Crazy Enough to Be True: Ten Wild MMA Predictions for 2013


(You see, kids, this is why we don’t break the fourth rule of Project Mayhem. Photo via Complex)

By Jason Moles

As is customary, nay tradition, around these parts, we’re hitting the eggnog early and often this week — thus, the obligatory Top 10 list to close out another year in the world of mixed martial arts. It’s not all fluff, though: Last year we predicted a champion would test positive for a banned substance and Brock Lesnar would retire. Not bad, huh? So grab a seat while we break out the crystal ball and see what 2013 has in store for us.

1.) Showtime stays in the MMA biz, will announce deal with Invicta FC and others.

MMA is just too popular to completely wash your hands of. Showtime may finally be done with Strikeforce, but that only means they’re now free to partner up with the likes of all-female Invicta FC or the World Series of Fighting, both of which could be looking for more permanent homes after their early success in 2012. Don’t let the Invicta PPV news fool you; they can’t win that battle. No matter who inks the deal, expect Showtime to counter-program at least one UFC event.

2.) A Ronda Rousey loss brings about the swift execution of women’s MMA in the UFC.


(You see, kids, this is why we don’t break the fourth rule of Project Mayhem. Photo via Complex)

By Jason Moles

As is customary, nay tradition, around these parts, we’re hitting the eggnog early and often this week — thus, the obligatory Top 10 list to close out another year in the world of mixed martial arts. It’s not all fluff, though: Last year we predicted a champion would test positive for a banned substance and Brock Lesnar would retire. Not bad, huh? So grab a seat while we break out the crystal ball and see what 2013 has in store for us.

1.) Showtime stays in the MMA biz, will announce deal with Invicta FC and others.

MMA is just too popular to completely wash your hands of. Showtime may finally be done with Strikeforce, but that only means they’re now free to partner up with the likes of all-female Invicta FC or the World Series of Fighting, both of which could be looking for more permanent homes after their early success in 2012. Don’t let the Invicta PPV news fool you; they can’t win that battle. No matter who inks the deal, expect Showtime to counter-program at least one UFC event.

2.) A Ronda Rousey loss brings about the swift execution of women’s MMA in the UFC.

After amputating what’s her name in February, Rowdy will move on to calling out every woman possible who she knows cannot make 135 — especially Cyborg. In what comes as a major surprise to fight fans around the globe, Gina Carano accepts her open challenge (perfect timing to publicize her upcoming role in Fast 6) in late spring/early summer. “Conviction” TKO’s her way to victory then ships off to work on the chick version of The Expendables never to return to the cage. Dana White will be inconsolable but manages to release the handful of remaining women under Zuffa contract that don’t parade around in shorty shorts and a push-up bra.

3.) The Ultimate Fighter coaching curse ends in season 17. Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen will take place as scheduled — guaranteed.

Hear me out on this one. Just like you, the Injury Bug desperately wants to see this fight, either to see that fake-ass white boy Sonnen get savaged or to watch Jonny Bones get knocked down a peg or two.  That’s right, neither Jones nor Sonnen will become injured prior to their bout on April 27th. How can I guarantee something so outlandish? Suffice it to say we have our ways of getting things done.

4.) Dana White announces his retirement*.

A man can only go so hard for so long before his body tosses in the towel. Dana White’s battle with Meniere’s Disease combined with international travel will have finally caught up with MMA’s Moses. You’ll all kick yourself for not seeing this coming sooner. First it was a missed event, then it was two. Next thing you knew, DFW was running the broadcasts from his bunker in Vegas. During the breaking interview, Ariel Helwani will shower White with tremendous praise and wish him the best in his future endeavors while trying to keep a straight face on The MMA Hour because he was briefed on the regime change months ago. Helwani nose.

5.) An A-list celebrity tries his hand at MMA.

My sources cannot confirm, but the word on the street is that both CM Punk and Justin Bieber are looking to cash in on the MMA craze before the bubble bursts in 2014. ($%&@! I’ve said too much already.) You already know that Punk is a Gracie trained white belt, but did you know that the annoying little Bieber kid could throw down? Me either, at least not until I saw this. One guy is always one pipe bomb away from the unemployment line and the other, well… has the testosterone of Alistair Overeem at a random drug test, which means he’s constantly in a state of  “Come at me, bro!” These two savvy businessmen are too smart to leave money on the table so they nut up and get in the cage. But you can bet your last dollar “Biebs” won’t be fighting when the Octagon comes rolling into the Philippines.

*Announcement scheduled for 04/01/13.

Hit the “next page” link for even more Nostradumas-like predictions that will make us look like geniuses later…

Sign of the End-Times: UFC 150 Pulls an Estimated 190k Pay-Per-View Buys


(“Sorry Frankie, but based on the terms of your pay-per-view bonus scale — as clearly stated in your contract — you actually owe us $10,000.“)

It wasn’t just UFC 150‘s live-gate that fell way below expectations. According to a new report from Dave “Doom ‘N’ Gloom” Meltzer, last weekend’s Edgar vs. Henderson 2 card pulled in an estimated 190,000 pay-per-view buys. Judging by the MMAPayout.com Blue Book, that would make UFC 150 the second worst-performing UFC PPV since February 2006. And what’s the #1 worst-performing card of the last six years? The UFC 147: Silva vs. Franklin 2 show from just two months earlier, which took in only 175k buys. (UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao didn’t fare much better last month with a modest 235k buys.) Sorry Fric and Frack, Christmas has been canceled this year.

A couple caveats:
Keep in mind that there was a technical issue on Saturday night where DirecTV subscribers were unable to order the UFC 150 broadcast by phone or computer, although they could still order it via their remotes, according to reports. Plus, Bendo vs. Frankie ran up against the penultimate night of the 2012 Olympics, which may have stolen a few more viewers.

That being said…


(“Sorry Frankie, but based on the terms of your pay-per-view bonus scale — as clearly stated in your contract — you actually owe us $10,000.“)

It wasn’t just UFC 150‘s live-gate that fell way below expectations. According to a new report from Dave “Doom ‘N’ Gloom” Meltzer, last weekend’s Edgar vs. Henderson 2 card pulled in an estimated 190,000 pay-per-view buys. Judging by the MMAPayout.com Blue Book, that would make UFC 150 the second worst-performing UFC PPV since February 2006. And what’s the #1 worst-performing card of the last six years? The UFC 147: Silva vs. Franklin 2 show from just two months earlier, which took in only 175k buys. (UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao didn’t fare much better last month with a modest 235k buys.) Sorry Fric and Frack, Christmas has been canceled this year.

A couple caveats:
Keep in mind that there was a technical issue on Saturday night where DirecTV subscribers were unable to order the UFC 150 broadcast by phone or computer, although they could still order it via their remotes, according to reports. Plus, Bendo vs. Frankie ran up against the penultimate night of the 2012 Olympics, which may have stolen a few more viewers.

That being said…
We’re talking about a UFC event featuring a damned title fight. Granted, Frankie Edgar has never been one of the UFC’s more bankable stars — his two headlining appearances against Gray Maynard in 2011 drew 260k and 225K buys, respectively — but maybe that should have spurred the UFC to stack the supporting card with a few more big names. Instead, UFC 150 featured a passable co-main of Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard, and some watery bullshit underneath.

While BloodyElbow is taking the UFC apologist stance — “Hardcore fans buying 200,000 for the ‘smaller’ PPVs and clearing 750,000-1,000,000 for the 3-5 ‘mega-shows’ a year while building the brand on Fox…is working fine,” according to Brent Brookhouse — I tend to disagree. This was not the goal the UFC had in mind. They wanted growth, plain and simple, not a different-yet-still-effective business model. Fans are indeed voting with their wallets. And if PPV cards can vary so wildly in terms of quality, star-power, and excitement level, you’ll start seeing more fans become cautious with their money.

What do you think? Is the fact that the UFC just pulled their two lowest PPV totals in recent history cause for alarm? Will it send a message to the UFC to change their card frequency — or the fighters they use to headline a card? Or is this really all just part of the plan?