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UFC 169 Results: Barao TKOs Faber, Aldo Decisions Lamas

(I’ll eat my own foot if the word “bro” wasn’t uttered at least once. / Photo via Esther Lin/MMAFighting)

Legacies will be defined, belts may or may not change hands, and “Bagautinov” will be pronounced at least three different ways — welcome, ladies and gents, to CagePotato’s liveblog of UFC 169: Barao vs. Faber. On tap for this evening: Renan Barao attempts to defend his unified bantamweight title for the first time against Urijah Faber, and Jose Aldo goes for his sixth UFC featherweight title defense against hard-charging contender Ricardo Lamas. Plus: a heavyweight battle between Alistair Overeem and Frank Mir that’s totally awesome if you don’t think about it too hard.

Handling play-by-play for the UFC 169 pay-per-view broadcast is Aaron Mandel, who will be putting live results from the main card after the jump, starting at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest updates, and shoot your own thoughts into the comments section. Thanks for coming.

(I’ll eat my own foot if the word “bro” wasn’t uttered at least once. / Photo via Esther Lin/MMAFighting)

Preliminary card results
– Alan Patrick def. John Makdessi via unanimous decision (29-28 x 2, 30-27)
– Chris Cariaso def. Danny Martinez via unanimous decision (29-28 x 3)
– Nick Catone def. Tom Watson via split-decision (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
– Al Iaquinta def. Kevin Lee via unanimous decision (29-28 x 2, 28-27)
– Clint Hester def. Andy Enz via unanimous decision (30-27 x 2, 30-26)
– Rashid Magomedov def. Tony Martin via unanimous decision (29-28 x 3)
– Neil Magny def. Gasan Umalatov via unanimous decision (30-27 x 2, 29-28)

Alright everyone, we are live for the UFC 169 PPV card! The first seven (7!) fights all went to decision so if you’re just tuning in now congrats on not wasting your life, we must be due for something good.

Abel Trujillo vs. Jamie Varner

Varner took this on slightly short notice as an injury replacement for Bobby Green and he’ll be looking to keep his career resurgence going against the the up and comer Trujillo.

Round 1- Left hook lands for Varner. Good one-two from Trujillo. Right hand lands from Varner. Two big shots just miss from Trujillo. Varner hits a right hand and Trujillo answers. Good even exchanges so far. Ducking left hook for Varner. Trujillo clinches and tries for a takedown but Varner reverses and has Trujillo’s back. Varner rolls with him and stays on the back looking to sink in hooks. They scramble and Varner is in north south working a choke. The attempt looks deep but Trujillo gives the classic thumbs up. Varner tightens the choke but releases and tries to transition to mount but looses position and they return to the feet. A wild exchange ensues and both fighters are clipped but seem okay. Good straight left lands from Trujillo followed by a knee, great round. 10-9 Varner.

Round 2- Trujillo comes out firing but mostly missing. Front kick from Varner. Left hook tags Trujillo and tries to pounce but Trujillo fires back and clips Varner who shoots in on the legs. They are both standing and Varner clips Trujillo who goes against the fence and then slumps forward for a takedown. Varner sprawls and works strikes. Varner swivels to the back as Trujillo rises against the cage. They go rock em sock em robots against the cage and Trujillo is taking the worst of it but is still in the fight, but he is seriously wobbled. Out of nowhere Trujillo unloads a right hand that puts Varner out cold!!! Wild fight, holy shit.

Abel Trujillo defeats Jamie Varner via KO, 2:32 of round 2

Trujillo admits in the post-fight interview he was seriously hurt before getting the KO, love the honesty and the warrior spirit! This will be hard to top for FOTN and maybe KOTN.

Ali Bagautinov vs. John Lineker

Lineker has more UFC experience and top level KO power for 125 lbs. but Bagautinov can bring it and has shown it up to this point. Lineker struggled to make weight (again) yesterday so we’ll see if his gas tank can last if it needs to. Winner of this might get a Flyweight title shot in this new, emerging division.

At the check-in point they clip Lineker’s fingernail as Rogan starts with the mani/pedi jokes. NJ commission is world-class and Lineker cannot seem to keep his shit together.

Round 1- Lineker stalking and rips a right but Ali times it well and hits a takedown, looking to pass from full guard. Lineker working elbows from the bottom and man, he really does hit hard. Ali postures up and looks to rain down strikes. Ali trying to pass but Lineker doing a good job maintaining full guard. Lineker spins for a leg lock agains the sambo master as Rogan clowns on him. Ali switches to a heel hook of his own and sits back on it, looked good but Lineker spins out and they stand. Lineker taunts Ali to stand and strike. Lineker stalking again as Ali moves around the edge of the Octagon. Lineker throws a right body kick with Ali catches and uses to take Lineker down where he is on top in half guard throwing punches. Lineker trying for a kimura from the bottom as round ends. 10-9 Bagautinov.

Round 2- Low kicks from both men to start. Ali dives in on the legs for a takedown but it’s from way too far out and they end up against the fence. Ali flurries with strikes and they tie up in the clinch. They split, left hooks from Ali as he moves constantly to avoid Lineker’s power. Huge body shot right punch from Lineker and two more, ouch, these look good. Ali dives for a takedown which fails and those body shots hurt him. Lineker opening up and starting to tag Ali and the momentum is shifting. Ali dives under a punch for a takedown. Lineker sprawls and throws elbows to the body as he rises against the fence. They separate and Ali hits some good punches to the head of Lineker, kick is blocked and Ali goes for a takedown which fails. Round ends with a flurry, Lineker landing some heavy shots. 10-9 Lineker.

Round 3- By my unofficial scoring it will come down to this round. Ali wades in through strikes and get a takedown from a clinch trip but Lineker gets back to his feet. Ali throws Lineker back down from the body lock. Ali working to full mount as Lineker works a kimura and recovers half guard. Lineker uses the fence to get back up but gets hit with a left and then taken back down by Ali. Half guard with Ali on top and Rogan makes the good point that Lineker’s cardio remarkably seems okay as we’re halfway through the third round. They are clinched against the cage with Ali working knees. They separate, one minute left. Ali dives in on a leg and gets it, even from quite far out. Ali working strikes on top as Lineker goes for a leg lock and eats some strikes to pay for it. The fight ends with Lineker working a leg lock as Bagautinov stands up flexing and playing to the crowd. 10-9 Bagautinov.

Ali Bagautinov defeats John Lineker via unanimous decision (29-28 x3)

Frank Mir vs. Alistair Overeem

Time for the big boys to throw down. Both have been on the wrong end of KO’s as of late and the loser could be out of the UFC.

Round 1- BIG DUDES! Touch of the gloves and some feeling out. High kick by Mir, body punch from Overeem. Low kick by Overeem and a right hand from Mir. Mir comes in with strikes and clinches but Overeem reverses and throws some knees. They split, leg kick from Overeem and he lands a short left hand on Mir. Left hook behind the ear of Mir. Thai clinch from Overeem and a knee to the body makes Mir spit. Overeem drops Mir with a knee to the head from the clinch and he is hanging on for dear life on the ground as Overeem pours it on. Overeem is pinning Mir’s hand behind his head big brother style. Mir eats a knee to the body but rises to his feet! Did Overeem gas again@!!?!? They split and back on the feet. Overeem looks fresh still, that cardio training has paid off. Mir comes in with a kick and a punch that are slow and miss. They clinch and Mir drops for a leglock but ends up on the bottom in half guard. Overeem drops two hammerfists and an elbow to the midsection. Round ends with Overeem on top but Mir survives. 10-9 Overeem.

Round 2- Straight left from Overeem snaps Mir’s head back. Leg kick from Mir and then another which is checked. Overeem catches a leg and throws Mir like a small child to the mat but backs off. Mir comes in with strikes that are slow again and miss. Overeem clinches and throws knees to the body against the fence. Ref separates them and back to the center. Overeem throws three big strikes which land. Mir runs in and scores a bumrush takedown. Overeem sitting up against the cage with Mir trying to stay on top. Mir briefly threatens with a guillotine but loses it and finds himself on the bottom with Overeem throwing strikes again. Overeem continues to work strikes on top in half guard. Mir is bloodied around his right eye in multiple places. Big left elbow from Overeem and Mir is getting beaten up. Mir gets full guard from the bottom and tries to use the cage to roll and reverse. Overeem stands up while Mir lays in guard. Ref stands them up and the round ends. 10-9 Overeem.

Round 3- Two high kicks miss from Mir. Mir tries for a takedown, runs into the brick wall of Overeem’s body and then pulls guard. Overeem does not want to play on the ground and stands up. Mir shoots for another takedown but again has to pull guard and ends up on the bottom in half guard eating some punches from Overeem. Two big left hands land from Overeem on top and Mir ties him up. Overeem working strikes to the head and body from guard. Overeem is laying a methodical beating on Mir and he stands up to force Mir to rise. Big straight right rocks Mir who looks longingly at the clock. Overeem begs Mir to swing at him but Mir just flails a weak kick and eats two more big strikes from Overeem as the right ends. 10-9 Overeem.

Alistair Overeem defeats Frank Mir via unanimous decision (30-27 x3)

Champ Jose Aldo vs. Ricardo Lamas

For some reason the heavier fight is not the headliner. Lamas is rocking a great mohawk mullet, may it give him the strength he needs because Aldo is the clear favorite and maybe the pound for pound best.

Round 1- Leg kick from Lamas and another. Head kick misses from Lamas. Aldo throwing lots of fakes and feeling Lamas out. Two minutes in and Aldo has thrown three strikes. More leg kicks from Lamas which Aldo is mostly checking. Two strikes and a kick from Aldo. Spinning kick to the body from Aldo. Jumping head kick from Lamas is blocked. Body kick from Lamas and he slips and Aldo pounces throwing head and body shots but no major damage. Lamas working more kicks, high and low, none landing. Right hand from Aldo to the head and rips another to the body. Two spinning kicks miss from Aldo. First round ends with Aldo throwing flying knee and punches. More missed than landed in that round, fortunately we’ve got four more if we need them! 10-9 Lamas.

Round 2- Aldo checks a leg kick and blocks a high kick. Lamas throws a slow wheel kick which also doesn’t land. Punch and low kick from Aldo, that hurt. Straight right from Aldo. Leg kick from Lamas doesn’t land fully, body punch from Aldo and two more. Good leg kick from Aldo, his are way more successful than Lamas’. Aldo clips Lamas with a left hand. Good leg kick from Aldo. Jabs and a leg kick from Aldo, he’s starting to turn it up. Another leg kick bends Lamas around. Wheel kick misses from Lamas. Lamas’ leg is starting to give out on the kicks. Wheel kick again from Lamas that is blocked followed by another that totally misses. 10-9 Aldo.

Round 3- Lamas comes out with a front kick and then a body kick. Leg kick from Aldo. Punch and a leg kick from Aldo. Aldo blocks a head kick and throws a leg kick. Aldo with more leg kicks and punches. Lamas tries for a single leg takedown but Aldo shrugs it off. Lamas with a head kick that was close, leg kick from Aldo, obviously. Front push kick frmo Lamas and Aldo drills him with a leg kick. Uppercut from Lamas and an overhand right from Aldo. Two jabs and a straight right from Aldo. Lamas misses with two headkicks. Body punch from Aldo and another leg kick. Lamas is still in the fight though, he’s taking it and pushing on, throwing strong strikes of his own. Right hand and leg kick from Lamas. Lamas got Aldo with a right. 10-9 Aldo.

Round 4- Aldo has tended to fade in the championship rounds, we’ll see how this goes. Lamas goes for a single leg takedown which Aldo defends as he backs against the cage. Lamas lifts Aldo into the air against the cage and Aldo just chills there in midair for awhile. Aldo reverses and puts Lamas against the cage. Aldo trips Lamas and takes him to the mat. Aldo on top in side control looking for an arm triangle. Aldo now in half guard. Lamas with butterfly guard and Aldo jumps over them and lands in mount. Lamas rolls and gives up his back. Aldo goes for a choke but can’t get it under the chin. Lamas gets to his feet and now shoots in on Aldo who has his back against the cage defending against Lamas. 10-9 Aldo.

Round 5- I think Lamas has to finish here to win. Lamas comes out aggressive with a flurry of body kicks. Lamas swings for the fences but misses and Aldo presses him against the cage. Aldo drags Lamas down against the cage and is in full guard. Aldo moves to side control and then mount. Lamas throws his hips and reverses Aldo. Lamas now on top in full guard. Lamas diving down with strikes but Aldo defending. Big elbow from Lamas and he wants it but Aldo is doing a good job of somewhat desperately tying him up. Lamas’ corner is screaming that he needs to finish and Lamas is pouring it on. Aldo ties him back up in full guard and is hanging on tight. A few final punches and elbows from Lamas as the round ends. 10-9 Lamas and I think Aldo will take it three rounds to two, but who am I?

Jose Aldo defeats Ricardo Lamas via unanimous decision (49-46 x3)

Aldo gives Lamas credit in his postfight interview as the humble champ retains the belt.

Champ Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber

Faber has been on an absolute tear since his previous loss to Barao and he steps up on short notice for another crack at a title that has eluded him since earlier in his WEC days. Barao has been on a run of his own, dude hasn’t lost since 2005 in his first fight. Faber has lost his last 5 title fights and won everything else, he is still evolving and improving but you have to wonder at age 34 if he’ll get another shot if he loses tonight. My heart wants Faber, my head says Barao, it’s tough out here.

Round 1- Kicks and punches from both to start, nothing landing. Faber catches a leg and lands a left on Barao. Lots of kicks from Barao, nothing really landing so far. Body shot by Faber, he slips and briefly turtles up as Barao strikes. Faber stands up with a spinning back fist and he smiles at Barao. Body shot head shot combo from Faber and his striking looks good, thanks Duane Ludwig. Head kick blocked from Barao. Good leg kick by Barao. Barao floors Faber with a punch and dives in. Faber covering up for his life but he gets back to his feet! Barao hits Faber some more and he tries for a leg desperately. Barao drops Faber again and Faber goes flat on the canvas for a second before grabbing Barao’s leg again. Barao raining down punches as Faber covers up. Referee Herb Dean jumps in and stops the fight. Faber holds on in disbelief to Barao’s leg and tells Dean that he was fine and giving a thumbs up. It’s to no avail and the champ retains his belt.

Renan Barao defeats Urijah Faber via tko, round 1

From where I sit, on my couch, that was a bad stoppage. No one except Herb Dean is in the cage making those calls officially but we’re all entitled to our opinions. My opinion is that Faber should have been given every opportunity to stay in that fight and he was robbed of that. I bet Eddie Wineland agrees.

Faber stays classy in his interview but agrees the stoppage was early, obviously, and suggests that “a limp body” would be a better indicator to stop the fight. Rogan suggests that Chad Mendes, Faber’s teammate should get the next shot, Faber reminds Rogan that Mendes is a weight class above. ”I’m retarded,” muses Rogan, outsmarted by a guy who was on the verge of consciousness a minute ago. And on that note, have a good night.

UFC 169: Win or Lose, Jose Aldo Must Make a Move to Lightweight

Unquestionably, UFC featherweight champion Jose “Scarface” Aldo stands in a class by himself as far as current UFC champions go. Unbeaten since 2005, he has laid a path of destruction with emphatic wins over Mark Hominick, Mike Brown, Manny Gamburyan, …

When the Nova Uniao camp unleashes him into hostile territory, Aldo takes his game to a different level against the men in his division.

UFC 169 will either mark the sixth successful defense of his crown against “The Bully” Ricardo Lamas, or it will ignite the flame that brings a brand-new heat to the 145-lb division in what some might immediately coin the Lamas era.

Incidentally enough, despite a time in the sport when the downfall of MMA legends and all-time greats still get classified as upsets, some could actually foresee the changing of the featherweight guard on Saturday night.

While Lamas’ aggressive style, punishing ground-and-pound attack and determination to win will factor into a potential victory, we must point out Aldo’s weight cut as a factor as well.

While he has made weight for every fight in the UFC and has looked good in a majority of his performances, the weight cut took its toll on him, causing him to look sluggish against Edgar and Florian. As a result, he was more careful in his approach and won decisions in both fights rather than finishing them definitively.

No MMA rule forbids a fighter to go to a decision, and when the UFC absorbed the WEC, fans knew that Aldo’s streak of KOs and TKOs would not continue forever. However, when weight cutting starts to take its toll and fans recall those cuts more than injuries suffered during the bout or after it, maybe going up a weight class would benefit the fighter more than people think.

When people hear about a fight with Anthony Pettis, who originally planned to fight Aldo for his featherweight belt at UFC 163 before injuries shelved the lightweight champ, they think that the prospect of Scarface moving up in weight indicates that the 145-lb division is devoid of challengers. The idea also seems like a cheap excuse to see two reigning champs pull off this superfight thing that the UFC has pushed for years.

Still, at what point do we wake up and observe that Aldo, only 27 years old, has slowed down noticeably in fights, even more so than the usual pacing that most fighters do to conserve energy? Sooner or later, the toll of trying to make the 145-lb limit will tax him far worse than any damage he physically absorbs inside the cage, and then what?

Do we all pretend to be surprised if the stress of weight cutting forces him into an early retirement?

The prospect of having a long MMA career should make Aldo at least reconsider his decision to finish his career at 145, even if he does not wish to fight at 155 full time without getting Pettis right off the bat. And that’s regardless of whether or not he leaves Newark, N.J. with his title on Saturday.

If he decides to go up to 155 permanently and work his way toward Pettis, even with the lack of real contenders for the lightweight belt, fans will get to enjoy Aldo for a considerably longer period of time. If he doesn’t move up in weight, the time may come when he’ll have to end his career earlier than anticipated.

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UFC 169: Predictions for Every Fight on the Card

UFC 169 should be an outstanding event from Newark, N.J., on Saturday night. The evening is headlined by two title fights as Jose Aldo defends his featherweight title against Ricardo Lamas, while Renan Barao defends his bantamweight title against “The …

This card is stacked full of great matchups, and here is a quick look at every fight you will see on Saturday night.

UFC Fight Pass Prelims

Neil Magny vs Gasan Umalatov

The first fight features Neil Magny vs UFC newcomer Gasan Umalatov. Umalatov brings a 14-2-1 record into the UFC and has shown an ability to win fights by submission. Magny is looking to shake off back-to-back losses that he suffered at UFC 163 and UFC Fight for the Troops 3.

Unfortunately, for Magny, his slide will continue tonight though. Umalatov may be a UFC newcomer, but he has proven himself in the past.

Umalatov, Submission, Round 2

Tony Martin vs Rashid Magomedov

Tony Martin and Rashid Magomedov each make their UFC debuts in the second fight of the night. Martin is 7-0 in his MMA career and is a fighter who wants to get you on the ground for a submission. Rashid Magomedov brings a 15-1 record into the fight and has won 47 percent of his fights by KO/TKO—a very different style to Martin.

Magomedov should get his UFC career off to the right start tonight.

Magomedov, TKO, Round 1

Clint Hester vs Andy Enz

Clint Hester has been on a roll of late. He has five straight victories and has won his last four fights by KO/TKO. On the other side, Andy Enz makes his UFC debut after starting his MMA career out 7-0 in the AFC. Enz has won five of his fights by submission, but he is an underdog tonight against Hester.

The roll Hester has been on will continue tonight.

Hester, TKO, Round 2

Fox Sports 1 Prelims

Al Iaquinta vs Kevin Lee

After coming off The Ultimate Fighter 15, Al Iaquinta has won his last two fights in the UFC by decision and hopes to turn in a little more dominating performance tonight against UFC newcomer Kevin Lee.

Lee has won his last four fights by submission, but this is certainly his toughest test to date as he begins his UFC career.

Iaquinta, Unanimous Decision

Nick Catone vs Tom Watson

Nick Catone and Tom Watson both have no problem standing up to one another and trying to knock the other one out. Do not expect to see a lot of grappling and submission attempts in this fight. Both fighters feature a lot of power, but Watson is the better fighter in this matchup.

Watson, TKO, Round 2

Chris Cariaso vs Danny Martinez

Chris Cariaso has worked his way into the top 10 flyweight contenders in the UFC and he is looking to justify his ranking with a victory over Danny Martinez. Martinez makes his UFC debut tonight and has a very tough test against a veteran UFC fighter.

The test will be too tough tonight for Martinez.

Cariaso, Submission, Round 2

John Makdessi vs Alan Patrick

John Makdessi is a veteran in the Octagon, while Patrick will be in his second UFC fight. Makdessi has been fighting well since picking up his second career loss in April of 2012. This is almost a pick ’em fight, so it’s hard to not pick the veteran in the Octagon—even though Patrick has an undefeated MMA record.

Makdessi, Unanimous Decision

Main Card

Jamie Varner vs Abel Trujillo

This is an outstanding fight to get a great main card underway. Both of these fighters are very evenly matched and it will be exciting and interesting to watch the striking power of Trujillo against the defense of Varner (who has never been knocked out).

There’s a first for everything, though, and I like the power from Abel Trujillo.

Trujillo, TKO, Round 2

John Lineker vs Ali Bagautinov

A typical battle between two fighters with very different styles. John Lineker will be looking to use his striking ability tonight, while Ali Bagautinov will be looking to take the fight to the ground and use his submission skills.

Lineker has not faced many solid wrestlers yet, so this will be a tough test for him tonight.

Bagautinov, Submission, Round 2

Frank Mir vs Alistair Overeem

I love watching Overeem fight and I love his stand up and striking ability much more than that of Frank Mir. Mir is going to have to take this fight to the ground if he wants to survive for more than a round against Overeem.

It looks like Mir does not really have much of a chance in this fight.

Overeem, TKO, Round 1

Jose Aldo vs Ricardo Lamas

Ricardo Lamas is a very good fighter, but he needs to be beyond very good and enter the realm of greatness if he wants to beat Jose Aldo. Aldo is one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC today and has the power, speed, and striking ability to knock out Lamas at any moment in the fight.

Lamas will put together a good fight tonight, but too much Jose Aldo will be his demise and Aldo will retain his title.

Aldo, TKO, Round 3

Renan Barao vs Urijah Faber

I watched this fight again last night just to jog my memory of how outstanding it is to watch these two fighters go at it. Barao won the first fight because of how well he was able to defend himself from the striking of Faber.

Faber attempted a couple of takedowns in their first fight, but they were quickly stopped by Barao. Faber is certainly much better now in his career than he was when these two fighters first met, but Barao certainly is better as well.

I think Faber may have improved more over this time than Barao has though.

Has he improved enough to reach the level of Barao?

We will find out tonight, I guess, but that is what I am banking on for this matchup.

Faber, Unanimous Decision

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Barao vs. Faber 2: Keys to Victory for Each Fighter

It’s probably not a secret to anyone that the UFC 169 headliner between Renan Barao and Urijah Faber is a competitive tilt on paper.
Most would say Barao is the favorite, propelled by his nine-year unbeaten streak and a prior win over Faber, but he’s g…

It’s probably not a secret to anyone that the UFC 169 headliner between Renan Barao and Urijah Faber is a competitive tilt on paper.

Most would say Barao is the favorite, propelled by his nine-year unbeaten streak and a prior win over Faber, but he’s got his hands full with the Team Alpha Male product.

The same is true for Faber, who has his hands full with a Brazilian wrecking ball (who hasn’t been remotely pushed in the UFC) and looks to defend the true bantamweight title for the first time.

For either man to be successful against the other, there are key elements of engagement that they must focus on.

Looking at the challenger, it’s pretty clear that he isn’t going to outpoint Barao on the feet. The champion simply has too many ways to attack, too much skill and too much technical expertise. That doesn’t mean that the road to victory is closed, however.

Faber is at his best when he’s selective, but highly committed, to his striking game. He’s just shifty enough to surprise opponents when he pursues with power punches, and if he blends those skills properly against Barao, he has a chance.

The key for The California Kid is to rely on his improved footwork to open angles and then blast through the openings he creates with one of his patented blitzes. Barao is undeniably good, but he’s also hittable, and Faber is as good as anyone at finishing when he’s got a guy on the run.

If he hurts Barao, he needs to pursue relentlessly for a TKO or try and impose a bad position on the champion and secure a submission. It’s how Faber wins fights, and if he’s to win this one, his avenue for success is no different.

Barao, looking for his first win as the proper bantamweight champion, has a path to victory similar to the path he took to a win over Faber at UFC 149. He needs to keep the fight upright and score from range, beat up the challenger and take home a decision.

The reality is that he isn’t a finisher standing up, despite what promoters want people with disposable income for a pay-per-view to think. He knocked Eddie Wineland out spectacularly, but that was the first time he stopped someone with something other than a submission since 2009. In 31 career wins, less than a quarter have been by (T)KO.

With that in mind, and the fact that his threatening submission game may not be overly reliable against a grappler as talented as Faber, it’s wise for the champion to fight for points and see where it goes. Fans probably don’t want to hear that, but that makes it no less of a smart game plan.

With a more varied striking game, flashier combinations and something of a speed advantage, impressing the judges for 25 minutes is the easiest way for Barao to retain. It’s possible, though unlikely, it could net him a finish if he catches Faber coming in for a flurry. But even if that never presents itself, he’s likely to run away with a stand-up fight.

So it goes for the first official UFC bantamweight title defense not to be performed by Dominick Cruz. With the interim tag removed from his reign, Barao should look to ride his vaunted striking to a decision win. Faber should rely on his power and aggression to try and keep him from doing so inside the distance.

Both men have a clear path to victory, but only one will walk it. The world finds out which one on Super Saturday in Newark.

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Barao vs. Faber 2 Predictions: Calling a Finish for Each Combatant

UFC 169 goes down Saturday night in Newark, N.J., a short jaunt down the Jersey Turnpike from where the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks will wage a fight of their own in Sunday’s Super Bowl XLVIII.
At the top of the card is a rematch between R…

At the top of the card is a rematch between Renan Barao, a former interim champion made legitimate by another injury to his predecessor, and Urijah Faber, a former contender who’s gone 4-0 since losing to him in 2012.

The fight is a clash of styles in every imaginable way, with Barao‘s young gun looking to best the veteran presence of Faber. Barao is completely weaponized on the feet, lashing kicks and combinations with free ferocity, while Faber is a man you absolutely do not want to tangle with in a grappling exchange.

The first bout was fairly one-sided considering the skill of Faber, a man all but unbeatable in fights that aren’t for a title. Barao badly battered him in a decision win, but the performance fell on deaf ears, as it headlined one of the worst cards in the history of the UFC.

This time, the two meet in the headliner of one of the promotion’s tent-pole pay-per-views the Saturday night before the Super Bowl, a night reserved for the likes of Anderson Silva, Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz in the past.

Smart odds would likely suggest a decision is in the offing once again, as both men are crafty and durable, but there are avenues to a shorter night’s work for each.

Barao holds a decided advantage in technical acumen while standing and has a much wider range of attacks at his disposal. If he elected to truly put it on Faber at any point, it isn’t hard to imagine him overwhelming the challenger with precision and volume if the chance presents itself.

For his part, Faber probably has the advantage in raw power and pure bulldog tenacity. He’s mentally unbreakable, and if he decides to push forward and swing for the fences, he might score a knockdown or force Barao to the ground, where he could push the issue in the form of his hyper-aggressive submission game.

It’s interesting, because both men hold advantages, but each is capable enough in the playground of the other to keep things close.

Barao may have a stand-up advantage, but Faber can hang enough with his power and experience to make it interesting.

Meanwhile, Faber is a terrifying proposition on the ground, but Barao is a black belt who comes from a good camp. He’s also no picnic to take down.

The path seems obvious for two guys so closely matched. There will be fireworks, and depending on where the fight is contested, it’s a lock to flesh itself out in favor of one man or another. It’s only a matter of whether or not that happens inside of 25 minutes, and that’s in the hands of the guys competing.

Follow me on Twitter @matthewjryder

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Eddie Wineland Picks Urijah Faber to Upset Renan Barao

Former WEC bantamweight champion Eddie Wineland is picking Urijah Faber to score an upset and defeat UFC 135-pound titleholder Renan Barao at UFC 169 this evening.
Speaking with MMA Junkie, Wineland believes Faber has the advantage in the striking depa…

Former WEC bantamweight champion Eddie Wineland is picking Urijah Faber to score an upset and defeat UFC 135-pound titleholder Renan Barao at UFC 169 this evening.

Speaking with MMA Junkie, Wineland believes Faber has the advantage in the striking department and will be able to bring something to this fight he wasn‘t able to during their UFC 149 encounter in July 2012.

I think if Faber presses forward and doesn’t let him get his kicks off, he’ll win the striking. … If Faber presses the issue and is either all in or all out, it’s going to nullify Barao’s kicks. … I think it is possible for Faber to take him down, but I think it’s going to be extremely hard and he’ll have a hard time holding him there. … I agree with Dana White that he’s in that Vitor Belfort zone where he’s getting older, but he’s getting better. His last couple fights, you look at [Michael] McDonald, he’s ranked No. 3 right now. He just ran right through like McDonald didn’t even matter. He just ran right through him, and that was a big statement.

Wineland lost a lopsided decision to “The California Kid” at UFC 128 in March 2011 and also came up short in a title bout against Barao at UFC 165 in September when he lost via second-round TKO.

The 29-year-old has since bounced back with a blistering knockout over Yves Jabouin at UFC on FOX 10 last week.

Barao enters tonight’s title bout on the strength of an incredible 32-fight unbeaten streak, only tasting defeat in his professional mixed martial arts debut back in April 2005.

Meanwhile, Faber has been on a tear since the loss to Barao, scoring four straight dominant victories (three coming by way of submission) and making it impossible to deny him another crack at UFC gold.

Most recently, as Wineland noted, the Team Alpha Male standout ran through No. 3 bantamweight in the world Michael McDonald at UFC on FOX 9 in December, tapping out the young prospect with his patented guillotine choke in the second round.

Will Faber be able to improve on his 0-5 record in title fights since November 2008, or will “The Baron” again prove he is a cut above the rest at 135 pounds?

UFC 169 takes place at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J., with the preliminary bouts airing on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

John Heinis is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. He is also the MMA editor for eDraft.com.

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