Greatness within reach.
On Saturday night, that hotly debated slogan penned for UFC 165 will see one of two conclusions: Either Jon Jones will decimate a similarly tall and similarly long opponent en route to his record sixth title defense, o…
Greatness within reach.
On Saturday night, that hotly debated slogan penned for UFC 165 will see one of two conclusions: Either Jon Jones will decimate a similarly tall and similarly long opponent en route to his record sixth title defense, or Alexander Gustafsson will positively shock the world by toppling the nigh unstoppable light heavyweight kingpin.
Regardless of the outcome, you’re going to want to tune in.
Factor in the epic bantamweight championship showdown between interim champ Renan Barao and Eddie Wineland and you have a fight card that’s almost guaranteed to deliver thrills.
Here’s a full breakdown of the timeline for UFC 165.
Fight Night 28 Key Stats
Jon Jones’ UFC record reach: 84.5 inches
Distance knockdown defense (“Chin”) shared by both Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson: 100 percent
Takedown defense rate shared by both Jon Jones and Khabib Nurmagomedov: 100 percent
Percent of time Jon Jones is in control when a fight hits the canvas: 99 percent
Average combined significant strikes per minute of Renan Barao and Eddie Wineland: 21.6
Matt Mitrione’s total career takedown attempts: Zero
UFC 165 takes place on Saturday night at Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, and while most of the media’s focus has been on headliner UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones, there are 25 other fighters on the card fighting this weekend that need their stories to be told, too. I can’t write about them all, but I’ve picked four fighters this weekend that you should keep an eye out for in the UFC 165 edition of Hidden Storylines.
It seems like everyone in the world that doesn’t live in Sweden is picking Jon Jones to retain his UFC light heavyweight championship against Alexander Gustafsson in the main event of UFC 165, but no one is asking what will happen if “The Mauler” pulls off the upset victory. Sure, it’s unlikely, but so was this, and it’s always foolish to count a challenger out completely.
If Gustafsson wins, it seems likely that the UFC will do an immediate rematch with Jones, even if UFC president Dana White won’t admit it. Sure, it would be nice for the UFC to have a European champion, but the truth is that Gustafsson will never be a star on Jones’s level, and it’s in the UFC’s best interest to do the rematch right away if he somehow loses.
In that sense, Gustafsson is in a bit of a no-win situation. Yes, he will be on top of the world for a few months, just like Chris Weidman is right now, but if he loses the rematch then everyone is going to think the first fight was a fluke and they wont give him the credit he deserves.
We’ll see what happens on Saturday night, but don’t expect a sudden changing of the guard at 205 if Gustafsson wins, and instead expect for the UFC to announce the rematch at the event’s post-fight press conference. As Gustafsson said himself, “I think every champion deserves a rematch.”
Does Renan Barao Become A Star With A Dominant Win?
(Seriously, Jon? You can’t take a break from Candy Crush Saga for five seconds? / Photo via Getty)
UFC 165 takes place on Saturday night at Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, and while most of the media’s focus has been on headliner UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones, there are 25 other fighters on the card fighting this weekend that need their stories to be told, too. I can’t write about them all, but I’ve picked four fighters this weekend that you should keep an eye out for in the UFC 165 edition of Hidden Storylines.
It seems like everyone in the world that doesn’t live in Sweden is picking Jon Jones to retain his UFC light heavyweight championship against Alexander Gustafsson in the main event of UFC 165, but no one is asking what will happen if “The Mauler” pulls off the upset victory. Sure, it’s unlikely, but so was this, and it’s always foolish to count a challenger out completely.
If Gustafsson wins, it seems likely that the UFC will do an immediate rematch with Jones, even if UFC president Dana White won’t admit it. Sure, it would be nice for the UFC to have a European champion, but the truth is that Gustafsson will never be a star on Jones’s level, and it’s in the UFC’s best interest to do the rematch right away if he somehow loses.
In that sense, Gustafsson is in a bit of a no-win situation. Yes, he will be on top of the world for a few months, just like Chris Weidman is right now, but if he loses the rematch then everyone is going to think the first fight was a fluke and they wont give him the credit he deserves.
We’ll see what happens on Saturday night, but don’t expect a sudden changing of the guard at 205 if Gustafsson wins, and instead expect for the UFC to announce the rematch at the event’s post-fight press conference. As Gustafsson said himself, “I think every champion deserves a rematch.”
Does Renan Barao Become A Star With A Dominant Win?
UFC interim bantamweight champion Renan Barao is on a 31-fight unbeaten streak but I guarantee you if you asked your casual UFC fan friends if they know who he is, they’ll more than likely say they’ve never heard of him, and I believe this is a huge issue the UFC needs to address.
Barao is a nasty finisher, the main training partner of UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo, and easily one of the most well-rounded pound-for-pound fighters on the planet. Yet, for some reason, there’s little buzz about this guy outside of MMA die-hards, even though he’s an absolute stud.
I’m not sure why this is, but I would guess it’s because the one time he was given any sort of significant exposure by the UFC he was one half of the main event of that horrible UFC 149 card and his dull performance there may have turned off fans for a while.
But that Urijah Faber fight was an anomaly, because other than that Barao has been nothing but a beast and if he can do the same thing he did to Brad Pickett and Michael McDonald against Eddie Wineland in the co-main event of UFC 165 then it may give him a huge boost with the casual fans who have only seen him fight Faber.
There will be a lot of people buying the card this weekend to watch Jones fight, so Barao will have a lot of eyes on him. This is a big opportunity for the 26-year-old, and if he can destroy Wineland like the betting odds suggest he will, the UFC could very well have a new star to promote. But he can’t just outpoint his opponent for the win like he did with Faber – he has to finish. And, on Satuday, we’ll see if he can do just that.
There aren’t many undefeated lightweight fighters in the UFC but one of them is fighting this weekend on the UFC 165 prelims and, if he wins, I expect him to take a serious jump up in competition in his next fight.
The fighter I’m referring to is of course Myles Jury, who takes on TUF 16 finalist Mike Ricci in what should be an exciting fight between two solid 155 pounders. But of the two fighters, I really do believe that it’s Jury who has the higher ceiling, and I think he will show exactly why he could be a future top-five lightweight, as I believe he will defeat Ricci in impressive fashion.
At 12-0 overall and with a 3-0 record in the UFC, Jury has surprisingly flown under the radar but don’t let the lack of media attention for this guy fool you, as he is one of the most underrated prospects in the division, and he could eventually make a run for the title with a little more seasoning.
Training every day with Michael Chandler and Ross Pearson at Alliance MMA in San Diego, Jury definitely has the right training partners surrounding him to give him the push he needs to reach his ceiling. He’ll take his next step to get there — at Ricci’s expense — on Saturday night.
Arguably the best lightweight prospect in Canada makes his UFC debut this Saturday night in his home province as London, Ontario’s Jesse Ronson took a short notice fight against Michel Prazeres in order to get his long-awaited shot in the UFC’s Octagon, and I am confident he is going to make the most of it.
I’ve followed Ronson’s career for years and I’ve seen him fight twice in person, against Alex Ricci and Ryan Healy in Score Fighting Series. Let me just say that there is a reason this guy is nicknamed “The Body Snatcher,” as he possesses some of the best body work in the entire lightweight division, and he showed that in the Ricci fight as he destroyed his opponent’s gut with brutal punches to the stomach.
Against Prazeres, I expect Ronson to really take it to his opponent in the standup game and I predict he’ll be celebrating a victory in his UFC debut with a dish of Brazilian liver, following a dominant performance that showcases his ability to attack his opponent’s torso.
I believe that Ronson has a very bright future and if he runs through Prazeres like I expect him to, this is a guy who could become the new Sam Stout — coincidentally, his main training partner at Adrenaline in southern Ontario — that is, an extremely exciting standup fighter who is always in the running for post-fight bonuses.
After a foot injury originally forced the fight to be cancelled at UFC 161, Renan Barao will finally take on Eddie Wineland this Saturday at UFC 165’s co-main event for the interim bantamweight title.
This fight has a lot riding on it, including a pote…
After a foot injury originally forced the fight to be cancelled at UFC 161, RenanBarao will finally take on Eddie Wineland this Saturday at UFC 165‘s co-main event for the interim bantamweight title.
This fight has a lot riding on it, including a potential fight in 2014 between the winner and a certain UFC bantamweight champion. It’s going to be an exciting one, so let’s get everyone up to speed with this preview for Saturday night’s co-main event.
Viewing Information
Where: Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
When: Saturday, September 21; main card begins at 10 p.m. ET.
How to Watch: Preliminaries on Facebook start at 6:15 p.m. ET. Undercard begins at 8 p.m. on Fox Sports 1. Main card is available on pay-per-view starting at 10 p.m.
Fighter Previews
RenanBarao
32-1 (1), 5-0 in UFC
The Brazilian fighter has been on a hot streak. He’s riding a 31-fight unbeaten run during his MMA career and is looking like the top fighter in the weight class. He has big wins against Urijah Faber, Michael McDonald and Brad Pickett.
While Barao is a solid striker, he is stronger at winning by tapout. He’s a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, which he has used to win 14 fights by submission. He also has impressive takedown defense, avoiding the takedown95 percent of the time.
The big thing to look for will be if he has fully healed from the foot injury that kept this fight from happening earlier this year. If it was a significant enough injury that he was unable to fight, it will be interesting to see if he’s truly at 100 percent.
Eddie Wineland
20-8-1, 2-2 in UFC
After a rough start to his career in the Octagon with losses in his first two bouts, Wineland has turned things around nicely.
He earned a shot at Barao because he’s been able to turn it around. He won both of his fights in 2012, beating Brad Pickett by split decision and Scott Jorgensen by a second-round knockout.
Power is one of the big strengths for Wineland, as 10 of his wins have come by knockout. He likes to focus as a striker with that power, but he also has a solid ground game that can keep him in the fight if the action drops to the mat.
He may have had a rocky beginning in the UFC, but the man who’s also a firefighter will be looking to make a big statement with a signature win against the interim champ.
Prediction
This fight is in Barao‘s favor. While Wineland has some impressive power behind his strikes, Barao negates that to a degree because he’s never been knocked out in his career.
If this fight stays on the feet, Wineland has a chance, but this is likely going to be decided on the ground. Thanks to Barao‘s fighting style, he’s going to come away with yet another submission win.
UFC 165 is set for Saturday night in the Air Canada Centre.
Jon Jones can make it a UFC light heavyweight-record sixth title defense with a win, and join an elite list with 10 straight Octagon victories. The main eventers, Jones an…
UFC 165 is set for Saturday night in the Air Canada Centre.
Jon Jones can make it a UFC light heavyweight-record sixth title defense with a win, and join an elite list with 10 straight Octagon victories. The main eventers, Jones and Alexander Gustafsson, weighed in at an identical 204.5-pounds.
Bantamweight No. 1 contender Eddie Wineland initially came in overweight, but MMAJunkie’s Mike Bohn reports that the commission made an incorrect announcement. The co-main event, a title fight for the interim UFC 135-pound strap, is now official.
Complete UFC 165 Weigh-In Results
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship: Jon Jones (204.5) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (204.5) Interim UFC Bantamweight Championship: Renan Barao (135) vs. Eddie Wineland (135)
Brendan Schaub (237) vs. Matt Mitrione (260.5) Costa Philippou (186) vs. Francis Carmont (186) Pat Healy (155.75) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (156) Mike Ricci (155.5) vs. Myles Jury (156) Ivan Menjivar (136) vs. Wilson Reis (135) Chris Clements (169.5) vs. Stephen Thompson (170.5) Mitch Gagnon (136) vs. Dustin Kimura (136) John Makdessi (155) vs. Renee Forte (155.5) Jesse Ronson (155.5) vs. Michel Prazeres (155) Roland Delorme (136) vs. Alex Caceres (136) Nandor Guelmino (230) vs. Daniel Omielanczuk (245.5)
(Alright BJ, now that you’ve kicked your training camp up a notch, it’s time to fire your dietician.)
Before B.J. Penn joined the UFC and became a multi-division champion and future hall of famer, he received his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu from Nova Uniao’s head coach, Andre Pederneiras. Now, as Penn plans his come back fight against Frankie Edgar in 2014, the fighter has asked Pederneiras to help prepare him.
Pederneiras coaches featherweight champion Jose Aldo, so he has experience preparing for Edgar. “We’ve studied Edgar’s game a lot for Aldo’s fight,” he said, according to MMA Fighting‘s Guilherme Cruz.
“So I believe there’s no better place and sparring’s better for B.J. to come back in great fashion and motivated.”
Details are not official but Pederneiras says that he wants Penn to conduct his training camp in Rio where he can train with the likes of Aldo and bantamweight champion Renan Barao. This is an interesting piece of news, though it may be premature to assume anything about what Penn will do just yet.
First off, we were under the impression that Penn was told he’d get a chance to fight for the featherweight title if he were to beat Edgar, as they are doing the bout at 145 pounds. Their first two fights were lightweight title affairs. That seemed dubious at first precisely because of Penn’s connection to Aldo’s Nova Uniao’s team. It seems unlikely that Pederneiras would prepare Penn to become the #1 contender to his prize pupil’s title.
(Alright BJ, now that you’ve kicked your training camp up a notch, it’s time to fire your dietician.)
Before B.J. Penn joined the UFC and became a multi-division champion and future hall of famer, he received his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu from Nova Uniao’s head coach, Andre Pederneiras. Now, as Penn plans his come back fight against Frankie Edgar in 2014, the fighter has asked Pederneiras to help prepare him.
Pederneiras coaches featherweight champion Jose Aldo, so he has experience preparing for Edgar. “We’ve studied Edgar’s game a lot for Aldo’s fight,” he said, according to MMA Fighting‘s Guilherme Cruz.
“So I believe there’s no better place and sparring’s better for B.J. to come back in great fashion and motivated.”
Details are not official but Pederneiras says that he wants Penn to conduct his training camp in Rio where he can train with the likes of Aldo and bantamweight champion Renan Barao. This is an interesting piece of news, though it may be premature to assume anything about what Penn will do just yet.
First off, we were under the impression that Penn was told he’d get a chance to fight for the featherweight title if he were to beat Edgar, as they are doing the bout at 145 pounds. Their first two fights were lightweight title affairs. That seemed dubious at first precisely because of Penn’s connection to Aldo’s Nova Uniao’s team. It seems unlikely that Pederneiras would prepare Penn to become the #1 contender to his prize pupil’s title.
Sure, Edgar already made the move down but Penn is still the major drawing name in this match up and if he wants to fight at lightweight, we’re betting the UFC will accommodate him. Now, there’s no reason that the 5’9 Penn couldn’t make 145 pounds simply by living healthy, dieting down slightly and cutting a little water weight right before the fight.
Heck, there’s no reason Penn couldn’t have done that his entire career. But he never did.
For whatever reason, probably because he is good enough to get away with it, Penn never thought it necessary to do what most other fighters do and that is eat well to stay around a weight that would allow them to fight in a weight class where they are best suited. Instead, he fought at lightweight, welterweight, middleweight and heavyweight.
Is Penn committed enough to do what is necessary to fight at featherweight now, in his mid-thirties? Perhaps.
He doesn’t have anything to prove and has taken a lot of damage throughout his career, so this writer is still not on board with the idea of him coming back to begin with. More cynical members of the CP staff are dubious that this fight will materialize at all, regardless the weight it is supposed to be contested at (Ed note: But especially at featherweight.)
Do you think the TUF curse will catch up with either Edgar or Penn, nation? And do you think that Penn will overcome the poi curse that has afflicted him throughout his career and make featherweight?
On a related note, does anyone know where a brotha can get some good poi in the Midwest?
This Saturday night, a light heavyweight title fight is going down between the division’s long-standing champion and a really tall Swede that the UFC desperately wants you to believe stands a chance at beating said champion. Not that we’re counting Alexander Gustafsson completely out of his fight with JBJ, it’s just…well…we’ve already gone over that.
In any case, UFC 165 actually offers a handful of fights that aren’t as one-sided as Blind Mike Tyson vs. a dartboard, so join us after the jump as we break down a couple of the undercard bouts and the entire main card in the hopes of scoring you Taters some fast cash with absolute minimal effort. All betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.
Caceres is the slight favorite here and has looked impressive (maybe due to elevated levels of “irie”) since his drop to bantamweight, using his size and reach — sometimes a little wild — to his advantage. Delorme is floating around +120 territory and while he may not have the tools to finish Caceres or even outpoint the former Team GSP member, he certainly is well rounded enough to push this fight to the cards. +110 prop that this fight goes the distance is a nice value as the Canadian underdog is surely not going to go away easy in this fight.
This Saturday night, a light heavyweight title fight is going down between the division’s long-standing champion and a really tall Swede that the UFC desperately wants you to believe stands a chance at beating said champion. Not that we’re counting Alexander Gustafsson completely out of his fight with JBJ, it’s just…well…we’ve already gone over that.
In any case, UFC 165 actually offers a handful of fights that aren’t as one-sided as Blind Mike Tyson vs. a dartboard, so join us after the jump as we break down a couple of the undercard bouts and the entire main card in the hopes of scoring you Taters some fast cash with absolute minimal effort. All betting lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.
Caceres is the slight favorite here and has looked impressive (maybe due to elevated levels of “irie”) since his drop to bantamweight, using his size and reach — sometimes a little wild — to his advantage. Delorme is floating around +120 territory and while he may not have the tools to finish Caceres or even outpoint the former Team GSP member, he certainly is well rounded enough to push this fight to the cards. +110 prop that this fight goes the distance is a nice value as the Canadian underdog is surely not going to go away easy in this fight.
Jesse Ronson (-160) vs. Michel Prazeres (+140)
File this under the “Good Dog” category, as the 16-1 Brazilian Prazeres is the most notable underdog on the preliminary card. Michel was overwhelmed in his UFC debut against Paulo Thiago but he showed that he can hang in there against UFC-level talent, something Ronson has yet to show. At -160, Ronson is just as risky a pick when factoring in “Octagon jitters” and the talent gap between the UFC and other organizations. Prazeres as a secondary parlay option or single bet my be a dog worth taking.
In keeping with the CagePotato traditions of old, I would have to assign a “Stay the Hell Away From” status to this fight from a gambler’s perspective. Khabib is a stud, but at -250 against another bulldozer like Healy is simply too risky. Healy at +205 against the sambo expert who has an underrated stand up game may be the proverbial carrot dangling in front of the donkey, as we have yet to see the Eagle dominated or controlled by his opponent inside the Octagon. The best option would be the -170 prop that this fight goes the distance, as it may very well involve lots of cage work and scrambling on the ground.
At -185, Philippou is parlay bound and perhaps the best line offered on the entire card. Carmont’s last two wins inside the Octagon have been controversial decisions to competition who have not cracked the top 10 in the division. Costa is a potential contender right now who is able to stop the takedown and use his excellent striking to break down his opponents. Philippou proved in his fight with Boetsch that he will not be overpowered and that he can hit hard enough to put away some of the top competition that the 185 division has to offer. Costa -185 makes the parlay.
Meathead is the small -120 favorite against the Hybrid, who promises to teach his buddy what martial arts is all about. A brief numbers crunch suggests that this fight will end via a (T)KO for Mitrione, with 5 out of his 6 wins coming via KO and 3 of Schaub’s losses coming via exactly that. Schaub used his ground game to keep Lavar Johnson at bay and Mitrione has shown some weakness with grappling exchanges (against Cheick Kongo, of all people), but the fact that Schaub is vulnerable to the KO at all times tilts the odds in Matt’s favor here. Mitrione to win at -120 is a pick’em worth, uh, picking.
Wowza. Placing any money on a straight bet here is rather ludicrous, so the most alluring option may be the prop bet that Barao is able to submit Wineland (currently residing around +135) due to the fact that the former WEC champ has proven vulnerable to the takedown/submission over the course of his career. Barao is often content to keep his fights standing, but much like Pickett, Wineland is a forward moving fighter who likes to press his opponent. Barao to submit Wineland +135 prop bet.
Jones at -1000 means u better bring the brinks truck if you want to make money simply picking the alpha 205’er to walk away the winner on Saturday night. Gustafsson is certainly as big as Jones, but far less skilled on the ground compared to the competition Jones has faced/dominated as of late. Gustafsson’s best chance comes with keeping this fight standing, something I believe he can do in the early stages of the fight, not so much because he wants to, but that Jones will be looking to beat Gustafsson where he is best (like he did with Chael on the ground). Ultimately the prop that this fight will start the 3rd round for -155 is a decent price, I guess if you believe Jones will entertain striking with Gustaffson for the first two rounds before he looks to close the fight out.
Parlay 1
-Philippou + Omielanczuk
Parlay 2
-Philippou + Prazeres
Props
-Caceres/Delorme fight goes the distance
-Healy/Nurmagomedov fight goes the distance
-Barao wins via submission
-Gustafsson/Jones fight starts round 3
Greatness within reach.
