Tag: Predictions

Noche UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Staff Predictions

Noche UFC (UFC 306) is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions? The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, September 14, 2024. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary […]

Continue Reading Noche UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Staff Predictions at MMA News.

Noche UFC (UFC 306) is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions?

The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, September 14, 2024. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary card kicks off at 7:30 PM ET.

The main event will see Sean O’Malley make his second defense of the middleweight title. Following his crowning at the expense of Aljamain Sterling, “Sugar” stalled the championship ambitions of Marlon Vera this past March. He’s now tasked with repeating the feat against a teammate of Sterling’s, charging Georgian Merab Dvalishvili.

Co-headlining the Mexican Independence Day celebration, meanwhile, will be the country’s own Alexa Grasso. Having coached opposite one another on this year’s season of The Ultimate Fighter in the time since their rematch ended in a draw, the champ and Valentina Shevchenko will complete their trilogy this weekend.

Elsewhere on the main card, the fast-rising Diego Lopes once again looks to reach the top five at the expense of Brian Ortega, while Mexican prospects Daniel Zellhuber and Ronaldo Rodriguez hope to make the most of their positions on the prominent card.

Noche UFC 306: MMA News Staff Predictions

Ahead of Saturday’s Noche UFC event, Kyle Dimond, Ryan Jarrell, Thomas Albano, Andrew Starc, Pranav Pandey, and Aakrit Sharma have provided their picks for the five matchups set for the main card.

Below, you can check out the current leaderboard through five cards.

  1. Thomas Albano (19-5)
  2. Ryan Jarrell (15-9) 
  3. Kyle Dimond (13-11)
  4. Andrew Starc (7-7)
  5. Pranav Pandey (1-4)
  6. Aakrit Sharma (0-0)

And with that, it’s time for the team’s predictions for Noche UFC 306.

Flyweight: Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode’ Osbourne

Ronaldo Rodriguez, Ode' Osbourne
Images: UFC.com

Kyle Dimond: Osbourne has fought some very tough opposition during his UFC career, but the back-to-back losses are the major concern here. On this night of all nights, it feels like the Mexican fighters are going to have some added momentum, which I think will carry Rodriguez through here by way of a submission. (Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez)

Ryan Jarrell: Rodriguez looked impressive in his UFC debut, winning by submission in the second round over Denys Bondar. Meanwhile, this will be Osbourne’s tenth fight inside the UFC Octagon. Osbourne has been stopped in his last two fights and desperately needs to secure a win or possibly face losing his job in the world’s largest promotion. This is a tough fight to pick because I expect Osbourne to come out dialed in and looking his best. Rodriguez is the favorite and I can see a path to victory for the younger fighter, but I am picking Osbourne to show some grit and win a tough fought decision. (Prediction: Ode’ Osbourne)

Thomas Albano: Rodriguez has been on an absolute tear ever since his 2020 loss on Dana White’s Contender Series. He’s won six straight, which includes four finishes – with Rodriguez winning his UFC debut by way of a second-round submission of Bondar. Osbourne has proven to be an exciting fighter in his own right. However, momentum is just simply not on his side. And when you look at the capabilities of both men, Rodriguez’s wrestling is more effective, and his fighting style is more dynamic. Rodriguez is continuing to develop into a well-rounded fighter, and this should help him to another finish on a big stage. (Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez)

Andrew Starc: Rodriguez is coming into this one off a submission win against Bondar in his UFC debut this past February. The 25-year-old Mexican is unbeaten in his last six fights, while Osbourne has lost three of his last four, including two via submission. Given the lack of grappling defense Osbourne displayed in his last bout, I think he might be ripe for a another sub in this one. (Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez) 

Pranav Pandey: Rodriguez may still be flying under the radar, but he’s an absolute force inside the cage. His stunning submission victory over Bondar in his debut made it clear he’s anything but his “Lazy Boy” moniker. Rodriguez brings relentless forward pressure and pairs it with elite grappling skills, making him a dangerous opponent for anyone. On the other hand, Osbourne faces some tough questions about his recent form. Having been caught in submissions in his last two fights, along with showing signs of wear from previous battles, I just can’t envision this fight unfolding in favor of “The Jamaican Sensation.” (Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez)

Aakrit Sharma: Rodriguez showed toughness in his UFC debut and proved that he poses a submission threat on the ground as well. Osbourne, meanwhile, is coming off two straight submission losses and is unlikely to want the fight on the ground. I believe Rodriguez is the better fighter everywhere despite Osbourne boasting more experience in the UFC. Although “Lazy Boy” should try to take Osbourne down as a submission is his easiest path to victory, I’m predicting a knockout win for him. Osbourne tends to strike with his hands down, giving a sniper like Rodriguez a ton of space to land the perfect knockout blow. (Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez)

Consensus: 5-1 Ronaldo Rodriguez

Lightweight: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Zellhuber, Esteban Ribovics
Images: UFC.com

Kyle Dimond: This should be an absolute firecracker. Ribovics has got some frightening finishes to his name and I think he will test Zellhuber early. That classic Mexican heart is going to be on display here, and I’ve seen more from Zellhuber to suggest that he will do better once this fight goes into deep waters. I expect it to be a barnburner which, slowly, Zellhuber will start to take over in with his pressure and output en route to a TKO finish. (Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber)

Ryan Jarrell: This fight very well could be your fight of the night. Zellhuber has an eight-inch reach advantage and if he uses it effectively, it could be a long night for Ribovics. Having said that, Zellhuber has to be extremely careful with the power that his opponent possesses. We saw Ribovics kick Terrance McKinney into the shadow realm in his last fight, and he has the ability to do it in this fight too. Regardless, I expect Zellhuber to use his reach and fight smartly en route to a decision victory. (Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber)

Thomas Albano: This should be a fun matchup featuring a pair of up-and-coming lightweights. Both men are very talented strikers, and we could be in for a really underrated matchup. Since his win over Lucas Almeida on Dana White’s Contender Series, Zellhuber has won three of four fights he’s had in the UFC, with wins over Lando Vannata, Christos Giagos, and Francisco Prado. Ribovics, meanwhile, has won two of three fights he’s had since his DWCS appearance, including a 37-second knockout of McKinney in May.

If Ribovics is able to get in and land a couple of powerful shots, Zellhuber could find himself in trouble. I, however, feel Zellhuber will be mindful of his distance and look to land from the outside, making solid usage of his significant reach advantage. (Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber)

Andrew Starc: The rangy Zellhuber brings an all-round skillset of striking and grappling to this encounter, along with a three-fight win streak. Ribovics, meanwhile, is coming off a 37-second KO of McKinney in May — one of many knockouts and submissions on his résumé. This will be a contest between two young DWCS alums that I think will be decided by Zellhuber’s superior grappling. (Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber) 

Pranav Pandey: This could be an absolute barnburner as both fighters bring well-rounded skillsets to the table. “Golden Boy” enters as the clear favorite, largely due to his significant reach advantage, which could dictate the pace of the fight. Yet, underestimating “El Gringo” would be a mistake. Ribovics not only has the defensive sharpness to evade Zellhuber’s striking but also packs powerful punches that, when paired with his well-timed takedowns, make him a dangerous and unpredictable opponent.

I anticipate this fight unfolding primarily in the striking department, with Ribovics likely keeping his distance and looking to land heavy shots from the outside. The real intrigue, however, lies in how Zellhuber responds, as he’s just as explosive as his opponent. (Prediction: Esteban Ribovics)

Aakrit Sharma: This is my Fight of the Night contender because both fighters are unlikely to shoot for a takedown and have different yet exciting striking styles. “Golden Boy” is a master at managing distance and keeping opponents at bay through teep kicks and knees during the clinch. Ribovics, on the other hand, is a powerful striker who likes to trade in the pocket. His cardio will be an extremely effective tool in this fight, and his pace and power remain the same throughout all three rounds.

Zellhuber’s last win against Prado was extremely impressive as he was more active with punches, kicks, and knees and didn’t get hit a lot like his previous fights. The Mexican struggles against high-paced opponents, though, and Ribovics excels at landing big combinations out of nowhere. Both strikers have a solid chin, so my prediction is Zellhuber to win via decision. (Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber)

Consensus: 5-1 Daniel Zellhuber

Featherweight: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes

Brian Ortega, Diego Lopes
Images: UFC.com

Kyle Dimond: When this fight was originally booked for UFC 303, I went with Lopes on the back of his recent form whilst making a note to say that it seems to always be forgotten just how good Ortega is because he’s not that active. Well, after some more time to think about it, I’m going the opposite way.

It does worry me that Lopes throws a lot and Ortega takes too much punishment, even in his wins. I can see this fight being close and I think I’d probably pick Lopes if he had another two rounds to work with. Over three, I think Ortega might be able to hit UFC 306 with another ‘y’all must have forgot’ performance. Or, you could say that to steal a pro wrestling term, I’m going for 50:50 booking. 

I picked Lopes last time so I’ll pick Ortega this time. Considering how hard this one is to call, I have no shame in that. (Prediction: Brian Ortega)

Ryan Jarrell: This fight is very interesting on so many levels. When these two were initially matched up, I picked Ortega to get the win. Lopes is someone who is still evolving and has not reached his prime yet. I don’t think we can say the same thing about Ortega. “T-City” had a memorable win over Yair Rodríguez in his last UFC fight and it would be no surprise to see him notch another as an underdog. Having said that, I have to go with the younger fighter here. This would be the biggest win of Lopes’ career thus far, and I think he gets it. (Prediction: Diego Lopes)

Thomas Albano: This is a huge opportunity for Ortega – and an even bigger opportunity for Lopes. Over a year-and-a-half after suffering a shoulder injury against Rodríguez, Ortega returned in a big way by submitting him in spectacular fashion in February. Spectacular is also the word to describe Lopes’ time in the Octagon thus far. Just four fights into the UFC, he’s had a narrow loss to Movsar Evloev and highlight finishes of Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, and Sodiq Yusuff.

This should be one of the best fights on the card. It’s a big step up to be taking on a two-time title challenger, but it’s the biggest opportunity of Lopes’ life – and he needs to make the most of it. And the thing is, he has the capability to get it done. “T-City” might be tough to finish with a solid chin, but Lopes possesses some explosive speed and power with his striking. Even on the ground, the up-and-comer could be able to duel in grappling with Ortega with his jiu-jitsu experience. Lopes, in fact, has more wins via submission in his MMA career than he holds KO/TKOs. If he continues his run with the kind of circumstances he’s facing here, one can only imagine the kind of major doors that will open for him. (Prediction: Diego Lopes)

Andrew Starc: This is a huge step up in competition for Lopes. Ortega is coming off a submission win against Rodríguez in February, while the Brazilian has racked up three first-round finishes in the past year. Lopes is the bigger man with huge KO power, and both fighters have good grappling. However, I think if “T-City” survives a first-round onslaught from Lopes, his experience will see him get the win. (Prediction: Brian Ortega) 

Pranav Pandey: This is easily my favorite matchup on the card, as I believe it has all the ingredients to be the show-stealer of the night. Lopes is on an absolute tear right now, boasting impeccable credentials with knockout potential and a formidable grappling game to match. He poses a serious threat to Ortega, potentially being one of his toughest challenges to date. However, “T-City” is as tough as they come, showcasing sharp boxing skills with impressive volume striking. But what truly sets him apart is his ability to completely shift the momentum when the fight hits the mat. My only concern is whether his durability might be starting to wane.

Both fighters have a warrior’s mentality and won’t back down until the final bell. While Lopes has the edge with his youth and sharpness, Ortega’s resilience is a key factor that can’t be overlooked. He has the ability to turn the tide in the later rounds but must remain cautious of getting caught by the Brazilian’s strikes. Otherwise, “T-City” has the experience and savvy to steal the fight when it matters most. (Prediction: Brian Ortega)

Aakrit Sharma: It’s outrageous to me that Ortega is the underdog against Lopes. The Brazilian prospect has shown resilience and well-roundedness in his UFC fights so far, but Ortega has shared the Octagon for 25 minutes with the likes of Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. Because the fight is three rounds, I’m not expecting either fighter to get finished. Instead, it could be a back-and-forth brawl on the feet with some exceptionally slick scrambles in between. My prediction is for Ortega to win by decision, and his experience fighting way superior competition will be a key factor in the bout. (Prediction: Brian Ortega)

Consensus: 4-2 Brian Ortega

UFC Women’s Flyweight Title: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Alexa Grasso, Valentina Shevchenko
Images: UFC.com

Kyle Dimond: There’s a lot of factors that point to this being Grasso’s time to close out this trilogy, but there are a few issues with that — one being that Valentina Shevchenko is a bit good, and two, I can see there being a fourth fight if “Bullet” reclaims the belt. The former champ just refuses to let the division move on, but I do think that Grasso has enough to win another close fight. The first time, she capitalized on a mistake. The second time, she looked as good as we’ve seen her. I think that trajectory is going to keep climbing here. (Prediction: Alexa Grasso)

Ryan Jarrell: I cannot wait to see what unfolds in this trilogy fight. The former champion is now 36 years old and I think it’s fair to say not in her prime anymore. But I think Shevchenko is still good enough to pick up this win and reclaim the title. Grasso is definitely a tough out and matches up well with the veteran. I would not be surprised if she defends her title and closes this chapter in her career. It’s just hard for me to pick against Shevchenko. I won’t be placing a huge bet on this fight, but give me “Bullet” to win a decision here. (Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko)

Thomas Albano: It’s always great to see a trilogy fight, and considering the circumstances of their first two fights, this will really be enjoyable. We’ve never had a women’s trilogy fight in UFC history until tonight, and so while O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili is the main event, this fight (containing a Mexican-born UFC champion) should have a lot of focus.

If there is something that the first two fights between Grasso and Shevchenko have shown, it’s that Grasso is not afraid and can take it to the longtime former champion. Whether it’s grappling or the clinch, Grasso seems to have an edge. Of course, Shevchenko is known for her crisp, technical, sometimes powerful striking and being able to land from range. Shevchenko is also one of the more unpredictable and creative strikers in the cage with her fighting style, so she can never be counted out of the fight. Shevchenko performed well in both previous outings, but neither fight went her way given that she got caught in the first fight (to Grasso’s credit) and the debatable judges’ cards in the second fight (again, to Grasso’s credit on her own performance).

Though Grasso has gotten the better of Shevchenko twice already, Shevchenko is a smart, dedicated fighter who has definitely learned from the first two outings. Not everyone is ready to consider her no longer the top dog at 125 pounds, and she may very well bring a new plan into this third fight after taking in both of their 2023 outings. My feeling is that “Bullet” reclaims her throne in another competitive outing that may prove to be one of, if not the, best women’s UFC fights in 2024. (Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko)

Andrew Starc: The Shevchenko who a few years ago seemed unassailable is perhaps no longer. 36 years old now, she’s facing an opponent in Grasso who, while maybe not as technically gifted, is certainly in her prime. You could argue Shevchenko was the more dominant in their two previous meetings, and Grasso only clinched victory the first time due to Shevchenko’s slip up. This one could go either way, but it just seems like Grasso is going to pull off the win. (Prediction: Alexa Grasso) 

Pranav Pandey: Grasso and Shevchenko now stand on equal footing, with each fighter well-versed in the intricacies of the other’s skills and fighting style thanks to their previous encounters. On paper, “Bullet” seems to outclass the reigning champion in nearly every aspect — whether it’s her unconventional striking, defensive grappling, or overall skillset. However, what sets Grasso apart is her freshness, giving her a physical sharpness advantage over the more battle-worn Shevchenko. Moreover, Grasso carries a surge of confidence from her previous success against Shevchenko, which could be a decisive factor in their next showdown.

Shevchenko brings a menacing arsenal of striking threats, where one misstep from her opponent could lead to an early night. However, in her recent outings, she’s revealed glaring vulnerabilities against skilled grapplers, a weakness Grasso can exploit. If the Mexican plays her cards right and capitalizes on these openings, she has a strong path to victory. (Prediction: Alexa Grasso)

Aakrit Sharma: In their last outing, Shevchenko showed glimpses of a dominant force against Grasso throughout five rounds. She was getting the better of the striking exchanges and could secure four takedowns with over eight minutes of control time. However, the UFC women’s flyweight champion had a couple of huge moments like the second-round knockdown and the ground control in the last frame that made the fight a lot closer than it threatened to be at times.

Although Grasso is unbeaten in two fights against Shevchenko and “Bullet” no longer looks
invincible in the Octagon, it’s hard to bet against her. The former champ will still have a
massive power advantage and, with the right adjustments, she should be able to get a
decision win over Grasso at UFC 306. Grasso’s very tough and has good jiu-jitsu, so I wouldn’t predict a submission or finish win for Shevchenko. (Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko)

Consensus: 3-3

UFC Bantamweight Title: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Sean O'Malley, Merab Dvalishvili
Images: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC & @ufc/X

Kyle Dimond: This fight is going to be fascinating because of two big questions. We’ve seen Dvalishvili get hurt in the past and survive, but will he be able to do that against a sniper like O’Malley? And how will “Suga” fare against a pressure fighter like “Merab”The Machine.” This has become a real coin flip pick for me in the weeks leading up to this fight but I am going to side with and new.

I don’t see the challenger as someone who is going to lose confidence in this fight if he can’t close that gap or if he gets hurt when doing so. I think O’Malley will more than hold his own but I can also see him being stifled at points in this fight, which will give Dvalishvili the rounds he needs to take home the bantamweight title. (Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili)

Ryan Jarrell: There was a time when I was absolutely convinced that Dvalishvili would eventually be the bantamweight champion and the man to dethrone O’Malley. But I have been slowly losing my confidence in picking the Georgian to get the job done. The main reason is because of how many openings he leaves when closing distance. “Suga” is a sniper and so precise with his punching placement. I just believe that over 25 minutes, there will be a moment when Dvalishvili gets caught and O’Malley capitalizes for the TKO finish. (Prediction: Sean O’Malley)

Thomas Albano: O’Malley’s rise to the UFC bantamweight championship has been nothing short of spectacular and star-making. Having said that, he’s taking on a man who probably would have received a title shot a lot sooner if he was willing to fight his friend and teammate in former champion Aljamain Sterling. O’Malley seems to continue to get better with every fight, but Dvalishvili presents a unique challenge that he hasn’t faced before – and perhaps the toughest that he’s ever faced.

Though it sounds generic to say, this one truly is a striker vs. grappler matchup, and whoever dictates control of the fight determines how this one is going to go. If Dvalishvili is as dominant with his takedowns and his wrestling as we’ve seen him be in the Octagon, it’s going to be a long night for “The Suga Show” and his fanbase. But if O’Malley has really worked on his takedown defense and his wrestling, then he can keep this fight standing, where it will be a great night for him.

Unfortunately for O’Malley and his fans (or for me in case I get this wrong!), I feel like unless I see Dvalishvili be stopped in his relentless takedown pursuits, I’m not going to doubt him. And considering this may be Dvalishvili’s only opportunity at the 135-pound gold after just serving as Sterling’s “bodyguard” of sorts when he was champion, I don’t think Dvalishvili is going to just let this opportunity slip through his fingers. (Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili)

Andrew Starc: Dvalishvili’s relentless wrestling and cardio seem the antidote to O’Malley’s phenomenal striking, but how will the Georgian perform under the pressure of his first title fight? Also factoring into his chances is the fact that Dvalishvili revealed to the world a cut that’s prime for targeted shots from O’Malley, and that he could possibly have a staph infection. O’Malley seems the sort of fighter that steps up a notch in big title fights, and I think he’s going to use his striking to get the win here. (Prediction: Sean O’Malley) 

Pranav Pandey: In my view, Dvalishvili poses a formidable threat to Sean O’Malley, primarily due to his relentless pace and suffocating wrestling style, which has consistently left his opponents gasping for air. Yet, “Suga” isn’t one to back down easily. With his exceptional takedown defense and uncanny ability to capitalize on his reach, he’s more than capable of turning a potential wrestling clinic into a striking showcase.What truly sets O’Malley apart, though, is his sharp counter-striking, which could serve as a perfect antidote to Dvalishvili’s forward pressure. His precision and timing allow him to exploit even the slightest openings, forcing opponents to rethink their approach.

I anticipate the early rounds will see both fighters engage in a tactical chess match, cautiously gauging each other’s rhythm and distance, with neither willing to overcommit too early. While “The Machine” has proven time and again that he can push the pace, O’Malley presents a different challenge. His precision striking could sap Dvalishvili’s energy reserves faster than expected. Dvalishvili’s susceptibility to being hit, particularly around the temple, perfectly aligns with O’Malley’s prowess as a devastating headhunter with fight-ending power. While Dvalishvili has the endurance to push the fight into deep waters, evading “Suga’s” pinpoint strikes will be an immense task , though the Georgian has the resilience to pull it off. (Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili)

Aakrit Sharma: Din Thomas rightly predicts that this fight won’t be a back-and-forth. Either Dvalishvili’s wrestling will overwhelm O’Malley for five straight rounds or the champ’s takedown defense and clean striking won’t allow the Georgian to be as relentless as he usually is. O’Malley has really underrated grappling. Petr Yan could take him down at will but “Suga” didn’t take much damage on the ground and hopped back up in several creative ways. He’s improved drastically since that fight, and his ability to hit you as soon as you enter the pocket should be a problem for Dvalishvili. O’Malley’s knees should also serve him well against a grappler like Dvalishvili.

If the fight goes the distance, “The Machine” will most likely get the nod, but my prediction is O’Malley winning via KO before the fourth begins. (Prediction: Sean O’Malley)

Consensus: 3-3

That’ll do it for our Noche UFC 306 staff picks! What do you think? Do your picks look similar? Let us know in the comments section! Also, you can check out the full Noche UFC 306 card below.

Main Card:

  • Bantamweight Championship Main Event: Sean O’Malley (C) vs. Merab Dvalishvili
  • Flyweight Championship Co-Main Event: Alexa Grasso (C) vs. Valentina Shevchenko
  • Featherweight: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
  • Lightweight: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
  • Flyweight: Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode’ Osbourne

Preliminary Card:

  • Bantamweight: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
  • Bantamweight: Irena Aldana vs. Norma Dumont
  • Lightweight: Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
  • Flyweight: Edgar Cháirez vs. Kevin Borjas
  • Strawweight: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza

Be sure to keep it right here on MMANews.com tomorrow for all the results, highlights, and updates on Noche UFC 306!

Continue Reading Noche UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Staff Predictions at MMA News.

UFC 305: Staff Predictions For Du Plessis vs. Adesanya, Gamrot vs. Hooker, Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik, & More

UFC 305 is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions? The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, August 17, 2024. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary card kicks […]

Continue Reading UFC 305: Staff Predictions For Du Plessis vs. Adesanya, Gamrot vs. Hooker, Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik, & More at MMA News.

UFC 305 is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions?

The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, August 17, 2024. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary card kicks off at 6 PM ET.

The main event will see Dricus Du Plessis make his first defense of the middleweight title. Following his crowning at the expense of Sean Strickland, “Stillknocks” is now tasked with preventing the man whom “Tarzan” unseated from returning to the throne, Israel Adesanya.

Co-headlining, meanwhile, will be Perth’s own Steve Erceg. Months on from a narrowly failed title bid against Alexandre Pantoja in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, “AstroBoy” will look to begin his journey toward a second shot by spoiling top-five contender Kai Kara-France’s long-awaited return.

Elsewhere on the main card, Dan Hooker attempts to climb into lightweight contention against Mateusz Gamrot, Heavy-hitting Aussie Tai Tuivasa looks to get back in the win column, and Chinese fan favorite Li Jingliang makes his comeback from a two-year injury layoff.

UFC 305: MMA News Staff Predictions

Ahead of Saturday’s UFC 305 event, Kyle Dimond, Ryan Jarrell, Thomas Albano, Tyriece Simon, Andrew Starc, and Pranav Pandey have provided their picks for the five major matchups set for Saturday night (Sunday morning local time).

Below, you can check out the current leaderboard through four cards.

  1. Thomas Albano (16-3)
  2. Tyriece Simon (14-5)
  3. Ryan Jarrell (13-6) 
  4. Kyle Dimond (12-7)
  5. Andrew Starc (5-4)
  6. Pranav Pandey (0-0)

And with that, it’s time for the team’s predictions for UFC 305.

Welterweight: Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates

Li Jingliang, Carlos Prates
Images: Jeff Bottari/UFC/Zuffa LLC & UFC.com

Kyle Dimond: A few years ago, there would have been a better conversation as to whether Jingliang could wear on his opponent and use his experience to really push him in the second half of the fight. For me, the two years away won’t do “The Leech” any favors in this fight and Prates has looked absolutely wicked so far inside the Octagon. I think Prates is going to keep climbing here but I think he might need the judges to do so given his opponent’s experience and toughness. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)

Ryan Jarrell: This will be a fun fight to start off the main card. Jingliang has a lot more tape to watch as a UFC fighter and has had the more difficult opponents in the past as well. This will be the fight that shows just how dangerous Prates is in this division. I expect him to rise to the occasion and put the veteran away. I don’t expect it to be easy, but I think Prates will chip away until he finds an opening to finish the fight. Give me the Brazilian for the win late in the fight via TKO. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)

Thomas Albano: It’s been almost exactly two years since we’ve seen “The Leech” in action, but it’s great to see Jingliang finally return. The only problem? He’s taking on a really dangerous up-and-comer in Prates. Despite the layoff, Jingliang may still be one of the best 25-30 welterweight names in the world, and he is a major step-up in competition for the Brazilian. Prates is just 2-0 in the UFC after earning a contract through Dana White’s Contender Series, but he’s built up his name through knockout wins in his time in the Octagon thus far – as well as a pair of fights with the LFA.

Jingliang is a good all-around fighter, but he’s definitely better known for his striking. The problem is, while he is a great striker and has competed against some of the best, can he match Prates’ intensity with his strikes – and can he take those strikes? This will be a fun scrap that probably won’t go the distance. I’ve been wanting to go with Jingliang, but seeing what Prates has done thus far – as well as the hype about him from several of my colleagues in the MMA sphere – I’m swayed. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)

Tyriece Simon: One of the big factors coming into the fight will be whether Jingliang will struggle due to ring rust. He’s been out of action for nearly two years, and Prates isn’t an easy opponent for a comeback. The Dana White’s Contender Series alum is on a nine-fight win streak, and I think he’ll be victorious on Saturday.

I believe Prates will pressure Jingliang early and make his opponent’s return uncomfortable. The Brazilian knockout artist likes to aim for the body, making his opposition drop their hands for a power punch to the head. I fully expect Prates to have the same game plan for “The Leech,” and I think he’ll get another knockout in the first or second round. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)

Andrew Starc: Prates has knocked out his two previous opponents since making his UFC debut in February. 10-year UFC veteran Jingliang, meanwhile, hasn’t fought since his split decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez almost two years ago. I think the much younger, rangier and powerful striker Prates will make easy work of “The Leech” here. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)   

Pranav Pandey: “The Leech” returns to the Octagon after a grueling two-year hiatus, hungry for a victory. However, the odds are stacked against him in what appears to be a challenging matchup. My concerns for Jingliang are twofold: his form after such a long layoff and his reach disadvantage. While Prates might not yet be a household name, he’s an imposing figure in the welterweight division — a towering presence with a striking pedigree that boasts eight consecutive knockout finishes.

“The Nightmare” could indeed live up to his moniker for Jingliang, as his clinical striking ability is nothing short of devastating. Unfortunately, I struggle to see a scenario where the Chinese veteran emerges victorious in this bout. (Prediction: Carlos Prates)

Consensus: 6-0 Carlos Prates

Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Tai Tuivasa, Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Images: UFC.com

Kyle Dimond: When you look at Rozenstruik’s record, he tends to only lose against the very top heavyweights in the division. Everything about this fight is pointing me toward Tuivasa being caught with a huge counter as he tries to pressure his opponent. If this was an Apex main event, my pick would be solidified in solid gold, but something about Perth, Australia, is tempting me the other way. In the interest of picking an underdog on this main card, I’m going all in on “Bam Bam” in the hopes that he can raise the roof. (Prediction: Tai Tuivasa)

Ryan Jarrell: This will be a very fun fight for as long as it lasts. Tuivasa is fighting on home turf and that should give him some extra juice to potentially pull off the upset. “Bigi Boy,” however, is the safe play here. He is more technical and carries a ton of power to go with his technicality. I expect him to avoid the early surge from Tuivasa and catch him at some point late in the first or second and finish this fight. (Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik)

Thomas Albano: Just like how I think this fight will play out, I’m not making my analysis and prediction long. These are two heavyweight knockout artists who are struggling to show they still belong in the contender rankings. Both have had their highs and lows over the last five years or so in the UFC, and both are going to come out flashing their power, looking to capitalize on the first mistake to get the devastating knockout. While Rozenstruik has had ups-and-downs of late, he’s coming in with two finishes in his last three fights. It’s been much tougher for Tuivasa, who has lost four straight, and given what “Bigi Boy” can do to people, it’s probably going to get rougher for him. (Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik)

Tyriece Simon: Tuivasa finds himself in yet another must-win bout against a dangerous opponent. “Bam Bam” is on a four-fight skid and will lose his spot in the top 10 of the rankings with a defeat at UFC 305. Rozenstruik is currently the betting favorite to win, and I think he has a great chance.

An interesting aspect of this fight is that “Bigi Boy” has only lost to fighters with a reach advantage over him. I think he’ll try to attack Tuivasa’s legs in the first round and look for a hook or a short jab when his opponent tries to come within distance. I don’t believe the Australian heavyweight is exceptionally more agile than Rozenstruik, which could make it challenging to land a significant punch for a knockout. Tuivasa is tough and has the power to get a knockout, but I lean toward Rozenstruik being victorious. (Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik)

Andrew Starc: Both fighters are coming into this with less than spectacular records – particularly Tuivasa, who’s lost his last four. Yes, those came against the best of the division, but I’m not sure even a home crowd is going to propel Tuivasa to recapture that form that saw him make a run for the title two years ago. 

He is, however, likely fighting for his UFC career here. That said, it’s probably going to be a slugfest that won’t see the second round, and I can’t see Tuivasa coming out on top. (Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik)   

Pranav Pandey: Expect both fighters to be hunting for that perfect, fight-ending shot right from the start. Given that both are navigating through a challenging phase in their careers, they may approach this bout with extra caution. However, I think Tuivasa’s recent string of losses has served as a wake-up call. He’s the sharper, more precise striker, and his agility could give him the edge. But he’ll need to be wary of charging in recklessly against a counter-puncher like Rozenstruik, who thrives on punishing his opponents’ mistakes.

This fight isn’t likely to see a second round — in fact, I’d bet on a finish within the first. If “Bam Bam” plays his cards right, he could very well redeem himself and get back on track. (Prediction: Tai Tuivasa)

Consensus: 4-2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Lightweight: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker

Dan Hooker, Mateusz Gamrot
Images: UFC.com

Kyle Dimond: This one is probably the main card fight I’m the most confident in and that’s no slight on Hooker, who I love watching. I’m just super high on Gamrot and believe his style is a problem for “The Hangman.” Hooker is a good striker and has some dangerous submission threats, hence the nickname, but “Gamer” is just so relentless that it makes it hard to capitalize on these opportunities. Tee Polish fighter will need to be careful of walking into a knee or guillotine choke, but I think his pressure isn’t going to give Hooker too much time to set this up, even if he has moments on the feet, like the Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner fight. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot)

Ryan Jarrell: This is a tough matchup to call. Both of these guys are extremely dangerous fighters. The length of Hooker worries me from a betting perspective, because he holds a sizable advantage in both reach and height. Having said that, Gamrot will win this if he fights smart. That’s what I am expecting to happen and we should see “Gamer” notch his eighth win in the UFC. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot)

Thomas Albano: With everyone else in the lightweight title picture outside of injured champion Islam Makhachev and #1 contender Arman Tsarukyan coming off a loss, this fight presents a huge opportunity for Gamrot. With Tsarukyan saying he wants to have an interim title fight before the year is over, a win for “Gamer” here could clinch him the spot as the opponent in that potential fight if he comes out unscathed. That said, Hooker isn’t the easiest opponent.

“The Hangman” has come up short against top competition in the division (ex: Makhachev, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler), but he’s gritty, durable, a tactician, and an entertaining striker who can put on a strong performance at any time. And while Gamrot has a clear wrestling advantage, it shouldn’t be discredited that Hooker has good wrestling defense that could force the fight standing at times. And the longer the fight is on the feet, the better Hooker’s chances. That said, Gamrot’s wrestling pedigree is probably going to be too much. This one should be a fun war, but I lean to ward the Polish contender getting a clear win and a big opportunity next. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot)

Tyriece Simon: Hooker has finally found his groove in his last two fights after four years of inconsistency. His last win over Jalin Turner showed he’s still a formidable opponent in the lightweight division. That said, Gamrot presents a dynamic matchup that I think will give ‘The Hangman’ issues.

The “Gamer’s” ability to mix up his striking with takedown attempts will be a key to the fight. Hooker is a difficult opponent to finish, but I think he can lose Saturday night by being outworked to a decision loss. The threat of takedowns could open “The Hangman” up for Gamrot to land some significant strikes and sway the judges in terms of activity. The fight can go either way, but I believe Gamrot will win on the scorecards. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot)

Andrew Starc: I can’t see Hooker stopping Gamrot’s relentless wrestling. Of course, there’s always a chance the Kiwi could snag a KO via a well-timed knee or with the devastating striking he’s known for. Hooker certainly has ‘the dog in him’, as they say, having shown that in his last outing against Jalin Turner. But that win was over a year ago, during which time Gamrot has racked up victories over Rafael Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos. The Polish fighter will likely get the decision here. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot) 

Pranav Pandey: This fight promises to be a gritty battle to determine who can outlast the other. By all accounts, Gamrot appears to have the upper hand, with his wrestling style posing a formidable challenge for most opponents. However, Hooker’s defensive wrestling is robust enough to give him a legitimate shot at victory. “The Hangman” also wields sharp offensive leg strikes, a crucial weapon for deterring takedowns and punishing wrestlers who dare to shoot in.

If Hooker can keep the fight upright for an extended period, he has the potential to outstrike Gamrot or even secure a stoppage. That said, while striking may not be Gamrot’s forte, “Gamer” possesses an ironclad toughness, and his resilience could very well be the key to grinding out a win if the fight goes the distance. All factors considered, I believe Hooker’s previously broken arm might hinder his ability to throw strikes with full force, opening the door for Gamrot to capitalize. This weakness could be the very advantage “Gamer” need to turn the tide in his favor and claim the win. (Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot)

Consensus: 6-0 Mateusz Gamrot

Flyweight: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg

Kai Kara-France, Steve Erceg
Images: UFC.com & Eternal MMA

Kyle Dimond: I think it’s gone under the radar how utterly brilliant this fight is. I think maybe people have forgotten just how close Kara-France has been to some huge victories in the past. He’s a massive test for Erceg and I’m surprised to see him as the clear underdog. That being said, I do think Erceg might have this one. Both men have got dangerous hands but I believe the Australian might be able to win the exchanges by being a bit tighter and not extending like Kara-France will. It’s another tough one to call though and I can see it being a very close decision at the end of three rounds. (Prediction: Steve Erceg)

Ryan Jarrell: If you didn’t believe in “AstroBoy” before the Pantoja fight, I bet you do now! Erceg is the real deal and is incredibly well rounded as a fighter. Kara-France is a great fighter and brings a lot of experience into this fight. I just believe the length and versatility that his Australian opponent brings to the table will be the difference. Give me Michael Scott to win a decision here. (Steve Erceg)

Thomas Albano: Kara-France has consistently been a bridesmaid, never the bride, always falling a fight short of receiving an undisputed title opportunity. Meanwhile, this will mark Erceg’s first fight since falling short in a title fight with Alexandre Pantoja – a fight in which had it not been for some bad fifth-round IQ, Erceg could have pulled off the major upset and be the champion now.

The two are going to look to deliver, and this will probably be one of the best fights of the night. Kara-France has some great striking and has experience against some of the best fighters in the division. Having said that, Erceg nearly beat the best of them all, and his short run in the UFC so far has shown that he has great striking himself, as well as solid wrestling. The Australian is slowly developing into an all-around great flyweight (to the point Pantoja, following their fight, said he will be the UFC flyweight champion one day), and that’s why I’m leaning to him in this three-round battle. (Prediction: Steve Erceg)

Tyriece Simon: This fight is the hardest to predict on the main card. Erceg is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Pantoja, as the champion outperformed him with his grappling and striking. I’m not sure Kara-France will have a similar game plan, but he generally doesn’t commit to as many takedowns in a fight as the champion. I think both fighters will try to stand with each other, and I lean toward this benefiting Erceg the most.

He’ll have the height and reach advantage to keep his opponent at a distance with his jab. “AstroBoy” must be mindful of Kara-France’s feints, as it caused him trouble in fights against the likes of Matt Schnell. However, I think Erceg’s reach advantage, hand speed, and power could lead to him doing enough to edge out a decision win. (Prediction: Steve Erceg)

Andrew Starc: Kara-France is on a two-fight skid and will be facing a man fighting on home turf in Erceg. “Don’t Blink” hasn’t fought in over a year, having last lost via split decision to Amir Albazi. Half of the much more active Erceg’s wins have come via submission and he’s also a very good striker to boot. While he’s not nearly as experienced as Kara-France, I think the Aussie will outmatch the Kiwi here. (Prediction: Steve Erceg) 

Pranav Pandey: This matchup has all the ingredients for an intense and tightly fought battle, given that both fighters are nearly evenly matched in terms of skill and versatility. While Kara-France brings a wealth of experience and a polished striking game to the table, his return after more than a year out of the Octagon could be a significant factor in this fight. However, Kara-France undoubtedly packs more firepower than his opponent.

On the other hand, Steve Erceg comes in with fresher legs and momentum. “Astroboy” showcased remarkable prowess and tenacity in his title fight against champion Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 301, which speaks volumes about his potential in this clash. The Aussie undoubtedly secures a distinct edge with his grappling skills, and if he can withstand “Don’t Blink’s” relentless assault, I envision him emerging victorious in this fight. (Prediction: Steve Erceg)

Consensus: 6-0 Steve Erceg

UFC Middleweight Title: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya

Dricus Du Plessis & Israel Adesanya
Image: Will Russell/Zuffa LLC

Kyle Dimond: This certainly feels like one of the biggest fights of the year on paper, even if the hype does seem to have died down a bit as of late. It’s a fight that I could honestly go back and forth on for hours. Adesanya is notoriously very effective against larger, more physical opponents who want to walk him down, land big shots and get a hold of him. The difference between Du Plessis and the likes of Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori is that he’s so much more unique. His movement is totally the opposite of their very traditional and plodding styles.

That’s the million-dollar question for me: can Du Plessis make Adesanya second guess himself? Sean Strickland did it by staying in his face and being defensively sound, and I wonder whether the champion can do it with his awkward timing. The big thing that does concern me on Du Plessis’ side is offensively, is Strickland landed on Adesanya because he’s so efficient and consistent. Du Plessis, on the other hand, tends to throw a lot with some explosive but wild technique. This is where I think Adesanya can win this fight. While the South African is far from predictable, he also fights with recklessness. Admittedly, I have flipped on this being a winning or losing factor for him throughout this week alone. (Prediction: Israel Adesanya)

Ryan Jarrell: This fight is way bigger for the legacy of Adesanya than it is for Du Plessis. The former champion cannot afford to lose this fight if he wants to remain behind Anderson Silva on the all time 185-pound list. I understand how dangerous “Stillknocks” is and how tricky of a fighter he is to figure out. But he leaves a lot of openings and is no where near as technical as Adesanya is. Because of that, and the fact that the Nigerian-New Zealander’s back is against the wall in this fight, I just can’t pick against him. I believe we will see the best version of Adesanya at UFC 305 and he will catch the champion to reclaim the title. (Prediction: Israel Adesanya)

Thomas Albano: Though several people may feel that this fight’s hype has been lost – given everything from Adesanya’s loss to Strickland and year-long layoff – I don’t think that’s completely the case. He and Du Plessis still are heated with one another, and what is not to love about a guy who is looking to show why he is the true king of the division taking on someone who has been twice before – and someone who is looking to join Randy Couture as the only ones to win the same UFC division title three times.

Du Plessis’ biggest question mark as he rose up through the UFC ranks has been his cardio. He is a fighter who is all about bringing it early and getting the job done early – and that left people concerned about him as fights went past the first round. Some of that, however, seemed to be dispelled upon his fight with Strickland. He’s never dealt with someone who can be awkward, free-flowing, and creative with his striking like Adesanya either. And the former champ’s opponent history versus Strickland’s? It may be a valuable argument that he’s taking on a bigger challenge in his first defense than when he challenged for and won the title at UFC 297 earlier this year.

But, Adesanya probably has more to lose here. It’s been a year since we’ve seen him in action. The reason for the layoff was a needed rest, as he’s just 4-3 in his last seven fights. And it’s a very reasonable argument to say that Adesanya’s performances over the last few years have (for the most part) not matched up to his previous outings. We know what his potential is, but can he fulfill it against someone who is younger and hungry to stake his claim as the best 185lber in the UFC, or even in all of MMA (especially given plenty of people still feel Du Plessis should have been given a loss to Strickland)? Plus, the South African has his own power, aggression, and awkwardness that could spell some trouble for “The Last Stylebender.”

Given the bad blood and high stakes in this one for both men, this one isn’t going to go to the scorecards. Either Du Plessis is going to use his striking and pace the fight effectively to get the win, or Adesanya is going to bring the creative destruction he is known for to claim back his throne. Given how long I’ve been on the DDP hype train, as much as I enjoy watching Adesanya fight and Du Plessis is actually the underdog, I am going to go with the former. (Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis)

Tyriece Simon: I truly believe this fight is Adesanya’s to lose. “The Last Stylebender” is the better striker and will have the reach advantage to pick apart the champion at a distance. He can control the fight if he can use his footwork to avoid getting into close exchanges with his rival. However, an important factor in the fight will be if Adesanya’s inactivity from the competition will affect him.  He seems like he is in the best shape of his career. That said, Du Plessis should aim to test if “The Last Stylebender” has a little ring rust by putting him on his back foot early with feints and kicks to the body.

The former middleweight champion sometimes tends to lean back to avoid strikes, so “Stillknocks” could find success doubling up on a jab and finish with his hook, head kick, or a takedown attempt. Du Plessis will need to pressure and mix up his offense to throw off the Nigerian-born, New Zealand-based kickboxer. Ultimately, I believe “The Last Stylebender” will get his hand raised by countering his opponent for a knockout or winning a decision. (Prediction: Israel Adesanya)

Andrew Starc: Du Plessis has made a point of saying Adesanya has nothing to fight for anymore, but I disagree – particularly with respect to this matchup. The desire to regain the title notwithstanding, I feel Adesanya’s motivation to get back at Du Plessis for his ‘African champion’ comments will see him extra focused on the win here – not to mention he’ll be wanting to make right for his last performance.  

Adesanya has also had a long layoff to shake off the burnout he claimed to be suffering after a busy few years. It really could go either way though, and it’s hard to tell how Adesanya will handle Du Plessis’ unconventional style, but I think the Kiwi will get it done by decision. (Prediction: Israel Adesanya)     

Pranav Pandey: To my mind, this fight stands as a quintessential 50-50 showdown, teetering on the edge of unpredictability. We can expect some heavy strikes to fly in the opening rounds, as both fighters will be eager to assert dominance early. The outcome of this fight largely depends on the adjustments Adesanya made during his hiatus. “The Last Stylebender” is a master at maintaining range while delivering with surgical precision. However, Du Plessis’ unconventional and relentless approach, where he thrives on getting in his opponent’s face, suggests we’re going to see plenty of close-quarters exchanges. In these moments, I believe the reigning champion could leverage his power effectively.

Izzy has faced this kind of challenge time and again throughout his career, consistently emerging victorious against formidable power punchers. I’m confident he’s done his homework and won’t rush in, instead dictating the pace of the fight with his precise, calculated approach. Adesanya seems poised to wear down “Stillknocks” in the later rounds, using his signature touch-and-go point fighting. Whether it’s through a late finish or a dominant unanimous decision, I foresee “The Last Stylebender” having his hand raised on Saturday. (Prediction: Israel Adesanya)

Consensus: 5-1 Israel Adesanya

That’ll do it for our UFC 305 staff picks! What do you think? Do your picks look similar? Let us know in the comments section! Also, you can check out the full UFC 305 card below.

Main Card:

  • Middleweight Championship Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis (C) vs. Israel Adesanya
  • Flyweight Co-Main Event: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
  • Lightweight: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker
  • Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
  • Welterweight: Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates

Preliminary Card:

  • Heavyweight: Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker
  • Featherweight: Joshua Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos
  • Women’s Flyweight: Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos
  • Featherweight: Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns

Early Preliminary Card:

  • Lightweight: Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes
  • Welterweight: Song Kenan vs. Rick Glenn
  • Flyweight: Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Aguilar

Be sure to keep it right here on MMANews.com tomorrow for all the results, highlights, and updates on UFC 305!

Continue Reading UFC 305: Staff Predictions For Du Plessis vs. Adesanya, Gamrot vs. Hooker, Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik, & More at MMA News.

UFC 304: Staff Predictions For Edwards vs. Muhammad 2, Aspinall vs. Blaydes 2, Green vs. Pimblett, & More

UFC 304 is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions? The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, June 27, 2024. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary card kicks […]

Continue Reading UFC 304: Staff Predictions For Edwards vs. Muhammad 2, Aspinall vs. Blaydes 2, Green vs. Pimblett, & More at MMA News.

UFC 304 is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions?

The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, June 27, 2024. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary card kicks off at 6 PM ET.

The main event will see UFC Welterweight Champion Leon Edwards run it back with Belal Muhammad in defense of his title on home soil. The rematch comes over three years on from their UFC Fight Night headliner in 2021 ending in a no contest.

Also competing with gold on the line will be Manchester’s own Tom Aspinall, who makes a rare defense of an interim title. After capturing the heavyweight belt at the expense of Sergei Pavlovich last November, the Brit will share the cage again with Curtis Blaydes, against whom a serious knee injury saw him suffer his first UFC loss back in 2022.

Elsewhere on the main card, Paddy Pimblett will be back in action for the first time since outpointing Tony Ferguson last December and English featherweight Arnold Allen meets the striking challenge of Georgia’s Giga Chikadze. And earlier in the night, top flyweights Muhammad Mokaev and Manel Kape are set to battle for a potential title shot.

UFC 304: MMA News Staff Predictions

Ahead of Saturday’s UFC 304 event, Kyle Dimond, Ryan Jarrell, Thomas Albano, and Tyriece Simon have provided their picks for the five major matchups set for Saturday night.

Below, you can check out the current leaderboard through three cards.

  1. Thomas Albano (12-2)
  2. Tyriece Simon (11-3)
  3. Ryan Jarrell (9-5)
  4. Kyle Dimond (8-6)
  5. Andrew Starc (5-4)

And with that, it’s time for the team’s predictions for UFC 304.

Featherweight: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze

Arnold Allen, Giga Chikadze
Images: UFC/Zuffa LLC

Kyle Dimond: Chikadze is an incredibly dangerous striker but I’m not overly sold yet on his ability to compete with the best in this weight class. Allen, on the other hand, has been tested at that same level, and while he didn’t get his hand raised against Max Holloway or Movsar Evloev, he showed that he’s not far off.

The Brit has more weapons at his disposal and this will likely be key for him in this fight. Allen is a well-polished jack of all trades, but striking with Chikadze is never going to be his best route to victory. “Almighty” is disciplined enough on the feet to avoid getting caught with something massive, and through mixing in his takedowns across 15 minutes, he’ll return to the win column on home soil. (Prediction: Arnold Allen)

Ryan Jarrell: I love watching Chikadze fight. He has a fan-friendly style and can end the fight at any moment with his precise striking. But stylistically, this is a bad matchup for him. Allen is five years younger and much closer to his prime years than the Georgian is. I expect “Almighty” to dictate where the fights takes place and win a decision. (Prediction: Arnold Allen)

Thomas Albano: It’s sad that this fight is not getting the attention that it should, because it is a solid opener for a UK pay-per-view. Allen may be coming off back-to-back losses, but those were his first two defeats in the UFC, and they weren’t bad considering the guys who beat him were Holloway and Evolev. Chikadze, meanwhile, has won all but one of his fights in the Octagon, with three of his last four victories coming from highlight finishes. And his one loss? Calvin Kattar – a solid name at 145 pounds.

Considering both of these guys like to strike and bring powerful pressure, this one should be a fun way to get some early heat going for the main show. Overall, I think Allen is slightly better all-around, and I feel the younger fighter, a TriStar product, will use all of the skills in his toolbox to score a solid decision win. (Prediction: Arnold Allen)

Tyriece Simon: This matchup is my prediction to be the Fight of the Night. Both like to keep the fight on their feet and put on entertaining performances for the fans. Allen comes into the fight on a losing streak, but it was against top competition in Holloway and Evloev. I think “Almighty” will rebound against Chikadze and get back on track in the featherweight division.

The Georgian kickboxer has been out of action for nearly a year and could experience ring rust earlier in the fight. Allen also has notable grappling ability with a 50 percent takedown accuracy. The Brit could give Chikadze issues if he mixes the threat of a takedown and striking to keep his opponent guessing, which Calvin Kattar was able to do. I think Allen will use this game plan to outpace his opponent to win a decision in his home country. (Prediction: Arnold Allen)

Consensus: 4-0 Arnold Allen

Flyweight: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape

Muhammad Mokaev, Manel Kape
Images: UFC/Zuffa LLC

Kyle Dimond: The fight to potentially decide who the next flyweight title challenger should never be this low on any card. The fight is quite simple in my mind: if Mokaev takes him down and keeps him there, he wins. At the same time, I don’t see a world in which Kape loses the striking battle. I’m not confident that “Starboy” will be able to sharpshoot his way to a win here and can see Mokaev doing everything he can to grab ahold of him. Similar to the Alex Perez fight, I think “The Punisher” stays undefeated in a bit of a cagey contest (apologies for the pun) that goes the distance. (Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev)

Ryan Jarrell: We are going to find out just how good Mokaev is in this fight. One worry I do have when it comes to Kape is his inactivity. He hasn’t been as active as his undefeated opponent has been, and I wonder if that will play a factor in the fight. Mokaev is 6-0 in the UFC and 11-0 overall. He is a very dangerous fighter on the ground, and if the fight hits the mat, I think Kape is in big trouble.

Ultimately, I expect “The Punisher” to avoid the big shots from the dangerous striker and get this fight to the ground in each and every round while cruising to a somewhat boring decision victory. (Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev)

Thomas Albano: It’s awful to see how far this fight has fallen, and it makes you question what is going on behind the scenes. These two are amazing flyweight competitors, and recent events have seen the two of them get into it at the fighter hotel. My prayer at this point is that this is just a random UFC decision to boost prelims and not a weight or contractual concern.

This feels like a traditional grappler vs. striker matchup. Some people on social media have been laying it in on Mokaev, saying he’ll just sit on Kape for 15 minutes and then complain about not being next in line for a title shot. But when you have the wrestling and submission grappling background like he does, and with him knowing that he needs a big performance to convince UFC brass to give him Alexandre Pantoja next, you bet he’s going to look to take Kape down, do damage and find the tap-out as often as possible.

It’s sad various issues have prevented us from seeing all that we could of Kape in the Octagon. His punches helped lead him to a title in RIZIN, and he has the ability to test Mokaev’s chin in this one. But it feels like “The Punisher” will be ready for what Kape is going to bring from his hands – or that “Starboy” may be underestimating the grappling abilities of Mokaev, likely leading to a submission for the Brit. (Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev)

Tyriece Simon: I’m really excited about this fight, as the winner could be next in line for a title opportunity. Mokaev has leaned on his grappling ability to dominate his opponents for most of his UFC career. I believe he will have the same game plan against Kape. “Starboy” has good takedown defense, but I think he’ll have difficulty dealing with Mokaev’s grappling. Another problem can be how the weight cut will affect the former Rizin bantamweight champion. He has missed weight in the past, including a recent issue that led to his rematch against Matheus Nicolau being canceled earlier this year.

If he successfully makes weight for his fight against Mokaev, I believe Kape’s cardio might be affected by the multiple takedowns he’ll have to defend. I have “The Punisher” dominating the Angola-born Portuguese flyweight en route to either a finish or a decision victory. (Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev)

Consensus: 4-0 Muhammad Mokaev

Lightweight: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett

King Green, Paddy Pimblett
Images: UFC/Zuffa LLC

Kyle Dimond: This, along with the co-main event, is the toughest one to call for me. Pimblett has the size, power, and finishing ability to bully Green early on and overwhelm him. The issue with this is that Green is an excellent matador, and we’ve seen him time and time again just dance his way around the Octagon and light opponents up with his fast hands. “The Baddy” can be caught, but for me, it’s whether he’s able to smother Green quick enough to avoid getting tagged repeatedly. Pimblett has to make this ugly. I can see him getting his hand raised via submission in round two, but not without blood coming out of his nose first. (Prediction: Paddy Pimblett)

Ryan Jarrell: The trash talk leading into this fight will be so much fun. I expect the fight to deliver as well. We are going to find out a lot about Pimblett in the contest. Green is a tough matchup and his unusual striking could be problematic for “The Baddy.” The last person to submit Green was David Mitchell in 2009. It would be a huge feather in Pimblett’s cap to do it at UFC 304.

I don’t expect the Liverpool native to get the submission, but his best chance to win this fight is to take it to the ground and keep Green on his back. I think Pimblett will do it enough to win a close decision over the American. (Prediction: Paddy Pimblett)

Thomas Albano: After turning away a former UFC lightweight champion who is a shell of his former self in Ferguson, Pimblett now gets another step up in competition when he takes on Green. The veteran may be past his prime, but the fact he is still winning fights and staying competitive with notable contenders at 155 pounds should give him nothing short of praise. And after a controversial win over Jared Gordon in December 2022, and not seeing him again until a win (by decision, not finish, mind you) against Ferguson in December 2023, Pimblett is going to need a big performance on the British stage.

The keys to victory for this one should bring us a typical striker vs. grappler battle. Green should look to be himself, landing powerful shots – mixing them up between distance and the pocket – and defending any of Pimblett’s takedown attempts. “The Baddy,” meanwhile, should look to do some damage to make it easier to get the fight to the ground, where he has the best chance of winning. As Pimblett is the younger fighter with better movement and more upward trajectory, I’m going to side with him. But this is going to be a tall order. He needs to be locked in on fight night to put on the kind of showing that can get him back on track toward a spot in the lightweight rankings. (Prediction: Paddy Pimblett)

Tyriece Simon: Pimblett enters the fight confident that he’ll get past Green and join the lightweight rankings. He had an impressive performance over Tony Ferguson at UFC 296  last year, but most agree that “El Cucuy” isn’t the same fighter he once was. Regardless, he showed improvement in his striking and was able to outland the former interim champ. Green presents a different challenge as he has demonstrated that he is still there or thereabouts in his fighting prime and will have an overwhelming advantage on the feet.

Pimblett has had issues absorbing too many strikes and has been stunned in past fights. Green’s speed, punching power, and accuracy will be brutal for the Liverpudlian. The veteran does also boast 74 percent takedown defense accuracy, making the matchup more difficult for Pimblett. I’m unsure if Green will finish “The Baddy,” but he can outwork the fan favorite to a decision. (Prediction: King Green)

Consensus: 3-1 Paddy Pimblett

Interim UFC Heavyweight Title: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes

Images: UFC/Zuffa LLC

Kyle Dimond: I agree with the “interim” heavyweight champion that Blaydes is the toughest stylistic match-up for him in the heavyweight division. Aspinall will be too quick for him on the feet but the issue with that is the Brit is not a distance striker. He tends to stun heavyweights by reaching them with strikes by exploding into range when they think they’re outside it. To do that against “Razor” puts him in constant danger of running into a big shot or a takedown. 

I think this fight will test Aspinall. He will have difficult moments, but he’s a very smart grappler who should be able to keep himself safe if the fight hits the floor. As Blaydes’ gas tank begins to wear, I think Aspinall might build into it and get stronger. Every round starts standing, and as we’ve seen many times, the interim champion only needs a minute to find the winning punch. I expect him to find it in round three. (Prediction: Tom Aspinall)

Ryan Jarrell: Unlike the main event, this is a rematch that I am very excited about. The first fight ended the way that none of us wanted it to. Luckily enough for us, we get a rematch when both fighters are still smack in the middle of their primes. I am a huge fan of Blaydes, but unfortunately for him, he has to face the best heavyweight (in my opinion) of today’s generation. Aspinall is as well rounded as it gets, and I would be extremely surprised if he doesn’t dominate this fight and end it by way of knockout early, if not in the very first round. (Prediction: Tom Aspinall)

Thomas Albano: Like the headliners for this pay-per-view, Aspinall and Blaydes have their own form of unfinished business. We barely got to see any of their first contest, with Aspinall tearing his MCL mere seconds into the fight. Prior to his injury, the Englishman was one of the best prospects rising the ranks the UFC had, and his momentum has not stopped since returning a year ago. Aspinall used his explosive power and finishing ability, turning it into an interim title win at UFC 295. In fact, considering the ongoings of Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic, some might consider Aspinall the true champion of the UFC’s heavyweight division. But before Aspinall can look toward bigger aspirations of being undisputed champion, he has to get through the only man, injury or not, that holds a win over him in the Octagon.

Just like his fellow Chicago-born UFC title challenger at UFC 304 in Belal Muhammad, Blaydes’ wrestling is his key to victory. Though “Razor” holds devastating power like Aspinall, he also has a wrestling pedigree, holding the UFC heavyweight record for most takedowns in a fight. Like some of his previous performances, the finish of Aspinall would best come on the ground. That said, it’s going to be easier said than done against the interim champ, who will look to keep distance and land his powerful punching from there. The power may be just too much for Blaydes in this one, as Aspinall continues to be the face of the UFC’s heavyweight division – whether or not Jones is the undisputed king. (Prediction: Tom Aspinall)

Tyriece Simon: Fans should expect Aspinall to come into this matchup extra motivated to avenge his defeat to Blaydes. Their first fight lasted 15 seconds, with the interim champion injuring his knee after stepping back from landing a leg kick. I believe the fight will give fans more of a decisive winner without any doubt about who the better fighter is. That is why I lean toward Aspinall being victorious in his home country.

I think the Brit has the advantage if the fight stays standing with good head movement and hand speed. Blaydes has not relied on his grappling lately, showing his striking has improved. He also shared that he doesn’t intend to change his gameplan for the rematch, so I expect him to want to stand in front of Aspinall for a knockout. I think Blaydes’ strategy benefits Aspinall for counters that could put the challenger in trouble. If “Razor” utilizes his grappling, it could swing the momentum in his favor. But I think Blaydes will feel confident standing with the interim champion, and I believe Aspinall will catch him for a knockout. (Prediction: Tom Aspinall)

Consensus: 4-0 Tom Aspinall

UFC Welterweight Title: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad

Leon Edwards, Belal Muhammad
Images: UFC/Zuffa LLC

Kyle Dimond: Muhammad has been on a great run, but having seen Edwards deal with wrestling specialists in the past, it’s hard to see how he wins this fight. If he is able to land takedowns, I’m not sure he’ll be able to keep “Rocky” down, land damage, and do that for enough rounds to win a decision. The champion has shown that he’s excellent at chipping away at opponents without leaving himself open for being taken down, and when the likes of Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington have closed the gap on him, he’s been more than happy to test his grappling against theirs. 

Like many, I’m not expecting a particularly exhilarating fight, but the welterweight title is staying in England by way of a decision. (Prediction: Leon Edwards)

Ryan Jarrell: This is a rematch a lot of people are eagerly anticipating. I am not one of those people. I thoroughly expect Edwards to stuff takedowns and keep this fight where he wants it (on the feet) and cruise to a decision victory. The reigning welterweight champion is the better fighter, and as long as his takedown defense holds up, there is no way he loses this fight. (Prediction: Leon Edwards)

Thomas Albano: For as much as some people may not be a fan of this matchup, it always proves to be interesting when thinking about two guys who come into a bout on the kinds of win streaks like Edwards and Muhammad. “Rocky” hasn’t lost since 2015, winning the welterweight title in the spectacular fashion as he did and turning away Kamaru Usman (in a trilogy fight) and Colby Covington last year. Muhammad, meanwhile, is unbeaten since 2019. The only time neither guy hasn’t come out on top in those spans was when they fought each other to a no contest in 2021. Now, it’s time for unfinished business to be settled.

Though Muhammad’s wrestling hasn’t won him the most fans, it’s won him most of his fights. It’s the key to his success. He should look for the takedown, keep the fight on the ground, and look to overwhelm Edwards with a variety of attacks and keep him pinned to the floor. That, however, will be easier said than done when the champ has made strides in his own grappling abilities over the years. Combine that with Edwards’ kickboxing and he is just the overall more well-rounded fighter. Edwards won the sole round scored when they faced off in 2021, and perhaps that’s how this fight plays out. (Prediction: Leon Edwards)

Tyriece Simon: Edwards and Muhammad are coming into the matchup in phenomenal shape for their long-awaited rematch. In their first fight from 2021, “Rocky” overwhelmed his rival in the first round. I think Edwards has gotten better and has the skillset to give Muhammad a formidable challenge to overcome. Both like to outwork their opponents by mixing up their striking and grappling for dominant decision wins.

The Brit does have the reach advantage to utilize his jab to keep Muhammad on the outside. UFC analytics also shows that Muhammad absorbs more significant strikes than Edwards, which could be a factor as he tries to get on the inside for a takedown attempt. If the challenger gets on the inside, Edwards has good takedown defense, making putting him on the ground difficult. Fans should also expect sharp elbows from the champion if they engage in the clinch position. This fight can lean either way, but I believe Edwards will outpoint Muhammad to retain his title. (Prediction: Leon Edwards)

Consensus: 4-0 Leon Edwards

That’ll do it for our UFC 304 staff picks! What do you think? Do your picks look similar? Let us know in the comments section! Also, you can check out the full UFC 304 card below.

Main Card:

  • Welterweight Championship Main Event: Leon Edwards (C) vs. Belal Muhammad
  • Interim Heavyweight Championship Co-Main Event: Tom Aspinall (IC) vs. Curtis Blaydes
  • Lightweight: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
  • Middleweight: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
  • Featherweight: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze

Preliminary Card:

  • Featherweight: Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda
  • Women’s Strawweight: Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil
  • Bantamweight: Caolán Loughran vs. Jake Hadley
  • Light Heavyweight: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio

Early Preliminary Card:

  • Welterweight: Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons
  • Flyweight: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape
  • Welterweight: Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie
  • Heavyweight: Mick Parkin vs. ?ukasz Brzeski
  • Women’s Strawweight: Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean

Be sure to keep it right here on MMANews.com tomorrow for all the results, highlights, and updates on UFC 304!

Continue Reading UFC 304: Staff Predictions For Edwards vs. Muhammad 2, Aspinall vs. Blaydes 2, Green vs. Pimblett, & More at MMA News.

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