We’re still not certain when Jones and Gustafsson will meet up for an encore performance, but that shouldn’t stop you from betting on the hypothetical fight. The opening line for Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 was recently released, establishing Jones as a still-hefty -400 favorite, compared to a +300 mark for Gustafsson. Since then, the line has slightly widened out, suggesting that the early money is coming in on Jones. (i.e., the oddsmakers are making Jones less profitable and Gustafsson more profitable, in an attempt to lure more wagers in Gustafsson’s direction.)
And why wouldn’t people be betting on Jones? Gustafsson may have made the champ look vulnerable during their five-round war, but the reality is that Gustafsson still wasn’t able to come away with a victory, despite putting in the greatest performance of his career. So if you were thinking of laying some cash on Gus in the rematch, here’s what you need to ask yourself: Does it really makes sense to wager on Gustafsson now that he’s significantly less profitable than he was for the first fight? Do you expect Gustafsson to do even better against Jones the second time? Really? Why?
In my opinion, the only logical reason for betting on Gustafsson in the rematch is that the fight could easily turn into another evenly-matched five-round war of attrition — and when a fight like that goes to the judges, you might as well be flipping a coin.
We’re still not certain when Jones and Gustafsson will meet up for an encore performance, but that shouldn’t stop you from betting on the hypothetical fight. The opening line for Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 was recently released, establishing Jones as a still-hefty -400 favorite, compared to a +300 mark for Gustafsson. Since then, the line has slightly widened out, suggesting that the early money is coming in on Jones. (i.e., the oddsmakers are making Jones less profitable and Gustafsson more profitable, in an attempt to lure more wagers in Gustafsson’s direction.)
And why wouldn’t people be betting on Jones? Gustafsson may have made the champ look vulnerable during their five-round war, but the reality is that Gustafsson still wasn’t able to come away with a victory, despite putting in the greatest performance of his career. So if you were thinking of laying some cash on Gus in the rematch, here’s what you need to ask yourself: Does it really makes sense to wager on Gustafsson now that he’s significantly less profitable than he was for the first fight? Do you expect Gustafsson to do even better against Jones the second time? Really? Why?
In my opinion, the only logical reason for betting on Gustafsson in the rematch is that the fight could easily turn into another evenly-matched five-round war of attrition — and when a fight like that goes to the judges, you might as well be flipping a coin.
According to our current homepage poll, 43% of you think Cat Zingano at least stands a chance of victory when she challenges Ronda Rousey for the UFC women’s bantamweight title following their TUF 18 coaching stint. If only the oddsmakers were so confident. Despite Zingano’s comeback thrashing of Miesha Tate earlier this month, Rousey opened up as a stunning -825 betting favorite in the future matchup, with Zingano opening at +475. (Translation: At those odds, you’d have to wager $825 on Rousey to collect a $100 profit if she wins, while a $100 wager on Zingano would pay out a $475 profit if the challenger manages to score an upset.)
We haven’t seen a betting line that lopsided for a UFC title fight since…well, Rousey’s last fight against Liz Carmouche. To put this in perspective, Jon Jones originally opened at just -600 for his UFC 159 fight against the totally-fucked Chael Sonnen, although most betting sites now have Jones in the -800 to -900 range. In other words, the oddsmakers feel that Cat Zingano has about as good a chance of beating Ronda Rousey as Chael Sonnen does of winning a title fight in the weight class above his own. Yeesh. Sorry, Cat.
Bottom line, if you think Zingano has a shot in this one, consider laying down some cash, and quickly. Personally, we’ll stick with our usual investment strategy of flushing $20 bills down the toilet when we find them hidden in our stack of $100s. The price of gold may rise and fall, but that toilet remains as stable as something you sit on and crap into. I don’t know where I was going with this.
According to our current homepage poll, 43% of you think Cat Zingano at least stands a chance of victory when she challenges Ronda Rousey for the UFC women’s bantamweight title following their TUF 18 coaching stint. If only the oddsmakers were so confident. Despite Zingano’s comeback thrashing of Miesha Tate earlier this month, Rousey opened up as a stunning -825 betting favorite in the future matchup, with Zingano opening at +475. (Translation: At those odds, you’d have to wager $825 on Rousey to collect a $100 profit if she wins, while a $100 wager on Zingano would pay out a $475 profit if the challenger manages to score an upset.)
We haven’t seen a betting line that lopsided for a UFC title fight since…well, Rousey’s last fight against Liz Carmouche. To put this in perspective, Jon Jones originally opened at just -600 for his UFC 159 fight against the totally-fucked Chael Sonnen, although most betting sites now have Jones in the -800 to -900 range. In other words, the oddsmakers feel that Cat Zingano has about as good a chance of beating Ronda Rousey as Chael Sonnen does of winning a title fight in the weight class above his own. Yeesh. Sorry, Cat.
Bottom line, if you think Zingano has a shot in this one, consider laying down some cash, and quickly. Personally, we’ll stick with our usual investment strategy of flushing $20 bills down the toilet when we find them hidden in our stack of $100s. The price of gold may rise and fall, but that toilet remains as stable as something you sit on and crap into. I don’t know where I was going with this.
On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.
MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)
PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)
If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…
On paper, this Saturday’s TUF 17 Finale card is dominated by wide mismatches. But which fights will actually be blowouts, and which ones will end in profitable upsets? Check out the betting lines below (via bestfightodds.com) and let’s see if we can win some cash off this thing.
MAIN CARD (FX, 9 p.m. ET)
Urijah Faber (-435) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+375)
Uriah Hall (-309) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+325)
Cat Zingano (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (+106)
Travis Browne (-250) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+240)
Robert McDaniel (-166) vs. Gilbert Smith (+155)
PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV, 7 p.m. ET)
Josh Samman (-445) vs. Kevin Casey (+370)
Luke Barnatt (-124) vs. Collin Hart (+115)
Jimmy Quinlan (+100) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105)
Clint Hester (-160) vs. Bristol Marunde (+150)
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Bart Palaszewski (-160) vs. Cole Miller (+155)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Justin Lawrence (+109)
Maximo Blanco (-200) vs. Sam Sicilia (+195)
If you’re confused about what the numbers mean, read this. Otherwise, let’s proceed…
The Main Event: Without disrespecting the man too much, let’s just say that Scott Jorgensen is only in the main event because Urijah Faber needed somebody to fight. A win for Faber is the most likely scenario here…but man, are those odds bloated or what? Keep in mind that Faber has been relatively inconsistent since his WEC heyday, and has been alternating neatly between wins and losses during his UFC career. (Both Faber and Jorgensen are coming off of submission victories, by the way.) At -435, putting money on the California Kid is definitely not worth the risk. On the other hand, a small bet on Jorgensen (+375) might be. Consider it.
The Co-Main Event: I have to admit, the Uriah Hall hype train has swept me off my feet and I like it, baby. I think Hall is a lock against Kelvin Gastelum, and it’s not just because of his explosive power or flashy Tekken-kicks — it’s also his maturity, his confidence, and his experience edge. Of the five opponents on Gastelum’s professional record, only one had a winning record when they fought. Meanwhile, Hall has already been in the cage with UFC-level talents like Chris Weidman and Costa Philippou, and learned valuable lessons from those fights. Gastelum is an incredible raw talent, but he needs seasoning; Hall already has it. Betting on Uriah won’t be profitable, but it’s a fairly safe investment.
The Ladies: It’s somewhat surprising that Cat Zingano — who isn’t a familiar Strikeforce crossover — is a slight favorite over a known quantity like Miesha Tate. Zingano certainly looks the part, and Rose Namajunas told us that she’s a stud wrestler and rapidly improving striker, in addition to her BJJ base. But until Cat experiences her first fight on a big stage against a top talent like Tate, I wouldn’t suggest betting on her. Small money on Miesha is probably the way to go.
Another Good ‘Dog: If Cole Miller (+155) can bring the fight to the ground, Bart Palaszewski is in deep shit. That is all.
Proceed With Caution: Six months ago, Browne vs. Gonzaga would have been a no-brainer. Travis Browne was the nasty up-and-comer, and Gabriel Gonzaga was the irrelevant can-crusher. Then, Browne blew a hammy while firing some ridiculously unnecessary jumping front kicks against Bigfoot Silva, and Gonzaga went and choked out Ben Rothwell — his greatest UFC victory since his infamous head kick knockout of Mirko Cro Cop. So is Napao back? And will Browne keep it simple this time, for God’s sake? My gut tells me that Browne has this in the bag, but my mind tells me to skip it, just in case.
The Official CagePotato “Safe” Parlay: $5 on Faber+Hall+Tate+Barnatt returns a $22.77 profit on BetUS.
The Unofficial CagePotato “So Crazy It Just Might Work?” Parlay: $5 on Jorgensen+Gonzaga+Casey+Marunde+Miller+Sicilia returns a $5,431.40 profit.
(If 10 cc’s of Desflurane can’t keep this kid down, NOTHING CAN.)
I was there. I was there the last time Anderson Silva was listed asanythingless than a 3-to-1 favorite over his opponent. It was called 2011. Barack Obama was President, George W. Bush was in the White House, and Bill Clinton was running this country into the ground. The event was UFC 126, which was being held in a little hole in the wall town in what is now Nevada. Some fella by the name of Vitor shows up, starts picking off so-called “former middleweight champions.” Before we knew what hit us, he was trying to dethrone old Andy in our own backyard. So Vitor had to go.
Now this fella by the name of Weidman storms into town, flashing them dimes like a big shot and making noise, and wouldn’t you know it, he’s currently listed as one of the smallest underdogs(+165) Anderson has faced in his entire UFC career. It’s a load of claptrap if you ask me; this Weidman feller hasn’t fought in almost a year and is coming off shoulder surgery to boot. But if history is any indication, a moderately-favored Anderson Silva is the most dangerous Anderson Silva. Be careful what you wish for, Weidman. Be careful. What. You. Wish. For.
[UPDATED] – 4 p.m.
Well, that was a lot of buildup for nothing. In the hours since this was originally written, Anderson has already improved to just under a 3-to-1 favorite. Still, it seems that the bookies are giving Weidman’s grappling prowess a lot of respect all things considered.
(If 10 cc’s of Desflurane can’t keep this kid down, NOTHING CAN.)
I was there. I was there the last time Anderson Silva was listed asanythingless than a 3-to-1 favorite over his opponent. It was called 2011. Barack Obama was President, George W. Bush was in the White House, and Bill Clinton was running this country into the ground. The event was UFC 126, which was being held in a little hole in the wall town in what is now Nevada. Some fella by the name of Vitor shows up, starts picking off so-called “former middleweight champions.” Before we knew what hit us, he was trying to dethrone old Andy in our own backyard. So Vitor had to go.
Now this fella by the name of Weidman storms into town, flashing them dimes like a big shot and making noise, and wouldn’t you know it, he’s currently listed as one of the smallest underdogs(+165) Anderson has faced in his entire UFC career. It’s a load of claptrap if you ask me; this Weidman feller hasn’t fought in almost a year and is coming off shoulder surgery to boot. But if history is any indication, a moderately-favored Anderson Silva is the most dangerous Anderson Silva. Be careful what you wish for, Weidman. Be careful. What. You. Wish. For.
[UPDATED] – 4 p.m.
Well, that was a lot of buildup for nothing. In the hours since this was originally written, Anderson has already improved to just under a 3-to-1 favorite. Still, it seems that the bookies are giving Weidman’s grappling prowess a lot of respect all things considered.
Dan Henderson fans, get your cash out. MMA Mania gives us the heads-up that Hendo is as high as a +196 underdog for his UFC 157 fight against Lyoto Machida on February 23rd. (In other words, a $100 bet on Henderson would return $196 in profit if he wins.) Considering that Henderson is coming back from a knee injury, it’s understandable that the oddsmakers don’t have complete faith in him. But considering how dangerous Henderson has looked in his last four fights — the epic war with Shogun Rua at UFC 139, and his knockouts of Fedor, Feijao, and Babalu in Strikeforce — it still feels like he’s being sold short.
Then again, you have to consider how Henderson matches up with Machida specifically. Sure, Hendo can turn your lights off with that H-Bomb if you stand in front of him, but he might have a problem with Machida’s skill at evasion and his perfectly-timed attacks from unorthodox angles. Are the odds juicy enough to warrant a bet on the old ‘dog?
Dan Henderson fans, get your cash out. MMA Mania gives us the heads-up that Hendo is as high as a +196 underdog for his UFC 157 fight against Lyoto Machida on February 23rd. (In other words, a $100 bet on Henderson would return $196 in profit if he wins.) Considering that Henderson is coming back from a knee injury, it’s understandable that the oddsmakers don’t have complete faith in him. But considering how dangerous Henderson has looked in his last four fights — the epic war with Shogun Rua at UFC 139, and his knockouts of Fedor, Feijao, and Babalu in Strikeforce — it still feels like he’s being sold short.
Then again, you have to consider how Henderson matches up with Machida specifically. Sure, Hendo can turn your lights off with that H-Bomb if you stand in front of him, but he might have a problem with Machida’s skill at evasion and his perfectly-timed attacks from unorthodox angles. Are the odds juicy enough to warrant a bet on the old ‘dog?
Unlike the freakish mismatches that plagued last weekend’s Strikeforce show, the odds for this Saturday’s UFC on FX 7: Belfort vs. Bisping event in Sao Paulo suggest a very competitive lineup of fights. In fact, two of the matches are virtually dead even, with a razor-thin margin between the favorite and the underdog. Here are the betting lines for the FX main card, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Michael Bisping (-103) vs. Vitor Belfort (-107): This is about as close as it gets in MMA betting, though Belfort still comes in as a slight favorite. The line reflects the divide among fans on how the fight will play out — either Bisping will outstrike and outhustle the Phenom to a decision victory, or Belfort will maul Bisping in short order, finishing him via punches-to-the-back-of-head TKO. If you’re leaning strongly towards one of those results, feel free to put your money where your mouth is. But keep in mind that the fight is scheduled for five rounds, which certainly gives Bisping the edge if he manages to survive the first ten minutes.
Ben Rothwell (+100) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-110): Another close call in terms of odds, but I’m not sure that Gonzaga should be the slight favorite here. To me, he hasn’t yet shaken his reputation as a can-crusher, while Rothwell’s most recent appearance against Brendan Schaub proved him to be a ferocious finisher, hard to rattle, and in the best physical shape of his career.
Unlike the freakish mismatches that plagued last weekend’s Strikeforce show, the odds for this Saturday’s UFC on FX 7: Belfort vs. Bisping event in Sao Paulo suggest a very competitive lineup of fights. In fact, two of the matches are virtually dead even, with a razor-thin margin between the favorite and the underdog. Here are the betting lines for the FX main card, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Michael Bisping (-103) vs. Vitor Belfort (-107): This is about as close as it gets in MMA betting, though Belfort still comes in as a slight favorite. The line reflects the divide among fans on how the fight will play out — either Bisping will outstrike and outhustle the Phenom to a decision victory, or Belfort will maul Bisping in short order, finishing him via punches-to-the-back-of-head TKO. If you’re leaning strongly towards one of those results, feel free to put your money where your mouth is. But keep in mind that the fight is scheduled for five rounds, which certainly gives Bisping the edge if he manages to survive the first ten minutes.
Ben Rothwell (+100) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-110): Another close call in terms of odds, but I’m not sure that Gonzaga should be the slight favorite here. To me, he hasn’t yet shaken his reputation as a can-crusher, while Rothwell’s most recent appearance against Brendan Schaub proved him to be a ferocious finisher, hard to rattle, and in the best physical shape of his career.
C.B. Dollaway (+164) vs. Daniel Sarafian (-165): To refresh your memory, Daniel Sarafian is the TUF Brazil finalist who had to withdraw from his finale fight due to injury. The Sao Paulo native will be making his official UFC debut this weekend, and will face a significant jump in competition against 10-fight UFC veteran CB Dollaway. Sure, Sarafian will have hometown advantage, looked nasty on TUF, and Dollaway has been battling injuries of his own. Nevertheless, Dollaway’s advantage on the mat and experience edge makes the Doberman a worthwhile ‘dog.
Official CagePotato Parlay: A $20 wager on Rothwell + Dollaway + Nurmagomedov would earn you a $128.48 profit on BetUS. And if it hits, all we ask is that you buy one of our t-shirts.
