UFC 139 Predictions

Filed under: UFCWill Dan Henderson make a statement in his return to the UFC that he deserves to contend for the light heavyweight belt? Or will Shogun Rua beat Henderson and make a case that he should get another crack at Jon Jones? Can Cung Le thrill…

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Shogun RuaWill Dan Henderson make a statement in his return to the UFC that he deserves to contend for the light heavyweight belt? Or will Shogun Rua beat Henderson and make a case that he should get another crack at Jon Jones? Can Cung Le thrill the fans in his UFC debut, or will Wanderlei Silva pick up a much-needed win? Will Urijah Faber or Brian Bowles take a big step toward a rematch with bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz?

We’ll examine those questions and more as we predict the winners of Saturday night’s UFC 139 pay-per-view.

What: UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson

When: Saturday, the Facebook preliminary fights start at 6 p.m. ET, the Spike card starts at 8 and the pay-per-view starts at 9.

Where: HP Pavilion, San Jose

Predictions on the five pay-per-view fights below.




Maurício “Shogun” Rua vs. Dan Henderson
Henderson left Strikeforce and its light heavyweight belt behind after beating Fedor Emelianenko, and now he’ll try to prove that he deserves a shot at the UFC light heavyweight championship. If he beats Rua, he’d have an excellent case that he deserves to challenge the winner of the upcoming Jones-Lyoto Machida light heavyweight title fight, although Rashad Evans has been waiting for a light heavyweight title shot for a long time, so Henderson may have to get in line.

However, I think it’s going to be a moot point, because I think Rua has the right striking style to frustrate Henderson standing up, and I think he’ll be just good enough on the ground to avoid getting controlled on the canvas by Henderson, who’s a vastly superior wrestler. I like Shogun to win an action-packed fight by decision.
Pick: Rua

Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le
I’ve always enjoyed the aesthetic beauty of Le’s san shou style of striking, but I’ve never believed it would be effective against a top-notch opponent. And so I think the result of this fight hangs mostly on whether Silva is, at this point in his career, even close to “top-notch” anymore.

So is he? Based on the way the Axe Murderer looked against Chris Leben, I’d have to say no: Silva buckled the first time he was hit hard and was knocked out in just 27 seconds. Silva is 2-6 in his last eight fights, and four of those six losses have been ugly knockouts, and so I’m going to lean toward Le to win this one, just because I think Silva has taken so much damage through his spectacular career that he just doesn’t have a lot left.
Pick: Le

Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles
Faber is another fighter who has had a long and spectacular career but has begun to decline lately: He was 21-1 in his first 22 fights, but has gone just 4-4 in his last eight. However, Faber’s only losses have been to featherweight and bantamweight champions, and he has looked awfully good while winning, too. Bowles is a terrific fighter who has bounced back from serious hand and foot injuries to win two in a row, but Faber has such good wrestling and such a diverse style of striking that he should be able to dictate where the fight goes and win a decision.
Pick: Faber

Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story
This is a very interesting fight between two guys who are right on the cusp of the welterweight Top 10 but who are coming off disappointing losses. Story’s wrestling might just be enough for him to control Kampmann for 15 minutes and win a decision, but Kampmann has more ways to win, with a good striking game and varied submissions.
Pick: Kampmann

Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury
This isn’t a great matchup — neither of these guys is even close to the top of the light heavyweight division — but it does have the potential to be an entertaining brawl. Bonnar is a fan favorite riding a two-fight winning streak, but Kingsbury is a better technical striker and should beat Bonnar.
Pick: Kingsbury

 

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Dan Henderson Looking to Get His Fourth-Straight KO Victory Against “Shogun” Rua

Dan Henderson vs Fedor Emelianenko Strikeforce
(Fedor Emelianenko bows to Dan Henderson’s superior firepower at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson in July. Photo props: Cagewriter)

By Joey Santosus

With 13 of his 28 professional victories coming by some form of knockout, it’s no secret what one can expect from Dan Henderson when he steps into the cage. In fact, he’s finished his last three opponents via stoppage, and according to his striking coach Gustavo Pugliese, he’ll be looking to make it four straight when he meets Mauricio “Shogun” Rua on November 19th…

Visit Lowkick.Blitzcorner.com to read about Hendo’s game-plan for his Octagon return next month.

Dan Henderson vs Fedor Emelianenko Strikeforce
(Fedor Emelianenko bows to Dan Henderson’s superior firepower at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson in July. Photo props: Cagewriter)

By Joey Santosus

With 13 of his 28 professional victories coming by some form of knockout, it’s no secret what one can expect from Dan Henderson when he steps into the cage. In fact, he’s finished his last three opponents via stoppage, and according to his striking coach Gustavo Pugliese, he’ll be looking to make it four straight when he meets Mauricio “Shogun” Rua on November 19th…

Visit Lowkick.Blitzcorner.com to read about Hendo’s game-plan for his Octagon return next month.

MMA Top 10 Light Heavyweights: Jon Jones Continues Division Dominance

Filed under: UFC, Strikeforce, Rankings, Light HeavyweightsThe UFC’s light heavyweight division has been so talented for so long that it’s been impossible in the last few years for anyone to stay on top for long. Rampage Jackson looked like a force whe…

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The UFC‘s light heavyweight division has been so talented for so long that it’s been impossible in the last few years for anyone to stay on top for long. Rampage Jackson looked like a force when he took the belt from Chuck Liddell, but it wasn’t long before Forrest Griffin took the belt from Rampage. Rashad Evans then took the belt from Griffin, but Evans lost the belt in his first title defense — at what was supposed to be the dawn of the Lyoto Machida Era. Except that Machida promptly lost his belt to Shogun Rua.

Now we have Jon Jones at the top of the division, however, and I think the belt is going to stay in place for a long time. Jones has absolutely obliterated both Jackson and Rua, and now he’ll get another former champion in Evans — with, I believe, similar results.

So as we list the top light heavyweights in mixed martial arts, we’re looking at an extremely talented division. But a division with one unique talent that stands far above the rest.

Top 10 Light Heavyweights in MMA
(Editor’s note: The fighter’s ranking the last time we did light heavyweights are in parentheses).

1. Jon Jones (1): There was never a moment during Jones’ victory over Jackson at UFC 135 that I even thought Jones was in the slightest bit of trouble. Jackson is a great fighter who appeared to be in good shape and ready for a big fight, but he simply wasn’t on Jones’s level. I don’t think anyone is.

2. Rashad Evans (2): Evans is finally close to the title shot that he’s been waiting on for more than a year, but I don’t think he has much of a chance of getting his belt back. Against Jackson, Jones did a great job of using his long legs to effectively fight at a distance, and if anything Jones will have an even greater reach advantage over Evans. It’s hard to see anywhere that Evans has an advantage over Jones. That title fight will not go well for Evans.

3. Shogun Rua (3): Shogun has a very big fight ahead of him against Dan Henderson at UFC 139, and if he wins that he’ll have a strong case that he’s the No. 2 light heavyweight in MMA. But given how thoroughly Jones beat Rua, it’s almost impossible to see the UFC giving Rua another shot at the title.

4. Lyoto Machida (4): Of all the light heavyweights in the sport, Machida is probably the one whose unorthodox stand-up style would present the greatest threat to Jones. If Machida wins his next fight, he’d make a lot of sense as an opponent for Jones in 2012.

5. Rampage Jackson (5): There have been times in Jackson’s career when it was fair to question his motivation and preparation, but UFC 135 was not one of those times. Jackson was well prepared for the Jones fight, he’s just nowhere near as good as Jones.

6. Dan Henderson (6): Henderson has left his Strikeforce light heavyweight title behind and will return to the Octagon to face Rua. A victory over Rua would give Henderson an excellent claim that he deserves a title shot against Jones, although as much respect as I have for Henderson I have an extremely hard time envisioning any way Henderson wins that fight.

7. Forrest Griffin (7): Griffin fights nothing but a who’s who of the all-time greats in the sport: His last seven fights consist of two battles with Shogun sandwiched around bouts against Rampage, Evans, Anderson Silva, Tito Ortiz and Rich Franklin. The biggest question for Griffin now is whether he wants to keep doing battle with the sport’s truly elite, or if now that he’s in his 30s and a husband and a father, he’d rather take a step down in quality of competition. Griffin will always be a fan favorite and a draw for the UFC, but he may no longer be prepared to fight in the upper echelon of the UFC’s light heavyweight division.

8. Rafael Cavalcante (10): Feijao looked very good in his victory over Yoel Romero Palacio on the September Strikeforce card. As long as he’s with Strikeforce, Feijao’s options for big fights are limited, but in the UFC there are any number of big fights for him at 205 pounds. MMA fans who just want to see the best fight the best should hope one of those big fights gets booked soon.

9. Phil Davis (8): The 27-year-old Davis was a great college wrestler who’s a lot of fun to watch, and he seems destined to take on Jones some day. The problem is that for as young and talented as Davis is, Jones is even younger and more talented.

10. Thiago Silva (9): We’re finally getting close to the end of Silva’s one-year suspension for taking performance-enhancing substances. I hope he’s stayed in shape and comes back hungry, because he’s a 28-year-old who’s a good enough striker that he can be a threat to anyone. He should be involved in some big light heavyweight fights in 2012.

 

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MMA Top 10 Pound-for-Pound: Anderson Silva Stands Far Above the Rest

Filed under: UFC, Rankings, OverallSaying that Anderson Silva the best fighter in MMA is an accurate statement, but it’s also an understatement. Just calling Silva the best doesn’t really capture just how big a gap there is between Silva and the rest o…

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Anderson Silva defeated Yushin Okami in the main event of UFC 134.Saying that Anderson Silva the best fighter in MMA is an accurate statement, but it’s also an understatement. Just calling Silva the best doesn’t really capture just how big a gap there is between Silva and the rest of the sport right now.

Since signing with the UFC in 2006, Silva is 14-0, which is the best record anyone has ever had in the UFC. But it’s not just the fact that he keeps winning, it’s the way he wins. Twelve of Silva’s 14 victories are by stoppage, and he has a wide variety of ways he can stop his opponents: He knocked out Chris Leben and Rich Franklin with knees, James Irvin and Forrest Griffin with punches, and Vitor Belfort with a front kick. He TKO’d Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt with punches, and Franklin with knees in a rematch. (He also TKO’d Patrick Cote, although you can’t give Silva a whole lot of credit for the way Cote’s knee buckled underneath him.) Silva made Chael Sonnen tap out to a triangle armbar, made Dan Henderson tap out to a rear-naked choke and made Travis Lutter tap out by holding him in a triangle and elbowing him in the head.

Winning percentage and stoppages aren’t the only way to measure a fighter, but a fighter’s record gives you a pretty good idea how good he is, and how often he finishes his opponent gives you a pretty good idea how dominant he is. And there’s really no one on Silva’s level when it comes to fighting at a high level, consistently winning and stopping his opponents with great frequency.

We’ll compare Silva to the rest of the best fighters in MMA below.

Top 10 Pound-for-Pound Fighters in MMA
(Number in parentheses is the fighter’s rank in the last pound-for-pound list.)

1. Anderson Silva (1): Silva is the all-time UFC record holder for consecutive wins and wins in title fights, and he’s twice moved up in weight class and destroyed the two opponents he met at 205 pounds. The only real question is whether the UFC can keep finding good opponents for him; other than a Sonnen rematch there’s not a lot for Silva to do at middleweight.

2. Georges St. Pierre (2): In the same time that Silva has gone 14-0, St. Pierre has gone 10-1, with three wins by TKO, one by submission and six by decision. The methodical way St. Pierre controls fights by insisting on doing what he does best and never allowing his opponents to do what they do best is impressive, but it’s not as impressive as the way Silva crushes people. And, of course, GSP lacks Silva’s undefeated record inside the Octagon.

3. Jon Jones (3): Jones’ record looks a lot like Silva’s: He’s 13-1, with eight wins by knockout or TKO, three by submission and two by decision. And Jones could easily be 14-0 with one more stoppage; his disqualification loss to Matt Hamill is really more like a TKO win for the purposes of considering how good Jones is. The difference between Jones and Silva is that Jones has only been fighting professionally for three and a half years, has only been in the UFC for eight fights and only started fighting the best of the best this year. Jones is the active fighter whose accomplishments may look the most like Silva’s one day, but Jones isn’t there yet.

4. Jose Aldo (4): In the same time that Silva has gone 14-0, Aldo is 11-0, with seven wins by knockout or TKO and four wins by decision. Aldo is somewhat similar to Silva as a striker in the diverse way he can finish fights with his hands, feet, knees and elbows. But he’s not quite as consistent as Silva, and unlike Silva he hasn’t yet proven that he can finish fights with his submission game.

5. Dominick Cruz (5): In the same time that Silva has gone 14-0, Cruz is 12-1, with one win by knockout, one win by TKO on a doctor stoppage, one win by submission and nine wins by decision. Cruz’s stand-up style is very effective in its own way but a lot different from — and nowhere near as destructive as — Silva’s style. Cruz is the master of point-fighting, and that’s respectable, but if he ever wants to be considered one of the truly great fighters he’s going to need to finish more fights.

6. Frank Edgar (6): In the same time that Silva has gone 14-0, Edgar is 10-1-1, with one win by TKO, one by submission and eight by decision. The loss and the draw came against the man Edgar will face at UFC 136…

7. Gray Maynard (7): In the same time that Silva has gone 14-0, Maynard is 8-0-1, with one win by knockout and seven by decision. Maynard also had two wins, a loss and a no contest in his Ultimate Fighter days. Maynard was something of an anti-Silva during his eight-fight winning streak prior to fighting Edgar, as he’d consistently win but rarely dominate and often bore. His fight with Edgar, however, was sensational, and if he can win the rematch, he’ll eliminate any doubt about what a great fighter he is.

8. Cain Velasquez (8): Velasquez is 9-0, including eight wins by knockout or TKO and one by decision. Velasquez has only seven UFC fights, so he has a long way to go before he has achieved as much as Silva, but his run of dominance to begin his career has been impressive. The big question is whether he can keep it up as he recovers from a serious shoulder injury, starting with Junior dos Santos in November.

9. Shogun Rua (10): Shogun’s pounding of Forrest Griffin moves him up a spot in the pound-for-pound rankings. The Rua of the Pride days was a lot like Silva: In the three and a half years he fought in Pride, Shogun went 12-1, with nine wins by knockout or TKO, one win by submission and one win by decision. But he’s not quite that fighter anymore; in the same time that Silva has gone 14-0, Rua is 8-3. Rua is still a great fighter who I’d pick to beat anyone at 205 pounds not named Jon Jones, but knee injuries have robbed him of some of his explosiveness.

10. Junior dos Santos (9): Dos Santos is 13-1, with eight wins by knockout or TKO, three by submission and two by decision. Unlike Silva, dos Santos’s decision victories have been thoroughly impressive, and he has shown knockout power like few fighters in MMA have. If he passes his toughest test yet when he faces Velasquez, dos Santos will have a good case that he belongs near the top of the pound-for-pound list.

 

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Forward Roll: UFC 134 Edition

Filed under: UFCAnderson Silva returned home to Brazil in what was essentially a coronation, riding a wave of euphoric fans to another rout, this time smashing the durable Japanese fighter Yushin Okami. We are still no closer to answering the question …

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Anderson Silva and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira both won their fights at UFC 134.Anderson Silva returned home to Brazil in what was essentially a coronation, riding a wave of euphoric fans to another rout, this time smashing the durable Japanese fighter Yushin Okami. We are still no closer to answering the question that Joe Rogan asked so many fights ago: Who can stop that man?

Silva’s next move is anyone’s guess. UFC president Dana White says that fighting on the UFC’s FOX debut is not happening, so apparently headlining a second mega-show is not in the cards for the long-reigning champion.

So who might be next for Silva? We take a look at the possibilities for him and several other of the UFC 134 participants in this edition of The Forward Roll.

Anderson Silva
Silva should be the main eventer of the FOX show. It’s a spot he’s earned, if he wants it. It would allow the UFC to showcase their best talent, and give fans the value of seeing him for free. Unless UFC executives changes their mind, that’s not going to happen, so it’s virtually a lock that he will face the winner of October’s Brian Stann vs. Chael Sonnen bout. Either fight is easily sellable, but a Sonnen rematch would draw massive interest.

Prediction: Silva faces the Sonnen-Stann winner in February 2012.

Yushin Okami
Okami joins a long list of fighters who fell to Silva in title bouts, yet only one — Rich Franklin — was able to earn a rematch. It’s a long, hard road back to the top for Okami, who took the long path to a title shot in the first place.

After waiting since last November to fight, Okami needs to get back to action quickly. So ideally, he needs to be matched up with a relatively well respected fighter, preferably coming off a loss.

Prediction: Okami faces Wanderlei Silva in December.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
Rebounding from his March title loss, Rua looked spectacular in pounding his way through Forrest Griffin. The result continued Rua’s bumpy ride in the UFC; he’s 4-3 overall since joining the promotion.

That said, Rua’s fights are always exciting, and given his highlight reel, he’s easily promotable. Needing less than two minutes to earn victory, Rua can turn around quickly and get back into the rotation. I’d slot him into a bigtime fight in short order.

Prediction: Rua faces Dan Henderson in November’s UFC on FOX debut.

Forrest Griffin
Griffin’s two-fight win streak was halted with a quickness by Rua. Prior to the event, he sounded disillusioned about the fight game, and the result isn’t likely to help matters. We also know that Forrest had other matters on his mind: his wife was nearing the end of her pregnancy as he flew to Rio to face Shogun.

Griffin deserves a nice break from the grind as he settles into fatherhood, and hopefully that gives him the time to reignite his fire to train and compete.

Prediction: Griffin returns in the spring against a fighter on the verge of top 10 status, someone like Alexander Gustafsson.

Edson Barboza
Barboza’s striking is beautiful to watch, yet he often seems content to hang back and counter rather than attack on his own terms. He is good enough to make that work against most mid-tier competition, but as he moves up the rankings and faces more wily foes, that could lead to trouble.

If I’m the UFC, I put him back in the cage against someone who’s going to force him to fight in many different areas.

Prediction: Barboza faces Cole Miller.

Ross Pearson
The British fighter still shows promise. He’s a fierce competitor, has crisp boxing and comes to scrap. It wasn’t enough against Barboza in a close call, but he shouldn’t face much of a downward move after putting up a game performance on enemy territory.

Prediction: Thiago Tavares has won two of three; Pearson has won three out of four. That matchup sounds about right.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Nogueira’s win over Brendan Schaub might have been the night’s emotional high in Rio. Nog came in as a sizable underdog, after a long layoff, and after admitting he had rushed his return to fight in Brazil for the first time.

The relative lack depth near the top of the heavyweight division should allow Nog to take a bit more time off now and let some other fights shake out. But for those who still have questions about Nog’s continuing ability to take a big shot, there is probably a big puncher on the other side of his break.

Prediction: Next spring, Nogueira faces the winner of October’s Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione fight.

Brendan Schaub
What a crazy game MMA is. Schaub was riding high, on top of the world as he made his way to Rio for UFC 134. No one would have ever predicted what was to happen next. The fact that Nogueira beat him was no huge shocker, but that he would knock Schaub out came as a stunner. Nogueira had only two knockouts in his entire, storied career prior to that, and has last one had come over six years ago.

While Schaub had dreams of a title shot, instead, it’s back to the end of the line for the 28-year-old.

Prediction: Schaub eventually fights the loser of September’s Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton match.

Rousimar Palhares
In victory or defeat, Palhares remains one of MMA’s most head-scratching talents. He backed off a sure TKO at UFC 134 to begin a premature celebration, then nearly got knocked out when the fight restarted.

Given his predisposition for unpredictability, who knows what to expect from Palhares in the future? But the man can still fight, so he deserves a big matchup.

Prediction: Palhares fights the winner of November’s Mark Munoz vs. Chris Leben fight.

 

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UFC 134 Press Conference Video

Filed under: UFCThe UFC will meet the media on Thursday at the UFC 134 press conference, and we’ll carry the video here at MMAFighting.com.

UFC President Dana White will run the show, along with UFC fighters Anderson Silva, Yushin Okami, Shogun Rua, F…

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Forrest Griffin is one of a several UFC 134 fighters who will attend the UFC 134 press conference.The UFC will meet the media on Thursday at the UFC 134 press conference, and we’ll carry the video here at MMAFighting.com.

UFC President Dana White will run the show, along with UFC fighters Anderson Silva, Yushin Okami, Shogun Rua, Forrest Griffin, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Brendan Schaub.

The press conference begins at 1 p.m. Eastern and the video (just click UFC live bar).




 

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