Dong Hyun Kim (-155) vs. Demien Maia (+135) Ryan Poli: Despite a poor performance in his last fight, I’m picking Demian Maia to win. Stun Gun is at his best on the ground, which I.
Dong Hyun Kim (-155) vs. Demien Maia (+135)
Ryan Poli: Despite a poor performance in his last fight, I’m picking Demian Maia to win. Stun Gun is at his best on the ground, which I feel plays right in to Maia’s hand. Plus as long as Maia can showcase his improved stand up (like he did against Mark Munoz), he will also have the advantage on the feet. I disagree with the odds. It may be because of his last fight, but I still disagree. Winner: Maia
John Rivera: This fight can go one of two ways: Kim, uses a moderate kickboxing advantage and solid judo skills to keep the fight upright for a unanimous decision victory…. OR…Demian Maia submits the motherf*cker with his insane jiu-jitsu skills inside of round one. Even though I want the badass Brazilian to win via flying omaplata to reverse spinning heel hook, I got Kim with the decision this time. Winner: Kim
Alan Wells: I expect DHK to take a decision victory here. This will probably be another mediocre striking match right in line with Maia’s recent fights and Kim has the slight advantage in the striking. At -155, this is the first fight that feels worth a bet. Winner: Kim
MMAFix Staff Pick: Kim (2-1)
Chad Mendes (-640) vs. Cody McKenzie (+470)
Ryan Poli: Chad Mendes is too strong and too skilled for McKenzie. His only chance to win is with his signature guillotine choke which Mendes can easily avoid. Winner: Mendes
John Rivera: I got Chad Mendes via boring decision victory. Mendes is a good enough wrestler to keep McKenzie on his back for most of the fight but the latter is good enough on the ground to avoid any submissions from the Team Alpha Male product. As sick as he is with the guillotine (Dude has 12 submission victories all by guillotine) I don’t see McKenzie tapping out the NCAA All-American Wrestler. Winner: Mendes
Alan Wells: This fight is a joke. The only reason to bet here is to either take a flyer on McKenzie because of the ridiculous odds or to use Mendes as a parlay to get better odds on either Silva or Griffin. Parlaying is normally a sucker bet but I really can’t imagine Mendes losing this fight. Winner: Mendes
MMAFix Staff Pick: Mendes (3-0)
Ivan Menjivar (+105) vs. Mike Easton (-125)
Ryan Poli: I think Menjivar is overrated. He is extremely talented, but his last few fights have been against lower ranked competition that gave him a great deal of trouble and put him in some bad positions where I feel if Mike Easton had the same position, he would be able to put Menjivar away. Mike Easton brings it every fight and will get the TKO over Menjivar. Winner: Easton
John Rivera: We are in for a treat. First of all Menjivar fought GSP when he debuted at 170lbs—the guy is a monster, especially when you consider this fight is at bantamweight. Second, Mike Easton is a Lloyd Irvin black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who PREFERS to fight standing up. I have no idea what is going to happen. Mike Easton is on a tear, killing guys left and right with very dangerous muay thai, but this is definitely a step up in competition. The UFC is testing Easton with this matchup. They want to see if he can make the leap from rising prospect to legitimate contender. A fourth victory against a high profile fighter such as Menjivar could sign Easton’s ticket to the title show. I think he will rise to the occasion for a very close split decision victory. Winner: Easton
Alan Wells: This is the closest fight of the night. It started as a pick ‘em but the line has now moved slightly in favor of Easton. I consider this a stay away for betting purposes because it’s too close. But if I have to pick a winner, I’m going with Easton. I’d love to pick Menjivar because I’ve been a fan of his game for a long time but I think Easton will be a bit too strong for him. Winner: Easton
MMAFix Staff Pick: Easton (3-0)
Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen The headliner for UFC 148 is one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. The first title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen was a classic and the.
Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen
The headliner for UFC 148 is one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. The first title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen was a classic and the storylines have only continued to grow since then. Sonnen has served as the provocateur for the rivalry between these two with his constant verbal attack through any media outlet that will broadcast or print his increasingly impressive arsenal of trash talk. Until recently, Silva has played the role of the professional fighter remaining calm and promising to do his talking in the octagon. But that changed in the last few weeks as Silva has either joined into to the promotion efforts or genuinely snapped after two years of listening to Chael’s undeniably creative ranting. Either way, the entertainment value leading up to this fight is the best since Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz set the standard for MMA rivalries.
When breaking down a rematch, the most important thing to look at is the first fight. The first fight between Sonnen and Silva was one of the greatest in UFC history and probably was the greatest come from behind victory in UFC history considering the stakes. It cannot be understated how significant Sonnen’s control of the fight was up until the moment Silva locked up the triangle that saved his belt late in the fifth round. Every round played out exactly the same with Sonnen aggressively closing the distance on Silva with punches and pushing him up against the cage before landing a takedown. I’m not often shocked by what I see in a fight but I will never forget having to admit to myself in about the third round that Chael Sonnen was outstriking Anderson Silva. Silva obviously has the advantage in technique and the margin is about equal to the length of the wall in China. But Sonnen was relentless and never gave Silva a chance to settle into a rhythm, which resulted in Silva maybe landing one or two off balance shots as Sonnen was rushing him and landing combinations. Sonnen then used that pressure to get Silva off balance and put him on his back. From there, Sonnen focused more on maintaining control rather than finishing and hammer fisted his way to an unquestionable four round to zero lead. The fifth round started exactly the same as the others. By this time, I was actually squatting on my haunches six inches in front of the TV because I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. And then, out of nowhere, Silva slipped his legs around Sonnen’s neck. Sonnen seemed caught off guard and failed to defend until it was too late. Even more surprisingly, he panic tapped almost immediately and never gave himself a chance to escape. He tapped like it was a training session. He seemed to suddenly realize that he was minutes away from the most important victory of his career and tried to pretend he didn’t tap but he had and in a span of about ten seconds, Anderson Silva went from a certain defeat to one of the most unbelievable victories in UFC history. If Silva was trying to crush Sonnen’s soul as pay back for all the trash talk, he couldn’t have come up with a better way to do it.
That leads us to this fight. Anderson Silva is a smart fighter and he trains at one of the best camps in the world. He will learn from his mistakes in the first fight. But Sonnen is also a smart fighter and he also trains at one of the best camps in the world. The pressure is on him to come up with a strategy that will be as successful as the one he employed in the first fight. If he employs the same strategy, he will likely find himself hurt by Silva’s pinpoint counterstriking ability, which he will have undoubtedly been honing in his camp for this fight. Sonnen’s aggression caught the champion by surprise in the first fight but he will be prepared for it this time. Sonnen will likely have to come up with a new way to set up his takedowns if he wants to achieve a similar level of success as he did in the first fight. And if he does, expect Silva to be more aggressive with submission attempts in the earlier rounds. Sonnen has been susceptible to triangles and armbars throughout his career and Silva has the jiu-jitsu skills to lock up Sonnen if he leaves an opening. But Sonnen should be drilling those fundamental defensive grappling skills hard in his camp so Silva may have to work harder if he wants to find that opening.
The odds on this fight currently have Silva favored at -290 with Sonnen the underdog at +240. Silva is clearly the favorite and the line is appropriate but the possibility exists that Sonnen’s skill set is the kryptonite for the middleweight champion. Most people thought Frankie Edgar’s split decision victory over BJ Penn was a fluke and that Penn would dominate in the rematch. It took ten full rounds for Edgar to convince the MMA world that he was better than the legend. That’s probably not an entirely fair analogy because Chael Sonnen is much more of a known entity now than Frankie Edgar was heading into his fights with BJ Penn. But the point remains that no one should be completely stunned if Sonnen is able to do exactly what he did in the first fight and then continue that for the three minutes it would have taken to earn a victory the first time around. He has proven that he can beat Anderson Silva and if he does, it can’t be considered a fluke. But the more likely outcome is that Silva harnesses all the energy and motivation he has displayed in the last week and releases it in one devastatingly accurate strike on Sonnen’s face. Either way, if this fight can find a way to live up to all of the hype, the MMA community will be in for an exciting and possible even historic night.
Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
Fight fans love trilogies and as the warm up for the night’s main event, the UFC is giving us a third fight between veterans Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz. Realistically, this is probably not going to be a great fight. But this is the type of fight that makes enough sense from a historical perspective to outweigh what the actual quality of the fight might be. Both of these fighters have earned their place in the history of the UFC. Tito Ortiz is one of the original stars of MMA and has done as much to increase its popularity as any other individual fighter. Forrest Griffin took part in the critical mass moment for the UFC when he fought Stephan Bonnar on the original Ultimate Fighter finale. Both are former champions in the 205 pound division. They have fought each other twice before with each earning a split decision victory. Both men might retire after the fight. For all of those reasons, this fight makes sense and deserves second billing on a major card.
As far as the actual fight analysis, we’ve already seen this fight twice. Tito Ortiz is a solid wrestler whose striking and jiu-jitsu have improved greatly over the course of his career. His greatest asset has always been his ground and pound and he will look to utilize it in this fight. Forrest Griffin generally prefers to keep his fights standing but he too is capable on the ground. Expect to see all areas of the game explored in this fight. Expect to see both fighters on their backs at some point. Expect to see both fighters land strikes on the feet. Basically, expect more of what we saw in their first two fights. The fight will likely be decided by who can gain an advantage in where the fight takes place. If Ortiz can land enough takedowns and do some damage from top position, he’ll earn the victory. If Griffin can keep the fight standing, he will have the striking advantage and he’ll earn the victory. This is a classic “who can impose his will” type of situation.
Forrest Griffin comes into this fight as the significant favorite at -320 and Ortiz is the underdog at +260. Griffin deserves to be the favorite but I’m not sure why the line is so far in his favor. Ortiz is perfectly capable of winning this fight. These two men have fought a total of six rounds and three of those have been scored for Ortiz so he’s capable of taking two out of three on Saturday night. That said, Griffin should be able to use his defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing and strike his way to a decision victory. But if Ortiz can land his takedowns, the complexion of this fight will change drastically.
Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote In a matchup clearly designed for entertainment, fan favorite Cung Le will face veteran Patrick Cote. Strikeforce tried to make Cung Le a superstar. They tried to sell his san.
Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote
In a matchup clearly designed for entertainment, fan favorite Cung Le will face veteran Patrick Cote. Strikeforce tried to make Cung Le a superstar. They tried to sell his san shou background and his wrestling background and his acting credentials. But the reality is that he’s a forty year old fighter with a 7-2 career record and no significant wins. He lost in his last fight against Wanderlei Silva, which proves he is not an elite fighter at middleweight. The UFC knew this when they brought him over from Strikeforce and they are using him to generate exciting fights against fighters who will be willing to stand with him. Enter Patrick Cote. Cote gets a chance to defeat a name fighter in his return to the octagon after being let go following three consecutive losses to Anderson Silva, Alan Belcher and Tom Lawlor. In hindsight, that release may have been premature given the emergence of Belcher.
This fight is not complicated to analyze. It will take place mostly on the feet. Le will employ all of the kicks and spinning techniques fans expect from him. He will use his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing if Cote decides to strike. Le has the technical ability to keep Cote at a distance and outstrike him. He even has the power to finish the fight if he can land a clean combination. But Cote has never been finished via KO or TKO and I don’t expect Cung Le to do what Anderson Silva couldn’t. Cote will more than likely also want to keep the fight standing. He is a more traditional striker but that doesn’t make him any less of a threat. The power in his right hand is more dangerous than any single strike Cung Le possesses. He comes into this fight on a four fight winning streak outside of the UFC and he will be looking to use Cung Le as a step toward once again competing at the top of the middleweight division.
The oddsmakers currently have Cote favored at -245 with Le the underdog at +205. I’m not surprised to see Cote favored but I am slightly surprised at the margin. That said, Cote is the more experienced and probably more dangerous fighter. His striking is good enough to neutralize Le’s unorthodox style and earn the victory either via (T)KO or decision. If Le wants to earn the upset, he will need to utilize movement and keep Cote guessing and moving backward. Either way, this should be an entertaining fight between two dangerous strikers.
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Demian Maia
In a matchup of upper level middleweights, Dong Hyun Kim will face Demian Maia as both men look to move up the ranks at 185 pounds. Kim has won six of his seven fights in the UFC excluding his fight with Karo Parisyan that was ruled a no contest after Parisyan tested positive for PEDs. Maia has struggled recently losing two of his last three fights in the UFC.
Maia has been a fixture in the UFC middleweight division for years having risen as far as a title fight with Anderson Silva. He was outclassed badly in that fight and has been up and down since then with wins over Mario Miranda, Kendall Grove and Jorge Santiago and losses to Mark Munoz and Chris Weidman. He seems to struggle when he faces the higher level of competition with his most impressive wins coming against Chael Sonnen and Dan Miller. He still possesses some of the most dangerous jiu-jitsu in the world at any weight class but his opponents have been able to neutralize that by refusing to play the ground game with him. His standup has improved over the last few years but is not at a level where he can win a striking match against a top level fighter. He will likely struggle to get Kim to the ground in this match and will need to take advantage of any opportunity he gets to grapple. More than likely, most of this fight will take place on the feet and that does not bode well for Maia. His grappling is by far the most dangerous weapon either fighter brings to the cage but unless Kim allows him to utilize it, Maia will likely be stuck in another striking match.
Dong Hyun Kim has only one official loss on his professional record and that came against Carlos Condit who is one of the best middleweights in the world. That said, Kim has yet to earn a signature victory with his biggest win coming against Amir Sadollah. Maia represents an excellent opportunity to earn a victory over a well respected middleweight and take a step up in the division. Kim was a knockout artist in Korea but that has not translated over to his UFC career as he has won all of his fights by decision. His striking is solid but not excellent and he has the defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing. He obviously has the power to finish with his strikes but has not been able to show it thus far in the the UFC. A finish against Maia would be a major statement but a decision is much more likely. He will need to keep the fight standing because even though he is competent on the ground, no one is safe against Damien Maia and he would be foolish to play that game. If he follows the appropriate gameplan and keeps the fight standing, he is capable of outstriking Maia to earn the victory.
Kim comes into the fight as the favorite at -145 with Maia the underdog at +125. The line is appropriate and this fight seems to have a clear script. Maia is always a threat if the fight goes to ground but I see no reason why Kim would allow that to happen. If the fight stays on the feet, Kim will have the advantage and he should be able to land more cleanly on his way to a decision victory.
McCall vs. Johnson Five years ago, I wasn’t sure whether the UFC audience would ever evolve to the level where a fight between 125 pounders could headline a card. On Friday night, we’ll find out.
McCall vs. Johnson
Five years ago, I wasn’t sure whether the UFC audience would ever evolve to the level where a fight between 125 pounders could headline a card. On Friday night, we’ll find out if we’ve reached that point. This fight has every storyline needed to sell a main event. Demetrius Johnson and Ian McCall are two of the best fighters in the world at their weight. They fought in March on the UFC on FX 2 card and battled to one of the most bizarre results in UFC history. The fight was announced a split decision victory for Johnson but upon reexamination of the cards after the fight, someone was outed as not having the first grade math skills to add up the judges scorecards. The fight had actually been scored a draw. Had everyone’s math skills been in order at the end of the fight, that result would have resulted in a sudden victory fourth round. Instead, we get a rematch to determine who moves on to face Joseph Benavidez for the right to be the first ever 125 pound champion in UFC history. I’m sure the fourth round in March would have been exciting television but three more rounds between these two can’t be considered anything other than a win for the fans.
In so many ways, these fighters are startlingly similar. Both have wrestling backgrounds and are explosive athletes. Both have used that explosive athleticism to develop excellent striking skills. Both move fluidly through transitions in all positions and neither is easy to contain for any period of time. The first fight was so even that it was nearly impossible to score. Johnson had a slight edge in the striking exchanges in the first round but McCall countered with two takedowns. Johnson managed to land a right hand that briefly staggered McCall and on my scorecard, I used that as a tiebreaker to give the first round to Johnson. The second round was where the judging ran into problems. If a 10-10 round was ever fought, that was it. But under the 10 point must system, someone has to win the round. I gave it to Johnson based on literally nothing other than a completely subjective feeling. The third round was the most dominant round for either fighter with McCall taking Johnson’s back and nearly finishing him with ground a pound. And this is where the 10 point must system went from being a problem to basically being a farce. If we follow the system exactly, that was a 10-9 round for McCall and based on my card, Johnson should win the fight. But that’s ridiculous because McCall was infinitely more dominant in the third than Johnson was in the second. So I, being a judging rebel, made the third round a 10-8 round for McCall so that it would be a draw, which is exactly what one of the judges at the event did. And I applaud him for it. Unfortunately, the person adding up his card apparently needs a calculator to handle two digit addition and we now find ourselves in this position.
According to Vegas, Johnson is a -150 favorite at the moment with McCall at +130. I’d like to know how they arrived at those lines. As far as I can see, this is a classic pick ‘em fight. These fighters are absurdly well-rounded with their strengths being in the same areas. I expect to see a similar fight to the one we saw in March. Johnson will be slightly better in the striking exchanges with McCall barely coming out ahead in the grappling. The only way either fighter will be able to gain a clear advantage is if McCall can get Johnson to the ground and somehow keep him there, which seems unlikely. If I start looking deeper for advantages, Matt Hume is one of the best coaches an in MMA. He has an entire three rounds of fight tape to study and develop a gameplan for Johnson to utilize. Team Oyama where McCall trains is a great camp but nobody other than Greg Jackson has the mind for the sport that Matt Hume has. Johnson will absolutely have the perfect strategy going into the fight. Whether or not he can execute it will be determined at fight time. Anyone willing to say that either fighter is a clear favorite didn’t watch the first fight closely enough. The only sure thing is that on Friday night, we will get a winner to face Joseph Benavidez for the title. But don’t be surprised if the outcome leaves fans calling for a trilogy.
Eddie Wineland vs. Scott Jorgensen
Both fighters will be looking to rebound from losses in their last UFC appearance in this battle to see who can earn their way back into title contention. Eddie Wineland has lost his last two fights to Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez while former WEC bantamweight champion Scott Jorgensen lost in his most recent fight against phenom Renan Barao.
Despite back to back losses, Wineland cannot be dismissed. Both of those fights were against the highest level of competition. Faber will be fighting for the interim 135 pound title in his next fight and Benavidez awaits the winner of the main event to determine the 125 pound champion. Wineland was competitive in both fights and while he lost decisively, he was not dominated. He greatly improved his wrestling going into the Faber fight and continued that improvement into the Benavidez fight. However, he was unable to translate his defensive wrestling into offensive attacks. He seemed so focused on sprawling and defending against takedowns that he was not nearly as aggressive with his striking as he had been in previous fights. Wineland is one of the better strikers in the division and needs to let his hands go if he is going to find success against Jorgensen. After his last two performances, he should be confident enough in his defensive wrestling to let his striking game flow knowing that his instincts will allow him to sprawl if Jorgensen shoots. For Wineland to earn the victory, he needs to combine the defensive ability he showed in his recent fights with the offensive ability that he has displayed throughout his career. If he can do that, his opponent could be in for a long night.
Jorgensen is also coming off a loss to a top tier fighter. Renan Barao will be fighting Urijah Faber in the aforementioned interim bantamweight title match. Losing to Barao is nothing to be ashamed of but if Jorgensen expects to get back into title contention, he needs to defeat Wineland. As a former champion, Jorgensen has all the skills to get back to that level and a win on Saturday night would be the first step in that direction. Jorgensen has an excellent collegiate wrestling background and has been successful putting most opponents on their backs although he did struggle with Barao. But the real improvement in his game in recent years has been in his striking and look for him to show off those skills against Wineland. Expect him to be willing to stand with Wineland for as long as he feels comfortable. If he begins to feel threatened or if Wineland starts to seize an advantage, that’s when we could see the takedowns come into play. Jorgensen should have an advantage in that area and if he can’t control the fight on the feet, he should be able to control it on the mat.
Jorgensen is the clear favorite going into this fight at -210 with Wineland at +175. That line seems about right as a victory for Wineland would definitely be an upset. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Wineland will need to keep the fight standing and outstrike Jorgensen, which he is capable of doing. But if he shows the same tentative approach on the feet that he’s showed in recent fights, Jorgensen will pick him apart. And even if he brings his best striking into the cage, Jorgensen should be able to mix in some wrestling to work his way to victory.
Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman If the main event features two fighters who are startlingly similar, this fight is the exact opposite. Charlie Brenneman and Erick Silva couldn’t be more different in their approaches. Brenneman.
Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman
If the main event features two fighters who are startlingly similar, this fight is the exact opposite. Charlie Brenneman and Erick Silva couldn’t be more different in their approaches. Brenneman is a calculated strategist whose five UFC victories have all come via decision including his latest victory over Daniel Roberts. On the other end of the spectrum, Erick Silva fights with an unbridled aggression that has twice caused him to lose fights due to illegal strikes. This will be a classic test of which fighter can impose his style of fighting on his opponent.
Charlie Brenneman is 5-2 in his UFC career with one of the losses coming to the absurd weight-cutting of Anthony Johnson. He has really only lost once in the UFC to someone who belongs in his weight class and that was to Johnny Hendricks who has currently worked his way into title contention. Brenneman isn’t at that level but a few more wins and the UFC will have to take notice. His style doesn’t make him a fan favorite and that has hindered his marketability. His last fight is a perfect example of that. He thoroughly outclassed Roberts and controlled every aspect of the fight. The outcome was never in doubt as Brenneman dominated position for all fifteen minutes. But in those fifteen minutes, he did little damage despite getting into dominant positions including the mounted crucifix twice. But that style will be his greatest asset against Silva. Brenneman will want to avoid trading on the feet and suck his opponent into a grinding grappling contest. If he allows himself to be drawn into a brawl he could find himself in trouble or even unconscious. But if he can use his striking to set up takedowns and control Silva, he should be able to earn the victory.
Erick Silva is explosive. He has finished his last four opponents in the first round. That includes back to back first minute TKOs in the UFC. The last fight was ruled a DQ due to strikes to the back of the head but even referee Mario Yamasaki admitted that he made the wrong call in that fight. Silva’s gameplan isn’t complicated. He will look to explode on Brenneman the same way he has exploded on all his opponents. An early finish is entirely possible and will probably be his most likely route to victory as Brenneman is a master of grinding opponents into the mat over the full fifteen minutes. That said, Silva will need to wait for the right opportunity to attack. If he attacks recklessly and gets off balance, Brenneman will take advantage and put him on his back. Silva has shown a good submission game in Brazil but he hasn’t had to contend with a fighter who has a base and defense like the one he’ll be facing on Friday. Controlling his explosive aggression and timing his attack properly will be the key for Silva.
Silva is the favorite at -145 with Brenneman at +125. This is a relatively close line for an MMA fight and both fighters have a legitimate path to victory. Silva will look to end the fight early by overwhelming Brenneman with power and explosiveness. Brenneman will look to survive that early onslaught, drag the fight out as long as possible and pull out the victory in the final rounds. History says that the more experienced fighter with better positioning and control is likely to win the fight. But if Silva destroys Brenneman the way he has destroyed his first two opponents, he will be officially announcing his arrival as a factor in the welterweight division.
Josh Neer vs. Mike Pyle
What a great way to start the main card. Neither of these fighters will ever compete for a UFC title but they have both been fixtures in MMA for years with Pyle debuting in 1999 and Neer coming along four years later in 2003. Both have improved immensely in their time in the sport and have consistently provided fans with high level entertaining fights. They are both well-rounded with the ability to finish from any position. Old school fans will be looking forward to this fight as much or more than any other fight on the card aside from the main event.
Mike Pyle is 5-3 in his most recent UFC stint including a TKO victory over Richard Funch in his last appearance. He landed a big right hand followed by a knee that dropped Funch. He then pounced and landed a few more strikes to stop the fight. That kind of finish is unlikely against the absurdly durable Neer. Pyle will more than likely need to beat Neer for fifteen minutes if he wants to earn the victory. He has the stand up game to compete with Neer on the feet and fifteen minutes of striking would be a treat for the fans. But the more likely route to victory would be to put Neer on his back and use grappling to control the fight. Even from there, Neer will still be dangerous and Pyle will need to be wary of submissions. And getting Neer to the mat won’t be easy either. If Pyle can’t get the takedown, look for him to step back and try to win the fight with his kickboxing.
Josh Neer is one of those fighters who seems to be incapable of being in a boring fight. He tries to finish from every position and has the skill set to do so. He was released from the UFC after back to back losses in 2009 but earned his way back in with four consecutive wins in 2011 and has now won back to back UFC fights including an impressive first round submission of Duane Ludwig in January. Ludwig was winning the fight on the feet as would be expected but Neer was able to land a takedown and caught Ludwig in a guillotine as he attempted to get back to a standing position. Expect him to try to keep the fight standing against Kyle as he should have the advantage. But he won’t be afraid to grapple with Pyle and this fight could end up showcasing all aspects of MMA. Neer needs to be careful of spending too much time on his back looking for submissions as the judges will not look favorably on that if the fight goes to a decision. He has the ability to win wherever the fight goes but his most likely road to victory takes place in the striking game.
Pyle comes into this fight as the favorite at -190 with Neer the underdog at +165. Once again, I’m surprised at the gap in these lines as Neer has a legitimate chance to win this fight. Pyle should be able to use his wrestling to get Neer on the ground but whether or not he can keep him there could determine who wins the fight. Neer will look to land damaging shots on the feet and catch a submission if the fight ends up on the mat. If Kyle can avoid those attempts and control the pace of the fight, he can earn the victory. If not, Neer could walk away with another upset.
