheer number of bombs he takes fight after fight—and a heart as big as they come—what else could pump that much blood out of his face?–but that’s not enough to make it in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He’s served as a very game punching bag for much of his post-TUF career, and it’s not a good look. On the positive side, his refusal to die in the cage did help the duo score the evening’s $65k ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus.

Two kicks + two mangled testes = two points? (Photo: UFC.com)

Controversial decisions weren’t limited to the feature bout at UFC 143, my friends. From scrotum to scorecard, there’s much to break down from the undercard action.

Josh Koshcheck managed to eek out an incredibly close split decision over Mike Pierce. Not only was this bout a big step up for Pierce, it was one that he publicly campaigned for. He worked his jab and out-struck the now-former AKA product throughout the fight as Koscheck shopped around for a home for his big right hand. It was the sort of dirty, grueling bout that Pierce typically employees, but it wasn’t enough to take home the ‘W’ in the judges’ eyes. Still, it was a solid showing against a highly ranked opponent. We don’t know what prompted Koscheck’s post-fight departure from AKA or how that may have effected his performance, but time will tell. As for those boos from the crowd, was it just me or did they actually seem to bother the happiest heel in the sport?

Renan Pegado proved what didn’t need proving: a 27-fight win streak is not just a run of good luck. “Barao” used an arsenal of kicks to punish Scott Jorgensen and keep him at bay. Coupled with his outstanding takedown defense, the Brazilian was in full control of this bout from the opening bell until the unanimous decision win was announced. It was a lopsided win over a tough opponent, and you can bet his fellow bantamweights took notice.

Ed Herman and Clifford Starks showed up to bang, but it was the ground game that mattered most. Herman threw uppercuts like they were going out of style, but Starks showed impressive power as he crowded “Short Fuse” against the cage and connected with a spate of worrisome right hands. Round one was a back and forth of heavy exchanges until Herman took Starks down to end the frame. Round two saw more reserved striking before Herman executed a trip takedown from the clinch and promply sunk in the rear naked choke. This marked Starks’ first loss and Herman’s third straight victory since his return to action in 2011.

In typical fashion, the evening’s prelim fighters put on quite the show, netting both of the evening’s fight-ending bonuses. UFC newcomer Stephen Thompson put on a karate clinic is his memorable ‘Knock Out of the Night’ win over Daniel Stittgen. With his sideways stance and unorthodox kicks, “Wonderboy” kept Stittgen guessing until finding a home for his highlight reel kick in the final minute of the first round. In a battle of young guns, Featherweights Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway came out swinging. Poirier landed heavy shots and his 20-year-old opponent was game to return fire, but once Poirier slammed him to the mat it was game over. “The Diamond” quickly took mount and attempted an armbar then a triangle before returning to mount and securing both in the evening’s ‘Submission of the Night’.

While both Thompson and Poirier’s victories increased their purses, Edwin Figueroa saw his mashed and mangled in route to a controversial decision win. He went toe-to-toe with Alex Caceras standing, but found himself in constant defensive mode on the ground. What could have been a clear victory for “Bruce Leeroy” was tarnished by a pair of accidental ball-breaking kicks to the groin. Twice Figueroa doubled over in pain, leaving us to wonder if he’d return from the five minute hiatus. Caceras was first warned by Herb Dean for the unintended low blow, but was docked two points on the second infraction. While Herb Dean has taken two points for low blows once before, it is far outside the norm. The kicks had to take a major toll on “El Feroz” and hamper his performance, but at the end of the day I don’t think the better fighter got his hand raised.

– Chris Colemon

Full Results: (via: MMAJunkie.com)

Carlos Condit def. Nick Diaz via unanimous decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46) – wins interim welterweight title
Fabricio Werdum def. Roy Nelson via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Josh Koscheck def. Mike Pierce via split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Renan Barao def. Scott Jorgensen via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Ed Herman def. Clifford Starks via submission (rear-naked choke) – Round 2, 1:43
Dustin Poirier def. Max Holloway via submission (mounted triangle-armbar) – Round 1, 3:23
Edwin Figueroa def. Alex Caceres via split decision (28-27, 27-28, 28-27)
Matt Brown def. Chris Cope via knockout (punches) – Round 2, 1:19
Matt Riddle def. via Henry Martinez via split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Rafael Natal def. Michael Kuiper via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Steven Thompson def. Dan Stittgen via knockout (head kick) – Round 1, 4:13

Better Know a Fighter: Max Holloway

Max Holloway highlights, compiled by SideBang Enterprises. By the way, you may want to watch this one without volume. You’re welcome in advance.

If you’ve been paying attention, the name Max Holloway should be familiar to you. If you haven’t, put on that dunce cap and write “Holloway is stepping in for an injured Ricardo Lamas to fight Dustin Poirier at UFC on Fox 2” twenty times on the chalk board. That’ll teach you.

While Poirier is a tough draw, especially for a guy making his UFC debut, Holloway is no slouch himself, despite only having four professional fights to his credit. Here’s what you need to know about “the other Lil Evil”, Max Holloway:

-Holloway is a twenty year old Hawaiian prospect who has compiled a 4-0 professional record. Three of his four victories have come via decision, with his sole stoppage being a first round knockout against then 12-17 Bryson Kamaka in 2010.

-Don’t let the lack of stoppages fool you into thinking Holloway is a boring fighter. Known for his unorthodox striking and exceptional conditioning, Lil Evil blitzes opponents early and often. And despite being six feet tall, Max Holloway prefers to stay in the pocket against opponents.

More on Max Holloway, including more fight vids, after the jump

Max Holloway highlights, compiled by SideBang Enterprises. By the way, you may want to watch this one without volume. You’re welcome in advance.

-Holloway’s fighting style has drawn a lot of comparisons to former WEC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis. So many that Jeremy Stephens actually recruited Max Holloway to help him prepare for his bout with Pettis at UFC 136.

-In March 2011, Holloway won the X-1 lightweight championship with a split decision victory over WEC/Strikeforce veteran Harris Sarmiento. It was only his third fight as a professional.

-His most recent fight was a decision victory over then 3-5 Eddie Rincon on July 1, 2011.

Holloway vs. Kamaka

Holloway vs. Rincon, part one

Holloway vs. Rincon, part two