Nick Diaz fans, it’s time to put your money where your stinkin’ mouths are. MMAFighting gives us the heads-up that UFC 158‘s main event just opened up with Georges St. Pierre as a -430 favorite, and Diaz as a +310 underdog. In other words, a $100 bet on Diaz would net you a $310 profit should the challenger win on March 16th, enough to buy you some of that good weed.
Nick Diaz fans, it’s time to put your money where your stinkin’ mouths are. MMAFighting gives us the heads-up that UFC 158‘s main event just opened up with Georges St. Pierre as a -430 favorite, and Diaz as a +310 underdog. In other words, a $100 bet on Diaz would net you a $310 profit should the challenger win on March 16th, enough to buy you some of that good weed.
“There’s no guarantees with Nick Diaz. I got nine welterweights that are all in the top five on this show, so if he falls out, we’ll still have a GSP fight.”
That’s right. Nine welterweights in the top five at UFC 158, a card that only has six welterweights on it right now. Who knows how many top-five welterweights Dana has on his entire welterweight roster? There could be dozens. Okay, maybe Dana meant “nine welterweights in the top ten,” although that’s still not an accurate statement in relation to UFC 158, and I can’t tell if the hypothetical tenth guy is supposed to be Ben Askren or not.
The more important point is that St. Pierre will defend his belt at UFC 158, with Diaz or without him. So if Diaz gets himself suspended again, maybe Hendricks will get his big moment after all.
According to BestFightOdds, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey opened as a -1500 betting favorite against her UFC 157 challenger Liz Carmouche, who opened at +700. Since then, the odds have leveled out somewhat; SportBet currently has the line at a more reasonable -1110/+690, which means that you’d need to put up $1,110 in order to turn a $100 profit on Ronda if she wins, while betting $100 on Liz would…you know what, I’m not even going to finish that sentence. Please do not bet money on this fight.
The current odds make Rousey vs. Carmouche rank among the most lopsided UFC matchups of all time, which comes as no surprise — before the booking was announced, many UFC fans may not have even been aware of the existence of Liz Carmouche, who is an unknown quantity to everyone except hardcore fans of women’s MMA and Strikeforce. Plus, Carmouche fell short both times she faced champion-level competition, suffering a decision loss to Sarah Kaufman in July 2011 and a submission loss to Marloes Coenen four months prior, although Carmouche was winning that fight until she was stopped.
According to BestFightOdds, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey opened as a -1500 betting favorite against her UFC 157 challenger Liz Carmouche, who opened at +700. Since then, the odds have leveled out somewhat; SportBet currently has the line at a more reasonable -1110/+690, which means that you’d need to put up $1,110 in order to turn a $100 profit on Ronda if she wins, while betting $100 on Liz would…you know what, I’m not even going to finish that sentence. Please do not bet money on this fight.
The current odds make Rousey vs. Carmouche rank among the most lopsided UFC matchups of all time, which comes as no surprise — before the booking was announced, many UFC fans may not have even been aware of the existence of Liz Carmouche, who is an unknown quantity to everyone except hardcore fans of women’s MMA and Strikeforce. Plus, Carmouche fell short both times she faced champion-level competition, suffering a decision loss to Sarah Kaufman in July 2011 and a submission loss to Marloes Coenen four months prior, although Carmouche was winning that fight until she was stopped.
None of Rousey’s previous matches have turned out to be very competitive, and it’s hard to imagine that this one will be any different. (If Liz gets armbarred in the second round as opposed to the first round, she should immediately be ranked the #2 women’s bantamweight in the world.) Is that necessarily a bad thing? A string of highlight-reel finishes from a charismatic champion can go a long way in drawing casual fans to women’s MMA. Think of it this way: Mike Tyson became famous by rolling over outmatched palookas, not by clawing out victories in gritty 12-round wars — and converted hordes of young people to boxing fandom in the process.
Not that we’re calling Ronda Rousey the Mike Tyson of women’s MMA (at least not yet). But maybe a good squash match is just what the sport needs right now.
Since the Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnarreplacement main event at UFC 153 was announced, I’ve been waiting patiently to see what kind of absurd betting line would be tied to this fight, and the oddsmakers didn’t disappoint. As MMAWeekly informs us, Silva has just opened as a -1350 (!) favorite, compared to Stephan Bonnar’s +850 underdog line. Gambling n00b translation: A $1,350 bet on Anderson would net you just a $100 profit if he wins, while a $100 bet on Bonnar would pay off $850 in profit if he does the unthinkable. And if you’re trying to decide which guy to put money on, I can confidently say that either bet would be stupid as fuck.
That -1350 line represents the most lopsided odds for an Anderson Silva fight ever, and even surpasses the -1300 opening line that was given to Jon Jones against Vitor Belfort. In general, once the gambling line passes -1000 for the favorite, it’s a pretty clear sign that the fight is a dangerous squash match that shouldn’t have been booked in the first place. (Example: Cris Cyborg‘s -2000 opening line over Jan Finney, a fight that turned out to be exactly as competitive as we thought it would.)
Since the Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnarreplacement main event at UFC 153 was announced, I’ve been waiting patiently to see what kind of absurd betting line would be tied to this fight, and the oddsmakers didn’t disappoint. As MMAWeekly informs us, Silva has just opened as a -1350 (!) favorite, compared to Stephan Bonnar’s +850 underdog line. Gambling n00b translation: A $1,350 bet on Anderson would net you just a $100 profit if he wins, while a $100 bet on Bonnar would pay off $850 in profit if he does the unthinkable. And if you’re trying to decide which guy to put money on, I can confidently say that either bet would be stupid as fuck.
That -1350 line represents the most lopsided odds for an Anderson Silva fight ever, and even surpasses the -1300 opening line that was given to Jon Jones against Vitor Belfort. In general, once the gambling line passes -1000 for the favorite, it’s a pretty clear sign that the fight is a dangerous squash match that shouldn’t have been booked in the first place. (Example: Cris Cyborg‘s -2000 opening line over Jan Finney, a fight that turned out to be exactly as competitive as we thought it would.)
Again, I’m not trying to convince you to bet on Bonnar here. I’m just saying, maybe on fight night you should go to a sports bar that’s showing the event, look for some poor mark who doesn’t seem to know what’s going on, and casually suggest that you think the black guy is gonna win. If you play your cards right, you might be able to get a free beer out of it.
Fresh off a stellar UFC on FOX last week, the UFC will be looking to build on some much needed momentum heading into this weekend’s UFC 150 card, where Ben Henderson will look to defend his lightweight strap against the man he took it from, Frankie Edgar. Will Colorado’s ridiculously high altitude continue to plague fighter’s cardio as it did at UFC 135 and Fight Night: Florian vs. Lauzon? Possibly, but it’s going to take more than a shortness of breath to stop the Gambling Enabler from paying out, as we’ve landed in the money on our past two events. So join us for a fight-by-fight dissection of UFC 150 and an inside look at how to come away with a significantly fatter wallet. All odds, per usual, are courtesy of BestFightOdds.
Perez is a submissions specialist as is 1-0 in the UFC with a submission via armbar. Ken “Keith” Stone has more UFC experience and has lost two tough bouts to Eddie Wineland and Scott Jorgensen but has since won two straight fights. He has yet to be submitted in his MMA career, so I believe Stone will have enough to fend off Perez’s submissions game and win this fight on the cards.
Fresh off a stellar UFC on FOX last week, the UFC will be looking to build on some much needed momentum heading into this weekend’s UFC 150 card, where Ben Henderson will look to defend his lightweight strap against the man he took it from, Frankie Edgar. Will Colorado’s ridiculously high altitude continue to plague fighter’s cardio as it did at UFC 135 and Fight Night: Florian vs. Lauzon? Possibly, but it’s going to take more than a shortness of breath to stop the Gambling Enabler from paying out, as we’ve landed in the money on our past two events. So join us for a fight-by-fight dissection of UFC 150 and an inside look at how to come away with a significantly fatter wallet. All odds, per usual, are courtesy of BestFightOdds.
Perez is a submissions specialist as is 1-0 in the UFC with a submission via armbar. Ken “Keith” Stone has more UFC experience and has lost two tough bouts to Eddie Wineland and Scott Jorgensen but has since won two straight fights. He has yet to be submitted in his MMA career, so I believe Stone will have enough to fend off Perez’s submissions game and win this fight on the cards.
Chico is making his Octagon debut here and has the ability to grind out Pague in this fight. On the other hand, Pague is the type of fighter to fight his opponent’s fight, which this leads me to believe he may be upset by Camus. Pague is hovering around -200 favorite and I would not be willing to lay that price. I will look for the prop that this fight goes the distance.
Michael Kuiper will be looking for his first win in his second attempt inside the octagon, but he may come out on the short end if Hamman is able to use his size advantage to control this fight. Hovering around pick’em odds, I would place my money on Hamman here. Hamman is only 30 and is a tested veteran in the UFC, I would go again with the prop this fight goes the distance as Kuiper will surely not give away another loss easily.
Nik Lentz NCAA div 1 wrestling should get the job done here. The prop that this fight goes the distance should also be explored. “The Carny “is coming off back to back losing efforts, but actually managed to put in a thrilling effort in his most recent FOTN-earning loss against Evan Dunham at UFC on FOX 2. That said, I believe Mitsuoka will not have an answer for Nik’s ground game and will be frustrated up until the end of this fight with Lentz’s wet blanket routine. Not a great value at 30 cents on the dollar, but Lentz will make it into my parlay.
Tommy Hayden had a tough go in his UFC debut and I think history will repeat itself again as Bermudez has simply fought on another level of competition than that of Hayden. Bermudez will most likely be looking to finish this fight and the line is under -300 which makes parlaying Dennis rather alluring. I do not see this fight going to the cards; a prop the fight does not go the distance may also be a profitable option.
Last time Okami was a -600 favorite, things did not go so well for him. Granted, this time will surely be different, with Okami simply out powering the late replacement Roberts and coming out as the winner, but do you want to lay -600 on Okami? I don’t, because there’s nothing worse than having a parlay crushed by a -600 fighter losing (see Jay Glazer’s reaction to Tito Ortiz beating Ryan Bader from the dana vlogs).
Both fighter’s are coming off very impressive winning performances at the TUF 15 Finale; Holloway thoroughly dominated Pat Schilling and Lawrence broke out the highlight reel head kick KO on John Cofer for good measure. Pick’em odds on this fight are for good reason and I think this fight will be settled inside the distance. Holloway’s stand up is something special, even in a losing effort against Poirier he forced Dustin to take the fight to the ground because “The Diamond” did not like what he was seeing from Max on his feet. I think that the longer this fight goes, the better the chances are that Holloway will win. Not a parlay must, but good value on Holloway here.
I like Guillard as the underdog in this fight. Having trained at Jackson’s with Cerrone leads me to believe that Melvin has the upper hand going into this fight, considering he knows what Cerrone has been up to while training with a camp that Cerrone know’s very little about in the meantime. Now 1-0 with the Blackzilian’s, Guillard showed us that he has finally learned some submission defense in his UFC 148 win over Fabricio Camoes. The question is: What else has Melvin learned that may surprise Cerrone in this fight? I am not counting Cerrone out completely, as this could easily look like Cerrone vs. Stephens with the longer fighter simply getting off first and winning the fight on the outside, but the plus money on Guillard is tempting and I will save some space for a long shot parlay with “The Young Assassin.” This fight may go the distance as well, not so much the high altitude effecting the fighters (as they are both used to training at high altitude), but simply the fact that they are so familiar with each other’s style that we may see a 15 minute chess match.
I want to say Shields and move on here, but Herman simply seems to be the perfect type of fighter to give Jake a ton of problems. Herman is a strong grappler and Jake is returning to MW for the first time here, so couple that with the fact that Herman may be able to deliver his own Hendo like right hand in this fight and we have all the makings for an upset. If Shields is able to get this fight to the ground, will he be able to keep Herman on his back or submit him? It all depends on how strong Jake is now and this is where I am unsure and unwilling to lay -200 on Jake. The fight should go the distance and this is where I will place my money, picking Shields these days is too risky.
I like the bigger, stronger Bendo in this fight. Frankie may use all the footwork he wants and may stick Henderson with the jad for five rounds, but at the end of the day, Ben is simply going to remind us all why Edgar needs to drop down to 145 and start fighting guys his own size. I take nothing away from Frankie and I think he will be a top lightweight if he stays at 155, but Benson is the perfect mix between size and speed for Frankie, where prior opponents like Maynard had the power but lacked the speed to catch Frankie. As this fight goes into the later rounds, Benson should take control and get the win.
Parlay 1
Lentz-Bermudez-Henderson
Parlay 2
Lentz-Hamman-Stone-Henderson
*Parlay 3 (the degen special)
Holloway-Guillard-Henderson-Hamman-Bermudez
Props
-Lentz/Mitsuoka goes the distance
-Herman/Shields goes the distance
-Henderson/Edgar goes the distance
-Bermudez/Hayden does not go the distance
Bet what you feel comfortable with, higher on the parlays and lower on the props.
As an example, if you place $20 on parlay 1 and 2, with $5 on each prop you should be safe, as this was profitable on the past two GAE’s which is where you want to be.
Again, feel free to share hostility when/if these picks fall apart.
Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.
PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)
Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)
Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)
Want to make some real money this weekend? Then come over to my place on Saturday afternoon and be prepared to clean some toilets. Want to make some hypothetical, for-entertainment-purposes-only money this weekend? Then check out the latest UFC 136 betting lines (via BestFightOdds) and read our gambling advice after the jump.
PPV Main Card
Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)
Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+301)
Chael Sonnen (-255) vs. Brian Stann (+227)
Nam Phan (-210) vs. Leonard Garcia (+208)
Melvin Guillard (-312) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)
Spike TV Prelims
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jorge Santiago (+245)
Anthony Pettis (-277) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)
Facebook Prelims
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-210)
Tiequan Zhang (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+115)
Aaron Simpson (-313) vs. Eric Schafer (+300)
Steve Cantwell (-135) vs. Mike Massenzio (+130)
We’ll begin…at the beginning:
The Main Event: It’s a line that should really be dead even. But if somebody’s going to be a favorite here, should it really be Frankie Edgar? After all, he couldn’t beat Gray Maynard in either of their two previous meetings. As a slight underdog, Maynard is worth a small investment.
The Other Good ‘Dogs: A lot of them look good, actually. Chael Sonnen is coming off 14 months of controversy and inactivity, so his -255 feels a little inflated, especially against someone as focused and dangerous as Brian Stann. We all know that Leonard Garcia is bulletproof with judges, so if he can swing and grunt his way to the last bell — and not get finished by Phan — he could always end up stealing another one and doubling your money. And if Demian Maia insists on pretending he’s a striker, he’s asking to get laid out by Jorge Santiago.
The Smart Straight-Bet: Blowouts are the name of the game this weekend, with eight of the 11 matchups sitting at 2-to-1 odds or greater. You won’t get rich betting on the stiff favorites, so take a look at Tiequan Zhang at a modest -120 over Darren Elkins. Both guys are just 1-0 at featherweight, but Zhang’s aggressive grappling attack will give the American a heap of problems.
Stay Away From: Joe Lauzon. Yeah, yeah, everybody loves J-Lau, and his skill set is the perfect one to give Guillard trouble. At +310, why not put money on the grappler’s chance, right? Answer: Because Melvin is far too powerful, and he’s a little savvier about avoiding submissions these days. Guillard’s got this one, probably by KO. The same warning applies for Kenny Florian — tripling your cash on the seasoned challenger might be seductive, but you’ll likely be pissing that money away.
Official CagePotato Parlay: Aldo + Guillard + Pettis + Zhang. $20 returns a $57.18 profit. Not risky enough? Okay, $1,000 returns a $2,858 profit. Now we’re talkin’.
UFC Fight Night 24: Noguiera Vs. Davis happens this Saturday night in Seattle and for once, we completely agree with the betting lines.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+210) vs. Phil Davis (-280):
Phil Davis is a late replacement for Tito Ortiz in this headlining bout against Antonio “Lil’ Nog” Nogueira but is still rightfully the favorite. Both Lil’ […]
UFC Fight Night 24: Noguiera Vs. Davis happens this Saturday night in Seattle and for once, we completely agree with the betting lines.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+210) vs.Phil Davis (-280):
Phil Davis is a late replacement for Tito Ortiz in this headlining bout against Antonio “Lil’ Nog” Nogueira but is still rightfully the favorite. Both Lil’ Nog and Davis are big guys, but as we saw in Nogueira’s fight against Ryan Bader, he can be taken down and Davis just has the upper wrestling hand here.
In a win we feel will also happen on the ground… Dan Hardy has proven he can stand and bang, but he likely will be not have the defense against the bigger Anthony Johnson who should easily take him to the ground and use his prime wrestling skills to win this fight.
DaMarques Johnson has yet to demonstrate consistency on the ground or standing. Amir Sadollah should have solid takedown defense and his kickboxing arsenal to grind out the victory.
To bet on UFC Fight Night 24, click on the icons of your favorite online sportsbook in our Odds Side Bar to the right of our page.
