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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks’ Edition

(JUST TAKE MY MONEY ALREADY!! Image via Adam Doyle.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

With a win over Johny Hendricks this weekend, welterweight kingpin Georges St. Pierre will break *three* UFC records: Most UFC wins ever (!), Most title bout wins ever (!!) and dependent on how long the fight lasts, most octagon hours logged ever (meh). It’s an intriguing prospect to say the least, and a fight that headlines a card stacked to the brim with equally intriguing prospects and matchups.

But you don’t care about octagon records or intriguing prospects, you care about money. Cash. Doubloons. “A whole lotta Kale chips,” if you know what I’m saying. That’s where we come in, delivering the pound-for-pound best gambling advice week after week after tireless week. So join us after the jump to sneak a peek at the UFC 167 gambling lines (courtesy of BestFightOdds) and get in on more gambling advice than your broke ass will even know what to do with.

Stay the Hell Away From:

Josh Koscheck (-105) vs. Tyron Woodley (-115)

Koscheck is looking to avoid losing his third straight while Woodley will be trying to avoid going 1-3 in his last four bouts. The skill sets of both fighters here are very similar — strong wrestlers who often opt for a stand up affair — hence the almost even odds here. But in a game of tag where both fighters have found success (coupled with Fraggle’s penchant for his signature eye poke), picking a winner at the window is a true coin flip. Skip it.

(JUST TAKE MY MONEY ALREADY!! Image via Adam Doyle.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Stay the Hell Away From:

Josh Koscheck (-105) vs. Tyron Woodley (-115)

The Good Dogs:

Brian Ebersole (+180) vs. Rick Story (-220)

Ebersole coming in at +180 is a great line and possibly overgenerous when taking into account that Brian’s last loss came on short notice. That he’s been battling injuries ever since is not the most confidence-inspiring aspect of this fight, but Ebersole is still worth taking a risk on with a full training camp under his belt. Story was a world beater at one point but has gone 2-4 over his past six fights. In a bout that has a high probability of going the distance, Ebersole may be able to employ a grappling centric approach to nullify Story and get a decision win.

Erik Perez (-355) vs. Edwin Figueroa (+295)

Perez is the heavy favorite at -330 and it may be safe to say Figueroa is fighting for a job. The prop bet that this fight goes to decision is +120 and worth the investment, as Figueroa has only been finished once in his career and has gone the distance in 3 of his 5 UFC appearances. Perez is coming off a loss in his toughest test thus far, a decision loss to Takeya Mizugaki at Fight Night 27, while Edwin has shown he can go the distance with one of the best the division has to offer in Michael McDonald. +120 fight goes the distance.

Donald Cerrone (-115) vs. Evan Dunham (-105)

Cerrone is the very slight favorite here, but with a -195 prop that the fight goes the distance, I suggest placing two equally small amount wagers on either fighter to win by decision as a decent risk-reward option. Like the last card, this fight jumps off the page with regards to FOTN and should pay out at about +500 should it obtain that honor, making it too hard to pass up. If it is half as exciting as Sanchez vs. Melendez, that should be good enough to get the nod from Dana.

Tim Elliott (-155) vs. Ali Bagautinov (+135)

I might be in the minority here, but +135 for Bagautinov to couple his sambo background with a Greg Jackson game plan seems all too good to pass up. Elliott is the more experienced fighter and will not be held down for three rounds, but may be worried about this prospect more so than his opponent. If Bagautinov can mix up his attack like Dodson did against Elliott, he may find a way to stifle Elliott’s offense en route to a decision win. Elliott will try to earn respect early with a well timed combination and the confidence he gains could turn this fight into another solid back and forth FOTN candidate as well. +120 Bagautinov wins.

Other Main Card Bouts:

Rory MacDonald (-350) vs. Robbie Lawler (+290)

Since returning to the UFC ‘s 170-pound division, Robbie has finished both of his fights in impressive fashion and seems to be primed for one last run towards a title shot. Standing in Lawler’s way is the heavy favorite and GSP protégé Rory MacDonald, who many believe is simply too strong for Lawler to handle. This fight may play out like Larkin vs. Lawler, where Larkin’s diverse striking and effective G-n-P eventually lead to a decision win for Lorenz. Larkin is a 185er and as time goes on McDonald may be as well, so look for McDonald to use his reach, be first, and keep Robbie guessing at a distance.

Rashad Evans (-190) vs. Chael Sonnen (+165)

Floating around -200, Rashad makes the parlay. While Evans has shown some inconsistencies in his game as of late, one thing he has always proved is that he will not be out grappled by his opponent. Chael definitely is a high-level wrestler, a true threat to take Rashad down, but as we saw against Jones, is also not immune to being controlled on the ground by a talented/bigger grappler either. Rashad can win this fight both standing and on the mat; Chael really is not known for his striking prowess and will have to be the first fighter to dominate Rashad on the ground if he is to win. Rashad makes the parlay with more ways to win and the assumption that he is a better wrestler than Chael.

Georges St. Pierre (-270) vs. Johny Hendricks (+230)

Johny Hendricks will be bringing the most devastating left hand the WW division has to offer against *the* best the WW division has to offer. Johny is also being touted as the best wrestler GSP has ever fought, a slight against Matt Hughes perhaps, but maybe true nonetheless. The problem is, what if Johnny is the best wrestler GSP has ever faced and he still gets taken down by Georges at will like Hughes, Koscheck and Fitch? What if GSP favors footwork and one of the most underrated jabs (Freddie Roach inspired) in MMA to create enough distance to keep the fight standing and outside of Hendricks striking range?

The one caveat is that GSP’s most recent loss stemmed from a well-placed punch, and there’s no arguing that Johny Hendricks can do more with one punch than most. GSP was also caught clock watching a little over halfway into his last fight with Diaz, but Johnny is not renowned for exploiting his opponent’s cardio like Nick is. GSP should be able to do what GSP does, find a way to get the fight where he wants it to be and keep it there for 25 minutes. GSP to win -270.

Parlay 1
Leites-Evans

Parlay 2
Leites-MacDonald-GSP

Parlay 3
Evans-Ebersole

GIF-Ranking the ‘UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks’ Main Card Fights By Interest Level

(If there was ever a time for GSP and Anderson Silva to form a 90’s R&B group, it is now.)

Despite the UFC’s best efforts to protect their pretty boy welterweight champion (SARCASM), Georges St. Pierre will in fact be facing top contender Johny Hendricks at UFC 167 this weekend. The fight headlines what is primed to be one of the UFC’s more stacked cards of the year (*fingers crossed*), which isn’t saying much when considering the cards that have preceded it, but still.

In any case, we’re not always the Debbie Downers you guys make us out to be, so we decided to rank the UFC 167 main card fights using only the power of optimism and the almighty gif. Enjoy.

#5 – Rashad Evans vs. Chael Sonnen

In terms of pure drawing power, it makes sense that Sonnen vs. Evans would find itself as the co-main event of the evening. But when we step back and consider what a win would mean for either fighter in terms of their division, it becomes a significantly less intriguing fight to say the least. (Ed note: I know, it’s not exactly the “glass half full” mentality we were hoping to establish, but baby steps, you guys.)

Simply put, both Sonnen and Evans have done about as much as they can do at 205 lbs: they’ve fought and been dominated by Jon Jones, they’ve picked up wins over aging legends in recent bouts, and they stand about a snowball’s chance in hell of receiving another title shot. Not that every fight needs to be a “#1 contender bout” to interest us, but throw in the fact that Sonnen was already supposed to have returned to middleweight after fighting Shogun, that Evans is coming off a pair of less-than-entertaining affairs and that these guys are friends/co-hosts and you’ve got all the ingredients for a snoozer.

Oh yeah, and Sonnen has admitted that he isn’t exactly thrilled to be fighting Evans in the first place. When The American Gangster can’t even muster up the energy to throw a slightly racist death threat his opponent’s way, look out, brother. Official Ranking:

(If there was ever a time for GSP and Anderson Silva to form a 90′s R&B group, it is now.)

In any case, we’re not always the Debbie Downers you guys make us out to be, so we decided to rank the UFC 167 main card fights using only the power of optimism and the almighty gif. Enjoy.

#5 – Rashad Evans vs. Chael Sonnen

#4 – Tim Elliot vs. Ali Bagautinov

While it’s somewhat surprising that a fight between two relatively unknown (albeit talented) flyweights would be bumped to the PPV portion of the card over the guaranteed barnburner that is Donald Cerrone vs. Evan Dunham, our expectations are still pretty high for this bout. Elliot has looked as formidable as any flyweight out there in his victories over Louis Gaudinot and Jared Papazian — the latter of which earned him a FOTN bonus — and was barely edged out by former title challenger John Dodson in his promotional debut. He also KO’d Jens Pulver in 28 seconds back in 2011, but we won’t hold that against him.

As for Bagautinov, well…he has only fought once in the UFC (at Fight Night 28), where he KO’d Marcus Vinicius in the third round after being dominated in the first. He’s also Russian, which means he has a granite chin and is perpetually fueled by despair. This fight has the potential to be a truly overlooked scrap, but we’ve also seen promising fighters choke under the brights lights of their first PPV fight time and time again, so let’s give this fight a tentative Official Ranking of:

#3 – Josh Koscheck vs. Tyron Woodley

Can anyone explain what the hell has happened to Josh Koscheck: Master Troll? It used to be that a week couldn’t go by without the guy calling us media types “retards” or publicly wishing that his former teammates would all die in a fire, yet we haven’t heard a peep from him in what feels like ages. It could be that he’s dropped his past two fights, it could be that he’s been battling injuries for the better part of 2013, but damn it, we’re starting to miss the brash, overconfident, ass-motorboating Josh Koscheck of old. Which is why we’re relatively excited to see him return to the cage this Saturday against Woodley.

Both Koscheck and Woodley hail from wrestling backgrounds and have shown that they can knock a motherfucker out when need be, so we’re hoping that this fight turns into a good old fashioned banger once they have soundly negated each other’s grappling attacks. I can’t believe I’m typing this, but I’m actually pulling for Koscheck to score a big KO here. Although he’ll never be in the title picture as long as St. Pierre is around, there’s no denying that Fraggle Rock still has some fight left in him. Official Ranking:

#2 – Georges St. Pierre vs. Johny Hendricks

What’s that, you say? St. Pierre is fighting a heavy-handed brawler with a solid wrestling base? No. Fucking. Way. WILL HE HAVE TO GO TO HIS “DARK PLACE” (for reals this time) TO DEFEAT A FIGHTER UNLIKE ANYONE HE HAS EVER FACED BEFORE, YOU GUYS? TELL ME MORE ABOUT THIS “PUNCHER’S CHANCE” YOU SPEAK OF!!

Don’t get us wrong, we’re as excited to see St. Pierre vs. Hendricks as we were for any of St. Pierre’s recent fights, but we all know how this fight is going to go down. St. Pierre via decision (50-45, 50-45, 48-43). Don’t even act like that last score is not a possibility given the quality of today’s MMA judges. Official Ranking:

#1 – Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler

Out with the old, in with the new. It’s as simple as that.

There have been rumors floating around that St. Pierre might just retire following his inevitable victory over Hendricks this weekend, rumors that were started by St. Pierre’s own mentor, no less. While we’re not biting hook, line and sinker (more on this later), it’s become quite apparent that St. Pierre is looking to pass the torch to his understudy/everyone’s favorite serial-killer-in-training, Rory MacDonald.

It’s not hard to see why. MacDonald has looked absolutely outstanding in 6 of his 7 octagon appearances, dominating former champion BJ Penn, former prospect Che Mills and Mike Pyle among others. That he’s on the heels of his lone disappointing appearance against Jake Ellenberger at UFC on FOX 8 (which he still walked away from with a victory) will only serve as motivation for MacDonald to skin Robbie Lawler alive and wear him as a suit come Saturday night.

On the other hand, Lawler has experienced something of a career resurgence since re-entering the UFC, KO’ing Josh Koscheck and Bobby Voelker in back-to-back appearances. Lawler will be riding some serious momentum into the octagon on Saturday and will surely be looking to capitalize on the lack of pressure being placed on his shoulders against a hype monster like MacDonald. And if by chance, he is able to knock out Rory, expect the interwebs to respond as such…

You know what? Let’s just declare that as our Official Ranking for this fight, because I’ve been looking at it for almost a half hour straight and cannot stop laughing.

How would you rank these fights in terms of pure excitement, Potato Nation? Give us a holler in the comments section.

–J. Jones

Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler Booked for UFC 167 in November

(You almost feel bad for Koscheck. Almost. / Photo via Getty)

UFC officials announced last night that the Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler matchup that Dana White liked so much has been formally booked. The two dangerous welterweights will face off at UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks, November 16th in Las Vegas.

Just like the GSP/Hendro main event, MacDonald vs. Lawler pits an athletically gifted Canadian phenom against an American southpaw with dynamite in his fists. Our prediction: Robbie Lawler knocks out GSP in a short-notice replacement fight after MacDonald and Hendricks are both injured while warming up backstage before the event. We’re actually willing to bet money on that, but you have to give us +150,000 odds. (Alternate prediction: Hendricks misses weight by over 20 pounds.)

MacDonald is riding a five-fight win streak in the Octagon, most recently earning a decision win in a snoozefest against Jake Ellenberger at UFC on FOX 8. Lawler is 2-0 since returning to the UFC as a welterweight, scoring knockouts of Josh Koscheck and Bobby Voelker.

(You almost feel bad for Koscheck. Almost. / Photo via Getty)

Dana White “Likes” the Idea of Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald (And So Do We)

(White, seen here liking the idea of that thing we just told you about.)

Ahh, the Dana White post-fight media scrum, where fighters big and small are heralded for their gutsy performances inside the octagon or (rightfully) raked over the coals for the game of pattycake they played earlier in the evening. Tis truly the UFC’s answer to a “performance review.” Indeed. And for the reporters brave enough to withstand this gauntlet of guffaws, this marathon of misinformation? Surely the treasure that is insider info lies in store.

Take this potential nugget of knowledge, for instance, which was dropped by DW during the aforementioned Fight Night 26 media scrum over the weekend. When Matt Brown defeated Mike Pyle by murder as I predicted he would, “the media” jumped on the idea of a potential slugfest between Brown and Robbie Lawler next. Palms got sweaty, pants got tighter — you know the deal. His Whiteness was quick to shoot the matchup down, however, commenting that “he liked” the idea of Lawler instead facing perennial contender and collector of human flesh masks Rory MacDonald next, although he had no location or date for the potential fight in mind.

Lawler is coming off back-to-back KO’s of Josh Koscheck and Bobby Voelker, whereas MacDonald was last seen eeking out a unanimous decision in a snoozer over Jake Ellenberger at UFC on FOX 8, his fifth straight in the UFC. Do you like this fight, Potato Nation, or will MacDonald’s wrestling pedigree spell the end to Lawler’s dynamite second run in the UFC?

–J. Jones

(White, seen here liking the idea of that thing we just told you about.)

–J. Jones

UFC Plans Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler Fight but No Date or Location Yet

Rory MacDonald won’t get the matchup he’s been requesting for his next fight, but he certainly has a tall order on his hands.
The Canadian welterweight had been asking the UFC for a second shot at top-three fighter Carlos Condit after he lost to him ju…

Rory MacDonald won’t get the matchup he’s been requesting for his next fight, but he certainly has a tall order on his hands.

The Canadian welterweight had been asking the UFC for a second shot at top-three fighter Carlos Condit after he lost to him just a few years ago at UFC 115 in a brutal TKO, which accounts for his only professional loss as a fighter.

Condit is awaiting his fight when he takes on Martin Kampmann at UFC Fight Night 27 in Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Aug. 28, so in the meantime, the UFC has opted to move forward with another bout for MacDonald.

MacDonald will now face knockout artist Robbie Lawler in a welterweight showdown later this year, although a date and location have not been named for the newly confirmed bout.

UFC president Dana White confirmed the fight when speaking to reporters after the conclusion of the UFC Fight Night 26 post-fight press conference on Saturday evening.

“We like that fight. I think so yeah,” White said when asked if MacDonald vs. Lawler was going to happen.

White did say “no” when asked if the UFC had a date or location planned for the welterweight bout.

Lawler has been on fire since coming back to the UFC earlier this year, which marked nearly nine years between appearances in the promotion.

The former Strikeforce fighter dropped back down to welterweight once he returned to the UFC and made an immediate impact in his return when he knocked out former title contender Josh Koscheck at UFC 157.

He then looked just as impressive in his second fight where he landed a thunderous head kick to finish off Bobby Voelker at UFC on Fox 8 in July.

Now Lawler will take another step forward in the division when he takes on a top-three ranked welterweight in MacDonald.

There are several possibilities in terms of which show a fight between MacDonald and Lawler could land on this year. The UFC has already filled out the schedule for pay-per-views and main events all the way through the end of December 2013, but there are plenty of spots to fill for upcoming UFC Fight Night cards on Fox Sports 1.

The UFC has committed to several shows that will take place on Wednesday nights throughout the fall and winter months, and a MacDonald vs. Lawler bout could be the perfect fight to fill one of the main event slots.

Whatever show it ends up on, MacDonald vs. Lawler will have a definite impact on the welterweight rankings, with both fighters gunning for title contention in the next 12 months.

Damon Martin is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, and all quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

Rory MacDonald vs Robbie Lawler Head-to-Toe Breakdown

Dana White, the UFC president, was open about his plans for Rory MacDonald after his most recent performance. In an interview with Ariel Helwani, White mentioned that he wants to pit MacDonald against Robbie Lawler.
Both welterweights were involved at …

Both welterweights were involved at UFC on Fox 8, and each man walked away with solid wins. Lawler looked most impressive with a headkick KO over Bobby Voelker. MacDonald’s performance left something to be desired, but the No. 3-ranked welterweight defeated No. 4-ranked Jake Ellenberger regardless.

Lawler, the No. 9-ranked welterweight, maintained his ranking with the win.

If the plan for MacDonald vs. Lawler pans out we will be treated to another top-10 welterweight clash with significant title implications on the line. Should the fight come to fruition, this is how the 170-pound scrap breaks down.

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