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UFC 148 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen The headliner for UFC 148 is one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. The first title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen was a classic and the.

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

The headliner for UFC 148 is one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. The first title fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen was a classic and the storylines have only continued to grow since then. Sonnen has served as the provocateur for the rivalry between these two with his constant verbal attack through any media outlet that will broadcast or print his increasingly impressive arsenal of trash talk. Until recently, Silva has played the role of the professional fighter remaining calm and promising to do his talking in the octagon. But that changed in the last few weeks as Silva has either joined into to the promotion efforts or genuinely snapped after two years of listening to Chael’s undeniably creative ranting. Either way, the entertainment value leading up to this fight is the best since Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz set the standard for MMA rivalries.

When breaking down a rematch, the most important thing to look at is the first fight. The first fight between Sonnen and Silva was one of the greatest in UFC history and probably was the greatest come from behind victory in UFC history considering the stakes. It cannot be understated how significant Sonnen’s control of the fight was up until the moment Silva locked up the triangle that saved his belt late in the fifth round. Every round played out exactly the same with Sonnen aggressively closing the distance on Silva with punches and pushing him up against the cage before landing a takedown. I’m not often shocked by what I see in a fight but I will never forget having to admit to myself in about the third round that Chael Sonnen was outstriking Anderson Silva. Silva obviously has the advantage in technique and the margin is about equal to the length of the wall in China. But Sonnen was relentless and never gave Silva a chance to settle into a rhythm, which resulted in Silva maybe landing one or two off balance shots as Sonnen was rushing him and landing combinations. Sonnen then used that pressure to get Silva off balance and put him on his back. From there, Sonnen focused more on maintaining control rather than finishing and hammer fisted his way to an unquestionable four round to zero lead. The fifth round started exactly the same as the others. By this time, I was actually squatting on my haunches six inches in front of the TV because I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. And then, out of nowhere, Silva slipped his legs around Sonnen’s neck. Sonnen seemed caught off guard and failed to defend until it was too late. Even more surprisingly, he panic tapped almost immediately and never gave himself a chance to escape. He tapped like it was a training session. He seemed to suddenly realize that he was minutes away from the most important victory of his career and tried to pretend he didn’t tap but he had and in a span of about ten seconds, Anderson Silva went from a certain defeat to one of the most unbelievable victories in UFC history. If Silva was trying to crush Sonnen’s soul as pay back for all the trash talk, he couldn’t have come up with a better way to do it.

That leads us to this fight. Anderson Silva is a smart fighter and he trains at one of the best camps in the world. He will learn from his mistakes in the first fight. But Sonnen is also a smart fighter and he also trains at one of the best camps in the world. The pressure is on him to come up with a strategy that will be as successful as the one he employed in the first fight. If he employs the same strategy, he will likely find himself hurt by Silva’s pinpoint counterstriking ability, which he will have undoubtedly been honing in his camp for this fight. Sonnen’s aggression caught the champion by surprise in the first fight but he will be prepared for it this time. Sonnen will likely have to come up with a new way to set up his takedowns if he wants to achieve a similar level of success as he did in the first fight. And if he does, expect Silva to be more aggressive with submission attempts in the earlier rounds. Sonnen has been susceptible to triangles and armbars throughout his career and Silva has the jiu-jitsu skills to lock up Sonnen if he leaves an opening. But Sonnen should be drilling those fundamental defensive grappling skills hard in his camp so Silva may have to work harder if he wants to find that opening.

The odds on this fight currently have Silva favored at -290 with Sonnen the underdog at +240. Silva is clearly the favorite and the line is appropriate but the possibility exists that Sonnen’s skill set is the kryptonite for the middleweight champion. Most people thought Frankie Edgar’s split decision victory over BJ Penn was a fluke and that Penn would dominate in the rematch. It took ten full rounds for Edgar to convince the MMA world that he was better than the legend. That’s probably not an entirely fair analogy because Chael Sonnen is much more of a known entity now than Frankie Edgar was heading into his fights with BJ Penn. But the point remains that no one should be completely stunned if Sonnen is able to do exactly what he did in the first fight and then continue that for the three minutes it would have taken to earn a victory the first time around. He has proven that he can beat Anderson Silva and if he does, it can’t be considered a fluke. But the more likely outcome is that Silva harnesses all the energy and motivation he has displayed in the last week and releases it in one devastatingly accurate strike on Sonnen’s face. Either way, if this fight can find a way to live up to all of the hype, the MMA community will be in for an exciting and possible even historic night.

Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

Fight fans love trilogies and as the warm up for the night’s main event, the UFC is giving us a third fight between veterans Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz. Realistically, this is probably not going to be a great fight. But this is the type of fight that makes enough sense from a historical perspective to outweigh what the actual quality of the fight might be. Both of these fighters have earned their place in the history of the UFC. Tito Ortiz is one of the original stars of MMA and has done as much to increase its popularity as any other individual fighter. Forrest Griffin took part in the critical mass moment for the UFC when he fought Stephan Bonnar on the original Ultimate Fighter finale. Both are former champions in the 205 pound division. They have fought each other twice before with each earning a split decision victory. Both men might retire after the fight. For all of those reasons, this fight makes sense and deserves second billing on a major card.

As far as the actual fight analysis, we’ve already seen this fight twice. Tito Ortiz is a solid wrestler whose striking and jiu-jitsu have improved greatly over the course of his career. His greatest asset has always been his ground and pound and he will look to utilize it in this fight. Forrest Griffin generally prefers to keep his fights standing but he too is capable on the ground. Expect to see all areas of the game explored in this fight. Expect to see both fighters on their backs at some point. Expect to see both fighters land strikes on the feet. Basically, expect more of what we saw in their first two fights. The fight will likely be decided by who can gain an advantage in where the fight takes place. If Ortiz can land enough takedowns and do some damage from top position, he’ll earn the victory. If Griffin can keep the fight standing, he will have the striking advantage and he’ll earn the victory. This is a classic “who can impose his will” type of situation.

Forrest Griffin comes into this fight as the significant favorite at -320 and Ortiz is the underdog at +260. Griffin deserves to be the favorite but I’m not sure why the line is so far in his favor. Ortiz is perfectly capable of winning this fight. These two men have fought a total of six rounds and three of those have been scored for Ortiz so he’s capable of taking two out of three on Saturday night. That said, Griffin should be able to use his defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing and strike his way to a decision victory. But if Ortiz can land his takedowns, the complexion of this fight will change drastically.

UFC 148 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote In a matchup clearly designed for entertainment, fan favorite Cung Le will face veteran Patrick Cote. Strikeforce tried to make Cung Le a superstar. They tried to sell his san.

Cung Le vs. Patrick Cote

In a matchup clearly designed for entertainment, fan favorite Cung Le will face veteran Patrick Cote. Strikeforce tried to make Cung Le a superstar. They tried to sell his san shou background and his wrestling background and his acting credentials. But the reality is that he’s a forty year old fighter with a 7-2 career record and no significant wins. He lost in his last fight against Wanderlei Silva, which proves he is not an elite fighter at middleweight. The UFC knew this when they brought him over from Strikeforce and they are using him to generate exciting fights against fighters who will be willing to stand with him. Enter Patrick Cote. Cote gets a chance to defeat a name fighter in his return to the octagon after being let go following three consecutive losses to Anderson Silva, Alan Belcher and Tom Lawlor. In hindsight, that release may have been premature given the emergence of Belcher.

This fight is not complicated to analyze. It will take place mostly on the feet. Le will employ all of the kicks and spinning techniques fans expect from him. He will use his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing if Cote decides to strike. Le has the technical ability to keep Cote at a distance and outstrike him. He even has the power to finish the fight if he can land a clean combination. But Cote has never been finished via KO or TKO and I don’t expect Cung Le to do what Anderson Silva couldn’t. Cote will more than likely also want to keep the fight standing. He is a more traditional striker but that doesn’t make him any less of a threat. The power in his right hand is more dangerous than any single strike Cung Le possesses. He comes into this fight on a four fight winning streak outside of the UFC and he will be looking to use Cung Le as a step toward once again competing at the top of the middleweight division.

The oddsmakers currently have Cote favored at -245 with Le the underdog at +205. I’m not surprised to see Cote favored but I am slightly surprised at the margin. That said, Cote is the more experienced and probably more dangerous fighter. His striking is good enough to neutralize Le’s unorthodox style and earn the victory either via (T)KO or decision. If Le wants to earn the upset, he will need to utilize movement and keep Cote guessing and moving backward. Either way, this should be an entertaining fight between two dangerous strikers.

Dong Hyun Kim vs. Demian Maia

In a matchup of upper level middleweights, Dong Hyun Kim will face Demian Maia as both men look to move up the ranks at 185 pounds. Kim has won six of his seven fights in the UFC excluding his fight with Karo Parisyan that was ruled a no contest after Parisyan tested positive for PEDs. Maia has struggled recently losing two of his last three fights in the UFC.

Maia has been a fixture in the UFC middleweight division for years having risen as far as a title fight with Anderson Silva. He was outclassed badly in that fight and has been up and down since then with wins over Mario Miranda, Kendall Grove and Jorge Santiago and losses to Mark Munoz and Chris Weidman. He seems to struggle when he faces the higher level of competition with his most impressive wins coming against Chael Sonnen and Dan Miller. He still possesses some of the most dangerous jiu-jitsu in the world at any weight class but his opponents have been able to neutralize that by refusing to play the ground game with him. His standup has improved over the last few years but is not at a level where he can win a striking match against a top level fighter. He will likely struggle to get Kim to the ground in this match and will need to take advantage of any opportunity he gets to grapple. More than likely, most of this fight will take place on the feet and that does not bode well for Maia. His grappling is by far the most dangerous weapon either fighter brings to the cage but unless Kim allows him to utilize it, Maia will likely be stuck in another striking match.

Dong Hyun Kim has only one official loss on his professional record and that came against Carlos Condit who is one of the best middleweights in the world. That said, Kim has yet to earn a signature victory with his biggest win coming against Amir Sadollah. Maia represents an excellent opportunity to earn a victory over a well respected middleweight and take a step up in the division. Kim was a knockout artist in Korea but that has not translated over to his UFC career as he has won all of his fights by decision. His striking is solid but not excellent and he has the defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing. He obviously has the power to finish with his strikes but has not been able to show it thus far in the the UFC. A finish against Maia would be a major statement but a decision is much more likely. He will need to keep the fight standing because even though he is competent on the ground, no one is safe against Damien Maia and he would be foolish to play that game. If he follows the appropriate gameplan and keeps the fight standing, he is capable of outstriking Maia to earn the victory.

Kim comes into the fight as the favorite at -145 with Maia the underdog at +125. The line is appropriate and this fight seems to have a clear script. Maia is always a threat if the fight goes to ground but I see no reason why Kim would allow that to happen. If the fight stays on the feet, Kim will have the advantage and he should be able to land more cleanly on his way to a decision victory.

UFC 148 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part III

Chad Mendes vs. Cody McKenzie In a clear mismatch of UFC featherweights, former title contender Chad Mendes will face MMA’s favorite one trick pony, Cody McKenzie. This fight barely even warrants a breakdown. Mendes is.

Chad Mendes vs. Cody McKenzie

In a clear mismatch of UFC featherweights, former title contender Chad Mendes will face MMA’s favorite one trick pony, Cody McKenzie. This fight barely even warrants a breakdown.

Mendes is one of the best 145 pound fighters in the world. His only loss came in his last fight against Jose Aldo who is one of the top pound for pound fighters in MMA. Mendes relies on his excellent wrestling and control to grind his way to victories. Eight of his eleven victories have come via decision. He keeps things simple and continues to show improved striking with every appearance. McKenzie has made a career out of his much celebrated modified guillotine choke. He used it to win all of his fights on the Ultimate Fighter as well as his last fight against Marcus LeVesseur. But whenever he has fought higher level competition such as Vagner Rocha, Yves Edwards and even Nam Phan, he has not been able to compete and was finished by all three fighters. Chad Mendes trains with one of the best camps in the world at Team Alpha Male and one of their specialties is guillotines. He will not allow McKenzie to attack his neck and this will be a great opportunity for him to earn a finish.

Mendes is favored at –600 with McKenzie at +450 and quite honestly, that line could move even further in favor of Mendes. This is not a close fight and while anything can happen in MMA, no one can reasonably expect McKenzie to win. He has one route to victory and if he locks up that choke, he could pull off the upset. But the much more likely course for this fight would be Mendes dominating McKenzie and eventually earning the victory via TKO due to ground and pound.

Ivan Menjivar vs. Mike Easton

The UFC will kick off its blockbuster UFC 148 card with a bantamweight matchup between two veterans in Ivan Menjivar and Mike Easton. Both fighters started their professional careers around the same time but Menjivar is perceived to be the more experienced fighter with thirty two professional fights to Easton’s thirteen. Both fighters are also riding multi-fight win streaks in the UFC since the introduction of the bantamweight division with Menjivar winning three in a row and Easton winning two. However, both are coming off less than impressive victories.

Menjivar is the more well-rounded fighter with the ability to finish the fight on the feet and on the ground. He is most dangerous in the submission game but often hurts his opponents with strikes before pouncing for the finish. At age thirty, he is still capable of making a run in the 135 pound division but he will need to improve on his recent form is he hopes to do that. In his most recent victory over John Albert, Albert actually appeared to be the better fighter and dominated the first three minutes of the fight before burning himself out attempting to finish. Menjivar was able to take advantage and earn the victory via rear naked choke when his exhausted opponent gave up his back and was unable to defend. If he wants to defeat Easton, he’ll need to improve significantly over that performance.

Easton has spent the majority of his career fighting in smaller organizations taking two separate two year breaks from MMA. Easton is an explosive athlete with huge power in his hands. He has made a career of overpowering his opponents and either finishing with punches or grinding his way to a decision. He will have a power and athleticism advantage against Menjivar but will probably be at a technical disadvantage in almost every area. Like his opponent, Easton also earned a less than impressive victory in his last outing with a split decision win over Jared Papazian. Two judges scored the fight in favor of Easton but the third round was so close that either fighter could have legitimately been scored the winner. If he approaches this fight with a similarly basic gameplan of standing and hoping to land his huge right hand, he could be in trouble because Menjivar is more dangerous than Papazian and has the power to put him in trouble.

The bookmakers currently have this line as a straight up pick ‘em with both fighters at -115. This fight will come down to who really wants to be a factor in the UFC bantamweight division and whose camp comes up with the better gameplan. Menjivar has the technique to outpoint Easton on the feet and threaten him on the ground. But Easton’s power could be too much for Menjivar to handle. If Menjivar moves in and out and defends the takedown, he can win this fight on the feet. But if he allows Easton to gain and maintain top position, look for Easton to grind his way to victory.

UFC 148: Who Spilled the Pro Wrestling in My MMA?

Anyone who, like me, grew up on pro wrestling in the eighties has realized by now that Dana White is some sort of bizarre hybrid between Vince McMahon and a legitimate professional athletic commissioner. And as we head into this week’s UFC 148 card, his brain must be buzzing as both aspects of that persona are watching a dream scenario unfold. Every pro wrestling promoter knows the most important part of creating an explosive main event is creating a dramatic back story involving two characters that force fans to pick a side. For the uninitiated, that scenario traditionally involves a heel (bad guy) and a babyface (good guy).

Going into UFC 148, Chael Sonnen is clearly the heal. In real life, he may not actually be the biggest asshole in the world but at this point, it doesn’t even matter because he has become his character. He has let an endless stream of arrogant guarantees interspersed with blatantly disrespectful trash talk ooze out of him throughout his rivalry with Anderson Silva. On top of that, he was suspended after the first Silva fight for having elevated levels of testosterone. If Sonnen ever gets tired of putting his body in jeopardy in the octagon, he could take his gimmick to the WWE and not have to change a thing.

On the other side of this middleweight title matchup is the ideal babyface. Again, I’m not really sure if Anderson Silva is Bruce Lee reincarnated but it doesn’t matter because he too has become his character. Silva is a martial artist. He’s a family man. He respects the traditions of the sport. He does nothing but train hard, say his prayers and eat his vitamins. He already defeated Sonnen once and still Sonnen antagonizes him. Finally, Silva has snapped. Now he is threatening Sonnen. And who can blame him. Even a peaceful warrior must eventually stand up to a bully and that moment has now arrived.

We have our heel. We have our babyface. All we need now is a back story. And as you may have heard, these two men have fought before. In typical pro wrestling fashion, the heel beat the face around the cage for twenty three straight minutes. The fight seemed over. Sonnen was dominating. But in an instant, the whole course of the fight changed. Silva slapped on a triangle, Sonnen panic tapped, tried to pretend he didn’t and then realized that he just lost the biggest fight of his life.

On Saturday night, we get to see the rematch that was inevitable from the moment Sonnen felt Silva’s spider legs pressing against his arteries. I expect the atmosphere to be one of the most electric in MMA history. If I was Dana White, I would hire Gorilla Monsoon for one night just so he could say, “You can cut the electricity with a knife!” Only the most professional, detached and potentially non-human observers will be watching this without at least a slight rooting interest.

My brain is well aware that Chael Sonnen is not the person he portrays himself to be to sell fights and Anderson Silva isn’t a real life version of the ninja from the NES Ninja Gaiden series. Both men are great athletes looking to test their skills at the highest level of combat sports and Sonnen is doing everything he can to make both men as much money as possible. And normally, that would be my mindset for watching a fight. But for some reason, this matchup brings back those pro wrestling days and I’m going to choose to suspend my disbelief for one evening. I’m going to buy what the hype machine is selling me and I’m going to enjoy every minute of it.

UFC on FX 3 Post-FIght Analysis

Demetrious Johnson put an end to the controversy on Saturday night by clearly winning two of the three rounds in his rematch with Ian McCall to determine who will face Joseph Benavidez to become the.

Demetrious Johnson put an end to the controversy on Saturday night by clearly winning two of the three rounds in his rematch with Ian McCall to determine who will face Joseph Benavidez to become the first UFC flyweight champion. Johnson established the pace in the first round much in the same way he did in the first fight. Just like in the first fight, the most significant moment of the first round was a right hand. But this time, the punch dropped McCall instead of just wobbling him. Johnson also controlled the wrestling in the first round scoring an early takedown and stuffing all of McCall’s attempts to bring the fight to the mat. McCall came back strong in the second round managing to complete several takedowns. And although he was unable to keep Johnson down, just the threat of the takedown was enough to change the tone of the fight in the striking game and McCall was able to land more significant strikes. One of the judges awarded that round to Johnson for some reason but both of the other judges scored it for McCall, which was the proper scoring. Going into the third round, the fight was even but Johnson left no room for dispute as he clearly controlled the striking and scored the only takedown of the round. He landed several combinations and McCall became visibly frustrated as the round continued. By the end of the round, the outcome was obvious and Johnson clearly established himself as the fighter who deserves to compete against Benavidez for the title. The two battles between Johnson and McCall have set a high level of expectation for the title fight and if the five rounds between Benavidez and Johnson are anything like the six rounds between McCall and Johnson, the MMA community is certainly in for a treat. For McCall, this loss is a setback but he is still obviously one of the the best 125 pound fighters in the world and more than likely, he will get his chance to fight for the belt at some point.

Earlier in the night, Erick Silva made it clear that he has to be considered a factor in the welterweight division as he proved to be too big and too explosive for Charlie Brenneman. Silva landed a knee early as Brenneman shot in for a takedown. Brenneman realized immediately the type of power he was facing and from that point on, he was desperate to get the fight to the mat. He succeeded several times but was unable to keep Silva down and his efforts always seemed to be delaying the inevitable. Silva stayed patient and waited for the right opportunity to explode on Brenneman. After the referee restarted the fight out of a stalemate against the fence, Silva landed a spinning back kick to the gut and followed it with another body kick. The kicks hurt Brenneman and he attempted a sloppy shot that resulted in him being turtled with Silva on his back. Silva slipped in his hooks and locked his arm under Brenneman’s neck with little resistance and earned the submission victory via rear naked choke. Silva never landed cleanly to Brenneman’s head but just the glancing blows and kicks to the body were enough to break Brenneman’s will. Silva will definitely face a stiff step up in competition in his next appearance and he has earned it with three first round finishes in his UFC career thus far. The only part of his game that hasn’t been tested is his cardio and it would be interesting to see what would happen if a stronger fighter employed Brenneman’s strategy and was able to draw Silva deeper into the fight. For right now, Silva is a fighter with a high ceiling and with the depth in the UFC welterweight division, we’ll soon find out how high that ceiling is.

In the second fight on the main card, Mike Pyle earned the most surprising result of the night. The win itself wasn’t a surprise but you could have won some serious money betting that he would finish the exceptionally durable Josh Neer with a first round one punch knockout. Pyle opened the fight exactly the way one would expect by taking Neer to the mat and trying to control him on the ground. And Neer responded by doing exactly what he always does in that position staying active with his guard and cutting Pyle with an elbow from his back. Neer managed to stand up and got after Pyle with his classic attack style of body punches, dirty boxing and standing elbows. Pyle seemed to be significantly hurt to the body as Neer pushed him back against the cage and looked for an opportunity to finish. In the middle of that assault, Pyle landed a clinical overhand right directly the jaw of Neer and knocked him out. Neer fell face down on the mat and Pyle walked away with one of the more impressive victories of his career. Pyle, now age thirty six, has won five out of six fights and while he’ll never be a championship contender, the UFC should be able to find him several more interesting fights. Neer will need to win in his next fight or he may once again find himself on the way out of the UFC, which is unfortunate because his fights are always entertaining.

Eddie Wineland opened the card by announcing that he is back as a serious contender in the bantamweight division. The defensive wrestling he worked so hard to perfect for his fights against Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez is now fully incorporated into his arsenal and with that accomplished, he was able to let his strikes flow freely just as he did earlier in his career. He came out aggressive from the opening bell against Scott Jorgensen and didn’t slow down until he finished the fight. He dropped Jorgensen in the first round with a counter jab establishing that he still has some of the best power in the division. He repeatedly stuffed his opponent’s takedown attempts as well and kept the fight in a standing position. Jorgensen was more competitive in the second round landing several good strikes and cutting Wineland in two places including a huge gash over the left eye. Wineland seemed initially distracted by the blood flowing into his eye but quickly adjusted and began to once again take the advantage in the striking game. He even managed to take down the former PAC-10 wrestling champion. The fight seemed to be turning into a classic three round brawl where both fighters would trade combinations but Wineland’s power proved to be too much for Jorgensen as he dropped him with a right hand and pounced to finish with ground and pound. The 135 pound title is currently tied up in an interim fight between Faber and Renan Barao and the winner of that fight will likely immediately face champion Dominic Cruz to unify the title. Possible opponents for Wineland after this victory could include Brian Bowles, Michael McDonald or Barao if he loses to Faber. For Jorgensen, this outcome definitely represents another step back. One interesting matchup for him going forward would be with Miguel Torres as both would be trying to rebound from recent losses. Whatever happens, this was a huge statement by Eddie Wineland.

UFC on FX 3 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

McCall vs. Johnson Five years ago, I wasn’t sure whether the UFC audience would ever evolve to the level where a fight between 125 pounders could headline a card. On Friday night, we’ll find out.

McCall vs. Johnson

Five years ago, I wasn’t sure whether the UFC audience would ever evolve to the level where a fight between 125 pounders could headline a card. On Friday night, we’ll find out if we’ve reached that point. This fight has every storyline needed to sell a main event. Demetrius Johnson and Ian McCall are two of the best fighters in the world at their weight. They fought in March on the UFC on FX 2 card and battled to one of the most bizarre results in UFC history. The fight was announced a split decision victory for Johnson but upon reexamination of the cards after the fight, someone was outed as not having the first grade math skills to add up the judges scorecards. The fight had actually been scored a draw. Had everyone’s math skills been in order at the end of the fight, that result would have resulted in a sudden victory fourth round. Instead, we get a rematch to determine who moves on to face Joseph Benavidez for the right to be the first ever 125 pound champion in UFC history. I’m sure the fourth round in March would have been exciting television but three more rounds between these two can’t be considered anything other than a win for the fans.

In so many ways, these fighters are startlingly similar. Both have wrestling backgrounds and are explosive athletes. Both have used that explosive athleticism to develop excellent striking skills. Both move fluidly through transitions in all positions and neither is easy to contain for any period of time. The first fight was so even that it was nearly impossible to score. Johnson had a slight edge in the striking exchanges in the first round but McCall countered with two takedowns. Johnson managed to land a right hand that briefly staggered McCall and on my scorecard, I used that as a tiebreaker to give the first round to Johnson. The second round was where the judging ran into problems. If a 10-10 round was ever fought, that was it. But under the 10 point must system, someone has to win the round. I gave it to Johnson based on literally nothing other than a completely subjective feeling. The third round was the most dominant round for either fighter with McCall taking Johnson’s back and nearly finishing him with ground a pound. And this is where the 10 point must system went from being a problem to basically being a farce. If we follow the system exactly, that was a 10-9 round for McCall and based on my card, Johnson should win the fight. But that’s ridiculous because McCall was infinitely more dominant in the third than Johnson was in the second. So I, being a judging rebel, made the third round a 10-8 round for McCall so that it would be a draw, which is exactly what one of the judges at the event did. And I applaud him for it. Unfortunately, the person adding up his card apparently needs a calculator to handle two digit addition and we now find ourselves in this position.

According to Vegas, Johnson is a -150 favorite at the moment with McCall at +130. I’d like to know how they arrived at those lines. As far as I can see, this is a classic pick ‘em fight. These fighters are absurdly well-rounded with their strengths being in the same areas. I expect to see a similar fight to the one we saw in March. Johnson will be slightly better in the striking exchanges with McCall barely coming out ahead in the grappling. The only way either fighter will be able to gain a clear advantage is if McCall can get Johnson to the ground and somehow keep him there, which seems unlikely. If I start looking deeper for advantages, Matt Hume is one of the best coaches an in MMA. He has an entire three rounds of fight tape to study and develop a gameplan for Johnson to utilize. Team Oyama where McCall trains is a great camp but nobody other than Greg Jackson has the mind for the sport that Matt Hume has. Johnson will absolutely have the perfect strategy going into the fight. Whether or not he can execute it will be determined at fight time. Anyone willing to say that either fighter is a clear favorite didn’t watch the first fight closely enough. The only sure thing is that on Friday night, we will get a winner to face Joseph Benavidez for the title. But don’t be surprised if the outcome leaves fans calling for a trilogy.

Eddie Wineland vs. Scott Jorgensen

Both fighters will be looking to rebound from losses in their last UFC appearance in this battle to see who can earn their way back into title contention. Eddie Wineland has lost his last two fights to Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez while former WEC bantamweight champion Scott Jorgensen lost in his most recent fight against phenom Renan Barao.

Despite back to back losses, Wineland cannot be dismissed. Both of those fights were against the highest level of competition. Faber will be fighting for the interim 135 pound title in his next fight and Benavidez awaits the winner of the main event to determine the 125 pound champion. Wineland was competitive in both fights and while he lost decisively, he was not dominated. He greatly improved his wrestling going into the Faber fight and continued that improvement into the Benavidez fight. However, he was unable to translate his defensive wrestling into offensive attacks. He seemed so focused on sprawling and defending against takedowns that he was not nearly as aggressive with his striking as he had been in previous fights. Wineland is one of the better strikers in the division and needs to let his hands go if he is going to find success against Jorgensen. After his last two performances, he should be confident enough in his defensive wrestling to let his striking game flow knowing that his instincts will allow him to sprawl if Jorgensen shoots. For Wineland to earn the victory, he needs to combine the defensive ability he showed in his recent fights with the offensive ability that he has displayed throughout his career. If he can do that, his opponent could be in for a long night.

Jorgensen is also coming off a loss to a top tier fighter. Renan Barao will be fighting Urijah Faber in the aforementioned interim bantamweight title match. Losing to Barao is nothing to be ashamed of but if Jorgensen expects to get back into title contention, he needs to defeat Wineland. As a former champion, Jorgensen has all the skills to get back to that level and a win on Saturday night would be the first step in that direction. Jorgensen has an excellent collegiate wrestling background and has been successful putting most opponents on their backs although he did struggle with Barao. But the real improvement in his game in recent years has been in his striking and look for him to show off those skills against Wineland. Expect him to be willing to stand with Wineland for as long as he feels comfortable. If he begins to feel threatened or if Wineland starts to seize an advantage, that’s when we could see the takedowns come into play. Jorgensen should have an advantage in that area and if he can’t control the fight on the feet, he should be able to control it on the mat.

Jorgensen is the clear favorite going into this fight at -210 with Wineland at +175. That line seems about right as a victory for Wineland would definitely be an upset. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Wineland will need to keep the fight standing and outstrike Jorgensen, which he is capable of doing. But if he shows the same tentative approach on the feet that he’s showed in recent fights, Jorgensen will pick him apart. And even if he brings his best striking into the cage, Jorgensen should be able to mix in some wrestling to work his way to victory.