Saturday night, June 11th, 2011 at The Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, top heavyweight contenders Junior Dos Santos and Shane Carwin will meet head to head to see who will be granted a shot to face current champion Cain Velasquez at a later date for the UFC Heavyweight Championship of the World.
This is a huge opportunity for Shane Carwin, who is fighting for the first time in 11 months due to back surgery. Carwin was originally slated to face Jon-Olav Einemo, but with Brock Lesnar having another bout of diverticulitus, he was then granted the chance to face Dos Santos for the No. 1 contendership.
Carwin has focused more on his strength and conditioning as well as his diet compared to past fights. He weighed in at 254 lbs and appeared to feel much better compared to his last fight against Lesnar. With this new diet plan and loss of weight, will this increase his stamina and boost his level of speed? That is the main question that will be answered tomorrow night.
Junior Dos Santos was originally supposed to face Velasquez for the championship, but since Cain is injured and will not be cleared to return until October, he decided to stay active and take a fight. This fight landed him a shot to be a coach on the Ultimate Fighter TV series and has really boosted his popularity amongst the American fanbase.
Dos Santos weighed in at 239 lbs, and he always appears to be in top notch shape. He is very good a pacing his punches so that he does not gas out in his fights. His fight with Carwin is a “who has a better chin kinda fight.”
Both men appear to be ready for the spotlight, but the big question is: Who has the best chance of defeating Velasquez?
Right now is the perfect time to be in the position that Dos Santos and Carwin are in. Not only do both men have an opportunity for a chance to face Velasquez for the title, but also Cain is coming off of a serious shoulder injury and he may not be 100 percent going into the title fight.
If Carwin defeats Dos Santos, this will be huge for him. He has a wrestling background, but prefers to stand and trade because well he has some very heavy hands. He cuts his opponents off and lands that big shot and usually when he does the fight is over in the next five seconds.
Does Carwin have a chance like that against Velasquez? In all truths, Carwin would have to be reserved in this fight. He would need to use his strength to his advantage, as well as his wrestling base. Would he try to wrestle with Cain? Odds are no, but it depends on how he wants to reserve his cardio and sometimes a take down is a must.
Carwin’s one-punch knockout power is what makes him stick out. It is not that he is technical, but it is the fact that he always finds a way to hit you. How good of a chin does Cain have? That is a big question, he was rocked in the third round by Kongo, and Carwin hits a lot harder than Kongo.
So, in honest truth, Carwin’s best chance against Cain is getting inside and landing one of those power shots. If that happens, then there is no question that Shane Carwin can defeat Cain Velasquez.
Junior Dos Santos is a very talented striker. His technicality plus power makes him really stick out when you watch him fight. His takedown defense appears to be very solid, but it has never been tested against a top notch wrestler. He is a BJJ Brown Belt under the Nogueira Brothers, so odds are on the ground he is no slouch.
On the feet, Dos Santos has the advantage, but Velasquez is also skilled on the feet. Dos Santos would win the exchanges, but odds are Velasquez would go for takedowns, and this is where we find out how good Junior’s TDD really is.
Velasquez has the advantage in the wrestling department, but in the jiu-jitsu realm, it is virtually even, with both having a brown belt.
So, what would it take for Dos Santos to defeat Velasquez? He would need to utilize the stand up and avoid Cain’s takedowns. This fight has all of the makings for a chess match, and in all truths, if Dos Santos can pick his shots, he could finish Cain.
So, now that being said: Who has the better advantage against Velasquez?
This is a tough one to call. In a short fight, Carwin has the clear advantage, but in the later rounds is where Dos Santos would shine.
The wrestling is what really sticks out when you think about this fight. That being said, Dos Santos is the better striker and has all of the tools to be the best heavyweight in the world. He can also end a fight at any moment, and it is hard to match up with his striking.
So Junior Dos Santos is the man to beat Cain Velasquez.
Prediction for UFC 131: Junior Dos Santos via second-round knockout.
Make your picks below.
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All 24 fighters expected at The Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada for 
