Tag: UFC News

UFC on Fuel TV 4 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part 2

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani In another fight changed due to injury, the UFC on Fuel TV 4 opener will feature Anthony Njokuani and Rafael Dos Anjos who steps in to replace Paul Taylor..


Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani

In another fight changed due to injury, the UFC on Fuel TV 4 opener will feature Anthony Njokuani and Rafael Dos Anjos who steps in to replace Paul Taylor. Normally, the UFC likes to start their cards with a fight between lighter weight fighters who are likely to stand and strike to get the crowd into the event and hook the television audience. With Njokuani and Taylor, that would have been the case. Instead, we will see a classic grappler versus striker matchup as Dos Anjos will look to get Njokuani to the ground and work his black belt level jiu-jitsu.

Njokuani is one of the best strikers in the lightweight division. His long lean frame gives him a huge reach advantage against just about every other fighter in the division including Dos Anjos. His gameplan is pretty much the same for every fight. He looks to use his reach to keep his opponent at a distance and strike his way to victory. He is capable of a knockout but is not known for finishing and if he does earn a finish, it usually comes late in the fight due more to an accumulation of strikes than to the power of any one individual strike. He is 2-2 in his UFC career since moving over from the WEC with wins against John Makdessi and Andre Winner and losses against Edson Barboza and Danny Castillo. His performance against Makdessi in his last appearance was particularly impressive as he used his length to dominate with kicks. But he’ll need to be in even better form if he wants to put together back to back victories as Dos Anjos represents a step up in competition. Dos Anjos is mainly known as a jiu-jitsu fighter who looks to get his opponents to the mat and submit them. He has earned half of his sixteen career victories via submission including his last victory against Kamal Shalorus by rear naked choke. However, he set up the choke with a head kick that dropped Shalorus showing an improvement in his striking ability. Dos Anjos has been up and down in his UFC career with a 5-4 record but a victory against Njokuani would earn him back to back victories for the first time since 2010.

This fight is likely to be determined by whether or not Dos Anjos succeeds in landing the takedown. He showed improved striking against Shalorus but he is not on Njokuani’s level in that area and he will struggle to close the distance against the reach advantage of his opponent. The last fighter to get Njokuani down and control him was Danny Castillo. And even he struggled to maintain any kind of dominant position. Dos Anjos’s takedowns are not on that level and he is likely to struggle to get Njokuani down and keep him down. Expect Njokuani to use his reach advantage to keep Dos Anjos at distance and if he can do that, he should be able to strike his way to victory. But Dos Anjos only needs a few seconds on the ground to lock on to a submission so if he can get the takedown, he could earn the victory.

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee

In the second fight of the night on Fuel TV, young bantamweight prospect T.J. Dillashaw will face Vaughan Lee. Dillashaw is just twenty six years old and has a 5-1 career record. The team alpha male product will look to build on his last victory against Walel Watson and continue to establish himself as a threat in the 135 lb division. Lee will be looking to prove that his upset victory over Norifumi Yamamoto was not a fluke and earn the right to continue fighting in the UFC.

Lee is 1-1 in his UFC career having lost a split decision to Chris Cariaso in his first fight before shocking everyone by upsetting Yamamoto in Japan at UFC 144. Lee was in trouble early in that fight but responded with a flying knee that eventually led to an armbar submission victory late in the first round. With a 12-7-1 career record, he will need to pull off another upset to prove that he belongs in the UFC bantamweight division. Coming from one of the best camps in the world, T.J. Dillashaw is looking to establish himself as a serious threat at 135 lbs. He dominated Walel Watson in his last UFC appearance earning a unanimous decision victory. He repeatedly put Watson on his back and rode him back and forth from mount to back mount landing strikes all along the way. He did everything but finish and he’ll be looking to do just that in this fight.

Dillashaw is the clear favorite going into this fight. He will look to put Lee on his back and work his impressive grappling game. But he’ll need to be careful as Lee has more to offer on the ground than Watson did. Expect to see a lot of grappling and whoever gets the better of the scrambles will likely earn the victory. If Dillashaw continues to show the kind of improvement he showed between his last two fights, he should be able to earn his second consecutive UFC victory.

Karlos Vemola vs. Francis Carmont

In a matchup of exciting middleweights who rarely make use of the judges scorecards, Karlos Vemola takes on Francis Carmont. Neither is a serious contender in the division but both have a tendency to fight aggressively, which is good news for the fans. Both fighters have knockout power and both are capable of submissions.

Vemola has alternated wins and losses on his way to a 2-2 record in the UFC. He earned a second round victory via rear naked choke against Mike Massenzio in his last appearance. That marked his fifth career victory in eleven fights via RNC. Vemola is an explosive fighter with big power in his hands. His submission victories are also usually based on overpowering his opponents. However, he is not the most technical fighter and has been controlled by opponents who approach him with a clear game plan of avoiding the exchanges and putting him on his back. Carmont, however, is not that type of fighter. He also looks for the finish and is likely to trade with Vemola early, which could be dangerous. If he goes for the takedown, he will look for submissions and not be interested in simply controlling his opponent. Carmont is 2-0 in his UFC career including his most recent victory over Magnus Cedenbland via rear naked choke. He was in trouble in the first round of that fight but responded in the second round with a quick takedown. From there, he moved to mount and used strikes to force his opponent to give up his back and neck.

This is another fight that isn’t likely to go to a decision. I don’t see either fighter having a clear advantage and the outcome will likely depend on who executes the most effective gameplan. Both fighters should be looking to set up a takedown and work from the top position as they both have the same weakness. If either fighter takes that approach, he is likely to earn the victory. But the more likely outcome is a series of exchanges on the feet and scrambles on the ground that eventually lead to a finish.

UFC 148 Post Fight Breakdown

Anderson Silva v Chael Sonnen In one of the most hyped fights in UFC history, middleweight champion Anderson Silva once again defended his title against Chael Sonnen. For one round, it looked like we may.

Anderson Silva v Chael Sonnen

In one of the most hyped fights in UFC history, middleweight champion Anderson Silva once again defended his title against Chael Sonnen. For one round, it looked like we may have been witnessing a replay of their first fight. Sonnen came out and immediately landed a takedown. Just like the first fight, he proceeded to land his particular brand of annoying but not very damaging ground and pound. He managed to move to mount by the end of the round but was only able to land a few shoulder strikes after moving into the dominant position. Sonnen started the second round exactly the same way. He pushed Silva against the cage and worked for the takedown. But this time Silva was able to do what he was unable to do in the first fight. He defended the takedown and managed to get separation from Sonnen. Upon separating, Silva did some showboating. With his arms by his sides, he popped Sonnen with a quick right. Sonnen countered with a left that seemed to hurt Silva just enough to make him angry. Silva pushed forward with aggression rarely seen in his UFC title run. He didn’t land anything cleanly but his forward push put Sonnen off balance. And then for a reason no one will ever understand, olympic caliber wrestler Chael Sonnen decided to throw a backyard fight club style spinning back fist that resulted in him sitting on his butt against the cage seemingly unsure of what to do. Silva wan’t unsure and threw a knee to the body of his seated opponent. He then attacked with punches. Sonnen eventually stood up. But a right hand to the chin put him back down and he would not get up again.

Silva never landed the flashy strike that I’m sure he envisioned in training but he did enough to establish that Sonnen does not belong in the same cage with him. Once again, Sonnen showed that he panics when he senses danger and instead of going through the proper progression of defensive techniques, he puts himself in a position to be finished. He was basically running away when he threw the back fist and when he hit the ground, he just sat there and waited for Silva to attack. He didn’t seem to have changed anything about his gameplan and that simply was not going to be enough to win the fight. Anderson Silva is one of the best pound for pound fighters on the planet and he doesn’t currently have a legitimate contender in his division. Alan Belcher, Michael Bisping and Brian Stann are the names currently being discussed in the title picture and none of them look like a serious threat. Hector Lombard looms in the background but he needs at least one solid UFC victory before he can be considered a serious contender. So for now, Silva remains the undisputed king of the 185 pound division. Sonnen drops back down in the rankings and I don’t see a reason for him to ever get another shot at Silva unless he absolutely cleans out every other contender in the division, which seems unlikely.

Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz

The third match in this trilogy between former light heavyweight champions proved to be the clear fight of the night as Griffin slugged his way to a hard fought decision victory over Ortiz. Ortiz managed to land a couple of takedowns in the first round but was not able to keep Griffin down or do any damage and when the fight was standing, Griffin out landed Ortiz by a wide margin. The second round started with Ortiz dropping Griffin with a right hand but after that, Griffin once again dominated the rest of the round. The third round was the only one that I scored for Ortiz as he once again dropped Griffin, this time with the left hand. From there he was able to get a takedown and control the fight for the majority of the round. Once Griffin got back to his feet, he controlled the striking just as he did in the first two rounds but it wasn’t enough to win back the round. As much as I would have loved to score this fight in favor of Ortiz, the striking statistics made it obvious that Griffin was the clear winner. Ortiz actually landed the bigger power punches but the volume of Griffin’s strikes was overwhelming and he deserved to have his hand raised.
For Ortiz, I can’t imagine a better way to leave the sport regardless of the outcome. He slugged it out with another hall of famer for three exciting rounds and went out on his sword. He never gave in to the relentless pressure and had Griffin in danger several times. This trilogy is one of the better ones in MMA history thus far with all three fights going to a decision and being relatively close. Ortiz has been a polarizing figure throughout his MMA career but last night, he gave the fans a great way to remember him.


Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote

Cung Le proved that he isn’t done yet in the UFC middleweight division with a convincing victory over Patrick Cote. Cote simply could not figure out Le’s trademark san shou style as Le battered him with kicks and punches. Cote stayed in the fight and landed several power shots of his own but was never able to put Le in danger and was unable to cope with the volume and variety of strikes coming from his opponent. The fight was close through most of the first round with both fighters landing and Cote being the aggressor. But after taking several shots, Cote started to back off and that was the recipe for his defeat. When he relented, he allowed Le to find his range and from that point on, Le controlled the fight. By the middle of the second round, he was beginning to dominate using his full arsenal of kick and punch combinations. When the third round started, the outcome of the fight was not in doubt and Le continued his assault battering Cote all around the cage. He even landed a takedown at the end of the round. Cote was game but was outclassed throughout the majority of the fight and could not find a home for his powerful right hand. For Cote, this could mean a quick exit from the UFC. He will probably get one more fight and will need to win that if he hopes to stay in the big show. For Le, this puts him back in the hunt in the middle of the 185 lb division. He will likely see another step up in competition but at age forty, he likely doesn’t have much time left to compete at the highest level. He seemed to tire late in this fight but Cote didn’t have the skill set to take advantage of it. Against higher level competition, that will likely be a bigger issue.

Demian Maia vs. Dong Hyun Kim

What could have been an entertaining fight ended in the first minute due to injury when Kim appeared to suffer a broken rib on a routine takedown by Maia. What we did learn in this fight is that Maia looked great at 170 lbs. Kim is one of the larger fighters in the division and Maia looked just as big so instead of being one of the smaller middleweights, he’ll now be one of the bigger welterweights. We also learned that Maia wasn’t just talking when he said he was going back to his jiu-jitsu routes. He wasted no time in attempting a single leg takedown and quickly transitioned to Kim’s back. He was relentless and appeared to be gaining a dominant position before Kim suffered his injury. We’ll never know how the fight would have ended had it been able to continue but Maia had the early advantage. From here, Maia will likely get to step up in competition due to his name and Kim will likely continue to tread water in the middle of the division until he gets another opportunity against a high level fighter. Ideally, a rematch would be possible. But that seems unlikely considering the timeline on Kim’s recovery and the UFC’s probable eagerness to move Maia up the welterweight ranks.

Chad Mendes vs. Cody McKenzie

This fight was an obvious mismatch on paper and proved to be even more of a mismatch in the cage. McKenzie threw a sloppy kick to open the fight, Mendes caught it, countered with a right to the body and ended the fight. McKenzie’s run on the Ultimate Fighter based entirely on the novelty of his modified guillotine was fun but he clearly doesn’t have the technique or athleticism to seriously compete in the featherweight division. On the opposite end of that featherweight spectrum is Mendes who is still one of the best in the world at 145 lbs despite his title fight loss to Jose Aldo. Mendes should see a return to fighting against top tier competition in his next fight while McKenzie will likely spend the next year or so struggling to stay in the UFC. The unfortunate part about mismatches like this is that we don’t really learn anything about either fighter and neither fighter really has a chance to grow. But for Mendes, this at least puts another finish on his record and hopefully he can carry the momentum from such a dominating performance into his next fight.

Ivan Menjivar vs. Mike Easton

In the opening fight of the UFC 148 main card, Mike Easton and Ivan Menjivar struck their way to a close three round decision. Neither fighter ever gained a significant advantage and neither fighter was ever in any danger of being finished. The difference in the fight proved to be Easton’s relentless pressure and forward movement. Menjivar seemed to have the cleaner technique early in the fight and was able to initially avoid most of Easton’s power shots while countering with his own. But as the fight progressed, Easton’s leg kicks and body shots started to take effect and Menjivar’s movement slowed significantly compared to the first round. By the third round, Easton began to take a clear advantage and was obviously the fresher fighter. He landed several several power strikes and scored a takedown when Menjivar attempted a spinning back kick. I was surprised to see two of the judges score all three rounds for Easton as I thought the fight was closer than that. I gave Menjivar the first round and had him ahead in the second round until Easton stole it at the end. But the third was clearly in favor of Easton and he deserved the victory. He will see a step up in competition but if he wants to progress in the bantamweight division, he will need to continue to improve as both of his recent victories have been close decisions. At this point in his career, Menjivar is who he is as a fighter. He will continue to provide entertaining fights and should serve as an effective gatekeeper at 135 lbs.

UFC 148 MMAFix Staff Picks: Part I

Anderson Silva (-280) vs. Chael Sonnen (+240) Ryan Poli: I have to go with Silva on this one. He has the striking and jiu-jitsu advantage, plus plenty of time to work on his takedown defense..

Anderson Silva (-280) vs. Chael Sonnen (+240)
Ryan Poli: I have to go with Silva on this one. He has the striking and jiu-jitsu advantage, plus plenty of time to work on his takedown defense. I don’t see Sonnen being able to change his strategy and that will be his downfall. Although the odds were much less generous for all of Silva’s other opponents, I am somewhat surprised that the odds are as high as they are in Silva’s favor just based on the how their first fight played out. Winner: Silva

John Rivera: Anderson Silva wins by KO/TKO in the 2nd Round. “The Spider” will publicly execute Chael Sonnen….we know this because he is the greatest fighter in the history of the sport. Winner: Silva

Emily Kapala: I personally think that Chael Sonnen is being undervalued in the eyes of the oddsmakers. Not only would I pick Sonnen as the winner, but I think he is the highest value bet. While the odds are against him, I think he will be able to pull through with the victory this time around when he faces Silva in the octagon. Winner: Sonnen

Elise Kapala: In almost every fight with Silva, the opposing fighter is the underdog. However, the last matchup with Sonnen and Silva was so intense and draining on Silva, there truly is no underdog here. If I had to choose a winner, I would say Sonnen via knockout in the 3rd or 4th round. Winner: Sonnen

Alan Wells: If I’m picking a winner, I’m going with Silva but if I’m betting the money line, I’m going with Sonnen. I’m not interested in -280 odds and after Sonnen’s performance in the first fight, I’m willing to take a flyer on him. I’m not expecting to win but if I need action on this fight, I’m going with Sonnen. Winner: Silva

MMAFix Staff Pick: Silva (3-2)



Tito Ortiz (+255) vs. Forrest Griffin (-310)
Ryan Poli: I’m going with the favorite to win. Although I wasn’t impressed by either of them in their last fight, Shogun is a more dangerous opponent than Lil’ Nog. Plus I would say with the exception of wrestling, Forrest has every advantage (age, cardio, reach, striking, jiu- jitsu). Winner: Griffin

John Rivera: I think Forrest takes a unanimous decision this time around. As much as I love Tito, I think as a fighter, his best days are behind him. Rashad ravaged him, and Lil’ Nog took the rest…. Winner: Griffin

Alan Wells: I hate this line. I don’t understand why Griffin is such a significant favorite. I like him to win but -310 makes him a waste of money. Once again, if I feel the need to wet my beak for this fight, I’m going with the underdog but I don’t feel great about my chances of getting that money back. Winner: Griffin

MMAFix Staff Pick: Griffin (3-0)

Cung Le (+180) vs. Patrick Cote (-220)
Ryan Poli: Cung Le all the way. His striking is more diverse and Cote has been fighting against much lower level competition for quite some time. He just isn’t at Cung Le’s level. Winner: Le

John Rivera: The headline will read: ‘Cote KO’s ex Strikeforce Champ, Cung Le in the 2nd round due to the former’s punching power and the latter’s lack of cardio.’ Winner: Cote

Alan Wells: I think the oddsmakers are just screwing with me at this point. If MMA was a more popular sport, this line would be a lot closer because the public would be moving it toward Le. But the betting pool for MMA isn’t nearly as big as other sports so the line is right where it should be. I like Cote to win and that’s where my money is going if I have to bet. The odds aren’t great but at least they’re better than the two headliners. Winner: Cote

MMAFix Staff Pick: Cote (2-1)

UFC 148 MMAFix Staff Picks: Part II

Dong Hyun Kim (-155) vs. Demien Maia (+135) Ryan Poli: Despite a poor performance in his last fight, I’m picking Demian Maia to win. Stun Gun is at his best on the ground, which I.

Dong Hyun Kim (-155) vs. Demien Maia (+135)
Ryan Poli: Despite a poor performance in his last fight, I’m picking Demian Maia to win. Stun Gun is at his best on the ground, which I feel plays right in to Maia’s hand. Plus as long as Maia can showcase his improved stand up (like he did against Mark Munoz), he will also have the advantage on the feet. I disagree with the odds. It may be because of his last fight, but I still disagree. Winner: Maia

John Rivera: This fight can go one of two ways: Kim, uses a moderate kickboxing advantage and solid judo skills to keep the fight upright for a unanimous decision victory…. OR…Demian Maia submits the motherf*cker with his insane jiu-jitsu skills inside of round one. Even though I want the badass Brazilian to win via flying omaplata to reverse spinning heel hook, I got Kim with the decision this time. Winner: Kim

Alan Wells: I expect DHK to take a decision victory here. This will probably be another mediocre striking match right in line with Maia’s recent fights and Kim has the slight advantage in the striking. At -155, this is the first fight that feels worth a bet. Winner: Kim

MMAFix Staff Pick: Kim (2-1)

Chad Mendes (-640) vs. Cody McKenzie (+470)
Ryan Poli: Chad Mendes is too strong and too skilled for McKenzie. His only chance to win is with his signature guillotine choke which Mendes can easily avoid. Winner: Mendes

John Rivera: I got Chad Mendes via boring decision victory. Mendes is a good enough wrestler to keep McKenzie on his back for most of the fight but the latter is good enough on the ground to avoid any submissions from the Team Alpha Male product. As sick as he is with the guillotine (Dude has 12 submission victories all by guillotine) I don’t see McKenzie tapping out the NCAA All-American Wrestler. Winner: Mendes

Alan Wells: This fight is a joke. The only reason to bet here is to either take a flyer on McKenzie because of the ridiculous odds or to use Mendes as a parlay to get better odds on either Silva or Griffin. Parlaying is normally a sucker bet but I really can’t imagine Mendes losing this fight. Winner: Mendes

MMAFix Staff Pick: Mendes (3-0)

Ivan Menjivar (+105) vs. Mike Easton (-125)
Ryan Poli: I think Menjivar is overrated. He is extremely talented, but his last few fights have been against lower ranked competition that gave him a great deal of trouble and put him in some bad positions where I feel if Mike Easton had the same position, he would be able to put Menjivar away. Mike Easton brings it every fight and will get the TKO over Menjivar. Winner: Easton

John Rivera: We are in for a treat. First of all Menjivar fought GSP when he debuted at 170lbs—the guy is a monster, especially when you consider this fight is at bantamweight. Second, Mike Easton is a Lloyd Irvin black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who PREFERS to fight standing up. I have no idea what is going to happen. Mike Easton is on a tear, killing guys left and right with very dangerous muay thai, but this is definitely a step up in competition. The UFC is testing Easton with this matchup. They want to see if he can make the leap from rising prospect to legitimate contender. A fourth victory against a high profile fighter such as Menjivar could sign Easton’s ticket to the title show. I think he will rise to the occasion for a very close split decision victory. Winner: Easton

Alan Wells: This is the closest fight of the night. It started as a pick ‘em but the line has now moved slightly in favor of Easton. I consider this a stay away for betting purposes because it’s too close. But if I have to pick a winner, I’m going with Easton. I’d love to pick Menjivar because I’ve been a fan of his game for a long time but I think Easton will be a bit too strong for him. Winner: Easton

MMAFix Staff Pick: Easton (3-0)

Why is Chris Weidman the Favorite?

Although rapidly approaching , UFC on Fuel TV 4 hasn’t gotten much attention from the media due to the highly anticipated UFC 148. However, just four days after Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen square off.

Although rapidly approaching , UFC on Fuel TV 4 hasn’t gotten much attention from the media due to the highly anticipated UFC 148. However, just four days after Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen square off for the second time, two other top middleweights will face off in an attempt to continue their run at the middleweight title.

Top contenders, Mark Munoz and Chris Weidman, will be headlining UFC on Fuel TV 4, which will take place July 11th. The betting odds for the main event have come out, and surprisingly, it is Weidman who is the favorite over Munoz. Now while casual MMA fans may not question this, it does raise a few eyebrows from the more enthusiastic fans. Both fighters have demonstrated their skills over talented opponents, which places both fighters among the top of the division, arguably in the top ten. However, nobody can argue with the repertoire of Munoz being more impressive.

Mark Munoz has won seven of his last eight fights, losing only a split decision to Yushin Okami, who at the time, was ranked in the top five. He has since beaten four high-level opponents, with only two of those fights seeing judges score cards. Chris Weidman hasn’t faced the number of high-level opponents that Munoz has. Although Weidman was able to finish UFC veteran, Tom Lawlor, with a guillotine choke in just over two minutes, it was his decision win over jiu-jitsu specialist, Demian Maia, that labeled him as a top middleweight contender. Coincidently, Munoz and Weidman share Demian Maia as a common opponent, and it’s the comparison of their bouts with Maia that reveal just how baffling these betting odds truly are.

Mark Munoz fought a confident, energetic Demian Maia, who came out aggressive, throwing a plethora of solid, accurate strikes. It was the first time Maia demonstrated his newly achieved striking skills and completely caught Munoz off guard with them. However, Munoz was able to come back in the last two rounds, using powerful strikes and elite wrestling to stifle the jiu-jitsu attempts of Maia, and win a unanimous decision. In Chris Weidman’s bout with Maia, eight months later, Maia’s performance was sluggish and mundane. His strikes were hesitant and predictable, while his take down attempts were feeble. Even commentators, Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg, made the comment that the performance of Maia and Weidman wasn’t installing any fear to the rest of the division, and that they both looked physically exhausted. While this was understandable for Weidman, seeing he agreed to the fight with Maia on only eleven days notice, there was no explanation for Maia’s poor performance. Bottom line, Mark Munoz defeated an elite contender at the top of his game, and Chris Weidman didn’t.

By no means should anyone count Chris Weidman out of this fight. He may very well remain undefeated when it’s all over. However, there is a reason that every MMA website has Munoz ranked above Weidman. When looking at the skills, past performances, and overall resumes that both of these fighters poses, Mark Munoz has simply accomplished more. Clearly somebody was misinformed when making these betting odds, and if not, then favoring Weidman is just plain ignorant and bias.

By: Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

UFC 148 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen The headliner for UFC 148 is one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. The first title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen was a classic and the.

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

The headliner for UFC 148 is one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. The first title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen was a classic and the storylines have only continued to grow since then. Sonnen has served as the provocateur for the rivalry between these two with his constant verbal attack through any media outlet that will broadcast or print his increasingly impressive arsenal of trash talk. Until recently, Silva has played the role of the professional fighter remaining calm and promising to do his talking in the octagon. But that changed in the last few weeks as Silva has either joined into to the promotion efforts or genuinely snapped after two years of listening to Chael’s undeniably creative ranting. Either way, the entertainment value leading up to this fight is the best since Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz set the standard for MMA rivalries.

When breaking down a rematch, the most important thing to look at is the first fight. The first fight between Sonnen and Silva was one of the greatest in UFC history and probably was the greatest come from behind victory in UFC history considering the stakes. It cannot be understated how significant Sonnen’s control of the fight was up until the moment Silva locked up the triangle that saved his belt late in the fifth round. Every round played out exactly the same with Sonnen aggressively closing the distance on Silva with punches and pushing him up against the cage before landing a takedown. I’m not often shocked by what I see in a fight but I will never forget having to admit to myself in about the third round that Chael Sonnen was outstriking Anderson Silva. Silva obviously has the advantage in technique and the margin is about equal to the length of the wall in China. But Sonnen was relentless and never gave Silva a chance to settle into a rhythm, which resulted in Silva maybe landing one or two off balance shots as Sonnen was rushing him and landing combinations. Sonnen then used that pressure to get Silva off balance and put him on his back. From there, Sonnen focused more on maintaining control rather than finishing and hammer fisted his way to an unquestionable four round to zero lead. The fifth round started exactly the same as the others. By this time, I was actually squatting on my haunches six inches in front of the TV because I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. And then, out of nowhere, Silva slipped his legs around Sonnen’s neck. Sonnen seemed caught off guard and failed to defend until it was too late. Even more surprisingly, he panic tapped almost immediately and never gave himself a chance to escape. He tapped like it was a training session. He seemed to suddenly realize that he was minutes away from the most important victory of his career and tried to pretend he didn’t tap but he had and in a span of about ten seconds, Anderson Silva went from a certain defeat to one of the most unbelievable victories in UFC history. If Silva was trying to crush Sonnen’s soul as pay back for all the trash talk, he couldn’t have come up with a better way to do it.

That leads us to this fight. Anderson Silva is a smart fighter and he trains at one of the best camps in the world. He will learn from his mistakes in the first fight. But Sonnen is also a smart fighter and he also trains at one of the best camps in the world. The pressure is on him to come up with a strategy that will be as successful as the one he employed in the first fight. If he employs the same strategy, he will likely find himself hurt by Silva’s pinpoint counterstriking ability, which he will have undoubtedly been honing in his camp for this fight. Sonnen’s aggression caught the champion by surprise in the first fight but he will be prepared for it this time. Sonnen will likely have to come up with a new way to set up his takedowns if he wants to achieve a similar level of success as he did in the first fight. And if he does, expect Silva to be more aggressive with submission attempts in the earlier rounds. Sonnen has been susceptible to triangles and armbars throughout his career and Silva has the jiu-jitsu skills to lock up Sonnen if he leaves an opening. But Sonnen should be drilling those fundamental defensive grappling skills hard in his camp so Silva may have to work harder if he wants to find that opening.

The odds on this fight currently have Silva favored at -290 with Sonnen the underdog at +240. Silva is clearly the favorite and the line is appropriate but the possibility exists that Sonnen’s skill set is the kryptonite for the middleweight champion. Most people thought Frankie Edgar’s split decision victory over BJ Penn was a fluke and that Penn would dominate in the rematch. It took ten full rounds for Edgar to convince the MMA world that he was better than the legend. That’s probably not an entirely fair analogy because Chael Sonnen is much more of a known entity now than Frankie Edgar was heading into his fights with BJ Penn. But the point remains that no one should be completely stunned if Sonnen is able to do exactly what he did in the first fight and then continue that for the three minutes it would have taken to earn a victory the first time around. He has proven that he can beat Anderson Silva and if he does, it can’t be considered a fluke. But the more likely outcome is that Silva harnesses all the energy and motivation he has displayed in the last week and releases it in one devastatingly accurate strike on Sonnen’s face. Either way, if this fight can find a way to live up to all of the hype, the MMA community will be in for an exciting and possible even historic night.

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

Fight fans love trilogies and as the warm up for the night’s main event, the UFC is giving us a third fight between veterans Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz. Realistically, this is probably not going to be a great fight. But this is the type of fight that makes enough sense from a historical perspective to outweigh what the actual quality of the fight might be. Both of these fighters have earned their place in the history of the UFC. Tito Ortiz is one of the original stars of MMA and has done as much to increase its popularity as any other individual fighter. Forrest Griffin took part in the critical mass moment for the UFC when he fought Stephan Bonnar on the original Ultimate Fighter finale. Both are former champions in the 205 pound division. They have fought each other twice before with each earning a split decision victory. Both men might retire after the fight. For all of those reasons, this fight makes sense and deserves second billing on a major card.

As far as the actual fight analysis, we’ve already seen this fight twice. Tito Ortiz is a solid wrestler whose striking and jiu-jitsu have improved greatly over the course of his career. His greatest asset has always been his ground and pound and he will look to utilize it in this fight. Forrest Griffin generally prefers to keep his fights standing but he too is capable on the ground. Expect to see all areas of the game explored in this fight. Expect to see both fighters on their backs at some point. Expect to see both fighters land strikes on the feet. Basically, expect more of what we saw in their first two fights. The fight will likely be decided by who can gain an advantage in where the fight takes place. If Ortiz can land enough takedowns and do some damage from top position, he’ll earn the victory. If Griffin can keep the fight standing, he will have the striking advantage and he’ll earn the victory. This is a classic “who can impose his will” type of situation.

Forrest Griffin comes into this fight as the significant favorite at -320 and Ortiz is the underdog at +260. Griffin deserves to be the favorite but I’m not sure why the line is so far in his favor. Ortiz is perfectly capable of winning this fight. These two men have fought a total of six rounds and three of those have been scored for Ortiz so he’s capable of taking two out of three on Saturday night. That said, Griffin should be able to use his defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing and strike his way to a decision victory. But if Ortiz can land his takedowns, the complexion of this fight will change drastically.