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UFC 137: By the Odds

Filed under: UFCUFC 137 is one of those events where you really wish oddsmakers would offer some fun prop bets. For example, odds that B.J. Penn will lick someone’s blood off his gloves? (+375). Odds Roy Nelson will smack his somewhat diminished belly …

Filed under: UFC

UFC 137 is one of those events where you really wish oddsmakers would offer some fun prop bets. For example, odds that B.J. Penn will lick someone’s blood off his gloves? (+375). Odds Roy Nelson will smack his somewhat diminished belly on camera? (+125). Odds Nick Diaz will insist on wearing jeans and work boots to the weigh-ins, and make us all wait as he puts them back on before the staredown? (-700).

Alas, we’ll just have to make do with the odds on the fights themselves. Fortunately, there’s plenty of material here to sort through.

B.J. Penn (-125) vs. Nick Diaz (-105)

It was a borderline brilliant move by Cesar Gracie to try and get this changed to a five-round fight. As we’ve seen in the past, Penn is not always the same person at the end of round three that he is in the beginning of round one, and an extra two frames to take advantage of that would have helped the tireless Diaz immensely. But Penn’s no dummy. He played that attempt off with all the veteran savvy you’d expect, and his chances of winning went up in the process. That is, if the right B.J. Penn shows up, and if Diaz consents to let him have the kind of fight he wants.

Therein lies the problem for both those guys. Penn is inconsistent, while Diaz is almost comically hard-headed. Penn might, at any given point, look up at the clock and sigh like a teenager waiting out the last few minutes of Geometry class. Diaz might be able to take advantage of that if he were Jon Fitch of Georges St-Pierre, but he’s not. He just wants to scrap, and he’ll do so wherever Penn decides to take the fight. If Penn wants to box, they’ll box. If he wants to grapple, that’s fine too. It’s hard to wear a guy out when you let him decide where and how to fight. And if you can’t tire Penn out, you’re giving up the most reliable way of beating him. That could still work…if you’re the better all-around fighter. And if three rounds is enough time for you to prove it.
My pick: Diaz. The odds here don’t give us much of a push in either direction. With Penn, you wonder how hard he’s trained and how much he wants it. With Diaz, you never do. In a fight this close, that’s enough for me.

Cheick Kongo (+120) vs. Matt Mitrione (-150)

If this were a Rick Rude-style posedown, Mitrione would be in big trouble. Kongo looks the part of a terrifying heavyweight, and if you didn’t know better you might be forgiven for assuming that he was the superior athlete in this match-up. Big mistake. Don’t get me wrong, Kongo can do a few things well. He just can’t do enough things and he can’t do them well enough. Mitrione, on the other hand, is an agile, athletic big man who improves so much between each fight that it’s almost not worth watching film of his last few bouts to prepare for his next one. On paper, this should be Mitrione’s fight all the way. Instead of betting on who will win, a more interesting wager might be how many times Kongo will manage to knee him in the groin. I’ll set the over/under at two, and let you go from there.
My pick: Mitrione. At these odds I’ll toss it straight into the parlay bin and leave it there, but at least it’s one I can feel reasonably confident in.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (+190) vs. Roy Nelson (-240)

Here’s where, before doing anything, you need to check your emotions at the door. Don’t let sentimentality make you a poor man just because you wanted to believe that Cro Cop had one more headkick KO left in him. Would that be an awesome finish to his UFC career? Sure it would. Is it likely to happen? Nope. Not only can Nelson take it, he can dish it out. There was a time when we could say the same about Cro Cop, but the years and the physical damage have piled up on him now, and he goes down easier and easier. Nelson is a slugger on the feet who could probably also beat Cro Cop on the ground if he wanted to. Cro Cop is still a legend of the sport, but he’s also a shadow of his former self. Don’t let it get you down, but don’t bet on a miraculous resurrection either. Those days are gone, my friend. At least the two of you will always have Tokyo.
My pick: Nelson. It’s another one for the parlay, and another meager gain that breaks my heart just a little more than it’s worth.

Scott Jorgensen (-450) vs. Jeff Curran (+325)

While Curran is a likable guy and a real student of the game, if we’re being honest we also have to admit that he’s the MMA equivalent of an old car that’s held together by bailing wire and hope. He’s been beat up and broken down over the years, and has hung together reasonably well, all things considered. Still, when you look at his career record you see a man who’s been beaten by nearly every high-level opponent he’s faced. Jorgensen might be inexperienced by comparison, but not so much that he’s likely to get caught in a dumb submission or try to get too far away from his strengths. He’ll show up looking to ground-and-pound Curran into a bloody mess, and he’ll probably succeed.
My pick: Jorgensen. The odds are a bit more lopsided than I expected, but they favor the right man.

Hatsu Hioki (-350) vs. George Roop (+250)

Regular readers of this column will know that I simply must find at least one crazy underdog on every fight card, and when no obvious choice presents itself I am not above talking myself into one. So here goes: on paper, Hioki is the better fighter with the more established resume. He’s also spent almost his entire career fighting in Japan, and the UFC’s Octagon has not proved to be a very welcoming environment for many of his countrymen. Roop is a bigger fighter who is at home in the cage, and who, here and there, has shown flashes of real ability. He’s not championship material and probably never will be, but does he have what it takes to shock Hioki in his UFC debut in front of the friendly Las Vegas crowd? I think just maybe he does.
My pick: Roop. It’s a tasty line that I just can’t resist under these circumstances. Some oddsmakers even have him as high as +325, so look around for a bargain if you feel like taking the leap with me.

Quick picks:

– Dennis Siver (+215) over Donald Cerrone (-275). Cerrone is tough, but Siver is a different class of opponent than what he’s been up against lately. In a pick-em I’d take “Cowboy,” but at these odds Siver is worth a small risk.

– Danny Downes (+155) over Ramsey Nijem (-185). You won’t get rich off it, but Downes is the smart play against a guy who’s probably not quite at this level just yet.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Matt Mitrione + Roy Nelson + Scott Jorgensen + Brandon Vera

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Mirko Cro Cop Gets Philosophical Ahead of Crucial Roy Nelson Fight at UFC 137

Filed under: UFC, NewsOne of the most feared strikers in mixed martial arts history has gotten a little reflective in what is likely the twilight of his career.

That doesn’t mean he’s thinking about retirement, necessarily, though. Mirko “Cro Cop” Fi…

Filed under: UFC, News

One of the most feared strikers in mixed martial arts history has gotten a little reflective in what is likely the twilight of his career.

That doesn’t mean he’s thinking about retirement, necessarily, though. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic said Wednesday that when he’s ready to call it quits, he won’t leave any doubts.

But ahead of his fight with Roy Nelson at UFC 137 on Saturday, Cro Cop, who has lost two straight, said a loss to the Season 10 “Ultimate Fighter” winner would be nothing short of a “disaster.” And that thought is all he needs right now to get up for the fight.

“The biggest motivation? I lost two fights in a row, and if it happens that I lose the fight, I would be the unhappiest man on the planet, believe me,” Cro Cop told media members after a light workout at the UFC Training Center in Las Vegas. “After so much training and fights (in my career), to lose three fights in a row would be a disaster for me. But I will survive – even if it happened, I will survive. I have two kids I have to live for. But it would be a disaster. That’s why I trained really hard, and I will do my best to beat him.”

More Coverage: Watch UFC 137 Live Online | UFC 137 Fight Card | UFC 137 Results

Cro Cop (27-9-2, 4-5 UFC) was knocked out by Brendan Schaub in the third round at UFC 128 in March, and before that, he was knocked out by a Frank Mir knee at UFC 119 in September 2010. It’s just the second time in Cro Cop’s long career that he has lost back-to-back fights. The first came in his first stint with the UFC with a now-legendary knockout loss to Gabriel Gonzaga followed by a decision setback to Cheick Kongo.

Nelson (15-6, 2-2 UFC) is in similarly dangerous territory with two straight losses of his own – unanimous decision defeats at the hands of Mir in May and top heavyweight contender Junior dos Santos in August 2010. And though the famously portly Nelson may still joke about being the UFC’s resident husky heavyweight, Cro Cop, a 2-to-1 underdog in the fight, said his opponent’s threat is no laughing matter.

“He’s a dangerous guy,” Cro Cop said. “But people in my country will say, ‘If you beat him, you beat a fat guy.’ If I lost to him, they would start laughing at me. But he’s a super dangerous guy who can knock out anyone today. Some people might be tricked by his body – but he’s a dangerous guy.”

If Nelson proves to be too dangerous for Cro Cop, if the fight goes the way the bookmakers expect it to and he does watch an opponent’s hand get raised for the third straight time, it will be family he falls back on should he decide to hang up the gloves.

“I don’t expect too much from life,” Cro Cop said. “I don’t like to start saying stuff about philosophy, but life is nothing. What is life? Who can guarantee, from us here, that we’ll wake up tomorrow morning? No one. You could just die, you know? Just like that. So I don’t expect too much from life. I just want my kids to be happy – my family and I to be happy as much as I can. That’s all.”

With philosophical waxings about life and death, one might assume Cro Cop is already planning on the likelihood of a loss, followed by retirement. But the former Pride Open-Weight Grand Prix champ doesn’t see things going down that way – especially after training virtually nonstop, he said, since his loss to Schaub.

“When I decide to stop fighting, I will say it loud and clear,” Cro Cop said. “I have many reasons – (I’m) 37, I have two kids, 70 fights behind myself. I have a long and successful career and I can be proud of myself. I started in a small village in Croatia in my old garage as a self-made fighter. After my last fight, I came home and took a long break – about 12 hours – and then I started training. I’m a professional and I can’t let my body get extra weight. I don’t think my fans would appreciate that.

“I really like Roy. He’s a nice guy, and we’ll just shake hands. But this is just a business, and I want to beat him just like I expect him to want to beat me.”

Cro Cop and Nelson fight on the main pay-per-view card of UFC 137, which takes place Saturday at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas. The main event features a welterweight contenders bout between former champion BJ Penn and former Strikeforce champ Nick Diaz.

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The Cut List: Who’s in Desperate Need of a Win at UFC 137?

Filed under: UFCThe main event for UFC 137 may have seen its share of tweaking, but it’s not the only fight on this card with high stakes. Several fighters on Saturday night’s lineup could be just one loss away from unemployment, and one or two could e…

Filed under: UFC

The main event for UFC 137 may have seen its share of tweaking, but it’s not the only fight on this card with high stakes. Several fighters on Saturday night’s lineup could be just one loss away from unemployment, and one or two could even be facing retirement if they can’t pull out a win.

Who are they, and what are their chances for crafting a brighter future for themselves in Las Vegas this weekend? For answers, we turn to the Cut List.

Roy Nelson (15-6, 2-2 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Mirko Filipovic
Why he’s in danger: “Big Country” has lost two straight, and while he might have a very valid reason for looking like a man about to die from exhaustion in his last fight, it still didn’t make a great impression on his employers. You factor in his occasionally obstinate independent streak, not to mention a physique that, rightly or wrongly, the UFC would probably rather not try to present to the world as that of a world-class MMA fighter, and you might be looking at a man that the organization wouldn’t mind doing without. In the plus category, Nelson has a solid fan following, in part because of the very same idiosyncrasies that might make him unappealing at times to the UFC. He’s also a name-brand heavyweight, and the UFC needs all of those that it can get. The infusion of the Strikeforce big men will certainly help bolster the division, but the UFC might still be reluctant to cast off too many heavies while there’s still value left in them.
Chances of getting cut: Unlikely. The best thing Nelson has going for him here is the likelihood that he’ll win this fight. Oddsmakers have him as a nearly 3-1 favorite. As long as he’s healthy and focused, he should beat Cro Cop and solidify his employment situation.

More Coverage: Watch UFC 137 Live Online | UFC 137 Fight Card | UFC 137 Results

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-9-2 [1 NC], 4-5 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Roy Nelson
Why he’s in danger: Like Nelson, Cro Cop has lost two in a row. He’s also at the end of his current UFC contract, and Dana White has implied that he’s only giving Filipovic this fight because he owes it to him. Even if he gets the upset victory, it’s far from guaranteed that the UFC would see enough of a future in the 37-year-old Croat to sign him to a new contract. If he loses, well, he’s already said that he’ll not only leave the UFC, but also apologize to its fans and its front office for failing to “justify the treatment” he’s received. It’s enough to make you wonder, under what circumstances would this not be Filipovic’s final fight in the UFC? Even if he kicks Nelson’s head into the third row, the best possible outcome might be Cro Cop calling it quits anyway and going out on a high note. Then again, rarely does one come across an aging MMA legend who doesn’t interpret a victory as a sure sign that he should keep fighting indefinitely.
Chances of getting cut: Very good. But don’t think of it as a cut. Think of it as the natural (even necessary) end of something that we all knew couldn’t last forever. His stay in the UFC has been unspectacular, and his status as a legend is already established. No need to prolong this any further.

Tyson Griffin (15-5, 8-5 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Bart Palaszewski
Why he’s in danger: Griffin hit the dreaded three-fight skid recently, but managed to save himself by dropping down to featherweight and notching a decision win over Manny Gamburyan back in June. It was enough to grant him a temporary stay, but just barely. Now, facing another WEC transplant, he needs to show he can do more than just get by. The UFC might need featherweights to bolster the relatively thin (ha!) division, but it doesn’t need 145-pounders who can wrestle just well enough to win close, forgettable decisions. Griffin hasn’t had an impressive performance since he knocked out Hermes Franca over two years ago. If he wants a future in the UFC, he needs to show that he can not only get his hand raised, but entertain a few people along the way.
Chances of getting cut: Decent. If he loses this fight (oddsmakers doubt he will), he’s almost certainly gone. Fortunately, Palaszewski is weak in all the places where Griffin is strong. If he gets this one to the mat and keeps it there, Griffin will probably stick around for at least a little while longer.

Eliot Marshall (10-3, 3-2 UFC)
Who he’s facing: Brandon Vera
Why he’s in danger: It’s no secret that UFC officials aren’t big fans of Marshall’s fighting style. If they were, they probably wouldn’t have cut him after a 3-1 stint the first time around. He got back in the fold mostly by volunteering for a short-notice fight against Luiz Cane, which he lost swiftly and thoroughly, but which still earned him the chance to show the UFC what he could do with proper notice and time to prepare. If Marshall loses here, it’s almost guaranteed that he’ll get dropped again. If that happens, he says, he’ll hang up the gloves and call if a career. If that doesn’t give him the necessary sense of desperation to go out and lay it all on the line here, nothing will. Of course, Vera’s looking at a similar situation, yet is a 5-1 favorite to knock Marshall right into retirement.
Chances of getting cut: Very good. It’s hard to see how Marshall beats Vera. Perhaps a compelling fight would be enough to keep him around even in defeat, but don’t bet on it.

Brandon Vera (11-5 [1 NC], 7-5 [1 NC] UFC)
Who he’s facing: Eliot Marshall
Why he’s in danger: Vera also knows what it’s like to feel the sting of the UFC axe. If not for Thiago Silva’s non-human urine sample, he’d still be out of a job. But fair is fair, and the UFC rightly realized it couldn’t send a guy packing for losing to a juiced-up opponent, so “The Truth” gets one more chance to get it right. Both Vera and trainer Lloyd Irvin say he’s a different man in the gym now that he’s rediscovered his passion and motivation, but we’ve heard that before. The real test is whether he can perform in the cage under such tremendous pressure. The good news for Vera is that Marshall is a very, very beatable opponent. He probably doesn’t have the power or the wrestling chops to make it a ground fight for very long, and on the feet he’s in serious trouble. Or at least, he will be if Vera decides to use all his tools consistently and aggressively. We haven’t seen that in some time, but he has to know it’s now or never.
Chances of getting cut: Unlikely. This is Vera’s fight to lose, and I doubt he will. Even if he performs at a fraction of his abilities, it’s probably enough to beat Marshall. It just won’t be enough to stick around for very long after that.

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JWoww Adjusting Her Bikini Top Brings You the Fix Friday Link Dump

A bunch of T and A photos of Ms. TapouT turned Pro Elite Ring Girl, Jennifer Swift: here. Yet another change in the UFC 137 main card line-up as Brad Tavares is injured, thus yanking.

A bunch of T and A photos of Ms. TapouT turned Pro Elite Ring Girl, Jennifer Swift: here.

Yet another change in the UFC 137 main card line-up as Brad Tavares is injured, thus yanking his fight with Dustin Jacoby. Scott Jorgenson vs. Jeff Curran bumps up to pay-per-view and Jacoby will fight Clifford Starks in place of Tavares on the prelim-card. Confused? Read it: here.

TUF 13 winner, Tony Ferguson will face Yves Edwards at TUF 14 Finale event: here.

Chael Sonnen to host 2011 World MMA Awards this November 30th! That ought to make us actually watch the show!: here.

Watch Pat Barry and Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic sing “California Dreaming” because it’s only a minute long and if you’ve already seen Anderson Silva dance with Justin Bieber you have no excuse not to watch this. Plus, Cro Cop can carry a tune!: here.

The new UFC 137: BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz trailer: here.

WTF! I have DirecTV… And it may no longer offer Fox Network or its subsidiaries starting November 1st: here.

Enjoy pics of JWoww in her bikini below and get her “workout tips for having gravity defying boobs” (apparently, you don’t just buy them, you have to work at them): here.

Mirko Filipovic: I Want to Prove to Everybody That I’m Still ‘Cro Cop’

Filed under: UFCMirko Filipovic is convinced that his career nearly came to an end on Thursday morning. Forget the fights. Forget the bloody battles he’s been in, the knockouts he’s suffered, the countless training sessions he’s suffered through. This …

Filed under: UFC

Mirko Filipovic is convinced that his career nearly came to an end on Thursday morning. Forget the fights. Forget the bloody battles he’s been in, the knockouts he’s suffered, the countless training sessions he’s suffered through. This was serious.

The Croatian heavyweight, the Pride legend and veteran of nearly 40 MMA bouts, the great “Cro Cop” was nearly done in by a couple of stairs.

In his defense, the stairs were wet. It was raining out and he was headed off to training, but as he bounded down the stairs his foot hit a wet spot and he almost went down hard.

“I can’t believe I didn’t fall. I cannot remember when I was so scared,” he said. “I could have broken my spine just like that. My foot slipped on the stairs because it was wet, and I was shaking for five minutes because I was so close, and I was so happy.”

For Filipovic, the lesson in all this was clear right away. He’s known his whole career that, in this sport, it could all be over in an instant. But it’s one thing to know it intellectually or theoretically, and another to feel that fluttering fear that comes when your feet slide out from under you — that irrational, trembling panic. He got the message: you’re on borrowed time, pal.

More Coverage: Watch UFC 137 Live Online | UFC 137 Fight Card | UFC 137 Results

For the 37-year-old Cro Cop, it won’t necessarily take a freak injury to push him the rest of the way out of the sport. It could be as simple as getting beat by Roy Nelson at UFC 137 next Saturday night, and he knows it.

On this subject, Filipovic does not mince words. “I must win this fight,” he said over and over again. “…I will have to beat him, and I will do it. I trained six months for this fight. I will do it.”

But it’s not because, if he loses a third straight fight in the Octagon, he almost certainly will not get a new contract with the UFC. Even if he wins, that contract isn’t guaranteed since, as he put it, “First I have to beat Roy Nelson. And second, we have to make a deal.”

It’s not just his UFC future that’s at stake, however. And it’s not all about money, though, sure, he likes the money and, like any fighter, would prefer to make as much as possible before the ride ends for good. But for the man who has accomplished just about everything a person can in this sport, the stakes are different now.

“Some people, many people, buried me alive because I lost twice in a row,” he said. “I just want to prove to everybody that I’m still Cro Cop. …I want to raise from the grave. That’s what I want to prove to everybody. That’s my motivation.”

But say he beats Nelson. Then what?

For starters, Filipovic said, there are all the wonderful little moments that come with a victory, moments he’s learned to savor like the last few bites of a great meal.

“I want to feel that feeling when the referee raises my hand. I want to take that shower — it’s a special moment for me, taking that shower after my victory, and I’m so happy. I go back to the hotel and the next day I’m so happy. I don’t even think about [money] until the UFC bookkeeper calls me a few days later to transfer the money.”

But it’s not just the temporary joy or the glory he’s chasing, he said. He’s also in search of a fitting end to a great career, whatever that would look like at this point.

“I want to retire as the old Cro Cop. I don’t know if I will be able to do it, but I will die trying. Nothing is hard for me. I will die trying.”

It’s a long way from the reasons he started this in the first place. Back in 1996, two years after his father died and “and left me and my mother all alone without a dollar in our pocket,” the 21-year-old Filipovic got his start in K-1 kickboxing tournaments.

“It was the only way to drag me and my mother out of misery. That’s how I started. I wanted to beat people because I wanted to get more and more money to ensure financial independence for me and for my family. That’s all.”

The fame? The attention? He never wanted any of that. In his perfect world, he could fight and get paid without anyone knowing him once he left the cage.

“If somebody recognize me on the street or they don’t recognize me, I don’t care. I would prefer that they don’t recognize me. Unfortunately, in my country, everybody recognize me. I cannot hide, but it’s hard to live without privacy.”

The fame came as a consequence of his success shortly after he moved from kickboxing into MMA and went on to become one of the sport’s most iconic heavyweights. From Japan to the U.S., Cro Cop was a known man. But as time passed and his contemporaries got picked off one by one, Filipovic saw for himself how this sport can use up and discard a person — even the great ones.

“Look at Fedor [Emelianenko],” he said. “Fedor was untouchable until one year ago, and today nobody’s talking about him. He lost three times in a row. He was a great champion, great fighter, but he lost three times in a row and nobody talks about him. Only the fans who followed him his whole career respect what he did with his career, but that’s the name of the game. I don’t want it to happen to me.”

In Filipovic’s mind, at least, beating Nelson on October 29 is the only way to avoid the same fate as his old rival Fedor. That’s why he put everything he had into preparing for this fight, he said, even bringing out another former opponent — fellow UFC heavyweight Pat Barry — to give him some quality sparring sessions.

“And believe me,” he said, “it was wild sparring.”

But no matter what he’s done in the weeks leading up to this fight, he can’t guarantee the outcome. He can’t simply will his way to a victory that will keep his career and his name in the sport alive.

Losing remains a distinct possibility, and if it happens, he said, all he can do is “say to people, ‘I apologize, and I’m sorry I waste[d] your time.’ That’s all I can say and that’s exactly what I will say. I will disappear from the UFC and I will apologize, first to the headquarters of the UFC, because I was treated like a king, I was paid well, and unfortunately I didn’t justify the treatment. I didn’t justify the treatment. I don’t want live on an old glory. That’s why, believe me, I trained really hard for this fight.”

Will it be enough to win? Better yet, if he does win, if “the old Cro Cop” comes back even for just one night in October, will that be enough?

Once you’re reminded how great victory feels, and once you’ve proven that you’re still capable of achieving it, how do you stop chasing it? How do you simultaneously become the person you used to be, yet not continue doing what he would have done? And who was that person, anyway? And where did he go?

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Video: Shark Fights Mascot Really Needs Some Cash Bad

(Video courtesy of YouTube/GregInsco)

We’re not sure what he’s been blowing his exotic dancing and mascot pay checks on, but apparently Shark Fights mascot Greg Insco needs some fast cash bad.

I had Hardcore Pawn on in the background on my office TV earlier today when I thought I heard someone tell Les, the shop owner, that he had “two choices: left fist hospital or right fist cemetery.” I rewound the PVR to make sure I wasn’t hearing things and sure enough I wasn’t. You know MMA is reaching the mainstream when you see stuff like this on shows not at all related to the sport.

(Video courtesy of YouTube/GregInsco)

We’re not sure what he’s been blowing his exotic dancing and mascot pay checks on, but apparently Shark Fights mascot Greg Insco needs some fast cash bad.

Just last week I was watching Very Bad Things and while the first “very bad thing” happens in the hotel room UFC 8 can be seen rolling in the background. My wife thinks I’m an MMA nerd for noticing stuff like this, but it excites me to know that our once fringe sport is becoming accepted, even if it’s taken more than a decade to get where we are.