Unlike the freakish mismatches that plagued last weekend’s Strikeforce show, the odds for this Saturday’s UFC on FX 7: Belfort vs. Bisping event in Sao Paulo suggest a very competitive lineup of fights. In fact, two of the matches are virtually dead even, with a razor-thin margin between the favorite and the underdog. Here are the betting lines for the FX main card, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Michael Bisping (-103) vs. Vitor Belfort (-107): This is about as close as it gets in MMA betting, though Belfort still comes in as a slight favorite. The line reflects the divide among fans on how the fight will play out — either Bisping will outstrike and outhustle the Phenom to a decision victory, or Belfort will maul Bisping in short order, finishing him via punches-to-the-back-of-head TKO. If you’re leaning strongly towards one of those results, feel free to put your money where your mouth is. But keep in mind that the fight is scheduled for five rounds, which certainly gives Bisping the edge if he manages to survive the first ten minutes.
Ben Rothwell (+100) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-110): Another close call in terms of odds, but I’m not sure that Gonzaga should be the slight favorite here. To me, he hasn’t yet shaken his reputation as a can-crusher, while Rothwell’s most recent appearance against Brendan Schaub proved him to be a ferocious finisher, hard to rattle, and in the best physical shape of his career.
Unlike the freakish mismatches that plagued last weekend’s Strikeforce show, the odds for this Saturday’s UFC on FX 7: Belfort vs. Bisping event in Sao Paulo suggest a very competitive lineup of fights. In fact, two of the matches are virtually dead even, with a razor-thin margin between the favorite and the underdog. Here are the betting lines for the FX main card, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:
Michael Bisping (-103) vs. Vitor Belfort (-107): This is about as close as it gets in MMA betting, though Belfort still comes in as a slight favorite. The line reflects the divide among fans on how the fight will play out — either Bisping will outstrike and outhustle the Phenom to a decision victory, or Belfort will maul Bisping in short order, finishing him via punches-to-the-back-of-head TKO. If you’re leaning strongly towards one of those results, feel free to put your money where your mouth is. But keep in mind that the fight is scheduled for five rounds, which certainly gives Bisping the edge if he manages to survive the first ten minutes.
Ben Rothwell (+100) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-110): Another close call in terms of odds, but I’m not sure that Gonzaga should be the slight favorite here. To me, he hasn’t yet shaken his reputation as a can-crusher, while Rothwell’s most recent appearance against Brendan Schaub proved him to be a ferocious finisher, hard to rattle, and in the best physical shape of his career.
C.B. Dollaway (+164) vs. Daniel Sarafian (-165): To refresh your memory, Daniel Sarafian is the TUF Brazil finalist who had to withdraw from his finale fight due to injury. The Sao Paulo native will be making his official UFC debut this weekend, and will face a significant jump in competition against 10-fight UFC veteran CB Dollaway. Sure, Sarafian will have hometown advantage, looked nasty on TUF, and Dollaway has been battling injuries of his own. Nevertheless, Dollaway’s advantage on the mat and experience edge makes the Doberman a worthwhile ‘dog.
Official CagePotato Parlay: A $20 wager on Rothwell + Dollaway + Nurmagomedov would earn you a $128.48 profit on BetUS. And if it hits, all we ask is that you buy one of our t-shirts.
(If you ever needed a sign that Photoshop is out of control in this country, look no further than the Koopa Troopas facing off in this photo.)
By Dan “Get Off Me” George
This Saturday night, Zuffa will close out 2012 with a rematch between former UFC champion Cain Velasquez and current heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos. It has since been revealed that both fighters were injured heading into their original matchup (cue the guy who says “all fighters fight with injuries”), so there are a lot of extraneous factors heading into the rematch that you should seriously consider before placing your bets.
With a 3-4 record over the past 7 UFC shows, the GAE has slipped into the red for the first time since UFC 148 (thanks in no small part to that God damned injury curse) and we need a boost to avoid dining on Newfoundland steak and mashed potatoes in 2013. UFC on Fox 5 was a particularly cruel mistress, and like a Diaz brother taking a realtor’s exam, the result was a miserable failure. So follow us after the jump as we keep it short and sweet in the hopes of turning a profit for UFC 155: Dos Santos vs. Velasquez 2.
Leonard Garcia will be looking to avoid his fourth consecutive loss against a young up-and-comer out of Hawaii in Max Holloway. Holloway will enjoy a 12yr advantage in the father time category and I believe Garcia gives him the stand up fight he wants on Saturday night. Holloway will be too fast and this may very well look like a Cerrone/Garcia barnyard sparring session, with Holloway playing the role of “The Cowboy.” Max makes the parlay list and wins in an exciting affair as “Bad Boy” tries to find the mark with those crazy hands of his while Holloway picks him apart from the outside.
(If you ever needed a sign that Photoshop is out of control in this country, look no further than the Koopa Troopas facing off in this photo.)
By Dan “Get Off Me” George
This Saturday night, Zuffa will close out 2012 with a rematch between former UFC champion Cain Velasquez and current heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos. It has since been revealed that both fighters were injured heading into their original matchup (cue the guy who says “all fighters fight with injuries”), so there are a lot of extraneous factors heading into the rematch that you should seriously consider before placing your bets.
With a 3-4 record over the past 7 UFC shows, the GAE has slipped into the red for the first time since UFC 148 (thanks in no small part to that God damned injury curse) and we need a boost to avoid dining on Newfoundland steak and mashed potatoes in 2013. UFC on Fox 5 was a particularly cruel mistress, and like a Diaz brother taking a realtor’s exam, the result was a miserable failure. So follow us after the jump as we keep it short and sweet in the hopes of turning a profit for UFC 155: Dos Santos vs. Velasquez 2.
Leonard Garcia will be looking to avoid his fourth consecutive loss against a young up-and-comer out of Hawaii in Max Holloway. Holloway will enjoy a 12yr advantage in the father time category and I believe Garcia gives him the stand up fight he wants on Saturday night. Holloway will be too fast and this may very well look like a Cerrone/Garcia barnyard sparring session, with Holloway playing the role of “The Cowboy.” Max makes the parlay list and wins in an exciting affair as “Bad Boy” tries to find the mark with those crazy hands of his while Holloway picks him apart from the outside.
In a PPV card-worthy affair, two of the top bantamweight contenders do battle to see who moves up the ladder in the 135lbs division. Both fighters are coming off equally impressive KO victories — Wineland stopping Jorgensen and Pickett finishing Jabouin. While I believe Pickett’s advantage is on the ground here, something tells me Pickett may opt to strike with Eddie, which basically is where Wineland has his best chance of finding victory. Pickett may only need “One Punch” to stop fights, but he sure likes to take more than one punch during said fights, and I believe that where Jabouin did not have the power to gain Brad’s respect, Wineland will. At almost even money, I like Wineland to outwork Pickett and take this fight via decision, as both fighters are very difficult to finish.
In what may be a microcosm of 2012 for the UFC, this fight has suspensions, injuries and short notice replacements all wrapped together in one main card fight. Derek Brunson may be the first fighter to ever make his UFC debut coming off of back-to-back losses, but I suppose it has been that kind of year for Zuffa. I like the -150 territory with Leben as the small favorite, but until I see how “The Crippler” looks in the octagon, I will stay away from placing such a wild card match up in any parlays.
Cashing in as a huge underdog in his last outing, Alan Belcher comes into this fight at even money against a career top five middleweight in Yushin Okami. This fight is close at the books and comes down to where this fight will take place, on the feet with Belcher getting the better of Okami or on the ground with Okami on top winning in the eyes of the judges. I am not entirely sure if Belcher will shy away from the ground here or welcome a grappling affair with Okami, but if the latter is true I do not like his odds against Yushin. Belcher may keep this fight standing but I am unsure if he will be able to and ultimately will not place this fight in a parlay. Belcher by TKO or Okami by decision (just like Gustafsson vs Shogun with better odds).
How do you get pick ‘em odds when you place a fighter coming off back-to-back victories over top tier 185ers against an up-and-coming prospect whose highest profile victory came against Court McGee? I’m not quite sure, but the argument that Philippou can outbox and even stop the Barbarian is just as plausible as the notion that Boetsch could find a way to win in his last two bouts, yet he did all the same. I think training with guys like Chris Weidman will serve Costa well in this fight, but Boetsch is a cut above any competition Costa has faced before. That being said, I like Philippou to stop the takedown and steal Boetsch’s momentum in the 185 division.
Jim Miller is a little over -200 against the submission ace Joe Lauzon, who is definitely the favorite to win if this fight does not get out of the first round. Miller has shown that he has some submissions skills against strong grapplers (Oliveira) as well as some difficulties (Nate Diaz), but I see the more durable Miller being able to take this fight into the latter rounds, where Lauzon generally seems to fade. Not going to include him in the parlay, but I think Miller bounces back from his loss, out wrestles Lauzon, and wins by decision.
I do not believe there is a fighter in the HW division who can take the belt from JDS right now, plain and simple. Cain needs to take this fight down to the ground if he is going to win, something he has acknowledged and something that no one has been able to do to dos Santos yet. Did Cain not hit his takedown in the first fight due to a torn ligament in his knee? Or was “Cigano” simply able to avoid the takedown like he has been able to do against every opponent who has tried before in the UFC? Until I see Junior put on his back or even rocked during stand up exchanges, I will continue to surmise that these things won’t happen to him. Cain may once again be the biggest threat JDS has faced, but the line now is -200 because the public is starting to believe that maybe Cain will not be able to take JDS down repeatedly over the course of the fight without catching a KO shot from the champ first. I think JDS wins this fight inside the distance and retains the HW title.
Parlay 1:
Holloway-JDS ($30 wins $30)
Parlay 2:
Guillard-JDS ($10 wins $17)
Parlay 3:
Holloway-Wineland ($10 wins $14)
Here’s hoping to see you all healthy, happy and wealthy in 2013, Nation. Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours.
This may be the 5th installment of the UFC on FOX, but somehow it feels like the very first time the UFC will be showcased for the mass cable viewing audience. With a card that far and away surpasses any previous cable-accessible card in the sport’s history, FOX has dubbed this week “Fight Week” and rightfully so. Both parties seem to be maximizing their potential for UFC on FOX 5, but we’ll have to wait until Saturday to determine whether or not the key to success on network television is having both title fights with a solid supporting card and the steady promotion FOX has offered for this event in the days leading up to it.
With a 3-3 record over the past 6 UFC PPV’s, it’s time for The Gambling Addiction Enabler to sink or swim (or specifically, find ourselves at the bottom of the ocean with a fancy matching pair of cinder blocks for shoes). So Join us as we highlight some of the undercard and all the main card bouts in the hopes of bringing you Taters some early holiday funds. All the betting lines come courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.
By Dan “Get Off Me” George
This may be the 5th installment of the UFC on FOX, but somehow it feels like the very first time the UFC will be showcased for the mass cable viewing audience. With a card that far and away surpasses any previous cable-accessible card in the sport’s history, FOX has dubbed this week “Fight Week” and rightfully so. Both parties seem to be maximizing their potential for UFC on FOX 5, but we’ll have to wait until Saturday to determine whether or not the key to success on network television is having both title fights with a solid supporting card and the steady promotion FOX has offered for this event in the days leading up to it.
With a 3-3 record over the past 6 UFC PPV’s, it’s time for The Gambling Addiction Enabler to sink or swim (or specifically, find ourselves at the bottom of the ocean with a fancy matching pair of cinder blocks for shoes). So Join us as we highlight some of the undercard and all the main card bouts in the hopes of bringing you Taters some early holiday funds. All the betting lines come courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.
Hovering around -270 Jorgensen makes the parlay must category. John Albert is 1-2 in the UFC facing opponents who I believe Jorgensen would beat hands down. It was not long ago that Scott went the distance with a guy named Renan Barao (maybe you’ve heard of him?) and I cannot see Albert, despite being the bigger fighter, being able to dictate how this fight goes. Jorgensen is one of those fighters who loses fights against the upper talent in the division but destroys fighters who are not part of that group (*cough* Ken Stone *cough*).
Even though we are talking 30 cents on the dollar territory, having a victory already under his belt against one of the better 145 pounders fighting a lesser caliber fighter is a good look for Dennis Siver. Phan is solid fighter, but not an underdog who can win here up against a better striker who has plenty experience fighting higher level UFC opponents. It might not be a steamrolling, but Siver should be able to out strike Nam and keep this fight standing possibly taking a decision on the cards.
Tim Means (-340) vs Albert Trujillo (+280)
Albert Trujillo will be making his UFC debut against Tim Means, who is sporting a perfect 2-0 record in the promotion. Another -300 fighter who is parlay bound, Tim Means has lost just once in the last seven years and has half a foot height advantage like he did in his last bout, which he finished in the first round in absolutely brutal fashion. Trujillo may be able to pose the puncher’s chance here and be tough enough to take this fight the distance, but I do not see him being able to outwork “The Dirty Bird” in this one.
Anytime there is a 10 year gap between fighters, it is generally wise to go with the younger fighter and this is surely the case with Stephens (26yrs old( vs Edwards (36yrs old). This fight should be entertaining and I believe Stephens is the stronger fighter who is just as technical in the striking department and equally skilled on the ground as Edwards. Stephens has gone the distance against arguably two of the top 5 lightweights in his past two bouts while Yves has fought mid level lightweights since returning to the UFC with mixed results. A -200 line that says Stephens will not get KO’d, subbed, or outworked by a 36yr old lands this fight on the parlay as well.
Matt Brown has rallied off more wins in the past year than Swick has had fights, but “Quick” dealt with adversity well in his last fight against Demarques Johnson and proved he can finish a fight with his accurate striking. I believe this fight shows Brown as the small underdog based on the fact that Swick has the potential to win this fight standing or on the ground. Stephen Thompson had success standing against Brown but was a fish out of water on the ground and I believe Swick has the skill to keep this fight standing while out striking “The Immortal.” I like Swick and the nearly even money line is worth a look.
Another 10 year difference in age combined with the fact that BJ has not found the fountain of youth beyond his improved physical appearance…again…has me leaning on Rory to make this fight look like round 3 of Fitch/Penn. MacDonald is very hittable and BJ has some of the best hands in the UFC, but Rory trains with GSP, has takedowns like GSP, and should not have much issue bringing BJ to the ground in this fight. I think BJ is in the wrong weight class and despite having an excellent ground game, Rory may just be too strong for BJ’s submissions game. He will likely take risks to deliver his trademark GnP to BJ with little regard to the threat of being submitted. I’m not counting BJ out completely, but we have seen the Prodigy move to 170 before and the outcome was a draw and a loss leading to a retirement announcement.
A little over a year and a half ago, Shogun was +170 going into his fight with Jon Jones as the LHW champion. This Saturday against Gustafsson, Rua is right around +185 and this may be an opportunity to take advantage of picking a solid underdog to win. Gustafsson has not fought the same level of competition as Rua in the UFC and while he has looked impressive in victory, the names he has beaten do not jump off the page just yet. Gustafsson could very well take this fight to the ground and control Rua early and often looking for a decision win, but Rua has the ability to end this fight on the feet and on the ground if he hurts Alexander on the feet. I see Gustafsson by decision or Rua by KO or Submission.
Henderson is undefeated since moving over to the UFC and will be looking to defend his title against his toughest test yet. Had I not seen Nate’s last fight against Jim Miller, I would quickly predict Diaz to be taken down by Bendo and grinded out over 5 rounds. I made the mistake of picking Miller over Diaz precisely due to the fact that I believed Miller would be able to take Diaz down when the striking game was not going in his favor. What I did not know was that Nate has finally developed his take down defense, which leads me to believe he will be able to stuff the lightweight kingpin’s efforts to bring this fight to the ground. In the past, Nate has been taken down by Stevenson, Guida and Maynard with all those bouts resulting in losing efforts. Something clicked against Miller (who had never been finished) and Diaz controlled the fight from the get-go. Benson seems to be impervious to submissions, but if he allows Diaz to lock in a guillotine (like Cerrone) or take his back (like Pettis) he may find out how good Gracie Jiu Jitsu really is. Like Pettis, Diaz is heavy on his lead leg, which will offer a nice target for Henderson to hit, but Bendo was unable to take advantage of this against “Showtime” and I believe the same will happen with Nate. With an advantage in the stand up and submissions department, I will go with Nate Diaz to submit Ben Henderson to become the new UFC lightweight champion.
(Well, at least the poster is as half-assed as the main event.)
By Dan “Get Off Me” George
I’ll be honest, when I first heard of the new main event for UFC 153, I thought we were all the victims of some intricate ruse on the UFC’s part. Surely the head honchos at Zuffa didn’t consider a “fun” squash match on the level of Joe Lauzon vs Jens Pulver to be the best possible option for a country that was recently denied the biggest fight of all time, right? But I guess when an injury curse on the level of 2012’s hits, you do what you can to simply stay afloat, and in that sense the UFC has succeeded.
Luckily for us, the UFC has also succeeded in putting together a card that provides plenty of opportunities to prosper from a wagering perspective as well. This time around, I will attempt to follow the lead of Jared “Money Bags” Jones, who provided both the gift and thecurse for UFC on FX 5: Browne vs. Silva with his parlay picks, so follow me as I highlight a few names on the preliminary cards for Facebook and FX and breakdowns of all fights on the PPV portion of UFC 153. All betting odds come courtesy of BestFightOdds.
Facebook + FX prelims
Reza Madadi stands out in the two FB fights; Sweden has been hot in the octagon lately and I think “Mad Dog” (not Anthony Macias) at around -200 has the right combination of size and all around ground advantage to deal with Marcello’s submissions game and win his second straight UFC fight.
Gleison Tibau hovering around -160 should be able to stifle fellow Brazilian Francisco Drinaldo and find a way back into the UFC win column after dropping a hard fought loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 148. Tibau has fought solid competition throughout his lengthy UFC career and I do not think Francisco has the right tools to win this fight. An underdog that may be worth a look is Renee Forte at around +200 against Sergio Moraes, who dropped a unanimous decision last time out due in part to his in-ring demeanor, which did not seem to go over well with the judges.
(Well, at least the poster is as half-assed as the main event.)
By Dan “Get Off Me” George
I’ll be honest, when I first heard of the new main event for UFC 153, I thought we were all the victims of some intricate ruse on the UFC’s part. Surely the head honchos at Zuffa didn’t consider a “fun” squash match on the level of Joe Lauzon vs Jens Pulver to be the best possible option for a country that was recently denied the biggest fight of all time, right? But I guess when an injury curse on the level of 2012′s hits, you do what you can to simply stay afloat, and in that sense the UFC has succeeded.
Luckily for us, the UFC has also succeeded in putting together a card that provides plenty of opportunities to prosper from a wagering perspective as well. This time around, I will attempt to follow the lead of Jared “Money Bags” Jones, who provided both the gift and thecurse for UFC on FX 5: Browne vs. Silva with his parlay picks, so follow me as I highlight a few names on the preliminary cards for Facebook and FX and breakdowns of all fights on the PPV portion of UFC 153. All betting odds come courtesy of BestFightOdds.
Facebook + FX prelims
Reza Madadi stands out in the two FB fights; Sweden has been hot in the octagon lately and I think “Mad Dog” (not Anthony Macias) at around -200 has the right combination of size and all around ground advantage to deal with Marcello’s submissions game and win his second straight UFC fight.
Gleison Tibau hovering around -160 should be able to stifle fellow Brazilian Francisco Drinaldo and find a way back into the UFC win column after dropping a hard fought loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 148. Tibau has fought solid competition throughout his lengthy UFC career and I do not think Francisco has the right tools to win this fight. An underdog that may be worth a look is Renee Forte at around +200 against Sergio Moraes, who dropped a unanimous decision last time out due in part to his in-ring demeanor, which did not seem to go over well with the judges.
The line on Maia has steadily climbed towards the -160 area, and despite many picking him to lose against Kim in his WW debut, the BJJ whiz out grappled one of the best WW in the world. Story fights best when he can impose his will, but against Maia, clinching against the fence or taking the fight to the ground may not be the best strategy to win. Maia makes the parlay and remains undefeated at 170lbs.
The only thing that sticks out here (like a finger to the eye! *rimshot*) is that Wagner caught Davis once in their first fight. I am not rushing to the window to lay -350 and up on Phil Davis in Brazil as I need to see more from the American wrestling standout to pay that kind of price fighting in Wagner’s back yard.
This is one of those Old School vs. New School fights, a more or less one-dimensional fighter against a more well rounded fighter. Silva has a fantastic sprawl and represents the new breed of fighter who use defensive wrestling to compliment a strong stand up game. Jon Fitch will no doubt fight hard, but I think his old school style may fail him for a second time in a row for the first time in his career. I am going with Silva sitting at -140 for the parlay as I do not think Fitch will be able to win the stand up game or keep Silva on the ground long enough to take the fight on the cards.
I’m on the Glover bandwagon even with the steep price coming in around -400. Trained by everyone from Marco Ruas to John Hackleman and having such sparring partners as Chuck Liddell at his disposal, Glover may just know a thing or two about how to handle himself in the stand up exchange with Fabio. It will be interesting to see if Teixeira attempts to show off his grappling skills in this fight or times a perfect counter to a Maldonado body shot, but it seems like in either case, Glover is ending this fight and stamping his name towards the top of the 205 division. I like the prop that this fight does not go the distance and perhaps ends before the half way mark of the contest.
I want to lay it down on Big Nog and I think the fight plays well into his skill set, but coming off a serious injury against a fairly experienced younger, bigger fighter is a tough spot for the legend here. I do not see this fight going the distance and I would rather sit back and enjoy Antonio’s return as the betting favorite and see if the fight ends before the 15 minute mark.
For the pastseveralUFCevents, CagePotato reader/contributor Dan “Get Off Me” George has been holding down the Gambling Addiction Enabler’s with the poise and classiness of a 16th century Bolognese swordsman. Unfortunately for you, he only likes to bet on the big time PPV events, so you’re stuck with me for the time being. Fortunately for you, I write a lot less than he does and love to get reckless with my hard earned cash, so let’s do this! Listed below are the odds for UFC on FX: Browne vs. Bigfoot, courtesy of BestFightOdds, followed by my advice which simply put has never been wrong not once ever.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Yves Edwards (+175) vs. Jeremy Stephens (-225)
Danny Castillo (+130) vs. Michael Johnson (-160)
Dennis Hallman (+190) vs. Thiago Tavares (-250)
Shane Roller (+150) vs. Jacob Volkmann (-180)
Diego Nunes (-180) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+150)
Phil Harris (+230) vs. Darren Uyenoyama (-290)
Marcus LeVesseur (-105) vs. Carlo Prater (-125)
Mike Pierce (-170) vs. Aaron Simpson (+150)
Thoughts…
For the pastseveralUFCevents, CagePotato reader/contributor Dan “Get Off Me” George has been holding down the Gambling Addiction Enabler’s with the poise and classiness of a 16th century Bolognese swordsman. Unfortunately for you, he only likes to bet on the big time PPV events, so you’re stuck with me for the time being. Fortunately for you, I write a lot less than he does and love to get reckless with my hard earned cash, so let’s do this! Listed below are the odds for UFC on FX: Browne vs. Bigfoot, courtesy of BestFightOdds, followed by my advice which simply put has never been wrong not once ever.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Yves Edwards (+175) vs. Jeremy Stephens (-225)
Danny Castillo (+130) vs. Michael Johnson (-160)
Dennis Hallman (+190) vs. Thiago Tavares (-250)
Shane Roller (+150) vs. Jacob Volkmann (-180)
Diego Nunes (-180) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+150)
Phil Harris (+230) vs. Darren Uyenoyama (-290)
Marcus LeVesseur (-105) vs. Carlo Prater (-125)
Mike Pierce (-170) vs. Aaron Simpson (+150)
Thoughts…
As I previously mentioned, I am going to be short and sweet for this week’s enabler. That means no prop bets and no fight-by-fight analysis, just a straight look at who I think is being under/overvalued and a suggested parlay.
The Good Dogs: Your best chances at upsets in my opinion are heavily based around the grappling-oriented gameplans of several fighters on the card. Hallman vs. Tavares, Volkmann vs. Roller, and Castillo vs. Johnson will be determined by the abilities of Volkmann, Hallman, and Castillo to get the fight to the ground and grapple out a decision. In all three cases, you are looking at only a slight to moderate underdog hovering in the +150 to +200 range. Of these three matches, the person who stands the best chance of implementing this gameplan is Dennis Hallman, who holds a notable size advantage over most every lightweight out there including Tavares. Although he has looked great lately and has a solid Jiu-Jitsu base, I think Hallman should be able stay heavy on top of Tavares and avoid getting submitted long enough to score a close decision victory.
While we all know that Shane Roller is undoubtedly more well rounded than Jacob Volkmann, we also know that it takes a hell of a wrestler to deal with the grappling prowess of the Minnesotan. Roller, while being a talented grappler in his own right, does not lead me to believe that he can defend Volkmann’s takedowns when a wrestler like Danny Castillo couldn’t. Volkmann has shown that he can be submitted by an opponent with an offensive guard, but the key to a Roller victory here is going to be keeping the fight standing. Roller showed in the Thiago Tavares fight that he does pack some power, so if you think he’ll be able to fend off Volkmann’s takedowns for long enough to land a haymaker, I’d suggest a wager on him as well. Personally, I just don’t think that will be the case. Castillo vs. Johnson is in the same vein. Johnson will be looking to keep things on the feet, but Castillo is a stellar grappler who is strong on top and will probably be looking to exploit Johnson’s somewhat weak submission defense. If he is able to get Johnson to the mat in the first round, expect him to dictate the action for the rest of the fight.
There is one other option: Bart Palaszewski vs. Diego Nunes.
This fight is a little easier to gauge: Both men are primarily strikers, both are coming off losses, and both are 1-2 in their past 3. The difference in their striking lies in pure aggressiveness; Nunes is known for using his kicks to keep his opponents at bay and has shown little killer instinct in the past couple of years, whereas “Bartimus” loves to drag things into a good old fashioned brawl and let the fists fly. Bart should also hold an advantage in the grappling game, so expect to see him utilize some clinch work and dirty boxing to eek out a decision over Nunes if things get hairy on the feet.
Come to think of it, that was pretty much a fight-by-fight analysis. MOVING ON.
Stay the Hell Away From: The main event. Antonio Silva is not listed as a big enough dog to risk a bet on and Browne has notched impressive victories over Stefan Struve and Chad Griggs in between weak performances against Cheick Kongo and Rob Broughton. Browne should easily take this, but you don’t want to risk your parlay on whether or not he’ll have an off night.
Official CagePotato Parlay: Pierce – Stephens – Dodson – Ellenberger
Official CagePotato Parlay #2: Pierce – Hallman – Dodson
Grab your cowboy hats and pack up your saddles my fellow CP readers, because this weekend we are headed to the home of the world famous Calgary Stampede, Calgary, Alberta, Canada for UFC 149 Barao vs Faber! From a wagering standpoint, this card is pretty much a prime example of why bookies offer MMA betting lines, as this card is chock full of close fights and odds that will surely entice the gambling public as well as crush the majority of parlays, all the while raking in money for the house.
Luckily for you (or not), we do not have to go on the cuff for this card, as those who followed UFC 148’s GAE were rewarded with a 4 team parlay that paid out 7 to 1 at the window. All betting odds are courtesy of BestFightOdds.com, so join me as I try to offer some insight on how to go after plus units on Saturday’s upcoming card.
Both fighters have strong submission skills, but I believe Caraway is the favorite because the majority of the public believe “Kid Lighting” is the better submission fighter out of the two. At around -200, Caraway should have what it takes to out-grapple his Canadian counterpart and find a way to win this fight. This may be stretching my psychic abilities to the max, but upon victory, I expect Caraway to announce that he is undergoing a sex change, signing with Strikeforce, and challenging Ronda Rousey to a “loser leaves town” match at 135 lbs. Any takers?
(We’re going ((win)) streaking!!)
By Dan “Get Off Me” George
Grab your cowboy hats and pack up your saddles my fellow CP readers, because this weekend we are headed to the home of the world famous Calgary Stampede, Calgary, Alberta, Canada for UFC 149 Barao vs Faber! From a wagering standpoint, this card is pretty much a prime example of why bookies offer MMA betting lines, as this card is chock full of close fights and odds that will surely entice the gambling public as well as crush the majority of parlays, all the while raking in money for the house.
Luckily for you (or not), we do not have to go on the cuff for this card, as those who followed UFC 148’s GAE were rewarded with a 4 team parlay that paid out 7 to 1 at the window. All betting odds are courtesy of BestFightOdds.com, so join me as I try to offer some insight on how to go after plus units on Saturday’s upcoming card.
Both fighters have strong submission skills, but I believe Caraway is the favorite because the majority of the public believe “Kid Lighting” is the better submission fighter out of the two. At around -200, Caraway should have what it takes to out-grapple his Canadian counterpart and find a way to win this fight. This may be stretching my psychic abilities to the max, but upon victory, I expect Caraway to announce that he is undergoing a sex change, signing with Strikeforce, and challenging Ronda Rousey to a “loser leaves town” match at 135 lbs. Any takers?
It has been a long time coming for CP’s own Ryan Jimmo, who will be riding a 16-fight win streak and fighting in his own backyard against the always tough (not to mention streaking) Australian vet Anthony Perosh. This fight boils down to whether or not Jimmo can find himself on top of Perosh for sustained periods of the fight en route to scoring a stoppage or decision win (likely the latter). I can’t pick a winner here, but I will go with the prop that the fight goes over 2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance. Jimmo will not be easily submitted and Perosh will not be easily finished; those are the only things I am certain of in this fight.
Rolande Delorme (+107) vs. Francisco Rivera (-117)
TUF 14 alum Roland Delorme has looked better with each appearance in the octagon, most recently “stunning” than submitting slight favorite and fellow Canuck Nick Denis at UFC on FOX 3. That said, I still think Francisco is the better all around fighter and is only a slight favorite because of where this event is taking place. I see Delorme possibly being able to find himself on the ground in favorable positions with Rivera, but Rivera’s no slouch, and should be able to control the fight on the feet and fend off most of what Delorme has to offer on the ground. I would just enjoy this fight and take some notes for future reference.
I’ll put it simply: If this goes the distance, McGee is going down. Nick was able to best McGee in their bout back on TUF 11, and it’s not like Ring hasn’t been gifted decisions in the past (Riki Fukuda). Considering that the heroic tale of Nick Ring thwarting a mugging has captivated the local community, I would not be surprised to see him pull out another close decision in his fight with McGee, thanks in no small part to the seedy underbelly of both Canada and MMA judging in general. That’s right, the fix is in and I’m calling it. I think Court has hit a plateau of sorts, and unless he presses forward and tries to finish this fight, he may become a victim of that round bacon-eating, Molson-drinking excuse for a crowd (I kid, I kid). Again, a prop bet that this fight is decided by the judges will be where I look at laying my money.
Matt Riddle has consistently shown that he is willing to fight for the fans (look no further than his most recent win over Henry Martinez) and I believe that, while he could lay-n-pray his way to victory here, he may just go out and stand toe-to-toe with Clements. Unless Riddle has made a marked improvement in his striking game, I am going to lean on the Canuck as the underdog to find a way to win this fight by outgunning Riddle.
File this one under “bad odds.” Much like with the Mendes/Mckenzie fight at UFC 148, the best opportunity to make some money here is by finding a prop on Ebersole winning inside the distance. I do not see this fight going the distance, so this is where anything near -400 territory is ignored in favor of even money on the prop side of the book.
All signs point towards Jordan and the price is ultra alluring. This line has recently tipped in favor of Jordan, but like with Riki Fukuda at UFC 148, line movement is not gospel and often can be misleading. In this instance, Jordan is the favorite and seems to have all the tools to stop Kongo with his striking if he keeps it on the feet and avoids Cheick’s unconventional style of GnP (shorts grabbing, testicle shattering, etc). I really want to say Jordan takes this by TKO, but I can’t ignore Cheick’s ability to pull wins/draws/decisions out of his ass when he is counted out by the public. If there is plus money on the prop that this fight goes the distance, I will be looking to put my money there, but picking a winner could be a parlay crusher.
While I want to suggest Tim Boetsch will find a way to take this fight down on the cards, or take advantage of a gassed Lombard as the fight goes on, I keep picturing Boetsch moving forward and exchanging with Hector en route to suddenly finding himself looking up at the lights. It is no news that Hector hits harder than anyone Boetsch has faced before and I think Hector will be able to find Boetsch’s off switch before the end of the third round. Boetsch does not throw the straightest of punches and his constantly pressing style plays right into Hector’s powerhouse hands.
That being said, at Boetsch’s current rate, even a small bet could pay off if Lombard decided to come down with a case of the octagon jitters. “The Barbarian” doesn’t have nearly as much to prove as Lombard, who has likely been under a tremendous amount of pressure and stress to prove that he is more than a glorified can crusher, so a small bet on Boetsch wouldn’t be a terrible idea, just an incredibly risky one. In either case, just keep it the hell away from your parlay.
I have heard that Barao looks depleted and so on, but I contribute this to his travel to the great white north more than anything. I think come fight night, Barao makes Faber his 30th straight victim for more reasons than I have time to list. Simply put, this feels like Aldo/Faber 2, and like his training partner from Nova Uniao, Barao will find Faber’s lead leg with ease while picking “The California Kid” apart using his reach and those devastating knee’s. The -200 price tag is another reason that Barao is a parlay must here. Currently 0-4 in his last 4 title fights, Faber is going to show us what he does best as of late when gold is on the line, push the fight to the limit but come up short in the end.
Parlay 1
Caraway-Clements-Barao
Parlay 2(Bellator bonus)
Zaromskis-Wiuff-Barao
Props
-Jimmo/Perosh goes the distance
-Ring/McGee goes the distance
-Ebersole/Head does not go the distance
-Ebersole wins inside the distance
Bet what you feel comfortable with and may the winners be yours!
As always, please share your thoughts on who you think will win this Saturday night in the comments section.
